The document provides forecasts for the UK economy from 2005 to 2015. It includes forecasts for key economic indicators such as GDP, inflation, earnings, unemployment, interest rates, oil prices, government borrowing, manufacturing, retail sales, house prices, and exchange rates. The forecasts are based on assumptions of continued growth in China and the US, and avoidance of a collapse in the Eurozone.

1. sponsored by
Economics Update
Dr John Ashcroft
The UK Economy in Black and White
2005 - 2015 Forecasts

2. GDP
Inflation CPI
Earnings - whole economy
Unemployment - claimant count
The UK Economy in Black and White
2005 - 2015 Forecasts
Unemployment - LFS basis
Base Rates
Ten Year Gilts
Oil Price - Brent crude
PSNBR £
PSNBR %
Manufacturing
Retail Sales
On line sales
Trade in Goods
Trade in Services
Overall Balance
House Prices
Exchange Rates
John Ashcroft .co.uk
Exogenous Assumptions : Growth in China - USA recovery - no Euro collapse February 2013

3. World GDP
The trend rate of growth is 2.7%
Data from World
Bank, OECD and
% change year on year
IMF
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

4. World GDP
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
World 2.7 2.3 2.4 3.1 3.3
Euro 1.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.9 1.4
USA 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.0
China 9.3 7.9 8.4 8.0 7.9
Japan -0.7 1.9 0.8 1.2 1.5
Brazil 2.7 0.9 3.4 4.1 4.0
Russia 4.3 3.5 3.6 3.9 3.8
India 6.9 5.1 6.1 6.8 7.0
Turkey 8.5 2.9 4.0 4.5 5.0
Indonesia 6.5 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.6
Mexico 3.9 4.0 3.3 3.6 3.6
Data from World
Bank, OECD and
% change year on year
IMF
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

5. World Trade
The trend rate of growth is 5.5%
Trade Multiplier 2.0
2012 2013 2014 2015
OBR 3.0 4.4 5.9
Estimate 2.5 5.5 6.5 6.7
Data from World Bank
and Netherlands World
Trade Data % change year on year
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

6. UK GDP
% change year on year
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

7. UK GDP
UK GDP (O) Index R 2.4
%
LT
Output Gap
11%
te 1.0%
Trend Ra
%
e 2. 9
R at
d
en
Tr
% change year on year
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

8. UK Inflation CPI
% change year on year
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

9. UK Inflation RPI
% change year on year
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

10. UK Inflation Manufacturing Prices (O)
% change year on year
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

11. UK Inflation Manufacturing Prices (I)
% change year on year
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

12. UK Earnings
% change year on year
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

13. UK Real Earnings (CPI basis)
% change year on year
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

14. UK Unemployment - claimant count
000s
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

15. UK Unemployment - LFS basis 000
000s
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

16. UK Unemployment - LFS basis %
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

17. Interest Rates - UK Base rate
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

18. Interest Rates - Ten Year Gilt Rates
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

19. Oil Prices - Brent Crude $
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

20. Government Borrowing PSNBR £
excludes pension fund and gilt transfers £000
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

21. Government Borrowing PSNBR % GDP
% GDP
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

22. Government Borrowing £million
2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
35.1 35.8 36.4 44.5 53.1 60.4 66.8 72.3 75.9 78.1
% of GDP
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

23. Manufacturing % GDP(O) Q4
% change year on year
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

24. Construction % GDP(O) Q4
% change year on year
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

25. Service Sector % GDP(O) Q4
Distribution Transport Business Non Govt Govt
2009 -4.3 -6.1 -3.7 -4.3 2.7
2010 1.4 1.4 0.8 1.1 0.6
2011 0.9 0.9 1.8 1.4 1.0
2012 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.0 2.0
Hotels Leisure Storage,Comms Financial
% change year on year
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

26. Retail Sales
% change year on year
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

27. UK Car Sales Million
% change year on year
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

28. Retail Sales - online
% of total retail sales
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

29. Trade in Goods Deficit £ billions
£ billions chain linked series
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

30. Trade in Services Surplus £ billions
£ billions chain linked series
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

31. Trade in Goods and Services £ billions
£ billions chain linked series
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

32. House Prices - UK
% change on prior year
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

33. House Prices - UK
% change on prior year
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

34. Mortgage Activity - UK
£ Billions
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

35. Nationwide House Price Index
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

36. Mortgage Activity - UK
% change on prior year
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

37. Mortgage Activity - UK
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

38. Mortgage Activity - UK
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

39. Mortgage Activity - UK
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

40. Mortgage Activity - UK
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

41. Exchange Rates
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

42. Exchange Rates
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

43. Exchange Rates
Sterling is expected to hold against the dollar
and appreciate slightly against the Euro as
interest rate spreads narrow and Euroland
worries persist
Further dollar weakness against the Renminbi is
expected.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
£:$ 2.00 1.85 1.57 1.55 1.61 1.58 1.56 1.56 1.56
£:€ 1.46 1.26 1.12 1.17 1.15 1.23 1.26 1.28 1.28
£: ¥ 235.6 191.3 146.9 136.1 128.6 126.5 112.3 107.6 103.1
$: € 1.37 1.47 1.40 1.32 1.39 1.28 1.25 1.22 1.22
¥:$ 117.8 103.4 93.6 87.8 79.9 79.8 72.0 69.0 66.1
Yuan:$ 7.61 6.95 6.83 6.77 6.47 6.47 6.25 6.00 5.75
¥:Yuan 15.48 14.88 13.70 12.96 12.35 11.59 11.52 11.50 11.49
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

44. Exchange Rates
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

45. Exchange Rates
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

46. Exchange Rates
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

47. Stock Market Dividend Payments UK
£ billions
e e f f f
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

48. Greater Manchester GVA 000
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013

49. GDP
Inflation CPI
Earnings - whole economy
Unemployment - claimant count
Unemployment - LFS basis
Base Rates
Ten Year Gilts
Oil Price - Brent crude
PSNBR £
PSNBR %
Manufacturing
The UK Economy in Black and White
Retail Sales
On line sales
Trade in Goods
Trade in Services
Overall Balance 2005 - 2015 Forecasts
House Prices
Exchange Rates
The material is based upon information which we
consider to be reliable but we do not represent that
it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied
John Ashcroft is Chief Executive of upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or
pro.manchester, a director of Marketing omissions of opinion or fact.
Manchester and a visiting professor at MMU
Business School specialising in Macro In particular, no reliance should be placed on the
Economics and Corporate Strategy. comments or trends in financial markets. The
publication of this document should not be
Educated at the London School of Economics construed as the giving of investment advice.
and London Business School with a PhD in
macro economics from MMU.
www.johnashcroft.co.uk
Exogenous Assumptions : Growth in China - USA recovery - no Euro collapse February 2013