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Elmar Mertens, Study Center Gerzensee
May 2007
FIXED INCOME PRODUCTS & DERIVATIVES
2
AGENDA
•Key Concept: No-Arbitrage
•Fixed Income Products
•Interest Rate Risk Managment
•Options
3
Absolute Pricing
• Given some asset prices,
what can we say about
some other securities?
(a.k.a derivatives)
• E.g.: Stocks of Palm v 3Com
• Derivative pricing, CAPM
(in practice)
• Larry Summers: “Ketchup
economics”
„No Free Lunch “
Return commensurate with Risk
„No Happy Meal“
Derivative price is replication cost
ASSET PRICING
• How is asset price linked to
fundamental, macroeconomic
sources of risk?
• E.g.: level of stock market vis-à-
vis economic growth
• CAPM (in theory), consumption
based models
Relative Pricing
The focus of the next two lectures is on relative pricing
4
AGENDA
•Key Concept: No-Arbitrage
•Fixed Income Products
•Interest Rate Risk Managment
•Options
5
HAPPY MEAL PRICING
Big Mac
6.30 CHF
Coke
3.30 CHF
French Fries
3.30 CHF
Happy Meal
10.90 CHF To be answered next:
• Shouldn‘t
everybody buy
happy meals and
sell the pieces?
• Why is there no
arbitrage at
McDonalds?
• Why should there
be arbitrage in
financial
markets?
2 CHF
Rebate
A Happy Meal is cheaper than the sum of its components
6
Costs nothing
Some Chance
of Profit
ARBITRAGE OPPORTUNITY
Criteria
Never makes a loss
No investment outlays
Zero price portfolio, usually involving short
(borrowing) and long (lending) positions
No future capital requirements
Losses in one leg of portfolio must always
be offset by gains on other leg
At least in some circumstances, net profits
accrue. (Net profits can vary across states)
Here is the definition of an arbitrage opportunity ...
7
NO ARBITRAGE
No Equilibrium with
Arbitrage Opportunities
Perfect Markets:
• No trading costs
• No counterparty risk
• Everybody can buy
(long) or sell (short)
any asset in any
quantity
More better than less:
• Everybody would want
to buy into arbitrage
opportunity, nobody
should want to sell
• Unlimited demand at
zero supply
Pricing is only relative:
• For example, 4%
borrowing and 5%
lending:
• No clue whether
borrowing too low,
lending too high or
both
Arbitrage can occur,
but only in limited
scale for limited time:
Off equilibrium!
No arbitrage (NA) is a necessary, but not sufficient condition for
equilibrium
8
EXAMPLES OF ARBITRAGE
Costless No Loss
Profit
maybe Arbitragesure
Lottery Ticket
- for free
- for 1 cent
Borrowing at 2% and
lending at 4%
Borrowing JPY at 1% and
lending USD at 4%
-
... and here are some examples
9
McDonalds Finance
FOOD RETAIL V WHOLESALE FINANCE
Coke, Burger, Fries
Prices of Coke, Burger Fries
A meal
Happy Meal
You can only buy from
McDonalds, no resale
Primitive assets
(often indirect: Coke, Coke &
Burger, Coke & Burger & Fries)
State prices
Complex security / portfolio
Arbitrage opportunity, since
meal should cost same as sum
of components
Investors can buy and sell
whatever quantity they want
BACKUP
Apart from terminology financial portfolios are much like meals
10
AGENDA
•Key Concept: No-Arbitrage
•Fixed Income Products
•Interest Rate Risk Managment
•Options
11
OVERVIEW FI PRODUCTS
Zero Coupon Bond
Coupon Bond
Forward Rate
Floating Rate Bond
Interest Rate Swap
Today v a later date
Today v several later dates
Tomorrow v after tomorrow
Today v tomorrow
Long-term asset v short-term liability
Trade-OffProduct
We will look at the following products
12
TALK THE TALK
• Bond Debtor‘s Promise to repay borrowed money at fixed
dates
• Principal Amount due (a.k.a. par value, notional). Here always
equal to one
• Maturity Time until last payment
• Duration Average time for all payments (see later)
• Coupon Intermediate payment, usually fixed percentage of
notional
• Zero bond Bond without coupon, only principal due (also: bullet)
• Yield Interest rate (see later: Yield-to-Maturity)
GLOSSARY
Some „jargon“is handy when talking about fixed income
13
FIXED INCOME SETTING
Basic prices:
Interest rates
between now
and future
dates
Consider:
• Fixed amounts
due at fixed
dates
• No default
• „When, not
whether, will
payments
occur?“
5.55.55.455.45.35.25.14.954.754.5i(0,t)
Spot Rate Curve in % p.a.
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Take the term structure of interest rates as given
14
Payoffs
COUPON BOND
A coupon bond has regular payments prior to maturity
time
-1
0
1
c
1+c
1 2 3 40
cc
A coupon bond holder receives multiple payments.
We focus first on the individual payments ...
15
ZERO BOND
A bond without coupons
Single payment at maturity: principal (here equal unity)
PricingPayoffs
TERMSHEET
1
(0, )
[1 (0, )]T
B T
i T
=
+
Example
Notes
Yield a.k.a. „spot rate“,
„zero rate“
-1
0
1
1 2 3 40
time
1
2
(0,1) 1.045 0.96
(0,2) 1.0475 0.91
(0,3) 0.87
(0,4) 0.82
B
B
B
B
−
−
= =
= =
=
=
Zero bonds are the basic building blocks of fixed income pricing
16
PricingPayoffs
TERMSHEET
Examples
COUPON BOND
A coupon bond has regular payments prior to maturity
1(0, , )
[1 (0, )]
T
t t
c
B T c
i t
== ∑
+
1
[1 (0, )]T
i T
+
+
time
-1
0
1
c
1+c
1 2 3 40
cc
(0,4,10%) 2.3B =
(0,4,0.5%) 1.02B =
A coupon bond is just a collection of zero bond payments
17
COUPON BOND AT PAR
1
1 [1 (0, )]
[1 (0, )]
T
tT
t
i T
c i
i t
−
−
=
− +
= =
+∑
For which coupon, would the
bond trade at par?
Par Value
(=1)
(1 ) [1 (0, )] T
c i T −
+ +
( 1)
[1 (0, 1)] T
c i T − −
+ −
M
1
[1 (0,1)]c i −
+
= Bond price
+
+
+
Par bonds have a coupon equal to their yield-to-maturity
18
PricingPayoffs
TERMSHEET
(0, )B t =
Examples
FORWARD RATES
An agreement today, to borrow money between t and T at rate f(0,t,T)
[1 (0, )]
(0, , ) 1
[1 (0, )]
T
T t
t
T t
i T
f t T
i t
−
−
+
= −
+
1
4 2
2
1.051
(0,2,4)
1.0475
f
⎛ ⎞
= ⎜ ⎟
⎝ ⎠
8.06%=
[1+f(0,2,4)]2
-1
0
1
1 t=2 3 T=40
time
B(0,2)
B(0,2)
(0, ) [1 (0, , )]T t
B T f t T −
+
Replicate with
long/short position
in zeros
Forward Rates lock in future conditions for borrowing and lending
19
NotesPayoffs
CARRY TRADE
Example of a simple, zero-investment portfolio.
Borrow short-term and lend long-term with different maturities
• No initial capital,
zero price
• Effectively a forward
contract
• Risk of reinvestment/
repricing at T1
• Profitable if
• Or, if future spot rate
below today’s forward
2
2 1 2(1, )[1 (0, )]T
B T T i T− +
1
1[1 (0, )]T
i T> +
2 1 1 2(1, ) (0, , )i T T f T T− <
-1
0
1
1 T1=2 3 T2=40
time
[1+i(0,2)]2
[1+i(0,4)]4
BACKUP
The carry trade bets on differences between future spot rates
and today’s forward rates
20
ZEROS AND FORWARDS BACKUP
1
11 (0, ) [1 (0, 1, )]T T
ti T f t t=+ = + −∏
1 (0, , )f t t n+ + =
No-Arbitrage implies that zero
rates are geometric averages
of forward rates
Likewise, forward rates are
geometric averages of forward
rates
1
1
0[1 (0, , 1)]n n
j f t j t j−
= + + + +∏
The math is simple: (0, )B T =
(0,2) (0,3) (0, )
(0,1)
(0,1) (0,2) (0, 1)
B B B T
B
B B B T −
K
What do forward rates tell
us about market
expectations of future
spot rates?
Do they say more than
current spot rates?
Multi-period zeros are like a sequence of forward contracts
21
Payoffs
INTEREST RATE SWAP
Exchange of interest rate payments: fixed v floating. No exchange of principal
Interest rates calculated for „notional“ principal
time
-1
0
1
1 2 3 40
i(1,1)=? i(2,1)=?i(0,1) i(3,1)=?
ccc c
Swaps offset fixed versus variable payments. To understand
them better we will look at “floating rate bonds” first
22
PricingPayoffs
TERMSHEET
Notes
FLOATING RATE BOND
Variable coupons.
Next coupon always set equal to then prevailing, one-period spot rate
(0, , ) 1B T float =
(0, , ) 1D T float =
• Effectively, a one-
period zero bond
• Implied “option” to
reinvest at future spot
rates worthless under
our wholesale
conditions
i(1,1)=? i(2,1)=?
time
-1
0
1
1 2 3 40
i(0,1)
1+i(3,1)=?
Payoff uncertain
But its PV at time 3 will
be equal to one for
sure! So at time 2 ...
Payments of a floater are determined one period in advance, but
unknown today
23
PricingPayoffs
TERMSHEETINTEREST RATE SWAP
Exchange of interest rate payments: fixed v floating. No exchange of principal
Interest rates calculated for „notional“ principal
• A portfolio of coupon
bond (long) and floater
(short) with same
principal
• Here: “fixed receiver“,
opposite picture for
fixed payer
• Coupon such that initial
value is zero: Fixed-leg
is par bond!
1
1 [1 (0, )]
[1 (0, )]
T
tT
t
i T
c
i t
−
−
=
− +
=
+∑
Example
4y year swap-rate: 5.08%
time
-1
0
1
1 2 3 40
i(1,1)=? i(2,1)=?i(0,1) i(3,1)=?
ccc c
Swaps match a floater with a fixed coupon bond
24
ALM WITH SWAPS
Bank
short term deposits &
long term loans
Fixed Payer Swap
Pay fixed and
receive floating
i(1,1)=?
1+i(2,1)=?
time
-1
0
1
1 2 3
i(0,1)
1+c
cc
c
i(1,1)=? i(2,1)=?
time
-1
0
1
1 2 3
i(0,1)
ccc
c
Swaps can simultaneously match the asset & liability profile of
bank‘s maturity risks. And against any move in the term structure!
25
COMPASS TO NA PRICING
Basic Assets
• Collect Prices
• Study Payoffs
Derivative Price
• Equals
replication cost
• Asset prices
times asset
weights in
replication
If you cannot replicate:
Absolute pricing (or
more assets)
Replicate the derivative with
a portfolio of assets
When you get lost in applications, try following this little system
26
AGENDA
•Key Concept: No-Arbitrage
•Fixed Income Products
•Interest Rate Risk Managment
•Options
27
YIELD-TO-MATURITY
Caveats
Like with any IRR ...
• TS usually not flat
• Yield-to-maturity is
complex average of
actual spot rates
• TS not constant,
reinvestment risk is
substantial
• Sensitive to size of
coupon
• Specific to each bond!
If the TS were flat and remained
flat, what would be the return to
bondholder if she reinvested all
coupons until maturity?
0 (1 ) 1
1
(0, , )
T tT
t
T
c i
i
B T c
−
=∑ + +
= −
1
1
(0, , )
(1 ) (1 )
T
t t T
c
B T c
i i
== +∑
+ +
If the TS were flat.
At which level would it
match the bond price?
A bond‘s Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is also known as Yield-to-
Maturity
28
PRICE YIELD RELATIONSHIP
yield
price
current yield
current price
( )dB i
di
If the TS were flat and shifted just
a little bit, what will be
effect on bond price?
For small yield changes we can look at linear approximations to
price changes
29
DURATION
Present
Values
time
What is the
average time
until all claims
are paid?
(... and let us
average with
present-value
weights)
1
(1 ) (1 )
(0, , )
(0, , ) (0, , )
t T
T
t
c i i
D T c t T
B T c B T c
− −
=
+ +
= +∑
1
[1 (0, )] [1 (0, )]
(0, , )
(0, , ) (0, , )
t T
T
teff
c i t i T
D T c t T
B T c B T c
− −
=
+ +
= +∑
To understand price sensitivity, duration is important.
It measures the center of gravity of the payoffs‘ present values
30
DURATION OF LONG-TERM BONDS
Cash-Flow Present Values of Par-Bonds
1 10 20 30 40 50
time
Maturity: 10y
Coupon: 5.45%
Maturity: 30y
Coupon: 5.47%
Valuation using term structure example, spot rates beyond 10y equal 5.5%
Maturity: 50y
Coupon: 5.48%
Duration: 7.95 y
Duration: 15.30 y
Duration: 17.81 y
Compared to long term bonds, ultra-long-term bonds do not add
much duration
31
PRICE SENSITIVITY AND DURATION
Note
• Higher duration, higher
yield risk
• Only for small changes
in yield-to-maturity and
parallel shifts in flat TS
• D/(1+i) a.k.a. “modified
Duration”
• Extensions
– Effective Duration
(uses actual spot
rates)
– Key Rate Duration
(moves of single
spot rate)
... The effect of yield change on
bond price is proportional to
duration!
( ) ( )
1
dB i B i
D
di i
= −
+
1
1
( )
(1 ) (1 )
T
t t T
c
B i
i i
== +∑
+ +
1
1
1
( )
(1 ) (1 )
T
t t T
c
D t T B i
i i
−
=
⎛ ⎞
= +∑⎜ ⎟
+ +⎝ ⎠
That is why duration is so useful: It is proportional to approximate
price changes when yield changes
32
IMMUNIZATION
Problem
• How to protect bond portfolio’s
value in H periods, FH, against
changes in yield-to-maturity?
• Again: parallel shifts of flat TS
Solution:
• Construct portfolio such that
duration equals horizon H
( ) ( )(1 )H
HF i B i i= +
1( ) ( )
(1 ) ( ) (1 )H HHdF i dB i
H i B i i
di di
−
= + + +
( )
0HdF i
di
= H D=for
3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%
Future Values in 4.6 years
yield
D=4.6, T= 5, , C=4%
D=3.77, T= 4, C=4%
D=7.71, T= 9, C=4%
Portfolio duration should match the duration of your liabilities
33
CONVEXITY
yield
price
current yield
current price
BACKUP
Note
• Convexity is “good”
since: lower price fall
if yield increases,
higher gain if yield
falls
• Convexity greater if
payoffs more
dispersed over time
2
2
( ) 1
( )
d B i
C
di B i
=
2
2 2
2
( ) 1 ( ) 1 ( ) 1
( ) ( )
( ) ( ) 2 (1 ) 2
B i dB i d B i D
di di di C di
B i B i di di i
∆ −⎛ ⎞ ⎛ ⎞
≈ + = +⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟ +⎝ ⎠⎝ ⎠
See de La Grandville chapters 7 & 8 for more
To improve upon the linear approximation, look at convexity
34
BOND PORTFOLIOSBOND PORTFOLIOS
General Principle:
„Price everything as a bundle of
zero bonds“
• Zero bond prices B(t), B(0) = 1
• Payoffs: CF(t) (t=0 ... T)
• payoff‘s value-weight:
Portfolio Price and Duration:
( ) ( )
( )
CF t B t
w t
P
=
0
0
( ) ( )
( )
T
t
T
t
CF t B t
D t
P
t w t
=
=
= ∑
= ∑
Applied to Bond Portfolio:
• Portfolio with bonds i = 1... N
• Bonds price Pi , quantities qi ,
Durations Di and payoffs CFi(t)
• value-weights
• Cash Flows
Portfolio Price and Duration:
i i
i
q P
w
P
=
1( ) ( )N
i i iCF t q CF t== ∑
0 ( ) ( )T
tP CF t B t== ∑ 0 1
0 1
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
T N
t i i i
T N
t i i
P q CF t B t
CF t B t w P
= =
= =
= ∑ ∑
= =∑ ∑
1
N
i i iD w D== ∑
Duration: only for non-zero price and
when yield-to-maturities not different
BACKUP
It is straightforward to extend the previous tools to bond portfolios
35
CAVEAT
The previous section on immunization, duration and
convexity looked at changes in yield-to-maturity
This is best understood for parallel shifts with flat term
structures
When you aggregate in a portfolio, all bonds should
thus have the same yield
These techniques are common and within the above
limits useful. But be careful when looking at bonds with
different yield-to-maturity
To think about differences in yields and non-parallel
shifts, look at effective duration and key rate durations
YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED ;-)
Always remember the assumptions behind simple analysis
with yield / duration / convexity
36
AGENDA
•Key Concept: No-Arbitrage
•Fixed Income Products
•A First Glance at Risk Managment
•Options
37
CORPORATE BOND
Zero bond issue from a risky business with limited liability
is not default free
Need to think about issuer‘s ability to repay, in other words:
need to look at firm‘s asset value at bond‘s maturity
Payoff
Firm Assets
at Maturity
Debt /
Bond‘s face value
Debt /
Bond‘s
face
value
Partial
Default
This payoff is
resembles a
„Put Option“
Once we want to consider the default risk of corporate bonds, we
are in the world of options, that is our next topic
38
STOCK AND BOND
Payoffs
ST
ST
Default-free Bond
(w/notional X)
Henceforth: Suppose the stock pays no dividend until T
X·R
Now we look at a single point in time, „T“, but across different states
(the various prices of the underlying stock ST)
39
FORWARD PRICE OF STOCK
Payoffs
ST
ST
Bond w/notional St
Forward
Forward on stock is
agreement to buy
stock at T
Price is determined
now, such that current
value of Fwd is zero
F=St R
Effectively a liquidity
transformation: Long
Stock (now!) financed
with short bond
St·R
St·R
A static strategy of stock and bond replicates a forward contract
on the stock
40
Forward Futures
FORWARD VERSUS FUTURES
Traded on over-the-counter
market
Non-standardized
Usually one specified delivery date
Settled at end of contract
Delivery (or final cash settlement)
taking place
Traded on an exchange
Standardized contract
Range of delivery dates
Settled daily
Contract is usually closed out
prior to maturity
Hull, 3rd ed, Table 2.3
BACKUP
As opposed to forwards, futures are standardized and exchange-
traded which reduces settlement risks
41
OPTIONS: OVERVIEW
Options give their holder
the right – but not the obligation! –
to purchase (respectively sell) an underlying security
at a later time
at a price fixed which is determined in advance
Options might vary in an unlimited number of ways, for example,
• in terms of their underlying (stock, bond, currency, index ...)
• in terms of maturity and whether exercise is only at or also prior to maturity
• how the purchase price is set (fixed number, function of past prices ...) or more
broadly: how payoffs are defined
Here: Stock option, with a fixed purchase price and a single exercise date
Pricing of options is complicated because it involves dynamic replication over time.
Here we will look only at static strategies
Key about options is that they embody a right, not an obligation
42
OPTIONS ACTUALLY
Theater / Bus / Train Subscribe or not? Subscription forgoes the option to
decide every time anew. Premium incurred through
higher prices for single tickets
OptionSituation
Holidays Cancellation fee / insurance. In former case,
premium paid only at exercise, in latter up-front.
Consumer Credit Protection rights allow consumer to repay loan at
any point in time w/o any particular reason.
Effectively, she has always option to cancel loan &
refinance when interest rates fall.
Banks are short an interest rate put option
Monetary Policy Rules versus Discretion: By retaining the option to
conduct discretionary policy, bank / economy pay a
premium in terms of worse economic performance
BACKUP
Options are all around us
43
OPTIONAL TALK
• Call Option giving right to purchase
• Put Option giving right to sell
• Strike Exercise price at which underlying can be bought
• Premium Price of an option
• Maturity Time until / at which exercise possible
• European Option which can only exercised at maturity, but not before
• American Option which can be exercised also prior to maturity
• Binary Option paying a fixed amount if an event occurs (e.g. 1 CHF
if UBS higher than 105 in three months)
• Intrinsic Value Payoff if you could exercise today
• In / at / out of
the money Intrinsic value positive / zero / negative
• Plain Vanilla Standard contract, as opposed to exotic
GLOSSARY
Again, a little glossary might be useful
44
Call Put
PLAIN VANILLA OPTIONS
ST
X
ST
X
Option to purchase stock at price X,
exercise if ST>X
Option to sell stock at price X,
exercise if ST<X
Payoff: max(X- ST,0)
What are lower/
upper bounds on
call and put
prices?
Payoff: max(ST-X,0)
Calls and Puts are only exercised when it is profitable
45
Call Put
ZERO SUM POSITIONS
ST
X
ST
Long
Short
ST
ST
X
BACKUP
Derivatives are „zero sum games“, since payoffs on long and
short positions cancel
46
PUT-CALL PARITY
Forward=
C-P
ST
Forward=
S - B•X
Bond
Call
Put
X
X
Put-Call Parity relates Options to Forwards independently of any
pricing model
47
OPTION STRATEGIES
ST X
ST
ST
Protective Put Covered Call
Put, stock and bond (all long) Call short and long stock
X
X1 X2
Call X1 long and Call X2 short
ST
X1 X2
Three Calls: 1 x X1 long, 2 x X2
short and 1 x X3 long
Butterfly Spread:
X1,X3→X2 gives State Price!
Bull Spread:
X1→X2 gives Binary Call
X3
BACKUP
With simple put/call strategies we can engineer various
interesting payoff profiles
48
PAYOFF VERSUS PROFIT
ST
X
ST
X
FV(Price)
= Price times R
Payoff Profit
BACKUP
Here we always focused on payoffs. To evaluate success of a
strategy, you need to account for the inital price as well
49
BINOMIAL SETTING
S
B
S•u
1
S•d
1
p
1 - p
t=0 t=1
„up-state“
„down-state“
Given:
• Stock and bond price given
• Stock can only move up or down
(factors u and d which are
known)
• probability of up-state is “p”
Example:
S=100, B=1/1.1, u=1.20, d=0.80
Used a lot in practice: Extend it by
appending another tree at
each node and keep extending …
The infinite limit is the venerable
Black-Scholes-Merton Model
BACKUP
We can understand the essence of option pricing
with a binomial tree
50
BINOMIAL PRICING
Figure out prices of a
unit payoff in each state:
pu pd : „state prices“
NA implies for stock and
bond:
1
u d
u d
S S u p S d p
B p p
R
= +
= = +
Remember:
Every asset is a meal
made of payments in up-
state and down-state.
Prices exclude happy
meal!
The two state prices are
pinned down by the
two equations for bond
and stock
Solving 2
equations in 2
unknowns:
1
1
u
d u
R d
p
R u d
p p
R
−
=
−
= −
Probabilities „p“
and exp. return
irrelevant
Spread/volatility
u-d and riskfree
rate R are key
Example:
Call, X=100
Cu = 20 Cd = 0
C = 20 pu
= 20 • ¾ •0.9
= 13.50(w/o rocket-science)
BACKUP
Binomial pricing goes back to the ease of menu pricing
51
AGENDA
Epilog
52
DERIVATIVES CATCH 22
Derivatives are
important,
We need to
understand them
Derivatives can be
replicated
Asset Portfolios as
good as
Derivatives
Derivatives are
redundant
Regulation of
derivatives but not
of trading
strategies?
There must be more to derivatives than just replication
53
PORTFOLIO INSURANCE ANNO 1987
Put Option
Contract
Replication /
Homemade Put
Buy contract
from bank
(good counterparty)
Short stock
whenever market
falls, invest proceeds
in Bond
Market Crash:
No or delayed
execution. Price
jumps impede
replication
Market Crash:
Put matures deep in
the money
Collect payoff from
counterparty
BACKUP
The Crash of 1987 highlighted a crucial difference between
replication strategies and contracts
54
BASIS RISK
No perfect replication
Basis Risk
between
contract and
replication
Borne by
„arbitrageurs“:
banks,
hedge funds ...
Absolute
Pricing
This is for
another class.
Enjoy the
weekend!
Limits to replication require absolute pricing

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emNAFI2007

  • 1. Elmar Mertens, Study Center Gerzensee May 2007 FIXED INCOME PRODUCTS & DERIVATIVES
  • 2. 2 AGENDA •Key Concept: No-Arbitrage •Fixed Income Products •Interest Rate Risk Managment •Options
  • 3. 3 Absolute Pricing • Given some asset prices, what can we say about some other securities? (a.k.a derivatives) • E.g.: Stocks of Palm v 3Com • Derivative pricing, CAPM (in practice) • Larry Summers: “Ketchup economics” „No Free Lunch “ Return commensurate with Risk „No Happy Meal“ Derivative price is replication cost ASSET PRICING • How is asset price linked to fundamental, macroeconomic sources of risk? • E.g.: level of stock market vis-à- vis economic growth • CAPM (in theory), consumption based models Relative Pricing The focus of the next two lectures is on relative pricing
  • 4. 4 AGENDA •Key Concept: No-Arbitrage •Fixed Income Products •Interest Rate Risk Managment •Options
  • 5. 5 HAPPY MEAL PRICING Big Mac 6.30 CHF Coke 3.30 CHF French Fries 3.30 CHF Happy Meal 10.90 CHF To be answered next: • Shouldn‘t everybody buy happy meals and sell the pieces? • Why is there no arbitrage at McDonalds? • Why should there be arbitrage in financial markets? 2 CHF Rebate A Happy Meal is cheaper than the sum of its components
  • 6. 6 Costs nothing Some Chance of Profit ARBITRAGE OPPORTUNITY Criteria Never makes a loss No investment outlays Zero price portfolio, usually involving short (borrowing) and long (lending) positions No future capital requirements Losses in one leg of portfolio must always be offset by gains on other leg At least in some circumstances, net profits accrue. (Net profits can vary across states) Here is the definition of an arbitrage opportunity ...
  • 7. 7 NO ARBITRAGE No Equilibrium with Arbitrage Opportunities Perfect Markets: • No trading costs • No counterparty risk • Everybody can buy (long) or sell (short) any asset in any quantity More better than less: • Everybody would want to buy into arbitrage opportunity, nobody should want to sell • Unlimited demand at zero supply Pricing is only relative: • For example, 4% borrowing and 5% lending: • No clue whether borrowing too low, lending too high or both Arbitrage can occur, but only in limited scale for limited time: Off equilibrium! No arbitrage (NA) is a necessary, but not sufficient condition for equilibrium
  • 8. 8 EXAMPLES OF ARBITRAGE Costless No Loss Profit maybe Arbitragesure Lottery Ticket - for free - for 1 cent Borrowing at 2% and lending at 4% Borrowing JPY at 1% and lending USD at 4% - ... and here are some examples
  • 9. 9 McDonalds Finance FOOD RETAIL V WHOLESALE FINANCE Coke, Burger, Fries Prices of Coke, Burger Fries A meal Happy Meal You can only buy from McDonalds, no resale Primitive assets (often indirect: Coke, Coke & Burger, Coke & Burger & Fries) State prices Complex security / portfolio Arbitrage opportunity, since meal should cost same as sum of components Investors can buy and sell whatever quantity they want BACKUP Apart from terminology financial portfolios are much like meals
  • 10. 10 AGENDA •Key Concept: No-Arbitrage •Fixed Income Products •Interest Rate Risk Managment •Options
  • 11. 11 OVERVIEW FI PRODUCTS Zero Coupon Bond Coupon Bond Forward Rate Floating Rate Bond Interest Rate Swap Today v a later date Today v several later dates Tomorrow v after tomorrow Today v tomorrow Long-term asset v short-term liability Trade-OffProduct We will look at the following products
  • 12. 12 TALK THE TALK • Bond Debtor‘s Promise to repay borrowed money at fixed dates • Principal Amount due (a.k.a. par value, notional). Here always equal to one • Maturity Time until last payment • Duration Average time for all payments (see later) • Coupon Intermediate payment, usually fixed percentage of notional • Zero bond Bond without coupon, only principal due (also: bullet) • Yield Interest rate (see later: Yield-to-Maturity) GLOSSARY Some „jargon“is handy when talking about fixed income
  • 13. 13 FIXED INCOME SETTING Basic prices: Interest rates between now and future dates Consider: • Fixed amounts due at fixed dates • No default • „When, not whether, will payments occur?“ 5.55.55.455.45.35.25.14.954.754.5i(0,t) Spot Rate Curve in % p.a. 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Take the term structure of interest rates as given
  • 14. 14 Payoffs COUPON BOND A coupon bond has regular payments prior to maturity time -1 0 1 c 1+c 1 2 3 40 cc A coupon bond holder receives multiple payments. We focus first on the individual payments ...
  • 15. 15 ZERO BOND A bond without coupons Single payment at maturity: principal (here equal unity) PricingPayoffs TERMSHEET 1 (0, ) [1 (0, )]T B T i T = + Example Notes Yield a.k.a. „spot rate“, „zero rate“ -1 0 1 1 2 3 40 time 1 2 (0,1) 1.045 0.96 (0,2) 1.0475 0.91 (0,3) 0.87 (0,4) 0.82 B B B B − − = = = = = = Zero bonds are the basic building blocks of fixed income pricing
  • 16. 16 PricingPayoffs TERMSHEET Examples COUPON BOND A coupon bond has regular payments prior to maturity 1(0, , ) [1 (0, )] T t t c B T c i t == ∑ + 1 [1 (0, )]T i T + + time -1 0 1 c 1+c 1 2 3 40 cc (0,4,10%) 2.3B = (0,4,0.5%) 1.02B = A coupon bond is just a collection of zero bond payments
  • 17. 17 COUPON BOND AT PAR 1 1 [1 (0, )] [1 (0, )] T tT t i T c i i t − − = − + = = +∑ For which coupon, would the bond trade at par? Par Value (=1) (1 ) [1 (0, )] T c i T − + + ( 1) [1 (0, 1)] T c i T − − + − M 1 [1 (0,1)]c i − + = Bond price + + + Par bonds have a coupon equal to their yield-to-maturity
  • 18. 18 PricingPayoffs TERMSHEET (0, )B t = Examples FORWARD RATES An agreement today, to borrow money between t and T at rate f(0,t,T) [1 (0, )] (0, , ) 1 [1 (0, )] T T t t T t i T f t T i t − − + = − + 1 4 2 2 1.051 (0,2,4) 1.0475 f ⎛ ⎞ = ⎜ ⎟ ⎝ ⎠ 8.06%= [1+f(0,2,4)]2 -1 0 1 1 t=2 3 T=40 time B(0,2) B(0,2) (0, ) [1 (0, , )]T t B T f t T − + Replicate with long/short position in zeros Forward Rates lock in future conditions for borrowing and lending
  • 19. 19 NotesPayoffs CARRY TRADE Example of a simple, zero-investment portfolio. Borrow short-term and lend long-term with different maturities • No initial capital, zero price • Effectively a forward contract • Risk of reinvestment/ repricing at T1 • Profitable if • Or, if future spot rate below today’s forward 2 2 1 2(1, )[1 (0, )]T B T T i T− + 1 1[1 (0, )]T i T> + 2 1 1 2(1, ) (0, , )i T T f T T− < -1 0 1 1 T1=2 3 T2=40 time [1+i(0,2)]2 [1+i(0,4)]4 BACKUP The carry trade bets on differences between future spot rates and today’s forward rates
  • 20. 20 ZEROS AND FORWARDS BACKUP 1 11 (0, ) [1 (0, 1, )]T T ti T f t t=+ = + −∏ 1 (0, , )f t t n+ + = No-Arbitrage implies that zero rates are geometric averages of forward rates Likewise, forward rates are geometric averages of forward rates 1 1 0[1 (0, , 1)]n n j f t j t j− = + + + +∏ The math is simple: (0, )B T = (0,2) (0,3) (0, ) (0,1) (0,1) (0,2) (0, 1) B B B T B B B B T − K What do forward rates tell us about market expectations of future spot rates? Do they say more than current spot rates? Multi-period zeros are like a sequence of forward contracts
  • 21. 21 Payoffs INTEREST RATE SWAP Exchange of interest rate payments: fixed v floating. No exchange of principal Interest rates calculated for „notional“ principal time -1 0 1 1 2 3 40 i(1,1)=? i(2,1)=?i(0,1) i(3,1)=? ccc c Swaps offset fixed versus variable payments. To understand them better we will look at “floating rate bonds” first
  • 22. 22 PricingPayoffs TERMSHEET Notes FLOATING RATE BOND Variable coupons. Next coupon always set equal to then prevailing, one-period spot rate (0, , ) 1B T float = (0, , ) 1D T float = • Effectively, a one- period zero bond • Implied “option” to reinvest at future spot rates worthless under our wholesale conditions i(1,1)=? i(2,1)=? time -1 0 1 1 2 3 40 i(0,1) 1+i(3,1)=? Payoff uncertain But its PV at time 3 will be equal to one for sure! So at time 2 ... Payments of a floater are determined one period in advance, but unknown today
  • 23. 23 PricingPayoffs TERMSHEETINTEREST RATE SWAP Exchange of interest rate payments: fixed v floating. No exchange of principal Interest rates calculated for „notional“ principal • A portfolio of coupon bond (long) and floater (short) with same principal • Here: “fixed receiver“, opposite picture for fixed payer • Coupon such that initial value is zero: Fixed-leg is par bond! 1 1 [1 (0, )] [1 (0, )] T tT t i T c i t − − = − + = +∑ Example 4y year swap-rate: 5.08% time -1 0 1 1 2 3 40 i(1,1)=? i(2,1)=?i(0,1) i(3,1)=? ccc c Swaps match a floater with a fixed coupon bond
  • 24. 24 ALM WITH SWAPS Bank short term deposits & long term loans Fixed Payer Swap Pay fixed and receive floating i(1,1)=? 1+i(2,1)=? time -1 0 1 1 2 3 i(0,1) 1+c cc c i(1,1)=? i(2,1)=? time -1 0 1 1 2 3 i(0,1) ccc c Swaps can simultaneously match the asset & liability profile of bank‘s maturity risks. And against any move in the term structure!
  • 25. 25 COMPASS TO NA PRICING Basic Assets • Collect Prices • Study Payoffs Derivative Price • Equals replication cost • Asset prices times asset weights in replication If you cannot replicate: Absolute pricing (or more assets) Replicate the derivative with a portfolio of assets When you get lost in applications, try following this little system
  • 26. 26 AGENDA •Key Concept: No-Arbitrage •Fixed Income Products •Interest Rate Risk Managment •Options
  • 27. 27 YIELD-TO-MATURITY Caveats Like with any IRR ... • TS usually not flat • Yield-to-maturity is complex average of actual spot rates • TS not constant, reinvestment risk is substantial • Sensitive to size of coupon • Specific to each bond! If the TS were flat and remained flat, what would be the return to bondholder if she reinvested all coupons until maturity? 0 (1 ) 1 1 (0, , ) T tT t T c i i B T c − =∑ + + = − 1 1 (0, , ) (1 ) (1 ) T t t T c B T c i i == +∑ + + If the TS were flat. At which level would it match the bond price? A bond‘s Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is also known as Yield-to- Maturity
  • 28. 28 PRICE YIELD RELATIONSHIP yield price current yield current price ( )dB i di If the TS were flat and shifted just a little bit, what will be effect on bond price? For small yield changes we can look at linear approximations to price changes
  • 29. 29 DURATION Present Values time What is the average time until all claims are paid? (... and let us average with present-value weights) 1 (1 ) (1 ) (0, , ) (0, , ) (0, , ) t T T t c i i D T c t T B T c B T c − − = + + = +∑ 1 [1 (0, )] [1 (0, )] (0, , ) (0, , ) (0, , ) t T T teff c i t i T D T c t T B T c B T c − − = + + = +∑ To understand price sensitivity, duration is important. It measures the center of gravity of the payoffs‘ present values
  • 30. 30 DURATION OF LONG-TERM BONDS Cash-Flow Present Values of Par-Bonds 1 10 20 30 40 50 time Maturity: 10y Coupon: 5.45% Maturity: 30y Coupon: 5.47% Valuation using term structure example, spot rates beyond 10y equal 5.5% Maturity: 50y Coupon: 5.48% Duration: 7.95 y Duration: 15.30 y Duration: 17.81 y Compared to long term bonds, ultra-long-term bonds do not add much duration
  • 31. 31 PRICE SENSITIVITY AND DURATION Note • Higher duration, higher yield risk • Only for small changes in yield-to-maturity and parallel shifts in flat TS • D/(1+i) a.k.a. “modified Duration” • Extensions – Effective Duration (uses actual spot rates) – Key Rate Duration (moves of single spot rate) ... The effect of yield change on bond price is proportional to duration! ( ) ( ) 1 dB i B i D di i = − + 1 1 ( ) (1 ) (1 ) T t t T c B i i i == +∑ + + 1 1 1 ( ) (1 ) (1 ) T t t T c D t T B i i i − = ⎛ ⎞ = +∑⎜ ⎟ + +⎝ ⎠ That is why duration is so useful: It is proportional to approximate price changes when yield changes
  • 32. 32 IMMUNIZATION Problem • How to protect bond portfolio’s value in H periods, FH, against changes in yield-to-maturity? • Again: parallel shifts of flat TS Solution: • Construct portfolio such that duration equals horizon H ( ) ( )(1 )H HF i B i i= + 1( ) ( ) (1 ) ( ) (1 )H HHdF i dB i H i B i i di di − = + + + ( ) 0HdF i di = H D=for 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% Future Values in 4.6 years yield D=4.6, T= 5, , C=4% D=3.77, T= 4, C=4% D=7.71, T= 9, C=4% Portfolio duration should match the duration of your liabilities
  • 33. 33 CONVEXITY yield price current yield current price BACKUP Note • Convexity is “good” since: lower price fall if yield increases, higher gain if yield falls • Convexity greater if payoffs more dispersed over time 2 2 ( ) 1 ( ) d B i C di B i = 2 2 2 2 ( ) 1 ( ) 1 ( ) 1 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2 (1 ) 2 B i dB i d B i D di di di C di B i B i di di i ∆ −⎛ ⎞ ⎛ ⎞ ≈ + = +⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟ +⎝ ⎠⎝ ⎠ See de La Grandville chapters 7 & 8 for more To improve upon the linear approximation, look at convexity
  • 34. 34 BOND PORTFOLIOSBOND PORTFOLIOS General Principle: „Price everything as a bundle of zero bonds“ • Zero bond prices B(t), B(0) = 1 • Payoffs: CF(t) (t=0 ... T) • payoff‘s value-weight: Portfolio Price and Duration: ( ) ( ) ( ) CF t B t w t P = 0 0 ( ) ( ) ( ) T t T t CF t B t D t P t w t = = = ∑ = ∑ Applied to Bond Portfolio: • Portfolio with bonds i = 1... N • Bonds price Pi , quantities qi , Durations Di and payoffs CFi(t) • value-weights • Cash Flows Portfolio Price and Duration: i i i q P w P = 1( ) ( )N i i iCF t q CF t== ∑ 0 ( ) ( )T tP CF t B t== ∑ 0 1 0 1 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) T N t i i i T N t i i P q CF t B t CF t B t w P = = = = = ∑ ∑ = =∑ ∑ 1 N i i iD w D== ∑ Duration: only for non-zero price and when yield-to-maturities not different BACKUP It is straightforward to extend the previous tools to bond portfolios
  • 35. 35 CAVEAT The previous section on immunization, duration and convexity looked at changes in yield-to-maturity This is best understood for parallel shifts with flat term structures When you aggregate in a portfolio, all bonds should thus have the same yield These techniques are common and within the above limits useful. But be careful when looking at bonds with different yield-to-maturity To think about differences in yields and non-parallel shifts, look at effective duration and key rate durations YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED ;-) Always remember the assumptions behind simple analysis with yield / duration / convexity
  • 36. 36 AGENDA •Key Concept: No-Arbitrage •Fixed Income Products •A First Glance at Risk Managment •Options
  • 37. 37 CORPORATE BOND Zero bond issue from a risky business with limited liability is not default free Need to think about issuer‘s ability to repay, in other words: need to look at firm‘s asset value at bond‘s maturity Payoff Firm Assets at Maturity Debt / Bond‘s face value Debt / Bond‘s face value Partial Default This payoff is resembles a „Put Option“ Once we want to consider the default risk of corporate bonds, we are in the world of options, that is our next topic
  • 38. 38 STOCK AND BOND Payoffs ST ST Default-free Bond (w/notional X) Henceforth: Suppose the stock pays no dividend until T X·R Now we look at a single point in time, „T“, but across different states (the various prices of the underlying stock ST)
  • 39. 39 FORWARD PRICE OF STOCK Payoffs ST ST Bond w/notional St Forward Forward on stock is agreement to buy stock at T Price is determined now, such that current value of Fwd is zero F=St R Effectively a liquidity transformation: Long Stock (now!) financed with short bond St·R St·R A static strategy of stock and bond replicates a forward contract on the stock
  • 40. 40 Forward Futures FORWARD VERSUS FUTURES Traded on over-the-counter market Non-standardized Usually one specified delivery date Settled at end of contract Delivery (or final cash settlement) taking place Traded on an exchange Standardized contract Range of delivery dates Settled daily Contract is usually closed out prior to maturity Hull, 3rd ed, Table 2.3 BACKUP As opposed to forwards, futures are standardized and exchange- traded which reduces settlement risks
  • 41. 41 OPTIONS: OVERVIEW Options give their holder the right – but not the obligation! – to purchase (respectively sell) an underlying security at a later time at a price fixed which is determined in advance Options might vary in an unlimited number of ways, for example, • in terms of their underlying (stock, bond, currency, index ...) • in terms of maturity and whether exercise is only at or also prior to maturity • how the purchase price is set (fixed number, function of past prices ...) or more broadly: how payoffs are defined Here: Stock option, with a fixed purchase price and a single exercise date Pricing of options is complicated because it involves dynamic replication over time. Here we will look only at static strategies Key about options is that they embody a right, not an obligation
  • 42. 42 OPTIONS ACTUALLY Theater / Bus / Train Subscribe or not? Subscription forgoes the option to decide every time anew. Premium incurred through higher prices for single tickets OptionSituation Holidays Cancellation fee / insurance. In former case, premium paid only at exercise, in latter up-front. Consumer Credit Protection rights allow consumer to repay loan at any point in time w/o any particular reason. Effectively, she has always option to cancel loan & refinance when interest rates fall. Banks are short an interest rate put option Monetary Policy Rules versus Discretion: By retaining the option to conduct discretionary policy, bank / economy pay a premium in terms of worse economic performance BACKUP Options are all around us
  • 43. 43 OPTIONAL TALK • Call Option giving right to purchase • Put Option giving right to sell • Strike Exercise price at which underlying can be bought • Premium Price of an option • Maturity Time until / at which exercise possible • European Option which can only exercised at maturity, but not before • American Option which can be exercised also prior to maturity • Binary Option paying a fixed amount if an event occurs (e.g. 1 CHF if UBS higher than 105 in three months) • Intrinsic Value Payoff if you could exercise today • In / at / out of the money Intrinsic value positive / zero / negative • Plain Vanilla Standard contract, as opposed to exotic GLOSSARY Again, a little glossary might be useful
  • 44. 44 Call Put PLAIN VANILLA OPTIONS ST X ST X Option to purchase stock at price X, exercise if ST>X Option to sell stock at price X, exercise if ST<X Payoff: max(X- ST,0) What are lower/ upper bounds on call and put prices? Payoff: max(ST-X,0) Calls and Puts are only exercised when it is profitable
  • 45. 45 Call Put ZERO SUM POSITIONS ST X ST Long Short ST ST X BACKUP Derivatives are „zero sum games“, since payoffs on long and short positions cancel
  • 46. 46 PUT-CALL PARITY Forward= C-P ST Forward= S - B•X Bond Call Put X X Put-Call Parity relates Options to Forwards independently of any pricing model
  • 47. 47 OPTION STRATEGIES ST X ST ST Protective Put Covered Call Put, stock and bond (all long) Call short and long stock X X1 X2 Call X1 long and Call X2 short ST X1 X2 Three Calls: 1 x X1 long, 2 x X2 short and 1 x X3 long Butterfly Spread: X1,X3→X2 gives State Price! Bull Spread: X1→X2 gives Binary Call X3 BACKUP With simple put/call strategies we can engineer various interesting payoff profiles
  • 48. 48 PAYOFF VERSUS PROFIT ST X ST X FV(Price) = Price times R Payoff Profit BACKUP Here we always focused on payoffs. To evaluate success of a strategy, you need to account for the inital price as well
  • 49. 49 BINOMIAL SETTING S B S•u 1 S•d 1 p 1 - p t=0 t=1 „up-state“ „down-state“ Given: • Stock and bond price given • Stock can only move up or down (factors u and d which are known) • probability of up-state is “p” Example: S=100, B=1/1.1, u=1.20, d=0.80 Used a lot in practice: Extend it by appending another tree at each node and keep extending … The infinite limit is the venerable Black-Scholes-Merton Model BACKUP We can understand the essence of option pricing with a binomial tree
  • 50. 50 BINOMIAL PRICING Figure out prices of a unit payoff in each state: pu pd : „state prices“ NA implies for stock and bond: 1 u d u d S S u p S d p B p p R = + = = + Remember: Every asset is a meal made of payments in up- state and down-state. Prices exclude happy meal! The two state prices are pinned down by the two equations for bond and stock Solving 2 equations in 2 unknowns: 1 1 u d u R d p R u d p p R − = − = − Probabilities „p“ and exp. return irrelevant Spread/volatility u-d and riskfree rate R are key Example: Call, X=100 Cu = 20 Cd = 0 C = 20 pu = 20 • ¾ •0.9 = 13.50(w/o rocket-science) BACKUP Binomial pricing goes back to the ease of menu pricing
  • 52. 52 DERIVATIVES CATCH 22 Derivatives are important, We need to understand them Derivatives can be replicated Asset Portfolios as good as Derivatives Derivatives are redundant Regulation of derivatives but not of trading strategies? There must be more to derivatives than just replication
  • 53. 53 PORTFOLIO INSURANCE ANNO 1987 Put Option Contract Replication / Homemade Put Buy contract from bank (good counterparty) Short stock whenever market falls, invest proceeds in Bond Market Crash: No or delayed execution. Price jumps impede replication Market Crash: Put matures deep in the money Collect payoff from counterparty BACKUP The Crash of 1987 highlighted a crucial difference between replication strategies and contracts
  • 54. 54 BASIS RISK No perfect replication Basis Risk between contract and replication Borne by „arbitrageurs“: banks, hedge funds ... Absolute Pricing This is for another class. Enjoy the weekend! Limits to replication require absolute pricing