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The Future of Electricity in the Energy System of the Future


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A 'big picture view' on sustainable energy, reviewing 4 recently published integrated visions.

Published in: Technology, Economy & Finance
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The Future of Electricity in the Energy System of the Future

  1. 1. The future of electricity in the energy system of the future- A big picture view<br />Wind-to-Wheel Symposium<br />May 26, 2011<br />Barcelona<br />
  2. 2. Content<br />About Leonardo ENERGY<br />Energy sustainability – an elusive concept<br />4 integrated visions on energy<br />What do they have in common?<br />Implications for electricity<br />
  3. 3. About Leonardo ENERGY<br />Global Community for Sustainable Energy Professionals<br />Advocacy for good practice in regulation & standards<br />Resources for continuous professional development of energy professionals<br />Application notes & white papers<br />Webinars<br />E-learning courses<br /><br />
  4. 4. What is energy sustainability?<br />Sustainable energy is the provision of energy that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs. (Wikipedia)<br />Mark Jaccard: 2 conditions<br />Good prospects for enduring indefinitely the type & level of energy services it provides<br />Extraction, transformation, transport & consumption must be benign to people and ecosystems<br />
  5. 5. How much energy do we need?<br />2,400 kgoe/pp/year = 100 GJ/pp/year = 76 kWh/pp/day<br />
  6. 6. Integrated vision on energy #1<br />
  7. 7. The 70 kWh plan for the UK<br />
  8. 8. Integrated vision on energy #2<br />
  9. 9. How much EROEI is enough?<br />
  10. 10. Integrated vision on energy #3<br />
  11. 11. The Challenge of Finance<br />Total investment needed more than 100,000 B$<br />(world GDP ~ 60,000 B$)<br />Capacity numbers from the Jacobson report<br />Cost figures from L D Harvey – Energy & the New Reality<br />
  12. 12. How much do we spend on energy?<br />EU-27 cost of energy ~ 1,250 Billion Euro<br />(GDP 12,396 Billion Euro)<br />Spanish cost of energy ~ 100 Billion Euro<br />(GDP 1,081 Billion Euro)<br />
  13. 13. Energy taxes<br />
  14. 14. Integrated vision on energy #4<br />
  15. 15. How much energy do we really need?<br />
  16. 16. The dream<br />Physical and technical availability, on a large scale<br />Cost-effective<br />Low environmental impact<br />Socially acceptable & safe<br />
  17. 17. The Hydrogen Economy<br />Pros<br />Flexible system<br />Can be produced in many ways<br />Versatile in use<br />Storage<br />Cons<br />Significant losses through many conversions in production, storage & use<br />
  18. 18. The Bio-Energy Economy<br />Pros<br />100% renewable energy source & carrier in one<br />Easy storage<br />Rural development<br />Cons<br />Land use:<br />Low EROEI<br />Competition with food<br />Water use<br />Low value-added jobs<br />
  19. 19. The problem with biomass<br />Mc Kay: complete agricultural surface in UK can yield a maximum of 36 kWh/person/day<br /><ul><li>7 kWh/p/d (1/5th of agro-land) is the maximum we can realistically hope for
  20. 20. But we need a total of at least 80 kWh/p/d
  21. 21. Biomass “does not add up”</li></ul>Heinberg: bioenergy sources have EROEIs of around 5:1  too low to be of good use<br />
  22. 22. The electrical society<br />Pros<br />Many ways to produce electricity<br />Single infrastructure to cover all needs (and already largely existing)<br />High efficiency in use<br />Cons<br />Storage is difficult<br />Impact of the electricity system on landscape<br />Change in end-use systems:<br />Electric vehicles<br />Heat pumps for homes<br />
  23. 23. On what can we (probably) agree?<br />Time is pressing<br />Energy efficiency is vital<br />A diversified, cost-effective solution<br />Rapid growth for renewables<br />Increased interconnection capacity<br />New way to operate energy systems<br />Need for flexibility<br />Increasing role of electricity<br />The promise of wind, PV and CSP<br />
  24. 24. Wildcards – geothermal power<br />Geothermal energy can provide up to 10 times current global energy production.<br />World Energy Assessment:<br />600,000 EJ ‘useful accessible resource’<br />5,000 EJ resource<br />500 EJ reserve<br />
  25. 25. Wildcards – ocean energy<br />If we could harness 0.1% of the power of the oceans, we could support the energy needs of 15 billion people.<br />Mackay: 45 kW/m power in wave-front<br />World Energy Assessment:<br />7,400 EJ potential (7,200 from OTEC)<br />
  26. 26. Wildcards - hydropower<br />Canada, home to about 475 hydroelectric plants with a current capacity of 70,000 MW, producing about 355 TWh/yr <br />According to a study commissioned by the Canadian Hydropower Association, Canada has 163,000 MW of untapped hydropower potential<br /><br />
  27. 27. End-uses for energy<br />
  28. 28. How much energy for 1 kWh of electricity?<br />
  29. 29. How much energy will we need for a kWh?<br />
  30. 30. Environmental performance for heating solutions for the passive house<br />
  31. 31. Heating homes tomorrow<br />
  32. 32. Renewables-powered industrial processes<br />
  33. 33. Renewables-powered industrial processes<br />
  34. 34. New services (teleworking, web conferencing, building automation, …)<br />Electricity & other energy uses<br />Electric process heat<br />EV, HEV<br />Public transport<br />Heat pumps, reversible airconditioning<br />Reduction through increased fuel efficiency & fuel switching<br />?<br />Reduction through low energy & passive buildings<br />