The document discusses the close links between the economy and housing market. It provides data on housing need, population growth forecasts, and surveys of new housing developments in Cambridgeshire. Resources from Cambridgeshire Insight, including the East of England Forecasting Model and Strategic Housing Market Assessment, are used to understand trends in the local economy, jobs, and housing to support council priorities.
Dan Mitchell, partner at Barton Willmore, presents on M60 development from a planning perspective and sets out the lessons learned from M60 towns in the past decade
Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough Economic Assessment Data Atlas IntroCambridgeshireInsight
The Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough Economic Assessment provides a wealth of economic evidence for the Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough Local Enterprise Partnership (GCGP LEP) area and its constituent districts.
The GCGP Economic Assessment is divided into three sections: People, Business and Place. The Assessment presents a variety of data from different sources. The main geographies used in this Atlas are districts and 2011 wards, although others are used where necessary. The Atlas sits alongside analysis of the evidence and the raw data (Excel spreadsheets).
More data will be available as further datasets are added to the Assessment over the coming months. All available data can be explored from the Data Index.
This slideshow provides tips on how to use the GCGP Economic Assessment Atlas.
Cambridgeshire data relating to births, deaths and demographicsCambridgeshireInsight
Cambridgeshire data relating to births, deaths and demographics from 2004 to 2013.
Data also includes armed forces personnel in Cambridgeshire from 2008 to 2014.
Dan Mitchell, partner at Barton Willmore, presents on M60 development from a planning perspective and sets out the lessons learned from M60 towns in the past decade
Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough Economic Assessment Data Atlas IntroCambridgeshireInsight
The Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough Economic Assessment provides a wealth of economic evidence for the Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough Local Enterprise Partnership (GCGP LEP) area and its constituent districts.
The GCGP Economic Assessment is divided into three sections: People, Business and Place. The Assessment presents a variety of data from different sources. The main geographies used in this Atlas are districts and 2011 wards, although others are used where necessary. The Atlas sits alongside analysis of the evidence and the raw data (Excel spreadsheets).
More data will be available as further datasets are added to the Assessment over the coming months. All available data can be explored from the Data Index.
This slideshow provides tips on how to use the GCGP Economic Assessment Atlas.
Cambridgeshire data relating to births, deaths and demographicsCambridgeshireInsight
Cambridgeshire data relating to births, deaths and demographics from 2004 to 2013.
Data also includes armed forces personnel in Cambridgeshire from 2008 to 2014.
A very quick introduction to some of the UK's housing dilemmas, illustrating why more owner-occupation may only make the situation worse. I've written a blog post on it here: http://livingwithrats.blogspot.com/2009/12/for-richer-for-poorer.html
“Covering Your Local Economy” was first offered on Aug. 21, 2013, as part of the Asian American Journalists Association’s pre-conference schedule.
The economy is still the biggest story going, and these resources will equip you with the story ideas and skills you need to tackle economic stories on any beat. Get armed with the tools and understanding you need to tackle local economic stories, including those in the labor and housing markets.
WHAT YOU WILL LEARN
How to find the economic angle in stories on any beat,
How to use statistics to find and develop local economic stories,
How to find fresh angles on the job and housing markets in your town, and
What 10 stories on the economy you should jump on now.
YOUR INSTRUCTORS
Marilyn Geewax is the national economics correspondent for NPR. Geewax is regularly heard discussing economic news on Tell Me More, Talk of the Nation and Weekend Edition. Her work contributed to NPR’s 2011 Edward R. Murrow Award for Hard News for “The Foreclosure Nightmare.” Follow her on Twitter at @geewaxnpr
Meena Thiruvengadam is business channel manager at Digital First Media’s Project Thunderdome. Previously, she covered the Treasury, Federal Reserve and economic news for Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal in Washington. Follow her on Twitter at @Meena_Thiru.
SELF-GUIDED LESSON
Review the workshop materials below and discover new ways to cover local economic angles.
PowerPoint presentations
Covering Your Local Economy: It’s Everybody’s Business — Geewax
When Will the Jobs Come Back? — Geewax
What’s Happening with Housing — Geewax
10 Local Economic Stories to Jump on Now — Thiruvengadam
For more information about training for business journalists, please visit businessjournalism.org.
This presentation represents the different views of Cambridge and how it can be defined.
This has been prepared for the event: "Could Cambridge be a smarter city?" (http://www.collusion.org.uk/Smarter-City) at the 2014 Festival of Ideas (http://www.festivalofideas.cam.ac.uk/). It is part of a set of resources to help inform the debate and the subsequent Challenges.
For more details see: http://www.cambridgeshireinsight.org.uk/smart-cities/defining-cambridge
Slides from the Q1 2017 US Economic and Housing Market Update webinar with Rick Sharga. Learn more about the key factors driving the US housing market in 2017 and beyond.
Mike Soper will present what is essentially a Human Geographer’s perspective on the changing nature of Cambridgeshire. He will consider spatial variations in the distribution, composition and growth of the County’s population alongside the economic geography. From this perspective he will draw conclusions on what the County will look like in 25 years’ time.
Mike (@CambsCCstatGuy) is an old graduate of Reading University’s school of geography and currently leads Cambridgeshire County Council’s Research Team, www.cambridgeshireinsight.org.uk .The team have a number of specialisms including economic forecasting & research, GIS & mapping, housing needs assessment and population forecasting.
Milton keynes population, household, labour force projections bulletin 2015 16Liena Wied
Currently I'm working in Milton Keynes Council as a Senior Research Analyst, and this is one of big report that I've published for public access about Milton Keynes Projection (produced in 2015/16) in Population, Household and Labor Force.
Information on Ledyard Housing and Population. Housing Data Profiles are produced by the Partnership for Strong Communities. Updated November 16, 2015.
The presentation slides from LDC's first Welsh Retail Summit in partnership with the Wales Institute of Social and Economic Research, Data & Methods (WISERD) held in Cardiff on 27th January 2016.
The presentation slides are based on the joint research produced by LDC and WISERD. This report reveals the latest figures of Wales' Towns and Cities including the number of retail premises, the vacancy rates, persistent vacancy levels and the retail structure.
The main takeaways:
Wales is slightly more multiple (chain retailer) oriented than GB as a whole (38% v 35% of shops).
Welsh towns have seen the biggest increase in the number of independent retailers in the last three years from 52% to 57%.
Wales' overall vacancy rate is 14.2% in 2015 against 13.0 % for GB.
This report also addresses the following questions:
What is the retail scale of Welsh towns and cities?
What is the vacancy rate and how is it changing?
What is the retail structure of Wales' towns and cities?
Download the report summary here: http://info.localdatacompany.com/2015-welsh-town-report-download
A very quick introduction to some of the UK's housing dilemmas, illustrating why more owner-occupation may only make the situation worse. I've written a blog post on it here: http://livingwithrats.blogspot.com/2009/12/for-richer-for-poorer.html
“Covering Your Local Economy” was first offered on Aug. 21, 2013, as part of the Asian American Journalists Association’s pre-conference schedule.
The economy is still the biggest story going, and these resources will equip you with the story ideas and skills you need to tackle economic stories on any beat. Get armed with the tools and understanding you need to tackle local economic stories, including those in the labor and housing markets.
WHAT YOU WILL LEARN
How to find the economic angle in stories on any beat,
How to use statistics to find and develop local economic stories,
How to find fresh angles on the job and housing markets in your town, and
What 10 stories on the economy you should jump on now.
YOUR INSTRUCTORS
Marilyn Geewax is the national economics correspondent for NPR. Geewax is regularly heard discussing economic news on Tell Me More, Talk of the Nation and Weekend Edition. Her work contributed to NPR’s 2011 Edward R. Murrow Award for Hard News for “The Foreclosure Nightmare.” Follow her on Twitter at @geewaxnpr
Meena Thiruvengadam is business channel manager at Digital First Media’s Project Thunderdome. Previously, she covered the Treasury, Federal Reserve and economic news for Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal in Washington. Follow her on Twitter at @Meena_Thiru.
SELF-GUIDED LESSON
Review the workshop materials below and discover new ways to cover local economic angles.
PowerPoint presentations
Covering Your Local Economy: It’s Everybody’s Business — Geewax
When Will the Jobs Come Back? — Geewax
What’s Happening with Housing — Geewax
10 Local Economic Stories to Jump on Now — Thiruvengadam
For more information about training for business journalists, please visit businessjournalism.org.
This presentation represents the different views of Cambridge and how it can be defined.
This has been prepared for the event: "Could Cambridge be a smarter city?" (http://www.collusion.org.uk/Smarter-City) at the 2014 Festival of Ideas (http://www.festivalofideas.cam.ac.uk/). It is part of a set of resources to help inform the debate and the subsequent Challenges.
For more details see: http://www.cambridgeshireinsight.org.uk/smart-cities/defining-cambridge
Slides from the Q1 2017 US Economic and Housing Market Update webinar with Rick Sharga. Learn more about the key factors driving the US housing market in 2017 and beyond.
Mike Soper will present what is essentially a Human Geographer’s perspective on the changing nature of Cambridgeshire. He will consider spatial variations in the distribution, composition and growth of the County’s population alongside the economic geography. From this perspective he will draw conclusions on what the County will look like in 25 years’ time.
Mike (@CambsCCstatGuy) is an old graduate of Reading University’s school of geography and currently leads Cambridgeshire County Council’s Research Team, www.cambridgeshireinsight.org.uk .The team have a number of specialisms including economic forecasting & research, GIS & mapping, housing needs assessment and population forecasting.
Milton keynes population, household, labour force projections bulletin 2015 16Liena Wied
Currently I'm working in Milton Keynes Council as a Senior Research Analyst, and this is one of big report that I've published for public access about Milton Keynes Projection (produced in 2015/16) in Population, Household and Labor Force.
Information on Ledyard Housing and Population. Housing Data Profiles are produced by the Partnership for Strong Communities. Updated November 16, 2015.
The presentation slides from LDC's first Welsh Retail Summit in partnership with the Wales Institute of Social and Economic Research, Data & Methods (WISERD) held in Cardiff on 27th January 2016.
The presentation slides are based on the joint research produced by LDC and WISERD. This report reveals the latest figures of Wales' Towns and Cities including the number of retail premises, the vacancy rates, persistent vacancy levels and the retail structure.
The main takeaways:
Wales is slightly more multiple (chain retailer) oriented than GB as a whole (38% v 35% of shops).
Welsh towns have seen the biggest increase in the number of independent retailers in the last three years from 52% to 57%.
Wales' overall vacancy rate is 14.2% in 2015 against 13.0 % for GB.
This report also addresses the following questions:
What is the retail scale of Welsh towns and cities?
What is the vacancy rate and how is it changing?
What is the retail structure of Wales' towns and cities?
Download the report summary here: http://info.localdatacompany.com/2015-welsh-town-report-download
John Daley looks at how Australasian economies and cities are changing. Despite mining and agricultural booms, economic activity is gravitating towards big cities and their centres. These new patterns create challenges: longer commutes; geographic divides that limit opportunities for both businesses and individuals; and put social fabric under strain.
To make the most of 21st century urbanisation - and share the benefits fairly, there need to be reforms to planning, transport and taxation. These are the core of the reform agenda for our times.
Watch this conversation at: http://aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/conversations
Trends and Projections for the town of Ashland, Massachusetts, prepared and presented by Tim Reardon, the Metropolitan Area Planning Council's Deputy Director of Data Services at the PlanAshland visioning forum in Ashland, Mass. on October 27, 2014.
BIM and trends in construction | Empowering you in a BIM WorldThe NBS
Slides from a presentation by David Bain at the Empowering you in a BIM world event from NBS in June 2016.
David Bain, Research Manager, NBS David has 15 years’ experience in research and marketing, six of those at NBS. He has designed, led and carried out market research for the UK Government, construction product manufacturers, housing associations, NBS, and the RIBA. Outside the built environment, he has delivered research for the NHS, universities, and charities.
CIM Spring Marketing Conference 2015
From Segments to Fragments: Conflicting economic signals and their implications for marketers. Paul Flatters, Trajectory
Presentation by Zhi Liu on Land Municipal Finance & Housing as part of the "Panel on China's Land Management System Reform: Issues, Progress and Prospect" which took place during the annual World Bank Conference on Land and Poverty held in Washington DC from March 23 to 27, 2015.
Cambridgeshire atlases-Data visualisation of local socio-demographic dataCambridgeshireInsight
The Cambridgeshire Atlas is a display tool that allows users to view interactive atlases, dashboards, profiles or key indicator reports. It is easy to use and helps users to understand complicated socio-economic datasets quickly.
It combines maps, charts and graphs to allow viewing of data trends for different geographies in Cambridgeshire.
Cambridgeshire Atlases cover a number of themes including Census 2011, Deprivation, Community Safety, Housing, People and Population and Social Classification. See more at: http://cambridgeshireinsight.org.uk/interactive-maps
This is presentation outline the main local insights, data and intelligence produced by the Cambridge Sub Regional Housing Board. It includes web pages, data visualisations, open data and reports.
A study of ‘who are the victims of crime in Cambridgeshire & Peterborough now?’ Highlighting the shape and nature of victimisation in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough.
Policy Compass Workshop, 1st of June 2015
The main goal of Policy Compass is to develop a research prototype of an easy-to-use, highly visual and intuitive tool for social networks and eParticipation platforms, enabling citizens and public officials to easily create, apply, share, embed, annotate and discuss causal models, charts and graphs of historical data from trusted open data sources. The aim is to develop methods and tools that facilitate more factual, evidence-based, transparent and accountable policy evaluation and analysis.
http://policycompass.eu/
Cambridgeshire County Council's Research Group are celebrating LARIA's Local Area Research Fortnight by hosting a series of lunchtime seminars on their work.
This is Seminar 2: Demography and Pupil Forecasting
Policy compass - Cambridgeshire County Council Pilot status (Berlin presentat...CambridgeshireInsight
Policy Compass-Project presentation: Cambridgeshire County Council Pilot status 10 March 2015
Policy Compass tested in the Adult Learning & Skills policy making process
First round of testing with colleagues in the CCC completed and feedback given
Everyone struggled but those with open data/IT background struggled less
It was not intuitive – real world communities will struggle
Manual/help pages need to be more visual with worked examples
Terminology will be alien to community user groups
We can see the potential and there is a desire amongst user test group to be able to interrogate policy making
Open Data & Local Authorities, Paul Maltby-Director of Open Data and Government Innovation.
Presented on the 27th of November 2014 to the "Why is open data important for Cambridgeshire" workshop.
2. “It’s the economy1 stupid”
1. Which is very closely linked with the housing
market for many reasons including: land prices,
house prices, population age structures, commuting patterns, retail locations,
future employment trends, migration patterns, land availability, local earnings, strengths in industrial sectors, unemployment, the list goes on….
6. Cambridgeshire population forecasts
560
590
620
650
680
710
740
770
800
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Population(000s)
EEFM high migration
EEFM lost decade
EEFM baseline
Census trend
CCC housing targets
LEFM RG Pop
ONS 2011-based projections
LEFM baseline
ONS 2010-based projections
CCC natural change
CCC no build
East of England
Forecasting Model (EEFM)
9. People Business Place
Local Economic Assessment
Cambridgeshire JSA claimant count unemployment : Total claimants aged 16-64 (Feb-04 to
Dec-14)
10. People Business Place
Workplace destination of employed residents aged 16-74 who
live in East Cambridgeshire: proportion of total employed
resident population aged 16-74 (2011)
Local Economic Assessment
11. Housing Research
• Strategic Housing Market Assessment
– Assessment of housing requirement
– Assessment of affordable housing need
– Market signals: House Prices, Rents, Affordability,
Supply of new homes, Overcrowding and
Homelessness
• Rural housing profiles
• Fuel poverty atlas and benefits changes atlas
12. New developments
surveys
• 2006-2012: 7 surveys of about 35 sites, including
Cambourne and Red Lodge.
• Asking about household type, where they have
moved from, employment and travel, and things
people like/dislike about new developments
• Individual reports for each survey and comparison
report:
http://www.cambridgeshireinsight.org.uk/housing/h
ousing-research/new-housing-development-surveys
14. New homes for local
people
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 <2km <5km <10km <20km <30km <40km <60km
Percentageofnewdevelopmenthouseholds
Distance moved from previous home
15. Cambridge and South Cambs
- a major economic centre
• 63% of Cambourne residents work in City/South
Cambs. 27% of Red Lodge residents employed in this
area.
• Cambridge is a major centre for non-food shopping.
• Good road links to employment centres are
important. More than three-quarters of respondents
travel to work by car.
17. Summary
• Knowledge about the economy and housing
are important in supporting council priorities
around helping people live well independently
in a safe environment and leading a healthy
lifestyle, supporting a prosperous economy.
• We have a range of resources available around
housing and the economy including the EEFM,
SHMA and new developments surveys.
This presentation: explains how the economy & housing market are connected; explains why the economy and housing market matter; and provides examples of the economic and housing evidence available at www.cambridgeshireinsight.org.uk.
The economy and housing market are very closely linked. For example, the strength of the economy affects house prices and house-building rates; the availability of different types of housing affects the supply of workers for jobs in an area; and the location of housing in relation to jobs affects commuting patterns.
The economy and housing market are important to the County Council and other local authorities in Cambridgeshire. For example, good quality housing in the right place can support wellbeing of people- a priority for all the authorities; a prosperous economy with people in work means fewer people relying on county council services; and with lots of housing planned in Cambridgeshire, it’s essential that the Council provides services and infrastructure that meets future needs.
It is therefore important to understand the local economy and housing market, to inform the decisions of officers and members. Collating local economic and housing market evidence also meets statutory requirements.
Number of homes sold = 10,960. 2,363 sold for less than £150,000
Social rented stock in Cambridgeshire at time of last Census = 38,506
People claiming JSA in Cambridgeshire Dec-14 = 3,140
Number of homes to be built in Cambridgeshire 2011-31 = 73,500
Recognising that different people understand information in different ways, the Research Group presents evidence in different formats to suit everyone. Formats include: raw data; interactive spreadsheets; interactive atlases (including features such as map, table, time series and bar chart); and written analysis.
The East of England Forecasting Model (EEFM) projects economic, demographic and housing trends in a consistent fashion, based upon a set of ‘baseline’ forecasts prepared by a leading independent forecasting house (Oxford Economics). It covers a wide range of variables, and is designed to be flexible so that alternative scenarios can be run.
The EEFM was used to inform the assessment of the required number of houses in Cambridge Housing Market Area for 2011-31. Jobs-led population forecasts from the EEFM informed an update to the Strategic Housing Market Assessment, which is referenced in slide 11. The flexibility of the Model was particularly helpful in incorporating the planned jobs growth at Alconbury into the population forecasts which informed the housing demand figures. The EEFM also informed the authorities’ bid for the Greater Cambridge City Deal.
Spreadsheet outputs from the EEFM are available at www.cambridgeshireinsight.org.uk/eefm.
The Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough Economic Assessment provides a comprehensive economic evidence base. The Assessment is split into three sections: People, Business and Place, and covers the Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough Local Enterprise Partnership (GCGP LEP) geography, shown here.
The Economic Assessment supports the District Councils to assess their economic development needs, and provides a strategic assessment of economic development needs at the LEP level. The Assessment provides a comprehensive economic evidence base and context for the County Council’s economic interventions, and supports the County Council to monitor its Business Plan priorities.
As an example of Business evidence provided in the Economic Assessment, this slide shows a screenshot of the new GCGP Economic Assessment Data Atlas, available on Cambs Insight. The Economic Assessment Data Atlas allows users to explore the economic data in map, table, time series and bar chart form.
This screenshot shows the number of people in professional, scientific and technical employment in 2013 (the latest data). The darkest green areas on the map are in Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire, reflecting the hi-tech cluster centred upon the city.
As an example of People evidence provided in the Economic Assessment, this slide shows a time series chart of Cambridgeshire Job Seeker’s Allowance (JSA) claimant count unemployment : Total claimants aged 16-64 (Feb-04 to Dec-14). The time series shows a clear increase in JSA claimants in 2008 and 2009, reflecting the start of the international recession. A high number of claimants remained until February 2013, since when the number has fallen pretty consistently. By December 2014, the number of JSA claimants in Cambridgeshire was at a lower point than it had been in February 2004.
Individual elements from the Data Atlas , such as this chart, can be saved as images to be used as users wish.
As an example of Place evidence provided in the Economic Assessment, this map and table show where the employed residents of East Cambridgeshire (aged 16-74) worked in 2011. As the darkest green colours on the map and the table show, 52% of employed residents of East Cambridgeshire work in East Cambridgeshire. The next highest proportion of employed East Cambridgeshire residents commute to work in Cambridge.
As with the time series chart, the table and map can be downloaded as images from the Atlas.
Example of housing research
Population of new developments is quite young with a high number of children especially in new towns. Cambourne – good school as a “pull” factor for that site, but even on Red Lodge where moving to a good catchment doesn’t get a mention there is still a high proportion of children compared to Forest Heath as a whole.
More than half of new development residents moved within 20km of their new home which suggests moves mostly within the same district/county (sites on the edges of Cambridgeshire have higher proportion of moves from outside the county, e.g. St Neots has people moving from Bedfordshire etc.)
Cambridge is an important employment centre for most of the sites surveyed. While the “home” district was the most common place for people to work in, Cambridge showed as an important employment centre for a lot of sites. Cambridge has the largest change in workday population outside London, other Cambridgeshire districts, the population shrinks during the working day.
Peterborough an important employment centre for Whittlesey and Yaxley etc (i.e. places on the edge of Peterborough).
Another “draw” for new developments is sometimes price/affordability (mentioned a lot for reason to moving to Cambourne/Red Lodge). Cambourne is expensive compared to rest of South Cambs and Red Lodge is expensive compared to the rest of Forest Heath). Compared to Cambridge they are quite cheap. Graph shows data for 2014 from Land Registry. Proportionately more homes avaialble for less than £150K in Cambourne and Red Lodge, and the homes that are available in this price band are mostly leasehold flats in the city, and mostly semis or terraces and freehold in the new towns (another reason its attractive for young families).