Draft PPT for panel Discussion.pptx

Title to be decided
02.09.2023 UNIVERSITÄT ROSTOCK | FAKULTÄT FÜR AGRAR- UND UMWELTWISSENSCHAFTEN 1

GERD Is a Public dam
 From its inception there has been strong willingness of Ethiopians at
home and abroad to invest in the dam project
 The government was able to raise a significant portion of the money
needed to start the construction of the GERD
 Active participation of the people on Participatory Watershed Development
based on the national guideline published by the federal government in
2005.
 Across Ethiopia, poor farmers and rich business executives alike eagerly
await for the completion of the dam.
 a hashtag It is my Dam
 A point of unity for Ethiopians

 The Green Legacy Initiative by PM Dr. Abiy- “Planting Our Print for
Future Generations”, entails enormous benefits such as:
 Environmental Protection
 Restoration of overexploited and degraded natural resources—soil
and water
 Increasing land cover by forests that will reduce erosion and reservoir
sedimentation
 Halting desertification
 Contribute to Ethiopia’s efforts to achieve SDG 2030
 Generally the Green Legacy contribute a lot if it I will organized and is
provided with professional support

02.09.2023 UNIVERSITÄT ROSTOCK | FAKULTÄT AGRAR- UND UMWELTWISSENSCHAFTEN 4
Dam siltation is a known problem
 Every dam has siltation problem, but there is a difference from one to
another
 This largely depends on whether there is enough vegetation in the
surrounding catchment area to trap and keep these sediments in
place, as rainfall washes the earth’s surface and brings silt into the
river.
 GERD reduces siltation for downstream countries
 There are two ways to manage siltation in dams: either dealing with
the silt BEFORE it reaches a dam or AFTER it reaches one
 After it reaches is too expensive
 The more feasible solution, especially for a country like Ethiopia, is
managing silt before it reaches the dam in the first place
 These actions include proactive efforts at a catchment level, which
amounts to treating the cause rather than the symptom; this brings us
to The Green Legacy project.

Oromia regional state participation on Integrated
watershed management (from 2017 report)
Physical and Biological soil conservation
 2,531,934 km different bunds have been constructed,
 5,685,979 m3 check dam constructed
 10,065,374 of water harvesting structures for plantation have been
implemented.
 1,174,010 ha area closure

02.09.2023 UNIVERSITÄT ROSTOCK | FAKULTÄT FÜR AGRAR- UND UMWELTWISSENSCHAFTEN
Background
6
Climate
extremes,
extreme heat
Social,
health &
Economic
impacts
Agriculture
production
& food
security
Changes
precipitation
pattern &
temperature
Water
security
(quantity &
quality)
Soil & land
degradatio
n
Change in
landscapes
&ecosystem
Flooding &
base flow
decline
 However, impacts varies from global to region
 LULC and CC have become one of the threats to global sustainability challenges
Increasing severity of hydro-climatic catastrophes
The effect of is not only limited to the function and
operation of existing water infrastructure but also water
management practices
Annual global cost of land degradation is
estimated to be about 300 billion USD
Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for the largest
share, 22% (Nkonya & Mirzabaev, 2016)
Figure 1. Impacts of LULC and CC

Figure 2. opportunity vs access across Europe and Africa, Ethiopa
Lack of infrastructure, economic well being
Europe vs Africa
Lighting in Nile Basin
Background

In Finchaa catchment
02.09.2023 UNIVERSITÄT ROSTOCK | FAKULTÄT AGRAR- UND UMWELTWISSENSCHAFTEN
Background
 Erosion and siltation
 Gully and Landslide
 Deforestation
 Uncontrolled grazing
 Uncontrolled activities
 Sedimentation & Eutrophication
Figure 2. Major problems in Finchaa
8

But, huge potential is there also in Africa, Ethiopia in particular
Figure 3. Sources of the Nile River vs Ethiopian Plateau
Background

Solutions to regional-to-local scale problems requires exploring the
status, and opportunities on the land-water-climate nexus
Modelling watershed hydrology based on sound scientific principles
is one technique to understand the land phase of the hydrological
cycle, contribution of hydrological processes and its effects
 to help develop scenarios and identify solutions that contribute to
climate-smart land use systems.
 This helps to manage the environment, water resource and
ecosystem properly in the face of future changes
This could be achieved through assessment of:
 two-way interactions between LULC and CC with watershed
hydrology and detailed understanding of the catchment processes.
Background

The fact that the country’s relatively abundant water resources
have played minimal role in the development of economy forced,
 the government to place priority on water resource development
Figure 5. Planned development Projects in upper Blue Nile
Background

In the quest for development, there is a rising demands of water,
socio-economic progresses and high demand of irrigation water,
Promoting sustainable development however relies on the
management of water resources linked with the ongoing and
planned developments
 However, knowledge of the interface between LULC and climate with
water required to undertake adaptation strategies in Finchaa is
inattentive.
 Finchaa is apart of UBNB, is a transboundary river becoming the topic of
discussion/agenda among the basin states, in relation to the Great Ethiopian
Renaissance Dam (GERD).
Therefore, the need for scientific research is critical to
contribute in exactness the relationship of LULC, CC and
hydrological condition of the catchment.
Background

 Modeling watershed hydrology using strong scientific evidences enables
 Explore
What could happen? Developing a long-term LULC and climate scenarios
that explore the future outlook of the catchment
What are LULC and climate change impacts? Integration of LULC, socio-
economic and CC to understand the current and future change impacts
What should happen? Evaluating management practices to compensate for
hydrological changes due to LULC and CC
Background
13

BNB has 18 major sub basins, 16 of which are in the
Abbay basin that accounts for a major share of the
Ethiopia’s irrigation and hydropower potential.
 Finchaa sub-basin is a part of Abbay river basin
which is unique in containing three watersheds
(Finchaa, Amert and Nesh watershed).
 The catchment is mainly agricultural land with
some range lands around the downstream and
wetlands around the head of Fincha reservoir
Figure 6. Description of the study area
2.Study area

 The basic data sets used for the study are:
 Spatial data
 topographic data (DEM),
 Land use/land cover data,
 soil data,
 Temporal data
 Meteorological (precipitation, temperature,
humidity, wind speed and solar radiation)
 Hydrological data (stream flow and
sediment concentrations)
 CORDEX-Africa
 CCLM4-8, CRCM5, HIRHAM5, RACMO22T
RCA4 and REMO2009
Data processing tools
 GPS
 ArcGIS
 ERDAS Imagine
 CA-Markov in IDRISI
 WETSPRO
 SWAT and SWAT-CUP
 CMhyd-Climate Model for
hydrological modelling
 MATLAB R2013a
Data & Data Processing
Data and Methodology
15

Image Classifications
and accuracy
assesment
Classified LULC of
1987, 2002, 2017
Predicted LULC
2017, 2036, 2055
Drivers and
Trajectories of
LULCC
LULCC Analysis
Landsat data
Change Analysis with socio-
ecoomic &biopysical data
Flow data
Calibration &
Validation
Prioritizations of
sub-watersheds
SWAT model
Setup
Sensitivity
analysis
Weather data DEM Soil Data
Simulations
Analysis of
LULC change
impact
Field Data
CORDEX-RCMs
Future Climate
change
CORDEX-RCMs
Evaluation
Analysis of
climate
change impact
Analysis of LULC
& climate
change impact
Sediment data
Analysis of
Sediment
Yield
Evaluation of
BMPs
Field observation,
ground truthing
Transitional
matrix
CA-Markov
analysis
Socioeconomic &
biophysical data
Suitability maps of
LULC classes
3.2 Methodology
Figure 7. Study Framework

 Drivers: integrated biophysical, socio-economic, institutional,
technological, and demographic factors (Dibaba et al., 2020a)
 hydropower and irrigation project induced changes
 Intensive agriculture without proper management practice
 Change implications:
 Decline of crop yield, low and decreasing profitability of farmers
 loss of biodiversity, extended aridity, soil and water degradation
 increased the risk of erosion and sedimentation of nearby water
bodies.
Drivers and Implications of LULC Dynamics
Results

Figure 8. LULC changes, % of loss/Gain
Figure 7. LULC map of 1987, 2002, 2017
Results

Figure 9. The rate of LULC changes along different slope from 1987 to 2017
Results
19

 The combined LULC and CC shows that the effect of the combined
scenario is similar to that of CC only scenario
 a decrease in SQ, GW and WY
 The warmer and drier seasons projected under both scenarios could
 increase the amount and magnitude of low flow days
 Consequently, there is less water Even with more rain!
 Decline of annual flow is due to decline in seasonal flows
 as streamflow is controlled by precipitation patterns and temperature
 Climate change is more significant than LULC in determining basin
hydrological response
Watershed Hydrological Response to Combined LULC and CC
Results
20

Figure 10. Impacts of
LULC change
climate change
combined LULC &CC
Watershed Hydrological Response to Combined LULC and CC
Results

Representation of Best management practice Scenarios in the area
 What might be considered effective for one region may not be suitable in other region
 Previous soil and water conservation experiences and recommendations from
Ethiopian watershed development guideline (Desta et al., 2005) were used to select
BMPs scenarios.
 Base line Scenario (BS) – Actual conditions simulated with the calibrated SWAT
 Soil/stone bund (SB)-helps to reduce the slope length and creates retention areas
 Contour farming (CF)- reduce runoff by impounding water in small depressions
 Reforestation (R)- helps to increase soil cover on steep slopes and degraded land
 Combined Scenarios
 reforestation with contour farming and
 reforestation with soil/stone bund

Table: 16 Annual SY and
its severity
 The simulated sediment yield (SY) varies from 0 to
107.2t/ha/yr with average annual SY 36.47 t/ha/yr
 Areas that experiences severe SY are the hilly
area in North-West and South-West
 Linked-highly cultivated crop fields with strongly
rolling and hilly slopes
 This is inline with the landslide and soil erosion
report over Jimma Geneti (Dibaba et al., 2020a).
 The tolerable soil erosion risks covers about
 22.83% according to Hurni, 1985 (2 to 18 t/ha/yr)
 15.05% according to FAO, 2019 (1 to 11ha-1yr-1)
 The lowest SY in the downstream is associated
with areas having good vegetation cover
4.4 Watershed prioritization to sediment yields in Finchaa
SY t ha-
1yr-1
Severity Area,
%
< 11 Low 15.0
11—18 Moderate 7.8
18—25 High 28.3
25—50 Very high 24.1
50—75 Severe 11.4
> 75 Very severe
13.4
Figure 15. SY hot spots

 SY reduction by CF, ST, FG and R are still above the tolerable loss
 R+SB significantly reduces the severe SY
Figure 14. Performance of BMPs and spatially maps of some technique
BMPs Scenario Analysis in Finchaa Catchment
Results

The practice was used by converting range lands and farmlands to forestland (for areas
found on gradient higher than 25%).
Foresting the degraded agricultural fields is more feasible and practical than foresting all
cultivated fields.
Further, it is easy to identify degraded agricultural lands by farmers and most farmers have
started plantation of Eucalyptus planting in degraded areas of their farmlands.
In this scenario, 4% of rangeland and 4% of agricultural fields were replaced by mixed
forest.
Reforestation

 How supporting BMPs can accelerate climate adaptation and reduce SY?
 Sustainable soil management increases soil organic matter reducing
greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere.
 Moreover restoring degraded soils helps to maintain ecosystem service
 Restoring key ecosystems on land, and a sustainable use of the land helps to mitigate and adapt to
climate change
BMPs Scenario Analysis in Finchaa Catchment
Results
o BMPs helps to control soil erosion through
o SY reduction, surface runoff reduction and soil moisture

 Under Paris agreement, Mitigation potential of land use activities are
recognized as essential in meeting climate targets making LU a central
component of international policy debate
o Studies show that more than half of gross greenhouse gas emission are
from agriculture
 How supporting BMPs can accelerate climate adaptation and reduce SY?
o SY reduction, surface runoff reduction and soil moisture

 The drivers of the land degradations are complex and multidimensional, associated with:
institutional, policy & legal framework and environment-population nexus (Dibaba et al.,
2020a).
 Therefore, interventions to address the challenges also require multidimensional and multi-sectoral
approaches.
 Effective inter-sectoral coordination requires that stakeholders share evidence, information &best
practices;
 This provides opportunity to achieve coherence in policies and actions across all levels and scales
 It is a means of realizing multiple outcomes simultaneously in an integrated and participatory
approach
 Consequently, the following major interventions could significantly help to minimize the soil, land and
water resources degradation.
 Improving agricultural practices
 Riparian restoration and protections
 Policy and Institutional arrangement

 The interventions and solutions identified during the assessment need to be aligned as sets of
intervention packages to be implemented for achieving the major strategic goals:
 Strategic Goal 1: Enhancing Ecological Resilience of the catchment through improving
management of biophysical resources (mainly soil and vegetation) and also through restoration
of degraded ecosystems and sites.
 Strategic Goal 2: Improving socio-economic development and community’s livelihood in the
target catchment through promoting small-scale and community owned green enterprises for
enhancing socio-economic resilience.
 targeting on improving and/or modernizing the agricultural production system
 they have to contribute to realization of eco-friendly or climate-smart agricultural production
 they have to be aligned with the three pillars of climate-smart agriculture,
 which include productivity enhancement, resilience building (adaptation to climate change), and
mitigation of climate change.

 Application of SWAT in data scarce areas with GIS and RS is promising for
LULC and CC impact studies
 CC leads to a direct impact on hydrology, but, the response varied based on
LULC
 BMPs showed promising SY reduction but single BMPs was not adequate
 The combined LULC and CC study is essential to explore a wider range of
sustainable watershed management
Conclusion, Recommendation & FO Conclusion
 The projections of water deficiency calls an enhanced water management
strategy that is inclusive of all sectors

 Complex problems require multidimensional approaches
 The challenge in LULC and CC is related to data and modeling types
 Improve hydro-meteorological monitoring
 Data recording centers, technical skills
 In a country where financial constraints are prevalent, it is required
 Prioritize hotspots but also prioritize effective BMPs
 Empowerment of sustainable SLM with policy support
 Nature-based solutions
 Eco-hydrology, riparian restorations
 Buffer zone, streambank stabilization
Conclusion, Recommendation & FO Recommendation

 The regional projections of soil moisture
remain uncertain compared to the other
hydrological process
 predictions of how LULC and CC affects soil
moisture needs to be studied
 The study on how LULC and CC affects crop
yields should be explored
 Besides the LULC and CC, the complex
demands of water use for Hydropower,
irrigation and water supply is required
 Using Remote sensing, Ground Observations
and Global Climate Datasets
 Integrating ground data with the
reanalysis products
 Detailed analysis of economic
implications of SLMs
 Development of long-term and
continuous monitoring campaigns
 sediment monitoring and nutrient
transports
 Bathometric survey- for reservoirs
Conclusion, Recommendation & FO Future outlook
32

6. References
1.Almazroui, M., Ashfaq, M., Islam, M. N., Ur, I., & Shahzad, R. (2021). Assessment of CMIP6 Performance and Projected
Temperature and Precipitation Changes Over South America. Earth Systems and Environment, 5(2), 155–183.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00233-6
2.Almazroui, M., Saeed, F., Saeed, S., Islam, M. N., Ismail, M., Klutse, N. A. B., & Siddiqui, M. H. (2020). Projected Change in
Temperature and Precipitation Over Africa from CMIP6. Earth Systems and Environment, 4(3), 455–475.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-020-00161-x
3.Ayele, G. T., Teshale, E. Z., Yu, B., Rutherfurd, I. D., & Jeong, J. (2017). Streamflow and Sediment Yield Prediction for
Watershed Prioritization in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia. Water, 9(782), 1–28. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9100782
4.Dibaba, Wakjira Takala, Demissie, T. A., & Miegel, K. (2020). Drivers and Implications of Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics in
Finchaa Catchment, Northwestern Ethiopia. Land, 9(4), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.3390/land9040113
5.Dile, Y. T., Berndtsson, R., & Setegn, S. G. (2013). Hydrological Response to Climate Change for Gilgel Abay River, in the Lake
Tana Basin - Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia. PLoS ONE, 8(10), 12–17. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0079296
6.Gadissa, T., Nyadawa, M., Behulu, F., & Mutua, B. (2018). The Effect of Climate Change on Loss of Lake Volume : Case of
Sedimentation in Central Rift Valley. Hydrology, 5(67), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology5040067
7.Guzhaa, A. C., Rufinoa, M. ., Okothb, S., Jacobsa, S., & Nóbregae, R. L. B. (2018). Regional Studies Impacts of land use and
land cover change on surface runoff , discharge and low flows : Evidence from East Africa. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies,
15, 49–67.
8.Nkonya, E.; Mirzabaev, A.; Braun, J. von. Economics of Land Degradation and Improvement – A Global Assessment for
Sustainable Development; Springer: Bonn, Germany, 2016, 1–14, doi:10.1007/978-3-319-19168-3.
9.Shiogama, H., Ishizaki, N. N., Hanasaki, N., Takahashi, K., Emori, S., Ito, R., Nakaegawa, T., Takayabu, I., Hijioka, Y.,
Takayabu, Y. N., & Shibuya, R. (2021). Selecting CMIP6-based Future Climate Scenarios for Impact and Adaptation Studies.
SOLA, 17, 57–62. https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2021-009
10.Shiru, M. S., & Chung, E. S. (2021). Performance evaluation of CMIP6 global climate models for selecting models for climate
projection over Nigeria. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 0123456789. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03746-2

Acknowledgement
 I always Praise the Almighty God for giving me the opportunity.
 Thanks also to my co-advisor Dr. Ing Tamene Adugna for his tireless
encouragement and support.
 Thanks to the German development bank (KfW) for providing me with a
scholarship through ExiST Ethiopia project to pursue my study.

Thanks for
your attention
Comments and questions
are welcome

Draft PPT for panel Discussion.pptx

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

Similar to Draft PPT for panel Discussion.pptx

Similar to Draft PPT for panel Discussion.pptx (20)

More from tameneaDemissie

More from tameneaDemissie (8)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

Draft PPT for panel Discussion.pptx