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ELNIÑO
STILLS WINTER WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
(AND THAT’S BOTH GOOD AND BAD NEWS
FOR THE WIND ENERGY INDUSTRY)




                                     SCOTT ST. GEORGE   STEPHEN WOLFE
3,432




                          wind energy (MW)
                                                             2,246


                                                   1,770

                                        1,460




                                 684
                          444
                    322
       198   236
137
2000         2002         2004         2006                  2008
                                       Source: Canadian Wind Energy Association
INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY
      “ add[s] significantly to the
        uncertainty in predicating the
        energy output of a wind farm at
        a particular location during its
        projected lifetime. ”
INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY


         “ not well understood ”
Uncorrected wind speed records contain discontinuities caused by non-climatic effects




                                                    Source: Wan et al., Journal of Climate, 2010
Wan, H. Wang, X.L. and Swail, V.R. (2010).
Homogenization and trend analysis of Canadian
near-surface winds. Journal of Climate 23, 1209-1225.
mean annual wind speed
@ 10 m
Wind farms on the Canadian Prairies produce nearly one gigawatt of electricity




photo: Andy van der Raadt
mean annual wind speed
@ 10 m
Source: St. George and Wolfe, GRL, 2009
Source: St. George and Wolfe, GRL, 2009
Mean winter wind speed, southern Canadian Prairies




                                 Source: St. George and Wolfe, GRL, 2009
Low-wind winters (1954 to 2006)

      1969 • 1978 • 1983
      1993 • 1995 • 1998


                                  legend not to scale
wind anomalies during the 1998 winter




                                  legend not to scale
SST and geopotential height anomalies during low-wind winters
Source: St. George and Wolfe, GRL, 2009
Source: St. George and Wolfe, GRL, 2009
scalar wind anomalies
@ 250 millibars
scalar wind anomalies
@ 250 millibars
“   [The next strong El Niño] ... may also test the ability of
    Prairie wind farms to maintain expected energy outputs
    during a prolonged interval of unusually weak winds.
                                                           ”
                          Geophysical Research Letters
                                    December 2009
Sea-surface temperature anomalies during the 2009-2010 winter
Scalar wind anomalies @ 250 mb during the 2009-2010 winter
“   ...our wind resources in the quarter were down
    approximately 30 percent, compared to what we
    would see in a normal year. As a result, expected
    production from our wind facilities was lower by
                             ”
    roughly 200 gigawatt hours.
                                             Stephen Snyder
                         President and Chief Executive Officer
                                              April 27, 2010
ELNIÑO
STILLS WINTER WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
(AND THAT’S BOTH GOOD AND BAD NEWS
FOR THE WIND ENERGY INDUSTRY)




                                     SCOTT ST. GEORGE   STEPHEN WOLFE

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El Nino stills winter winds across the southern Canadian Prairies

  • 1. ELNIÑO STILLS WINTER WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES (AND THAT’S BOTH GOOD AND BAD NEWS FOR THE WIND ENERGY INDUSTRY) SCOTT ST. GEORGE STEPHEN WOLFE
  • 2. 3,432 wind energy (MW) 2,246 1,770 1,460 684 444 322 198 236 137 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Source: Canadian Wind Energy Association
  • 3.
  • 4. INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY “ add[s] significantly to the uncertainty in predicating the energy output of a wind farm at a particular location during its projected lifetime. ”
  • 5. INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY “ not well understood ”
  • 6. Uncorrected wind speed records contain discontinuities caused by non-climatic effects Source: Wan et al., Journal of Climate, 2010
  • 7.
  • 8. Wan, H. Wang, X.L. and Swail, V.R. (2010). Homogenization and trend analysis of Canadian near-surface winds. Journal of Climate 23, 1209-1225.
  • 9. mean annual wind speed @ 10 m
  • 10. Wind farms on the Canadian Prairies produce nearly one gigawatt of electricity photo: Andy van der Raadt
  • 11. mean annual wind speed @ 10 m
  • 12. Source: St. George and Wolfe, GRL, 2009
  • 13. Source: St. George and Wolfe, GRL, 2009
  • 14. Mean winter wind speed, southern Canadian Prairies Source: St. George and Wolfe, GRL, 2009
  • 15. Low-wind winters (1954 to 2006) 1969 • 1978 • 1983 1993 • 1995 • 1998 legend not to scale
  • 16. wind anomalies during the 1998 winter legend not to scale
  • 17. SST and geopotential height anomalies during low-wind winters
  • 18. Source: St. George and Wolfe, GRL, 2009
  • 19. Source: St. George and Wolfe, GRL, 2009
  • 20.
  • 21. scalar wind anomalies @ 250 millibars
  • 22. scalar wind anomalies @ 250 millibars
  • 23. [The next strong El Niño] ... may also test the ability of Prairie wind farms to maintain expected energy outputs during a prolonged interval of unusually weak winds. ” Geophysical Research Letters December 2009
  • 24. Sea-surface temperature anomalies during the 2009-2010 winter
  • 25. Scalar wind anomalies @ 250 mb during the 2009-2010 winter
  • 26. ...our wind resources in the quarter were down approximately 30 percent, compared to what we would see in a normal year. As a result, expected production from our wind facilities was lower by ” roughly 200 gigawatt hours. Stephen Snyder President and Chief Executive Officer April 27, 2010
  • 27. ELNIÑO STILLS WINTER WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES (AND THAT’S BOTH GOOD AND BAD NEWS FOR THE WIND ENERGY INDUSTRY) SCOTT ST. GEORGE STEPHEN WOLFE