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WHERE REAL ESTATE IS MOVING
2017 U.S. Economic &
Housing Market Update
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
2
What We’ll Cover Today
¨ US Economic Overview
¨ Existing and New Home Sales
¨ State of the Foreclosure Market
¨ The Mortgage Market
¨ Closing Thoughts
A Brief Introduction to Ten-X
The Leading Online Real Estate Marketplace
NUMBERS
$46 Billion
Of assets sold
275,000+
Assets sold
INVESTORS MILESTONES
2007
Company
founded
2016
Ten-X
2009
CRE platform
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
5
The Ten-X Brand Family
Our	new	name,	Ten-X,	reflects	expansion	of	the	services	
we’ll	be	delivering	– and	the	much	broader	audience	we	
plan	to	reach	via	three	distinct	lines	of	business.
Dedicated	to	the	sale	of	
quality	commercial	
properties	via	auction	and	
more	traditional	methods
A	new	platform	created	especially	
for	consumers	and	agents,	with	a	
focus	on	move-in	ready	homes	
The	nation’s	largest	online	
real	estate	marketplace,	now	
exclusively	focused	on	the	
sale	of	bank-owned	and	
foreclosure	properties
US Economic Overview
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
7
GDP Stable, but Still Lags Historic Averages
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
8
Inflation in Line with Market Expectations
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
9
Unemployment Rate Continues to Improve
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
10
Labor Force Participation Rate Still Historically Low
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
11
And Part Time Employment Historically High
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
12
Wage Growth Appears to be Steady
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
13
And Consumer Confidence Highest Since 2000
National Housing Market Overview
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
15
Existing Home Sales Ticking Up
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
16
New Home Sales Improving, But Uneven
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
17
Existing Home Inventory Historically Low
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
18
New Home Inventory Improving, But Near 40-Year Low
18
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
19
Housing Starts Improving…
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
20
But Lagging Behind Prior Recoveries…
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
21
…and Inflated by Multifamily Numbers
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
22
Prices Continue to Rise, Outpacing Wage Growth
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
23
And Affordability is Becoming More of a Concern
23
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
24
Homeownership Rates Still Near 50-Year Low
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
25
Even Though Household Formation Is Picking Up
25
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
26
Student Loan Debt a Factor in Household Formation
26
Foreclosure Market Update
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
28
Delinquency Rates Continue to Fall
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
29
Foreclosure Starts Declining Rapidly
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
30
Monthly Foreclosure Activity Trending Down
30
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
31
And Overall Foreclosure Activity Approaches Normal Levels
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
32
Percentage of Loans in Foreclosure Lowest Since 2006
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
33
Distressed & Cash Sales Declining, but Still Above Norm
33
The Mortgage Market
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
35
Mortgage Rates are Finally Rising…
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
36
…But are Still Near Their Historic Lows
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
37
Refinance Activity Falling Fast
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
38
Purchase Activity May Not be Enough to Offset Drop
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
39
But as Rates Rise, Credit May Loosen
International Investors
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
41
International Buyers Account for Over $100 Billion
41
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
42
China, Canada Dominate Purchases
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
43
But Interest is Strong from Around the World
Closing Thoughts
© 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary
45
Closing Thoughts
¨ 2017 will look very much like 2016
¨ Between 5.5-5.6 million existing home sales, and 650,000-700,000 new home sales
¨ Prices should rise 5-6%
¨ Inventory weak across the board
¨ Lackluster construction, underwater borrowers, declining distressed inventory
¨ Affordability may become a problem
¨ Prices continue to outpace wage growth
¨ Household formation slower than expected
¨ Lack of starter homes, generational tendencies, and credit availability may skew numbers towards rentals
¨ Latino buyers – the fastest growing segment – pose challenges for lenders
¨ Foreclosure crisis finally over
¨ Activity should be at normal levels by late 2017
¨ Possible that levels will dip below historical norms
¨ Note sales by GSEs, major lenders accelerating recovery
¨ Unlikely to hit “full recovery” until late 2018 at the earliest
Thank You!
Rick Sharga
Executive Vice President, Ten-X
rsharga@ten-x.com
@ricksharga

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2017 U.S. Economic & Housing Market Update

  • 1. WHERE REAL ESTATE IS MOVING 2017 U.S. Economic & Housing Market Update
  • 2. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 2 What We’ll Cover Today ¨ US Economic Overview ¨ Existing and New Home Sales ¨ State of the Foreclosure Market ¨ The Mortgage Market ¨ Closing Thoughts
  • 4. The Leading Online Real Estate Marketplace NUMBERS $46 Billion Of assets sold 275,000+ Assets sold INVESTORS MILESTONES 2007 Company founded 2016 Ten-X 2009 CRE platform
  • 5. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 5 The Ten-X Brand Family Our new name, Ten-X, reflects expansion of the services we’ll be delivering – and the much broader audience we plan to reach via three distinct lines of business. Dedicated to the sale of quality commercial properties via auction and more traditional methods A new platform created especially for consumers and agents, with a focus on move-in ready homes The nation’s largest online real estate marketplace, now exclusively focused on the sale of bank-owned and foreclosure properties
  • 7. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 7 GDP Stable, but Still Lags Historic Averages
  • 8. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 8 Inflation in Line with Market Expectations
  • 9. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 9 Unemployment Rate Continues to Improve
  • 10. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 10 Labor Force Participation Rate Still Historically Low
  • 11. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 11 And Part Time Employment Historically High
  • 12. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 12 Wage Growth Appears to be Steady
  • 13. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 13 And Consumer Confidence Highest Since 2000
  • 15. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 15 Existing Home Sales Ticking Up
  • 16. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 16 New Home Sales Improving, But Uneven
  • 17. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 17 Existing Home Inventory Historically Low
  • 18. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 18 New Home Inventory Improving, But Near 40-Year Low 18
  • 19. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 19 Housing Starts Improving…
  • 20. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 20 But Lagging Behind Prior Recoveries…
  • 21. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 21 …and Inflated by Multifamily Numbers
  • 22. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 22 Prices Continue to Rise, Outpacing Wage Growth
  • 23. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 23 And Affordability is Becoming More of a Concern 23
  • 24. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 24 Homeownership Rates Still Near 50-Year Low
  • 25. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 25 Even Though Household Formation Is Picking Up 25
  • 26. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 26 Student Loan Debt a Factor in Household Formation 26
  • 28. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 28 Delinquency Rates Continue to Fall
  • 29. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 29 Foreclosure Starts Declining Rapidly
  • 30. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 30 Monthly Foreclosure Activity Trending Down 30
  • 31. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 31 And Overall Foreclosure Activity Approaches Normal Levels
  • 32. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 32 Percentage of Loans in Foreclosure Lowest Since 2006
  • 33. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 33 Distressed & Cash Sales Declining, but Still Above Norm 33
  • 35. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 35 Mortgage Rates are Finally Rising…
  • 36. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 36 …But are Still Near Their Historic Lows
  • 37. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 37 Refinance Activity Falling Fast
  • 38. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 38 Purchase Activity May Not be Enough to Offset Drop
  • 39. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 39 But as Rates Rise, Credit May Loosen
  • 41. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 41 International Buyers Account for Over $100 Billion 41
  • 42. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 42 China, Canada Dominate Purchases
  • 43. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 43 But Interest is Strong from Around the World
  • 45. © 2016 Ten-X, LLC. Confidential & Proprietary 45 Closing Thoughts ¨ 2017 will look very much like 2016 ¨ Between 5.5-5.6 million existing home sales, and 650,000-700,000 new home sales ¨ Prices should rise 5-6% ¨ Inventory weak across the board ¨ Lackluster construction, underwater borrowers, declining distressed inventory ¨ Affordability may become a problem ¨ Prices continue to outpace wage growth ¨ Household formation slower than expected ¨ Lack of starter homes, generational tendencies, and credit availability may skew numbers towards rentals ¨ Latino buyers – the fastest growing segment – pose challenges for lenders ¨ Foreclosure crisis finally over ¨ Activity should be at normal levels by late 2017 ¨ Possible that levels will dip below historical norms ¨ Note sales by GSEs, major lenders accelerating recovery ¨ Unlikely to hit “full recovery” until late 2018 at the earliest
  • 46. Thank You! Rick Sharga Executive Vice President, Ten-X rsharga@ten-x.com @ricksharga