SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 20
LowYields. HIGH STRESS.
Winter 2013
Picton Mahoney Asset Management -
Canada’s trusted hedge fund source
At Picton Mahoney Asset Management
(PMAM) we manage over $7.0 billion in
assets for investors through three lines of
investment solutions
• Authentic hedge fund strategies
• Sub-advisory services
• Institutional long-only mandates
Our Founding Principles:
• Authenticity
• Transparency
• Capacity
2
Investors need to ask themselves some
“what if” questions regarding their portfolio
• What if stock markets continue to rally?
• What if interest rates rise?
• What if stock/sector leadership change continues?
If you don’t like the answers you are getting to these questions then it is time
to reconsider your positioning and/or the investment tools you are using
to build your portfolio
3
Investment OutlookInvestment Outlook
4
Low Yields. HIGH STRESS.
The price of perfection. What happens when the era of
low, low rates comes to an end!?
Market Summary – top 3 calls for 2013
• Inflection point for interest rates
• Rotation trade out of bonds into stocks
• Return of the credit pickers market
5
Business case for hedged income, the
three risks
6
Rate Risk:
• Dollar value loss of a 1% increase in rates is at the highest in history
Price Risk:
• Investment grade priced to perfection with longest duration, lowest yield
and highest price in history
Credit Risk:
• Default rates are low today at just over 2%, but through cycle they’ve
averaged almost 5%
Government bonds: no gain, all pain
• “This time is different”—equities 1999/2000, oil 2008, “safe” bonds now?
7Source: Picton Mahoney Asset Management, CIBC Research, Treasury Direct, Bureau of Economic Analysis
1994, The Great Bond Massacre
• Today, while we don’t expect a dramatic sell off in Government bonds,
they are 30% more sensitive to a rise in rates than 1994
8
(30.0%)
(25.0%)
(20.0%)
(15.0%)
(10.0%)
(5.0%)
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
5.00%
5.50%
6.00%
6.50%
7.00%
7.50%
8.00%
8.50%
9.00%Jan-94
Feb-94
Mar-94
Apr-94
May-94
Jun-94
Jul-94
Aug-94
Sep-94
Oct-94
Nov-94
Dec-94
Indicative%Losson10Yr
%Yield
10Yr Long BondYield Indicative % Loss on 10Yr
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Sensitivity analysis, visualize the pain
9
Source: Bloomberg, Picton Mahoney Asset Management
(30.0%)
(25.0%)
(20.0%)
(15.0%)
(10.0%)
(5.0%)
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 1.7% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5%
PercentageChangeinPrice
Yield %
Change in Market Value at VariousYields
Current US 10Year Note—T 1 5∕8 % of 2022
1% Increase inYield
Increase to 200 Year Avg yield
$ Loss: ($25.00)
$ Loss: ($9.00)
Speaking of sensitivities, we’ve done well
when Government’s have sold off
• Outperformed 97% of the time! PM Income Opportunities Fund Class A
since inception (December 2009)
10
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global
Research, Picton Mahoney Asset
Management Estimates
(2.0%)
(1.0%)
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152535455565758596061626364656667
Overperformance/(Underperformance)%
Weeks When the 10-Year Experienced Negative Performance
Our Outperformance In WeeksWhen the 10Year US Gov't Bond Was Negative
2010 2011 2012
Can’t beat the relative value in High
Yield
• High Yield (HY) affords the best risk reward within fixed income - but it
will be a credit-pickers market
• High-end of the HY market (BB’s &B’s) remains our highest conviction outright
call with:
• Still-attractive valuations
• Good carry
• Low default risk
• See excellent short side opportunity in pockets of high yield (especially ETF
held bonds)
• Prefer long/short to managed and managed to passive—but manage your
manager
11
High Yield remains the relative winner
• High yield spreads remain in-line with historical averages and are
attractive given low default expectations
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research 12
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
DefaultRate(%)
Spread(Bps)
Global HY Spread to Worst vs Global Default Rate
Global HY Spread to Worst
Long Term Average HY Spread
Global Default Rate
Bringing it to a trade –
summary recommendations
Strategy Level Picks:
• Higher quality High Yield – B to BB
• Investment Grade financials
• Levered loans
• Credit driven equity ideas
Strategy Level Pans:
• Government, Investment Grade and other rate sensitive mandates
• Passive ETF strategies
• ETF held high yield bonds
• CCC rated corporate bonds
13
Pull it all together, maximizing return and
minimizing risk
• Fund is right for today’s times – stability and returns
• Objectives & Targets:
• Maximize total return = 6 - 8% net of fees
• Generate a sustainable distribution = 5% paid monthly
• Preserving capital = Less volatile than high yield and stocks
14
PMAM’s Income Investment Process
• Powerful combination of credit and equity analytics
15
Deep portfolio management team
16
TradingCredit Research
David Picton
President
James Lawson
Chief Investment
Officer
Phil Mesman
Lead Portfolio Manager
Ashley Kay
Head Trader/Strategist
Sam Goddard
Trader
Sam Acton
Credit Analyst
Kyle Marta
Credit Analyst
Phil Porat
Credit Analyst
Other PMAM Team Members
2 Traders
3 Portfolio Managers
5 Quantitative Analysts
10 Fundamental Analysts
Our basic hedge fund strategy
• Defensive income necessitates a value focus
• Long:
• Securities showing positive fundamental change, lower valuations and
higher quality scores
• Short:
• Securities showing negative fundamental change, higher valuation and
lower quality scores
• Portfolio construction / risk control used to design portfolios that
trade-off exposure to desired traits with specified volatility
targets
17
Strategy Examples
Longs:
• Flint Energy (URS) 7.5% of 2019
• Viterra Inc. (GLENLN) 6.406% of 2021
• Sherritt International Corp. (SCN) 7.5% of 2015
• Financials
Shorts:
• Meg Energy Corporation (MEGCN) 6 3/8s of 2023
• First Data Corporation (FDC) 6.75% of 2020
• Fortescue Metals Group (FMGAU) 7.0% of 2015
• Aimia (Aeroplan) Inc. (AIMCN) 5.6% of 2019
18
PMAM Income Opportunities Fund
19
The inception date of the Class A Units of the fund is December 31, 2009. Performance and Performance Analysis data is presented since inception for Class A Units of the Fund. Performance data is
compared a blended benchmark of 50% Merrill Lynch CDN HY Index & 50% Merrill Lynch US Master II (A) Index (CAD). The composition of the Funds’ portfolio will significantly differ from the benchmark
due to the investment strategy employed. Please see “Investment Strategies” in the Confidential Offering Memorandum for more details. The Merrill Lynch Canadian Broad Market Index is provided for
information purposes only. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with fund investments. This is for information only and is not an offer or solicitation to sell
units of the fund. Complete information relating to the funds, including risk factors, is contained in the Confidential Offering Memorandum. This fund is not guaranteed, its values change frequently and past
performance may not be repeated. Please see “Risk Factors” in the Confidential Offering Memorandum for more details.
Targets:
• 6-8% annual return;
net of fees
• Generate a
sustainable
distribution = 5%
per year
• Half the volatility of
the Canadian High
Yield Index
Firm level advantages
• Weekly pricing & Liquidity
• Sold by Offering Memorandum
• A Class 2/20 model & F Class 1/20 model
• 5% initial distribution & 5% hurdle rate
• High-water mark calculated weekly
• We are partnered with top notch service providers:
• Prime Brokers – Goldman Sachs, Scotia Capital Inc.,
• Canadian Legal Counsel – McMillan LLP
• Auditor – PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP
• Administrator – Citigroup Global Transaction Services
20

More Related Content

What's hot

December 13 quarterly: Is this too good to be true?
December 13 quarterly: Is this too good to be true?December 13 quarterly: Is this too good to be true?
December 13 quarterly: Is this too good to be true?Mark_Krygier
 
The Case for Opportunistic Investing
The Case for Opportunistic InvestingThe Case for Opportunistic Investing
The Case for Opportunistic InvestingMercer - Investments
 
Segmenting the Investor Community to Boost Fundraising
Segmenting the Investor Community to Boost FundraisingSegmenting the Investor Community to Boost Fundraising
Segmenting the Investor Community to Boost FundraisingNavatar
 
Jp morgan investment funds income opportunity fund
Jp morgan investment funds   income opportunity fundJp morgan investment funds   income opportunity fund
Jp morgan investment funds income opportunity fundBobby Bob
 
Structured Investing In An Unstructured World
Structured Investing In An Unstructured WorldStructured Investing In An Unstructured World
Structured Investing In An Unstructured WorldRobert Davis
 
RWC Investment Introduction Presentation
RWC Investment Introduction PresentationRWC Investment Introduction Presentation
RWC Investment Introduction PresentationSprague Kolp
 
Investing for the 21st Century
Investing for the 21st CenturyInvesting for the 21st Century
Investing for the 21st CenturyZoe Sexton MBA
 
Effectiveness of DC Plan Investment Structure
Effectiveness of DC Plan Investment StructureEffectiveness of DC Plan Investment Structure
Effectiveness of DC Plan Investment StructureMercer - Investments
 
Modern Investing: Is it Different this Time?
Modern Investing: Is it Different this Time?Modern Investing: Is it Different this Time?
Modern Investing: Is it Different this Time?osubucs
 
Deep Value and the Aquirer's Multiple by Tobias Carlisle for QuantCon 2016
Deep Value and the Aquirer's Multiple by Tobias Carlisle for QuantCon 2016Deep Value and the Aquirer's Multiple by Tobias Carlisle for QuantCon 2016
Deep Value and the Aquirer's Multiple by Tobias Carlisle for QuantCon 2016Quantopian
 
Bec doms a ppt on overview of financial management07
Bec doms a ppt on overview of financial management07Bec doms a ppt on overview of financial management07
Bec doms a ppt on overview of financial management07Babasab Patil
 

What's hot (20)

December 13 quarterly: Is this too good to be true?
December 13 quarterly: Is this too good to be true?December 13 quarterly: Is this too good to be true?
December 13 quarterly: Is this too good to be true?
 
Wealth Destruction
Wealth DestructionWealth Destruction
Wealth Destruction
 
The Power of Economic Science
The Power of Economic ScienceThe Power of Economic Science
The Power of Economic Science
 
The Case for Opportunistic Investing
The Case for Opportunistic InvestingThe Case for Opportunistic Investing
The Case for Opportunistic Investing
 
Luck Versus Skill in Hedge Funds
Luck Versus Skill in Hedge FundsLuck Versus Skill in Hedge Funds
Luck Versus Skill in Hedge Funds
 
Segmenting the Investor Community to Boost Fundraising
Segmenting the Investor Community to Boost FundraisingSegmenting the Investor Community to Boost Fundraising
Segmenting the Investor Community to Boost Fundraising
 
Wealth Engineering Power Point
Wealth Engineering Power PointWealth Engineering Power Point
Wealth Engineering Power Point
 
Ch01
Ch01Ch01
Ch01
 
Jp morgan investment funds income opportunity fund
Jp morgan investment funds   income opportunity fundJp morgan investment funds   income opportunity fund
Jp morgan investment funds income opportunity fund
 
Dimensional otf rate expectations
Dimensional otf rate expectationsDimensional otf rate expectations
Dimensional otf rate expectations
 
Structured Investing In An Unstructured World
Structured Investing In An Unstructured WorldStructured Investing In An Unstructured World
Structured Investing In An Unstructured World
 
Internationl investment
Internationl investmentInternationl investment
Internationl investment
 
RWC Investment Introduction Presentation
RWC Investment Introduction PresentationRWC Investment Introduction Presentation
RWC Investment Introduction Presentation
 
Investing for the 21st Century
Investing for the 21st CenturyInvesting for the 21st Century
Investing for the 21st Century
 
Effectiveness of DC Plan Investment Structure
Effectiveness of DC Plan Investment StructureEffectiveness of DC Plan Investment Structure
Effectiveness of DC Plan Investment Structure
 
Modern Investing: Is it Different this Time?
Modern Investing: Is it Different this Time?Modern Investing: Is it Different this Time?
Modern Investing: Is it Different this Time?
 
5 smart-investing-strategies
5 smart-investing-strategies 5 smart-investing-strategies
5 smart-investing-strategies
 
Deep Value and the Aquirer's Multiple by Tobias Carlisle for QuantCon 2016
Deep Value and the Aquirer's Multiple by Tobias Carlisle for QuantCon 2016Deep Value and the Aquirer's Multiple by Tobias Carlisle for QuantCon 2016
Deep Value and the Aquirer's Multiple by Tobias Carlisle for QuantCon 2016
 
Bec doms a ppt on overview of financial management07
Bec doms a ppt on overview of financial management07Bec doms a ppt on overview of financial management07
Bec doms a ppt on overview of financial management07
 
Ml inv rule_of100x
Ml inv rule_of100xMl inv rule_of100x
Ml inv rule_of100x
 

Similar to Maximizing Returns While Minimizing Risk

The Capabilities of Foley and Foley Wealth Strategies
The Capabilities of Foley and Foley Wealth StrategiesThe Capabilities of Foley and Foley Wealth Strategies
The Capabilities of Foley and Foley Wealth Strategieslukefields1
 
Market Volatility - Fight or Flight
Market Volatility - Fight or FlightMarket Volatility - Fight or Flight
Market Volatility - Fight or FlightIan Po
 
Risk Ratings - Low Volatility Presentation Mello 2018
Risk Ratings - Low Volatility Presentation Mello 2018Risk Ratings - Low Volatility Presentation Mello 2018
Risk Ratings - Low Volatility Presentation Mello 2018Stockopedia
 
MainStay International Equity Fund
MainStay International Equity Fund MainStay International Equity Fund
MainStay International Equity Fund Albert Scace
 
Genworth MI Canada Investor Presentation September 2014
Genworth MI Canada Investor Presentation September 2014Genworth MI Canada Investor Presentation September 2014
Genworth MI Canada Investor Presentation September 2014genworth_financial
 
Multi Asset Endowment Investment Strategy
Multi Asset Endowment Investment StrategyMulti Asset Endowment Investment Strategy
Multi Asset Endowment Investment StrategyTaposh Roy
 
Bentham Global Credit update
Bentham Global Credit updateBentham Global Credit update
Bentham Global Credit updateMichael Kennedy
 
212013 14398 f013_credit rating
212013 14398 f013_credit rating212013 14398 f013_credit rating
212013 14398 f013_credit ratingSumit Sharma
 
GIC Investment Ideas: Alternatives
GIC Investment Ideas: AlternativesGIC Investment Ideas: Alternatives
GIC Investment Ideas: AlternativesMarqus J Freeman
 
Team Medallion, Capitalizer'21, Final Round
Team Medallion, Capitalizer'21, Final RoundTeam Medallion, Capitalizer'21, Final Round
Team Medallion, Capitalizer'21, Final RoundAfnan Faruk
 
Tag Young Professionals - Merrill Lynch Presentation
Tag Young Professionals - Merrill Lynch PresentationTag Young Professionals - Merrill Lynch Presentation
Tag Young Professionals - Merrill Lynch PresentationMelanie Brandt
 
Eric client investment deck
Eric client investment deckEric client investment deck
Eric client investment deckennovateresearch
 
Presentación FE MFS
Presentación FE MFSPresentación FE MFS
Presentación FE MFSRankia
 
Financial Advisory Proposal PowerPoint Presentation Slides
Financial Advisory Proposal PowerPoint Presentation SlidesFinancial Advisory Proposal PowerPoint Presentation Slides
Financial Advisory Proposal PowerPoint Presentation SlidesSlideTeam
 
RFP-Financial Market Analysis Course.pdf
RFP-Financial Market Analysis Course.pdfRFP-Financial Market Analysis Course.pdf
RFP-Financial Market Analysis Course.pdfJorielDelaCruz
 
Wealth Management Advisory Services Proposal PowerPoint Presentation Slides
Wealth Management Advisory Services Proposal PowerPoint Presentation SlidesWealth Management Advisory Services Proposal PowerPoint Presentation Slides
Wealth Management Advisory Services Proposal PowerPoint Presentation SlidesSlideTeam
 
Portfolio Management Services - What Can We Do For You?
Portfolio Management Services - What Can We Do For You?Portfolio Management Services - What Can We Do For You?
Portfolio Management Services - What Can We Do For You?Mark_Krygier
 

Similar to Maximizing Returns While Minimizing Risk (20)

The Capabilities of Foley and Foley Wealth Strategies
The Capabilities of Foley and Foley Wealth StrategiesThe Capabilities of Foley and Foley Wealth Strategies
The Capabilities of Foley and Foley Wealth Strategies
 
Market Volatility - Fight or Flight
Market Volatility - Fight or FlightMarket Volatility - Fight or Flight
Market Volatility - Fight or Flight
 
Risk Ratings - Low Volatility Presentation Mello 2018
Risk Ratings - Low Volatility Presentation Mello 2018Risk Ratings - Low Volatility Presentation Mello 2018
Risk Ratings - Low Volatility Presentation Mello 2018
 
MainStay International Equity Fund
MainStay International Equity Fund MainStay International Equity Fund
MainStay International Equity Fund
 
Genworth MI Canada Investor Presentation September 2014
Genworth MI Canada Investor Presentation September 2014Genworth MI Canada Investor Presentation September 2014
Genworth MI Canada Investor Presentation September 2014
 
Multi Asset Endowment Investment Strategy
Multi Asset Endowment Investment StrategyMulti Asset Endowment Investment Strategy
Multi Asset Endowment Investment Strategy
 
Bentham Global Credit update
Bentham Global Credit updateBentham Global Credit update
Bentham Global Credit update
 
212013 14398 f013_credit rating
212013 14398 f013_credit rating212013 14398 f013_credit rating
212013 14398 f013_credit rating
 
GIC Investment Ideas: Alternatives
GIC Investment Ideas: AlternativesGIC Investment Ideas: Alternatives
GIC Investment Ideas: Alternatives
 
Team Medallion, Capitalizer'21, Final Round
Team Medallion, Capitalizer'21, Final RoundTeam Medallion, Capitalizer'21, Final Round
Team Medallion, Capitalizer'21, Final Round
 
Tag Young Professionals - Merrill Lynch Presentation
Tag Young Professionals - Merrill Lynch PresentationTag Young Professionals - Merrill Lynch Presentation
Tag Young Professionals - Merrill Lynch Presentation
 
Eric client investment deck
Eric client investment deckEric client investment deck
Eric client investment deck
 
Presentación FE MFS
Presentación FE MFSPresentación FE MFS
Presentación FE MFS
 
NAMIC Management Conference - June 2012
NAMIC Management Conference -  June 2012NAMIC Management Conference -  June 2012
NAMIC Management Conference - June 2012
 
Financial Advisory Proposal PowerPoint Presentation Slides
Financial Advisory Proposal PowerPoint Presentation SlidesFinancial Advisory Proposal PowerPoint Presentation Slides
Financial Advisory Proposal PowerPoint Presentation Slides
 
RFP-Financial Market Analysis Course.pdf
RFP-Financial Market Analysis Course.pdfRFP-Financial Market Analysis Course.pdf
RFP-Financial Market Analysis Course.pdf
 
Syntel Risk Support Overview
Syntel Risk Support OverviewSyntel Risk Support Overview
Syntel Risk Support Overview
 
Wealth Management Advisory Services Proposal PowerPoint Presentation Slides
Wealth Management Advisory Services Proposal PowerPoint Presentation SlidesWealth Management Advisory Services Proposal PowerPoint Presentation Slides
Wealth Management Advisory Services Proposal PowerPoint Presentation Slides
 
Portfolio Management Services - What Can We Do For You?
Portfolio Management Services - What Can We Do For You?Portfolio Management Services - What Can We Do For You?
Portfolio Management Services - What Can We Do For You?
 
Pegasus FINAL
Pegasus FINALPegasus FINAL
Pegasus FINAL
 

Recently uploaded

VVIP Pune Call Girls Katraj (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Complete Sa...
VVIP Pune Call Girls Katraj (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Complete Sa...VVIP Pune Call Girls Katraj (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Complete Sa...
VVIP Pune Call Girls Katraj (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Complete Sa...Call Girls in Nagpur High Profile
 
02_Fabio Colombo_Accenture_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx
02_Fabio Colombo_Accenture_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx02_Fabio Colombo_Accenture_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx
02_Fabio Colombo_Accenture_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptxFinTech Belgium
 
Stock Market Brief Deck for 4/24/24 .pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for 4/24/24 .pdfStock Market Brief Deck for 4/24/24 .pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for 4/24/24 .pdfMichael Silva
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 17.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 17.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 17.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 17.pdfGale Pooley
 
VIP Call Girls LB Nagar ( Hyderabad ) Phone 8250192130 | ₹5k To 25k With Room...
VIP Call Girls LB Nagar ( Hyderabad ) Phone 8250192130 | ₹5k To 25k With Room...VIP Call Girls LB Nagar ( Hyderabad ) Phone 8250192130 | ₹5k To 25k With Room...
VIP Call Girls LB Nagar ( Hyderabad ) Phone 8250192130 | ₹5k To 25k With Room...Suhani Kapoor
 
Andheri Call Girls In 9825968104 Mumbai Hot Models
Andheri Call Girls In 9825968104 Mumbai Hot ModelsAndheri Call Girls In 9825968104 Mumbai Hot Models
Andheri Call Girls In 9825968104 Mumbai Hot Modelshematsharma006
 
OAT_RI_Ep19 WeighingTheRisks_Apr24_TheYellowMetal.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep19 WeighingTheRisks_Apr24_TheYellowMetal.pptxOAT_RI_Ep19 WeighingTheRisks_Apr24_TheYellowMetal.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep19 WeighingTheRisks_Apr24_TheYellowMetal.pptxhiddenlevers
 
Call US 📞 9892124323 ✅ Kurla Call Girls In Kurla ( Mumbai ) secure service
Call US 📞 9892124323 ✅ Kurla Call Girls In Kurla ( Mumbai ) secure serviceCall US 📞 9892124323 ✅ Kurla Call Girls In Kurla ( Mumbai ) secure service
Call US 📞 9892124323 ✅ Kurla Call Girls In Kurla ( Mumbai ) secure servicePooja Nehwal
 
call girls in Nand Nagri (DELHI) 🔝 >༒9953330565🔝 genuine Escort Service 🔝✔️✔️
call girls in  Nand Nagri (DELHI) 🔝 >༒9953330565🔝 genuine Escort Service 🔝✔️✔️call girls in  Nand Nagri (DELHI) 🔝 >༒9953330565🔝 genuine Escort Service 🔝✔️✔️
call girls in Nand Nagri (DELHI) 🔝 >༒9953330565🔝 genuine Escort Service 🔝✔️✔️9953056974 Low Rate Call Girls In Saket, Delhi NCR
 
Vip B Aizawl Call Girls #9907093804 Contact Number Escorts Service Aizawl
Vip B Aizawl Call Girls #9907093804 Contact Number Escorts Service AizawlVip B Aizawl Call Girls #9907093804 Contact Number Escorts Service Aizawl
Vip B Aizawl Call Girls #9907093804 Contact Number Escorts Service Aizawlmakika9823
 
How Automation is Driving Efficiency Through the Last Mile of Reporting
How Automation is Driving Efficiency Through the Last Mile of ReportingHow Automation is Driving Efficiency Through the Last Mile of Reporting
How Automation is Driving Efficiency Through the Last Mile of ReportingAggregage
 
(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...ranjana rawat
 
Call Girls In Yusuf Sarai Women Seeking Men 9654467111
Call Girls In Yusuf Sarai Women Seeking Men 9654467111Call Girls In Yusuf Sarai Women Seeking Men 9654467111
Call Girls In Yusuf Sarai Women Seeking Men 9654467111Sapana Sha
 
VIP Call Girls Service Dilsukhnagar Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130
VIP Call Girls Service Dilsukhnagar Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130VIP Call Girls Service Dilsukhnagar Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130
VIP Call Girls Service Dilsukhnagar Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130Suhani Kapoor
 
Instant Issue Debit Cards - High School Spirit
Instant Issue Debit Cards - High School SpiritInstant Issue Debit Cards - High School Spirit
Instant Issue Debit Cards - High School Spiritegoetzinger
 
Monthly Market Risk Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]
Monthly Market Risk Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]Monthly Market Risk Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]
Monthly Market Risk Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
 
Russian Call Girls In Gtb Nagar (Delhi) 9711199012 💋✔💕😘 Naughty Call Girls Se...
Russian Call Girls In Gtb Nagar (Delhi) 9711199012 💋✔💕😘 Naughty Call Girls Se...Russian Call Girls In Gtb Nagar (Delhi) 9711199012 💋✔💕😘 Naughty Call Girls Se...
Russian Call Girls In Gtb Nagar (Delhi) 9711199012 💋✔💕😘 Naughty Call Girls Se...shivangimorya083
 
Dharavi Russian callg Girls, { 09892124323 } || Call Girl In Mumbai ...
Dharavi Russian callg Girls, { 09892124323 } || Call Girl In Mumbai ...Dharavi Russian callg Girls, { 09892124323 } || Call Girl In Mumbai ...
Dharavi Russian callg Girls, { 09892124323 } || Call Girl In Mumbai ...Pooja Nehwal
 
Dividend Policy and Dividend Decision Theories.pptx
Dividend Policy and Dividend Decision Theories.pptxDividend Policy and Dividend Decision Theories.pptx
Dividend Policy and Dividend Decision Theories.pptxanshikagoel52
 

Recently uploaded (20)

VVIP Pune Call Girls Katraj (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Complete Sa...
VVIP Pune Call Girls Katraj (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Complete Sa...VVIP Pune Call Girls Katraj (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Complete Sa...
VVIP Pune Call Girls Katraj (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Complete Sa...
 
02_Fabio Colombo_Accenture_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx
02_Fabio Colombo_Accenture_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx02_Fabio Colombo_Accenture_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx
02_Fabio Colombo_Accenture_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx
 
Stock Market Brief Deck for 4/24/24 .pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for 4/24/24 .pdfStock Market Brief Deck for 4/24/24 .pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for 4/24/24 .pdf
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 17.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 17.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 17.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 17.pdf
 
VIP Call Girls LB Nagar ( Hyderabad ) Phone 8250192130 | ₹5k To 25k With Room...
VIP Call Girls LB Nagar ( Hyderabad ) Phone 8250192130 | ₹5k To 25k With Room...VIP Call Girls LB Nagar ( Hyderabad ) Phone 8250192130 | ₹5k To 25k With Room...
VIP Call Girls LB Nagar ( Hyderabad ) Phone 8250192130 | ₹5k To 25k With Room...
 
Andheri Call Girls In 9825968104 Mumbai Hot Models
Andheri Call Girls In 9825968104 Mumbai Hot ModelsAndheri Call Girls In 9825968104 Mumbai Hot Models
Andheri Call Girls In 9825968104 Mumbai Hot Models
 
OAT_RI_Ep19 WeighingTheRisks_Apr24_TheYellowMetal.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep19 WeighingTheRisks_Apr24_TheYellowMetal.pptxOAT_RI_Ep19 WeighingTheRisks_Apr24_TheYellowMetal.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep19 WeighingTheRisks_Apr24_TheYellowMetal.pptx
 
Call US 📞 9892124323 ✅ Kurla Call Girls In Kurla ( Mumbai ) secure service
Call US 📞 9892124323 ✅ Kurla Call Girls In Kurla ( Mumbai ) secure serviceCall US 📞 9892124323 ✅ Kurla Call Girls In Kurla ( Mumbai ) secure service
Call US 📞 9892124323 ✅ Kurla Call Girls In Kurla ( Mumbai ) secure service
 
call girls in Nand Nagri (DELHI) 🔝 >༒9953330565🔝 genuine Escort Service 🔝✔️✔️
call girls in  Nand Nagri (DELHI) 🔝 >༒9953330565🔝 genuine Escort Service 🔝✔️✔️call girls in  Nand Nagri (DELHI) 🔝 >༒9953330565🔝 genuine Escort Service 🔝✔️✔️
call girls in Nand Nagri (DELHI) 🔝 >༒9953330565🔝 genuine Escort Service 🔝✔️✔️
 
Veritas Interim Report 1 January–31 March 2024
Veritas Interim Report 1 January–31 March 2024Veritas Interim Report 1 January–31 March 2024
Veritas Interim Report 1 January–31 March 2024
 
Vip B Aizawl Call Girls #9907093804 Contact Number Escorts Service Aizawl
Vip B Aizawl Call Girls #9907093804 Contact Number Escorts Service AizawlVip B Aizawl Call Girls #9907093804 Contact Number Escorts Service Aizawl
Vip B Aizawl Call Girls #9907093804 Contact Number Escorts Service Aizawl
 
How Automation is Driving Efficiency Through the Last Mile of Reporting
How Automation is Driving Efficiency Through the Last Mile of ReportingHow Automation is Driving Efficiency Through the Last Mile of Reporting
How Automation is Driving Efficiency Through the Last Mile of Reporting
 
(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
 
Call Girls In Yusuf Sarai Women Seeking Men 9654467111
Call Girls In Yusuf Sarai Women Seeking Men 9654467111Call Girls In Yusuf Sarai Women Seeking Men 9654467111
Call Girls In Yusuf Sarai Women Seeking Men 9654467111
 
VIP Call Girls Service Dilsukhnagar Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130
VIP Call Girls Service Dilsukhnagar Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130VIP Call Girls Service Dilsukhnagar Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130
VIP Call Girls Service Dilsukhnagar Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130
 
Instant Issue Debit Cards - High School Spirit
Instant Issue Debit Cards - High School SpiritInstant Issue Debit Cards - High School Spirit
Instant Issue Debit Cards - High School Spirit
 
Monthly Market Risk Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]
Monthly Market Risk Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]Monthly Market Risk Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]
Monthly Market Risk Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]
 
Russian Call Girls In Gtb Nagar (Delhi) 9711199012 💋✔💕😘 Naughty Call Girls Se...
Russian Call Girls In Gtb Nagar (Delhi) 9711199012 💋✔💕😘 Naughty Call Girls Se...Russian Call Girls In Gtb Nagar (Delhi) 9711199012 💋✔💕😘 Naughty Call Girls Se...
Russian Call Girls In Gtb Nagar (Delhi) 9711199012 💋✔💕😘 Naughty Call Girls Se...
 
Dharavi Russian callg Girls, { 09892124323 } || Call Girl In Mumbai ...
Dharavi Russian callg Girls, { 09892124323 } || Call Girl In Mumbai ...Dharavi Russian callg Girls, { 09892124323 } || Call Girl In Mumbai ...
Dharavi Russian callg Girls, { 09892124323 } || Call Girl In Mumbai ...
 
Dividend Policy and Dividend Decision Theories.pptx
Dividend Policy and Dividend Decision Theories.pptxDividend Policy and Dividend Decision Theories.pptx
Dividend Policy and Dividend Decision Theories.pptx
 

Maximizing Returns While Minimizing Risk

  • 2. Picton Mahoney Asset Management - Canada’s trusted hedge fund source At Picton Mahoney Asset Management (PMAM) we manage over $7.0 billion in assets for investors through three lines of investment solutions • Authentic hedge fund strategies • Sub-advisory services • Institutional long-only mandates Our Founding Principles: • Authenticity • Transparency • Capacity 2
  • 3. Investors need to ask themselves some “what if” questions regarding their portfolio • What if stock markets continue to rally? • What if interest rates rise? • What if stock/sector leadership change continues? If you don’t like the answers you are getting to these questions then it is time to reconsider your positioning and/or the investment tools you are using to build your portfolio 3
  • 4. Investment OutlookInvestment Outlook 4 Low Yields. HIGH STRESS. The price of perfection. What happens when the era of low, low rates comes to an end!?
  • 5. Market Summary – top 3 calls for 2013 • Inflection point for interest rates • Rotation trade out of bonds into stocks • Return of the credit pickers market 5
  • 6. Business case for hedged income, the three risks 6 Rate Risk: • Dollar value loss of a 1% increase in rates is at the highest in history Price Risk: • Investment grade priced to perfection with longest duration, lowest yield and highest price in history Credit Risk: • Default rates are low today at just over 2%, but through cycle they’ve averaged almost 5%
  • 7. Government bonds: no gain, all pain • “This time is different”—equities 1999/2000, oil 2008, “safe” bonds now? 7Source: Picton Mahoney Asset Management, CIBC Research, Treasury Direct, Bureau of Economic Analysis
  • 8. 1994, The Great Bond Massacre • Today, while we don’t expect a dramatic sell off in Government bonds, they are 30% more sensitive to a rise in rates than 1994 8 (30.0%) (25.0%) (20.0%) (15.0%) (10.0%) (5.0%) 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 5.00% 5.50% 6.00% 6.50% 7.00% 7.50% 8.00% 8.50% 9.00%Jan-94 Feb-94 Mar-94 Apr-94 May-94 Jun-94 Jul-94 Aug-94 Sep-94 Oct-94 Nov-94 Dec-94 Indicative%Losson10Yr %Yield 10Yr Long BondYield Indicative % Loss on 10Yr Source: Bloomberg, Bank of America Merrill Lynch
  • 9. Sensitivity analysis, visualize the pain 9 Source: Bloomberg, Picton Mahoney Asset Management (30.0%) (25.0%) (20.0%) (15.0%) (10.0%) (5.0%) 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 1.7% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% PercentageChangeinPrice Yield % Change in Market Value at VariousYields Current US 10Year Note—T 1 5∕8 % of 2022 1% Increase inYield Increase to 200 Year Avg yield $ Loss: ($25.00) $ Loss: ($9.00)
  • 10. Speaking of sensitivities, we’ve done well when Government’s have sold off • Outperformed 97% of the time! PM Income Opportunities Fund Class A since inception (December 2009) 10 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Picton Mahoney Asset Management Estimates (2.0%) (1.0%) 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152535455565758596061626364656667 Overperformance/(Underperformance)% Weeks When the 10-Year Experienced Negative Performance Our Outperformance In WeeksWhen the 10Year US Gov't Bond Was Negative 2010 2011 2012
  • 11. Can’t beat the relative value in High Yield • High Yield (HY) affords the best risk reward within fixed income - but it will be a credit-pickers market • High-end of the HY market (BB’s &B’s) remains our highest conviction outright call with: • Still-attractive valuations • Good carry • Low default risk • See excellent short side opportunity in pockets of high yield (especially ETF held bonds) • Prefer long/short to managed and managed to passive—but manage your manager 11
  • 12. High Yield remains the relative winner • High yield spreads remain in-line with historical averages and are attractive given low default expectations Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research 12 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 DefaultRate(%) Spread(Bps) Global HY Spread to Worst vs Global Default Rate Global HY Spread to Worst Long Term Average HY Spread Global Default Rate
  • 13. Bringing it to a trade – summary recommendations Strategy Level Picks: • Higher quality High Yield – B to BB • Investment Grade financials • Levered loans • Credit driven equity ideas Strategy Level Pans: • Government, Investment Grade and other rate sensitive mandates • Passive ETF strategies • ETF held high yield bonds • CCC rated corporate bonds 13
  • 14. Pull it all together, maximizing return and minimizing risk • Fund is right for today’s times – stability and returns • Objectives & Targets: • Maximize total return = 6 - 8% net of fees • Generate a sustainable distribution = 5% paid monthly • Preserving capital = Less volatile than high yield and stocks 14
  • 15. PMAM’s Income Investment Process • Powerful combination of credit and equity analytics 15
  • 16. Deep portfolio management team 16 TradingCredit Research David Picton President James Lawson Chief Investment Officer Phil Mesman Lead Portfolio Manager Ashley Kay Head Trader/Strategist Sam Goddard Trader Sam Acton Credit Analyst Kyle Marta Credit Analyst Phil Porat Credit Analyst Other PMAM Team Members 2 Traders 3 Portfolio Managers 5 Quantitative Analysts 10 Fundamental Analysts
  • 17. Our basic hedge fund strategy • Defensive income necessitates a value focus • Long: • Securities showing positive fundamental change, lower valuations and higher quality scores • Short: • Securities showing negative fundamental change, higher valuation and lower quality scores • Portfolio construction / risk control used to design portfolios that trade-off exposure to desired traits with specified volatility targets 17
  • 18. Strategy Examples Longs: • Flint Energy (URS) 7.5% of 2019 • Viterra Inc. (GLENLN) 6.406% of 2021 • Sherritt International Corp. (SCN) 7.5% of 2015 • Financials Shorts: • Meg Energy Corporation (MEGCN) 6 3/8s of 2023 • First Data Corporation (FDC) 6.75% of 2020 • Fortescue Metals Group (FMGAU) 7.0% of 2015 • Aimia (Aeroplan) Inc. (AIMCN) 5.6% of 2019 18
  • 19. PMAM Income Opportunities Fund 19 The inception date of the Class A Units of the fund is December 31, 2009. Performance and Performance Analysis data is presented since inception for Class A Units of the Fund. Performance data is compared a blended benchmark of 50% Merrill Lynch CDN HY Index & 50% Merrill Lynch US Master II (A) Index (CAD). The composition of the Funds’ portfolio will significantly differ from the benchmark due to the investment strategy employed. Please see “Investment Strategies” in the Confidential Offering Memorandum for more details. The Merrill Lynch Canadian Broad Market Index is provided for information purposes only. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with fund investments. This is for information only and is not an offer or solicitation to sell units of the fund. Complete information relating to the funds, including risk factors, is contained in the Confidential Offering Memorandum. This fund is not guaranteed, its values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Please see “Risk Factors” in the Confidential Offering Memorandum for more details. Targets: • 6-8% annual return; net of fees • Generate a sustainable distribution = 5% per year • Half the volatility of the Canadian High Yield Index
  • 20. Firm level advantages • Weekly pricing & Liquidity • Sold by Offering Memorandum • A Class 2/20 model & F Class 1/20 model • 5% initial distribution & 5% hurdle rate • High-water mark calculated weekly • We are partnered with top notch service providers: • Prime Brokers – Goldman Sachs, Scotia Capital Inc., • Canadian Legal Counsel – McMillan LLP • Auditor – PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP • Administrator – Citigroup Global Transaction Services 20