The document discusses how agile teams can meet deadlines through epic budgeting. It describes calibrating estimates for epics based on historical team velocity data to set more accurate expectations. It also discusses adjusting scope if real data shows work exceeding deadlines, prioritizing work, and delivering in increments to track progress towards goals and highlight dependencies impacting schedules. Empirically recalibrating estimates and focusing on incremental delivery can help agile teams plan towards and meet deadlines in complex and uncertain environments.

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Epic Budgeting
How agile teams meet deadlines

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Agile teams are, well, agile…
• Quote – or picture – about agile teams doing what they want, when they want
https://www.business.com/articles/tech-team-missed-deadline/

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Agile teams are, well, agile…
http://stateofagile.versionone.com/

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Why do we care?
Governance
(accountable for competence)
https://www.redstonelearning.com/uploads/topiccategoryimages/35_image_project%20%20(9).png

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Why do we care?
Governance
(accountable for competence)
Budgeting
(time & materials vs. fixed price)
http://piweb.azureedge.net/articles/articlesshare/i/2013/fixed-price-sign.jpg

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Why do we care?
Governance
(accountable for competence)
Budgeting
(time & materials vs. fixed price)
Dependency Management
(you’ll need me when exactly?)
https://image.shutterstock.com/z/stock-photo-businessman-running-to-catch-bus-stop-217875652.jpg

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Vision Planning
Roadmap Planning
Release Planning
Release PlanningIteration
Planning
Daily
Planning
Five levels of planning
Annually Define a vision
Bi-annually
Rankfeatures in order of
delivery
Quarterly
Plan stories to be delivered
during next release cycle
Bi-weekly
Sprint planning, focussing on
delivery of sprint goal
Daily
Focus on daily planningof
team activities
Vision Planning
Roadmap Planning
5 Levels of Agile Planning: From Enterprise Product Vision to Team Stand-up, Hubert Smits (2006)

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Linear systems with low levels
of complexity don’t change –
a work breakdown structure is
the cheapest way of planning
delivery. Construction is a
concrete example (sorry)
Projects require planning
http://www.barbour-abi.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/BC-Leads_Home-Banner1.jpg

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Planning in a world of uncertainty
“In preparing for battle I
have always found that
plans are useless, but
planning is indispensable.”
Dwight D. Eisenhower Complex worlds change
too fast – they are non-
linear. Therefore more
information only tells you
about the current state,
not the future state.

10. agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. ©2017
Crossing the divide
• Complicated, but not complex
• Driving from Calgary to Vancouver
Plan:
Calgary
Banff
Golden
Revelstoke
Kamloops
Merritt
Hope
Vancouver

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Minimum Viable Product as an Epic/Story Map

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2. Prioritize Epics
1. Write Epics
4. Calibrate
Epics
3b. Or Create &
Size Stories
3a. Get
Historical
Data

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Burnups are only
as good as your
calibration…

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Team Delivery is below
expectations
We are going to miss our deadline!
?!
“Dave, this is also exactly related to a
scenario you pointed to during PO
training as a problem, where there is a
sustained period (start of sprint or
not) where there is no burndown
activity.
1-2 days of no delivery should be a flag
for action from the PO and Scrum
Master, and here we see 6 days at the
beginning and3 days mid-sprint.

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We are going to miss our deadline…
…by years!!
“We expectto know, at the start of
a project, how long the projectwill
take and how much it will cost for
full delivery.
We can’t do that right now in
Agile. Internal visibility during the
project means nothing; we need
visibility on whether or not the IS
people will deliver what they are
supposed to (ex-business change
orders), all during the
project. Again, right now we can’t
do that. And we expect that.”

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2. Prioritize Epics
1. Write Epics
4. Calibrate
Epics
5. Re-estimate Epic
Size
3a. Get
Historical
Data
3b. Or Create &
Size Stories

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Epic
Epic
Ideally, the epic breaks
down into stories that add
up to the estimated epic size
…but back in the
real world this
never happens
Epic Sum of Stories=
=
<

18. agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. ©2017
2. Prioritize Epics
1. Write Epics
4. Calibrate
Epics
5. Re-estimate
Epic Size
3a. Get
Historical
Data
3b. Or Create &
Size Stories

19. agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. ©2017
2. Prioritize Epics
1. Write Epics
3b. Or Create &
Size Stories
5. Adjust Scope
3a. Get
Historical
Data
4. Calibrate
Epics

20. agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. ©2017
Month
T-shirt
Size
Actual
October L 85
January M 47
S 17
M 62
L 72
M 54
M 37
M 43
March S 21
S 26
S 18
M 18
SUM 500

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T-Shirt
Size
Calibrated
Average
Ranges
S 21 17 - 26
M 44 37 - 62
L 79 72 - 85
Expected
20
40
80

22. agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. ©2017
Month
T-shirt
Size
Actual Expected
October L 85 80
January M 47 40
S 17 20
M 62 40
L 72 80
M 54 40
M 37 40
M 43 40
March S 21 20
S 26 20
S 18 20
M 18 40
SUM 500 480

23. agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. ©2017
Month
T-shirt
Size
Actual Expected
October L 85 80
January M 47 40
S 17 20
M 62 40
L 72 80
M 54 40
M 37 40
M 43 40
March S 21 20
S 26 20
S 18 20
M 18 40
SUM 500 480
Variance
-5
-7
3
-22
8
-14
3
-4
-1
-6
2
22
-20

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How do I manage scope creep
as real data pushes planned
work beyond my deadline?
Drop these
Build these

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https://www.nosegraze.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/is-that-it-life.jpg
http://blogs.brighton.ac.uk/lr190/files/2015/01/keep_calm_not_over_yet-1252m12.png

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Crossing the divide
• Complicated, but not complex
• Driving from Calgary to Vancouver
We’ve
travelled
256 km!

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Thedetailsmatter…

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Crossing the divide
• Complicated, but not complex
• Driving from Calgary to Vancouver
We’re at Revelstoke
– it took 6h 34m.
We’re nearly 2h
behind schedule.

29. agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. ©2017
Incremental delivery saves the day
http://vignette4.wikia.nocookie.net/creepypasta/images/3/31/Headlights_and_dark_road.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20150428084835
• Empirically recalibrate
epics based on history
• Re-focus on delivering
increments
• Show experiences
delivered, not worked on
• Highlight dependencies
that impact public launch

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Thank you!
@davesharrock
dave.sharrock@agile42.com
• Epic budgeting enables agile
planning towards a deadline
• Product increments enable
accurate tracking towards a goal

31. agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. ©2017
compliance international B2B MBAEnglish IPO
agile husbandstart-up technology
eCommerce newly-minted Canadian
Executiveleanstartup outsourcing father
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B2C data analysis kanban seismology PhD
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dave.sharrock@agile42.com
twitter: @davesharrock
Certified Enterprise Coach (CEC)
Certified Scrum Trainer™ (CST)
Dave Sharrock