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Economicsupdate
The document provides forecasts for the UK economy from 2005 to 2015. It includes forecasts for key economic indicators such as GDP, inflation, earnings, unemployment, interest rates, oil prices, government borrowing, manufacturing, retail sales, house prices, and exchange rates. The forecasts are based on assumptions of continued growth in China and the US, and avoidance of a collapse in the Eurozone.
Economicsupdate
- 1. sponsored by Economics Update Dr John Ashcroft The UK Economy in Black and White 2005 - 2015 Forecasts
- 2. GDP InflationCPI Earnings - whole economy Unemployment - claimant count The UK Economy in Black and White 2005 - 2015 Forecasts Unemployment - LFS basis Base Rates Ten Year Gilts Oil Price - Brent crude PSNBR £ PSNBR % Manufacturing Retail Sales On line sales Trade in Goods Trade in Services Overall Balance House Prices Exchange Rates John Ashcroft .co.uk Exogenous Assumptions : Growth in China - USA recovery - no Euro collapse February 2013
- 3. World GDP The trend rate of growth is 2.7% Data from World Bank, OECD and % change year on year IMF The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 4. World GDP 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 World 2.7 2.3 2.4 3.1 3.3 Euro 1.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.9 1.4 USA 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.0 China 9.3 7.9 8.4 8.0 7.9 Japan -0.7 1.9 0.8 1.2 1.5 Brazil 2.7 0.9 3.4 4.1 4.0 Russia 4.3 3.5 3.6 3.9 3.8 India 6.9 5.1 6.1 6.8 7.0 Turkey 8.5 2.9 4.0 4.5 5.0 Indonesia 6.5 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.6 Mexico 3.9 4.0 3.3 3.6 3.6 Data from World Bank, OECD and % change year on year IMF The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 5. World Trade The trend rate of growth is 5.5% Trade Multiplier 2.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 OBR 3.0 4.4 5.9 Estimate 2.5 5.5 6.5 6.7 Data from World Bank and Netherlands World Trade Data % change year on year The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 6. UK GDP % change year on year The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 7. UK GDP UK GDP (O) Index R 2.4 % LT Output Gap 11% te 1.0% Trend Ra % e 2. 9 R at d en Tr % change year on year The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 8. UK Inflation CPI % change year on year The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 9. UK Inflation RPI % change year on year The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 10. UK Inflation ManufacturingPrices (O) % change year on year The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 11. UK Inflation ManufacturingPrices (I) % change year on year The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 12. UK Earnings % change year on year The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 13. UK Real Earnings(CPI basis) % change year on year The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 14. UK Unemployment -claimant count 000s The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 15. UK Unemployment -LFS basis 000 000s The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 16. UK Unemployment -LFS basis % The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 17. Interest Rates -UK Base rate The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 18. Interest Rates -Ten Year Gilt Rates The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 19. Oil Prices -Brent Crude $ The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 20. Government Borrowing PSNBR£ excludes pension fund and gilt transfers £000 The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 21. Government Borrowing PSNBR% GDP % GDP The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 22. Government Borrowing £million 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 35.1 35.8 36.4 44.5 53.1 60.4 66.8 72.3 75.9 78.1 % of GDP The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 23. Manufacturing % GDP(O) Q4 % change year on year The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 24. Construction % GDP(O) Q4 % change year on year The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 25. Service Sector % GDP(O) Q4 Distribution Transport Business Non Govt Govt 2009 -4.3 -6.1 -3.7 -4.3 2.7 2010 1.4 1.4 0.8 1.1 0.6 2011 0.9 0.9 1.8 1.4 1.0 2012 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.0 2.0 Hotels Leisure Storage,Comms Financial % change year on year The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 26. Retail Sales % change year on year The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 27. UK Car SalesMillion % change year on year The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 28. Retail Sales -online % of total retail sales The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 29. Trade in GoodsDeficit £ billions £ billions chain linked series The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 30. Trade in ServicesSurplus £ billions £ billions chain linked series The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 31. Trade in Goodsand Services £ billions £ billions chain linked series The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 32. House Prices -UK % change on prior year The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 33. House Prices -UK % change on prior year The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 34. Mortgage Activity -UK £ Billions The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 35. Nationwide House PriceIndex The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 36. Mortgage Activity -UK % change on prior year The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 37. Mortgage Activity -UK The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 38. Mortgage Activity -UK The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 39. Mortgage Activity -UK The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 40. Mortgage Activity -UK The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 41. Exchange Rates The UKEconomy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 42. Exchange Rates The UKEconomy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 43. Exchange Rates Sterling is expected to hold against the dollar and appreciate slightly against the Euro as interest rate spreads narrow and Euroland worries persist Further dollar weakness against the Renminbi is expected. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 £:$ 2.00 1.85 1.57 1.55 1.61 1.58 1.56 1.56 1.56 £:€ 1.46 1.26 1.12 1.17 1.15 1.23 1.26 1.28 1.28 £: ¥ 235.6 191.3 146.9 136.1 128.6 126.5 112.3 107.6 103.1 $: € 1.37 1.47 1.40 1.32 1.39 1.28 1.25 1.22 1.22 ¥:$ 117.8 103.4 93.6 87.8 79.9 79.8 72.0 69.0 66.1 Yuan:$ 7.61 6.95 6.83 6.77 6.47 6.47 6.25 6.00 5.75 ¥:Yuan 15.48 14.88 13.70 12.96 12.35 11.59 11.52 11.50 11.49 The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 44. Exchange Rates The UKEconomy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 45. Exchange Rates The UKEconomy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 46. Exchange Rates The UKEconomy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 47. Stock Market DividendPayments UK £ billions e e f f f The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 48. Greater Manchester GVA000 The UK Economy in Black and White JKA February 2013
- 49. GDP InflationCPI Earnings - whole economy Unemployment - claimant count Unemployment - LFS basis Base Rates Ten Year Gilts Oil Price - Brent crude PSNBR £ PSNBR % Manufacturing The UK Economy in Black and White Retail Sales On line sales Trade in Goods Trade in Services Overall Balance 2005 - 2015 Forecasts House Prices Exchange Rates The material is based upon information which we consider to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied John Ashcroft is Chief Executive of upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or pro.manchester, a director of Marketing omissions of opinion or fact. Manchester and a visiting professor at MMU Business School specialising in Macro In particular, no reliance should be placed on the Economics and Corporate Strategy. comments or trends in financial markets. The publication of this document should not be Educated at the London School of Economics construed as the giving of investment advice. and London Business School with a PhD in macro economics from MMU. www.johnashcroft.co.uk Exogenous Assumptions : Growth in China - USA recovery - no Euro collapse February 2013