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ENAM Securities                                                                                                                               CMP: Rs 543
              India Research                                                                                                                       Target Price: Rs 694
                                                                                                                                                  Potential Upside: 28%
                                                                                                                                                   Absolute Rating: BUY


Havells India
Relative to Sector: Outperformer                                                                                                                             Midcaps
Stock Data
No. of shares             : 125 mn
Market cap                : Rs 67.8 bn
52 week high/low          : Rs 616/ Rs 313
Avg. daily vol. (6mth)    : 349,900 shares
Bloomberg code            : HAVL IB
Reuters code
Shareholding (%)
                          : HVEL.BO
                         Jun-12 QoQ chg
                                                                       A closer look…calls for a re-rating
Promoters          :       61.6          0.0
FIIs               :       20.0           0.2
MFs / UTI          :        0.9         (0.1)
Banks / FIs        :        0.0           0.0
Others             :       17.5         (0.0)

Relative Performance
  200
                                                Financial Summary (Consolidated)
  150
                                                Y/E         N et Sales    Adj. PAT    Consensus        EPS      Change     P/ E    EV/ EBITDA        R oE    R oCE    DPS
  100                                           M arc h       ( R s mn)   ( R s mn)   EPS* ( R s.)   ( R s.)   ( Y oY %)    ( x)           ( x)      ( %)      ( %)   ( R s)
                                                2011          56,126        3,071                -     25          341         -              -       58       31       2.5
   50
                                                2012          65,182        3,700                -     30           20         -              -       46       32       6.5
     Jul-11            Jan-12         Jul-12
                                                2013E         73,301        4,285              35      34           16     15.8            9.5        38       35       7.5
          Sensex                Havells India   2014E         80,692        5,188              42      42           21     13.1            8.0        35       36       8.5
Source: ENAM Research, Bloomberg                Source: Company, ENAM estimates; Note: CMP as on 10 August 2012

Kashyap Pujara                                                   Punit Chokhani
Executive Director – Midcaps                                     Asst VP – Midcaps                                                                   August 13 , 2012
                                                                                                                                                                    1
kashyap.pujara@enam.com (+91 22 4325 1146)                       punit.chokhani@enam.com (+91 22 4325 1130)
Investment argument…
     We believe valuation at 16x FY13E and 13x FY14E EPS does not fully reflect the benefits from unmatched distribution,
     premium branding, and scalability potential from Sylvania. We value India business at 18x FY14E EPS of Rs 35 and
     Sylvania at 10x FY14E EPS of Rs 7 to arrive at our SOTP-based TP of 694 (17x FY14E). Initiate coverage with BUY.

     India business -- pillar of strength -- should be compared to companies like Page Ind, TTK Prestige, Exide and Whirlpool
     given similar (1) nature of business (dealer and brand-driven), (2) return ratios, and (3) consumption plays.
                      While Page trades at 23x FY14E (5-yr PAT CAGR of 40% with avg. RoCE of 30%), TTK trades at 22x FY14E despite higher RoCE and
                      PAT CAGR - the street expects return ratios of TTK to moderate over the next 2 years
                      Exide and Whirlpool are both secular stories with high return ratios but they trade at lower valuations as they are prone to business
                      cycles (whirlpool – vulnerable to mid cycle slowdowns and Exide - exposed to cyclical auto OEM market)
                      Given Havells standalone’s growth sustainability and return profile, we value it at 18x, which is higher than the valuation of Exide and
                      Whirlpool but lower than that of Page and TTK Prestige

                                     Earnings: Strong track record…                                                     …India business deserves 18x
                           80                                                                                 80

                           70                                                                                 70

                           60                                           TTK                                   60                                    TTK




                                                                                            5 -yr Avg RoC E
         5 -yr Avg RoC E




                                       Whirlpool                                                                            Whirlpool
                           50                    Havells                                                      50

                           40                  Standalone                                                     40
                                                                                                                                    Havells             Page
                                                            Page
                           30                                                                                 30                  Standalone
                                            Exide                                                                        Exide
                           20                                                                                 20

                           10                                                                                 10
                                10     20           30      40     50     60                                       10            15            20          25   30
                                               5 -yr PAT C AGR                                                                        F Y1 4 E PE (x)

Source: Capitaline, ENAM Research. NOTE: Whirlpool RoCE and PAT numbers are 3-year CAGR                                                                              2
…Investment argument
      Sylvania -- a potential cash cow: Management strategy to replicate India success in new geographies (emerging
      markets) would drive Sylvania’s earnings going forward. However, exposure to Europe would keep earnings muted in
      the short term. We value Sylvania at 10x FY14E EPS of Rs 7 (in line with peer average).

                                                    M kt Cap    Sales ( R s bn)   PAT ( R s bn)             EV/ EB ( x)                 P/ E ( x)                R oE ( %)
Co N ame           Country   Co. produc t           ( R s bn)   FY 13e   FY 14e   FY 13e   FY 14e     FY 12 FY 13e FY 14e       FY 12 FY 13e FY 14e      FY 12 FY 13e FY 14e
Koninklijke Phil   Holland   lighting, appliances     1,310     1,658     1,729      78       95       18          7        6    (14)        15     12     (9)         9     11
Foshan Elec-B      China     Lighting                    54        23        26       3           3    14         na       na     15          9      8     10          na    na
Zumtobel Ag        Austria   lighting, appliances        26        88        91       2           3     6          6       5      25        17       9      4          6     11
Average                                                                                                13          6       5       8        14      10



                                                                                                                          SOTP valuation                         F Y1 4 E
 Comfort factors:                                                                                                         Havells Standalone
                                                                                                                          FY14E EPS (Rs)                               35
      Distribution and branding act as a key entry barrier for the business. It has
                                                                                                                          P/E Multiple                                18
      16,000+ dealers across the world (6,000 in India). India is adding 700-800
      dealers a year. Annual ad spends are > Rs 1 bn (3% of sales)                                                        Value Per Share (Rs)                      625
                                                                                                                          Sylvania
      40% profit CAGR over last 20 years on the back of product launches and                                              FY14E EPS (Rs)                                7
      acquisitions. We expect 11% revenue and 18% profit CAGR over FY12-14.                                               P/E Multiple                                10
      India business has been growing at 3x GDP for the last five years                                                   Value Per Share (Rs)                       69
                                                                                                                          Total Value (Rs)                          694
      Channel financing helps to reduce working capital requirement and
      increase dealer loyalty in India. Note Havells is one of the few companies in
      its space having the ability to avail channel financing, which gives it a
      distinct competitive advantage


Source: Bloomberg, ENAM Research                                                                                                                                             3
Company overview
                                                                        Havells consolidated – FY12
                                                                        Revenue            :   Rs 65.2 bn
                                                                        EBITDA             :   Rs 6.7 bn
                                                                        PAT                :   Rs 3.7 bn
                                                                        Capital employed   :   Rs 20.0 bn
                                                                        RoCE               :   30%




                                     Havells India – FY12                                                         Sylvania – FY12
                                 Revenue         :   Rs 36.2 bn                                             Revenue           :   Rs 29.0 bn
                                 EBITDA          :   Rs 4.6 bn                                              EBITDA            :   Rs 2.1 bn
                                 PAT             :   Rs 3.0 bn                                              PAT               :   Rs 0.7 bn




                           B2B                                        B2C                                                B2C
                     Electrical cables –                    Lighting fixtures & lamps -
                        44% of sales                               15% of sales                                Lighting fixtures & lamps -
                  4-year value CAGR – 14%                   4-year value CAGR – 20%
                  Contribution margin – 8%                  Contribution margin – 23%                            Europe – 62% of sales

                  Domestic switchgears –                     Consumer appliances –
                      25% of sales                                16% of sales                                   Latin America & Asia -
                  4-year value CAGR – 15%                                                                             38% of sales
                                                            4-year value CAGR – 26%
                  Contribution margin – 35%                 Contribution margin – 27%




Source: Company, ENAM Research    Refer Appendix for product details                                                                           4
Table of contents
                      Slide No.

 India business              6

 Sylvania                   12

 Risk factors               15

 Company financials         16

 Appendix                   19




                                  5
India Business
Growth in its DNA




                    6
Key strategy and strengths



                                                                    Havells strategy is to cater to all electrical
                                                                    product requirements of its customers,
                                                                    leveraging on the same channel/ brand
                          DEALERS                                       Larger product basket
                                                                        Focus on channel management
                                                                        Brand positioning to equal quality supremacy
                                                                        Transition from B2B to B2C segment




                        Multiple Products, Universal Branding, One Distribution Channel

Source: ENAM Research                                                                                                  7
Distribution to PUSH…
    Havells has built one of the largest distribution network in the industry                          Dealer network ↑ 6x in 8 years
          Distribution network of 6,000 dealers reaching out to 1,00,000 retailers                                     2003    2011         Increase (x)
                                                                                                       Dealers         1,000   5,600                 5.6
          Successfully expanding product portfolio through the established network,
                                                                                                       Retailers      25,000 100,000                 4.0
          while simultaneously expanding the network itself
                                                                                                        Year          Product launches
               Adding 700-800 dealers every year to its existing network
                                                                                                        1976          Switchgears
                                                                                                        1980          Electric meters
    Impetus on dealer growth to grow core business                                                      1996          Cables and wires
          Entire business is through dealers. Personal attention and incentive                          2003          Fans, lighting fittings and CFL
                                                                                                        2006          Modular switches
          programs are high on agenda to motivate dealers and enhance loyalty.
                                                                                                        2007          Power capacitors and motors
          Channel financing                                                                             2010          Water heaters
               Havells is one of the few companies in the space to offer channel financing to           2011          Small consumer appliances
               its dealers through banks
               Dealers get working capital loans from banks. Interest payable on these loans
               is passed on as a cash discount to the dealers by Havells                              Benefits of channel financing
               Loans have a 5% recourse on Havells but are completely insured                         Havells                      Insured 5%
                                                                                                                                     recourse
               Channel financing not only increases dealer loyalty, but also strengthens
               Havells’ balance sheet                                                                 Cash discount

   Channel Financing has reduced working capital requirement of Havells
    Rs mn                           F Y0 7     F Y0 8      F Y0 9     F Y1 0     F Y1 1     F Y1 2     Dealer                Interest           Bank
    Debtors reported                 310          661        867         795    1,121      1,597
    D ebtors (incl. factoring)   2 ,3 0 7    3 ,0 4 6   2 ,7 5 2    3 ,6 0 6   4 ,9 5 6   6 ,7 4 0
    D ebtor cycle (D ays)
                                                                                                     Reduces working capital
    Reported                           7         12          14         12         14         16
    Incl. factoring                   55         54          46         56         63         68     Enhances purchasing power of dealer

Source: Company, ENAM Research                                                                                                                             8
…Branding to PULL
        The company has created a strong umbrella brand – HAVELLS -- all products are sold under this single brand.

        Havells has positioned itself as a premium player in the electrical consumer segment to PULL customers.

        A strong balance sheet enables it to build brand equity --- ad spend of more than Rs 1 bn (~3% of sales),
        which is difficult to replicate by other players in this space.

        Company-owned Havells World and dealer-run Havells Galaxy are brand initiatives of their own kind
              Havells World outlets are used by the company to showcase its product range, provide technical assistance to dealers,
              and improve visibility of its brands. Walk-in customers are diverted to dealers
              The company plans to increase its exclusive retail outlets (Havells Galaxy) to 200 in FY13 from 140 currently

                 Exclusive outlets – a branding initiative                               Havells’ ad spend :~3% of sales
                                                                           1,200                                                         4
                                                                                    (Rs mn)                                        (%)
                                                                           1,000
                                                                                                                                         3
                                                                             800

                                                                             600                                                         2

                                                                             400
                                                                                                                                         1
                                                                             200

                                                                               0                                                         0
                                                                                     FY08       FY09    FY10       FY11        FY12
                                                                                       Havells (LHS)           Bajaj Electricals (LHS)
                                                                                       Havells (RHS)           Bajaj Electricals (RHS)

Source: Company, ENAM Research                                                                                                               9
Sustainable growth…
                              Consistent growth                                                            Stable margin
        15                                                              12   80
                (x)                                               (%)               (%)
        12                                                              10   60
                                                                        8    40
          9
                                                                        6    20
          6
                                                                        4      0
          3                                                             2    (20)
          0                                                             0    (40)
               Mar-94
               Mar-95
               Mar-96
               Mar-97
               Mar-98
               Mar-99
               Mar-00
               Mar-01
               Mar-02
               Mar-03
               Mar-04
               Mar-05
               Mar-06
               Mar-07
               Mar-08
               Mar-09
               Mar-10
               Mar-11
               Mar-12




                                                                                    FY04

                                                                                           FY05

                                                                                                    FY06

                                                                                                           FY07

                                                                                                                  FY08

                                                                                                                         FY09

                                                                                                                                 FY10

                                                                                                                                         FY11

                                                                                                                                                FY12
                           Havells Sales growth as a multiple to GDP                              EBITDA margin                 Copper
                           Real GDP (RHS)                                                         Aluminium                     Steel



          Since its listing in 1993, revenue has grown at                      EBIDTA margin has been in 10-13% band
          average multiple of 6x GDP growth.                                   over the last decade, despite volatile raw
                                                                               material prices.
          Despite higher revenue base and sluggish
          economy, domestic revenue has grown at 3x GDP
          growth in the last 5 years.


              Given its strengths and strategy, we believe Havells’ domestic revenue will continue to post 15-
                         20% CAGR with sustainable EBIDTA margin of 12-13% over next few years

Source: Company, Business Beacon, Bloomberg                                                                                                            10
…with strong cash flows
               Revenue to post 19% CAGR (FY12-14E)                                                               Channel financing-
                        with stable margin                                                             Shrinking working capital requirement
         60                                                         13.0                          6                                                     60
               (Rs bn)                                        (%)                                      (Days)                                     (%)
         50                                                         12.8                          4                                                     40
         40
                                                                    12.6                          2                                                     20
         30
                                                                    12.4                          0                                                     0
         20

         10                                                         12.2                        (2)                                                     (20)

          0                                                         12.0                        (4)                                                     (40)
                 FY11            FY12     FY13E       FY14E                                              FY11         FY12     FY13E      FY14E
                         Revenue        EBITDA margin (RHS)                                                      Wcap (days)    Core RoCE (RHS)


                                                                      Strong cash generation
                                                  5
                                                      (Rs bn)
                                                  4

                                                  3

                                                  2

                                                  1

                                                  0
                                                          FY11               FY12         FY13E          FY14E
                                                                           Cash Flow from operations

Source: Company, ENAM Research                                                                                                                                 11
Sylvania
To replicate Havells India success story




                                           12
India not enough; eyeing the globe
 Expansion in other geographies to address                             A well-structured bet
 scalability ceiling. Acquisition of Sylvania in 2007 –                Funding                              (mn €) Comments
                                                                       EV                                       235
 1st major step in that direction.
                                                                       Pension Liabilities                      35
                                                                       Recourse Loan on Havells India                 80 Repayed € 50 mn by timely equity infusion from
 Sylvania business in line with domestic strategy                                                                        Warbug Pincus

     Distribution network of over 10,000 dealers -                                                                       Repaid € 23 mn in 7 tranches of € 3.3 mn
                                                                       Non Recourse Loan                        120      Term loan of € 80 mn - Repayed € 17 mn
     presence across Europe, LatAm and Asia
                                                                                                                         Refinanced the remaining. Current Loan of € 117 mn
     Sylvania is a 100-year old brand - well entrenched in
     the market place. This has transformed Havells into a                               Post acquisition,                                   Restructured operations
                                                                                       Sylvania slipped into                                   enabled turnaround.
     global player competing with the likes of Philips, GE                              losses due to Euro                                    EBIDTA margin moved
     and Osram                                                                             zone issues                                           from -3% to 8%

                                                                  12
                                                                            (%)
 Successfully executed turnaround
                                                                                                                10                                  10
     Immediately after the acquisition, Lehman and Euro            8                         9                                9          9                    9
                                                                                                       9                                                               8
     zone crisis (Europe- 61 % of sale) caused Sylvania to slip                   8
                                                                                                                                                          7
                                                                                                                                                                   8
                                                                                                                                                6
     into losses, thus breaching covenants
                                                                   4                                                                 5
     Havells restructured operations at Sylvania by                                                                      4
                                                                                                            3
         shutting plants
                                                                   0
         retrenching staff across Europe                                    (3)
                                                                                       (3)       (1)
         outsourcing manufacturing to low cost countries
                                                                  (4)
         Havells took a restructuring charge of ~Rs 5 bn over
                                                                              H1FY10


                                                                                        9MFY10


                                                                                                  FY10


                                                                                                             H1FY11


                                                                                                                          9MFY11


                                                                                                                                      FY11


                                                                                                                                                 H1FY12


                                                                                                                                                          9MFY12


                                                                                                                                                                   FY12
         FY09-10
     Havells managed to turnaround Sylvania in FY10
                                                                                                           Europe                  America

                                                                            Source: Company                                                                                13
Sylvania – Potential cash cow
 Roadmap                                                   Focus: To tilt sales to LatAM and Asia
     Europe – Focus on profitability                       Sales Mix                 F Y1 0     F Y1 2    F Y1 3 E   F Y1 4 E
         After successfully reducing costs, focus now is   Europe                        71%        61%         0%         0%
                                                           Latin America + Others        29%        39%         0%         0%
         to improve realizations to pass on costs
         To increase outsourcing (45% of Europe sales
         is outsourced from China)
                                                           Refinanced debt – payment schedule
     LatAm and emerging markets to drive growth            Euro mn                  FY13       FY14       FY15       FY16       FY17    Total
         Revenue mix shifting towards Latin America +      By Sylvania                 4         11         14         16         32      77
         other markets. (Revenue growing at 10-12%         By Havells India           40          0          0          0          0      40
                                                           Total                      44         11         14         16         32     117
         vs. flat growth in Europe)
         Plans to enter other EMs - South Africa and
         China

                                                           A potential cash cow
 Opportunity to cross-sell
                                                            Euro mn                   FY12      FY13E     FY14E      FY15E      FY16E
     Havells has started exporting switchgears to           PAT                         10          9        12         16         21
     Europe to leverage on Sylvania’s distribution          (+) Depreciation             8          7         7          7          7
                                                            (-) Chng wcap                8          3         1          0          1
     network
                                                            (-) Capex                    4          4         4          4          4
     Sylvania’s range of fixtures will be introduced in     FCF                          6          9        14         19         23
     India by a plant set up by Havells in Nirmana          Cash & Bank                 13
                                                            Debt Repayment                            4      11         14        16
     (Rajasthan)
                                                           Source: Company, ENAM Research

 Sylvania is well poised to repay debt from its
 own cash flows


                                                                                                                                         14
Risks to call

  Sylvania’s exposure to Europe                New acquisitions                       Risk of inventory

      Sylvania generates 62% of its    Havells plans to enter new emerging   While working capital of the company
  revenue from Europe. A slowdown in      markets like Africa and China        is negligible (largely due to channel
     Europe can significantly impact     through acquisitions. Failure to     financing), Havells carries the risk of
         Sylvania’s performance.        integrate these new acquisitions       inventory write-downs mainly in the
                                         can impact future performance.         cables and wires business (45% of
                                                                             domestic revenue). Key raw materials
                                                                                    are copper and aluminum.



             Mitigant                              Mitigant                               Mitigant


  The company has been shifting its    In the past 20 years, Havells has      Even though this could lead to
  revenue mix towards Latin            acquired multiple companies and        quarterly lumpiness, historically,
  America and Asia - up from 29% of    managed to scale them well as          Havells has managed to maintain
  sales in FY10 to 39% in FY12.        indicated by its 20-year PAT CAGR      standalone annual margin in the
                                       of 40%.                                10-13% range.




                                                                                                                        15
Company financials…
  Consolidated assumptions
  H avells Standalone ( R s bn)            FY 11       FY 12   FY 13E   FY 14E   Sylvania ( Euro mn)               FY 11   FY 12   FY 13E   FY 14E
  Switc hgear ( A)                            8         10        11       12    Net R evenue                       450     448      452      466
  Value growth (YoY)                         12%        23%      12%      12%    Value growth (YoY)                  9%      0%       1%       3%
  Contribution margin (%)                    34%        34%      34%      34%
                                                                                 EBIT                               18      31       28       32
  Cables ( B)                                14         18       21       25
                                                                                 EBIT margin (%)                   4.0%    6.8%     6.2%     6.8%
  Value growth (YoY)                         28%        29%      18%      18%
  Contribution margin (%)                     7%         8%       8%       8%
  Lighting & Fixtures ( C)                     5         6         8        9
                                                                                 H avells Consolidated ( R s bn)   FY 11   FY 12   FY 13E   FY 14E
  Value growth (YoY)                         28%        27%      25%      25%
                                                                                 Net R evenue                       56      65       73       81
  Contribution margin (%)                    17%        23%      23%      23%
                                                                                 Value growth (YoY)                  9%     16%      12%      10%
  Consumer Durables ( D)                       5         6         8      10
                                                                                 EBIT                              5.0     6.0       6.8      7.9
  Value growth (YoY)                         40%        23%      25%      25%
                                                                                 EBIT margin (%)                   8.9%    9.3%     9.3%     9.7%
  Contribution margin (%)                    26%        27%      27%      27%


  ( A) +( B) +( C) +( D)                     32         40       47       56
  Less ( Discounts, excise duty)                3         4        4        5
  Net R evenue                                29         36       43       51
  Standalone Unallocable Exp                    2          4       4        5
  Standalone EBIT*                              3         4        5        6
  EBIT margin (%)                            11%        12%      12%      11%
  Note: EBIT = Segmental contribution - Unallocables




Source: Company, ENAM Research                                                                                                               16
…Company financials…
Profit & Loss                                          (Rs mn)            Key ratios                                                  (%)

Y/E March                  2011      2012    2013E      2014E             Y/E March                        2011    2012    2013E    2014E


Net sales                 56,126    65,182   73,301    80,692             Sales growth                        9      16       12       10
Other operating income       198        64      218        219
Total inc ome             56,324    65,246   73,519    80,911             O PM                               10      10       10       11
                                                                           Oper. profit growth               70      15       15       14
 Cost of goods sold       42,071    48,938   56,018     61,230             COGS / Net sales                  75      75       76       76
 Contribution (%)             25        25       24         24             Overheads/Net sales               15      15       13       14
 Advt/Sales/Distrn O/H     8,484     9,671    9,854     10,999            Depreciation / G. block             3       3        3        3
                                                                          Effective interest rate*            8      12       16       19
O perating Prof it         5,769     6,638    7,647      8,682
 Other income                 39       350      155        204            Net sales/ Net working cap (x)     27      22       21       19
                                                                          Net sales / Gr block (x)           2.0     2.2      2.4      2.6
PBIDT                      5,808     6,987    7,803      8,886
 Depreciation                804       949      979       1,022             Incremental RoCE                 88      80      187       85
 Interest*                   902     1,281    1,339       1,225           R oCE                              31      32       35       36
 Other pretax                  0         0        0           0            Debt / equity (x)                 1.7     1.0      0.5      0.4
Pre-tax profit             4,102     4,758    5,485      6,638             Effective tax rate                25      22       22       22
 Tax provision             1,031     1,058    1,200       1,450           R oE                               58      46       38       35
 (-) Minority Interests        0         0        0           0            Payout ratio (Div/NP)             10      22       22       20
 Associates                    0         0        0          0
Adjusted PAT               3,071     3,700    4,285      5,188            EPS ( R s.) ^                      25      30       34       42
E/o income / (Expense)       (30)        0        0           0            EPS Growth                       341      20       16       21
                                                                          CEPS (Rs.)                         31      37       42       50
R eported PAT              3,041     3,700    4,285      5,188            DPS (Rs.)                           3       7        8        9


                                                        Source: Company, ENAM Research
                                                      * Interest includes bank charges

                                                                                                                                       17
…Company financials
Balance sheet                                          (Rs mn)           Cash flow                                            (Rs mn)

Y/E March                 2011     2012     2013E       2014E            Y/E March              2011      2012      2013E     2014E


Total assets              18,275   20,010   20,419      23,851           Sourc es                 625     2,133         95     2,373
 Gross block              28,454   29,731   30,999       32,252           Cash profit            3,013     3,717     4,080      5,189
 Net fixed assets          9,955   10,284   10,572       10,803            (-) Dividends           207       811       936      1,061
 CWIP                        249      663      250          250           Retained earnings      2,806     2,906     3,145      4,128
 Investments                   0        0        0            0           Issue of equity            0         0         0          0
 Wkg. cap. (excl cash)     2,938    3,103    3,751        4,688           Borrowings               454    (1,273)   (2,943)     (696)
 Cash / Bank balance       1,779    2,336    2,221        4,485           Others                (2,635)      500     (106)     (1,059)
 Goodwill                  3,354    3,625    3,625        3,625
                                                                         Applic ations            625     2,133         95     2,373
Capital employed          18,275   20,010   20,419      23,851            Capital expenditure    2,029     1,277     1,268      1,253
 Equity capital              624      624      624         624            Investments              310         0         0          0
 Reserves                  5,920    8,930   12,282       16,410           Net current assets    (2,013)    (164)     (649)      (937)
 Borrowings               11,173    9,900    6,957        6,261           Change in cash           299     1,020     (524)      2,057
 Deferred Tax Liability      559      556      556          556




                                                     Source: Company, ENAM Research




                                                                                                                                    18
Appendix

Havells: 20-year earnings CAGR of 40%
Product portfolio
New launches
Domestic business: Segmental performance
Sylvania – Product range



                                           19
20-year earnings CAGR of 40%
                                                                                                                        Leveraging on strengths:
                                                                                                                        consumer appliances &
                                                                                   Transformation phase:                cross selling of products
                                            Expansion of product                        Global foray
                                                 portfolio                                                                      2010…
  Transformation phase:                                                                 2007 - 10
Distributor to manufacturer                       2003 - 07
                                                                                                                        Leveraging on a well-
      1958 - 2003                         Forayed into fans, lighting and
                                                                                   In 2007, Havells acquired
                                                                                                                        established distribution
                                                                                   Sylvania – A 100-year old
                                          CFLs in 2003, positioning its                                                 network and brand, Havells
                                                                                   lighting major in Europe to
 In 1958, started as a mere               products in the premium                                                       successfully introduced a
                                                                                   gain global footprint
 distributor of switches                  category                                                                      range of water heaters
                                                                                   Acquisition was an LBO,              (2010) and small consumer
 Acquired brand “Havells” in              As a result of its strong brand          wherein Havells acquired a           appliances (2011) in the
 1971 and started                         and distribution network, Havells        global business for                  Indian market. This would
 manufacturing switchgears                garnered significant market              ~Rs 16 bn with an equity             drive volume in future
 and meters                               share in a short span of time            investment of Rs 1.6 bn
                                                                                                                        It is now bringing in lighting
 Post listing in 1993, it                 2006 market share: ~6% in                Restructured operations              range from Sylvania into
 ventured into cable/wire                 fans, 3% in lightings, ~10% in           post the European crisis &           India
 manufacturing                            CFLs                                     turned around Sylvania
 Rs mn                             1993       2003            2007             2010         2013E        2 0 YR C AGR
 Revenue                            109       2,525          15,472           51,626        73,301                38%
 EBITDA                              14         255           1,458            3,222         7,647                37%
 Margin                             13%         10%              9%               6%           10%
 PAT                                  5          90           1,021              696         4,285               41%          Aberration: Sylvania
 RoCE                                           20%             45%             16%            34%                         slipped into losses due to
                                                                                                                               the European crisis

                                   New product launches and acquisitions led to robust performance
  Source: Company, ENAM Research                                                                                                                         20
Havells India – Product portfolio
          Domestic switchgear – MCB                 Peers
      1     Mkt size ~ INR 16 bn                       Legrand (MDS & Indo Asian)
            Market share ~ 28% (15% in 2006)           Schneider


          Modular Switches – Crabtree               Peers
            Mkt size ~ INR 14 bn                       Matsushita/ Anchor
      2     Mkt share ~ 15% (5% in 2006)               Roma
                                                       Legrand


          Industrial switchgear                     Peers
             Mkt size ~ INR 30 bn                      L&T
      5      Market share ~ 6% (7% in 2006)            Schneider, Siemens
                                                       ABB


          Cable & Wire                              Peers
             Mkt size ~ INR 170 bn                     Cable          Wire
      2      Market share ~ 9% (6% in 2006)               Polycab     Finolex
                                                          KEI         Polycab


          Lighting – CFL                            Peers
             Mkt size ~ INR 20 bn                      Philips
      3      Mkt share ~ 11% (10% in 2006)             Surya
                                                       Osram


          Lighting - Luminaires                     Peers
             Mkt size ~ INR 25 bn                      Philips
      4      Market share ~ 11% (3% in 2006)           Bajaj
                                                       Crompton
                                                       Wipro

          Electrical Consumer Durable - Fans        Peers
             Mkt size ~ INR 35 bn                      Crompton
      3      Mkt share ~ 15% (6% in 2006)              Usha
                                                       Orient


                                               Source: Company                      21
New launches
         Small Domestic Appliances                Peers
   New     Mkt size ~ INR 50 bn                     R Recold
                                                    Bajaj
                                                    Recold




                                     Source: Company           22
Domestic business: Segmental performance
                                Switchgears                                                                         Cables & Wires
   12,000                                                            40              20,000                                                                15
            (Rs mn)                                            (%)                                 (Rs mn)                                           (%)
   10,000
                                                                     38              16,000                                                                12
    8,000
                                                                     36              12,000                                                                9
    6,000
                                                                     34               8,000                                                                6
    4,000
                                                                     32               4,000                                                                3
    2,000

       0                                                             30                       0                                                            0
             FY07     FY08      FY09   FY10         FY11     FY12                                    FY07     FY08    FY09     FY10       FY11     FY12

                        Sales           Contribution (RHS)                                                    Sales           Contribution (RHS)




                                 Lighting                                                                 Electrical consumer durables
    8,000                                                            30              8,000                                                                 30
            (Rs mn)                                            (%)                                (Rs mn)                                            (%)
                                                                     25
    6,000                                                                            6,000                                                                 25

                                                                     20
    4,000                                                                            4,000                                                                 20
                                                                     15

    2,000                                                                            2,000                                                                 15
                                                                     10

       0                                                             5                   0                                                                 10
             FY07     FY08      FY09   FY10         FY11     FY12                                  FY07      FY08     FY09    FY10        FY11     FY12
                       Sales       contribution %                                                             Sales      contribution %



                                                             Source: Company, ENAM Research                                                                     23
Sylvania – Product range
Fixtures (33% of revenue)                              Lamps (55% of revenue)                           Others (12% of revenue)



Architectural   Industrial/   Fluorescent   Energy saving/   Incandescent   Halogen   High density
/ accent        commercial                  (CFL/ LED)                                discharge (HID)




                                            Major peers



   Zumtobel                     Philips
   Philips                      Osram
                                GE




                                                       Source: Company                                                    24
ENAM Securities Pvt. Ltd.
                                          Axis House, C2, Wadia International Centre, P.B Marg, Worli, Mumbai 400 025, India.
                                                   Tel:- Board +91-22 4325 2525; Dealing +91-22 2438 8861 - 69;
                                                    Fax:- Research +91-22 4325 1110; Dealing +91-22 4325 3500

                                                                                        CONFLICT OF INTEREST DISCLOSURE
We, at ENAM, are committed to providing the most honest and transparent advice to our clients. However, given the nature of the capital markets, from time to time we are faced with situations that could give rise to
potential conflict of interest. In order to provide complete transparency to our clients, before we make any recommendations, we are committed to making a disclosure of our interest and any potential conflict IN
ADVANCE so that the interests of our clients are safe- guarded at all times. In light of this policy, we have instituted what we believe to be the most comprehensive disclosure policy among leading investment
banks/brokerages in the world so that our clients may make an informed judgment about our recommendations. The following disclosures are intended to keep you informed before you make any decision- in addition, we
will be happy to provide information in response to specific queries that our clients may seek from us.
Disclosure of interest statement (As of August 8, 2012)
1. Analyst ownership of the stock                                                       No
2. Firm ownership of the stock                                                          No
3. Directors ownership of the stock                                                     No
4. Investment Banking mandate                                                           No
5. Broking relationship                                                                 No
                                       We are committed to providing completely independent and transparent recommendations to help our clients reach a better decision.



This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice,
and nothing in this document should be construed as an advice to buy or sell or solicitation to buy or sell the securities of companies referred to in this document. The intent of this document is not in recommendary nature
Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the
merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors
Enam Securities Private Limited has not independently verified all the information given in this document. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or
fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document
The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject
to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval
Enam securities Private Limited, its affiliates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned
in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities
functions as a separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document
This report has been prepared on the basis of information, which is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of ENAM Securities Private Limited. The views expressed are those of
analyst and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any
purpose. Neither this document nor any copy of it may be taken or transmitted into the United State (to U.S.Persons), Canada, or Japan or distributed, directly or indirectly, in the United States or Canada or distributed or
redistributed in Japan or to any resident thereof. The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about,
and observe, any such restrictions
Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise
from or in connection with the use of the information.
                                                                  Copyright in this document vests exclusively with ENAM Securities Private Limited.


                                                                                                                                                                                                                              25

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Enam havells aug2012

  • 1. ENAM Securities CMP: Rs 543 India Research Target Price: Rs 694 Potential Upside: 28% Absolute Rating: BUY Havells India Relative to Sector: Outperformer Midcaps Stock Data No. of shares : 125 mn Market cap : Rs 67.8 bn 52 week high/low : Rs 616/ Rs 313 Avg. daily vol. (6mth) : 349,900 shares Bloomberg code : HAVL IB Reuters code Shareholding (%) : HVEL.BO Jun-12 QoQ chg A closer look…calls for a re-rating Promoters : 61.6 0.0 FIIs : 20.0 0.2 MFs / UTI : 0.9 (0.1) Banks / FIs : 0.0 0.0 Others : 17.5 (0.0) Relative Performance 200 Financial Summary (Consolidated) 150 Y/E N et Sales Adj. PAT Consensus EPS Change P/ E EV/ EBITDA R oE R oCE DPS 100 M arc h ( R s mn) ( R s mn) EPS* ( R s.) ( R s.) ( Y oY %) ( x) ( x) ( %) ( %) ( R s) 2011 56,126 3,071 - 25 341 - - 58 31 2.5 50 2012 65,182 3,700 - 30 20 - - 46 32 6.5 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 2013E 73,301 4,285 35 34 16 15.8 9.5 38 35 7.5 Sensex Havells India 2014E 80,692 5,188 42 42 21 13.1 8.0 35 36 8.5 Source: ENAM Research, Bloomberg Source: Company, ENAM estimates; Note: CMP as on 10 August 2012 Kashyap Pujara Punit Chokhani Executive Director – Midcaps Asst VP – Midcaps August 13 , 2012 1 kashyap.pujara@enam.com (+91 22 4325 1146) punit.chokhani@enam.com (+91 22 4325 1130)
  • 2. Investment argument… We believe valuation at 16x FY13E and 13x FY14E EPS does not fully reflect the benefits from unmatched distribution, premium branding, and scalability potential from Sylvania. We value India business at 18x FY14E EPS of Rs 35 and Sylvania at 10x FY14E EPS of Rs 7 to arrive at our SOTP-based TP of 694 (17x FY14E). Initiate coverage with BUY. India business -- pillar of strength -- should be compared to companies like Page Ind, TTK Prestige, Exide and Whirlpool given similar (1) nature of business (dealer and brand-driven), (2) return ratios, and (3) consumption plays. While Page trades at 23x FY14E (5-yr PAT CAGR of 40% with avg. RoCE of 30%), TTK trades at 22x FY14E despite higher RoCE and PAT CAGR - the street expects return ratios of TTK to moderate over the next 2 years Exide and Whirlpool are both secular stories with high return ratios but they trade at lower valuations as they are prone to business cycles (whirlpool – vulnerable to mid cycle slowdowns and Exide - exposed to cyclical auto OEM market) Given Havells standalone’s growth sustainability and return profile, we value it at 18x, which is higher than the valuation of Exide and Whirlpool but lower than that of Page and TTK Prestige Earnings: Strong track record… …India business deserves 18x 80 80 70 70 60 TTK 60 TTK 5 -yr Avg RoC E 5 -yr Avg RoC E Whirlpool Whirlpool 50 Havells 50 40 Standalone 40 Havells Page Page 30 30 Standalone Exide Exide 20 20 10 10 10 20 30 40 50 60 10 15 20 25 30 5 -yr PAT C AGR F Y1 4 E PE (x) Source: Capitaline, ENAM Research. NOTE: Whirlpool RoCE and PAT numbers are 3-year CAGR 2
  • 3. …Investment argument Sylvania -- a potential cash cow: Management strategy to replicate India success in new geographies (emerging markets) would drive Sylvania’s earnings going forward. However, exposure to Europe would keep earnings muted in the short term. We value Sylvania at 10x FY14E EPS of Rs 7 (in line with peer average). M kt Cap Sales ( R s bn) PAT ( R s bn) EV/ EB ( x) P/ E ( x) R oE ( %) Co N ame Country Co. produc t ( R s bn) FY 13e FY 14e FY 13e FY 14e FY 12 FY 13e FY 14e FY 12 FY 13e FY 14e FY 12 FY 13e FY 14e Koninklijke Phil Holland lighting, appliances 1,310 1,658 1,729 78 95 18 7 6 (14) 15 12 (9) 9 11 Foshan Elec-B China Lighting 54 23 26 3 3 14 na na 15 9 8 10 na na Zumtobel Ag Austria lighting, appliances 26 88 91 2 3 6 6 5 25 17 9 4 6 11 Average 13 6 5 8 14 10 SOTP valuation F Y1 4 E Comfort factors: Havells Standalone FY14E EPS (Rs) 35 Distribution and branding act as a key entry barrier for the business. It has P/E Multiple 18 16,000+ dealers across the world (6,000 in India). India is adding 700-800 dealers a year. Annual ad spends are > Rs 1 bn (3% of sales) Value Per Share (Rs) 625 Sylvania 40% profit CAGR over last 20 years on the back of product launches and FY14E EPS (Rs) 7 acquisitions. We expect 11% revenue and 18% profit CAGR over FY12-14. P/E Multiple 10 India business has been growing at 3x GDP for the last five years Value Per Share (Rs) 69 Total Value (Rs) 694 Channel financing helps to reduce working capital requirement and increase dealer loyalty in India. Note Havells is one of the few companies in its space having the ability to avail channel financing, which gives it a distinct competitive advantage Source: Bloomberg, ENAM Research 3
  • 4. Company overview Havells consolidated – FY12 Revenue : Rs 65.2 bn EBITDA : Rs 6.7 bn PAT : Rs 3.7 bn Capital employed : Rs 20.0 bn RoCE : 30% Havells India – FY12 Sylvania – FY12 Revenue : Rs 36.2 bn Revenue : Rs 29.0 bn EBITDA : Rs 4.6 bn EBITDA : Rs 2.1 bn PAT : Rs 3.0 bn PAT : Rs 0.7 bn B2B B2C B2C Electrical cables – Lighting fixtures & lamps - 44% of sales 15% of sales Lighting fixtures & lamps - 4-year value CAGR – 14% 4-year value CAGR – 20% Contribution margin – 8% Contribution margin – 23% Europe – 62% of sales Domestic switchgears – Consumer appliances – 25% of sales 16% of sales Latin America & Asia - 4-year value CAGR – 15% 38% of sales 4-year value CAGR – 26% Contribution margin – 35% Contribution margin – 27% Source: Company, ENAM Research Refer Appendix for product details 4
  • 5. Table of contents Slide No. India business 6 Sylvania 12 Risk factors 15 Company financials 16 Appendix 19 5
  • 7. Key strategy and strengths Havells strategy is to cater to all electrical product requirements of its customers, leveraging on the same channel/ brand DEALERS Larger product basket Focus on channel management Brand positioning to equal quality supremacy Transition from B2B to B2C segment Multiple Products, Universal Branding, One Distribution Channel Source: ENAM Research 7
  • 8. Distribution to PUSH… Havells has built one of the largest distribution network in the industry Dealer network ↑ 6x in 8 years Distribution network of 6,000 dealers reaching out to 1,00,000 retailers 2003 2011 Increase (x) Dealers 1,000 5,600 5.6 Successfully expanding product portfolio through the established network, Retailers 25,000 100,000 4.0 while simultaneously expanding the network itself Year Product launches Adding 700-800 dealers every year to its existing network 1976 Switchgears 1980 Electric meters Impetus on dealer growth to grow core business 1996 Cables and wires Entire business is through dealers. Personal attention and incentive 2003 Fans, lighting fittings and CFL 2006 Modular switches programs are high on agenda to motivate dealers and enhance loyalty. 2007 Power capacitors and motors Channel financing 2010 Water heaters Havells is one of the few companies in the space to offer channel financing to 2011 Small consumer appliances its dealers through banks Dealers get working capital loans from banks. Interest payable on these loans is passed on as a cash discount to the dealers by Havells Benefits of channel financing Loans have a 5% recourse on Havells but are completely insured Havells Insured 5% recourse Channel financing not only increases dealer loyalty, but also strengthens Havells’ balance sheet Cash discount Channel Financing has reduced working capital requirement of Havells Rs mn F Y0 7 F Y0 8 F Y0 9 F Y1 0 F Y1 1 F Y1 2 Dealer Interest Bank Debtors reported 310 661 867 795 1,121 1,597 D ebtors (incl. factoring) 2 ,3 0 7 3 ,0 4 6 2 ,7 5 2 3 ,6 0 6 4 ,9 5 6 6 ,7 4 0 D ebtor cycle (D ays) Reduces working capital Reported 7 12 14 12 14 16 Incl. factoring 55 54 46 56 63 68 Enhances purchasing power of dealer Source: Company, ENAM Research 8
  • 9. …Branding to PULL The company has created a strong umbrella brand – HAVELLS -- all products are sold under this single brand. Havells has positioned itself as a premium player in the electrical consumer segment to PULL customers. A strong balance sheet enables it to build brand equity --- ad spend of more than Rs 1 bn (~3% of sales), which is difficult to replicate by other players in this space. Company-owned Havells World and dealer-run Havells Galaxy are brand initiatives of their own kind Havells World outlets are used by the company to showcase its product range, provide technical assistance to dealers, and improve visibility of its brands. Walk-in customers are diverted to dealers The company plans to increase its exclusive retail outlets (Havells Galaxy) to 200 in FY13 from 140 currently Exclusive outlets – a branding initiative Havells’ ad spend :~3% of sales 1,200 4 (Rs mn) (%) 1,000 3 800 600 2 400 1 200 0 0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 Havells (LHS) Bajaj Electricals (LHS) Havells (RHS) Bajaj Electricals (RHS) Source: Company, ENAM Research 9
  • 10. Sustainable growth… Consistent growth Stable margin 15 12 80 (x) (%) (%) 12 10 60 8 40 9 6 20 6 4 0 3 2 (20) 0 0 (40) Mar-94 Mar-95 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 Havells Sales growth as a multiple to GDP EBITDA margin Copper Real GDP (RHS) Aluminium Steel Since its listing in 1993, revenue has grown at EBIDTA margin has been in 10-13% band average multiple of 6x GDP growth. over the last decade, despite volatile raw material prices. Despite higher revenue base and sluggish economy, domestic revenue has grown at 3x GDP growth in the last 5 years. Given its strengths and strategy, we believe Havells’ domestic revenue will continue to post 15- 20% CAGR with sustainable EBIDTA margin of 12-13% over next few years Source: Company, Business Beacon, Bloomberg 10
  • 11. …with strong cash flows Revenue to post 19% CAGR (FY12-14E) Channel financing- with stable margin Shrinking working capital requirement 60 13.0 6 60 (Rs bn) (%) (Days) (%) 50 12.8 4 40 40 12.6 2 20 30 12.4 0 0 20 10 12.2 (2) (20) 0 12.0 (4) (40) FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E Revenue EBITDA margin (RHS) Wcap (days) Core RoCE (RHS) Strong cash generation 5 (Rs bn) 4 3 2 1 0 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E Cash Flow from operations Source: Company, ENAM Research 11
  • 12. Sylvania To replicate Havells India success story 12
  • 13. India not enough; eyeing the globe Expansion in other geographies to address A well-structured bet scalability ceiling. Acquisition of Sylvania in 2007 – Funding (mn €) Comments EV 235 1st major step in that direction. Pension Liabilities 35 Recourse Loan on Havells India 80 Repayed € 50 mn by timely equity infusion from Sylvania business in line with domestic strategy Warbug Pincus Distribution network of over 10,000 dealers - Repaid € 23 mn in 7 tranches of € 3.3 mn Non Recourse Loan 120 Term loan of € 80 mn - Repayed € 17 mn presence across Europe, LatAm and Asia Refinanced the remaining. Current Loan of € 117 mn Sylvania is a 100-year old brand - well entrenched in the market place. This has transformed Havells into a Post acquisition, Restructured operations Sylvania slipped into enabled turnaround. global player competing with the likes of Philips, GE losses due to Euro EBIDTA margin moved and Osram zone issues from -3% to 8% 12 (%) Successfully executed turnaround 10 10 Immediately after the acquisition, Lehman and Euro 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 zone crisis (Europe- 61 % of sale) caused Sylvania to slip 8 7 8 6 into losses, thus breaching covenants 4 5 Havells restructured operations at Sylvania by 4 3 shutting plants 0 retrenching staff across Europe (3) (3) (1) outsourcing manufacturing to low cost countries (4) Havells took a restructuring charge of ~Rs 5 bn over H1FY10 9MFY10 FY10 H1FY11 9MFY11 FY11 H1FY12 9MFY12 FY12 FY09-10 Havells managed to turnaround Sylvania in FY10 Europe America Source: Company 13
  • 14. Sylvania – Potential cash cow Roadmap Focus: To tilt sales to LatAM and Asia Europe – Focus on profitability Sales Mix F Y1 0 F Y1 2 F Y1 3 E F Y1 4 E After successfully reducing costs, focus now is Europe 71% 61% 0% 0% Latin America + Others 29% 39% 0% 0% to improve realizations to pass on costs To increase outsourcing (45% of Europe sales is outsourced from China) Refinanced debt – payment schedule LatAm and emerging markets to drive growth Euro mn FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Total Revenue mix shifting towards Latin America + By Sylvania 4 11 14 16 32 77 other markets. (Revenue growing at 10-12% By Havells India 40 0 0 0 0 40 Total 44 11 14 16 32 117 vs. flat growth in Europe) Plans to enter other EMs - South Africa and China A potential cash cow Opportunity to cross-sell Euro mn FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E Havells has started exporting switchgears to PAT 10 9 12 16 21 Europe to leverage on Sylvania’s distribution (+) Depreciation 8 7 7 7 7 (-) Chng wcap 8 3 1 0 1 network (-) Capex 4 4 4 4 4 Sylvania’s range of fixtures will be introduced in FCF 6 9 14 19 23 India by a plant set up by Havells in Nirmana Cash & Bank 13 Debt Repayment 4 11 14 16 (Rajasthan) Source: Company, ENAM Research Sylvania is well poised to repay debt from its own cash flows 14
  • 15. Risks to call Sylvania’s exposure to Europe New acquisitions Risk of inventory Sylvania generates 62% of its Havells plans to enter new emerging While working capital of the company revenue from Europe. A slowdown in markets like Africa and China is negligible (largely due to channel Europe can significantly impact through acquisitions. Failure to financing), Havells carries the risk of Sylvania’s performance. integrate these new acquisitions inventory write-downs mainly in the can impact future performance. cables and wires business (45% of domestic revenue). Key raw materials are copper and aluminum. Mitigant Mitigant Mitigant The company has been shifting its In the past 20 years, Havells has Even though this could lead to revenue mix towards Latin acquired multiple companies and quarterly lumpiness, historically, America and Asia - up from 29% of managed to scale them well as Havells has managed to maintain sales in FY10 to 39% in FY12. indicated by its 20-year PAT CAGR standalone annual margin in the of 40%. 10-13% range. 15
  • 16. Company financials… Consolidated assumptions H avells Standalone ( R s bn) FY 11 FY 12 FY 13E FY 14E Sylvania ( Euro mn) FY 11 FY 12 FY 13E FY 14E Switc hgear ( A) 8 10 11 12 Net R evenue 450 448 452 466 Value growth (YoY) 12% 23% 12% 12% Value growth (YoY) 9% 0% 1% 3% Contribution margin (%) 34% 34% 34% 34% EBIT 18 31 28 32 Cables ( B) 14 18 21 25 EBIT margin (%) 4.0% 6.8% 6.2% 6.8% Value growth (YoY) 28% 29% 18% 18% Contribution margin (%) 7% 8% 8% 8% Lighting & Fixtures ( C) 5 6 8 9 H avells Consolidated ( R s bn) FY 11 FY 12 FY 13E FY 14E Value growth (YoY) 28% 27% 25% 25% Net R evenue 56 65 73 81 Contribution margin (%) 17% 23% 23% 23% Value growth (YoY) 9% 16% 12% 10% Consumer Durables ( D) 5 6 8 10 EBIT 5.0 6.0 6.8 7.9 Value growth (YoY) 40% 23% 25% 25% EBIT margin (%) 8.9% 9.3% 9.3% 9.7% Contribution margin (%) 26% 27% 27% 27% ( A) +( B) +( C) +( D) 32 40 47 56 Less ( Discounts, excise duty) 3 4 4 5 Net R evenue 29 36 43 51 Standalone Unallocable Exp 2 4 4 5 Standalone EBIT* 3 4 5 6 EBIT margin (%) 11% 12% 12% 11% Note: EBIT = Segmental contribution - Unallocables Source: Company, ENAM Research 16
  • 17. …Company financials… Profit & Loss (Rs mn) Key ratios (%) Y/E March 2011 2012 2013E 2014E Y/E March 2011 2012 2013E 2014E Net sales 56,126 65,182 73,301 80,692 Sales growth 9 16 12 10 Other operating income 198 64 218 219 Total inc ome 56,324 65,246 73,519 80,911 O PM 10 10 10 11 Oper. profit growth 70 15 15 14 Cost of goods sold 42,071 48,938 56,018 61,230 COGS / Net sales 75 75 76 76 Contribution (%) 25 25 24 24 Overheads/Net sales 15 15 13 14 Advt/Sales/Distrn O/H 8,484 9,671 9,854 10,999 Depreciation / G. block 3 3 3 3 Effective interest rate* 8 12 16 19 O perating Prof it 5,769 6,638 7,647 8,682 Other income 39 350 155 204 Net sales/ Net working cap (x) 27 22 21 19 Net sales / Gr block (x) 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 PBIDT 5,808 6,987 7,803 8,886 Depreciation 804 949 979 1,022 Incremental RoCE 88 80 187 85 Interest* 902 1,281 1,339 1,225 R oCE 31 32 35 36 Other pretax 0 0 0 0 Debt / equity (x) 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.4 Pre-tax profit 4,102 4,758 5,485 6,638 Effective tax rate 25 22 22 22 Tax provision 1,031 1,058 1,200 1,450 R oE 58 46 38 35 (-) Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 Payout ratio (Div/NP) 10 22 22 20 Associates 0 0 0 0 Adjusted PAT 3,071 3,700 4,285 5,188 EPS ( R s.) ^ 25 30 34 42 E/o income / (Expense) (30) 0 0 0 EPS Growth 341 20 16 21 CEPS (Rs.) 31 37 42 50 R eported PAT 3,041 3,700 4,285 5,188 DPS (Rs.) 3 7 8 9 Source: Company, ENAM Research * Interest includes bank charges 17
  • 18. …Company financials Balance sheet (Rs mn) Cash flow (Rs mn) Y/E March 2011 2012 2013E 2014E Y/E March 2011 2012 2013E 2014E Total assets 18,275 20,010 20,419 23,851 Sourc es 625 2,133 95 2,373 Gross block 28,454 29,731 30,999 32,252 Cash profit 3,013 3,717 4,080 5,189 Net fixed assets 9,955 10,284 10,572 10,803 (-) Dividends 207 811 936 1,061 CWIP 249 663 250 250 Retained earnings 2,806 2,906 3,145 4,128 Investments 0 0 0 0 Issue of equity 0 0 0 0 Wkg. cap. (excl cash) 2,938 3,103 3,751 4,688 Borrowings 454 (1,273) (2,943) (696) Cash / Bank balance 1,779 2,336 2,221 4,485 Others (2,635) 500 (106) (1,059) Goodwill 3,354 3,625 3,625 3,625 Applic ations 625 2,133 95 2,373 Capital employed 18,275 20,010 20,419 23,851 Capital expenditure 2,029 1,277 1,268 1,253 Equity capital 624 624 624 624 Investments 310 0 0 0 Reserves 5,920 8,930 12,282 16,410 Net current assets (2,013) (164) (649) (937) Borrowings 11,173 9,900 6,957 6,261 Change in cash 299 1,020 (524) 2,057 Deferred Tax Liability 559 556 556 556 Source: Company, ENAM Research 18
  • 19. Appendix Havells: 20-year earnings CAGR of 40% Product portfolio New launches Domestic business: Segmental performance Sylvania – Product range 19
  • 20. 20-year earnings CAGR of 40% Leveraging on strengths: consumer appliances & Transformation phase: cross selling of products Expansion of product Global foray portfolio 2010… Transformation phase: 2007 - 10 Distributor to manufacturer 2003 - 07 Leveraging on a well- 1958 - 2003 Forayed into fans, lighting and In 2007, Havells acquired established distribution Sylvania – A 100-year old CFLs in 2003, positioning its network and brand, Havells lighting major in Europe to In 1958, started as a mere products in the premium successfully introduced a gain global footprint distributor of switches category range of water heaters Acquisition was an LBO, (2010) and small consumer Acquired brand “Havells” in As a result of its strong brand wherein Havells acquired a appliances (2011) in the 1971 and started and distribution network, Havells global business for Indian market. This would manufacturing switchgears garnered significant market ~Rs 16 bn with an equity drive volume in future and meters share in a short span of time investment of Rs 1.6 bn It is now bringing in lighting Post listing in 1993, it 2006 market share: ~6% in Restructured operations range from Sylvania into ventured into cable/wire fans, 3% in lightings, ~10% in post the European crisis & India manufacturing CFLs turned around Sylvania Rs mn 1993 2003 2007 2010 2013E 2 0 YR C AGR Revenue 109 2,525 15,472 51,626 73,301 38% EBITDA 14 255 1,458 3,222 7,647 37% Margin 13% 10% 9% 6% 10% PAT 5 90 1,021 696 4,285 41% Aberration: Sylvania RoCE 20% 45% 16% 34% slipped into losses due to the European crisis New product launches and acquisitions led to robust performance Source: Company, ENAM Research 20
  • 21. Havells India – Product portfolio Domestic switchgear – MCB Peers 1 Mkt size ~ INR 16 bn Legrand (MDS & Indo Asian) Market share ~ 28% (15% in 2006) Schneider Modular Switches – Crabtree Peers Mkt size ~ INR 14 bn Matsushita/ Anchor 2 Mkt share ~ 15% (5% in 2006) Roma Legrand Industrial switchgear Peers Mkt size ~ INR 30 bn L&T 5 Market share ~ 6% (7% in 2006) Schneider, Siemens ABB Cable & Wire Peers Mkt size ~ INR 170 bn Cable Wire 2 Market share ~ 9% (6% in 2006) Polycab Finolex KEI Polycab Lighting – CFL Peers Mkt size ~ INR 20 bn Philips 3 Mkt share ~ 11% (10% in 2006) Surya Osram Lighting - Luminaires Peers Mkt size ~ INR 25 bn Philips 4 Market share ~ 11% (3% in 2006) Bajaj Crompton Wipro Electrical Consumer Durable - Fans Peers Mkt size ~ INR 35 bn Crompton 3 Mkt share ~ 15% (6% in 2006) Usha Orient Source: Company 21
  • 22. New launches Small Domestic Appliances Peers New Mkt size ~ INR 50 bn R Recold Bajaj Recold Source: Company 22
  • 23. Domestic business: Segmental performance Switchgears Cables & Wires 12,000 40 20,000 15 (Rs mn) (%) (Rs mn) (%) 10,000 38 16,000 12 8,000 36 12,000 9 6,000 34 8,000 6 4,000 32 4,000 3 2,000 0 30 0 0 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 Sales Contribution (RHS) Sales Contribution (RHS) Lighting Electrical consumer durables 8,000 30 8,000 30 (Rs mn) (%) (Rs mn) (%) 25 6,000 6,000 25 20 4,000 4,000 20 15 2,000 2,000 15 10 0 5 0 10 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 Sales contribution % Sales contribution % Source: Company, ENAM Research 23
  • 24. Sylvania – Product range Fixtures (33% of revenue) Lamps (55% of revenue) Others (12% of revenue) Architectural Industrial/ Fluorescent Energy saving/ Incandescent Halogen High density / accent commercial (CFL/ LED) discharge (HID) Major peers Zumtobel Philips Philips Osram GE Source: Company 24
  • 25. ENAM Securities Pvt. Ltd. Axis House, C2, Wadia International Centre, P.B Marg, Worli, Mumbai 400 025, India. Tel:- Board +91-22 4325 2525; Dealing +91-22 2438 8861 - 69; Fax:- Research +91-22 4325 1110; Dealing +91-22 4325 3500 CONFLICT OF INTEREST DISCLOSURE We, at ENAM, are committed to providing the most honest and transparent advice to our clients. However, given the nature of the capital markets, from time to time we are faced with situations that could give rise to potential conflict of interest. In order to provide complete transparency to our clients, before we make any recommendations, we are committed to making a disclosure of our interest and any potential conflict IN ADVANCE so that the interests of our clients are safe- guarded at all times. In light of this policy, we have instituted what we believe to be the most comprehensive disclosure policy among leading investment banks/brokerages in the world so that our clients may make an informed judgment about our recommendations. The following disclosures are intended to keep you informed before you make any decision- in addition, we will be happy to provide information in response to specific queries that our clients may seek from us. Disclosure of interest statement (As of August 8, 2012) 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Firm ownership of the stock No 3. Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Investment Banking mandate No 5. Broking relationship No We are committed to providing completely independent and transparent recommendations to help our clients reach a better decision. This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice, and nothing in this document should be construed as an advice to buy or sell or solicitation to buy or sell the securities of companies referred to in this document. The intent of this document is not in recommendary nature Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors Enam Securities Private Limited has not independently verified all the information given in this document. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval Enam securities Private Limited, its affiliates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document This report has been prepared on the basis of information, which is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of ENAM Securities Private Limited. The views expressed are those of analyst and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. Neither this document nor any copy of it may be taken or transmitted into the United State (to U.S.Persons), Canada, or Japan or distributed, directly or indirectly, in the United States or Canada or distributed or redistributed in Japan or to any resident thereof. The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. Copyright in this document vests exclusively with ENAM Securities Private Limited. 25