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Equity Strategist
                              Minimum Volatility
                               Equity Solutions – Euro Stoxx 50 Index
                               October 2012




                                                                                    Q M S Advisors
                                                                                     .    .

This material does not constitute investment advice and should not be viewed as                tel: 078 922 08 77
a current or past recommendation or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any     e-mail: info@qmsadv.com
securities or to adopt any investment strategy.                                      website: www.qmsadv.com
Low Volatility Strategy
 Risk Efficiency in Passive Investing

            Enhancing Long-Term Portfolio Performance while
GOAL
            Diminishing Equity Risks

  Ø Delivering the best risk/return trade-of:
        Ø Since the 1960s, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) brought an elegant solution
          to the optimization problem, arguing that the most efficient portfolio is necessarily a
          broad market portfolio weighted by market capitalization of stocks.
        Ø This corresponds to performing mean-variance optimization with market implied
          forecasts of risk and returns.
  Ø Market-capitalization weighted portfolio
        Ø The only portfolio that is truly "passive" in its objective on the mean-variance
          frontier is the Minimum Variance Portfolio (MVP).
        Ø MVP is an optimal portfolio that is constructed by minimizing portfolio variance. The
          minimum variance construction does not use stocks' expected returns as inputs, and
          relies only on the covariance matrix.
  Ø Risk-efficient passive equity allocation:
        Ø There is a growing body of evidence of outsized ex-post risk-adjusted performance
          of minimum variance portfolios.

       Q.M.S Advisors   | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com
                                                                                                         Page 1
Low Volatility Strategy
       Risk Efficiency in Passive Investing

    Based on Historical Weekly Data from December 29th                                       Eurostoxx 50 Low Volatility
    2006 to the October 12th 2012                                                               TR (*)     Strategy (*)

    Historical Returns                                                                           -8.792%           2.550%
    Historical Volatility                                                                        27.08%            20.39%
    Historical Returns/Risk Ratio                                                                 -0.3247           0.1250
    Maximum Drawdown                                                                             -62.75%           -46.73%
    Historical Skewness                                                                            -1.16             -1.50
    Historical Kurtosis                                                                             3.79             6.67
    Jarque-Bera                                                                                     248               674
    Jarque-Bera: Chi-Test                                                                           0.99             0.00

   Attractive historical statistical features
   Ø    The low volatility strategy offers attractive statistical features whether considered on a
        standalone or total portfolio basis, and this despite the extreme market environment
        considered in our analysis.


Source: Bloomberg, QMS Advisors

            Q.M.S Advisors        | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com
                                                                                                                             Page 2
Low Volatility Strategy
    Performance
Based on Historical Data from Dec 29th 2006 to Oct 12st 2012
                                                              140



                                                              120
                                                                                                                                                                                                            115.75
    Historical Performance - Base 100 on December 26th 2006




                                                              100



                                                              80



                                                              60                                                                                                                                            58.60



                                                              40



                                                              20



                                                               0
                                                              29.12.06   29.06.07    29.12.07     29.06.08     29.12.08    29.06.09     29.12.09   29.06.10   29.12.10   29.06.11     29.12.11   29.06.12


                                                              -20
                                                                                    Performance Differential: Low Volatility Strategy (*)          Performance: Eurostoxx 50 TR (*)
                                                                                    Performance: Low Volatility Strategy (*)
                                                                    Q.M.S Advisors               | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Page 3
Low Volatility Strategy
    Significantly Reduced Volatility
Based on Historical Data from Dec 29th 2006 to Oct 12st 2012
                                              50%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            -35%


                                              45%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             -30%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Volatility Differential (in %, inverted scale)
                                              40%
    Volatility (52 Weeks Rolling in % p.a.)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             -25%
                                              35%


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             -20%
                                              30%


                                              25%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             -15%


                                              20%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             -10%

                                              15%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             -5%
                                              10%


                                              5%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             0%
                                                    04.01.2008

                                                                 04.03.2008

                                                                              04.05.2008

                                                                                           04.07.2008

                                                                                                        04.09.2008

                                                                                                                     04.11.2008

                                                                                                                                  04.01.2009

                                                                                                                                               04.03.2009

                                                                                                                                                            04.05.2009

                                                                                                                                                                         04.07.2009

                                                                                                                                                                                      04.09.2009

                                                                                                                                                                                                   04.11.2009

                                                                                                                                                                                                                04.01.2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                                             04.03.2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          04.05.2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       04.07.2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    04.09.2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 04.11.2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              04.01.2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           04.03.2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        04.05.2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     04.07.2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  04.09.2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               04.11.2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            04.01.2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         04.03.2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      04.05.2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   04.07.2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                04.09.2012
                                                                                                            Volatility Differential: Low Volatility Strategy (*)                                                                                                                 Volatility (Rolling 52 Weeks) Eurostoxx 50 TR (*)

                                                                                                            Volatility (Rolling 52 Weeks) Low Volatility Strategy (*)

                                                                 Q.M.S Advisors                                                                | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Page 4
Low Volatility Strategy
    Consistently Higher Information Ratios
Based on Historical Data from Dec 29th 2006 to Oct 12st 2012
                                           4                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              1.2




                                           3                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              1




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Information Ratio Differential (52 Weeks Rolling)
    Information Ratio (52 Weeks Rolling)




                                           2                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              0.8




                                           1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              0.6




                                           0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              0.4
                                                28.12.2007

                                                             28.02.2008

                                                                          28.04.2008

                                                                                       28.06.2008

                                                                                                    28.08.2008

                                                                                                                 28.10.2008

                                                                                                                              28.12.2008

                                                                                                                                           28.02.2009

                                                                                                                                                        28.04.2009

                                                                                                                                                                     28.06.2009

                                                                                                                                                                                  28.08.2009

                                                                                                                                                                                               28.10.2009

                                                                                                                                                                                                            28.12.2009

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          28.02.2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       28.04.2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    28.06.2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 28.08.2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              28.10.2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           28.12.2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        28.02.2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     28.04.2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  28.06.2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               28.08.2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            28.10.2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         28.12.2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      28.02.2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   28.04.2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                28.06.2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             28.08.2012
                                           -1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             0.2




                                           -2                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             0


                                            Information Ratio Differential: Low Volatility Strategy (*)                                                                                                                  Information Ratio: Eurostoxx 50 TR (*)                                                                                     Information Ratio: Low Volatility Strategy (*)


                                                                  Q.M.S Advisors                                                                | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Page 5
Maximum Drawdown from December 29th 2006 (in %)


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  0%




                                                                                                                                                                                                           -70%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   -60%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           -50%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        -40%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     -30%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  -20%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           -10%
                                                                                                                                                                                              29.12.2006
                                                                                                                                                                                              28.02.2007
                                                                                                                                                                                              29.04.2007
                                                                                                                                                                                              29.06.2007
                                                                                                                                                                                              29.08.2007
                                                                                                                                                                                              29.10.2007
                                                                                                                                                                                              29.12.2007
                                                                                                                                                                                              29.02.2008




  Q.M.S Advisors
                                                                                                                                                                                              29.04.2008
                                                                                                                                                                                              29.06.2008
                                                                                                                                                                                              29.08.2008
                                                                                                                                                                                              29.10.2008
                                                                                                                                                                                              29.12.2008
                                                                                                                                                                                              28.02.2009
                                                                                                                                                                                              29.04.2009




                                                                                    Maximum Drawdown: Low Volatility Strategy (*)
                                                                                                                                                                                              29.06.2009
                                                                                                                                                                                              29.08.2009




                                                                                                                                    Max. Drawdown Differential: Low Volatility Strategy (*)
                                                                                                                                                                                              29.10.2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Reduced Drawdown Risks
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Based on Historical Data from Dec 29th 2006 to Oct 12st 2012




                                                                                                                                                                                              29.12.2009
                                                                                                                                                                                              28.02.2010
                                                                                                                                                                                              29.04.2010
                                                                                                                                                                                              29.06.2010
                                                                                                                                                                                              29.08.2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Low Volatility Strategy




                                                                                                                                                                                              29.10.2010
                                                                                                                                                                                              29.12.2010
                                                                                                                                                                                              28.02.2011
                                                                                                                                                                                              29.04.2011
                                                                                                                                                                                              29.06.2011
                                                                                                                                                                                              29.08.2011
   | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com




                                                                                                                                                                                              29.10.2011
                                                                                                                                                                                              29.12.2011
                                                                                                                                                                                              29.02.2012
                                                                                                                                    Maximum Drawdown: Eurostoxx 50 TR (*)




                                                                                                                                                                                              29.04.2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              29.06.2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              29.08.2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     8%




                                                                                                                                                                                                           -2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  18%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               28%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            38%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         48%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  58%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           M. Drawdown Differential (in %)
Page 6
Low Volatility Strategy
     Comparative Distribution of Weekly Returns
Based on Historical Data from Dec 29th 2006 to Oct 12st 2012
                                        25%                                                                                                                                      100%


                                                                                                                                                                                 90%


                                        20%                                                                                                                                      80%
    Fréquence (nombre d'observations)




                                                                                                                                                                                 70%


                                        15%                                                                                                                                      60%


                                                                                                                                                                                 50%


                                        10%                                                                                                                                      40%


                                                                                                                                                                                 30%


                                        5%                                                                                                                                       20%


                                                                                                                                                                                 10%


                                        0%                                                                                                                                       0%
                                              -20% -18% -16% -14% -12% -10% -8%             -6%   -4%   -2%    0%       2%   4%    6%     8%   10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22%


                                                              Low Volatility Strategy (*)         Eurostoxx 50 TR (*)        Eurostoxx 50 TR (*)   Low Volatility Strategy (*)

                                                Q.M.S Advisors            | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com
                                                                                                                                                                                        Page 7
Low Volatility Strategy
    Relative Weekly Distribution of Returns
Based on Historical Data from Dec 29th 2006 to Oct 12st 2012                                                     15%
                                     y = 0.725x + 0.002
                                     R2 = 0.928
                                                                                                                 10%


                                                                                                                  5%
    Low Volatility Strategy (*)




                                                                                                                  0%
                                  -30%        -25%        -20%         -15%            -10%            -5%              0%            5%    10%   15%

                                                                                                                  -5%


                                                                                                                -10%


                                                                                                                -15%


                                                                                                                -20%


                                                                                                                -25%


                                                                                                                -30%
                                                                                     Eurostoxx 50 TR (*)
                                     Q.M.S Advisors        | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com
                                                                                                                                                        Page 8
Low Volatility Strategy
    A Simple Approach to Higher Portfolio Efficiency
Ø   Low Volatility Strategies offer a simple, transparent and highly
    customizable way to tap one of the most recognized and documented
    source of alpha:
     Ø   This passive strategy utilizes a systematic approach that does not rely on
         forecasts of stock returns and uses as input only the covariance matrix.
     Ø The portfolio resulting from minimum variance optimization has the smallest
       ex-ante volatility, and exhibits a significant reduction in ex-post risk as well,
       with respect to the selected benchmark
          Ø Historically the strategy has produced significantly higher returns with
            lower realized volatility when compared to its benchmark; resulting in
            attractive Sharpe ratios.
     Ø Empirical evidence shows that the design of the optimization problem plays a
       much greater role when assuming homogeneous return estimates. This in
       turn results in allocations that maintain their promise: exhibiting lower risk in
       the future while giving full exposure to the equity market


         Q.M.S Advisors   | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com
                                                                                                           Page 9

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Equity Strategist - Minimum Variance Solutions

  • 1. Equity Strategist Minimum Volatility Equity Solutions – Euro Stoxx 50 Index October 2012 Q M S Advisors . . This material does not constitute investment advice and should not be viewed as tel: 078 922 08 77 a current or past recommendation or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any e-mail: info@qmsadv.com securities or to adopt any investment strategy. website: www.qmsadv.com
  • 2. Low Volatility Strategy Risk Efficiency in Passive Investing Enhancing Long-Term Portfolio Performance while GOAL Diminishing Equity Risks Ø Delivering the best risk/return trade-of: Ø Since the 1960s, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) brought an elegant solution to the optimization problem, arguing that the most efficient portfolio is necessarily a broad market portfolio weighted by market capitalization of stocks. Ø This corresponds to performing mean-variance optimization with market implied forecasts of risk and returns. Ø Market-capitalization weighted portfolio Ø The only portfolio that is truly "passive" in its objective on the mean-variance frontier is the Minimum Variance Portfolio (MVP). Ø MVP is an optimal portfolio that is constructed by minimizing portfolio variance. The minimum variance construction does not use stocks' expected returns as inputs, and relies only on the covariance matrix. Ø Risk-efficient passive equity allocation: Ø There is a growing body of evidence of outsized ex-post risk-adjusted performance of minimum variance portfolios. Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com Page 1
  • 3. Low Volatility Strategy Risk Efficiency in Passive Investing Based on Historical Weekly Data from December 29th Eurostoxx 50 Low Volatility 2006 to the October 12th 2012 TR (*) Strategy (*) Historical Returns -8.792% 2.550% Historical Volatility 27.08% 20.39% Historical Returns/Risk Ratio -0.3247 0.1250 Maximum Drawdown -62.75% -46.73% Historical Skewness -1.16 -1.50 Historical Kurtosis 3.79 6.67 Jarque-Bera 248 674 Jarque-Bera: Chi-Test 0.99 0.00 Attractive historical statistical features Ø The low volatility strategy offers attractive statistical features whether considered on a standalone or total portfolio basis, and this despite the extreme market environment considered in our analysis. Source: Bloomberg, QMS Advisors Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com Page 2
  • 4. Low Volatility Strategy Performance Based on Historical Data from Dec 29th 2006 to Oct 12st 2012 140 120 115.75 Historical Performance - Base 100 on December 26th 2006 100 80 60 58.60 40 20 0 29.12.06 29.06.07 29.12.07 29.06.08 29.12.08 29.06.09 29.12.09 29.06.10 29.12.10 29.06.11 29.12.11 29.06.12 -20 Performance Differential: Low Volatility Strategy (*) Performance: Eurostoxx 50 TR (*) Performance: Low Volatility Strategy (*) Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com Page 3
  • 5. Low Volatility Strategy Significantly Reduced Volatility Based on Historical Data from Dec 29th 2006 to Oct 12st 2012 50% -35% 45% -30% Volatility Differential (in %, inverted scale) 40% Volatility (52 Weeks Rolling in % p.a.) -25% 35% -20% 30% 25% -15% 20% -10% 15% -5% 10% 5% 0% 04.01.2008 04.03.2008 04.05.2008 04.07.2008 04.09.2008 04.11.2008 04.01.2009 04.03.2009 04.05.2009 04.07.2009 04.09.2009 04.11.2009 04.01.2010 04.03.2010 04.05.2010 04.07.2010 04.09.2010 04.11.2010 04.01.2011 04.03.2011 04.05.2011 04.07.2011 04.09.2011 04.11.2011 04.01.2012 04.03.2012 04.05.2012 04.07.2012 04.09.2012 Volatility Differential: Low Volatility Strategy (*) Volatility (Rolling 52 Weeks) Eurostoxx 50 TR (*) Volatility (Rolling 52 Weeks) Low Volatility Strategy (*) Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com Page 4
  • 6. Low Volatility Strategy Consistently Higher Information Ratios Based on Historical Data from Dec 29th 2006 to Oct 12st 2012 4 1.2 3 1 Information Ratio Differential (52 Weeks Rolling) Information Ratio (52 Weeks Rolling) 2 0.8 1 0.6 0 0.4 28.12.2007 28.02.2008 28.04.2008 28.06.2008 28.08.2008 28.10.2008 28.12.2008 28.02.2009 28.04.2009 28.06.2009 28.08.2009 28.10.2009 28.12.2009 28.02.2010 28.04.2010 28.06.2010 28.08.2010 28.10.2010 28.12.2010 28.02.2011 28.04.2011 28.06.2011 28.08.2011 28.10.2011 28.12.2011 28.02.2012 28.04.2012 28.06.2012 28.08.2012 -1 0.2 -2 0 Information Ratio Differential: Low Volatility Strategy (*) Information Ratio: Eurostoxx 50 TR (*) Information Ratio: Low Volatility Strategy (*) Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com Page 5
  • 7. Maximum Drawdown from December 29th 2006 (in %) 0% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 29.12.2006 28.02.2007 29.04.2007 29.06.2007 29.08.2007 29.10.2007 29.12.2007 29.02.2008 Q.M.S Advisors 29.04.2008 29.06.2008 29.08.2008 29.10.2008 29.12.2008 28.02.2009 29.04.2009 Maximum Drawdown: Low Volatility Strategy (*) 29.06.2009 29.08.2009 Max. Drawdown Differential: Low Volatility Strategy (*) 29.10.2009 Reduced Drawdown Risks Based on Historical Data from Dec 29th 2006 to Oct 12st 2012 29.12.2009 28.02.2010 29.04.2010 29.06.2010 29.08.2010 Low Volatility Strategy 29.10.2010 29.12.2010 28.02.2011 29.04.2011 29.06.2011 29.08.2011 | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com 29.10.2011 29.12.2011 29.02.2012 Maximum Drawdown: Eurostoxx 50 TR (*) 29.04.2012 29.06.2012 29.08.2012 8% -2% 18% 28% 38% 48% 58% M. Drawdown Differential (in %) Page 6
  • 8. Low Volatility Strategy Comparative Distribution of Weekly Returns Based on Historical Data from Dec 29th 2006 to Oct 12st 2012 25% 100% 90% 20% 80% Fréquence (nombre d'observations) 70% 15% 60% 50% 10% 40% 30% 5% 20% 10% 0% 0% -20% -18% -16% -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% Low Volatility Strategy (*) Eurostoxx 50 TR (*) Eurostoxx 50 TR (*) Low Volatility Strategy (*) Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com Page 7
  • 9. Low Volatility Strategy Relative Weekly Distribution of Returns Based on Historical Data from Dec 29th 2006 to Oct 12st 2012 15% y = 0.725x + 0.002 R2 = 0.928 10% 5% Low Volatility Strategy (*) 0% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% Eurostoxx 50 TR (*) Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com Page 8
  • 10. Low Volatility Strategy A Simple Approach to Higher Portfolio Efficiency Ø Low Volatility Strategies offer a simple, transparent and highly customizable way to tap one of the most recognized and documented source of alpha: Ø This passive strategy utilizes a systematic approach that does not rely on forecasts of stock returns and uses as input only the covariance matrix. Ø The portfolio resulting from minimum variance optimization has the smallest ex-ante volatility, and exhibits a significant reduction in ex-post risk as well, with respect to the selected benchmark Ø Historically the strategy has produced significantly higher returns with lower realized volatility when compared to its benchmark; resulting in attractive Sharpe ratios. Ø Empirical evidence shows that the design of the optimization problem plays a much greater role when assuming homogeneous return estimates. This in turn results in allocations that maintain their promise: exhibiting lower risk in the future while giving full exposure to the equity market Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com Page 9