EOG Resources Risk Analysis

Exchange
Sector
Industry
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For any concerns, questions, or inquiries, please contact Kirby Jackson at kirby@saibusresearch.com.
US$ 115.71
KEY STATISTICS
RISK SUMMARY
Total business risk is broken down Five Elements: Creditworthiness, Efficiency, Profitability, Inherent Stability, and Future Prospects. The Five Elements are broken down into 46 risk factors, which
are evaluated to grasp the fundamental risk position of a company. The results of this process are linked to the debt and equity components of the weighted average cost of capital, generating a
risk-adjusted discount rate. Below is a summary of the Five Elements.
BUSINESS SUMMARY
EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG), is engaged in the exploration, development, production and marketing of crude oil and natural gas. The Company operates in producing basins in the United States,
Canada, The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago (Trinidad), the United Kingdom, The People's Republic of China (China) and the Argentine Republic (Argentina), among others. As of December 31,
2014, EOG's total estimated net proved reserves were 2,497 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBoe), of which 1,140 million barrels (MMBbl) are crude oil and condensate reserves, 467 MMBbl
are natural gas liquids (NGLs) reserves and 5,343 billion cubic feet, or 890 MMBoe, are natural gas reserves. As of December 31, 2014, approximately 97% of the Company's net proved reserves,
on a crude oil equivalent basis, are located in the United States and 3% in Trinidad. Its operations are focused in the basins in the United States, with a focus on crude oil.
Overall Risk
Stagnation
Value per
share
Growth
Value per
share
Wall Street
Estimate
US$ 102.54
EOG Resources Inc (EOG)
Equity Risk Report (June 16, 2015)
Book Value
per share
US$ 30.11
NYSE (NEW YORK); FRA (FRANKFURT);
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL GROWTH RATES
Page 1 of 9
US$ 49.45 Bil
Market
Capitalization
548.93 MilShares OutstandingUS$ 90.08Price per share
Oil & Gas Exploration and Production
Energy
* Operating Margin is adjusted for unusual items. Shareholder yield incorporates both dividend income and buybacks. Credit Rating is provided by Thomson Reuters. Beta is computed using a proprietary model.
Ideal Buy Price
Ideal Sell Price US$ 125.00
US$ 70.00
US$ 128.49
CREDITWORTHINESS Risk Level:
Low Risk High Risk
EFFICIENCY Risk Level:
Low Risk High Risk
PROFITABILITY Risk Level:
Low Risk High Risk
INHERENT STABILITY Risk Level:
Low Risk High Risk
FUTURE PROSPECTS Risk Level:
Low Risk High Risk





Measures the likelihood for surprise pertaining to the company's future earnings or ROIC performance
based on market-implied expectations and accuracy-adjusted analyst estimates.
Measures the reliability of the company's reported earnings and the trustw orthiness of its management, as
w ell as the strength of the company's economic moat through its fundamental performance relative to its
peers.
Measures the company's the strength of its returns on invested capital and the sustainability of its payouts
to shareholders.
Measures the efficiency of a company's historic performance in managing its w orking capital, in utilizing its
assets to generate revenues, and in regulating its fixed and variable costs.
Measures the balance street strength and the capacity to service both financial and operating obligations
w ithout sacrificing competitiveness or risking bankruptcy.
1 year 3 years 5 years 7 years 9 years 1 year 3 years 5 years 7 years 9 years
Stock Returns 9.71% 7.03% (1.24%) (4.10%) (1.77%) Operating Income 42.08% 26.75% 46.77% 17.97% 11.82%
Inflation Rate (0.56%) 0.83% 1.54% 1.29% 1.74% EBIT 36.41% 31.67% 38.43% 18.18% 11.97%
Sales 22.66% 22.08% 32.75% 22.66% 19.11% Net Income 28.61% 32.33% 37.69% 16.67% 11.54%
Gross Profits 26.75% 21.17% 29.94% 17.58% 14.32% NOPAT 29.72% 27.66% 44.69% 15.71% 10.66%
EBITDA 28.07% 22.41% 32.94% 19.01% 14.88% Free Cash Flow 49.69% (155.35%) (192.93%) (191.01%) (5.10%)
P/E 11.99 Return on Assets 13.56% Gross Margin 62.00% Liabilities to Assets 49.05% TR Credit Rating BBB
P/NOPAT 14.60 Return on Equity 26.75% *Operating Margin 35.57% NOPAT to Liabilities 21.34% NOA Turnover 1.06
P/FCF 132.05 Return on NOA 21.97% Net Margin 25.28% NOPAT to Annual Obligations 1.21 Total Asset Turnover 0.54
P/B 3.00 *Shareholder | Div Yield 0.8% | 0.7% NOPAT Margin 20.76% Current Ratio 1.60 Beta (5Y monthly) 1.26

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Industry
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US$ 30.11
Growth
Value per
share
Stagnation
Value per
share
US$ 128.49
Energy
Price per share Shares Outstanding 548.93 Mil
Market
Capitalization
US$ 49.45 Bil
US$ 90.08
US$ 115.71
Wall Street
Estimate
Page 2 of 9
The risk levels of the Five Elements represent weighted averages determined by the quantitative analyses of multiple factors that describe subfactor groups. The absolute values, historic volatility,
and observed trends of each individual subfactor are evaluated and ranked according to heuristic standards. The weights applied to each individual subfactor varies across industries. The table
below summarizes individual subfactors and scores their risk levels from 1 through 5, with 5 representing the highest risk.
RISK ASSESSMENT
US$ 102.54
Ideal Buy Price US$ 70.00
Overall Risk
Book Value
per share
PROFITABILITY

EFFICIENCY

CREDITWORTHINESS

Solvency (67% w eight) Liquidity (33% w eight)
1 2 3 4 5 N/A 2 1 2 3 4 5 N/A
1 2 3 4 5 N/A 3 1 2 3 4 5 N/A
1 2 3 4 5 N/A
Based on assets
Solvency Ratios Based on earnings
Debt Ratio
Probability of Bankruptcy
Higher debt ratios signify increased leverage and thus credit risk.
Solvency ratios compare a company's earnings to its overall liabilities. Low er solvency ratios
reflects greater probabilities for default and increased dependence on the credit markets.
Asset-based liquidity refers to the company's ability to cover short-term obligations
w ith its current assets. Low er ratios represent a w eaker ability to cover short-term
liabilities w ith liquid assets.
Default risk is measured w ith Altman Z-Scores and proprietary models provided by Thomson
Reuters. Low er Z-scores and higher model results indicate greater probabilities of bankruptcy in
the near future.
Earnings coverage multiples determine how easily a company can pay off debt,
interest, and other obligations. Multiples under 1 imply the high likelihood of sustained
financial leverage or underinvestment.
Working Capital Management (14% w eight) Asset Turnovers (17% w eight)
1 2 3 4 5 N/A 3 1 2 3 4 5 N/A
1 2 3 4 5 N/A 3 1 2 3 4 5 N/A
1 2 3 4 5 N/A
Cost Controls (69% w eight)
1 2 3 4 5 N/A
1 2 3 4 5 N/A
1 2 3 4 5 N/ANet Margins
Operating Margins
Payment rates describe how the company pays off its trade payables. Increasing divergence
from 100% suggests the company has a strong bargaining position against its suppliers or the
credit terms are being tightened.
Based on net operating assets
Based on total assets
Net operating asset turnovers are similar to total asset turnovers, but these directly
relate to operations . Greater volatility, declining long-term trends, and negative figures
signify inefficiency or excessive expansion.
Greater volatility and declining long-term trends signify inefficient asset utilization or
excessive expansion.
Receivables Management
Inventory Management
Payables Management
Collection rates show how w ell the company can collect cash. Increasing divergence from
100% indicate either trouble collecting receivables or aggressive and possibly unethical
collection practices.
Sales rates illustrate how w ell the company can sell its inventory. Increasing divergence from
100% can mean the company is struggling to sell its inventory or it is aggressively marking it
dow n at deep discounts.
Gross Margins
Increasing volatility and falling long-term trends show decline in the company's ability to control
direct operating costs.
overhead and other corporate expenses.
financial costs, non-operating items, and taxes.
Returns on Investment (77% w eight) Shareholder Returns (23% w eight)
1 2 3 4 5 N/A 1 1 2 3 4 5 N/A
1 2 3 4 5 N/A 2 1 2 3 4 5 N/A
1 2 3 4 5 N/A 2 1 2 3 4 5 N/A
1 2 3 4 5 N/A
The Operating Profits to Assets (OPA) ratio utilizes operating income before unusual items.
Large, stable OPA ratios are considered attractive.
OPA Ratio
Based on EBITDAReturns on Equity
Shareholder payouts matching or surpassing unlevered FCF are unsustainable, as it
crow ds out debt servicing and other uses of cash. This can lead to cash shortage or
unnecessary leverage.
Shareholder payouts matching or surpassing EBITDA are unsustainable, as it crow ds
out debt servicing and maintenance capex. This can lead to structural w eakness or
unnecessary leverage.
Based on uFCF
Based on NOPAT
GPA Ratio
The Gross Profits to Assets (GPA) ratio exhibits minimum influence from accounting estimates.
High, stable GPA ratios signify a robust and efficient business.
Shareholder payouts matching or surpassing NOPAT are unsustainable, as it crow ds
out both debt servicing and grow th capex. This can lead to stagnation or unnecessary
leverage.
Return on net operating assets (RNOA) isolates from ROE the returns generated by business
operations. High RNOAs also imply great quality and strong competitive advantages.
A high return on equity (ROE) makes a company more attractive to investors as it implies great
quality and strong competitive advantages.
Returns on Net Operating Assets

Exchange
Sector
Industry
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Energy
Market
Capitalization
US$ 49.45 Bil
US$ 90.08
US$ 115.71
Wall Street
Estimate
RISK ASSESSMENT
The risk levels of the Five Elements represent weighted averages determined by the quantitative analyses of multiple factors that describe subfactor groups. The absolute values, historic volatility,
and observed trends of each individual subfactor are evaluated and ranked according to heuristic standards. The weights applied to each individual subfactor varies across industries. The table
below summarizes individual subfactors and scores their risk levels from 1 through 5, with 5 representing the highest risk.
US$ 102.54
Overall Risk
Book Value
per share
US$ 30.11
Growth
Value per
share
Stagnation
Value per
share
US$ 128.49
Page 3 of 9
VALUATION ANALYSIS
ABSOLUTE VALUE KEY ASSUMPTIONS
Potential Upside (Downside) (%)
Avg Fwd Unlevered FCF Margin (%)
CAPEX (% of Sales)
D&A (% of Sales)
Effective Tax Rate (%)
Operating Profits (% of Sales)
Sales Growth (9Y compounded)
Inflation Rate (9Y UNITED STATES)
Discount Rate
Competitive Advantage Period 8 years
Next 9 yearsForward Estimated Period
28.45%
3.63%
47.05%
25.30%
36.69%
32.67%
3.58%
1.56%
6.70%
FUTURE PROSPECTS

INHERENT STABILITY

Management Candor (50% w eight) Economic Moat (50% w eight)
1 2 3 4 5 N/A 3 1 2 3 4 5 N/A
1 2 3 4 5 N/A 3 1 2 3 4 5 N/A
1 2 3 4 5 N/A 2 1 2 3 4 5 N/A
2 1 2 3 4 5 N/A
Reliability of Auditor Opinions Relative Creditworthiness
Frequent changes in auditors and/or opinions made regarding the company's financial reports
can be a red flag.
Quantitative models are used to evaluate the reliability, persistence, and quality of past earnings
by assessing accruals, cash flow s, operating efficiency, and other financial data.
A company w ith less credit and liquidity risk than its peers signify an opportunity to
grow w ith the use of leverage.
A company w ith higher profitability than its peers generally has better cost controls.
How ever, these can be offset by inefficient operations.
Accruals Usage
Quantitative Models
Relative Efficiency
Relative Cost Controls
A company w ith low er cash conversion cycles and higher turnover ratios than its
peers typically demonstrates greater operating efficiency. How ever, these can be
offset by w eak profitability.
High usage of accruals can increase the probability of earnings manipulation.
A company w ith higher returns on investment against its peers illustrates efficient
operations, effective cost controls, or both, along w ith other business advantages.
Relative Returns on Invested Capital
Divergent Expectations (55% w eight) Potential Surprises (45% w eight)
1 2 3 4 5 N/A 3 1 2 3 4 5 N/A
3 1 2 3 4 5 N/A
3 1 2 3 4 5 N/A
Average analyst projections are adjusted for age and analyst accuracy to determine
the potential for the company's returns on equity to exceed or fall short of
expectations embedded in expert opinions.
the potential for the company's returns on assets to exceed or fall short of
the potential for the company's cash flow s per share to exceed or fall short of
Market-implied expectations for EPS grow th over the next 10 years are compared against
accuracy-adjusted Wall Street estimates. A w ide variance reflects either overoptimism or
excessive pessimism.
Returns on Equity
Returns on Assets
Cash Flows per ShareWall Street versus the Market
$30.11 $128.49 $115.71 $102.54
$90.08
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
Book Stagnation Growth Wall Street

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Sector
Industry
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uFCF
(198.9%)
(201.3%)
(200.6%)
(201.3%)
(199.2%)
US$ 128.49
Energy
Market
Capitalization
US$ 49.45 Bil
US$ 90.08
US$ 115.71
Wall Street
Estimate
COMPANY FOLLOWERS
EXPECTATIONS ANALYSIS
US$ 102.54
Overall Risk
Book Value
per share
US$ 30.11
Growth
Value per
share
Stagnation
Value per
share
Sales
* The table above presents the expected 9-year compounded annual growth rates of sales or
unlevered free cash flows, as implied by either the market price or valuation estimates, when
available.
Page 4 of 9
IMPLIED GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS
Market Price
Low Analyst Estimate
High Analyst Estimate
Saibus's Growth Value
Mean Analyst Estimate
2.0%
4.1%
3.4%
4.1%
1.7%
Jun 2013 Sep 2013 Dec 2013 Mar 2014 Jun 2014 Sep 2014 Dec 2014 Mar 2015
# Analysts Following 35 36 38 38 37 36 37 38
# Funds Holding 1178 1232 1313 1359 1419 1450 1549 1609
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jun 2013 Sep 2013 Dec 2013 Mar 2014 Jun 2014 Sep 2014 Dec 2014 Mar 2015 Jun 2015
INTRINSIC VALUE ESTIMATES
Mean IV High IV Low IV Share Price 4 per. Mov. Avg. (Mean IV) 4 per. Mov. Avg. (Share Price)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Jun 2013 Sep 2013 Dec 2013 Mar 2014 Jun 2014 Sep 2014 Dec 2014 Mar 2015 Jun 2015
STREET RECOMMENDATIONS
Strong Buy Buy Hold Underperform Sell
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jun
2013
Sep
2013
Dec
2013
Mar
2014
Jun
2014
Sep
2014
Dec
2014
Mar
2015
Jun
2015
STRATEGY CLASSIFICATION
Market Maker
Index Funds
Alternative Strategies
Income Investors
Growth Investors
Value Investors

Exchange
Sector
Industry
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US$ 90.08
US$ 128.49
Energy
Price per share
Overall Risk
Book Value
per share
US$ 30.11
Stagnation
Value per
share
Growth
Value per
share
US$ 70.00
Shares Outstanding 548.93 Mil
Market
Capitalization
US$ 49.45 Bil
US$ 115.71
Wall Street
Estimate
US$ 102.54
Ideal Buy Price
PEER ANALYSIS
Page 5 of 9
Peer analysis is approached from the perspective of relative fundamental performance. The intent behind this point of view is to measure and quantitatively evaluate the strengths of the subject's
competitive advantages as well as the depth and width of its economic moat.
Peer Group
Stock
Symbol
Mkt Cap
(USD Bil)
Current
Price
Wall Street
Consensus
Mean
Analyst
Targets
Reuters
Value
Estimate
P/E P/B Div Yld (%) Beta
Current
Ratio
Debt
Ratio (%)
Reuters
Credit
Rating
GPM OPM NPM ROA ROE
Reuters
Earnings
Quality Rank
EOG Resources Inc EOG 49.45 $90.08 Buy $102.54 $28.33 12.0 3.0 0.70% 1.3 1.6 49% BBB 62% 36% 25% 14% 27% 58.0
CONOCOPHILLIPS COP 78.21 $63.43 Buy $75.04 $48.67 20.2 1.6 4.54% 1.0 1.3 55% #N/A 42% 16% 13% 6% 13% 42.0
Anadarko Petroleum Corp APC 42.47 $83.61 Buy $101.91 N/A N/A 2.6 1.29% 1.7 2.3 68% #N/A 87% 37% (8%) (3%) (8%) 78.0
Devon Energy Corp DVN 25.68 $62.46 Buy $76.27 $51.96 N/A 1.4 1.54% 1.4 1.1 57% #N/A 86% 29% 9% 4% 8% 33.0
Pioneer Natural Resources Co PXD 22.29 $149.30 Buy $182.81 $21.52 26.5 2.6 0.05% 1.3 1.5 43% #N/A 63% 26% 22% 7% 12% 41.0
2 0 10 2 0 11 2 0 12 2 0 13 2 0 14 2 0 10 2 0 11 2 0 12 2 0 13 2 0 14
†D eb t R at io C ash C o nversio n C ycle
EOG Resources Inc 52.68% 49.11% 51.40% 49.57% 49.05% EOG Resources Inc (44.70) (48.93) (30.90) (31.64) (44.53)
CONOCOPHILLIPS 56.14% 57.42% 59.04% 55.88% 55.46% CONOCOPHILLIPS (57.45) (50.09) (60.17) (53.43) (17.19)
Anadarko Petroleum Corp 59.88% 65.03% 60.77% 60.82% 68.03% Anadarko Petroleum Corp (163.19) (148.80) (87.86) (136.86) (151.89)
Devon Energy Corp 41.53% 47.88% 50.89% 52.19% 57.46% Devon Energy Corp (31.14) (47.35) (50.29) (39.76) (7.42)
Pioneer Natural Resources Co 57.43% 52.05% 56.47% 46.30% 42.51% Pioneer Natural Resources Co 19.02 (89.89) (120.32) (133.04) (121.71)
So lvency R at io ( EB IT D A ) T o t al A sset T unro ver
EOG Resources Inc 28.98% 45.73% 44.29% 52.72% 60.01% EOG Resources Inc 0.30 0.41 0.44 0.49 0.54
CONOCOPHILLIPS 29.34% 25.32% 31.12% 31.47% 25.63% CONOCOPHILLIPS 0.40 0.42 0.44 0.48 0.45
Anadarko Petroleum Corp 20.07% 24.17% 19.72% 24.79% 27.09% Anadarko Petroleum Corp 0.22 0.27 0.26 0.27 0.31
Devon Energy Corp 43.52% 34.89% 23.02% 24.57% 31.06% Devon Energy Corp 0.32 0.31 0.23 0.24 0.42
Pioneer Natural Resources Co 16.84% 21.74% 19.80% 33.57% 34.41% Pioneer Natural Resources Co 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.27 0.32
Gro ss M arg in N OA T urno ver
EOG Resources Inc 65.38% 63.41% 58.79% 60.00% 62.00% EOG Resources Inc 0.58 0.84 0.89 1.00 1.06
CONOCOPHILLIPS 49.84% 44.13% 46.71% 46.57% 41.77% CONOCOPHILLIPS 1.00 1.02 1.10 1.13 1.01
Anadarko Petroleum Corp 85.01% 86.51% 85.60% 85.50% 87.25% Anadarko Petroleum Corp 0.54 0.72 0.69 0.69 0.89
Devon Energy Corp 83.01% 81.66% 75.81% 75.54% 86.24% Devon Energy Corp 0.87 0.80 0.62 0.70 1.31
Pioneer Natural Resources Co 73.14% 74.09% 68.80% 67.48% 62.60% Pioneer Natural Resources Co 0.50 0.47 0.50 0.59 0.59
Op erat ing M arg in R et urn o n A sset s
EOG Resources Inc 23.14% 31.79% 26.57% 30.71% 35.57% EOG Resources Inc 4.00% 8.23% 5.98% 11.90% 13.56%
CONOCOPHILLIPS 28.64% 23.84% 24.86% 23.72% 15.69% CONOCOPHILLIPS 7.40% 8.08% 6.29% 7.84% 5.91%
Anadarko Petroleum Corp 22.58% 30.82% 17.43% 30.75% 36.92% Anadarko Petroleum Corp 1.61% (4.97%) 4.69% 1.74% (2.66%)
Devon Energy Corp 40.45% 40.38% 23.83% 26.14% 29.22% Devon Energy Corp 14.53% 12.71% (0.49%) (0.05%) 3.62%
Pioneer Natural Resources Co 24.57% 37.95% 29.34% 29.78% 26.29% Pioneer Natural Resources Co 6.97% 8.35% 1.98% (6.30%) 6.83%
N et M arg in R et urn o n Eq uit y
Anadarko Petroleum Corp 7.47% (18.39%) 18.23% 6.45% (8.46%) Anadarko Petroleum Corp 4.04% (13.24%) 12.62% 4.43% (7.52%)
Devon Energy Corp 45.77% 41.10% (2.17%) (0.19%) 8.64% Devon Energy Corp 26.13% 23.13% (0.96%) (0.10%) 8.05%
Pioneer Natural Resources Co 36.39% 41.52% 9.24% (23.28%) 21.52% Pioneer Natural Resources Co 16.87% 18.36% 4.35% (13.00%) 12.25%
N OPA T M arg in R et urn o n N et Op erat ing A sset s
Anadarko Petroleum Corp 11.30% 23.12% 11.95% 13.74% (1,068.61%) Anadarko Petroleum Corp 6.11% 16.65% 8.28% 9.43% (949.32%)
Devon Energy Corp 26.45% 20.08% 13.91% (3.51%) 12.17% Devon Energy Corp 23.05% 16.08% 8.63% (2.45%) 15.95%
Pioneer Natural Resources Co 16.09% 25.96% 19.19% 18.73% 17.14% Pioneer Natural Resources Co 8.11% 12.24% 9.54% 10.97% 10.12%

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Industry
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# of Down Days 0.08% 1.26
Avg Down % 4.47% 2.71
# of Up Days 20.48% 1.77%
Avg Up % (19.32%) 2.51%
# of Down Days 0.05% N/A
Avg Down % 2.69% N/A
# of Up Days 8.22% 1.29%
Avg Up % 9.00% 1.78%
Energy
Price per share
US$ 90.08
Overall Risk
Book Value
per share
US$ 30.11
Growth
Value per
share
Stagnation
Value per
share
US$ 128.49
Market
Capitalization
US$ 49.45 Bil
US$ 115.71
Wall Street
Estimate
US$ 102.54
Page 6 of 9
EOG Resources Inc
1.77%
1,555
(1.78%)
1,402
0.87 // 4.13
45.6 // 44.02
10.73 — 117.98
81.07 — 118.89 // 4.68 mil
10Y Daily Min - Max
10Y Daily Mean / Median1,571 466.16 // 459.39
10Y Daily Semideviation (Returns)
10Y Daily Semideviation (Returns)Avg Yearly Return
10Y Daily Skew / Kurtosis
TECHNICALS
Charting
52-wk Low - High // Avg Daily Vol5Y Monthly BetaAvg Daily Return
5Y Monthly Beta
10Y Daily Mean / Median
10Y Daily Min - Max
52-wk Low - High // Avg Daily Vol
10Y Daily Std Deviation (Returns)
Historic Price Movements
52-wk Cmpd Return
Avg Yearly Return
1.17% 52-wk Cmpd Return 10Y Daily Std Deviation (Returns) 10Y Daily Skew / Kurtosis -0.15 // 2.28
Avg Daily Return
(1.20%) Avg Quarterly Return 5Y Monthly Down Beta 223.74 — 737.09
5Y Monthly Down Beta
1,394 N/A
Avg Quarterly Return
S&P 500 Energy
Monthly QEOG 6/30/2005 - 12/31/2015 (NYC)
Cndl, QEOG, Trade Price
6/30/2015, 89.02000, 91.48000, 86.81800, 89.08000, -1.02000, (-1.13%)
3MA, QEOG, Trade Price(Last), 3, 6, 12, Exponential
6/30/2015, 90.45405, 91.62890, 92.54351
Price
USD
Auto
40
60
80
89.08000
90.45405
91.62890
92.54351
Vol, QEOG, Trade Price
6/30/2015, 39.565M Volume
Auto
100M
39.565M
RSI, QEOG, Trade Price(Last), 3, Wilder Smoothing
6/30/2015, 37.581 Value
USD
Auto
30
60
37.581
Psych, QEOG, Trade Price(Last), 3
6/30/2015, 66.66667 Value
USD
Auto
30
60
66.66667
TSI, QEOG, Trade Price(Last), 3
6/30/2015, -0.84877 Value
USD
Auto
-0.5
0
-0.84877
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Sector
Industry
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The Five-Four Equity Report relies on a proprietary process called the "5/4" (Five-Four). This process uses the Five Elements framework to assess fundamental business risks and considers four valuation
approaches to evaluate intrinsic value against these risks, and to compare market sentiments against analyst opinions. The valuation models use the weighted average cost of capital ("WACC") as the discount
rate, with the cost of equity calculated by the Capital Asset Pricing Model ("CAPM"). A risk multiplier is applied to both the debt and equity components of the WACC in order to link the discovery process of the
Five Elements framework to the valuation models. As these risk multipliers do not incorporate stock price volatility, the beta coefficient in the CAPM has been removed to isolate fundamental risk factors from
market noise.
Energy
Price per share
Book Value
per share
US$ 30.11
Growth
Value per
share
Stagnation
Value per
share
US$ 128.49
Market
Capitalization
US$ 49.45 Bil
US$ 90.08
US$ 115.71
Wall Street
Estimate
Page 7 of 9
Fundamental business risk have been disassembled intoFive Elements: Creditworthiness, Efficiency, Profitability, Inherent Stability, and Future Prospects. The absolute values, historical volatilities, and
prevailing trends of 46 risk factors are evaluated together to approximate the fundamental risks of any company. Such analyses are highly thorough. While valuations change frequently within the time frame of a
few quarters or shorter, this report was designed with the understanding that fundamental risks are long term by nature and typically make gradual shifts over multiple years.
Creditworthiness encompasses balance sheet strength and the capacity to service financial and operating obligations. The evaluation process typically contrasts company profitability and asset liquidity against
liabilities and other required obligations and also analyzes the default probabilities indicated by the Altman Z-Score and the StarMine models owned by Thomson Reuters.
Efficiency refers to the management of working capital and the ability to utilize assets in generating sales. The evaluation process looks at the consistency and direction of a company's asset turnover ratios and
cash conversion cycles. It also gauges the rates of receivables collection, inventory sales, and payment of trade payables.
Profitability covers both the company's ability to control costs and to maximize returns on investment. The evaluation process considers the consistency and direction of gross, operating, and net profitability
ratios, whose weights will vary depending on the underlying industry and business model. It also assays various measures of returns on investment to ascertain management's long-term performance and the
magnitude of the financial impact by a company's economic moat.
Inherent Stability is attributed to management candor and the company's economic moat. Management candor refers to the trustworthiness of corporate disclosures and publicly-available financial reports, while
the economic moat refers to a set of qualitative characteristics that protect the company from competition and other economic forces. The evaluation process checks for trustworthiness in cash-accrual
discrepancies and earnings quality scores. It also bases the appraisal of the economic moat on its long-term relative fundamental performance.
Future Prospects are determined by numerous variables, both quantitative and qualitative. The evaluation process simplifies this analysis by inspecting the differences between the EPS growth projected by
analysts and EPS growth implied by market prices, as well as predicted surprises in long-term fundamental performance.
The 5/4 Process
How the Five Elements are Appraised
US$ 102.54
Overall Risk
Growth Value
Stagnation
Value
Book Value
Expectations
Sentiment
• Implied Expectations
• Analyst Consensus
• Popularity
• Reproduction
Cost
• Liquidation Value
• Steady State
Scenario
• Free Cash Flows
• Growth Scenario
• Free Cash Flows
• Competitive
Advantage Period
RISK
ANALYSIS
Inherent
Stability
• Trustworthiness
• Economic Moat
• Business Model
Future Prospects
• Growth potential
• Projects already
underway
• Industry and
company-specific
Creditworthiness
• Balance sheet strength
• Capacity to service
financial and operating
obligations
Efficiency
• ESG metrics
• Operating
efficiency
• Cost controls
Profitability
• Returns on
invested capital
• Shareholder Yield

Exchange
Sector
Industry
▼
▲
Growth
Value per
share
Stagnation
Value per
share
US$ 128.49
Energy
Market
Capitalization
US$ 49.45 Bil
US$ 90.08
US$ 115.71
Wall Street
Estimate
Page 8 of 9
Glossary and Disclaimers
US$ 102.54
Overall Risk
Book Value
per share
US$ 30.11
Risk Assessment: The Five Elements and the company's composite business risk itself
are assessed according to a balanced scorecard, which evaluates the absolute values,
historic volatilities, and observed trends of 46 risk subfactors. Analyst judgment in the
risk assessment is kept to a minimum.
Tactical Approach: The Five-Four Equity Reports do not adhere to the typical “Strong
Buy, Buy, Hold, Sell, and Strong Sell” rating system. This research report is intended to
provide data relevant for decision-making based on a company's risk-return profile.
Ideal Buy and Sell Prices: These prices are ideal entry and exit points for an investor
given the company's risk-return profile and its recent movements in the financial
markets. Ideal buy and sell prices reflect analyst judgment.
Four valuation approaches: Book Value, Stagnation Value, Growth Value, and Wall
Street Estimate reflect four methods to assessing the intrinsic values of a stock. The
differences between these methods can be interpreted for company-specific information
with respect to the degree of optimism or pessimism with respect to analyst opinions and
market sentiments, the strength of the underlying business's competitive advantages,
and the potential upsides/downsides available to the investor.
Book Value: The book value of a company corresponds to its net asset values, as it
equals total assets less total liabilities. Intangible assets and goodwill are not deducted
as the going-concern principle is assumed, but a reduction equivalent to the discount
rate has been applied to account for overall risk. This value estimates the minimum cost
required to emulate the underlying business and represents the company’s worth without
the influence of management or economics.
Stagnation Value: The stagnation value of a company reflects the equity value under a
"steady state" scenario, where sales, expenses, and capital expenditures are projected
at a sustainable level that maintains current output and competitiveness. Stagnation
value is computed with a single-stage DCF model based on net operating profits after
taxes and other value adjustments such as excess cash, dilution, and outstanding debt,
among others.
Growth Value: A two-stage DCF model that measures the future value of a company
using projected free cash flows. Of the three models used, it is the most prone to
forecast error. Because the future is unknowable, risk of error is mitigated by the use of
conservative assumptions as well as a terminal growth rate set to long-term inflation.
Expectations Analysis: The same DCF model used to compute the Growth Value is
reverse-engineered to determine the growth rates or profitability margins that equate the
net present value to the current market price. These figures indicate the expectations of
the market consensus.
Charting / Momentum: The "5/4" process does not consider technical charts and price
momentum indicators in its risk assessment as these do not reflect fundamental
characteristics of the underlying business in the long run. However, technical and other
data derived from price and volume do have value in guiding the execution of investment
decisions. Thus, these have been provided in the Five-Four Equity Reports.
Relative Strength Index: A price-based oscillator that ranges between 0 and 100, used to
determine overbought and oversold conditions, identify failure swings, and indicate bullish and
bearish divergence by comparing the movement of the RSI and the underlying security.
Overbought (oversold) conditions are considered probable when RSI is above 70 (below 30) or
above 80 (below 20), but such signals are most reliable in sideward markets. In trending markets,
signals on par with the trend are more reliable. If prices are making higher highs but the RSI is
making lower highs, the uptrend is weakening. If RSI is making higher lows while prices are
making lower lows, the downtrend is weakening.
Trend Strength Index: The Trend Strength Index is a price-based oscillator that provides an
intermediate-term absolute measure of the tendency to trend or mean-revert. It is primarily used
to determine whether a trend is reversing, continuing, or stopping, as it is based on the premise
that securities with a high degree of momentum relative to volatility are less likely to mean-revert
than those with a low degree. TSI values fall within the -1 to 1 range. Positive values indicate
uptrends. Negative values indicate downtrends. If values sustains an overall approach to zero
after a reversal, the trend is continuing. If it breaks downward through zero during an uptrend (or
upward during a downtrend), the trend has stopped.
Psychology Index: The Psychology Index depicts the percentage of times in the period when
the value was greater than its previous value. If the Psychology value is below 25%, a rebound is
likely. When above 75%, a reactionary fall is likely.
Third parties: The "5/4" process is a proprietary method developed by Obsido Analytics. This
process uses Thomson Reuters for third-party data, which includes standardized financial
information, the StarMine implied credit rating, the StarMine Earnings Quality Ranking, and
projections calculated using the StarMine SmartEstimates model.
† Definitions of certain key ratios and other fundamental items used in the report:
Debt Ratio: Total Liabilities ÷ Total Assets
Solvency Ratio: Earnings ÷ Total Liabilities
Current Ratio: (Current Assets - Prepaid Expenses - Restricted Cash) ÷ (Current Liabilities -
Deferred Revenues)
CAPEX: Capital Expenditures
R&D: Research and Development
D&A: Depreciation and Amortization
Required Obligations: Debt Payments + Interest Expense + CAPEX + R&D + Rent Expense
Earnings Coverage: Earnings ÷ Required Obligations
Operating Income: Sales less Cost of Sales, SG&A, R&D, D&A, and other operating expenses
but excluding unusual and/or extraordinary items.
EBIT: Sales less Cost of Sales, SG&A, R&D, D&A, and all other non-interest income and
expenses, including unusual and/or extraordinary items.
Operating Margins: Operating Income as defined above ÷ Total Sales
GPA Ratio: Gross Profits to Assets Ratio
OPA Ratio: Operating Profits to Assets Ratio
Shareholder Yield: (Dividends + Buybacks) ÷ Average Market Capitalization
Payout Rate: (Dividends + Buybacks) ÷ Earnings
EBITDA: Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization
EBIT: Earnings before Interest and Taxes
Net Operating Profits after Taxes: Operating Income × (1 - Tax Rate)
Net Operating Assets: Operating Assets - Operating Liabilities
FCFF: Free Cash Flows to the Firm
uFCF: Unlevered Free Cash Flows (also known as Free Cash Flows to the Firm)
NOPAT + D&A - CAPEX: Alternative computation method for uFCF
Net Fixed Assets: Net PPE + Net Intangibles - Goodwill
OCFBIT: Net operating cash flows before interest and taxes paid

Exchange
Sector
Industry
▼
▲
Growth
Value per
share
Stagnation
Value per
share
US$ 128.49
Energy
Market
Capitalization
US$ 49.45 Bil
US$ 90.08
US$ 115.71
Wall Street
Estimate
Page 9 of 9
The 5/4 Process
As additional disclosure, Saibus Research has no positions in EOG and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
US$ 102.54
Overall Risk
Book Value
per share
US$ 30.11
Disclaimers
The report and the opinions contained herein were prepared by Saibus Research using a combination of historical and forward-looking information that is publicly available and considered
reliable. Accuracy is not guaranteed. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Additional information, such as corporate actions, industry and economic factors, and
other events and circumstances that may affect a stock’s price may not be reflected in the risk ratings, valuations, and ideal buy/sell prices presented. All investments involve risk, including
loss of principal. Investment characteristics as identified may change for any reason at any time. Risk ratings, valuations, and ideal buy/sell prices do not consider individual strategies, risk
tolerance, investment objectives, behavioral biases, and other constraints. While companies with low overall risk, excessively pessimistic market-implied expectations, and high discounts
relative to intrinsic value are expected to result in very high excess returns over the long run, there is no guarantee that this will occur. Saibus Research is not responsible for the results of
actions taken based on the information presented in this report. The authors and the company hereby disclaim any duty to provide any updates or changes to the information contained here
including, without limitation, the manner or type of any investments and any opinions with respect to risk ratings, valuations, and ideal buy/sell prices.
This report was made for information and recordkeeping purposes only and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. Any such offer or solicitation may only be made by
means of delivery of an approved confidential private offering memorandum. All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analysts’ personal views
regarding any and all of the subject securities. No part of the analysts’ compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed
herein. The research analysts who prepared this report may not be registered with FINRA under Series 86 / 87, and may not be subject to FINRA rule 2711 restrictions with respect to:
communicating with the subject company, public appearances, and trading securities held in the research analysts’ accounts. The analysts responsible for the production of this report certifies
that the views expressed herein reflect their accurate personal and technical judgment at the moment of publication.
Under no circumstances must this document be considered an offer to buy, sell, subscribe for, or trade securities or other investments.

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