The document discusses fixed income products and derivatives. It begins with an agenda covering key concepts like no-arbitrage pricing. It then examines various fixed income products, including zero coupon bonds, coupon bonds, forward rates, floating rate bonds, and interest rate swaps. It also discusses yield-to-maturity as the internal rate of return for a bond, assuming reinvestment at the same rate. Throughout, it emphasizes the principle of no-arbitrage pricing and how derivatives can be replicated and priced using a portfolio of basic assets.
Precautionary Savings and the Stock-Bond CovarianceEesti Pank
The document discusses the relationship between stock and bond returns and how their covariance varies over time. It presents several empirical findings, including that negative stock-bond covariance is associated with lower Treasury yields, wider corporate spreads, and negative subsequent returns on stocks and bonds. It then introduces a two-factor term structure model where the price of risk varies over time, which can generate time-varying stock-bond covariance as in the data. Simulation results from the model match several key empirical moments.
Zero coupon-yield-pure-discount-presentationAntonio Tapper
Zero-coupon securities - as it says on the tin - do not have a coupon attached
Interest is not 'added on'
Instead, at maturity, the investor receives the face value
Therefore, in order to receive a return, she must pay less than the face value
How much less can be calculated in one of two ways:
Yield or Pure Discount Rate
Financial Management 4th and 5th chaptersHassan Samoon
The document contains answers to questions about valuation of long-term securities. It discusses that the market value of a firm is its market price in an open market, and can be viewed as the higher of liquidation value or going-concern value. It also discusses that intrinsic value may differ from market value, and how bonds and preferred stocks are valued similarly as fixed-income securities using present value of cash flows. The document provides example calculations and explains concepts like effects of maturity on bond prices and stock valuation using dividend models.
This document discusses credit risk and methods for estimating default probabilities. It covers the following key points:
- Credit ratings agencies like S&P and Moody's provide ratings to indicate the creditworthiness of bonds from AAA to C. Investment grade bonds are BBB/Baa and above.
- Historical default data shows that for good initial ratings, default probabilities increase over time, while for poor ratings they decrease over time.
- Recovery rates are the price recovered after default, on average around 40-60% depending on default levels.
- Bond prices can be used to estimate default probabilities using spreads over risk-free rates and assuming the spread is due to default risk adjusted by recovery rates.
This document provides an overview of various credit default models, including:
- Merton's structural model, which uses Black-Scholes option pricing theory to estimate probability of default.
- Extensions to Merton's model, including the KMV model which maps "distance to default" to historical default rates.
- Ratings-based models that use credit rating migration probabilities provided by rating agencies.
- Multivariate factor models that model default dependence between firms using common factors like the economy.
The document discusses key aspects and assumptions of these different modeling approaches.
This document discusses various concepts related to the valuation of long-term securities such as bonds, preferred stock, and common stock. It begins by defining different concepts of value such as liquidation value, going-concern value, book value, market value, and intrinsic value. It then covers the valuation of different types of bonds including perpetual bonds, coupon bonds, zero-coupon bonds, and the adjustments needed for semiannual compounding. The valuation of preferred stock is presented as a perpetuity. Common stock valuation is discussed using the dividend valuation model and its variations such as the constant growth model, zero growth model, and growth phases model. Examples are provided to illustrate the application of these valuation models.
1. The document discusses the concepts of time value of money, interest rates, and different types of interest including simple and compound interest.
2. It provides formulas for calculating future value and present value using simple and compound interest, and examples of applying these formulas.
3. The document also covers annuities, explaining the differences between ordinary annuities and annuities due. It provides formulas and examples for calculating future and present value of both types of annuities.
Precautionary Savings and the Stock-Bond CovarianceEesti Pank
The document discusses the relationship between stock and bond returns and how their covariance varies over time. It presents several empirical findings, including that negative stock-bond covariance is associated with lower Treasury yields, wider corporate spreads, and negative subsequent returns on stocks and bonds. It then introduces a two-factor term structure model where the price of risk varies over time, which can generate time-varying stock-bond covariance as in the data. Simulation results from the model match several key empirical moments.
Zero coupon-yield-pure-discount-presentationAntonio Tapper
Zero-coupon securities - as it says on the tin - do not have a coupon attached
Interest is not 'added on'
Instead, at maturity, the investor receives the face value
Therefore, in order to receive a return, she must pay less than the face value
How much less can be calculated in one of two ways:
Yield or Pure Discount Rate
Financial Management 4th and 5th chaptersHassan Samoon
The document contains answers to questions about valuation of long-term securities. It discusses that the market value of a firm is its market price in an open market, and can be viewed as the higher of liquidation value or going-concern value. It also discusses that intrinsic value may differ from market value, and how bonds and preferred stocks are valued similarly as fixed-income securities using present value of cash flows. The document provides example calculations and explains concepts like effects of maturity on bond prices and stock valuation using dividend models.
This document discusses credit risk and methods for estimating default probabilities. It covers the following key points:
- Credit ratings agencies like S&P and Moody's provide ratings to indicate the creditworthiness of bonds from AAA to C. Investment grade bonds are BBB/Baa and above.
- Historical default data shows that for good initial ratings, default probabilities increase over time, while for poor ratings they decrease over time.
- Recovery rates are the price recovered after default, on average around 40-60% depending on default levels.
- Bond prices can be used to estimate default probabilities using spreads over risk-free rates and assuming the spread is due to default risk adjusted by recovery rates.
This document provides an overview of various credit default models, including:
- Merton's structural model, which uses Black-Scholes option pricing theory to estimate probability of default.
- Extensions to Merton's model, including the KMV model which maps "distance to default" to historical default rates.
- Ratings-based models that use credit rating migration probabilities provided by rating agencies.
- Multivariate factor models that model default dependence between firms using common factors like the economy.
The document discusses key aspects and assumptions of these different modeling approaches.
This document discusses various concepts related to the valuation of long-term securities such as bonds, preferred stock, and common stock. It begins by defining different concepts of value such as liquidation value, going-concern value, book value, market value, and intrinsic value. It then covers the valuation of different types of bonds including perpetual bonds, coupon bonds, zero-coupon bonds, and the adjustments needed for semiannual compounding. The valuation of preferred stock is presented as a perpetuity. Common stock valuation is discussed using the dividend valuation model and its variations such as the constant growth model, zero growth model, and growth phases model. Examples are provided to illustrate the application of these valuation models.
1. The document discusses the concepts of time value of money, interest rates, and different types of interest including simple and compound interest.
2. It provides formulas for calculating future value and present value using simple and compound interest, and examples of applying these formulas.
3. The document also covers annuities, explaining the differences between ordinary annuities and annuities due. It provides formulas and examples for calculating future and present value of both types of annuities.
This document provides an overview of bond valuation and the structure of interest rates. It defines key bond concepts like yield to maturity, effective annual yield, and bond price calculation. It also discusses how bond prices are affected by interest rate changes and risk characteristics like default risk, call provisions, and term to maturity. The shape of the yield curve is determined by the real interest rate, expected inflation, and interest rate risk premium.
The Quantification of Loan RestructuringJohn Kelly
This document provides an introduction to quantification tools for loan restructuring. It discusses topics such as the CAMPARI framework for credit analysis, the 5 Cs and 5 variables used to analyze loans, and how compounding interest, risk, and term extensions impact the total cost of credit. Quantitative examples are provided to illustrate concepts like how increasing the loan term reduces monthly payments but increases the total interest paid over the life of the loan.
This document summarizes methods for valuing bonds and stocks. It discusses how to value bonds based on their coupon payments and maturity date by discounting expected cash flows. It also explains models for valuing stocks based on expected future dividends, including the dividend discount model for zero, constant, and differential growth. Key parameters like growth rates and discount rates are discussed. Methods include using the dividend discount model or separating value into a "cash cow" portion and growth opportunities.
This document discusses the time value of money concepts of simple and compound interest, present and future value, and annuities. It provides formulas and examples for calculating future and present value of single deposits using tables or calculators. It also covers calculating the future value of annuities and using annuity tables. Key concepts covered include compound interest earning interest on interest, and the higher growth it provides over time compared to simple interest.
This document provides an overview of key concepts in corporate finance and time value of money, including future and present value calculations, compounding and discounting of cash flows, perpetuities, and annuities. It includes examples and practice problems related to time value of money concepts like interest rates, inflation, and delayed cash flows. The document is from a college course on financial management and covers topics that will be addressed in weeks 2 and 3 of the course.
Interest Rates and Bond Evaluation by Junaid ChohanJunaid Ashraf
This chapter discusses interest rates and bond valuation. It covers key bond concepts such as bond features, types, and valuation. Bond values fluctuate due to changing interest rates, as higher rates lower bond prices. Bond ratings indicate credit risk, with higher-rated bonds having lower yields. Inflation impacts nominal interest rates through the Fisher effect. The term structure of interest rates refers to the relationship between maturity and yields, with the yield curve normally upward sloping. Required bond returns depend on characteristics like risk, tax treatment, liquidity, and call provisions.
This document provides an overview of bonds and bond valuation. It defines bonds as debt instruments issued by corporations or governments to borrow money. An example is provided of a corporate bond issued by Coca-Cola, including details of the coupon rate, face value, and coupon payments. The document discusses how to value bonds using present value techniques and discounting at the yield to maturity. It also covers bond features such as call provisions and bond ratings. Bond markets, inflation, and interest rates are discussed as well, including the relationship between nominal and real interest rates as defined by the Fisher effect.
The Value of Money - problems and solutionsHassan Samoon
The document discusses the time value of money concepts. It provides explanations and examples of simple and compound interest, present and future value calculations, and annuities. It also includes sample problems and solutions demonstrating time value of money applications. Key concepts covered are interest rates, compounding periods, present and future value formulas, and using tables to determine interest factors for calculations.
The document discusses value at risk (VAR) calculations for various portfolio scenarios. It provides examples of calculating 1-day, 10-day and annual VAR using standard deviations and confidence levels. It also demonstrates how to calculate VAR for combined portfolios accounting for correlations between assets. VAR is calculated for portfolios containing stocks, bonds, currencies and other financial instruments.
This document provides an overview of key concepts in bond valuation, equity valuation, and financial mathematics. It defines geometric sequences and series, and explains how to calculate the present value of perpetuities, annuities, growing perpetuities, and delayed perpetuities. It also provides examples of calculating present values for specific financial scenarios.
1. The document discusses various financial concepts including the importance of financial intelligence, passive income, income statements, balance sheets, and different approaches to valuing stocks.
2. It provides examples of using financial functions in spreadsheets to calculate things like present and future value, interest rates, and payments for investments and loans.
3. The risks and returns of different asset classes are examined, including how to calculate portfolio risk and the security market line to determine required rates of return for stocks.
The document discusses decision trees, sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis, and break-even analysis as tools for analyzing net present value calculations. It provides an example of using a decision tree to evaluate whether a pharmaceutical company should invest in testing and developing a potential new drug. Sensitivity analysis on the example shows NPV is highly sensitive to changes in revenue. Scenario analysis and break-even analysis are also discussed as ways to examine variability in forecasts.
A bond is a tradable debt instrument that represents a loan made by an investor to an issuer. Bonds pay periodic interest payments and return the principal at maturity. Bonds offer safety, reliable income, potential for capital gains, and tax advantages compared to stocks. Adding bonds to a stock portfolio can lower risk through diversification while lowering expected returns. The value of a bond is determined by its coupon rate, face value, time to maturity, and required yield.
The document describes several types of loans:
- Pure discount loans where the borrower receives funds upfront and repays the full amount later.
- Interest-only loans where the borrower makes periodic interest payments and repays the principal at maturity.
- Constant payment loans where the borrower makes equal monthly payments of principal and interest over the loan term to fully repay the loan.
It also discusses alternative mortgage instruments such as graduated payment mortgages, price level adjusted mortgages, adjustable rate mortgages, and reverse annuity mortgages.
This document provides an overview of interest rates, bond valuation, and bond features. It discusses how interest rates are determined by the relationship between the supply and demand of funds. It also explains how nominal interest rates are comprised of expected inflation and risk premiums. The document covers bond valuation techniques, such as using the yield-to-maturity approach. Additionally, it describes various bond characteristics like call provisions, conversion features, and indentures.
The 30-year bond has more interest rate risk.
37
Interest Rate Risk
- Longer-term bonds have greater interest rate risk than
shorter-term bonds because their prices are more
sensitive to changes in interest rates.
- When interest rates rise, the price of an existing bond
falls more for longer-term bonds than for shorter-term
bonds.
- When interest rates fall, the price of an existing bond
rises more for longer-term bonds than for shorter-term
bonds.
- Therefore, longer-term bonds have greater price volatility
and interest rate risk.
38
Default Risk
- Default risk is the risk that the issuer will not repay the
Leveraged and inverse ETFs seek a daily return equal to a multiple of an index' return, an objective that requires continuous portfolio rebalancing. The resulting trading costs create a tradeoff between tracking error, which controls the short-term correlation with the index, and excess return (or tracking difference) -- the long-term deviation from the levered index' performance. With proportional trading costs, the optimal replication policy is robust to the index' dynamics. A summary of a fund's performance is the \emph{implied spread}, equal to the product of tracking error and excess return, rescaled for leverage and average volatility. The implies spread is insensitive to the benchmark's risk premium, and offers a tool to compare the performance of funds on the same benchmark, but with different multiples and tracking errors.
This one sentence document contains a name, date, and string of characters that appear to be random. It provides very little information to summarize in 3 sentences or less.
1) O documento relata a experiência de um estudante que realizou entrevistas com 5 pessoas na Praça do Relógio para um trabalho da faculdade sobre saúde e sociedade.
2) O estudante ficou surpreso ao ouvir misturas de histórias de superação e dificuldades impostas pelas condições de vida dos entrevistados.
3) Aprendeu que as pessoas não são o que aparentam e passou a ter mais compreensão e evitar pré-julgamentos após conhecer um pouco da história de cada um.
Un resumen busca resaltar los elementos esenciales de un texto, eliminando detalles secundarios. Debe presentar de forma condensada y objetiva las ideas principales del documento original en uno o dos párrafos o en una o dos oraciones. Al resumir, no se deben incluir juicios personales sino sólo los hechos del texto, siguiendo los pasos de leer, subrayar ideas clave, tomar notas, ordenar la información y redactar de manera clara y fiel al contenido original.
This document provides an overview of bond valuation and the structure of interest rates. It defines key bond concepts like yield to maturity, effective annual yield, and bond price calculation. It also discusses how bond prices are affected by interest rate changes and risk characteristics like default risk, call provisions, and term to maturity. The shape of the yield curve is determined by the real interest rate, expected inflation, and interest rate risk premium.
The Quantification of Loan RestructuringJohn Kelly
This document provides an introduction to quantification tools for loan restructuring. It discusses topics such as the CAMPARI framework for credit analysis, the 5 Cs and 5 variables used to analyze loans, and how compounding interest, risk, and term extensions impact the total cost of credit. Quantitative examples are provided to illustrate concepts like how increasing the loan term reduces monthly payments but increases the total interest paid over the life of the loan.
This document summarizes methods for valuing bonds and stocks. It discusses how to value bonds based on their coupon payments and maturity date by discounting expected cash flows. It also explains models for valuing stocks based on expected future dividends, including the dividend discount model for zero, constant, and differential growth. Key parameters like growth rates and discount rates are discussed. Methods include using the dividend discount model or separating value into a "cash cow" portion and growth opportunities.
This document discusses the time value of money concepts of simple and compound interest, present and future value, and annuities. It provides formulas and examples for calculating future and present value of single deposits using tables or calculators. It also covers calculating the future value of annuities and using annuity tables. Key concepts covered include compound interest earning interest on interest, and the higher growth it provides over time compared to simple interest.
This document provides an overview of key concepts in corporate finance and time value of money, including future and present value calculations, compounding and discounting of cash flows, perpetuities, and annuities. It includes examples and practice problems related to time value of money concepts like interest rates, inflation, and delayed cash flows. The document is from a college course on financial management and covers topics that will be addressed in weeks 2 and 3 of the course.
Interest Rates and Bond Evaluation by Junaid ChohanJunaid Ashraf
This chapter discusses interest rates and bond valuation. It covers key bond concepts such as bond features, types, and valuation. Bond values fluctuate due to changing interest rates, as higher rates lower bond prices. Bond ratings indicate credit risk, with higher-rated bonds having lower yields. Inflation impacts nominal interest rates through the Fisher effect. The term structure of interest rates refers to the relationship between maturity and yields, with the yield curve normally upward sloping. Required bond returns depend on characteristics like risk, tax treatment, liquidity, and call provisions.
This document provides an overview of bonds and bond valuation. It defines bonds as debt instruments issued by corporations or governments to borrow money. An example is provided of a corporate bond issued by Coca-Cola, including details of the coupon rate, face value, and coupon payments. The document discusses how to value bonds using present value techniques and discounting at the yield to maturity. It also covers bond features such as call provisions and bond ratings. Bond markets, inflation, and interest rates are discussed as well, including the relationship between nominal and real interest rates as defined by the Fisher effect.
The Value of Money - problems and solutionsHassan Samoon
The document discusses the time value of money concepts. It provides explanations and examples of simple and compound interest, present and future value calculations, and annuities. It also includes sample problems and solutions demonstrating time value of money applications. Key concepts covered are interest rates, compounding periods, present and future value formulas, and using tables to determine interest factors for calculations.
The document discusses value at risk (VAR) calculations for various portfolio scenarios. It provides examples of calculating 1-day, 10-day and annual VAR using standard deviations and confidence levels. It also demonstrates how to calculate VAR for combined portfolios accounting for correlations between assets. VAR is calculated for portfolios containing stocks, bonds, currencies and other financial instruments.
This document provides an overview of key concepts in bond valuation, equity valuation, and financial mathematics. It defines geometric sequences and series, and explains how to calculate the present value of perpetuities, annuities, growing perpetuities, and delayed perpetuities. It also provides examples of calculating present values for specific financial scenarios.
1. The document discusses various financial concepts including the importance of financial intelligence, passive income, income statements, balance sheets, and different approaches to valuing stocks.
2. It provides examples of using financial functions in spreadsheets to calculate things like present and future value, interest rates, and payments for investments and loans.
3. The risks and returns of different asset classes are examined, including how to calculate portfolio risk and the security market line to determine required rates of return for stocks.
The document discusses decision trees, sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis, and break-even analysis as tools for analyzing net present value calculations. It provides an example of using a decision tree to evaluate whether a pharmaceutical company should invest in testing and developing a potential new drug. Sensitivity analysis on the example shows NPV is highly sensitive to changes in revenue. Scenario analysis and break-even analysis are also discussed as ways to examine variability in forecasts.
A bond is a tradable debt instrument that represents a loan made by an investor to an issuer. Bonds pay periodic interest payments and return the principal at maturity. Bonds offer safety, reliable income, potential for capital gains, and tax advantages compared to stocks. Adding bonds to a stock portfolio can lower risk through diversification while lowering expected returns. The value of a bond is determined by its coupon rate, face value, time to maturity, and required yield.
The document describes several types of loans:
- Pure discount loans where the borrower receives funds upfront and repays the full amount later.
- Interest-only loans where the borrower makes periodic interest payments and repays the principal at maturity.
- Constant payment loans where the borrower makes equal monthly payments of principal and interest over the loan term to fully repay the loan.
It also discusses alternative mortgage instruments such as graduated payment mortgages, price level adjusted mortgages, adjustable rate mortgages, and reverse annuity mortgages.
This document provides an overview of interest rates, bond valuation, and bond features. It discusses how interest rates are determined by the relationship between the supply and demand of funds. It also explains how nominal interest rates are comprised of expected inflation and risk premiums. The document covers bond valuation techniques, such as using the yield-to-maturity approach. Additionally, it describes various bond characteristics like call provisions, conversion features, and indentures.
The 30-year bond has more interest rate risk.
37
Interest Rate Risk
- Longer-term bonds have greater interest rate risk than
shorter-term bonds because their prices are more
sensitive to changes in interest rates.
- When interest rates rise, the price of an existing bond
falls more for longer-term bonds than for shorter-term
bonds.
- When interest rates fall, the price of an existing bond
rises more for longer-term bonds than for shorter-term
bonds.
- Therefore, longer-term bonds have greater price volatility
and interest rate risk.
38
Default Risk
- Default risk is the risk that the issuer will not repay the
Leveraged and inverse ETFs seek a daily return equal to a multiple of an index' return, an objective that requires continuous portfolio rebalancing. The resulting trading costs create a tradeoff between tracking error, which controls the short-term correlation with the index, and excess return (or tracking difference) -- the long-term deviation from the levered index' performance. With proportional trading costs, the optimal replication policy is robust to the index' dynamics. A summary of a fund's performance is the \emph{implied spread}, equal to the product of tracking error and excess return, rescaled for leverage and average volatility. The implies spread is insensitive to the benchmark's risk premium, and offers a tool to compare the performance of funds on the same benchmark, but with different multiples and tracking errors.
This one sentence document contains a name, date, and string of characters that appear to be random. It provides very little information to summarize in 3 sentences or less.
1) O documento relata a experiência de um estudante que realizou entrevistas com 5 pessoas na Praça do Relógio para um trabalho da faculdade sobre saúde e sociedade.
2) O estudante ficou surpreso ao ouvir misturas de histórias de superação e dificuldades impostas pelas condições de vida dos entrevistados.
3) Aprendeu que as pessoas não são o que aparentam e passou a ter mais compreensão e evitar pré-julgamentos após conhecer um pouco da história de cada um.
Un resumen busca resaltar los elementos esenciales de un texto, eliminando detalles secundarios. Debe presentar de forma condensada y objetiva las ideas principales del documento original en uno o dos párrafos o en una o dos oraciones. Al resumir, no se deben incluir juicios personales sino sólo los hechos del texto, siguiendo los pasos de leer, subrayar ideas clave, tomar notas, ordenar la información y redactar de manera clara y fiel al contenido original.
Discover business opportunities in this platform we offer.
Découvrez des offres qui vous sont offerts
PRESENTATION
KOMUNIK, communication structure operating in several business areas including:
• MARKETING
• THE BUSINESS
• SALE AND PURCHASE
• INFORMATION
• SERVICE DELIVERY
• REPRESENTATION and many other things ...
Offers everything you need to develop your business, you know and even represent big brands of clothes, perfumeries, of telephony and other goods.
We'll pick up where you can not please research to maximize your chance of one day becoming a successful businessman, a recognized artist or a person immune from some requirements whatsoever.
Please visit our blog.
http://unikomunik.blogspot.com/
Komunikunik@gmail.com
Dokumen tersebut merupakan indeks pelaksanaan sasaran kerja tahunan bagi unit ICT Pejabat Pelajaran Daerah Manjung. Ia mencatat pelaksanaan tiga sasaran strategi membangun dan meningkatkan kualiti guru selama tiga suku tahun pertama tahun 2011, dengan pencapaian sebanyak 2 daripada 3 sasaran yang ditetapkan atau peratusan pelaksanaan sebanyak 33.33%.
This certificate certifies that Katherine M. Lausted is a National Certified Guardian as of November 30, 2016 as determined by the Center for Guardianship Certification. The certificate was issued by the Center for Guardianship Certification and acknowledges Katherine M. Lausted's certification.
Este documento describe una empresa michoacana llamada FRULIDER que se dedica al procesamiento de limón. FRULIDER fue fundada en 1977 en Apatzingán, Michoacán, que es el principal productor de limón a nivel mundial. La empresa tiene infraestructura para el procesamiento de limón, canales de distribución y una huerta que le provee la materia prima. Procesa el limón para producir aceite esencial, jugos y otros derivados que vende en el mercado interno y externo.
1) The document introduces multi-period optimization, where consumers maximize utility over multiple time periods rather than just one. Consumers can borrow and lend between periods.
2) Basic assumptions include the availability of one-period bonds for borrowing and lending, with interest rate i. Consumers maximize a multi-period utility function subject to their intertemporal budget constraint.
3) The consumer's rate of time preference η between any two periods should equal the market interest rate ε between those periods for an optimal consumption plan. If η is less than ε, the consumer will borrow, and vice versa if η is greater than ε.
This document provides an outline for an advanced corporate finance course. It includes:
- An introduction by Professor Kim Oosterlinck and contact information.
- A course outline covering theory, exercises, textbooks, prerequisites and exam information.
- Topics to be covered including moving from accounting to cash flows, capital structure, project valuation, financial options, and mergers and acquisitions.
- A review of key concepts in financial valuation such as net present value, internal rate of return, and bond and stock valuation.
Pricing options by mathematics and probabilityVTrnMinh3
The document provides an overview of pricing options using mathematical models. It outlines topics that will be covered, including basic securities like stocks and bonds, derivative securities like options, deterministic pricing, and stochastic pricing models like binomial trees and the Black-Scholes formula. The document then provides examples of how to calculate prices and profits for various option positions like long and short calls, puts, spreads, and combinations. It defines key terms and shows payoffs and profits for different underlying asset prices at option expiration.
1. The document discusses net present value and the time value of money. It introduces concepts like future value, present value, discount rates, and compounding interest.
2. Examples are provided to illustrate how to calculate the net present value of projects using future and present cash flows. A positive net present value indicates the project should be accepted.
3. The concepts of perpetuities, annuities, and multiperiod cash flows are explained. Consumer preferences and budget constraints over time are also covered.
This document discusses lessons learned from capital market history. It finds that risky assets have historically earned a higher average return, known as a risk premium, compared to risk-free assets like Treasury bills. It also shows that higher risk investments have greater variability of returns, with potential for both higher gains and losses. The document contrasts arithmetic and geometric averages, noting geometric averages better account for compounding effects. Finally, it introduces the concept of market efficiency, where security prices quickly reflect all available public information.
This document discusses the time value of money and compound interest. It introduces simple and compound interest, and provides formulas for calculating both. Compound interest allows interest to earn interest over time, providing higher returns compared to simple interest. The time value of money is important when evaluating financial decisions involving cash flows over different time periods. Interest rates are used to quantify the time value of money and allow present and future cash flows to be compared. Examples are provided to demonstrate calculating interest using simple and compound formulas.
Building Institutional Capacity in Thailand to Design and Implement Climate P...UNDP Climate
23-25 November 2016, Thailand - A centerpiece of the Integrating Agriculture in National Adaptation Plans Programme (NAP-Ag) in Thailand is its support to develop a new five-year Strategy on Climate Change in Agriculture (2017-2021). This is spearheaded by the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (MOAC) and its Office of Agriculture Economics (OAE). The strategy was unveiled after a series of meetings by a Technical Working Group at a three-day workshop held on 23-25 November 2016 in Bangkok, organized by UNDP. Over 60 participants from each MOAC line department and 10 participants from academia and civil society were briefed by the Office of the Natural Resources and Environmental Policy and Planning (ONEP) and GIZ on the status of the National Adaption Plan (NAP) and learned how NAP-Ag programme efforts could support a broader NAP process and align with the Sector Plan. The new strategy focuses on improving evidence and data for informing policy choices, building the capacity of farmers and agri-businesses to adapt, promoting low-carbon development and productivity growth in the sector, and building institutional and managerial capacities to cope with climate change impacts.
Bad Beta, Good Beta
By John Y. Campbell And Tuomo Vuolteenaho
Presentation by Michael-Paul James
Cash flow and discount rate betas estimates stock market risk factors
more efficiently than CAPM over time.
○ Cash flow news
■ Stock returns covariance with cash flows news
○ Discount rate news
■ Stock returns covariance with discount rate news
● “Bad” cash flow beta (risk) demands higher premiums than “good”
discount rate beta (risk).
● Value and small stocks have higher cash flow betas than growth and
large stocks on average.
● High average returns on value and small stocks are appropriate
compensation for risk, not an unrealized benefit to ownership.
● Overweighting small and value stocks benefit low risk aversion equity
investors
● Underweighting small and value stocks benefit high risk aversion
equity investors
● Model offers strong explanatory power in the cross section of asset
returns with theoretical values
● ICAPM outperforms the CAPM in empirical research
7_Analysing and Interpreting the Yield Curve.pptMurat Öztürkmen
The document discusses analysing and interpreting the yield curve. It covers the importance of the yield curve, constructing the curve from discount functions, theories like the expectations hypothesis and liquidity preference theory, the formal relationship between spot and forward rates, interpreting the shape of the curve, and fitting the curve from market data. Specifically, it notes the challenges of fitting the curve given a lack of liquid market data inputs and impact of bid-offer spreads, and recommends using a non-parametric interpolation method like the Svensson model to produce a smoother forward curve.
Return Decomposition
By Long Chen and Xinlei Zhao
Presentation by Michael-Paul James
Directly modeling discount rate news and backing out cash flow news
adds residual news to the latter
○ The method has led to erroneous conclusions:
■ Larger relative DR variance
■ Value stocks earn higher returns due to higher βCF
■ βCF is more important than total βtotal
○ DR news cannot be accurately estimated (low predictive power)
and backed out CF news inherits large misspecification error of DR
○ Modeled Treasury bonds reveals higher CF variance with no real CF
risk
○ Minor changes in predictive variables produce opposite results
Directly modeling cash flow news, discount rate news, and residual
○ Value firms have both lower modeled CF betas and DR betas, but
higher residual betas, indicating that the results in the current
literature are driven by the residual news.
STUDENTS Andres Hoyos Joy Hwang Alicia Klassanoff L.docxAASTHA76
STUDENTS:
Andres Hoyos Joy Hwang Alicia Klassanoff Ljubomir Petrovic
Bronco Vuskovich Maira Alejandra Soto Alice Benatar
ASSIGNMENT 2
Problem 1:
There are three major business organization forms from start-up to a major corporation. What are
these three business organization forms? What are advantages and disadvantages for each
organization form?
Advantages and Disadvantages of Business Organizations
Easy to
create
Easy to
raise
capital
Taxes
paid once
as
personal
income
Limited
Liability
Unlimited
Life
Easy to
transfer
Ownership
Management
by the
owners
Easy to
make
decisions
Sole
Proprietorship
Partnership
Corporation
100% possible
50% possible
Difficult or impossible
Problem 2:
Based on the chart below, answer the following two questions.
1. If the value of the firm is 10 million, and $F is 12 million, how much will be the payoff to debt
holders and how much will be the payoff to shareholders?
Debt Holders: $ 10 million
Shareholders: $ 0
2. If the value of the firm is 25 million, and $F is 12 million, how much will be the payoff to debt
holders and how much will be the payoff to shareholders?
Debt Holders: $ 12 million
Shareholders: $ 13 million
Problem 3:
Assume that you are nearing graduation and have applied for a job with a local bank. As part of
the bank's evaluation process, you have been asked to take an examination that covers several
financial analysis techniques. The first section of the test addresses discounted cash flow
analysis. See how you would do by answering the following questions.
a. Draw time lines for (1) a $100 lump sum cash flow at the end of Year 2, and (2) an uneven
cash flow stream of -$50, $100, $75, and $50 at the end of Years 0 through 3.
b. What's the future value of an initial $100 after 3 years if it is invested in an account paying
10% annual interest and compounded annually? How about if the interest is compounded
monthly, daily or hourly?
Compounded
Annually
Compounded
Monthly
Compounded Daily Compounded Hourly
Rate 𝑟 = 0.1 𝑟 =
0.1
12
= 0.0083 𝑟 =
0.1
365
= 0.00027 𝑟 =
0.1
365 × 24
= 0.000011
Period 𝑛 = 3 𝑛 = 3 × 36 𝑛 = 3 × 365 = 1095 𝑛 = 3 × 365 × 24 = 26280
𝑭𝑽 = 𝑷𝑽 × (𝟏 + 𝒓)𝒏
𝐹𝑉 = 100 × (1 + 0.1)3
𝐹𝑉 = 100 × 0.0083)36
𝐹𝑉 = 100 × (1 +
0.1
0.00027
)1095
𝐹𝑉 = 100 × (1 +
0.1
0.000011
)26280
FUTURE
VALUE
$133.10 $134.82 $134.98 $134.99
c. What is the present value of $100 to be received in 3 years if the annual interest rate is
10% and compounded annually? How about if the interest is compounded monthly, daily
or hourly?
Compounded
Annually
Compounded
Monthly
Compounded Daily Compounded Hourly
Rate 𝑟 = 0.1 𝑟 =
0.1
12
= 0.0083 𝑟 =
0.1
365
= 0.00027 𝑟 =
0.1
365 × 24
= 0.000011
Period 𝑛 = 3 𝑛 = 3 × 36 𝑛 = 3 × 365 = 1095 𝑛 = 3 × 365 × 24 = 2
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http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2755893
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3. 3
Absolute Pricing
• Given some asset prices,
what can we say about
some other securities?
(a.k.a derivatives)
• E.g.: Stocks of Palm v 3Com
• Derivative pricing, CAPM
(in practice)
• Larry Summers: “Ketchup
economics”
„No Free Lunch “
Return commensurate with Risk
„No Happy Meal“
Derivative price is replication cost
ASSET PRICING
• How is asset price linked to
fundamental, macroeconomic
sources of risk?
• E.g.: level of stock market vis-à-
vis economic growth
• CAPM (in theory), consumption
based models
Relative Pricing
The focus of the next two lectures is on relative pricing
5. 5
HAPPY MEAL PRICING
Big Mac
6.30 CHF
Coke
3.30 CHF
French Fries
3.30 CHF
Happy Meal
10.90 CHF To be answered next:
• Shouldn‘t
everybody buy
happy meals and
sell the pieces?
• Why is there no
arbitrage at
McDonalds?
• Why should there
be arbitrage in
financial
markets?
2 CHF
Rebate
A Happy Meal is cheaper than the sum of its components
6. 6
Costs nothing
Some Chance
of Profit
ARBITRAGE OPPORTUNITY
Criteria
Never makes a loss
No investment outlays
Zero price portfolio, usually involving short
(borrowing) and long (lending) positions
No future capital requirements
Losses in one leg of portfolio must always
be offset by gains on other leg
At least in some circumstances, net profits
accrue. (Net profits can vary across states)
Here is the definition of an arbitrage opportunity ...
7. 7
NO ARBITRAGE
No Equilibrium with
Arbitrage Opportunities
Perfect Markets:
• No trading costs
• No counterparty risk
• Everybody can buy
(long) or sell (short)
any asset in any
quantity
More better than less:
• Everybody would want
to buy into arbitrage
opportunity, nobody
should want to sell
• Unlimited demand at
zero supply
Pricing is only relative:
• For example, 4%
borrowing and 5%
lending:
• No clue whether
borrowing too low,
lending too high or
both
Arbitrage can occur,
but only in limited
scale for limited time:
Off equilibrium!
No arbitrage (NA) is a necessary, but not sufficient condition for
equilibrium
8. 8
EXAMPLES OF ARBITRAGE
Costless No Loss
Profit
maybe Arbitragesure
Lottery Ticket
- for free
- for 1 cent
Borrowing at 2% and
lending at 4%
Borrowing JPY at 1% and
lending USD at 4%
-
... and here are some examples
9. 9
McDonalds Finance
FOOD RETAIL V WHOLESALE FINANCE
Coke, Burger, Fries
Prices of Coke, Burger Fries
A meal
Happy Meal
You can only buy from
McDonalds, no resale
Primitive assets
(often indirect: Coke, Coke &
Burger, Coke & Burger & Fries)
State prices
Complex security / portfolio
Arbitrage opportunity, since
meal should cost same as sum
of components
Investors can buy and sell
whatever quantity they want
BACKUP
Apart from terminology financial portfolios are much like meals
11. 11
OVERVIEW FI PRODUCTS
Zero Coupon Bond
Coupon Bond
Forward Rate
Floating Rate Bond
Interest Rate Swap
Today v a later date
Today v several later dates
Tomorrow v after tomorrow
Today v tomorrow
Long-term asset v short-term liability
Trade-OffProduct
We will look at the following products
12. 12
TALK THE TALK
• Bond Debtor‘s Promise to repay borrowed money at fixed
dates
• Principal Amount due (a.k.a. par value, notional). Here always
equal to one
• Maturity Time until last payment
• Duration Average time for all payments (see later)
• Coupon Intermediate payment, usually fixed percentage of
notional
• Zero bond Bond without coupon, only principal due (also: bullet)
• Yield Interest rate (see later: Yield-to-Maturity)
GLOSSARY
Some „jargon“is handy when talking about fixed income
13. 13
FIXED INCOME SETTING
Basic prices:
Interest rates
between now
and future
dates
Consider:
• Fixed amounts
due at fixed
dates
• No default
• „When, not
whether, will
payments
occur?“
5.55.55.455.45.35.25.14.954.754.5i(0,t)
Spot Rate Curve in % p.a.
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Take the term structure of interest rates as given
14. 14
Payoffs
COUPON BOND
A coupon bond has regular payments prior to maturity
time
-1
0
1
c
1+c
1 2 3 40
cc
A coupon bond holder receives multiple payments.
We focus first on the individual payments ...
15. 15
ZERO BOND
A bond without coupons
Single payment at maturity: principal (here equal unity)
PricingPayoffs
TERMSHEET
1
(0, )
[1 (0, )]T
B T
i T
=
+
Example
Notes
Yield a.k.a. „spot rate“,
„zero rate“
-1
0
1
1 2 3 40
time
1
2
(0,1) 1.045 0.96
(0,2) 1.0475 0.91
(0,3) 0.87
(0,4) 0.82
B
B
B
B
−
−
= =
= =
=
=
Zero bonds are the basic building blocks of fixed income pricing
16. 16
PricingPayoffs
TERMSHEET
Examples
COUPON BOND
A coupon bond has regular payments prior to maturity
1(0, , )
[1 (0, )]
T
t t
c
B T c
i t
== ∑
+
1
[1 (0, )]T
i T
+
+
time
-1
0
1
c
1+c
1 2 3 40
cc
(0,4,10%) 2.3B =
(0,4,0.5%) 1.02B =
A coupon bond is just a collection of zero bond payments
17. 17
COUPON BOND AT PAR
1
1 [1 (0, )]
[1 (0, )]
T
tT
t
i T
c i
i t
−
−
=
− +
= =
+∑
For which coupon, would the
bond trade at par?
Par Value
(=1)
(1 ) [1 (0, )] T
c i T −
+ +
( 1)
[1 (0, 1)] T
c i T − −
+ −
M
1
[1 (0,1)]c i −
+
= Bond price
+
+
+
Par bonds have a coupon equal to their yield-to-maturity
18. 18
PricingPayoffs
TERMSHEET
(0, )B t =
Examples
FORWARD RATES
An agreement today, to borrow money between t and T at rate f(0,t,T)
[1 (0, )]
(0, , ) 1
[1 (0, )]
T
T t
t
T t
i T
f t T
i t
−
−
+
= −
+
1
4 2
2
1.051
(0,2,4)
1.0475
f
⎛ ⎞
= ⎜ ⎟
⎝ ⎠
8.06%=
[1+f(0,2,4)]2
-1
0
1
1 t=2 3 T=40
time
B(0,2)
B(0,2)
(0, ) [1 (0, , )]T t
B T f t T −
+
Replicate with
long/short position
in zeros
Forward Rates lock in future conditions for borrowing and lending
19. 19
NotesPayoffs
CARRY TRADE
Example of a simple, zero-investment portfolio.
Borrow short-term and lend long-term with different maturities
• No initial capital,
zero price
• Effectively a forward
contract
• Risk of reinvestment/
repricing at T1
• Profitable if
• Or, if future spot rate
below today’s forward
2
2 1 2(1, )[1 (0, )]T
B T T i T− +
1
1[1 (0, )]T
i T> +
2 1 1 2(1, ) (0, , )i T T f T T− <
-1
0
1
1 T1=2 3 T2=40
time
[1+i(0,2)]2
[1+i(0,4)]4
BACKUP
The carry trade bets on differences between future spot rates
and today’s forward rates
20. 20
ZEROS AND FORWARDS BACKUP
1
11 (0, ) [1 (0, 1, )]T T
ti T f t t=+ = + −∏
1 (0, , )f t t n+ + =
No-Arbitrage implies that zero
rates are geometric averages
of forward rates
Likewise, forward rates are
geometric averages of forward
rates
1
1
0[1 (0, , 1)]n n
j f t j t j−
= + + + +∏
The math is simple: (0, )B T =
(0,2) (0,3) (0, )
(0,1)
(0,1) (0,2) (0, 1)
B B B T
B
B B B T −
K
What do forward rates tell
us about market
expectations of future
spot rates?
Do they say more than
current spot rates?
Multi-period zeros are like a sequence of forward contracts
21. 21
Payoffs
INTEREST RATE SWAP
Exchange of interest rate payments: fixed v floating. No exchange of principal
Interest rates calculated for „notional“ principal
time
-1
0
1
1 2 3 40
i(1,1)=? i(2,1)=?i(0,1) i(3,1)=?
ccc c
Swaps offset fixed versus variable payments. To understand
them better we will look at “floating rate bonds” first
22. 22
PricingPayoffs
TERMSHEET
Notes
FLOATING RATE BOND
Variable coupons.
Next coupon always set equal to then prevailing, one-period spot rate
(0, , ) 1B T float =
(0, , ) 1D T float =
• Effectively, a one-
period zero bond
• Implied “option” to
reinvest at future spot
rates worthless under
our wholesale
conditions
i(1,1)=? i(2,1)=?
time
-1
0
1
1 2 3 40
i(0,1)
1+i(3,1)=?
Payoff uncertain
But its PV at time 3 will
be equal to one for
sure! So at time 2 ...
Payments of a floater are determined one period in advance, but
unknown today
23. 23
PricingPayoffs
TERMSHEETINTEREST RATE SWAP
Exchange of interest rate payments: fixed v floating. No exchange of principal
Interest rates calculated for „notional“ principal
• A portfolio of coupon
bond (long) and floater
(short) with same
principal
• Here: “fixed receiver“,
opposite picture for
fixed payer
• Coupon such that initial
value is zero: Fixed-leg
is par bond!
1
1 [1 (0, )]
[1 (0, )]
T
tT
t
i T
c
i t
−
−
=
− +
=
+∑
Example
4y year swap-rate: 5.08%
time
-1
0
1
1 2 3 40
i(1,1)=? i(2,1)=?i(0,1) i(3,1)=?
ccc c
Swaps match a floater with a fixed coupon bond
24. 24
ALM WITH SWAPS
Bank
short term deposits &
long term loans
Fixed Payer Swap
Pay fixed and
receive floating
i(1,1)=?
1+i(2,1)=?
time
-1
0
1
1 2 3
i(0,1)
1+c
cc
c
i(1,1)=? i(2,1)=?
time
-1
0
1
1 2 3
i(0,1)
ccc
c
Swaps can simultaneously match the asset & liability profile of
bank‘s maturity risks. And against any move in the term structure!
25. 25
COMPASS TO NA PRICING
Basic Assets
• Collect Prices
• Study Payoffs
Derivative Price
• Equals
replication cost
• Asset prices
times asset
weights in
replication
If you cannot replicate:
Absolute pricing (or
more assets)
Replicate the derivative with
a portfolio of assets
When you get lost in applications, try following this little system
27. 27
YIELD-TO-MATURITY
Caveats
Like with any IRR ...
• TS usually not flat
• Yield-to-maturity is
complex average of
actual spot rates
• TS not constant,
reinvestment risk is
substantial
• Sensitive to size of
coupon
• Specific to each bond!
If the TS were flat and remained
flat, what would be the return to
bondholder if she reinvested all
coupons until maturity?
0 (1 ) 1
1
(0, , )
T tT
t
T
c i
i
B T c
−
=∑ + +
= −
1
1
(0, , )
(1 ) (1 )
T
t t T
c
B T c
i i
== +∑
+ +
If the TS were flat.
At which level would it
match the bond price?
A bond‘s Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is also known as Yield-to-
Maturity
28. 28
PRICE YIELD RELATIONSHIP
yield
price
current yield
current price
( )dB i
di
If the TS were flat and shifted just
a little bit, what will be
effect on bond price?
For small yield changes we can look at linear approximations to
price changes
29. 29
DURATION
Present
Values
time
What is the
average time
until all claims
are paid?
(... and let us
average with
present-value
weights)
1
(1 ) (1 )
(0, , )
(0, , ) (0, , )
t T
T
t
c i i
D T c t T
B T c B T c
− −
=
+ +
= +∑
1
[1 (0, )] [1 (0, )]
(0, , )
(0, , ) (0, , )
t T
T
teff
c i t i T
D T c t T
B T c B T c
− −
=
+ +
= +∑
To understand price sensitivity, duration is important.
It measures the center of gravity of the payoffs‘ present values
30. 30
DURATION OF LONG-TERM BONDS
Cash-Flow Present Values of Par-Bonds
1 10 20 30 40 50
time
Maturity: 10y
Coupon: 5.45%
Maturity: 30y
Coupon: 5.47%
Valuation using term structure example, spot rates beyond 10y equal 5.5%
Maturity: 50y
Coupon: 5.48%
Duration: 7.95 y
Duration: 15.30 y
Duration: 17.81 y
Compared to long term bonds, ultra-long-term bonds do not add
much duration
31. 31
PRICE SENSITIVITY AND DURATION
Note
• Higher duration, higher
yield risk
• Only for small changes
in yield-to-maturity and
parallel shifts in flat TS
• D/(1+i) a.k.a. “modified
Duration”
• Extensions
– Effective Duration
(uses actual spot
rates)
– Key Rate Duration
(moves of single
spot rate)
... The effect of yield change on
bond price is proportional to
duration!
( ) ( )
1
dB i B i
D
di i
= −
+
1
1
( )
(1 ) (1 )
T
t t T
c
B i
i i
== +∑
+ +
1
1
1
( )
(1 ) (1 )
T
t t T
c
D t T B i
i i
−
=
⎛ ⎞
= +∑⎜ ⎟
+ +⎝ ⎠
That is why duration is so useful: It is proportional to approximate
price changes when yield changes
32. 32
IMMUNIZATION
Problem
• How to protect bond portfolio’s
value in H periods, FH, against
changes in yield-to-maturity?
• Again: parallel shifts of flat TS
Solution:
• Construct portfolio such that
duration equals horizon H
( ) ( )(1 )H
HF i B i i= +
1( ) ( )
(1 ) ( ) (1 )H HHdF i dB i
H i B i i
di di
−
= + + +
( )
0HdF i
di
= H D=for
3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%
Future Values in 4.6 years
yield
D=4.6, T= 5, , C=4%
D=3.77, T= 4, C=4%
D=7.71, T= 9, C=4%
Portfolio duration should match the duration of your liabilities
33. 33
CONVEXITY
yield
price
current yield
current price
BACKUP
Note
• Convexity is “good”
since: lower price fall
if yield increases,
higher gain if yield
falls
• Convexity greater if
payoffs more
dispersed over time
2
2
( ) 1
( )
d B i
C
di B i
=
2
2 2
2
( ) 1 ( ) 1 ( ) 1
( ) ( )
( ) ( ) 2 (1 ) 2
B i dB i d B i D
di di di C di
B i B i di di i
∆ −⎛ ⎞ ⎛ ⎞
≈ + = +⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟ +⎝ ⎠⎝ ⎠
See de La Grandville chapters 7 & 8 for more
To improve upon the linear approximation, look at convexity
34. 34
BOND PORTFOLIOSBOND PORTFOLIOS
General Principle:
„Price everything as a bundle of
zero bonds“
• Zero bond prices B(t), B(0) = 1
• Payoffs: CF(t) (t=0 ... T)
• payoff‘s value-weight:
Portfolio Price and Duration:
( ) ( )
( )
CF t B t
w t
P
=
0
0
( ) ( )
( )
T
t
T
t
CF t B t
D t
P
t w t
=
=
= ∑
= ∑
Applied to Bond Portfolio:
• Portfolio with bonds i = 1... N
• Bonds price Pi , quantities qi ,
Durations Di and payoffs CFi(t)
• value-weights
• Cash Flows
Portfolio Price and Duration:
i i
i
q P
w
P
=
1( ) ( )N
i i iCF t q CF t== ∑
0 ( ) ( )T
tP CF t B t== ∑ 0 1
0 1
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
T N
t i i i
T N
t i i
P q CF t B t
CF t B t w P
= =
= =
= ∑ ∑
= =∑ ∑
1
N
i i iD w D== ∑
Duration: only for non-zero price and
when yield-to-maturities not different
BACKUP
It is straightforward to extend the previous tools to bond portfolios
35. 35
CAVEAT
The previous section on immunization, duration and
convexity looked at changes in yield-to-maturity
This is best understood for parallel shifts with flat term
structures
When you aggregate in a portfolio, all bonds should
thus have the same yield
These techniques are common and within the above
limits useful. But be careful when looking at bonds with
different yield-to-maturity
To think about differences in yields and non-parallel
shifts, look at effective duration and key rate durations
YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED ;-)
Always remember the assumptions behind simple analysis
with yield / duration / convexity
37. 37
CORPORATE BOND
Zero bond issue from a risky business with limited liability
is not default free
Need to think about issuer‘s ability to repay, in other words:
need to look at firm‘s asset value at bond‘s maturity
Payoff
Firm Assets
at Maturity
Debt /
Bond‘s face value
Debt /
Bond‘s
face
value
Partial
Default
This payoff is
resembles a
„Put Option“
Once we want to consider the default risk of corporate bonds, we
are in the world of options, that is our next topic
38. 38
STOCK AND BOND
Payoffs
ST
ST
Default-free Bond
(w/notional X)
Henceforth: Suppose the stock pays no dividend until T
X·R
Now we look at a single point in time, „T“, but across different states
(the various prices of the underlying stock ST)
39. 39
FORWARD PRICE OF STOCK
Payoffs
ST
ST
Bond w/notional St
Forward
Forward on stock is
agreement to buy
stock at T
Price is determined
now, such that current
value of Fwd is zero
F=St R
Effectively a liquidity
transformation: Long
Stock (now!) financed
with short bond
St·R
St·R
A static strategy of stock and bond replicates a forward contract
on the stock
40. 40
Forward Futures
FORWARD VERSUS FUTURES
Traded on over-the-counter
market
Non-standardized
Usually one specified delivery date
Settled at end of contract
Delivery (or final cash settlement)
taking place
Traded on an exchange
Standardized contract
Range of delivery dates
Settled daily
Contract is usually closed out
prior to maturity
Hull, 3rd ed, Table 2.3
BACKUP
As opposed to forwards, futures are standardized and exchange-
traded which reduces settlement risks
41. 41
OPTIONS: OVERVIEW
Options give their holder
the right – but not the obligation! –
to purchase (respectively sell) an underlying security
at a later time
at a price fixed which is determined in advance
Options might vary in an unlimited number of ways, for example,
• in terms of their underlying (stock, bond, currency, index ...)
• in terms of maturity and whether exercise is only at or also prior to maturity
• how the purchase price is set (fixed number, function of past prices ...) or more
broadly: how payoffs are defined
Here: Stock option, with a fixed purchase price and a single exercise date
Pricing of options is complicated because it involves dynamic replication over time.
Here we will look only at static strategies
Key about options is that they embody a right, not an obligation
42. 42
OPTIONS ACTUALLY
Theater / Bus / Train Subscribe or not? Subscription forgoes the option to
decide every time anew. Premium incurred through
higher prices for single tickets
OptionSituation
Holidays Cancellation fee / insurance. In former case,
premium paid only at exercise, in latter up-front.
Consumer Credit Protection rights allow consumer to repay loan at
any point in time w/o any particular reason.
Effectively, she has always option to cancel loan &
refinance when interest rates fall.
Banks are short an interest rate put option
Monetary Policy Rules versus Discretion: By retaining the option to
conduct discretionary policy, bank / economy pay a
premium in terms of worse economic performance
BACKUP
Options are all around us
43. 43
OPTIONAL TALK
• Call Option giving right to purchase
• Put Option giving right to sell
• Strike Exercise price at which underlying can be bought
• Premium Price of an option
• Maturity Time until / at which exercise possible
• European Option which can only exercised at maturity, but not before
• American Option which can be exercised also prior to maturity
• Binary Option paying a fixed amount if an event occurs (e.g. 1 CHF
if UBS higher than 105 in three months)
• Intrinsic Value Payoff if you could exercise today
• In / at / out of
the money Intrinsic value positive / zero / negative
• Plain Vanilla Standard contract, as opposed to exotic
GLOSSARY
Again, a little glossary might be useful
44. 44
Call Put
PLAIN VANILLA OPTIONS
ST
X
ST
X
Option to purchase stock at price X,
exercise if ST>X
Option to sell stock at price X,
exercise if ST<X
Payoff: max(X- ST,0)
What are lower/
upper bounds on
call and put
prices?
Payoff: max(ST-X,0)
Calls and Puts are only exercised when it is profitable
45. 45
Call Put
ZERO SUM POSITIONS
ST
X
ST
Long
Short
ST
ST
X
BACKUP
Derivatives are „zero sum games“, since payoffs on long and
short positions cancel
47. 47
OPTION STRATEGIES
ST X
ST
ST
Protective Put Covered Call
Put, stock and bond (all long) Call short and long stock
X
X1 X2
Call X1 long and Call X2 short
ST
X1 X2
Three Calls: 1 x X1 long, 2 x X2
short and 1 x X3 long
Butterfly Spread:
X1,X3→X2 gives State Price!
Bull Spread:
X1→X2 gives Binary Call
X3
BACKUP
With simple put/call strategies we can engineer various
interesting payoff profiles
48. 48
PAYOFF VERSUS PROFIT
ST
X
ST
X
FV(Price)
= Price times R
Payoff Profit
BACKUP
Here we always focused on payoffs. To evaluate success of a
strategy, you need to account for the inital price as well
49. 49
BINOMIAL SETTING
S
B
S•u
1
S•d
1
p
1 - p
t=0 t=1
„up-state“
„down-state“
Given:
• Stock and bond price given
• Stock can only move up or down
(factors u and d which are
known)
• probability of up-state is “p”
Example:
S=100, B=1/1.1, u=1.20, d=0.80
Used a lot in practice: Extend it by
appending another tree at
each node and keep extending …
The infinite limit is the venerable
Black-Scholes-Merton Model
BACKUP
We can understand the essence of option pricing
with a binomial tree
50. 50
BINOMIAL PRICING
Figure out prices of a
unit payoff in each state:
pu pd : „state prices“
NA implies for stock and
bond:
1
u d
u d
S S u p S d p
B p p
R
= +
= = +
Remember:
Every asset is a meal
made of payments in up-
state and down-state.
Prices exclude happy
meal!
The two state prices are
pinned down by the
two equations for bond
and stock
Solving 2
equations in 2
unknowns:
1
1
u
d u
R d
p
R u d
p p
R
−
=
−
= −
Probabilities „p“
and exp. return
irrelevant
Spread/volatility
u-d and riskfree
rate R are key
Example:
Call, X=100
Cu = 20 Cd = 0
C = 20 pu
= 20 • ¾ •0.9
= 13.50(w/o rocket-science)
BACKUP
Binomial pricing goes back to the ease of menu pricing
52. 52
DERIVATIVES CATCH 22
Derivatives are
important,
We need to
understand them
Derivatives can be
replicated
Asset Portfolios as
good as
Derivatives
Derivatives are
redundant
Regulation of
derivatives but not
of trading
strategies?
There must be more to derivatives than just replication
53. 53
PORTFOLIO INSURANCE ANNO 1987
Put Option
Contract
Replication /
Homemade Put
Buy contract
from bank
(good counterparty)
Short stock
whenever market
falls, invest proceeds
in Bond
Market Crash:
No or delayed
execution. Price
jumps impede
replication
Market Crash:
Put matures deep in
the money
Collect payoff from
counterparty
BACKUP
The Crash of 1987 highlighted a crucial difference between
replication strategies and contracts
54. 54
BASIS RISK
No perfect replication
Basis Risk
between
contract and
replication
Borne by
„arbitrageurs“:
banks,
hedge funds ...
Absolute
Pricing
This is for
another class.
Enjoy the
weekend!
Limits to replication require absolute pricing