The Solar Future DE - Ingmar Wilhelm "Can solar PV compete with grid energy in Italy by 2013?"

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Mr Ingmar Wilhelm; Executive Vice President at ENEL

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The Solar Future DE - Ingmar Wilhelm "Can solar PV compete with grid energy in Italy by 2013?"

  1. 1. The future of the Photovoltaic market Ingmar WILHELM Executive Vice President Enel Green Power S.p.A. The Solar Future II – Munich - 8th June 2010
  2. 2. Agenda Solarplaza Conference Munich - 8th June 2010 1
  3. 3. In 2009, all renewable technologies have grown as expected Global installed Global installed Technology base base Δ capacity Δ Expected growth Investments 2008 2009 GW % CAGR 2008-2020 2009 - € bn Hydro Biomass Geothermal Wind Solar TOTAL ~1.155 GW ~1.230 GW +77 7% 9% Source: Enel estimates based on IEA, EPIA, GWEC, EER. * Calculated on 2008 equipment value Solarplaza Conference Munich - 8th June 2010 2
  4. 4. Enel Green Power is active in all key technologies Technology Net installed capacity Key areas of activity 2009 Hydro Italy – Iberia – Europe – North America – Latin America Geothermal Italy – North America – Latin America Wind Italy – Iberia – Europe – North America – Latin America Solar Iberia - Italy Biomass Iberia – North America and other TOTAL 5.666 MW Solarplaza Conference Munich - 8th June 2010 3
  5. 5. Enel Green Power: portfolio of markets Enel Green Power North America 2009 788 MW Capacity installed 5.666 MW Energy produced: 20.7 TWh France 68 MW Bulgaria 21 MW Latin America 667 MW Iberia Greece Italy 1,353 MW 133 MW 2,637 MW Solarplaza Conference Munich - 8th June 2010 4
  6. 6. Enel Green Power business model along the PV value chain Develop Manufacturing Distribu Constru O&M ment tion ction •  uilding & B •  upplying of S •  and Scouting L •  inal design F •  lant visual P Major Production photovoltaic inspection •  ue diligence D •  odules, M content Equipment components inverters, BOS •  V testing P •  onceptual C integration design •  V field P •  lant certification P measurement Enel Green Long Term Project lead In-house : own plants Enel.si Make and buy Power Partnership Outsourcing Enel.si franchisees •  lexible F •  rocurement P •  edicated D •  pecialized S •  ombined C contracts development engineering team: O&M with •  ranchising F and engineering Construction existing •  et of asset- S network with team Project renewables Activity based and over 500 management commercial entrepreneurs •  etwork of N long-term PV •  ver 100 MW of O supply installers PV installed in options throughout past three under study Italy years Solarplaza Conference Munich - 8th June 2010 5
  7. 7. Agenda Solarplaza Conference Munich - 8th June 2010 6
  8. 8. Global cumulative PV growth by markets source EPIA •  Impressive PV growth in 2009, even more important in 2010 •  Europe is strongest area with 70% market share •  However: global supply and demand scenario unsustainable Solarplaza Conference Munich - 8th June 2010 7
  9. 9. The future: Evolution of PV levelized cost of electricity •  Residential segment can reach grid parity before 2015 •  Wholesale grid parity in reach by 2020 •  However: what is grid parity and what are the cascade effects? Solarplaza Conference Munich - 8th June 2010 8
  10. 10. The future: Pricing range for larger systems in €/kW 2,200 to 2.500 •  Cost reduction is accelerated compared to all 2008 scenarios •  Cost levels anticipated by 2 to 3 years •  Price impact from demand and supply balance to be seen Solarplaza Conference Munich - 8th June 2010 9
  11. 11. Future PV growth scenarios for Europe •  PV growth can reach up to 10,000 MW in Europe in 2010 •  PV to become a multi-segment mainstream energy resource •  PV growth potential until 2020 is enormous Solarplaza Conference Munich - 8th June 2010 10
  12. 12. Agenda Solarplaza Conference Munich - 8th June 2010 11
  13. 13. Growth of the Photovoltaic Market in Italy 2006 - 2009 Number of PV plants 1.468 6.356 24.136 42.500 10 MWp 71 MWp 338 MWp 712 MWp = Ground (> 980 kWp) = Roof - Business (7 kWp ÷ 980 kWp) = Roof - residential (1 kWp ÷ 6 kWp) Source: GSE Up-date May 2010 Solarplaza Conference Munich - 8th June 2010 12
  14. 14. Photovoltaic Installations in Italy as of 2009 Source: GSE, update May 2010 PV installations as % of total •  Puglia region is single most important area for PV installations •  Leading macro-areas are still the North and the Centre of Italy •  Rise of the Southern Area is to happen in the next three years Solarplaza Conference Munich - 8th June 2010 13
  15. 15. Photovoltaic Installations in Italy as of 2009 Source: GSE, update May 2010 Capacity in MW Thousands of units Solarplaza Conference Munich - 8th June 2010 14
  16. 16. Photovoltaic Installations in Italy as of 2009 Share of module technology per region in % Source: GSE, update May 2010 Monocrystalline Polycrystalline Thin film Solarplaza Conference Munich - 8th June 2010 15
  17. 17. Is this the medium term growth path of PV in Italy ? Over Over ca. ca. ≥1 1,000 MW 1,000 MW MWp 1,000 MW 1,000 MW < 1 MWp < 6kWp 712 MW 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 •  potential for major growth in 2010 and 2011 •  however new decree still to be issued •  tariffs per segments to be seen Overall goal: create a stable and lasting growth momentum Solarplaza Conference Munich - 8th June 2010 16
  18. 18. How much can renewable energies grow in Italy? Power generation in TWh from 2002 to 2008 and forecast 2020 ≈ 100 TWh Hydro Solar Wind Biomass Geothermal 7 6 5,5 Solarplaza Conference Munich - 8th June 2010 17
  19. 19. Agenda Solarplaza Conference Munich - 8th June 2010 18
  20. 20. Increasing importance of Smart Grids: a key enabler for distributed PV generation End user real time Multi-directional Plug & Play information and participation ‘flows’ technologies Central and distributed Seamless intelligence integration of new applications Smart equipments and power electronics Central and distributed resources Solarplaza Conference Munich - 8th June 2010 19
  21. 21. Smart Grids : Roadmap Enel SMART GRIDS 20-20-20 FULL ROLL-OUT Smart Grids EUROPEAN ELECTRICITY Customers become aware and participate actively Level 5: Smart Customers Customers maturity level Management Level 4: Smart Energy Management of end-use energy efficiency, aggregation, retail GRID INITIATIVE Functional levels SMART GRIDS Level 3: Smart Integration Renewable energy, DG, electric vehicles, electricity storage and aggregation Distribution Network More automated medium voltage distribution networks with self healing capabilities. Monitored and controlled low voltage networks. IT supported monitoring process Level 2: Smart Distribution network and processes Level 1: Smart Pan-European Transmission network Transmission Network Electricity generation Level 0: New generation technologies Frame-Program 7: Pilots •  Operative grids •  Electrical and Hybrid vehicle infrastructures EU Frame Program 7 •  ADDRESS •  Grid4Vehicles ENEL PROJECTS •  Smart Info, Domanda attiva, •  Banda larga , E- Mobility ENEL DEPLOYMENT •  Telegestore •  Grid Automation •  Work Force Mngm •  Asset Management // 2000 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 Solarplaza Conference Munich - 8th June 2010 20
  22. 22. Outlook on Photovoltaic market • Increasing competitiveness of all renewables • Increasing share of renewables driven by Photovoltaics and Wind • Major goals of energy policy : •  provide investment security •  create a stable and sustainable growth momentum • Power system flexibility requirements increase • The potential of Photovoltaic power is enormous because: •  Variety of technologies •  Important efficiency and productivity improvements still ahead •  Proximity to demand •  Variety of solutions and full architectural integration Solarplaza Conference Munich - 8th June 2010 21

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