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Effective Altruism workshop_Hillebrandt
- 3. Introductions: who are you? Everyone sit close to front Introduce yourself to neighbours Icebreakers: If you could wake up with any 1 ability tomorrow, what would it be? Which superhero did the most good?
- 6. What is “Effective Altruism”? • www.effectivealtruism.org • Sign up for our newsletter • Givewell.org • Check out the AMF report • Open Philanthropy Project • Check out the CGD grant writeup
- 7. What is “Effective Altruism”? • Effective altruism is a philosophy and social movement • The core idea: • Effective altruism is using evidence and analysis to take actions that help others as much as possible.
- 9. Academic research (from 80,000 hours):
- 10. Earnings: Don’t worry • Projected GDP per capita in the UK will be 130,000 USD by 2040
- 18. Interactive exercise: Global Burden of Disease Study http://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd- compare/ Task 1: figure out what a DALY and QALY is! Task 2: play around with the settings to find something that surprises you.
- 19. YLD Years Lived with Disability - the amount a disease affects someone is given a disability weight. The disability weight is multiplied by the number of years lived with that disease to calculate YLD YLL Years of Life Lost - the number of years of potential life lost (relative to an idealised life expectancy) from a particular disease or risk factor. This is equal to a disability weight of 1. DALY Disability-adjusted life year; a measure of disease burden which quantifies both morbidity and mortality; calculated by summing YLL and YLD. The cost- effectiveness is measured in $ per DALY averted. QALY Quality-adjusted life year - similar to a DALY but measures the inverse (a QALY is good and measure QALYs gained, while a DALY is bad and we measure DALYs averted). The cost-effectiveness is measured in $ per QALY gained.
- 23. Prison reform in the US
- 24. Less tractable: basic income?
- 32. Questions about neglectedness: • What is the median consumption per capita in Germany? • What is the median consumption (PPP adjusted) in the poorest country on the planet? • How much do we spend in the Germany spend on health per person per year on average? • What is the upper bound for the DRC?
- 33. Gesundheitsbudget in Deutschland • Etwa 4000 € pro Person pro Jahr • Bruttoinlandsprodukt pro Kopf Demokratische Republik Kongo: 648 Dollar pro Jahr!
- 34. • How much do we spend for one healthy year of life? • How much does it cost to avert a DALY globally? • Value of a statistical life? • $ per death prevented in the developing world?
- 35. Neglectedness policy: climate change vs. antibiotic resistance vs AI safety
- 44. ComparaDve cost-effecDveness analyses: Net present value analysis? Net present value per dollar: ~$0.90 Deworming Net present value per dollar: ~$50 (Baird et al. 2012)
- 45. ComparaDve cost-effecDveness analyses: Net present value analysis? Net present value per dollar: ~$0.90 Deworming Net present value per dollar: ~$50 (Baird et al. 2012) Expected Value calculaDon: $50 * 2% = $1 -> sDll beats cash transfer
- 50. scholar
- 56. Exercise: Google scholar search and ITN analysis • Micronutrient Deficiencies • SMS reminders for vaccinations • Prevention of HIV/AIDS • Climate Change • Your own favourite cause • Find a new cause area
- 57. US Poverty Global poverty Scale 46m on $20 per day 1bn+ on $1 per day Neglectedness $900bn welfare $130bn aid Solvability Most interventions don’t work Cash transfers work Global Poverty vs US Poverty
- 58. Exercise: Google scholar search and ITN analysis Reading: • https://80000hours.org/articles/ problem-framework
- 64. Tractability: Total Addi>onal Annual Cost of Achieving 90% Coverage with Nutri>on Interven>ons Nutrition interventions Cost Salt iodisation $68 Multiple micronutrient supplementation in pregnancy (includes iron- folate) $472 Calcium supplementation in pregnancy $1914 Energy-protein supplementation in pregnancy $972 Vitamin A supplementation in childhood $106 Zinc supplementation in childhood $1182 Breastfeeding promotion $653 Complementary feeding education $269 Complementary feeding supplementation $1359 Severe acute Malnutrition management $2563 64
- 66. scholar
- 70. 1920:
- 71. 1925:
- 72. 1926:
- 76. Giving What We Can! - ~2200 members have pledged to donate to effective organisations - 800 million dollar pledges - 10 Million Dollar donated - 4 Million Dollar in the next year
- 77. The “Giving What We Can” Pledge • “I recognise that I can use part of my income to do a significant amount of good. Since I can live well enough on a smaller income, I pledge that for the rest of my life or until the day I retire, I will give 10% percent of what I earn to whichever organisations can most effectively use it to improve the lives of others mprove the lives of others, now and in the years to come. I make this pledge freely, openly, and sincerely.”
- 78. £50 £ £ £ £ 1 year of healthy life 100 children dewormed
- 79. $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Save several lives= =
- 82. Conclusion • Use the ITN Framework: • Importance • Tractable • Neglected • Cost-effecDve • Use Google Scholar • Click the cited by bukon to see what other experts have to say about a topic • Create Alerts for your favourite topics • Natural experiments are cool
- 83. Malaria