- The global economy picked up in the first quarter of 2013 after weakening at the end of 2012, driven by resilience in emerging economies. Growth is expected to be slow but steady in the US and Canada, and improving in Japan, while the eurozone recovery will likely take longer. - Unemployment is falling in the US and consumer spending is rising. Japan implemented fiscal stimulus and monetary easing to spur growth. However, the eurozone remains in recession, with high unemployment, especially in Greece and Spain. - Inflation remains generally subdued across advanced economies. Commodity prices were mixed in the first quarter. Financial markets were buoyant despite concerns around fiscal problems in advanced nations.

1. Africa & Global Economic Trends
Quarterly Statistical Review
Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013
Contents
1 | World Economy
1.1. |
1.2. |
Economic growth &
unemployment
Inflation and financial
developments
2 | Africa in the World Economy
2.1. |
2.2.
2.3.
2.4.
2.5.
|
|
|
|
Economic growth
Focus: Ghanaian economy
Merchandise trade
Commodity trends
Inflation & money supply
Financial indicators
3 | Data sources and descriptions
At a glance
A
fter a weak ending to the year 2012,
Continuing shocks emanating from the eurozone,
the global economy picked up during
including the aftermath of Cyprus’s recent sove-
the first months of 2013, driven by
reign debt crisis, have acted as a rein on the glo-
resilience in emerging economies. The outlook
bal recovery. World trade growth of 2.0% in 2012
for the first half of 2013 is for a return to slow but
was down sharply compared to the 5.2% recor-
steady growth in the United States and Canada,
ded in 2011. Despite this, transmission to African
and an improving outlook in Japan. In Europe a
economies has been tempered by more intensive
meaningful recovery is likely to take longer.
financial and trade linkages between the continent and other economically dynamic regions.
Generally,
the
performance
of
emerging
economies remains much more robust than that
The importance of countries such as China, Bra-
of advanced countries, although with significant
zil, and India as trading partners, export destina-
variations across regions. Business confidence
tions, and sources of investment in Africa is
has generally improved since the start of the
Global economy : business confidence (monthly develogrowing. Africa’s merchandise exports todata)
year, supported by improvements in equity
42% of total exports, compared to 28% in 2005.
54,862
There has been a marked shift toward Asia as an
44,770
below 50, which is the borderline between
39,724
export destination, which accounted for 25% of
34,678
expansion and contraction.
Steve Kayizzi-Mugerwa
Director, Development Research
Department, (EDRE)
s.kayizzi-mugerwa@afdb.org
+216 7110 2064
1,2
total export flows in 2011, compared to just 16%
08
09
10
11
12
13
49,816
-1,2
-2,5
-3,7
29,632
-5,0
in 2005.
Global economy : business confidence
(monthly data)
5,00
Global economy : business confidence (monthly data)
70,000
64,954
Africa : Merchandise exports by destination
(shere in %)
2,50
15
10
12
3,75
59,908
9
6
6
1,25
54,862
49,816
Victor Murinde
Director, African Development Institute
(EADI)
v.murinde@afdb.org
+216 7110 2075
2,5
59,908
confidence weakened in March and remains well
Charles Leyeka Lufumpa
Director, Statistics Department (ESTA)
c.lufumpa@afdb.org
+216 7110 2175`
3,7
ping economies in 2011 accounted for almost
64,954
markets in particular. In the eurozone however,
Mthuli Ncube
Chief Economist & Vice President
(ECON)
m.ncube@afdb.org
+216 7110 2062
5,0
70,000
0
44,770
3
-1,25
39,724
2
34,678
-2
-6
-3,75
29,632
08
09
10
11
12
13
-9
-5,00
2008
2009
2010
2012
2011
15
1 876,75
6
3
12
6,25
0
1 253,50
-3
This brief was prepared by Louis Kouakou (Statistician, ESTA1), Anouar Chaouch (Statistical Assistant, ESTA1) under
10
the supervision of Beejaye Kokil, (Manager, Economic & Social-6Statistics Division, ESTA.1).
For access to development data on African countries, -9
please visit the AfDB Data Portal Web Site at:
-12
http://intranet.afdb.org/statistics or the Statistics Least developed economies
8
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Department Web Site: www.afdb.org/statistics
6
2009
10,00
12
6,25
2,50
-12
2008
10,00
914
14
-6
2 500,00
12
10
0
-3
-2,50
2010
2011
2012
2013
2,50
630,25
7,00
-1,25
-5,00
30,00
18,75
15
1,7500000000000000
1,6250000000000018
7,50
14

2. 2 | Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013
? World Economy
Economic Growth ...
?
1.1 - World economy : economic growth & unemployment
Gradual recovery in global economy
Economic developments over the past 12 months have been bumpy, punctuated by
slowing real activity in advanced economies, large swings in investor sentiment, amid
periods of relative calm and improving prospects. Output inbusiness confidencehalf of data)
Global economy : the second (monthly 2012
70,000
was constrained, buffeted by a noticeable slowdown in emerging markets and developing economies. However, the pace 64,954the global economy picked up in the first
of
59,908
quarter of 2013 from the lows posted at 54,862
year-end 2012. Global activity is evolving at
a three-speed pace. Growth is regaining 49,816
strong momentum in emerging economies;
44,770
Global economy : business confidence (monthly data)
activity picking up substantially in the US, Canada and Japan; but the eurozone is
39,724
70,000
34,678 investor confidence and weak consumer
experiencing stagnation, reflecting a lack 64,954
of
29,632
demand triggered by stringent austerity59,908
measures undertaken in 11
many 12
countries.
13
10
09
08
54,862
Taking these factors into account, global output is forecast to increase by 3.3% in
49,816
44,770
2013, driven mainly by 5.3% GDP growth in emerging and developing economies.
Graph 1. Advanced economies / GDP growth (Quarterly
data, % change on previous quarter)
5,00
2,50
6
1,25
0
2
5,00
-1,25
10
3,75
-2,50
-2
2,50
-3,75
6
1,25
-5,00
20
2
Global economy : business confidence (monthly data)
-1,25
70,000
-2,50
15 64,954
-3,75
12 59,908
54,862
-5,00
9
49,816
6
44,770
3
39,724
0
15 34,678
-3 29,632
12
-6
9
-9
6
-12
3
34,678
-6
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
0
39,724
29,632
In the US, economic figures for the first quarter of 2013 were stronger than expec13
11
09
08
ted. Unemployment is falling gradually, consumer spending 10 increasing 12
is
and sales
of new and previously owned homes are performing well. Nonetheless, the federal
government’s fiscal difficulties could weigh on growth later in the year, as an increase
in payroll tax and cuts in federal spending start to take hold. Political gridlock in the
US may be easing, which could open the way for more targeted measures to be introduced to support the recovery. The Federal Reserve has signaled that its most recent program of quantitative easing will not be withdrawn, but as the economy picks
up, transitioning to a less accommodative policy stance could prove challenging.
The IMF is forecasting real GDP growth of just below 2% for the US in 2013.
10
3,75
-2
2 500,00
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
-6
20
1 876,75
Graph 2. Emerging economies / GDP growth (Quarterly
data, % change on same quarter of previous year
1 253,50
2 500,00
13
12
11
10
09
08
630,25
1 876,75
7,00
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
0
1 253,50
-3
-6
Lagging recovery in the eurozone
14
10,00
12
6,25
30,00
-12
1,5000000000000037
18,75
2,50
10,00
7,50
30,00
-1,25
6,25
-3,75
18,75
Graph 3. Harmonized unemployment rate (% of active
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
population)
-5,00
2,50
1,3750000000000055
1,1250000000000092
1,0000000000000111
0,8750000000000129
15,000
0,7500000000000147
2013
2012
2011
2009
In Japan, a new government has prioritized a sizable fiscal 2010
stimulus package and a
9,375
more accommodative monetary policy as a way to spur economic growth and trade.
Investors have watched the yen weaken by around 20% against the dollar since
mid-2012. This has led to warnings by3,750 US Treasury that Japan should refrain
the
15,000
from “competitive devaluation” of its currency. Such an approach renders Japanese
-1,875
goods (e.g. automobiles) more attractive in the global marketplace compared to
9,375
goods from competitor nations such as South Korea. The WEO (April 2013) projects
-7,500
growth of around 1.5% for Japan in 2013.
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
3,750
-1,25
12
150
-5,00
6,25
140
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
130
10
-15,00
110
8
100
150
90
140
80
6
130
70
120
60
110
15
10
-1,25
2009
2010
2009
2010
2011
2011
2012
2012
2009
2010
2011
2012
5
20
0
-5,00
15
-5
10
2013
2013
5
100
90
80
1,7500000000000000
70
1,6250000000000018
15,00
60
1,5000000000000037
2009
0
40
-5
2010
2011
2012
2013
30
1,3750000000000055
6,25
1,2500000000000074
20
40
1,1250000000000092
-2,50
1,0000000000000111
15,00
10
30
0,8750000000000129
-11,25
6,25
0,7500000000000147
2009
-20,00
-2,50
2009
2010
2011
2012
2010
2011
2012
2013
2013
20
10
15,000
2008
20
2,50
-20,00
-7,500
7,50
-3,75
-11,25
-1,875
-15,00
10,00
14
120
In addition to declining manufacturing output, average unemployment in the euro1,2500000000000074
zone has hit 12%. Figures from the Eurostat show that the overall unemployment rate
1,7500000000000000
1,1250000000000092
in the 17-member currency union has1,6250000000000018 since February 2012, when the
risen steeply
1,0000000000000111
1,5000000000000037
rate was 10.9%. Across the wider, 27-country EU the total number of jobless is a re0,8750000000000129
1,3750000000000055
0,7500000000000147
cord 26.3 million. In Greece, the youth unemployment rate is nearing 60% while in
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
1,2500000000000074
Spain it is 56%.
7,00
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
In the fourth quarter of 2012, GDP in the eurozone contracted by 0.6% after a decline of 0.1% in the previous quarter. The decrease in exports exerted a drag on
10
14
GDP growth, while domestic demand remained depressed. During the first quarter
of 2013, both business and consumer 8confidence in the eurozone remained sub12
dued in the face of disappointing economic figures. Although the German economy
showed positive growth in the first quarter, the downturn in the rest of the eurozone
6
2013
2012
2011
appears to be intensifying. According to10the 2009 only one of the big four economies
IMF, 2010
– Germany – can expect to see positive growth in 2013, at just 0.6%. This is wea8
ker even than the forecast for the UK. France is expected to follow last year’s zero
growth with a contraction of 0.1%, while Italy and Spain will see growth slump by
1,7500000000000000
around 1.5% in 2013. For the advanced 6countries of Europe as a whole, the WEO’s
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
1,6250000000000018
projected real GDP growth figure for 2013 has been revised downward to -0.3%.
Fiscal stimulus measures in Japan
630,25
-9
9,375
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

3. Global economy : business confidence (monthly data)
49,816
2
44,770
-1,25
70,000
3,75
39,724
64,954
-2,50
59,908
-3,75
54,862
2,50
-2
49,816
-5,00
-6
34,678
08
12
11
10
09
1,25
Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 | 3
13
29,632
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
44,770
0
-1,25
39,724
-2,50
34,678
-3,75
29,632
15
13
12
11
10
09
08
12
2
-5,00
9
1
6
3
? World Economy
Inflation and financial developments ...
?
0
15
12
-3
1.2 - World economy : inflation and financial developments
-6
5,00
Inflation generally subdued
10
08
09
1,25
10,00
0
4. Inflation / Consumer prices (monthly data, %
change on same month of previous year)
9
0
1,7500000000000000
Buoyant financial markets
2,50
-1,25
150
2009
-6
-5,00
2013
2012
2011
2010
130
110
-12
100
1,7500000000000000
2008
630,25
150
7,00
2012
2011
2010
2009
140
90
1,6250000000000018
130
80
1,5000000000000037
70
1,3750000000000055
60
10,00 1,2500000000000074
2009
120
110
2013
2012
2011
2010
30,00
1,1250000000000092
18,75
0,8750000000000129
2,50
-5,00
2009
2013
2012
2011
2010
6,25
15,000
9,375
70
7,50
-3,75
15,0
-2,50
-15,00
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
90
60
0,7500000000000147
15,00
-1,25
100
80
6,25 1,0000000000000111
6,2
-11,25
Graph 6. Stock market indexes (January 2010 = 100)
-2,5
-20,00
3,750
150
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
140
15
130
-1,875
120
110
-7,500
100
20
-11,2
-20,0
10
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
5
90
0
-5
60
The first quarter of 2013 saw investors return in large numbers to equity markets, as
a reaction to low interest rates and a shift away from bonds. Equity markets continue to hit new highs, but the rally remains narrow and is mostly driven by the US and
Japan. The S&P 500 is now just a few points off its all-time high. The remarkable re15,000
silience shown by the US economy to weather the fiscal cliff headwinds is boosting
investors’ confidence in US equities,9,375
which are outperforming their global counterparts.
1 253,50
Graph 120 Exchange rates (US$ per national currency)
5.
2009
2013
2012
2011
2010
1 876,75
-9
0,7500000000000147
2009
2 500,00
-15,00
2
70
0,8750000000000129
2
-3,75
140
80
1,0000000000000111
7,50
-6
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
8
6
18,75
6,25
-3
1,6250000000000018
6
The US dollar continued appreciating against major currencies in March 2013, gai3,750
2013
2012
2011
2010
ning 3.0% on the euro and 1.7% against2009 Japanese yen. The appreciation of the
the
US dollar against the yen continued after the BoJ’s monetary stimulus announce-1,875
ment, which led to a monthly average parity of ¥94.752 per US dollar in March. Whether the dollar continues to strengthen against other currencies will depend on a
-7,500
1,7500000000000000
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
number of other indicators, including the jobless numbers, in the months ahead. Re1,6250000000000018
cession in the eurozone has weakened the single currency, leading in March 2013
1,5000000000000037
to an average exchange rate of €1 = US$1.2963. The recession in Europe has les1,3750000000000055
sened the pressures that drive inflation – such as the demand for energy, while high
1,2500000000000074
unemployment has kept a lid on wage rises.
1,1250000000000092
2012
2011
2010
2009
6
3
30,00
10,00
12
-1,25
10
15
-5,00
12
-9
-12
-2
-3,75
14
2,50
-5,00
In most advanced economies, low underlying inflation rates allow headroom for monetary policy action to accelerate recovery. In the US, inflation eased in March to
6
2012
2011
2010
2009
1.5%, down from 2.0% in February; this was largely due to lower gasoline 2013
prices.
Core inflation also edged down to 1.9% in March, from 2.0% in the previous month.
In the eurozone, inflation fell marginally to 1.8% in the first quarter of 2013, compared to 2.3% in the fourth quarter of last year.
-6
6
2
-1,25
6,25
-2,50
8
9,375
0
10
-3
2008
China posted a 2.1% inflation rate in March, down from a 10-month high 3.2% in February. February’s spike was caused by 1,5000000000000037food spending due to the Lunar
increased
1,3750000000000055
New Year holiday. China’s leadership has targeted annual economic growth at 7.5%
1,2500000000000074
and inflation at 3.5%. The Bank of Japan has adopted an aggressive monetary sti1,1250000000000092
mulus approach, by committing to inject1,0000000000000111 1.4 trillion into the economy in
about US$
less than two years. By so doing, it aims to end nearly two decades of stagnation
0,8750000000000129
14
and raise inflation to 2%. One measure it has taken is to abandon interest rates as
0,7500000000000147
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
a target and become the only major central bank to focus primarily on the monetary
12
base – the amount of cash in circulation. To achieve its target, the BoJ will purchase
more government bonds and other types of assets. Moreover, the average maturity
10
on purchased securities will rise to seven years from the previous three years. The
15,000
announcement of this measure led to a 3% depreciation of the yen against the US
8
dollar while yields on the 10-year government bond plummeted to a record low.
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2,50
Graph
13
12
11
10
3
-12
3,75
34,678
29,632
6
-9
The slowdown in emerging economies during 2012 reflected slackening manufacturing output due to decreasing orders fromGlobal economy : economies, combined with
advanced business confidence (monthly data)
70,000
domestic monetary policy tightening. The first quarter of 2013 saw a slowing of
64,954
China’s growth to 7.7%, missing forecasts for 8% year-on-year growth, with mining
59,908
54,862
14
stocks significantly hit. Nonetheless, with consumer demand resilient and exports re49,816
viving, most regions of Asia, Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to
44,770
12
maintain strong growth in 2013.
39,724
1
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
4
15,00
3
6,25
2
-2,50
3,750
1
-11,25
-1,875
-20,00
2009
-7,500
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2010
2011
2012
2013

4. 4 | Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013
World Economy
? World Economy
Financial Indicators ...
?
1.3 - WORLD ECONOMY: Summary of world statistics
Table 1 : Real GDP Growth
Country
(seasonally adjusted data)
2011
2012
2013
f
2011 Q.3
% change on previous year
2011 Q.4
2012 Q.1
2012 Q.2
2012 Q.3
2012 Q.4
% change on previous quarter
1.8
2.2
1.9
0.3
1.0
0.5
0.3
0.8
0.1
-0.6
2.0
1.6
2.5
0.1
1.5
-0.2
-0.9
0.0
Eurozone
1.4
-0.6
-0.3
0.1
-0.3
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.6
France
1.7
0.0
-0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
-0.3
Germany
3.0
0.7
0.6
0.4
-0.1
0.5
0.3
0.2
-0.6
0.4
-2.4
-1.5
-0.1
-0.8
-0.9
-0.7
-0.2
-0.9
United States
Japan
Italy
% change on previous year
% change on same quarter of previous year
China
9.4
7.8
8.0
9.7
9.1
8.1
7.6
7.4
7.9
India
7.7
4.0
5.7
7.2
5.6
4.7
4.0
3.4
3.9
Brazil
2.7
0.9
3.0
2.2
1.4
0.7
0.4
0.9
1.4
Russia
4.3
3.4
3.4
4.6
5.2
4.3
4.3
3.3
2.4
2011 Q.3
2011 Q.4
2012 Q.1
2012 Q.2
2012 Q.3
2012 Q.4
2013 Q.1
Table 2 : Inflation
(consumer prices, %)
Country
2011
2012
% change on same quarter of previous year
% change on previous year
3.2
2.1
3.8
3.3
2.8
1.9
1.7
1.9
Japan
-0.3
0.0
0.1
-0.3
0.3
0.2
-0.4
-0.2
China
5.4
2.6
6.3
4.6
3.8
2.9
1.9
2.1
India
8.9
9.3
9.2
8.4
7.2
10.1
9.8
10.1
United States
1.7
-0.6
2.4
11.7
2.7
2.5
2.7
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.5
2.3
1.8
France
2.3
2.2
2.3
2.6
2.6
2.3
2.3
1.7
1.1
Germany
2.5
2.1
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.1
2.1
2.0
1.5
Italy
2.9
3.3
2.7
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.4
2.6
1.9
2012
2011 Q.3
2011 Q.4
2012 Q.1
2012 Q.2
2012 Q.3
2012 Q.4
2013 Q.1
Eurozone
(HCP)
Table 3 : Financial indicators
Country
2011
Stock markets
(end of period quotes)
USA (S&P 500)
1257.6
1426.19
1131.42
1257.6
1408.47
1362.16
1440.67
1426.19
1569.19
Japan (Nikkei 225)
8455.4
10395.18
8700.29
8455.35
10083.56
9006.78
8870.16
10395.18
12397.91
U.K (FTSE 100)
5572.3
5897.8
5128.48
5572.28
5768.45
5571.15
5742.07
5897.81
6411.74
Europe (Eurotop)
2100.86
2324.9
1917.77
2100.86
2209.3
2114.33
2241.99
2324.9
2431.37
Hong Kong (HSI)
18434.4
22656.92
17592.41
18434.39
20555.59
19441.46
20840.38
22656.92
22299.63
56754
60952
52324
56754
64511
54355
59176
60952
56352
0.742
0.763
0.780
0.799
0.771
0.758
Brazil (BVSP)
Exchange rates
(national units per US-Dollar, period average)
Euro
0.719
0.778
0.706
Yen
79.8
79.8
78.2
77.3
79.3
80.1
78.6
81.3
92.3
Yuan
6.46
6.31
6.42
6.34
6.31
6.31
6.33
6.30
6.28
Interest rates
(% per annum, period average)
United States
2.786
1.803
2.427
2.047
2.037
1.823
1.643
1.707
1.950
Japan
1.102
0.836
1.024
1.024
0.962
0.850
0.779
0.751
0.650
Eurozone
4.312
3.053
4.282
4.200
3.653
3.443
2.897
2.220
2.765
Chief Economist Complex, ECON
4

5. 0
8
-1,25
49,816
44,770
39,724
-2,50
6
-3,75
34,678
5 | Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 29,632
- Volume 13 - April 26, 2013
09
08
10
2
-1,25
11
12
13
-2
-5,00
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
-5,00
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2 500,00
14
12
1,6250000000000018
13
9
1,5000000000000037
2.1 - AFRICA: Economic growth
6
1,3750000000000055
3
1,2500000000000074
0
1,1250000000000092
-3
1,0000000000000111
-6
Economic Growth ...
?
10
1 253,50
9
8
630,25
7
6
0,7500000000000147
-12
2009
2009
2008
Economic growth in Africa remained robust at 4.6% in 2012, despite the slowdown
in the global recovery. Africa’s resilience is linked to continued momentum in emer14
ging economies, the continent’s attractiveness as an FDI destination, robust domestic demand, ongoing investment in infrastructure, and activation of new capacity
12
in the extractive sectors. This overall positive performance is though far from uniform across the continent, as domestic factors – including monetary policy tightening (Kenya and Uganda), protracted 10
labor disputes (South Africa), and political
unrest (Egypt, Tunisia, Mali, and Guinea Bissau) – have impeded growth in a num8
ber of African countries.
6
The continent’s strong performance during 2012 was largely due to high commodity
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
prices and an increase in private capital flows, particularly to the natural resources
sector, in the form of FDI. Exports grew strongly in the first half of the year; however
a sharp deceleration of industrial commodities and oil exports occurred in the second
half of 2012. Tourism, an important driver of growth for many countries, remained ro1,7500000000000000
1,6250000000000018
bust with a high level of arrivals in many of the traditional destinations, including
1,5000000000000037
South Africa, Kenya, and Madagascar. However, the North African countries of Tu1,3750000000000055
nisia and Egypt, whose economies also rely heavily on the sector, are struggling to
1,2500000000000074
win back holidaymakers – particularly tourists from the austerity-hit eurozone – some
1,1250000000000092
two years after the sociopolitical unrest of the Arab Spring erupted.
20102010
2011
30,00
9,375
18,75
3,750
7,50
-1,25 -1,875
-3,75
6,25
2,50
6,
-2,
-11,
-20,
-5,00 -7,500
2008 2010
2009
2009 2011
2010 2012
-15,00
2011 2013
2012
150
20
140
15
130
120
10
110
5
100
90
0
80
0,8750000000000129
South Africa's GDP growing at a lackluster pace
-5
60
0,7500000000000147
2012
2009
2013
In South Africa, negative domestic factors reined in economic growth at a lackluster
2.5% in 2012, down from 3.5% in 2011. Despite forecasts of a contraction in the
fourth quarter of 2012, real economic growth seasonally adjusted picked up by
15,000
0.5%, after a revision of the third quarter figures to roughly 0.3%, after industrial action in the mining sector had taken its toll. Mining sector real value added contrac9,375
ted further in the fourth quarter of 2012 as a number of gold and platinum mines
lost output due to strike activity. By contrast, agricultural output rose as livestock
3,750
production held up fairly well over the period.
15,
15,000
70
2011
7,00
2013
2012
2011 2012
Graph 7. GDP growth for selected countries (quarterly
data, % annual change )
10,00
1,0000000000000111
2010
12
1 876,75
11
0,8750000000000129
-9
Strong growth overall, despite mixed country performances
2009
20
15
1,7500000000000000
15
? Africa in the World Economy
-6
2010
2011
2013
2012
Graph 8. Manufacturing production
(monthly data, % annual change)
40
15,00
30
6,25
20
-2,50
10
-11,25
-1,875
The manufacturing sector in South Africa saw real output increase in the final quarter of 2012, supported by continued demand from emerging economies and im-7,500
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
proved competitiveness due to depreciation of the rand. However, indicators are
more muted for the first quarter of 2013 – with a dip in consumer confidence and manufacturing output slowing. South Africa’s economy is forecast to grow at a muted
2.75% in 2013, owing to the slowdown in mining production and the weakness of
demand in the eurozone, which is its main export market.
-20,00
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Pressures on fiscal and external stability in Tunisia and Egypt
Tunisia shares many of the same problems as Egypt: a high level of unemployment
particularly among the youth; food and oil subsidies that represent a drain on go5,00
Global economy : business confidence (monthly data)
vernment finances; and sociopolitical fragility in the aftermath of the Arab Spring.
3,75
Major international ratings agencies have downgraded Tunisia and Egypt’s sove2,50
reign credit ratings with a negative outlook, citing acute political, economic, and se1,25
curity strains. Tunisia’s trade is particularly vulnerable to the eurozone crisis, as
0
recession-hit France and Italy represent its largest export markets. Egypt’s negotia-1,25
tions to secure an IMF loan of US$ 4.8 billion have stalled.
-2,50
Graph 9. North Africa - GDP growth
(quarterly data, % annual change )
10
9000
6
6187
2
3375
-2
562
-3,75
08
13
12
11
10
09
However, the IMF has reached a framework agreement with Tunisia on a two-year,
-5,00
2012
2009
2008
US$1.75 billion standby loan deal, which is awaiting final approval 2010 the2011 board
from
IMF
of directors. The aim of the loan is to support the implementation of the government’s reform program to promote private investment, foster sustainable job-crea15
tion, reduce economic and social regional12disparities, and strengthen social policies
9
to protect the most vulnerable.
6
-2250
-6
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2 500,00
6
1 876,75
4
1 253,50
3
630,25
1
3
0
-3
-6

6. 6 | Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013
5,00
Global economy : business confidence (monthly data)
10
9000,0
6
6187,5
3,75
2,50
1,25
0
? Africa in the World Economy
Global economy : business confidence (monthly data)
00
54
62
16
70
24
78
32
08
2.1 - AFRICA: Economic growth
-2,50
3,75
Africa in the World Economy
13
12
11
10
-3,75
2,50
09
08
08
2
-1,25
5,00
-5,00
1,25
large currency depreciation, which-3 may give rise to higher
15
-6 12
inflation. Many of these economic characteristics are evident in
Egypt and Tunisia and require the 9
-9 implementation of fiscal
adjustment measures.
-12 6
2
2010
2009
0000018
2009
0000037
0000055
0000074
0000092
0000000000
0000111
0000000018
0000129
0000000037
0000147
0000000055
0000000074
0000000092
0000000111
2013
Table 4 : Real GDP growth
(%)
Egypt
5
2009
2010
Ghana
2012
2011
Kenya
0
Mauritius
5
2011
Namibia
2008
Graph 11. West Africa : industrial production (quarterly
7,50
data, % annual change )
2009
2010
2011
2012
30,00
10
18,75
6
-15,00
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2010
2012
2011
2011 Q.3
2012
20
6
-15,00
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
10
5
0 20
-5 15
12
11
10
09
08
07
10
5
0
4000
07
3000
2011 Q.4
2000
2012 Q.1
10
09
08
6.1
3.7
3.3
7.6
5.4
1.8
4.4
0.3
0.4
5.2
15.9
10.3
2009
15.0
-2,50
-11,25
-20,00
2010
7.9
2012 Q.2
4000
2011
2012
14.1
2013
4.4
4.7
3.8
4.9
3.2
3.5
3.3
4.0
2.2
3000
0
2000
5.3 2009
2.4
2010
5.4
2012 Q.4
5.0
2011
2012
5.3
4.9
2.8
2013
10.4
5.5
3.1
3.3
2008
3.2
4.3
2009
3.2
2010
4.9
2011
1000
0
9.1
7.0
3.5
4.6
…
3.7
2012
6.0
2.9
3.0
4.9
2012 Q.3
…
2.3
2008
11.5
2.9
2009
0.7
2010
2.0
4.3
7.8
6.5
7.4
7.7
6.2
6.3
6.5
8.3
8.0
11.9
8.4
7.0
9.4
6.9
8.7
Senegal
2.1
3.8
6.1
-1.7
2.0
3.1
3.7
2012
2011
7.0
Rwanda
5.2
2.3
3.5
2.5
3.2
3.0
2.4
2.8
2.6
Tanzania
6.4
6.9
5.9
6.5
7.1
6.9
6.5
…
Tunisia
-2.0
3.6
-1.5
-1.4
4.6
2.1
3.5
4.0
Uganda
4.8
6.6
5.8
-0.1
2.7
5.3
8.2
10.1
Chief Economist Complex, ECON
12
11
% change on 1000 quarter of previous year
same
6,25
-20,00
18
10
-3,75
2013
22
14
7,50
Nigeria
South Africa
14
-3,75
-11,25
Morocco
0
18
6,25
-2,50
Botswana
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
15
% change on previous year
15,00
0
0
7,00
-5
2009
Country
2008
22
18,75
60
0000000147
2012
15
630,25
30,00
2013
45
30
1 253,50
15,00 70
2011
0
60
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Africa’s oil-exporting countries should continue to perform well, although expectaAfrica’s oil-exporting countries should110
continue to perform well,
tions need to be tempered on account of weakening globalaccount ofgrowth, which
although expectations need to be 100
tempered on economic
is depressing oilglobal economic growth, 90 150for the first quarter 2013 indicate that
weakening prices. Oil output estimates
which is depressing oil
prices. oil output estimates for OPEC members 2013 indicate
80
total crude Oil production in the four the first quarter (Algeria, Angola, Libya, and
140
that total crude oil production in 70
Nigeria) is roughly stabilizing. Recent falls the four OPEC members Brent crude
in130 price of oil have seen
the
(Algeria, Angola, Libya, and Nigeria) is roughly stabilizing.
60
120
dropping below US$ 100 per barrel for theseen time since July 2011
2012 and
2013
2012
2010
Recent falls in the price of oil have first 2009
Brent crude dropping West Texas
110
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Intermediate down to US$88.3 for the first time since July 2012 9% in the first half
below US$ 100 per barrel per barrel. This represents a fall of and
100
West Texas Intermediate down to US$88.3 OPEC may cut
of April 2013 alone. Some forecasters believe that per barrel. Thisproduction to
90
represents a fall of 9% in the first half of April 2013 alone.
80
shore up oil prices, although growth in oil demand cutlikely to continue from China.
is production to
Some forecasters believe that OPEC may
2010
15
1 876,75
7,00
2012
2011
120
2009
30
1 253,50
2 500,00
630,25
-5,00
Ghana’s economy during 2011-2012 is discussed in the Focus
2013
2012
2011
130 2009
2012
2011
2010
section below.
0000000129
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Nigeria, Africa’s main oil producer, saw its GDP growth increase to 7.0% in the fourth
Nigeria, Africa’s main oil producer, saw
quarter of 2012, up half a percent from 10,00 itsthe third quarter. Severe floods in the
6.5% in GDP growth increase
to 7.0% in the fourth quarter of 2012, up half a percent from
-1,25
country inin the third quarter. deaths of 363 people and displaced 2.1 million, with
6.5% mid-2012 led to the Severe floods in the country in mid6,25
major impacts not only to affected people and displaced 2.1 infrastructure and the
2012 led to the deaths of 363 populations, but also to million,
-5,00
with major whole. However, the implementation of power sector reform and reimpacts not only to affected populations, but also to
2013
2012
2011
2010
economy as a
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
infrastructure and the economy 2,50 a whole.
as
bound after the floods are expected toreform growth in However, theis now the seboost and rebound after the
2013. Ghana
implementation of power sector
cond biggest oil-producer in the continent after Nigeria, supplanting Angola in the
floods are expected to boost growth in 2013. Ghana is now the
-1,25
second biggest oil-producer in economy during 2011-2012 is
rankings. The dramatic rise of Ghana’sthe150 continent after Nigeria, discussed in
supplanting Angola in the rankings. The dramatic rise of
the Focus section below.
140
2010
-2250,0
45
-6
1 876,75
trend, reaching 5.2% in the fourth quarter, up from 3.7% in
the previous quarter.
2,50
0000000
562,5
60
-2
2 500,00
Steady
In Namibia, growthgrowth in the fourth quarter of 2012 accelerated by 4.3% compaGDP in oil exporters
0
red In 0.7% in the previous quarter. This rebound was brought about by Agriculture,
to Namibia, GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2012
-3
accelerated by 4.3% compared to 0.7% in value added, which
Mining and electricity, and water sectors -6real the previous quarter. increased by
This rebound was brought about by Agriculture, Mining and
10,00
-9
21.1%, 47.7%,and water sectors real value added, which increased output, Seelectricity, and 17.2% respectively. Despite moderating industrial
-12
negal’s21.1%, 47.7%, and 17.2%arespectively. Despite moderating fourth quarby GDP growth also showed bullish trend, reaching 5.2% in the 2011
2012
2010
2009
2008
6,25
ter, industrial output, Senegal’s GDP growth also showed a bullish
up from 3.7% in the previous quarter.
009
3375,0
Graph 10. Crude oil production for Opec members
(1000 barrel / day)
Steady growth in oil exporters countries
2008
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Severe political and social unrest, such as that0 experienced by Arab Spring countries,
-1,25
is generally accompanied by a sharp deterioration in macroeconomic outcomes.
15 -2,50
The recovery is often sluggish leading to 12
increased unemployment, lower domestic
accompanied by a sharp
andArab Spring 11countries, fiscal deficits.9 With declining reserves, high external vulforeign investment,12and is generally -3,75
13
10
09
deterioration in macroeconomic outcomes. The recovery is
-5,00
nerabilities sluggish to large currency depreciation, which2009 give rise to higher 2012
may 2010
in6
often can lead leading to increased unemployment, lower
2011
2008
domestic and foreign investment, 3 and fiscal deficits. With
flation. Many of these economic characteristics are evident in Egypt and Tunisia and
0
declining reserves, high external vulnerabilities can lead to
require the implementation of fiscal adjustment measures.
9000,0
562,5
6187,5
-2250,0
-6
2012
2011
2010
2009
3375,0
-2
6
2008
3
countries
Economic Growth ...
?
10
6

7. 2,50
6
6187,5
2
3375,0
-2
562,5
1,25
0
Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 | 7
-1,25
-2,50
-3,75
09
10
11
12
13
-5,00
2011
2010
2009
2008
2012
15
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2008
60
2 500,00
12
? Africa in the World Economy
-2250,0
-6
Focus (1/3) ...
?
9
3
0
1 876,75
45
1 253,50
Ghanaian economy
6
30
After a temporary slowdown in 2009, Ghana’s economy has witnessed a resurgence since 2010, expanding by 15% in 2011. De-6
15
630,25
cember 2010 marked the start of its oil production, which has delivered a massive boost to the economy. In recent years, exports
-9
have also been buoyed by high cocoa and gold prices. Construction and service activities, which now account for 50% of GDP, have0
-12
7,00
2011
2009
2008
also performed well. Supported by fiscal tightening2010
measures and2012
currency adjustments introduced in 2009, the country’s ma2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
croeconomic fundamentals have further strengthened. In 2012, the economy expanded at a steady rate of 7.9%, amid rising fiscal
and external imbalances. Momentum has continued into 2013, despite fading base effects from oil extraction. Fiscal and monetary
policies have succeeded in reining in inflation to single digits. Meanwhile, much remains to be done to achieve solid macroecono10,00
22
30,00
mic stability and sustainable economic development for the long term. The discovery of oil is at the same time an opportunity and
source of risk for Ghana.
6,25
18
18,75
-3
2,50
-1,25
10
-3,75
-5,00
The discovery of oil reserves, which positioned Ghana in second place after Nigeria
2013
2012
2011
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
in terms of oil production in Sub-Saharan Africa, has given a major boost to the nation’s growth prospects. The global economic crisis of 2008–2009 saw GDP growth
decelerate from 8.4% in 2008 to 4% in 2009. Indeed, the economy registered an
150
average annual growth of 4.5% between 2001 and 2010. However, the country’s
140
GDP growth of 8.0% in 2010 and 15% in 2011 was not solely due to its traditional
130
major exports of gold and cocoa. It was the discovery and the start of oil extraction
120
110
at the Jubilee field that fueled the strong economic performance of 2011.
2010
14
7,50
Economic growth boosted by oil sector
6
-15,00
08
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Ghana : GDP growth and sectoral contributions
(quarterly data, %)
2,00
20
1,75
15
1,50
10
1,25
5
100
In 2012, economic output is estimated to have expanded at a slower but steady
80
rate of 7.9%. As the contribution of industrial sector faded across 2012, due to the
70
60
vanishing of base drift effects from the oil sector, growth moderated from 9% in the
2011
2010
first quarter to just 6% in the last quarter 2009 2012. The growth 2012
of
pattern2013 also illusis
2013
2012
2011
2010
Graph 10. Crude oil production for Opec members (1000 barrel / day)
trated by the composite index of real economic activity, computed by Bank of Ghana.
This corroborates the deceleration across 2012, but with a moderate upturn at the
end of the year. Both business and consumer confidence indexes in January 2013
15,00
rebounded strongly, pointing to positive expectations and strengthening activity for
the year ahead.
6,25
1,00
90
2009
Algeria
Angola
Libya
Nigeria
2009
From the demand side, public and private consumption was stimulated by oil in-2,50
comes, the rise of the wages of public sector workers, and subsidies on fuel prices.
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
On the supply side, national income-11,25 boosted by high prices of raw materials –
was
especially oil, gold and cocoa, which increased export revenues. With the emer-20,00
gence of the oil industry, the value added of the industrial sector accounts for one2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
fourth of total GDP. 2012
2011
2010
Graph 11. West Africa : industrial production (quarterly data, % annual change )
Ghana’s exports of crude oil for the year 2012 surpassed cocoa in terms of value.
The percentage share of total exports was: cocoa at 20.7%, oil at 23%; with gold still
in first position at 54.2%. The contribution of the services sector to GDP growth remains decisive. According to Ghana Statistical Service, the services sector accounted for about 45.5% of GDP in 2012, thanks to the dynamism of the
telecommunications and trade sectors.
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
08
0
0,75
-5
09
08
07
10
12
11
0,50
140,
4000
120,
100,
3000
80,
61,
41,
2000
21,
1000
Ghana: Economic activity (monthly composite index)
0
400,0000
2008
2012
2011
2010
2009
333,0545
266,1090
199,1636
132,2181
65,2726
-1,6729
08
09
10
11
12
2,
-17,

8. -1,25
8 | Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013
-5,00
2013
2012
2011
2010
10
-3,75
6
-15,00
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2,00
150
00
20
140
18
? Africa in the World Economy
55
74
120
100
11
Ghanaian economy (continued)
60
2009
0,50
12
11
10
09
08
07
2013
2012
2011
2010
Ghana : Main exports (quarterly data, current US$)
Despite the rise in oil exports, Ghana’s current account continues to post a high deficit, mainly due to the deterioration in the trade balance. The current account com15,00
ponent of the balance of payments amounted to -12.64% of GDP in 2012, according
to the IMF. Total merchandise imports amounted to US$17.7 billion in 2012, an in6,25
crease of 12.1% over 2011. Non-oil imports grew by 13.9% to US$14.4 billion, while
oil imports grew moderately by 5%. -2,50
4000
3000
2000
1000
These developments resulted in a trade deficit of US$4.2 billion in 2012, compared
-11,25
with US$3.1 billion in 2011. Imports will continue to grow at a rapid pace in line with
the dynamism of domestic demand and the oil sector requirements in capital goods.
-20,00
2012
2011
2010
2009
Servicing the current 2012
account deficit will hinge on strong capital inflows,2013
including
2011
2010
2009
foreign direct investments in the oil sector and bond purchases by nonresident investors. The overall balance of payments therefore recorded a deficit of US$1.2 billion in 2012, reversing the surplus of US$546.5 million achieved in 2011.
08
0,75
-5
Current account 2012 2013 remains healthy 2009
balance
2011
2010
0
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Ghana : Public finance (millions of GH çedi)
The balance of services and incomes will10also continue to weigh on the current account deficit, mainly through the repatriation of dividends by nonresident investors,
in spite of a positive but modest contribution from current transfers.
6
00
75
50
9000,0
6187,5
25
10
Raising public deficit
0
25
6
,50
2
9000,0
3375,0
-2
6187,5
562,5
Provisional data on Ghana’s public finances and the execution of the budget during
2012 showed that total revenue and grants increased by around 30%, compared to
2
-6
2012
2010
2009
2008 the previous year, on2011
account of higher revenue from petroleum taxes and an in2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
-2
crease of 20.6% on a year-on-year basis in value added tax collection. The improved performance of import duty was attributed to a number of factors including
2 500,00
-6
increased imports, improvements in import valuations, and the cedi depreciation du2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
ring the year. Government spending in 2012 was equivalent to 35.2% of GDP and
1 876,75
recorded 56% growth. On a year-on-year basis, recurrent expenditure grew by
64.6%.
2 500,00
1 253,50
,75
,00
3375,0
-2250,0
-2250,0 60
2008
45
30
2013
2012
2011
2010
0
22
7,50
18
14
7,50
-15,00
120
14
10
6
08
2012
2011
2010
2009
20
90
15
80
10
70
60
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2,00
1,50
2,00
1,25
5
1,75
1,00
0
1,50
0,75
-5
12
11
10
09
08
07
5
2011
2012
2013
1,25
0,50
13
12
11
10
09
08
1,00
0,75
-5
2010
13
12
11
10
09
1,75
0
2009
13
12
11
10
09
08
10
100
12
11
10
09
10
15
130
110
12
11
10
09
08
6
2008
20
140
15,00
22
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
-15,00
2013
2012
2011
2010
0
18
-3,75
150
009
15
08
18,75
-3,75
2009
30
15
18,75
30,00
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
45
Ghana : Monetary survey (monthly data, year on year
change in %)
1 876,75
Furthermore, non-interest payments accounted for 76.3% of the recurrent expendi630,25
ture. These high non-interest payments were driven mainly by personnel emoluments
1
and 2009
transfers, which 2011
together accounted 253,50 7,00
for 82.3% and 71.9% of non-interest ex2012
2010
2012
2011
2010
2009
penditure and domestic revenues respectively. These developments resulted2013 a
in
630,25
budget deficit equivalent to 12.0% of GDP against a target of 6.7% of GDP and
compared to a deficit equivalent to 4.0 % of GDP in 2011. The deficit was financed
7,00
2012
2011
2010
2009
largely from domestic sources. Ghana’s 30,00 public debt rose to 46.0% of GDP in
total 2009
2013
2012
2011
2010
December 2012 from 34.4% of GDP in December 2011.
2008
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
562,5
60
4000
07
08
09
10
11
12
1,25
1,00
0
70
47
Focus (2/3) ...
?
5
80
29
1,50
10
110
90
92
1,75
15
130
37
08
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
0,50
140,000
120,328
08
09
10
11
12
13

9. 2
5
9000,0
-2250,0
-6
6
6187,5
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2
60
562,5
-2
? Africa in the World Economy
2012
2011
2010
2009
45
1 876,75
Ghanaian economy (continued)
2012
2011
2010
2009
20081 253,50
630,25
2010
2011
2012
7,00
1 876,75
2011
2010
2009
2012
45
2013
In mid-2009, Ghana faced high inflationary pressures and a fall in the value of the cedi
1 253,50
against major currencies. This threatened public and external balances and required
adjustment policies under the Extended Credit Facility granted by the IMF. Since
30,00
630,25
then, the situation has improved. However, after posting single-digit inflation in 2011
and 2012, the inflation rate rose to 10.4% in March 2013. Inflationary pressures in18,75
7,00
2012
2011
2009
clude2010 pass-through effect of a previous2009
the
surge in producer prices, combined with
2013
2012
2011
2010
public sector wage increases, and a sharp increase in government domestic borro7,50
wing.
30,00
-3,75
At the start of 2013, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Ghana maintai-15,00
ned its2011
policy rate at 15%, after successive rises introduced during 2012. The cen18,75
2013
2012
2010
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
tral bank’s Governor sees a broadly positive growth outlook for 2013, underpinned
by private sector credit expansion, improved business and consumer sentiments
7,50
and increased oil production in the last quarter of 2012. The BoG may need to tigh20
ten its monetary policy to keep inflation below its target rate of 8.5%.
-3,75
15
Pressures2012 exchange rate easing
on 2013
2011
-15,00
2010
30
15
0
Ghana : Inflation and interest rate (monthly data, %)
15
22
0
18
22
18
10
6
5
The Bank of Ghana has mounted a defense of the cedi, consisting of aggressive in4000
terest rate hikes, as well as micro and0macro prudential measures. Exchange rate
tensions are likely to persist in 2013 due to 3000 balance of payments deficit and unthe
-5
12
11
08
07
certainties about the level of capital outflows of equities and 09
debt. 10
2013
2012
2011
2010
2,00
10
1,75
1,50
13
12
11
10
09
1,25
Ghana : Exchange rate of GH çedi
1,00
(local currency per US$, monthly average)
2,00
12
0,75
1,75
0,50
08
1,50
09
10
11
12
13
1,25
140,000
1,00
120,328
0,75
100,656
80,985
0,50
61,313
08
13
12
11
10
09
41,641
2000
0
21,969
5
4000
0
3000
09
13
14
5
2009
12
11
10
09
08
08
In 2012, the cumulative depreciation of the cedi for the year stood at 17.5%, com0
pared to 5% depreciation in 2011. The Ghanaian cedi has been put under pressure
20
-5
from both domestic and external factors. Domestic factors include the surge in im11
10
09
08
07
15
ports and2011
loose 2012
fiscal and monetary policies, while external factors include global
2013
2010
risk aversion which favors safe haven 10
currencies like the dollar.
12
11
10
09
08
14
2012
2011
2010
2009
12
11
10
09
08
6
2008 10
2012
2011
2010
2009
30 2008
60
Inflationary pressures emerge in the first quarter 2013
2009
Focus (3/3) ...
?
-2250,0
-6
2 500,00
2008
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
3375,0
2 500,00
009
0
2012
2011
2010
2009
562,5
Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 | 9
-2
10
2008
3375,0
2009
2010
2011
2012
140,000
2,297
120,328
1000
-17,374
2008
100,656
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2012
2009
2010
2011
80,985
61,313
41,641
2000
21,969
2,297
1000
-17,374
2008
0
2008
2010
2011
2012
2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2009
2010
2011
2012
2012

10. 2013
2012
6
-15,00
13
12
11
10
09
08
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
10 | Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013
2,00
20
1,75
15
1,50
10
1,25
v
? Africa in the World Economy5
2.2 - AFRICA: Merchandise trade
-5
2011
2012
2013
07
08
09
World trade volume forecast to grow by 3.3% in 2013
10
11
12
0,75
0,50
0
Trade among developing countries has seen a significant rise over the past decade
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
and now represents more than 50% of all developing country trade. Even excluding
2013
2012
exports to China, trade among developing countries has been very robust. East Asia,
South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa are the regions where this South–South trade
grew fastest, though at a lower rate in countries that have preferential trade agreements with high-income economies.
13
12
11
10
09
08
Graph 12. World merchandise imports (Volume
2005Q1=100)
140,000
In 2012, world trade volume growth slumped to 2.0%, from 5.2% in 2011. Accor4000
ding to the WTO, world merchandise trade is expected to remain sluggish in 2013
at around 3.3%, as the economic slowdown in the eurozone and high unemployment
3000
dampen import demand. The abrupt deceleration of trade during 2011 and 2012 is
bound up with the uneven global recovery, and the slowdown in advanced econo2000
mies. In 2012, exports of developing economies grew by 3.3%, while imports of
these countries grew by 4.6%. This is a much stronger performance than that of the
1000
advanced economies, which saw their imports decline by 0.1%.
2011
Foreign Trade ...
?
1,00
0
120,328
100,656
80,985
61,313
41,641
21,969
2,297
-17,374
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Graph 13. Africa - Merchandise exports (Values in current
US $, year to year % change)
60
4 000
50
Merchandise imports of African countries decelerated over the course of 2012
3 750
3 250
3 000
60
50
0
40
-10
30
2 750
10
-20
20
South Africa’s results for 2012 were less impressive, recording a significant fall of
11% in merchandise exports over the year. Notable decreases in inventories were registered in the mining and manufacturing sectors, with production setbacks partly
met by running down stock levels. This contributed to a broadly unchanged volume
of exports in the final quarter of the year, with a recovery in mining exports – especially iron ore and coal – countered by a decline in exports of manufactured goods.
The volume of imports receded moderately in the final quarter of 2012, weighed
down largely by lower imports of vehicles and transport equipment.
3 500
30
20
After seeing its exports shrink by 8.5% in 2011, Africa rebounded in 2012 to record
the fastest export growth of any region, at 6.1%. Africa’s imports grew by 11.3%,
making it the only region to record double-digit growth.
40
10
4 000500
2
3 750250
2
2
3 500000
1
3 250750
-30
1
3 000500
-40
2 750
0
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
-20
2 000
1 750
60
15,00
-30
-40
1 500
35
11,25
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Graph 14. Africa - Merchandise imports (Values in current
10
US $, year to year % change)
60
7,50
15,00
3,75
-15
However, the value of merchandise imports in South Africa increased over the period, largely due to a significant depreciation of the rand. This also underpinned an
increase in the rand value of exports. Despite a moderate deterioration in the terms
of trade, there was a slight narrowing of the trade deficit from the third to the fourth
quarter. Simultaneously, the deficit on the services, income and current transfer account contracted marginally, causing the current account deficit to decrease to 6.5%
of GDP and this approximate level is expected to be maintained in 2013.
2 500
2 250
-10
35
11,25
0
-40
-15
2010
2009
2008
10
2011
2012
7,50
3,75
300
275
35
250
-40
030
225
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
25
200
20
175
15
300
150
275
125
35
100
30
250
225
200
5
75
25
50
2011
2010
2009
2012
2013
175
20
10
125
5
100
0
75
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
0
-5
15
150
50
10
-5
140
130 2009
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
2010
2011
2012
2013
15
12
9
6
15 3
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
12 0
9
6
3

11. Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 | 11
Africa in the World Economy
? Africa in the World Economy
Foreign Trade ...
?
2.2 - AFRICA: Summary of trade statistics
Africa in the World Economy
Table 5 : Merchandise trade for selected African countries
2011 Q.1
Country
(%)
2011 Q.2
2011 Q.3
2011 Q.4
2012 Q.1
2012 Q.2
2012 Q.3
2012 Q.4
% change on same quarter of previous year
Exports
Country
Algeria
11.1
27.0
36.7
29.1
12.5
1.2
-3.9
-7.7
Mauritius
19.9
19.2
11.6
9.2
5.8
4.0
2.3
1.5
Morocco
30.6
27.0
19.3
11.4
29.1
1.6
12.5
-3.1
-2.4
-1.3
Nigeria
Mauritius
38.3
19.9
43.9
19.2
35.2
11.6
23.6
9.2
6.7
5.8
0.9
4.0
-5.0
2.3
-5.8
1.5
Tanzania
Morocco
33.0
30.6
24.4
27.0
11.8
19.3
8.5
11.4
13.4
1.6
19.1
-3.1
26.2
-2.4
21.6
-1.3
Tunisia
Nigeria
14.4
38.3
12.9
43.9
9.3
35.2
1.9
23.6
-4.6
6.7
-7.1
0.9
-6.9
-5.0
-3.7
-5.8
Algeria
11.1
27.0
36.7
1.2
-3.9
-7.7
Imports
Algeria
Tunisia
19.9
14.4
20.0
12.9
16.4
9.3
4.9
1.9
-0.9
-4.6
-4.9
-7.1
1.6
-6.9
6.3
-3.7
Mauritius
16.3
20.2
15.7
12.7
9.7
5.4
-1.2
-3.8
Algeria
Morocco
19.9
21.2
20.0
29.0
16.4
25.0
4.9
15.6
-0.9
5.4
-4.9
-1.6
1.6
-2.0
6.3
-1.8
Mauritius
Nigeria
16.3
34.9
20.2
31.9
15.7
26.1
12.7
-0.1
9.7
-4.1
5.4
-11.4
-1.2
-8.8
-3.8
-2.1
Morocco
Tanzania
21.2
23.3
29.0
33.9
25.0
45.3
15.6
41.6
5.4
25.1
-1.6
9.1
-2.0
2.4
-1.8
3.8
Nigeria
Tunisia
34.9
4.2
31.9
8.5
26.1
10.8
-0.1
10.3
-4.1
4.5
-11.4
2.4
-8.8
-1.3
-2.1
0.6
23.3
33.9
45.3
41.6
25.1
9.1
2.4
3.8
Tanzania
Tunisia
Country
Table 6
Algeria
: Exports for selected African countries
Country
Angola
17183.9
2011 Q.1
Algeria
14077.2
Angola
14077.2
Benin
Burkina Faso
Benin
Cameroon
Burkina Faso
Congo, Dem. Rep.
Cameroon
Congo, Dem.
Congo, Rep. Rep.
Cote d'Ivoire
Congo, Rep.
17183.9
179.1
158.3
179.1
(current millions of US$, s.a)
18950.1
2011 Q.2
14301.4
18950.1
233.2
14301.4
191.1
233.2
18692.9
2011 Q.3
15007.0
18692.9
215.7
15007.0
214.4
215.7
18669.6
2011 Q.4
16112.2
18669.6
202.8
16112.2
215.6
202.8
15702.5
2012 Q.1
17686.2
15702.5
272.4
17686.2
214.6
272.4
13927.6
2012 Q.2
17865.1
13927.6
221.2
17865.1
244.0
221.2
13456.0
2012 Q.3
15066.1
13456.0
246.2
15066.1
182.1
246.2
13646.6
2012 Q.4
16041.4
13646.6
210.0
16041.4
156.8
210.0
1220.3
158.3
1528.4
191.1
1271.3
214.4
1240.3
215.6
1395.1
214.6
1317.9
244.0
1333.4
182.1
1795.8
156.8
1427.0
1220.3
1393.6
1528.4
1567.4
1271.3
1546.9
1240.3
1440.9
1395.1
1600.4
1317.9
1353.2
1333.4
1231.1
1795.8
2505.3
1427.0
2741.2
1393.6
3097.7
1567.4
2609.4
1546.9
3182.4
1440.9
2619.7
1600.4
2234.6
1353.2
2782.3
1231.1
2154.4
2505.3
2997.2
2741.2
3362.6
3097.7
2359.3
2609.4
2834.9
3182.4
2529.5
2619.7
2522.1
2234.6
2689.8
2782.3
Djibouti
Cote d'Ivoire
115.0
2154.4
124.8
2997.2
130.7
3362.6
159.5
2359.3
137.8
2834.9
149.6
2529.5
146.9
2522.1
142.2
2689.8
Djibouti
Egypt
7157.4
115.0
7824.7
124.8
7647.2
130.7
7841.6
159.5
7477.6
137.8
6759.1
149.6
6535.3
146.9
7834.2
142.2
Egypt
Equatorial Guinea
7157.4
2639.1
7824.7
2762.8
7647.2
3214.5
7841.6
3045.0
7477.6
3418.0
6759.1
3270.0
6535.3
3664.3
7834.2
3784.6
Equatorial Guinea
Ethiopia
2639.1
502.8
2762.8
517.7
3214.5
528.2
3045.0
498.9
3418.0
463.6
3270.0
512.1
3664.3
494.7
3784.6
519.8
Ethiopia
Gabon
502.8
2558.7
517.7
2615.0
528.2
2376.8
498.9
2526.4
463.6
2614.9
512.1
2607.3
494.7
2716.5
519.8
2569.7
Gabon
Ghana
2558.7
1729.2
2615.0
2194.5
2376.8
2147.2
2526.4
2484.1
2614.9
2170.2
2607.3
2001.3
2716.5
1915.4
2569.7
1847.4
Guinea
558.8
664.4
586.5
387.9
605.3
509.0
421.6
467.6
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Guinea-Bissau
Libya
Libya
Madagascar
Madagascar
Mauritania
Mauritania
1729.2
558.8
2194.5
664.4
2147.2
586.5
2484.1
387.9
2170.2
605.3
2001.3
509.0
1915.4
421.6
35.0
35.0
10013.4
49.9
49.9
1866.0
82.9
82.9
787.3
127.2
127.2
2980.0
53.5
53.5
9379.5
50.9
50.9
14016.1
46.0
46.0
16233.2
318.5
359.1
536.6
410.7
486.3
381.2
353.2
789.5
814.9
10013.4
318.5
809.0
809.0
1866.0
359.1
789.5
787.3
536.6
814.9
2980.0
410.7
633.3
633.3
9379.5
486.3
730.9
730.9
14016.1
381.2
806.9
806.9
16233.2
353.2
662.7
662.7
1847.4
467.6
32.7
32.7
16010.4
16010.4
499.2
499.2
641.7
641.7
Mauritius
560.2
563.4
552.1
501.8
561.4
576.9
542.4
627.2
Morocco
5200.6
5257.2
5484.2
5469.8
5485.4
5098.0
5136.2
5588.4
974.6
974.6
771.4
771.4
992.0
992.0
1014.2
1014.2
1021.6
1021.6
1016.5
1016.5
Mauritius
Morocco
Mozambique
Mozambique
Niger
Niger
Nigeria
Nigeria
Seychelles
Seychelles
South Africa
Tunisia
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe
Chief Economist Complex, ECON
Chief Economist Complex, ECON
560.2
5200.6
954.5
954.5
114.6
114.6
563.4
5257.2
161.1
161.1
552.1
5484.2
94.3
94.3
501.8
5469.8
909.9
909.9
161.3
161.3
561.4
5485.4
200.5
200.5
576.9
5098.0
154.4
154.4
542.4
5136.2
84.9
84.9
627.2
5588.4
64.0
64.0
25978.2
25978.2
91.5
91.5
28366.3
28366.3
84.6
84.6
26964.4
26964.4
85.8
85.8
25077.9
25077.9
97.7
97.7
27882.1
27882.1
103.4
103.4
27828.9
27828.9
104.8
104.8
25040.9
25040.9
108.7
108.7
26423.3
26423.3
93.8
93.8
24135.1
24885.6
24507.3
24507.3
23382.5
23382.5
23869.1
23869.1
21844.6
21844.6
20835.7
20835.7
21250.8
21250.8
4245.4
4800.2
4526.0
4526.0
4238.0
4238.0
4361.2
4361.2
4218.7
4218.7
4062.5
4062.5
4494.6
4494.6
601.2
668.1
706.8
706.8
607.7
607.7
661.4
661.4
736.6
736.6
778.3
778.3
693.1
693.1
2034.8
1631.9
1548.0
1548.0
1461.3
1461.3
1337.0
1337.0
1709.5
1709.5
1372.4
1372.4
1496.2
1496.2
547.8
547.8
728.6
728.6
603.0
603.0
615.5
615.5
675.7
675.7
574.0
574.0
528.3
528.3
595.6
595.6
11
11

12. 30
3 000
10
12 | Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013
3 250
20
2 750
2 500
0
2 250
-10
2 000
-20
1 750
-30
1 500
60
-40
4 000
50
40
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
3 500
30
3 250
3 000
20
60
2 750
15,00
10
? Africa in the World Economy
Commodity Prices ...
?
0
2.3 - AFRICA: Commodity trends
-10
35
-20
1 500
7,50
60
15,00
0
-40
2011
2010
2009
2008
35
2012
7,50
35
-15 275
3,75
30
250
-40
225
25
0
2009
2008
2010
2011
2012
Cereal prices have been moving in the opposite direction since the start of 2013, with
60
wheat retreating more than 10%. Global wheat production is expected to recover in
50
2013 though, after the major drought that hit eastern Europe in 2012. After mode40
rating at the end of 2012, corn prices have risen by more than 5% since the start of
30
2013.
20
2
10
125
300
5
100
275
35
75
250
30
50
225
-5
25
200
0
2009
2010
2011
2013
2012
175
150
5
0
75
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
2
10
100
140 50
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
140
40
130
30
120
20
110
20
15
125
Downside pressures on industrial metal prices are largely associated with slower
global economic growth, rising domestic production, and relatively high inventories.
Combined with growing concerns over the Chinese economy, these developments
had a dampening effect on industrial metal prices Gold prices decreased significantly during the first quarter of 2013. April 15 saw its biggest tumble in two years
(to US$1,321 per ounce), compared to its high of US$ 1,921 in September 2011. Silver has also seen a drop of 11%. Various factors are at play here: the sell-off of gold
reserves by Cyprus sending worrying signals, weaker economic data coming out of
China, plus the US dollar’s surge. The drop in prices, despite the highly accommodative policies taken by many central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, raises
some doubt about gold’s potential to maintain its upward trajectory of recent years.
20
15
150
Precious and industrial metals prices down in March and April
2
300
175
Fundamental factors are primarily responsible for the price retreat. Austerity measures in the eurozone have seen consumers cutting back on personal expenditure,
including gasoline. Demand remains very low and the International Energy Agency
has downgraded the global demand forecast for 2013. Also, the surge in U.S. production is putting the brakes on prices.
11,25
Graph 15. Commodity prices (indexes, 100=2005)
10
200
The energy index dropped by 4.1% in March, following an increase of 2.3% in the
previous month. At the time of writing (mid-April 2013), prices have seen a marked
decrease, with Brent crude below US$100 per barrel for the first time since July
2012 and West Texas intermediate down to US$88.3 per barrel. Both have fallen
9% in the first half of April.
2
3,75
-15
Crude oil futures fell on reduced refinery demand
2 250
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
During March 2013, prices for most commodities fell close to their December 2012
levels. Concerns over the slowdown in China’s economy, intensified by the announcement of new measures to curb the country’s real estate sector, hit base metal
prices particularly hard. Raw material prices have also been hurt by the US dollar’s
surge since the start of 2013. The IMF commodity price index was down in March
2013 by 3.7% on a monthly basis, following an increase of 1.6% recorded in February.
2 500
2 000
11,25
1 750
-30
10
-40
Commodity prices showing signs of a slowdown
2
3 750
15
-5
2009
2010
2011
2
2013
2012
12
9
Graph 16. Crude oil (US$ per barrel)
6
15
3
12
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
2013
9
2
6
3
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
2013
2
Graph 17. Cocoa beans (US$ / metric tonne)
15
4 000
3 750
12
3 500
3 250
9
3 000
2 750
10
0
Weak economic growth in several major economies is curbing demand for commo-10
dities. This, together with a supply -20 exceeds demand, should keep the lid on
that
commodity prices in the months to come. However, if global growth accelerates as
-30
-40
expected at mid-year, prices could start to trend upward again.
2008
2009
2010
2011
2 500
6
2 250
2 000
3
1 750
1 500
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2012
60
11,25
10
7,50
-15
3,75
2
15,00
35
0
28,227
23,338
18,448
13,558
8,669
3,779
0
-40
2008
300
2009
2010
2011
2012
-1,110
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-6,000

13. Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 | 13
Africa in the World Economy
? Africa in the World Economy
Commodity Prices ...
?
2.3 - AFRICA: Summary of commodity prices
Table 7 : Commodity Prices
Commodity
2011
2013
2012
Source : World Bank
Jan. 2013
Feb. 2013
2012 /2011
Mar. 2013
Mar 2013 / Q1 2013 / Q4Q1 2013 / Q1
Feb 2013
2012
2012
%
%
%
Energy
Coal, Australia, $/mt
121.4
96.4
92.8
94.9
92.2
-20.7
7.4
-17.9
Crude oil, Brent, $/b
110.9
112.0
113.0
116.5
109.2
0.9
2.2
-4.8
Crude oil, WTI, $/b
95.1
94.2
94.7
95.3
92.9
-0.9
7.0
-8.3
Natural gas, Europe, $/mmbtu
10.5
11.5
11.9
11.8
11.9
9.1
0.9
2.8
Cocoa, c/kg
298.0
239.2
227.5
219.8
215.3
-19.7
-9.9
-5.6
Coffee, Arabica, c/kg
597.6
411.1
346.8
329.5
330.2
-31.2
-6.1
-31.1
Coffee, Robusta, c/kg
240.8
226.7
219.8
229.3
234.3
-5.8
3.8
2.6
Tea, Kokata auctions, c/kg
277.9
275.0
266.0
253.1
255.1
-1.0
-11.4
25.7
Tea, Mombasa auctions, c/kg
271.9
288.1
305.2
291.3
265.5
5.9
-4.2
7.7
Agriculture
Beverages & oils
Palm oil ($/mt)
1 125.4
999.3
841.0
863.0
854.0
-11.2
5.4
-23.0
Soybean oil ($/mt)
1 299.3
1 226.3
1 190.0
1 175.0
1 116.0
-5.6
0.2
-7.4
Grains
Maize, $/mt
291.7
298.4
303.1
302.7
309.0
2.3
-3.8
9.8
Rice, Thailand, 5%, $/mt
543.0
563.0
564.2
563.0
559.0
3.7
0.7
3.6
Sorghum, $/mt
268.7
271.9
291.0
288.1
296.7
1.2
2.3
8.3
Wheat, US, SRW, $/mt
285.9
295.4
309.0
298.0
285.9
3.3
-11.8
14.9
1 124.7
1 099.7
1 095.6
1 112.4
937.0
-2.2
-4.9
-8.2
Beef, c/kg
968.0
984.0
928.7
923.2
937.0
1.7
-1.6
-11.7
Oranges, $/mt
404.2
414.2
430.7
428.0
422.7
2.5
1.9
0.6
1 537.4
1 558.3
1 919.0
1 884.0
1 802.0
1.4
5.2
43.8
891.1
868.0
739.2
883.6
907.0
-2.6
-2.2
9.4
484.8
390.5
607.5
451.4
360.5
610.3
465.6
334.1
612.9
466.9
319.7
586.4
436.2
313.8
575.6
-6.9
-7.7
0.5
0.7
-8.6
-3.3
-1.6
-13.6
-3.5
Cotton, A Index, c/kg
332.9
196.7
188.5
197.8
208.2
-40.9
9.5
-10.5
Rubber, Singapore, c/kg
482.3
337.7
330.4
318.6
297.6
-30.0
1.9
-18.1
DAP, $/mt
618.9
539.8
485.0
482.3
507.5
-12.8
-7.6
-4.8
Phosphate rock, $/mt
184.9
185.9
179.0
170.0
170.0
0.5
-6.5
-11.7
Aluminum, $/ton
2 401.4
2 023.3
2 037.8
2 053.6
1 909.6
-15.7
-0.1
-8.2
Copper, $/mt
8 828.2
7 962.3
8 047.4
8 060.9
7 645.6
-9.8
0.1
-4.8
Gold, $/toz
1 569.2
167.8
240.1
1 669.5
128.5
206.5
1 671.8
150.8
233.4
1 627.6
154.7
236.6
1 593.1
139.9
216.9
6.4
-23.4
-14.0
-5.1
22.8
4.0
-3.6
4.7
9.5
22 910.4 17 547.5
Other Food
Bananas, EU, $/mt
Sugar, EU, c/kg
Sugar, world, c/kg
Raw Materials
Timber
Logs, Cameroon, $/cum
Plywood, c/sheets
Sawnwood, Cameroon, $/cum
Other Raw Materials
Metals and Minerals
Iron ore, c/dmtu
Lead, c/kg
17 472.5
17 690.1
16 724.9
-23.4
1.8
-11.9
Silver, c/toz
3 522.4
3 113.7
3 106.2
3 032.9
2 879.1
-11.6
-7.8
-7.7
Tin, c/kg
2 605.4
2 112.6
2 454.6
2 421.2
2 329.7
-18.9
11.1
4.9
219.4
195.0
203.2
212.9
192.6
-11.1
3.9
0.2
1 719.5
1 550.8
1 638.9
1 674.6
1 583.0
-9.8
2.1
1.7
Nickel, $/mt
Zinc, c/kg
Platinum ($/troy oz)
/
slight (-/+) change
Chief Economist Complex, ECON
/
moderate (-/+) change
/
large (-/+) change
13

14. 14 | Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013
60
40
3 500
2.4 - AFRICA: Inflation & money supply
30
20
2 500
0
Inflation easing, with notable exceptions
50
-20
-30
30
the
After a continuous upward trend from 40 end of 2010 to mid-2012, inflation in Africa
-40
30
20
2012
2011
2009
edged down in the latter part of 2012 20 this has continued 2010 2013. Although inand 2008
into
10
10
flation seems to have largely been0 contained in most African countries, there are a
0
-10
few notable exceptions such as Ghana,60
South Africa, and Tunisia, as detailed below.
-10
-20
-30
15
2 000
3 750000
4
1 750
3 500750
3
1 500
3
3 250500
15
Many central banks in the continent -30
reacted to weakening inflation pressures and
-40
-40 35
moderate growth by easing monetary 2008 2008 In2009 2009 2010 2010 weak 2011 20122012
policy. addition, the
2011 global environment encouraged many central banks to cut their policy rates, in an effort to inject
10
liquidity into real economy. Kenya and Uganda were among the most aggressive in
60
60
cutting policy rates in 2012. High inflation rates experienced during 2011 in these
-15
countries, and also in Tanzania, have eased since the end of 2011, partly as a result
35
35
of favorable rains and as a result of more stringent monetary policies. In Kenya, where
-40
monetary tightening had been deployed to rein in inflation, the2010
headline2011
inflation 2012
rate
10
2009
2008
10
increased slightly in February (4.5%) and March (4.1%), from a low of 3.3% in November 2012. In Tanzania, the annual -15
inflation rate for March 2013 declined to 9.8%
-15
from 10.4% the previous month, with food inflation rate decreasing by one percen300
-40
tage point to 10.7% in March from 11.7%275 February. In Uganda, the annual headin
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
-40
line Inflation rate for March 2013 rose to 4.0% from 3.5% recorded in the previous
250
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
month.
225
200
300
In Namibia, inflation edged down to 6.2% in February and March, from 6.6% recor300
150
ded in January, as a result of slight drops250 the price of food and non-alcoholic bein
275
125
225
250
verages.
175
150
9
175
75
2Graph
2 500750
18. Africa - Inflation (monthly data, median values)
2 500
125
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
100
125
Although a disinflationary trend generally 75
prevailed across the continent, domestic
100
50
factors are fueling inflation in some countries (Ghana, South Africa, and Tunisia). Po2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
75
litical unrest is causing supply shortages in some North African countries (Tunisia,
50
Egypt), and this is driving up domestic food prices 2010 inching up inflation rates. In
and
2013
2012
2011
2009
Egypt, the urban inflation rate has accelerated steeply over the past 4 months, from
140
130
4.7% in December 2012 to 7.6% in March 2013.
120
110
100
140
130
90
120
80
110
70
100
60
90
50
80
40
70
30
60
20
50
In Tunisia, in response to political turmoil and social protest, as well as declining
world commodity prices in general, transition governments during 2011 and 2012 in140
creased food and fuel subsidies. They also increased public sector wages in res130
120
ponse to rising unemployment (officially at 17%) and poverty. However, maintaining
110
the subsidies has proved challenging100 the government, which fears a budget defor
90
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
80
ficit of around 6% in 2013. In response,40the authorities raised the price of state30
70
controlled milk in early 2012 and then60the20price of gasoline at the pumps by around
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
6.8%. In March 2013 the government 50
imposed a levy of 1% on salaries above 1,700
40
30
dinars ($1,075) per month to help fund remaining subsidies on fuel and food. The
20
withdrawal of some subsidies has driven up inflation to 6.5% in March 2013, with
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
food inflation hitting two digits and fuel prices rising by nearly 7%.
20
6
6
2 250
2 250
2 000
000
215,00
3
3
1 750
28,227
1 500
1 500
2009
11,252009
0
2013
2013
2012
2012
2011
2011
2010
2010
0
23,338
2009
2009
18,448
7,50
13,558
15,00
15,00
8,669
3,75
28,227
28,227
23,3383,779
11,25
11,25
7,50
23,338
0
-1,110
18,448
2009
7,50
2010
2011
18,448
2013
2012
13,558
-6,000
13,558
8,669
3,75
8,669
3,75
0
3,779
3,779
0 35
30
-1,110
2009
-6,000
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2013
2012
2011
2010
-1,110
25
Graph 19. Inflation in the Horn of Africa (monthly data, %
change m/m-12)
20
35
35 30
30 25
20
150
0
9
3
2 750000
25
Rising inflationary pressures in some countries
50
200
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
3
3 000250
175
275
200
100
3
12
12
1 750
-20
225
6
2 250
4 000
60
40
9
3 000
2 750
-10
50
12
3 250
10
60
Inflation / Money Supply ...
?
3 750
15
10
5
20
15
10
-6,000
15
12
6
15
12
10
3
12
9
5
0
0
9
6
-5
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
5
3
6
-3
0
3
0
-3
-5
0
2009
2010
0
2013
2012
2011
-3
-5
15
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
50
40
12
15
Graph 20. Inflation : consumer prices (monthly data, %
9
change m/m-12)
12
15
6
50
30
40
50
30
9
40
12
6
3
20
30
9
3
0
10
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
6
20
0
0
3
15
9
15
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2012
2013
10
0
0
2009
2010
2011
© AfDB 2012 - Design, ERCU/YAL
? Africa in the World Economy
15
4 000
50
20
10
0

15. Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 | 15
60
3 750
40
50
3 000
10
4 000 2 750
? Africa in the World Economy
0
40
-10
30
3 750
-20
20
10
20
30
40
60
35
3 500
3 250
3 000
-30
2 750
-40
2010
2009
2008
0
10
87,498
3 250
20
101,248
12
3 500
30
60
15
4 000
50
2011
2012
73,748
9
2 500
2 000
2.4 - AFRICA: Inflation & money supply
1 750
1 500
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2012
2011
2010
18,750
59,999
5,000
2 250
7,50
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
32,499
3
0
Graph 21. Inflation : producer prices (manufacturing,
monthly data, % change m/m-12)
28,227
23,338
25
Stagflation risk in South Africa !
200
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
2009
2013
2012
2011
2010
300
8,669
28,227
150
3,779
23,338
250
100
-1,110
18,448
200
-6,000
15
150
10
35
The SARB (South Africa Reserve Bank) has warned of the risk of stagflation, cha5
racterized by low growth and rising inflation. 30
Inflation in March 2013 rose to 6% – the
0
75
25
top end of the Reserve Bank’s target – after increasing by 5.9% in February. Slug-5
50
20 structural constraints2011 growth, a de2013
2012
gish 2009
global demand combined with domestic
to
2010
2009
2013
2012
2011
2010
15
preciating rand, and above-inflation wage hikes have been contributory factors. In
10
regard to the monetary sector, credit growth trends have reflected monetary policy
5
and rising inflation. Private sector credit growth slowed to 7.9% in February 2012
0
from almost 10% in late 2012, while aggregate money supply accelerated to 7.7%
15
140 February from 5.2% growth in December -5
in
2012 and 6.7% in January 2013.
125
100
130
2009
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
2012
2011
2010
2013
12
2009
2011
2010
2009
2012
2013
2010
2011
2012
2013
8,669
50
200
150
3,779
15
100
-1,110
12
9
20
175
300
200
-6,000
2012
2011
2010
2009
2009
250
13,558
13,558
2008
5,000
300
18,448
225
-40
18,750
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
After registering single-digit inflation rates for both 2011 and 2012, Ghana is seeing
a recent rise caused by a delayed pass-through of increased producer prices com3,75
300
bined with public sector wage increases granted and a sharp increase in government
35
275
domestic borrowing (see Focus).
0 30
250
-15
2009
46,249
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
6
-40
2009
73,748
3
9
0
2 000
Similarly, core inflation measured by the CPI (excluding food and energy), exhibited
1 750
a steady upward trend during 2012 and persisted into 2013, triggered mainly by the
15,00
1 500
surge in commodity prices. This suggests that the pass-through effects of the pu2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008 blic sector wages increase and rise in imported prices have yet to surface. Howe35
11,25
ver, Tunisian producer prices remained stable during the year. This reflects profit
10
margin cutting by domestic producers to 15,007,50 their competitiveness. In order to
preserve
address the country's fiscal and balance of payments deficits and create conditions
-15
for a sustained recovery of the economy, the 3,75
central bank of Tunisia is maintaining a
11,25
tight monetary policy stance.
0
2008
46,249
87,498
Inflation / Money Supply ...
?
32,499
12
60
10
101,248
6
2 250
2 500
59,999
15
6,777
5,814
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Graph 22. South Africa : money and credits (monthly data,
6
% change on previous year)
15 3
50
4,851
200
3,889
6,777
2,926
12 0
5,814
1,963
9 -3
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
6
4,851
1,000
3,889
3
2,926
0
-3
400
1,963
50
40
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
350
1,000
300
9
30
250
6
20
200
15
3
5010
12
0
40 0
150
400
100
350
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2009
2010
2011
2012
2009
2013
2010
2011
2012
2013
50
300
9
30
6
20
200
3
10
0
0
20
250
150
100
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
50
20

16. 16 | Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013
Africa in the World Economy
? Africa in the World Economy
Inflation ...
?
2.4 - AFRICA: Inflation summary
Table 9 : Inflation on consumer prices
% change on same quarter of previous year
(in %)
2011
2012
2013
Country
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
Algeria
Angola
Benin
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cameroon
Cape Verde
Central African Republic
Chad
Comoros
Congo, Rep.
Côte d'Ivoire
Djibouti
Egypt
Equatorial Guinea
Ethiopia
Gabon
Gambia, The
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Kenya
Lesotho
Liberia
Libya
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Mauritania
Mauritius
Morocco
Mozambique
Namibia
Niger
Nigeria
Rwanda
Sao Tome and Principe
Senegal
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
South Africa
Sudan
Swaziland
Tanzania, United Rep.
Togo
Tunisia
Uganda
Zambia
4.0
14.6
2.1
8.0
2.0
8.0
2.9
5.2
2.4
-3.2
1.5
1.9
6.6
4.7
12.0
7.3
33.9
1.5
5.5
8.8
22.6
6.6
13.2
4.4
8.0
12.1
10.0
7.0
2.8
5.4
6.9
0.2
11.2
5.1
2.5
11.3
5.1
16.9
4.5
2.0
17.0
4.6
16.6
6.7
9.7
4.8
3.1
15.3
6.2
5.3
13.2
3.5
8.4
3.2
10.6
3.2
4.7
-0.1
-8.1
-0.2
0.2
4.8
4.0
9.1
6.8
40.3
2.7
4.2
8.4
21.7
5.4
16.4
5.4
9.1
...
8.8
7.6
2.1
5.6
6.6
1.6
7.7
5.2
2.9
10.0
7.1
14.5
2.9
2.8
16.4
5.5
...
6.1
14.5
3.3
3.7
22.8
6.6
5.3
11.3
1.9
9.1
4.9
15.0
2.8
4.1
0.3
-6.0
0.6
1.7
3.1
5.2
8.5
6.2
38.3
1.3
4.3
8.6
20.2
3.5
19.1
6.9
10.7
...
7.5
9.0
4.2
5.7
6.0
0.4
7.2
6.5
2.8
10.4
7.9
12.5
2.6
4.8
17.1
6.0
...
7.0
18.9
2.4
4.6
28.8
6.4
9.0
11.3
6.5
8.3
3.3
22.7
2.5
2.5
5.8
-3.7
3.2
-1.2
1.6
7.8
8.9
6.0
33.4
3.1
4.0
8.6
17.8
2.3
17.1
7.3
9.2
...
5.3
10.8
5.4
5.7
4.2
0.5
3.6
7.0
-0.3
12.0
8.0
11.0
2.1
6.1
15.6
6.1
...
9.0
19.5
2.1
5.4
24.2
6.3
9.5
10.5
6.7
7.5
3.8
20.9
3.2
1.5
4.7
6.6
4.0
0.2
-1.4
8.0
8.1
6.0
25.4
2.5
4.0
9.3
15.5
1.9
11.8
6.4
7.2
...
6.9
16.6
7.3
5.7
3.8
1.4
2.4
6.0
1.0
12.8
7.0
9.2
1.0
8.0
12.9
5.8
...
9.0
18.1
2.4
5.6
18.9
6.5
8.0
9.9
6.5
7.1
4.7
15.9
2.9
2.3
4.6
20.9
19.1
8.0
2.0
7.8
6.4
...
20.3
2.7
4.3
9.5
14.7
2.1
6.3
5.6
4.5
...
6.7
25.2
5.6
4.9
3.9
1.3
2.0
6.2
0.5
12.0
5.7
11.4
0.9
7.8
11.8
5.1
...
9.4
14.6
2.6
5.7
10.6
6.4
9.1
9.5
7.4
7.3
3.4
13.2
3.2
3.9
...
17.6
23.5
8.7
3.1
7.9
5.2
...
...
2.3
...
9.2
13.1
2.1
3.5
5.2
6.6
...
6.6
32.8
3.5
...
3.5
2.0
2.1
7.0
0.6
12.0
4.6
11.0
1.7
6.5
11.4
5.6
...
10.1
12.3
3.5
5.4
4.9
...
6.6
9.0
2.5
7.5
2.5
7.6
3.9
3.4
...
...
19.4
7.1
3.4
...
7.4
...
...
1.4
...
9.7
...
...
4.1
4.9
...
...
5.6
...
-0.2
...
3.3
2.3
...
6.4
1.5
9.2
5.3
10.4
0.2
6.4
11.7
5.7
...
...
10.4
3.2
6.1
4.2
...
Chief Economist Complex, ECON
16

17. 0
0
100
-1,110
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
-6,000
2011
2010
2009
2012
2013
50
2009
Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 | 17
300
275
30
225
25
200
15
35
250
20
175
75
2.5 - AFRICA: Financial indicators
-5
2010
2,926
1,963
-3
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2013
2012
2011
Financial Issues ...
?
0
0
50
2009
3,889
3
5
? Africa in the World Economy
100
4,851
6
10
125
5,814
9
15
150
6,777
12
2010
2009
2011
2012
2013
1,000
2
Currency depreciation against the US dollar
Graph 23. Total reserves (billions of current US$)
4 000
3 750
3 500
3 250
3 000
2 750
2 500
2 250
4 000
2 000
3 750
1 750
3 500
1 500
3 250
2 750
2 500
2 250
2 000
15,00
1 750
1 500
11,25
7,50
15,00
3,75
11,25
7,50
0
0
35
30
25
20
2010
2011
2012
2013
9
2013
87,498
73,748
59,999
46,249
101,248
32,499
3
87,498
18,750
73,748
5,000
0
2011
2010
2009
59,999
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2012
2013
46,249
32,499
18,750
5,000
300
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
250
200
Graph 25. Stock market indexes (100=2005)
300
150
250
100
200
50
2009
150
2010
2011
2013
2012
100
6,777
50
5,814
2010
2009
2011
2012
2013
4,851
6,777
12 3
5,814
90
4,851
3,889
2,926
20 0
6
-5
2009
10
2013
2012
101,248
15 6
25 5
2011
Graph 24. Exchange rates : Kenya & South Africa (national
currency per US $)
2013
2012
2011
8,669
The rally in South Africa's equity market during the 2009
second2010 of 2012 has tempehalf
3,779
red somewhat since the start of 2013. The strong performance displayed by the domestic share market in 2012 continued, helped by higher international equity prices,
-1,110
15
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
improving business sentiment, and the depreciation in the exchange value of the
-6,000
12
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
rand. The FTSE/JSE All-Share Price Index increased by around 2.0% in March 2013
9
from December 2012 and by 18.8% compared to 12 months previously.
3010
2010
2009
13,558
-6,000
3515
15
100
13,558
2012
150
0
Stock markets in West Africa posted good performances in the first quarter of 2013.
8,669
28,227
The BRVM index climbed by 18.2% between December 2012 and March 2013, as
23,338
3,779
the outlook for the subregion strengthened. At the same time, Botswana, Kenya,
18,448
-1,110
Mauritius and Nigeria, all recorded a double-digit uptick in stock markets.
2011
200
10
In recent years, developments in many Sub-Saharan Africa economies have caught
6
the attention of international investors looking for higher returns in emerging mar3
kets. Parallel with the uptrend in global stock markets since mid-2012, African equity
indexes overall have registered robust performances, despite some divergences
28,227
0
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
among subregions. North Africa is one exception, where the current environment is
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
23,338
weighing heavily on equity markets and dampening investor confidence.
18,448
2010
250
20
Sub-Saharan stock markets are booming
2009
3,75
300
30
12
The weakening of the South African rand also continued in line with the downgrading
of South Africa’s sovereign credit rating and the widening of the current account de9
ficit. In Kenya, between February and March, the Kenyan shilling registered a 1.9%
6
gain against the US dollar.
15
2009
3 000
350
40
As prospects for global growth remained modest and weighed by uncertainties at the
turn of 2012–2013, almost major African currencies depreciated against the US dollar. In Egypt, the recent move to a more flexible exchange rate aimed to reduce the
misalignment in the exchange rate. This led to a sharp devaluation of the Egyptian
pound against the US dollar in March 2013, with a 9.8% loss compared to December 2012.
15
12
400
50
15
Consistent with slowing global activity and decelerating world trade, gross foreign reserves moderated in general across the continent during 2012. By contrast, in the
12
aftermath of Arab Spring and with continuing political uncertainties, international re9
serves held in US dollars declined sharply in Tunisia and Egypt, leading to more intense pressures on external stability. At the end of March 2013, Egypt’s foreign
6
reserves reached new critical levels of US$ 13.4 billion, as net international reserves
3
officially tallied, posting a 11.2% drop compared to the same period of previous year.
The nation's reserves have fallen sharply from US$36 billion since the popular upri0
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
sing in 2011.
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
2010
2011
2012
2013
1,963
-3
2009
3
2010
2011
2012
2013
3,889
1,000
2,926
5
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0
0
1,963
-3
-5
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
1,000
400
15
50
12
40
15 9
50
30
12 6
40
20
9 3
30
10
250
6
20
200
350
300
400
250
350
200
300
150
100
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
50
150
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
50
2009

18. 15
101,248
87,498
12
73,748
18 | Statistics Department | First9Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013
59,999
46,249
6
32,499
3
2011
2010
2013
2012
18,750
5,000
0
2010
Africa in the World2009
Economy
Africa in the World Economy
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2013
2012
2011
? Africa in the World Economy
101,248
Table
73,748
3,779
Algeria
Algeria
Botswana
2013
2012
5,000
Botswana
Mauritius
Mauritius
Morocco
300
Morocco
Nigeria
Nigeria
250
Sierra Leone
Sierra Leone
200 Uganda
Uganda
WAEMU
012
2011
2010
Ethiopian Birr
2010
2013
2009
2012
16.90
1.504
1.504
28.71
28.71
8.090
8.090
153.90
153.90
4,348.6
4,348.6
2,522.7
Cedi-Ghana
15
Mauritius Rupee
12
Dirham-Morocco
9
Naira-Nigeria
Leone
6
3
Ugandan shilling
2,522.7
471.9
471.9
0
CFA Franc
150
WAEMU
77.61
77.61
7.620
7.620
2012
2011
Q.1 2013 /
Q4 2012
2013
2012
January
January
78.26
78.26
7.938
7.938
2013
17.79
18.31
1.852
1.903
1.852
1.903
30.12
30.60
30.12
30.60
8.631
8.397
8.631
8.397
158.80
156.86
158.80
156.86
4,344.7 4,329.9
4,344.7 4,329.9
2,504.5 2,683.5
2,504.5 2,683.5
510.4
493.4
510.4
493.4
150
February
February
78.14
100
78.14
8.004
8.004
50
March
March
79.16
79.16
8.215
8.215
2009
18.39
18.46
1.907
1.928
1.907
1.928
30.62 6,777
31.06
30.62
31.06
8.366
8.576
8.366 5,814 8.576
157.48
158.39
157.48 4,851 158.39
4,323.7
4,319.0
4,323.73,889 4,319.0
2,655.4
2,634.0
2,655.42,926 2,634.0
491.4
506.4
491.4
1,963
4.8
4.8
10.2
10.2
2011
1.2
1.2
1.2
-0.4
-0.4
-1.4
-1.4
0.2
0.2
-0.2
-0.2
1.2
1.2
-1.7
-1.7
506.4
Mar.2013/
Mar.2012
% change
-0.8
-0.8
2.1
2.1
2010
Q.1 2013 /
Q1 2012
2012
5.7
11.8
11.8
5.4
5.4
-0.6
-0.6
-1.0
-1.0
-0.9
-0.9
10.4
10.4
-0.7
6.6
6.6
13.4
13.4
2013
5.6
10.7
10.7
6.9
6.9
1.6
1.6
0.5
0.5
-0.8
-0.8
6.1
6.1
2.0
-0.7
2.0
-3
100
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2012
2013
1,000
2007
2006
2008
2010
2009
50
2013
12
12
-6,000
Pula-Botswana
Ethiopia
Ghana
Ghana
2011
72.94
72.94
6.838
6.838
Algerian -1,110
Dinar
2009
2010
200
2011
Currency
8,669
18,750
2011
(national currency per U.S$, period average)
13,558
Country
Country
32,499
2013
250
18,448
: Exchange rates for selected countries
10
46,249
2010
2.5 - AFRICA: Summary of financial indicators
23,338
87,498
59,999
Financial Issues ...
?
300
28,227
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Graph 26. Exchange rates : Tunisia & Egypt (national currency per US $)
6,777
Graph 26. Graph 27. Stock market indexes (100=2005)
400
50
350
5,814
40
300
4,851
30
250
20
200
3,889
2,926
150
10
1,963
2010
2013
2011
1,000
2012
100
0
2013
2006
2007
2008
2010
2010
2009
2009
2012
2011
50
2013
2010
2009
2011
2012
2013
400
Table 11
350
300
: Stock market indexes for selected countries
Country
(end of period quotes, %)
2011
6,970.9
7,510.2
EGX 30 Index
3,622.4
6,970.9
5,462.4
7,510.2
Nairobi All Share
3,205.0
3,622.4
4,133.0
5,462.4
Country
200
Botswana
150
Egypt
Botswana
January
2013
50
2009
Mauritius
Kenya
Morocco
Mauritius
Namibia
Morocco
South Africa
Namibia
Tanzania
South Africa
Tunisia
Tanzania
2011
2010 Semdex
Madex Free Float Index
Overall Index
FTSE/JSE All Share
All Share Index
Tunindex
Tunisia
Chief Economist Complex, ECON
Chief Economist Complex, ECON
7,799.1
February
Mar.2013/
Feb.2013
Mar.2013/
Mar.2012
% change
March
7,946.0
8,400.0
March
11.8
5.7
5,576.0
7,799.1
5,546.4
7,946.0
5,098.8
8,400.0
-6.7
11.8
-8.1
5.7
1.6
19.0
4,416.6
5,576.0
4,513.6
5,546.4
4,830.4
5,098.8
16.9
-6.7
7.0
-8.1
43.5
1.6
2013
1,888.4
1,732.1
1,800.7
1,866.3
3,205.0
4,133.0
4,416.6
4,513.6
9,011.6
7,614.0
7,329.3
7,273.5
1,888.4
1,732.1
1,800.7
1,866.3
838.2
983.8
991.2
974.2
9,011.6
7,614.0
7,329.3
7,273.5
31,985.7 39,250.2 40,618.3 39,709.6
838.2
983.8
991.2
974.2
1,303.2
1,485.6
1,488.1
1,505.8
31,985.7 39,250.2 40,618.3 39,709.6
4,722.3
4,579.9
4,746.5
4,638.8
1,303.2
1,485.6
1,488.1
1,505.8
1,925.5
4,830.4
7,364.1
1,925.5
966.2
7,364.1
39,860.8
966.2
1,521.5
39,860.8
4,725.7
1,521.5
11.2
16.9
-3.3
11.2
-1.8
-3.3
1.6
-1.8
2.4
1.6
3.2
2.4
3.2
7.0
1.2
3.2
-0.8
1.2
0.4
-0.8
1.0
0.4
1.9
1.0
-4.8
43.5
-17.8
-4.8
9.0
-17.8
18.8
9.0
14.0
18.8
-2.0
14.0
4,725.7
3.2
1.9
-2.0
Gaborone Index
100
Kenya
Egypt
Mar.2013/
Dec.2012
2013
2012
Index
250
January
February
2012
4,722.3
4,579.9
4,746.5
4,638.8
19.0
18
18

19. Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 | 19
Africa in the World Economy
? Africa in the World Economy
Financial Issues ...
?
2.5 - AFRICA: Summary of financial indicators
Table 12
: Exchange rates
(national currency per US$)
Period average
2011
Q.2
Country
Algeria
Angola
Benin
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cameroon
Cape Verde
Central African Rep.
Chad
Comoros
Congo, Dem. Rep. of
Congo, Republic of
Côte d'Ivoire
Djibouti
Egypt
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Gabon
Gambia, The
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Kenya
Lesotho
Liberia
Libya
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Mauritania
Mauritius
Morocco
Mozambique
Namibia
Niger
Nigeria
Rwanda
São Tomé & Príncipe
Senegal
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
South Africa
Sudan
Swaziland
Tanzania
Togo
Tunisia
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe
71.87
93.28
455.8
6.524
455.8
1239.3
455.8
76.62
455.8
455.8
341.8
923.2
455.8
455.7
177.7
5.951
455.8
15.38
16.887
455.8
28.00
1.510
6718.8
455.8
86.1
6.793
72.32
1.209
1961.4
150.8
455.8
274.4
27.95
7.870
30.13
6.793
455.8
155.4
600.2
17022.8
455.76
12.24
4344.5
6.793
2.361
6.793
1530.1
455.8
1.373
2405.2
4.756
322.4
Chief Economist Complex, ECON
Q.3
73.09
93.61
464.9
6.770
464.9
1254.7
464.9
78.15
464.9
464.9
348.7
921.8
464.9
464.8
177.7
5.961
464.9
15.38
17.083
464.9
28.43
1.532
6841.0
464.9
93.2
7.145
72.48
1.214
1983.4
159.3
464.9
280.0
28.29
8.001
27.32
7.145
464.9
154.3
600.1
17364.6
464.92
12.26
4385.5
7.145
2.361
7.145
1609.3
464.9
1.390
2719.1
4.890
322.4
2012
Q.4
74.37
94.90
486.7
7.413
486.7
1313.3
486.7
81.82
486.7
486.7
365.1
910.3
486.7
487.0
177.7
5.991
486.7
15.38
17.235
486.7
28.93
1.625
6997.2
486.7
93.7
8.099
71.94
1.237
2123.7
165.3
486.7
288.2
29.14
8.310
26.81
8.099
486.7
160.3
602.1
18174.5
486.74
12.91
4404.0
8.099
2.361
8.099
1649.0
486.7
1.451
2609.1
5.032
322.4
Q.1
74.95
95.05
500.4
7.307
500.4
1392.5
500.4
84.12
500.4
500.4
375.3
919.7
500.4
500.4
177.7
6.035
500.4
15.38
17.399
500.4
30.32
1.711
7162.8
500.4
84.1
7.757
73.34
1.253
2185.8
165.9
500.4
292.2
29.19
8.493
27.29
7.757
500.4
159.2
605.4
18702.6
500.41
13.95
4362.7
7.757
2.361
7.757
1589.1
500.4
1.508
2406.9
5.209
322.4
Q.2
75.59
95.29
511.7
7.586
511.7
1404.9
511.7
86.01
511.7
511.7
383.7
922.3
511.7
511.5
177.7
6.043
511.7
15.38
17.633
511.7
30.26
1.871
7096.6
511.7
84.1
8.126
74.81
1.263
2123.6
225.3
511.7
293.3
29.67
8.645
27.80
8.126
511.7
159.4
608.5
19094.9
511.65
14.23
4344.6
8.126
2.462
8.126
1584.7
511.7
1.568
2489.9
5.234
322.4
2013
Q.3
80.71
95.42
524.4
7.702
524.4
1464.1
524.4
88.15
524.4
524.4
393.3
919.1
524.4
524.2
177.7
6.080
524.4
15.38
17.957
524.4
32.15
1.936
7175.9
524.4
84.3
8.260
73.64
1.272
2248.7
283.0
524.4
300.5
30.70
8.819
28.42
8.260
524.4
159.3
614.8
19583.2
524.40
13.57
4337.1
8.260
3.887
8.260
1579.4
524.4
1.602
2495.1
4.947
322.4
Q.4
79.19
95.63
505.6
7.884
505.6
1505.3
505.6
85.00
505.6
505.6
379.2
915.9
505.6
505.6
177.7
6.124
505.6
15.38
18.165
505.6
32.04
1.890
7002.4
505.6
85.6
8.690
72.27
1.259
2238.3
322.9
505.6
299.2
30.90
8.566
29.58
8.690
505.6
157.3
628.3
18893.0
505.65
13.10
4334.5
8.690
3.895
8.690
1578.8
505.6
1.571
2626.3
5.200
322.4
Q.1
78.52
96.02
496.9
8.052
496.9
1592.6
496.9
83.53
496.9
496.9
372.7
917.1
496.9
497.1
177.7
6.688
496.9
15.38
18.387
496.9
33.70
1.913
7008.8
496.9
86.7
8.954
...
...
2223.2
366.7
496.9
296.6
30.76
8.447
30.23
8.954
496.9
157.6
633.2
18548.8
496.88
12.51
4324.2
8.954
3.908
8.954
1589.8
496.9
1.566
2657.6
5.339
322.4

20. 20 | Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013
Africa in the World Economy
? Africa in the World Economy
Financial Issues ...
?
2.5 - AFRICA: Summary of financial indicators
Table 13
: International reserves
(Billions of US$)
as at end of period
2011
2012
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
Q.2
Algeria
Angola
Benin
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cameroon
Cape Verde
Central African Republic
Chad
Comoros
Congo, Dem. Rep.
Congo, Rep.
Côte d'Ivoire
Djibouti
Egypt
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea
Gabon
Gambia, The
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Kenya
Liberia
Libya
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Mauritania
Mauritius
Morocco
Mozambique
Namibia
Niger
Nigeria
Rwanda
Sao Tome and Principe
Senegal
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
South Africa
Sudan
Swaziland
Tanzania
Togo
Tunisia
Uganda
Zambia
169.9
20.48
1.278
8.374
1.077
0.345
3.748
0.374
0.189
0.825
0.166
1.397
5.190
3.538
0.257
27.68
2.234
0.116
1.925
0.203
4.672
0.118
0.159
4.172
0.476
107.4
1.209
0.199
1.373
0.311
2.575
22.84
2.126
1.536
0.723
35.88
0.707
0.045
2.206
0.275
0.425
43.51
2.929
0.677
3.643
0.894
9.199
2.434
2.106
176.2
24.06
1.187
8.578
1.026
0.342
3.488
0.317
0.199
0.882
0.151
1.402
5.716
4.049
0.249
23.51
3.630
0.117
2.503
0.221
4.928
0.117
0.250
4.173
0.499
107.2
1.254
0.227
1.454
0.411
2.698
22.13
2.352
1.821
0.722
34.57
0.748
0.048
2.552
0.296
0.416
43.98
2.415
0.639
3.498
0.865
7.712
2.273
2.588
176.6
25.57
1.077
8.301
0.923
0.303
3.239
0.309
0.165
0.900
0.146
1.260
5.859
4.204
0.224
20.96
2.557
0.116
2.282
0.195
4.757
0.112
0.220
4.007
0.493
104.1
1.236
0.270
1.367
0.420
2.559
20.57
2.371
1.432
0.618
34.36
0.825
0.055
2.454
0.279
0.420
43.21
0.667
0.573
3.471
0.759
7.998
2.479
2.556
182.8
26.48
0.887
8.082
0.957
0.294
3.199
0.339
0.155
0.951
0.155
1.268
5.641
4.316
0.244
14.92
3.054
0.115
2.157
0.223
5.483
0.103
0.220
4.264
0.513
104.8
1.279
0.197
1.379
0.485
2.583
19.53
2.469
1.787
0.673
35.21
1.050
0.051
1.946
0.290
0.439
42.60
0.193
0.601
3.726
0.774
7.454
2.617
2.324
187.1
27.39
1.026
8.066
0.726
0.289
3.095
0.344
0.169
0.866
0.150
1.351
5.565
4.270
0.253
11.82
4.079
...
2.058
0.217
4.741
0.104
0.182
4.697
0.520
110.0
1.295
0.148
1.289
0.509
2.590
18.42
2.315
1.604
0.712
37.79
0.900
0.053
2.090
0.304
0.453
43.98
0.194
0.580
3.534
0.658
7.084
2.741
2.319
187.0
30.73
0.912
7.831
0.815
0.273
3.059
0.358
0.146
0.872
0.157
1.406
5.657
3.890
0.258
12.15
3.066
...
2.198
0.233
4.175
...
0.211
5.309
0.495
110.5
1.176
0.093
1.113
0.569
2.601
15.98
2.473
1.734
0.796
37.95
0.860
0.036
1.856
0.305
0.442
42.92
0.190
0.614
3.788
0.548
6.359
2.859
2.440
188.9
30.43
0.800
7.794
0.908
0.283
3.033
0.377
0.166
0.952
0.172
1.508
5.848
3.695
0.253
11.66
4.287
...
2.295
0.223
4.193
...
0.183
5.495
0.481
115.438
1.150
0.186
1.181
0.821
2.712
15.63
2.867
1.675
0.897
43.224
...
0.041
1.994
0.311
0.445
43.85
0.193
0.670
4.045
0.534
6.494
3.098
3.319
Zimbabwe
0.699
0.791
0.686
0.659
0.624
0.573
0.567
Country
Q.3
Q.4
191.3
30.98
0.713
7.628
1.025
0.307
3.381
0.376
0.158
1.156
...
1.633
5.550
3.928
0.249
11.63
4.397
...
2.352
0.236
5.368
...
0.165
5.711
0.500
...
1.191
0.223
1.341
0.949
2.837
16.36
2.770
1.746
1.015
46.405
...
0.052
2.082
0.319
0.478
44.00
0.193
0.741
4.053
0.442
8.357
3.169
3.042
0.574
* provisional
Chief Economist Complex, ECON

21. Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 | 21
? Data sources and descriptions
Graph
Cover page
Description and technical observations
Business confidence in USA, Eurozone and Japan / Africa's exports by destination (in %)
Data Sources
International databases / WTO
1
Volume of Gross Domestic Product for Advanced Economies (Quarterly data seasonally adjusted (sa), growth rate
compared to the previous quarter)
OECD
2
Volume of Gross Domestic Product for Emerging Economies (Quarterly data, growth rate compared to the same
quarter of the previous year)
OECD
3
Harmonized Unemployment Rate in United States and Euro zone
(monthly data, % of active population)
OECD
4
Consumer Prices all Items for Advanced Economies (monthly data, percentage change on the same period of the
previous year)
OECD
5
Exchange rates in US$ for the Euro, the Yen and the Yuan
Monthly average
OECD
6
Share price for US, Japan, Europe and Shangai
7
Africa: growth of GDP volume (quarterly data at market prices seasonally adjusted, % change compared to the
same quarter of the previous year)
8
Manufacturing Production for selected African countries (monthly data sa, % change compared to the same month
of the previous year)
9
North Africa: growth of GDP volume (quarterly data at market prices seasonally adjusted, % change compared to
the same quarter of the previous year)
AfDB Statistics Department,
Regional Member Countries and
IMF
10
Crude Oil Production for African member countries of OPEC (monthly data; 1 000 barrel / day)
AfDB Statistics Department and
OPEC
11
Manufacturing Production for Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire (quarterly data sa, % change compared to the same
quarter of the previous year)
12 - 13 -14
Focus
World volume imports of goods / Exports and imports values in current US dollar for selected African countries
(quarterly data, current values, % change compared to the same quarter of the previous year)
Major economic statistics
Bloomberg
AfDB Statistics Department,
Regional Member Countries and
IMF
Regional Member Countries
Regional Member Countries
OECD / WTO
Bank of Ghana / Ghana Statistical
Services
15
Commodity prices
(monthly indexes, 100=2005)
IMF, IFS Database
16
Oil prices (WTI and Brent)
(US$ per barrel)
IMF, IFS Database
17
Cocoa beans monthly prices
(US$ per metric tonne)
IMF, IFS Database
18 -20
Inflation on consumer prices in selected African countries (monthly data, % change compared to the same quarter
of the previous year)
AfDB Statistics Department,
Regional Member Countries and
IMF
21
Inflation on manufacturing producer prices in selected African countries (monthly data, % change compared to the
same quarter of the previous year)
AfDB Statistics Department,
Regional Member Countries and
IMF
22
South Africa : Money aggregate M3 and claims on private sector (monthly sa data, annual growth in %)
23
Gross foreign reserves South Africa and Egypt (billions of US$)
24 & 26
Exchange rates (national currency per US$, monthly average rates)
25 & 27
Stock market indexes for selected African countries (end of period quotes, 100=2005)
SARB
World Bank and national sources
AfDB Statistics Department, Central
Banks and IMF
National Stock Exchanges

22. 22 | Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013
? Data sources and descriptions
Table
Data Sources
Page
1
OECD, IMF, National Bureau of Statistics of China and Federal State Statistics Service of Russia
4
2
OECD, EUROSTAT
4
3
Bloomberg OECD
4
4
AfDB Statistics Department and national statistical agencies
6
5
WTO
11
6
World Bank and ational sources
11
7
World Bank
13
8
National sources, World Bank and IMF
15
9
National Statistics sources and IMF
16
10
World Bank and National sources
18
11
National Statistics sources and international databases
18
12
World Bank
19
13
World Bank
20

23. Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 | 23