Divergence - what happens after Convergence

CONVERGENCE IS ‘COMING TO AN END’
But what happens after that?
Network X

Dis
X Point of Convergence

Object X

A whitepaper by
Rob Manson
Managing Director
Mobile Online Business (MOB)
© 2007 Rob Manson-Mobile Online Business Email: roBman@MobileOnlineBusiness.com.au

What is Convergence?
The concepts of Convergence and the Multiplay are currently driving the whole Telecommunications industry.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convergence
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Media_convergence
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_convergence

And the Fixed-Mobile Convergence Alliance (FMCA) is the most tangible example of this.

http://www.thefmca.com/

But what happens after that?

Yet Convergence is only half the picture
While Convergence is absolutely essential to create this change, there are two sentences in the underlying Model and Convergence is only
the first.

Part 1: As an Object and the Network Converge (Convergence)
Part 2: that Object and it's Interface can Diverge (Divergence)

This means that by Networking an Object we can make it available or controllable from anywhere on the Network.

It's like ripping the control panel off your phone, TV, home security system, bluetooth headset, etc. and actually putting it in the network.
This gives you more power and control over these objects - anywhere, anytime.

As an Object and the Network Converge that Object and it's Interface can Diverge
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© 2007 Rob Manson-Mobile Online Business

A Wireless DSL Modem is a tangible example of this type of Object. It's now possible to log in to your Wireless Modem and Control it
from any internet Connected PC, or even Mobile Phone. This is now also becoming true of your TV, Video/DVD Recorder, Security
Camera, Security System, Baby Monitor, etc. And of course the FMCA is driving this for Fixed and Mobile services. Their goal is to
completely blend your home phone, mobile phone and internet connection.

This process of adding network connectivity to an Everyday Object (starting with your phone) means you can now make that Object more
Pervasive. It's as if these Objects are then quot;INquot; the network itself.

In technical terms it increases the Object:Interface Divergence allowing the Interface to be accessed and controlled further and further
away from the physical Object itself.

Fig. 1: Object:Network Distance Diagram
Network X

Distance

Object X

It's like ripping the control panel off your phone, TV, home security system,
bluetooth headset, etc. and actually putting it in the network.
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Fig. 2: Object:Network Convergence Diagram No. 1

Network X

Distanc

Object X

So Object:Network Convergence reduces the distance between an Object and the Network. And it is literally this diagram that is
currently the focus of the Telecommunications industry.

Convergence is a means to an end - Divergence is that end.
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Fig. 3: Object:Network Convergence Diagram No. 2

Network X

Distan
X Point of Convergence

Object X

And the whole technology industry seems focused upon the Convergence area within this diagram.

Yet Convergence, by it's very definition is a diminishing area that comes to an end over time. This is the point of Convergence.
Convergence literally IS quot;coming to an endquot;.

Convergence, by it's very definition is a diminishing area that comes to an end over time...
Convergence literally IS quot;coming to an endquot;.
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Divergence will bring the real revolution!
Fig. 4: Object:Interface Divergence Diagram

Network X

Distan
X Object

Interface

On the flip side, Object:Interface Divergence increases the distance between an Object and it's Interface - allowing you to control that
Object anywhere, anytime.

This is the other side of the same line of the very same diagram. And this is where the emergent properties that will reshape the technology
industry are really coming from.

In business terms this is a paradigm shift, inflection point or simply a market revolution.
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This area created by Object:Interface Divergence is expanding rather than diminishing.

And instead of coming to an end at the point of Object:Network Convergence...that point is where it increases vertically. In mathematical
terms this is a singularity.

In business terms this is a paradigm shift, inflection point or simply a market revolution.

While the FMCA is driving towards this point of Convergence for the Phone there seems to be little if any real focus on what happens after
that.

http://www.thefmca.com/assets/pdf/idc_fmca_09_11_05.pdf

Once the Architecture laid out by the FMCA is realised
(http://www.thefmca.com/assets/pdf/FMCA_WiFi_SIP_PRD_Release_2_Network_Architecture.pdf) then the Network Effect will enable
broad scale Object:Interface Divergence. This means that by adding network connectivity to an object it can automatically be made Perva-
sive.

Even today Windows Mobile 5 phones can connect to 3G and WiFi services using a rich (but small) web browser to access and control
networked objects from anywhere.

This includes a wide range of Objects such as:
AV devices (e.g. home media centre)
Headsets and other embedded devices
Cars
Homes and their appliances
Etc.

So while 6 of the 8 Application scenarios laid out by the FMCA focus on people and their communication (the traditional focus of the
Telecommunications industry) this is merely the beginning.

Diverged Object:Interfaces can even have a many:many relationship between the Interfaces and
Objects creating whole new concepts of Object Clusters.
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The Divergence delivered by this frees Interfaces (and therefore their Users) from their traditionally 1:1 mapping to the physical location
of their Everyday Objects.

Diverged Object:Interfaces can even have a many:many relationship between the Interfaces and Objects creating whole new concepts of
Object Clusters and Interface Servers. Keep an eye on this space as it has the potential to open up a whole new renaissance in Industrial
Design! Now every object, product or service is open for re-interpretation. How will this effect your industry and business?

What can we learn from the recent past?
The Web Boom of the 90's was created by the Convergence of PCs and an increasingly common public IP network - the Internet.

However it was the Divergence of the Web Server and it's Interface (via the Web Browser) that delivered the real impact of this whole
revolution.

So while sending and receiving email from your Internet connected PC is really useful...being able to send and receive email from any web
browser (as defined by Hotmail) was the true Killer App for email during the Web Boom.

And while EFTPOS via banking/retail networks is really useful...being able to make purchases from any web browser (e-commerce) is a
Killer App that created massive companies like Amazon and eBay.

This Model can then be extended to today's situation. The FMCA has already laid out a clear path for the Phone. This is the most important
phase to be focused upon for any Telco today. And once this change is in place then large scale changes can happen overnight.

While the currently common view seems to be that the fresh lessons from the recent Web Boom should ensure that any new booms should
be much smaller and more restrained, Object:Interface Divergence suggests that the next Boom could happen much more quickly, be much
larger and have even broader social and economic implications.

And that those who ignore this possibility could see their whole market reshape before their very eyes.

While EFTPOS via banking/retail networks is really useful...being able to make purchases from any
web browser (e-commerce) is a Killer App that created massive companies like Amazon and eBay.
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The Mega Multiplay
This Object:Interface Divergence model exposes what could really drive the Multiplay (blending phone, mobile and internet) into the
mainstream!

The FMCA Application Scenarios - Scenario F: Automation Control and Monitoring
http://www.thefmca.com/assets/pdf/FMCA_Convergence_Application_Requirements_Rel_1.0.pdf

A service which provides the ability to control various home based
functions via the mobile device as temperature, access, etc.
In addition, it offers the ability to monitor conditions within the home
such as the burglar alarm, or home CCTV. The convergent offering
ties together the user's home environment and access to the
mobile device they have with them throughout the day.

Key features:
secure authentication to access the home network;
service needs to adapt to available network capabilites,
e.g. streamed video offered when appropriate.

However this scenario can easily be extended to a much wider range of objects than described here. The etc. at the end of the first line
really hides the true scope and potential of this scenario.

How do we get there?
Focusing on making core business functions Pervasive should be the first and most important goal for any business right now. Without this
you are seriously vulnerable to agile smaller competitors that could quickly cannabalise your business.

Once this is achieved, then beyond the Multiplay and it's promise of massive Media Mergers lies this Mega Multiplay. A future of
Pervasive Computing (similar to that proposed by Mark Weiser from Xerox PARC - http://sandbox.xerox.com/ubicomp/) with the mas-
sively increased network usage/dependence that this requires.

Object:Interface Divergence suggests that the next Boom could happen much more quickly, be
much larger and have even broader social and economic implications.
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The company that delivers a Pervasive Interface to the Customer may not only own that Customer's perception of their product segment,
they may literally own all of that Customer's network traffic. Underneath this interface that Company can ensure that the network of their
choice is used giving them control of the network revenue generated by that Customer.

But Telco's be warned...you don't have to be a Network Owner (Telco) to deliver this type of control. Skype and the SkypeOut applications
are good examples of this.

The Pervasive Progression
Here's how Computers have already become more Pervasive so far:

The Computer (initially building and then room sized machines)
The PC (desktop sized machines)
The Networked PC (enabling the Web Boom)
The Wireless PC (WiFi made network Pervasive within the home/office)
Mobiles (the first truly Pervasive device)
Wearable Devices (starting with Bluetooth headsets)

See what the future feels like
In order to help you get hands on experience with Divergence we are running a range of workshops. These workshops cover tangible
topics such as:

Hands on Divergence exercises
Techniques for measuring how Pervasive a specific object is
Divergence Analysis of existing business models
Tangible ways to develop innovative new business models
An in-depth look at how Divergence is the logical conclusion of User Centred Design

For more information on Divergence or to register for a workshop
email divergence@MobileOnlineBusiness or visit http://MobileOnlineBusiness.com.au.
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Divergence - what happens after Convergence

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