An innovative approach to drug forecasting – in-the-moment mobile research enables collection of robust data close to the point of prescription. Applied to forecasting the advantages are significant – individualized data accounts for the increasingly personalized approaches to treatment based on bio-markers. Furthermore, the mobile platform enables collection of more qualitative information to supplement the quantitative, delivering robust yet holistic outcomes.

1. The only way
is mobile
Sarah Morley Debora Corfield
Business Intelligence Manager Research Director
Boehringer Ingelheim UK SKIM
Drug forecasting in the age
of personalised medicine

2. The only way is mobile
An innovative approach to drug forecasting – in-
the-moment mobile research enables collection
of robust data close to the point of prescription.
Drug forecasting in the age of personalised medicine

3. Setting the context…
Crowded markets, increasingly diverse patient groups

4. Setting the context…
Crowded markets, increasingly diverse patient groups
Forecast gets
more difficult
No more
generalisation

5. Conventional methods don’t cut it
Over-generalisation or excessive cognitive burden compromise data
Too simple Too complex

6. Who cares about cognitive burden?
Daniel Kahneman does…
System 1 Fast
Intuition
Emotions
System 2 Slow
Rational thinking
Critical mind
VS

7. The answer to 2 + 2
Detect that one object is
more distant than another
Complete the phrase
“bread and …”
Read words on
large billboards
Playing chess
(if you're Garry Kasparov)
The answer to 17 x 24
Fill out a
tax form
Complete a complex market
research survey
Focus on the voice of a particular
person in a crowded room
Playing chess
(if you're Debora Corfield)

8. What about RX?
System 2 activity
slow
System 1 activity
fast

9. - Emotions wear off
- Recall fades
- Answer solely based on rational factors (e.g. hard clinical facts)
+ Based on more softer factors
+ Easier to recall why
+ Answer based on a combination of soft (irrational) and hard (rational) factors
OCCURRENCE MEASUREMENT
OCCURRENCE MEASUREMENT

10. The only way
is mobile

11. Account for complexity simply
Simplify data collection, but account for market complexity
1 2 3 4
15 minute
online survey
Forms via
Direct mail
Respondents
use mobile app
Audio recording
after 2 weeks

12. Placeholder for
example screens
Simplify data collection, but
account for market complexity

13. Actual patients, no generalisation
Collection of focussed, relevant information
Individual, unique & representative data

14. Valid outcomes
Collection of focussed, relevant information
EGFR+ EGFR+

15. 7%
18%
12%
31%
8%
17%
5%
10%
5%
3%
8%
9%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
7%
3%
7%
4%
4%
4%
4%
15%
16%
16%
19%
5%
5%
6%
8%
34%
5%
37%
6%
6%
15%
6%
16%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2nd line adeno
EGFR+
2nd line adeno
EGFR-
/untested
2nd line adeno
EGFR+
2nd line adeno
EGFR-
/untested
Product L
Product K
Other chemo
Product J
Product I
Product H
Product G
Product F
Other
Product A
Product B
Product D
Product E
Core forecast data gathered
Robust forecasting based on high sample of cases
7%
18%
8%
17%
5%
10%
5%
3%
3% 5%
3%
3%
3%
7%
3%
7%
4%
4%
4%
4%
18% 23%
15%
16%
8%
8%
5%
5%
44%
7%
34%
5%
16%
49%
6%
15%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2nd line adeno
EGFR+
2nd line adeno
EGFR-
/untested
2nd line adeno
EGFR+
2nd line adeno
EGFR-
/untested
Product L
Product K
Other chemo
Product J
Product I
Product H
Product G
Product F
Other
Product A
Product B
Product D
Product E
All 4 new
products
launched
Patientshares(secondline
adenocarcinoma)
Current Market Future Market Future Market

16. Patient data gives further insight
Collection of focussed, relevant information
10%
4%
13%
25%
11% 9%
17% 26%
25%
22%
25%
18% 21%
42% 34%
50%
67%
38%
21%
31%
31%
36%
13% 11% 13%
50%
39%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Product E
Product D
Product B
Product A
11% 10% 7%
32%
22%
7%
18%
34% 64%
39%
35%
21%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
ECOG 0 ECOG 1 ECOG 2
Product E
Product D
Product B
Product A

17. Patient data gives further insight
Collection of focussed, relevant information
8% 10% 13%
18%
23%
23%
33%
30%
51%
100%
41% 37%
13%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Younger than 60 years 60 - 70 years 71 - 80 years 81 - 90 years
Product E
Product D
Product B
Product A

18. Qualitative data provides depth
Collection of focussed, relevant information
60%
40%
0%
0%
0%
13%
0% 20% 40% 60%
(Very) Good
OS/PFS
Good safety profile
Good experience in
Melanoma
No Docetaxel: wide
applicability
It is a single agent
Oral formulation
advantageous
17%
7%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0% 20% 40% 60%
33%
17%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0% 20% 40% 60%
33%
20%
23%
10%
13%
0%
0% 20% 40% 60%
Product E Product A Product B Product D

19. Qualitative data provides depth
Collection of focussed, relevant information
Physicians are
impressed with
Nintedanib’s efficacy
Nivolumab
innovative therapy
with good efficacy
(in melanoma)

20. Business impact
TBD
80%

21. Business impact
TBD
Nintenadib
Nivolumab
Communication
 Better forecasting
 Higher level of respondent engagement

22. Business impact
TBD
increase in
confidence
at every level

23. Benefits…
Robust data – patient records
without associated problems
Applications in market potential,
segmentation, Tx pathway
Less post-rationalisation responses
close to point of prescription
Accounts for indications with wide variety of patient types, or highly
individualised treatment (e.g. biomarker-based treatment)

24. Practical considerations
Some
over-recruitment
needed
Incentives to
maximise
participation
Not necessarily
cheaper than
current methods

25. Questions this approach
can answer
What is the patient share for each currently available agent/regimen?
Which patient types get which currently available agents/regimens?
What patient characteristics are correlated with different Tx options?
What is the future patient share of your new product & key competitors?
What patient characteristics correlate with your product &
how does this differ from key competitors?
What do physicians think of new agents after having reviewed them extensively?

26. With these answers you can
do the following
Model future
scenarios
Generate
ideas
Update your
product sales
forecast

27. Questions?