Economists’ view on demographics or what economists should have learnt from demographers much earlier Conference, University of Warsaw, Osrodek Badan nad Migracjami

1. Economists’ view on demographics
Economists’ view on demographics
or what economists should have learnt from demographers much earlier
Joanna Tyrowicz
based on joint work with Krzysztof Makarski
FAME | GRAPE
University of Warsaw & Warsaw School of Economics
MigAgeing conference

2. Economists’ view on demographics
Before we begin
... about a year ago, there was a conference in honor of Marek Okolski

3. Economists’ view on demographics
Before we begin
... about a year ago, there was a conference in honor of Marek Okolski, but I
could not be there to pay respect ...
Marek Okolski:

4. Economists’ view on demographics
Before we begin
... about a year ago, there was a conference in honor of Marek Okolski, but I
could not be there to pay respect ...
Marek Okolski:
systematically generates the “wow” effect

5. Economists’ view on demographics
Before we begin
... about a year ago, there was a conference in honor of Marek Okolski, but I
could not be there to pay respect ...
Marek Okolski:
systematically generates the “wow” effect

6. Economists’ view on demographics
Before we begin
... about a year ago, there was a conference in honor of Marek Okolski, but I
could not be there to pay respect ...
Marek Okolski:
systematically generates the “wow” effect
made contributions that matter

7. Economists’ view on demographics
Before we begin
... about a year ago, there was a conference in honor of Marek Okolski, but I
could not be there to pay respect ...
Marek Okolski:
systematically generates the “wow” effect
made contributions that matter

8. Economists’ view on demographics
Before we begin
... about a year ago, there was a conference in honor of Marek Okolski, but I
could not be there to pay respect ...
Marek Okolski:
systematically generates the “wow” effect
made contributions that matter
and changed lives of his colleagues

9. Economists’ view on demographics
Before we begin
... about a year ago, there was a conference in honor of Marek Okolski, but I
could not be there to pay respect ...
Marek Okolski:
systematically generates the “wow” effect
made contributions that matter
and changed lives of his colleagues

10. Economists’ view on demographics
Before we begin
... about a year ago, there was a conference in honor of Marek Okolski, but I
could not be there to pay respect ...
Marek Okolski:
systematically generates the “wow” effect
made contributions that matter
and changed lives of his colleagues
⇒ what economists should have learnt from demographers – plenty

11. Economists’ view on demographics
Before we begin
... about a year ago, there was a conference in honor of Marek Okolski, but I
could not be there to pay respect ...
Marek Okolski:
systematically generates the “wow” effect
made contributions that matter
and changed lives of his colleagues
⇒ what economists should have learnt from demographers – plenty
⇒ what I should have learnt from Marek – way more

12. Economists’ view on demographics
My talk today
A series of studies with the role of demographics

13. Economists’ view on demographics
My talk today
A series of studies with the role of demographics in economic and welfare
effects

14. Economists’ view on demographics
My talk today
A series of studies with the role of demographics in economic and welfare
effects
Pension reform: defined benefit → defined contribution

15. Economists’ view on demographics
My talk today
A series of studies with the role of demographics in economic and welfare
effects
Pension reform: defined benefit → defined contribution
Retirement age reform

16. Economists’ view on demographics
My talk today
A series of studies with the role of demographics in economic and welfare
effects
Pension reform: defined benefit → defined contribution
Retirement age reform
Inequality of wealth and consumption

17. Economists’ view on demographics
The tool
Model overview
OLG model with endogenous labor and savings

18. Economists’ view on demographics
The tool
Model overview
OLG model with endogenous labor and savings
Heterogeneity across cohorts (mortality and labor productivity)

19. Economists’ view on demographics
The tool
Model overview
OLG model with endogenous labor and savings
Heterogeneity across cohorts (mortality and labor productivity)
In one study: heterogeneity within cohorts (preferences and abilities)

20. Economists’ view on demographics
The tool
Model overview
OLG model with endogenous labor and savings
Heterogeneity across cohorts (mortality and labor productivity)
In one study: heterogeneity within cohorts (preferences and abilities)

21. Economists’ view on demographics
The tool
Model overview
OLG model with endogenous labor and savings
Heterogeneity across cohorts (mortality and labor productivity)
In one study: heterogeneity within cohorts (preferences and abilities)
Competitive producers with CD production function

22. Economists’ view on demographics
The tool
Model overview
OLG model with endogenous labor and savings
Heterogeneity across cohorts (mortality and labor productivity)
In one study: heterogeneity within cohorts (preferences and abilities)
Competitive producers with CD production function
Pension system + pension system reform

23. Economists’ view on demographics
The tool
Model overview
OLG model with endogenous labor and savings
Heterogeneity across cohorts (mortality and labor productivity)
In one study: heterogeneity within cohorts (preferences and abilities)
Competitive producers with CD production function
Pension system + pension system reform
Inter-generational transfers + utility to compare welfare across time with
changing demographics

24. Economists’ view on demographics
The tool
Model overview
OLG model with endogenous labor and savings
Heterogeneity across cohorts (mortality and labor productivity)
In one study: heterogeneity within cohorts (preferences and abilities)
Competitive producers with CD production function
Pension system + pension system reform
Inter-generational transfers + utility to compare welfare across time with
changing demographics

25. Economists’ view on demographics
The tool
Model overview
OLG model with endogenous labor and savings
Heterogeneity across cohorts (mortality and labor productivity)
In one study: heterogeneity within cohorts (preferences and abilities)
Competitive producers with CD production function
Pension system + pension system reform
Inter-generational transfers + utility to compare welfare across time with
changing demographics
Calibrated to the Polish economy

26. Economists’ view on demographics
The tool
Consumers
Are free to choose how much to work

27. Economists’ view on demographics
The tool
Consumers
Are free to choose how much to work
Die with certitude at J, but have a non-zero probability of dying before

28. Economists’ view on demographics
The tool
Consumers
Are free to choose how much to work
Die with certitude at J, but have a non-zero probability of dying before
Optimize lifetime utility derived from leisure and consumption
Uj(cj,t, 1−lj,t) = uj(cj,t, 1−lj,t)+
J−j
s=1
δs πj+s,t+s
πj,t
u (cj+s,t+s, 1 − lj+s,t+s)
(1)
subject to

29. Economists’ view on demographics
The tool
Consumers
Are free to choose how much to work
Die with certitude at J, but have a non-zero probability of dying before
Optimize lifetime utility derived from leisure and consumption
Uj(cj,t, 1−lj,t) = uj(cj,t, 1−lj,t)+
J−j
s=1
δs πj+s,t+s
πj,t
u (cj+s,t+s, 1 − lj+s,t+s)
(1)
subject to

30. Economists’ view on demographics
The tool
Consumers
Are free to choose how much to work
Die with certitude at J, but have a non-zero probability of dying before
Optimize lifetime utility derived from leisure and consumption
Uj(cj,t, 1−lj,t) = uj(cj,t, 1−lj,t)+
J−j
s=1
δs πj+s,t+s
πj,t
u (cj+s,t+s, 1 − lj+s,t+s)
(1)
subject to
(1 + τc,t)cj,t + sj,t + τj + υt = (1 − τι
j,t − τl,t)wj,tlj,t ← labor income
+ (1 + rt(1 − τk,t))sj,t−1 ← capital income
+ (1 − τl,t)pι,j,t + bj,t ← pensions + bequests
where u(c, l) = φ log(c) + (1 − φ) log(1 − l)

31. Economists’ view on demographics
The tool
Producers
maximize
Yt − wtLt − (rk
t + d)Kt subject to Yt = Kα
t (ztLt)1−α
where the path of {z}∞
t=0 is exogenous (calibrated to AWG, by EC)

32. Economists’ view on demographics
The tool
Public finance
SIF collects social security contributions and pays out pensions
subsidyt = τι
t · wtLt −
J
j= ¯J
bj,tπj,tNt−j (2)
any debt/surplus in SIF is government debt/surplus

33. Economists’ view on demographics
The tool
Public finance
SIF collects social security contributions and pays out pensions
subsidyt = τι
t · wtLt −
J
j= ¯J
bj,tπj,tNt−j (2)
any debt/surplus in SIF is government debt/surplus
Government
collects taxes on earnings, interest and consumption + Υ
spends fixed amount of GDP/money + services debt
long run debt/GDP ratio fixed
to finance pension system can use taxes or debt ⇐ fiscal closures

34. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 1 – pension system reform
Outline for section 2
1 The tool
2 Study 1 – pension system reform
3 Study 2 – changing the retirement age
4 Study 3 - inequality
5 Concluding comments

35. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 1 – pension system reform
Study 1 – pension system reform

36. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 1 – pension system reform
Study 1 – pension system reform
Questions
Is the change from DB to DC good for the economy?
Is it good for people?
Can we make it better / worse, by how we finance the reform?

37. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 1 – pension system reform
Study 1 – pension system reform
Questions
Is the change from DB to DC good for the economy?
Is it good for people?
Can we make it better / worse, by how we finance the reform?
How do we know what is "better"?
1 Run the no policy change scenario ⇒ baseline

38. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 1 – pension system reform
Study 1 – pension system reform
Questions
Is the change from DB to DC good for the economy?
Is it good for people?
Can we make it better / worse, by how we finance the reform?
How do we know what is "better"?
1 Run the no policy change scenario ⇒ baseline
2 Run the policy change scenario ⇒ reform

39. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 1 – pension system reform
Study 1 – pension system reform
Questions
Is the change from DB to DC good for the economy?
Is it good for people?
Can we make it better / worse, by how we finance the reform?
How do we know what is "better"?
1 Run the no policy change scenario ⇒ baseline
2 Run the policy change scenario ⇒ reform
3 For each cohort compare utility, compensate the losers from the winners

40. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 1 – pension system reform
Study 1 – pension system reform
Questions
Is the change from DB to DC good for the economy?
Is it good for people?
Can we make it better / worse, by how we finance the reform?
How do we know what is "better"?
1 Run the no policy change scenario ⇒ baseline
2 Run the policy change scenario ⇒ reform
3 For each cohort compare utility, compensate the losers from the winners
4 If net effect positive ⇒ reform efficient

41. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 1 – pension system reform
Pension systems
initial steady state: PAYG Defined Benefit (DB), τι
t = τDB

42. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 1 – pension system reform
Pension systems
initial steady state: PAYG Defined Benefit (DB), τι
t = τDB
after the original reform: NDC + FDC (two pillars) τ = τI
+ τII

43. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 1 – pension system reform
Pension systems
initial steady state: PAYG Defined Benefit (DB), τι
t = τDB
after the original reform: NDC + FDC (two pillars) τ = τI
+ τII
NDC = contributions indexed with growth of payroll + benefit actuarially
fair + post retirement indexation with 25% of payroll growth

44. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 1 – pension system reform
Pension systems
initial steady state: PAYG Defined Benefit (DB), τι
t = τDB
after the original reform: NDC + FDC (two pillars) τ = τI
+ τII
NDC = contributions indexed with growth of payroll + benefit actuarially
fair + post retirement indexation with 25% of payroll growth
FDC = contributions earn interest + benefit actuarially fair + post
retirement also earn full interest

45. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 1 – pension system reform
Calibration
Take the full demographic projection

46. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 1 – pension system reform
Calibration
Take the full demographic projection
Replicate in the initial steady state the features of ‘true world’
Preference for leisure (φ) matches participation rate of 56.8%
Replacement rate (ρ) matches benefits/GDP ratio of 5%
Contributions rate (τ) matches SIF deficit/GDP ratio of 0.8%
Labor income tax (τl) set to 11% to match PIT/GDP ratio
Consumption tax (τc) set to match VAT/GDP ratio
Capital tax (τk) de iure = de facto

47. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 1 – pension system reform
Baseline (outcomes): pension benefits % in GDP

48. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 1 – pension system reform
Efficiency of the reforms
baseline closure
reform closure Υ τc τl debt + τc debt + τl
Υ 2.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.3% 2.5%
τc 1.7% 2.0% 2.2% 1.9% 2.1%
debt + τc 1.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.0% 2.2%
τl 1.5% 1.9% 2.1% 1.8% 2.0%
debt + τl 1.6% 2.0% 2.2% 1.9% 2.1%

49. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 1 – pension system reform
Welfare effects – distribution across cohorts

50. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 1 – pension system reform
Generally, 1999 reform improved welfare
Majority of the overall effects come from demographics

51. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 1 – pension system reform
Generally, 1999 reform improved welfare
Majority of the overall effects come from demographics
Majority of the econoimc come from DB->DC change

52. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 1 – pension system reform
Generally, 1999 reform improved welfare
Majority of the overall effects come from demographics
Majority of the econoimc come from DB->DC change

53. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 1 – pension system reform
Generally, 1999 reform improved welfare
Majority of the overall effects come from demographics
Majority of the econoimc come from DB->DC change
Pensions fall → considerable redistribution across cohorts needed

54. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 1 – pension system reform
Generally, 1999 reform improved welfare
Majority of the overall effects come from demographics
Majority of the econoimc come from DB->DC change
Pensions fall → considerable redistribution across cohorts needed
Fiscal closures matter a lot for the final evaluation & distribution

55. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 1 – pension system reform
Generally, 1999 reform improved welfare
Majority of the overall effects come from demographics
Majority of the econoimc come from DB->DC change
Pensions fall → considerable redistribution across cohorts needed
Fiscal closures matter a lot for the final evaluation & distribution

56. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 1 – pension system reform
Generally, 1999 reform improved welfare
Majority of the overall effects come from demographics
Majority of the econoimc come from DB->DC change
Pensions fall → considerable redistribution across cohorts needed
Fiscal closures matter a lot for the final evaluation & distribution
Introduction of funded DC makes debt desirable (redistributes)

57. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 2 – changing the retirement age
My talk today
1 The tool
2 Study 1 – pension system reform
3 Study 2 – changing the retirement age
4 Study 3 - inequality
5 Concluding comments

58. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 2 – changing the retirement age
Study 2 – changing the retirement age

59. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 2 – changing the retirement age
Study 2 – changing the retirement age
We increase retirement age...
how the macroeconomic effects differ between various pension systems?

60. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 2 – changing the retirement age
Study 2 – changing the retirement age
We increase retirement age...
how the macroeconomic effects differ between various pension systems?
what happens to the welfare of different generations?

61. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 2 – changing the retirement age
Study 2 – changing the retirement age
We increase retirement age...
how the macroeconomic effects differ between various pension systems?
what happens to the welfare of different generations?

62. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 2 – changing the retirement age
Study 2 – changing the retirement age
We increase retirement age...
how the macroeconomic effects differ between various pension systems?
what happens to the welfare of different generations?
Expectations
under DB: leisure ↓, taxes ↓, welfare?
under NDC: leisure ↓, pensions ↑, welfare?
under FDC: leisure ↓, pensions ↑ more than NDC, welfare?
+ Labor supply adjustments, general equilibrium effects...

63. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 2 – changing the retirement age
Demographic scenarios

64. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 2 – changing the retirement age
Demographic scenarios
Total 20-year-olds

65. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 2 – changing the retirement age
Welfare effects of the reform, in consumption equivalent terms
DB NDC FDC

66. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 2 – changing the retirement age
Welfare effects

67. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 2 – changing the retirement age
Subsidy as % of GDP

68. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 2 – changing the retirement age
Labour tax

69. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 2 – changing the retirement age
Labor supply effects of the reform
Baseline Reform scenario
overall j < 60 j ≥ 60 Total
LFP LFP baseline=100 LFP baseline=100
DB 57.9% 58.1% 100.2% 58.1% 117.3%
NDC 58.8% 58.2% 99.0% 58.2% 115.9%
FDC 59.8% 58.9% 98.4% 58.9% 115.2%

70. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 2 – changing the retirement age
Conclusions
extending the retirement age is universally welfare improving
agents adjust downwards the average labor supply, but the aggregated
supply increases
lower savings imply decrease in per capita capital and output

71. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 3 - inequality
My talk today
1 The tool
2 Study 1 – pension system reform
3 Study 2 – changing the retirement age
4 Study 3 - inequality
5 Concluding comments

72. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 3 - inequality
Study 3 - inequality
Wealth inequality increases due to:
Demographic transition
Pension reform: defined benefit → defined contribution
Effects for consumption inequality: unclear

73. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 3 - inequality
Study 3 - inequality
Wealth inequality increases due to:
Demographic transition
Pension reform: defined benefit → defined contribution
Effects for consumption inequality: unclear
Can policy instruments help?
minimum pensions: ↑ pensions; ↓ labor supply incentives
lump sum indexation: more redistribution among retirees
Intuition insufficient

74. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 3 - inequality
Our approach
Question 1: distributional effects of a pension system reform
Question 2: are standard instruments effective in reducing the increase in
inequality

75. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 3 - inequality
Our approach
Question 1: distributional effects of a pension system reform
Question 2: are standard instruments effective in reducing the increase in
inequality
Ex ante heterogeneous agents: age + within cohort
endowments + preferences ← not a stand
separate endowments from preferences
most countries: no data on mortality by education / income groups

76. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 3 - inequality
Households – what is new
On top of demographics, agents belong to a type k:
productivity level ω
time discounting δ
relative leisure preference φ
Choose labor supply l endogenously
Maximize remaining lifetime utility derived from consumption c and leisure
1 − l:
Uj,k,t =
J−j
s=0
δs
k
πj+s,t+s
πj,t
c
φk
j+s,k,t+s (1 − lj+s,k,t+s)1−φk

77. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 3 - inequality
Households –what is new?
Subject to the budget constraint
(1 + τc
t )cj,k,t + sj,k,t = (1 − τl
t )(1 − τ)wtωklj,k,t ← labor income
+ (1 + (1 − τk
t )rt)sj−1,k,t−1 ← capital income
+ (1 − τl
t )bj,k,t ← pension income
+ beqj,k,t ← bequests
− Υt ← lump-sum tax
There exists a closed-form solution to this problem

78. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 3 - inequality
Government
Spends a fixed share of GDP (g) on government consumption
Collects taxes T
Closes the gap between pension system contributions and benefits
Can take on debt D (fixed share in GDP)

79. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 3 - inequality
Government
Spends a fixed share of GDP (g) on government consumption
Collects taxes T
Closes the gap between pension system contributions and benefits
Can take on debt D (fixed share in GDP)
Pension System
Pay As You Go Defined Benefit (PAYG DB)
b ¯J,k,t = ρ · gross wage ¯J−1,k,t−1

80. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 3 - inequality
Government
Spends a fixed share of GDP (g) on government consumption
Collects taxes T
Closes the gap between pension system contributions and benefits
Can take on debt D (fixed share in GDP)
Pension System
Pay As You Go Defined Benefit (PAYG DB)
b ¯J,k,t = ρ · gross wage ¯J−1,k,t−1
Pay As You Go Defined Contribution (PAYG DC)
b ¯J,k,t =
accumulated sum of contributions ¯J,k,t
expected remaining lifetime ¯J,t
Pensions indexed by the rate of annual payroll growth

81. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 3 - inequality
Instruments
Minimum pensions (set ρmin = 0.2 → 4% coverage, consistent with the data):
bj,k,t ≥ ρmin · gross average waget

82. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 3 - inequality
Instruments
Minimum pensions (set ρmin = 0.2 → 4% coverage, consistent with the data):
bj,k,t ≥ ρmin · gross average waget
Expectations
Increases lifetime incomes of targeted group → consumption inequality ↓
Lower incentives to work → possible reduction in hours worked
Lower incentives for private savings → possible increase in consumption

83. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 3 - inequality
Instruments
Minimum pensions (set ρmin = 0.2 → 4% coverage, consistent with the data):
bj,k,t ≥ ρmin · gross average waget
Expectations
Increases lifetime incomes of targeted group → consumption inequality ↓
Lower incentives to work → possible reduction in hours worked
Lower incentives for private savings → possible increase in consumption
Lump sum indexation
Compute the total indexation fund & redistribute among all retirees equally

84. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 3 - inequality
Instruments
Minimum pensions (set ρmin = 0.2 → 4% coverage, consistent with the data):
bj,k,t ≥ ρmin · gross average waget
Expectations
Increases lifetime incomes of targeted group → consumption inequality ↓
Lower incentives to work → possible reduction in hours worked
Lower incentives for private savings → possible increase in consumption
Lump sum indexation
Compute the total indexation fund & redistribute among all retirees equally
Expectations
Higher pension benefits of low earning individuals → lower voluntary savings
of high earnign individuals → wealth inequality ↑

85. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 3 - inequality
Within cohort heterogeneity - endowments
Structure of Earnings Survey, 1998, Poland
Productivity ω
Resulting: 10 values for ω

86. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 3 - inequality
Within cohort heterogeneity - leisure preference
Structure of Earnings Survey, 1998, Poland
Leisure preference φ
Resulting: 4 values for φ

87. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 3 - inequality
Within cohort heterogeneity - time preference
Again: no data on mortality rates or wealth by income or education groups
Calibrate the central value of δ to match the investment rate
Split population ad hoc to 3 groups:
to match the wealth inequality Gini (HFCN)
discount factors are (0.998δ, δ, 1.002δ)

88. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 3 - inequality
Within cohort heterogeneity - summary outcomes I
In total we have 120 types within each cohort
The resulting consumption Gini index in the initial steady state is 25.5,
consistent with Brzezinski (2011)

89. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 3 - inequality
Within cohort heterogeneity - summary outcomes II

90. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 3 - inequality
Within cohort heterogeneity - summary outcomes III

91. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 3 - inequality
Minimum pensions coverage

92. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 3 - inequality
Old age poverty

93. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 3 - inequality
And this is how much it will cost

94. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 3 - inequality
Consumption Gini

95. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 3 - inequality
Wealth Gini

96. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 3 - inequality
Wealth Gini at retirement I

97. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 3 - inequality
Wealth Gini at retirement II

98. Economists’ view on demographics
Study 3 - inequality
Summary of results
Consumption inequality increase due to
aging processes (mostly)
DB→DC reform (on top of that)
Minimum pensions
effective in reducing consumption inequality resulting from the DB→DC
reform by 40-50%
high coverage and high cost + wealth inequality ↑
Lump sum indexation has virtually no effects

99. Economists’ view on demographics
Concluding comments
My talk today
1 The tool
2 Study 1 – pension system reform
3 Study 2 – changing the retirement age
4 Study 3 - inequality
5 Concluding comments

100. Economists’ view on demographics
Concluding comments
Economists’ view on demographics
Demographics is a super-big force
Fiscal and macroeconomic effects

101. Economists’ view on demographics
Concluding comments
Economists’ view on demographics
Demographics is a super-big force
Fiscal and macroeconomic effects
Behavioral patterns, inequality and welfare

102. Economists’ view on demographics
Concluding comments
Economists’ view on demographics
Demographics is a super-big force
Fiscal and macroeconomic effects
Behavioral patterns, inequality and welfare
Much of the today’s focus: aging

103. Economists’ view on demographics
Concluding comments
Economists’ view on demographics
Demographics is a super-big force
Fiscal and macroeconomic effects
Behavioral patterns, inequality and welfare
Much of the today’s focus: aging
What else do we do:
how effective the fertility policy would have to be to pay off?

104. Economists’ view on demographics
Concluding comments
Economists’ view on demographics
Demographics is a super-big force
Fiscal and macroeconomic effects
Behavioral patterns, inequality and welfare
Much of the today’s focus: aging
What else do we do:
how effective the fertility policy would have to be to pay off?
what is the long term viability of immigration for labor supply?

105. Economists’ view on demographics
Concluding comments
Economists’ view on demographics
Demographics is a super-big force
Fiscal and macroeconomic effects
Behavioral patterns, inequality and welfare
Much of the today’s focus: aging
What else do we do:
how effective the fertility policy would have to be to pay off?
what is the long term viability of immigration for labor supply?
what are the short and long term effects of emigration?

106. Economists’ view on demographics
Concluding comments
Economists’ view on demographics
Demographics is a super-big force
Fiscal and macroeconomic effects
Behavioral patterns, inequality and welfare
Much of the today’s focus: aging
What else do we do:
how effective the fertility policy would have to be to pay off?
what is the long term viability of immigration for labor supply?
what are the short and long term effects of emigration?
which inequality: cross-section vs. within cohort

107. Economists’ view on demographics
Concluding comments
Questions?
Thank you for your attention!
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