- The US economy grew 1% in Q2 2011, down from the previous estimate of 1.3%, and consumer confidence plunged to its lowest level since the recession.
- The Fed hinted that it is prepared to take further action but gave no clear signals on a third round of quantitative easing. There was also no consensus at the FOMC on what form future stimulus might take.
- Thailand's economy slowed in July due to weak global growth and high inventory levels, while inflation rose to 4.3% in August.
Present study questions the role of monetary policy in general and inflation targeting in particular with the help of important issues related to it and concludes that it is high time for a change. An irony of the inflation targeting is that price stability has amazingly been achieved in Canada simultaneously with an over-leveraged financial system and an over-exposed economy to the debt and assets. And also, the low policy rate regime under the framework has not been able to stop the investment from decline and the real economy from stagnation.
This commentary investigates how the targeted inflation rate has been achieved successfully amidst stagnant economic growth, declining domestic manufacturing, boiling asset economy, and piling financial vulnerabilities in the developed economies. It re-examines the modus operandi of the inflation targeting as an integral part of the management of the macroeconomy in these economies.
Mr. Tohru Sasaki, Managing Director and Head of Japan Rates and FX Research, JP Morgan was one of the keynote speakers at the Asia Business Forum, organised by London Business School's Asia Club, on 27 April 2013. He spoke about the economic policies advocated by Japan's Prime Minister and the implication that they have to the Asian economy.
Find out more about the Asia Club:
Website: https://clubs.london.edu/asiaclub
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LBS.AsiaClub
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LBSAsiaClub
Present study questions the role of monetary policy in general and inflation targeting in particular with the help of important issues related to it and concludes that it is high time for a change. An irony of the inflation targeting is that price stability has amazingly been achieved in Canada simultaneously with an over-leveraged financial system and an over-exposed economy to the debt and assets. And also, the low policy rate regime under the framework has not been able to stop the investment from decline and the real economy from stagnation.
This commentary investigates how the targeted inflation rate has been achieved successfully amidst stagnant economic growth, declining domestic manufacturing, boiling asset economy, and piling financial vulnerabilities in the developed economies. It re-examines the modus operandi of the inflation targeting as an integral part of the management of the macroeconomy in these economies.
Mr. Tohru Sasaki, Managing Director and Head of Japan Rates and FX Research, JP Morgan was one of the keynote speakers at the Asia Business Forum, organised by London Business School's Asia Club, on 27 April 2013. He spoke about the economic policies advocated by Japan's Prime Minister and the implication that they have to the Asian economy.
Find out more about the Asia Club:
Website: https://clubs.london.edu/asiaclub
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LBS.AsiaClub
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LBSAsiaClub
Fed must relent. Our expectations now is for a state dependent (global financial conditions to stabilise, cushion rising debt repayment burden and allowing domestic leverage to level off, coupled with still moderate economic growth/inflation, policy options to widen positively globally, especially in China) Fed relent with scope for a final 25-50bps, if any (pause otherwise), in late 2019/2020, should the cycle extents, with the FFR hitting cycle terminal at 2.75-3.00%.
Ivo Pezzuto - "FED BITES THE BULLET - Implements First Rate Hike in Nearly a ...Dr. Ivo Pezzuto
The US Federal Reserve finally bites the bullet, increasing the
FFR – a key short-term interest rate – by quarter of a per cent.
With this, the regulator has clearly signaled that it might take
similar actions in future, if need arises, to take the economy
towards full recovery.
The IMF has based much of it policies on a theoretical framework developed by Polak, Mundell, and Fleming over fifty years ago. Their models were based on a set of assumptions that a do not reflect the economic realities in the developing countries. The IMF’s insistence on demand management policies created policy “blind spots” that prevented it’s acknowledgment of causes of macroeconomic imbalances other than government fiscal mismanagement. There has been some movement toward reform by the Fund and better alignment with its sister organization, the World Bank. Just as the East Asian crisis momentum for change, recent events seem to have created a significant shift in the thinking of the Fund’s staff and policy analyst. The recent global crisis has caused the Fund to acknowledge the limits of monetary policy and bring fiscal policy “center stage” as an important countercyclical tool. In short, the crisis has “exposed flaws in the pre-crisis policy framework” [Carlos E. Guice, Sr.]
Fed must relent. Our expectations now is for a state dependent (global financial conditions to stabilise, cushion rising debt repayment burden and allowing domestic leverage to level off, coupled with still moderate economic growth/inflation, policy options to widen positively globally, especially in China) Fed relent with scope for a final 25-50bps, if any (pause otherwise), in late 2019/2020, should the cycle extents, with the FFR hitting cycle terminal at 2.75-3.00%.
Ivo Pezzuto - "FED BITES THE BULLET - Implements First Rate Hike in Nearly a ...Dr. Ivo Pezzuto
The US Federal Reserve finally bites the bullet, increasing the
FFR – a key short-term interest rate – by quarter of a per cent.
With this, the regulator has clearly signaled that it might take
similar actions in future, if need arises, to take the economy
towards full recovery.
The IMF has based much of it policies on a theoretical framework developed by Polak, Mundell, and Fleming over fifty years ago. Their models were based on a set of assumptions that a do not reflect the economic realities in the developing countries. The IMF’s insistence on demand management policies created policy “blind spots” that prevented it’s acknowledgment of causes of macroeconomic imbalances other than government fiscal mismanagement. There has been some movement toward reform by the Fund and better alignment with its sister organization, the World Bank. Just as the East Asian crisis momentum for change, recent events seem to have created a significant shift in the thinking of the Fund’s staff and policy analyst. The recent global crisis has caused the Fund to acknowledge the limits of monetary policy and bring fiscal policy “center stage” as an important countercyclical tool. In short, the crisis has “exposed flaws in the pre-crisis policy framework” [Carlos E. Guice, Sr.]
Bloomberg BRIEF Economics Asia is a new, groundbreaking daily publication written by six leading economists providing a clear, concise snapshot every morning of all the key regional economic information with proprietary data, charts and commentary, all for a fraction of the cost of providing it in-house.
Prepare For The Coming Stock Price InvasionEcon Matters
Based on the discussion in my previous article (visit my blog) on biflation for the next two years, I also see a potential drag on stock prices by margin squeeze with companies unable to pass through cost increases. In this presentation, I outlined this scenario with four investment strategies.
BT Financial Monthly Market Chart - January 2010BT Financial
BT Financial Monthly Markets Chart: January 2010. An overview of movements in global financial markets. Prepared by BT Wrap for the adviser market. Includes review of global share markets as well as Australian share market, dominant currencies, interest rates and both short and long term asset classes.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Lower than estimated numbers on manufacturing, international trade, whole sale inventories, and retail sales will likely push the second estimate of 1Q real GDP into the negative zone, from the first estimate of 0.2% to -0.7% q/q saar. In April, the Commerce Dept. reported factory orders dropped 0.4% and construction spending increased 2.2%. The BEA posted the trade deficit decreased in April. The ISM stated manufacturing further developed and services grew at a slower rate in May.
CRFB webinar - Where Does the Next Phase of COVID Relief Stand - July 31, 2020CRFBGraphics
Lawmakers on Capitol Hill have been negotiating over a new package of economic and public health support to combat COVID-19. Congress has already enacted $3.7 trillion of spending, tax cuts and deferrals, loans, and other fiscal aid, but some of this support is now expiring, particularly expanded unemployment benefits.
On July 31st, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget senior vice president Marc Goldwein presented a webinar titled "Where Does the Next Phase of COVID Relief Stand?" This slide deck was made to accompany that webinar.
The BEA reported, consumer spending rose 0.2% in June. The Commerce Dept. stated, construction spending increased 0.1% and factory orders rose 1.8% in June. The BEA reported the trade deficit increased in Junee
Acetabularia Information For Class 9 .docxvaibhavrinwa19
Acetabularia acetabulum is a single-celled green alga that in its vegetative state is morphologically differentiated into a basal rhizoid and an axially elongated stalk, which bears whorls of branching hairs. The single diploid nucleus resides in the rhizoid.
Francesca Gottschalk - How can education support child empowerment.pptxEduSkills OECD
Francesca Gottschalk from the OECD’s Centre for Educational Research and Innovation presents at the Ask an Expert Webinar: How can education support child empowerment?
Macroeconomics- Movie Location
This will be used as part of your Personal Professional Portfolio once graded.
Objective:
Prepare a presentation or a paper using research, basic comparative analysis, data organization and application of economic information. You will make an informed assessment of an economic climate outside of the United States to accomplish an entertainment industry objective.
A workshop hosted by the South African Journal of Science aimed at postgraduate students and early career researchers with little or no experience in writing and publishing journal articles.
Biological screening of herbal drugs: Introduction and Need for
Phyto-Pharmacological Screening, New Strategies for evaluating
Natural Products, In vitro evaluation techniques for Antioxidants, Antimicrobial and Anticancer drugs. In vivo evaluation techniques
for Anti-inflammatory, Antiulcer, Anticancer, Wound healing, Antidiabetic, Hepatoprotective, Cardio protective, Diuretics and
Antifertility, Toxicity studies as per OECD guidelines
June 3, 2024 Anti-Semitism Letter Sent to MIT President Kornbluth and MIT Cor...Levi Shapiro
Letter from the Congress of the United States regarding Anti-Semitism sent June 3rd to MIT President Sally Kornbluth, MIT Corp Chair, Mark Gorenberg
Dear Dr. Kornbluth and Mr. Gorenberg,
The US House of Representatives is deeply concerned by ongoing and pervasive acts of antisemitic
harassment and intimidation at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Failing to act decisively to ensure a safe learning environment for all students would be a grave dereliction of your responsibilities as President of MIT and Chair of the MIT Corporation.
This Congress will not stand idly by and allow an environment hostile to Jewish students to persist. The House believes that your institution is in violation of Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, and the inability or
unwillingness to rectify this violation through action requires accountability.
Postsecondary education is a unique opportunity for students to learn and have their ideas and beliefs challenged. However, universities receiving hundreds of millions of federal funds annually have denied
students that opportunity and have been hijacked to become venues for the promotion of terrorism, antisemitic harassment and intimidation, unlawful encampments, and in some cases, assaults and riots.
The House of Representatives will not countenance the use of federal funds to indoctrinate students into hateful, antisemitic, anti-American supporters of terrorism. Investigations into campus antisemitism by the Committee on Education and the Workforce and the Committee on Ways and Means have been expanded into a Congress-wide probe across all relevant jurisdictions to address this national crisis. The undersigned Committees will conduct oversight into the use of federal funds at MIT and its learning environment under authorities granted to each Committee.
• The Committee on Education and the Workforce has been investigating your institution since December 7, 2023. The Committee has broad jurisdiction over postsecondary education, including its compliance with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, campus safety concerns over disruptions to the learning environment, and the awarding of federal student aid under the Higher Education Act.
• The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is investigating the sources of funding and other support flowing to groups espousing pro-Hamas propaganda and engaged in antisemitic harassment and intimidation of students. The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is the principal oversight committee of the US House of Representatives and has broad authority to investigate “any matter” at “any time” under House Rule X.
• The Committee on Ways and Means has been investigating several universities since November 15, 2023, when the Committee held a hearing entitled From Ivory Towers to Dark Corners: Investigating the Nexus Between Antisemitism, Tax-Exempt Universities, and Terror Financing. The Committee followed the hearing with letters to those institutions on January 10, 202
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17Celine George
It is possible to hide or invisible some fields in odoo. Commonly using “invisible” attribute in the field definition to invisible the fields. This slide will show how to make a field invisible in odoo 17.
Read| The latest issue of The Challenger is here! We are thrilled to announce that our school paper has qualified for the NATIONAL SCHOOLS PRESS CONFERENCE (NSPC) 2024. Thank you for your unwavering support and trust. Dive into the stories that made us stand out!
2. Economic Update
• Last Friday, Bernanke speech could be summarized;
L t F id B k h ld b i d
– no hints on QE 3 from Fed and instead, pledged that Fed is "prepared to employ its tools as appropriate to
promote a stronger recovery".
– the September FOMC meeting will be extended to 2 days.
• Revised US GDP growth in Q2/2011 declined to 1% from 1.3%
d h / d l d f
• Consumer confidence plunged in August to 44.5 that is lowest since the 2007‐2009 recession.
(consensus 52.0, previous 59.2).
• FOMC, Mom of Aug, showed there was no clear consensus on what the stimulus would be.
FOMC, Mom of Aug, showed there was no clear consensus on what the stimulus would be.
– another round of asset purchases (QE3)
– Fed could shift the maturity of the assets it's buying to help drive mortgage rates lower.
– Fed could also cut the rate it pays banks on excess reserves deposited at the Fed, possibly incentivizing
banks to lend more.
banks to lend more.
– Fed could also buy long term asset indicating it would maintain the size of its balance sheet for a more
concrete time period.
Consumer Sentiment Survey GDP Growth and ISM index
3. Economic Update
• Economic Confidence in Aug was lower at 98.3
• Germany
– Unemployment rate was not changed at 7%
Unemployment rate was not changed at 7%
– German Chancellor approved measures which would allow EFSF to buy
government bonds and would increase its lending capacity.
Economic Sentiment and Industrial Production Unemployment Rate
4. Economic Update
2010 2011
• Thai Gov announced suspend the state Oil Q1 Q2 Jul Aug
Fund's levies on diesel and gasoline from Headline 3.30 3.01 4.10 4.08 4.29
Core 1.00 1.46 2.37 2.59 2.85
last Saturday would cut inflation by 0.5 PPI 9.40 6.40 5.80 5.20
percentage point.
percentage point. Policy Rate and Inflation
l d fl
– Finance Ministry's Fiscal Policy Office, said
that the policy interest rate should be lower
than the current 3.50%
• Headline and Core Inflation in Aug rose to
4.3% and 2.8% respectively.
• Thai Economy was slowdown in Jul due to
world economy and high inventory.
Manufacturing Production Index and CAPU USD/THB Movement
6. Expecting GDP
Global GDP 2009, USD 62 trn
Global GDP 2009 USD 62 trn Global GDP 2030, USD 129 trn
Global GDP 2030 USD 129 trn
Population change by region, 2010‐2030 Number of Patents
8. Economic update
• The S&P/Case‐Shiller index of home prices in 20 cities continued to see substantial fall of
4.5% yoy i J
4 5% in June, after a 4.6% drop in the 12 months ended in May.
ft 4 6% d i th 12 th d di M
• Personal Spending increased 0.8% in Jul from ‐0.1% in Jun.
• Pending Home Sales remain weak at ‐1.3%
9. Asia Market Update
• China
– PBOC may increase Reserve requirement ratio (existing 21.5%) due to
fighting inflation and calm down economy.
fi hti i fl ti d l d
– Increased Reserve requirement ratio 100‐150 bps equi remove liquidity RMB
900‐950 Bil.
• Japan
– Japan Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda has been selected to be new PM.
10. Thai Economic Update
• Q2 GDP was weaker than expect, lower at
k h l GDP Growth and GDP Contribution
GDP Growth and GDP Contribution
2.6%
– Supply Disruption ‐> Export
– Pre‐election Caution ‐> Investment
Pre election Caution > Investment
• GDP Forecast 2011 declined to 3.5‐4%
• Trade Surplus in Jul = 2.8 Bil. USD
– Export = 21.5 Bil. USD
Export = 21 5 Bil USD
– Import = 18.7 Bil.USD
Trade Balance is continuing surplus in Jul Consumer Confidence
11. Fluctuating THB
Due to Political Uncertainties and Global Risk Aversion
2011 Foreign Flows (Million Baht) and USDTHB
350,000 31
Somewhat clearer
Inflation domestic political
300,000 fears picture in July
30.5
30 5
250,000 Strong external
Political uncertainties
Balance, 4.271
prior to the July
Billion USD in Feb
general election
200,000 Solid growth
BOT’s tight MP 30
t
stance
150,000 Risk off
sentiment
100,000 in August 29.5
50,000
29
0
Jan
Feb
Apr
Mar
Jun
May
010
August
July
M
A
M
F
50 000
-50,000
J
20
J
28.5
-100,000
-150,000
-150 000 Stocks Bonds USDTHB (RHS) 28
11
Source: The Stock Exchange of Thailand, the Thai Bond Market Association, Bloomberg and SCB FM analysis
12. USD/THB Movement
Avg = 30.31
1 Mth
1 Mth 3 Mth
3 Mth 6 Mth
6 Mth
Spot 29.97 29.97 29.97
Swap point
pp 0.08 0.23 0.43
All in Rate 30.05 30.20 30.40
13. Quantitative easing (QE3)?
Possible but not very soon and might not be that helpful
y g p
“…that the recent economic weakness may prove more persistent than expected and that
deflationary risks might reemerge … another approach would be to initiate more securities
purchases … “
Source: July‐2011, Semi‐annual testimony to the congress
US real GDP growth: Weakness? US core inflation: Deflationary risk?
Unit: %QOQ SAAR Unit: %YOY
Start of QE2
Start f
St t of QE2
Source: SCB EIC analysis based on data from Bloomberg
13
14. Federal Reserve District
• Board of Governors & Reserve Bank Districts
• Board of Governors
• 1‐Boston
• 2‐New York
2 New York
• 3‐Philadelphia
• 4‐Cleveland
• 5‐Richmond
• 6‐Atlanta
• 7‐Chicago
• 8‐St. Louis
• 9‐Minneapolis
9 Minneapolis
• 10‐Kansas City
• 11‐Dallas
• 12‐San Francisco