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THE LATEST
ECONOMIC TRENDS
Highlights from the 2017 Q4 and Year-End GDP Estimates
January 26, 2018
THE U.S. ECONOMY GREW 2.3% IN 2017
> 2
3.3
2.7
1.8
-0.3 -2.8
2.5
1.6
2.2
1.7
2.6
2.9
1.5
2.3
1.2
3.1 3.2
2.6
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
Real GDP
percent change
CONTRIBUTIONS TO GDP GROWTH
> 3
2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4
Real GDP 1.2 3.1 3.2 2.6
Contribution to change in real
GDP
Personal consumption
expenditures 1.9 3.3 2.2 3.8
Non-residential investment 7.2 6.7 4.7 6.8
Construction 14.8 7.0 -7.0 1.4
Equipment 4.4 8.8 10.8 11.4
IP products 5.7 3.7 5.2 4.5
Residential investment 11.1 -7.3 -4.7 11.6
Government -0.6 -0.2 0.7 3.0
Net exports 3.0 2.0 2.8 -7.0
CONSUMER SPENDING
> 4
3.5
3.0
2.2
-0.3
-1.6
1.9
2.3
1.5 1.5
2.9
3.6
2.7 2.7
1.9
3.3
2.2
3.8
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
Real personal consumption expenditures
percent change
BUSINESS INVESTMENT GREW BY 4.7% IN 2017
> 5
7.0 7.1
5.9
-0.7
-15.6
2.5
7.7
9.0
3.5
6.9
2.3
-0.6
4.7
7.2 6.7
4.7
6.8
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
Real business fixed investment
percent change
NON-RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT TRENDS
-2.8
> 6
4.4
8.8
10.8
11.4
2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4
Equipment
Percent change
14.8
7.0
1.4
2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4
Construction
Percent change
5.7
3.7
5.2
4.5
2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4
IP Products
Percent change
-7.0
HOUSING ACTIVITY
> 7
6.6
-7.6
-18.8
-24.0
-21.2
-2.5
0.5
13.5
11.9
3.5
10.2
5.5
1.7
11.1
-7.3
-4.7
11.6
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
Real residential investment
Percent Change
EXPORTS
> 8
6.3
9.0 9.3
5.7
-8.8
11.9
6.9
3.4 3.5
4.3
0.4
-0.3
3.4
7.3
3.5
2.1
6.9
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
Exports
Percent Change
INFLATION
> 9
2.2 2.2 2.2
2.1
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.9
1.5
1.6
1.3
1.8
1.5
1.8
0.9
1.3
1.9
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Percent Change (excluding food and energy)
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Highlights from 2017 Q4 and Year-End Estimates

  • 1. THE LATEST ECONOMIC TRENDS Highlights from the 2017 Q4 and Year-End GDP Estimates January 26, 2018
  • 2. THE U.S. ECONOMY GREW 2.3% IN 2017 > 2 3.3 2.7 1.8 -0.3 -2.8 2.5 1.6 2.2 1.7 2.6 2.9 1.5 2.3 1.2 3.1 3.2 2.6 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 Real GDP percent change
  • 3. CONTRIBUTIONS TO GDP GROWTH > 3 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 Real GDP 1.2 3.1 3.2 2.6 Contribution to change in real GDP Personal consumption expenditures 1.9 3.3 2.2 3.8 Non-residential investment 7.2 6.7 4.7 6.8 Construction 14.8 7.0 -7.0 1.4 Equipment 4.4 8.8 10.8 11.4 IP products 5.7 3.7 5.2 4.5 Residential investment 11.1 -7.3 -4.7 11.6 Government -0.6 -0.2 0.7 3.0 Net exports 3.0 2.0 2.8 -7.0
  • 4. CONSUMER SPENDING > 4 3.5 3.0 2.2 -0.3 -1.6 1.9 2.3 1.5 1.5 2.9 3.6 2.7 2.7 1.9 3.3 2.2 3.8 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 Real personal consumption expenditures percent change
  • 5. BUSINESS INVESTMENT GREW BY 4.7% IN 2017 > 5 7.0 7.1 5.9 -0.7 -15.6 2.5 7.7 9.0 3.5 6.9 2.3 -0.6 4.7 7.2 6.7 4.7 6.8 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 Real business fixed investment percent change
  • 6. NON-RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT TRENDS -2.8 > 6 4.4 8.8 10.8 11.4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 Equipment Percent change 14.8 7.0 1.4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 Construction Percent change 5.7 3.7 5.2 4.5 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 IP Products Percent change -7.0
  • 7. HOUSING ACTIVITY > 7 6.6 -7.6 -18.8 -24.0 -21.2 -2.5 0.5 13.5 11.9 3.5 10.2 5.5 1.7 11.1 -7.3 -4.7 11.6 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 Real residential investment Percent Change
  • 8. EXPORTS > 8 6.3 9.0 9.3 5.7 -8.8 11.9 6.9 3.4 3.5 4.3 0.4 -0.3 3.4 7.3 3.5 2.1 6.9 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 Exports Percent Change
  • 9. INFLATION > 9 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.8 0.9 1.3 1.9 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 Personal Consumption Expenditures Percent Change (excluding food and energy)
  • 10. QUESTIONS Press 1 on your phone, or Email info@businessfwd.org 10