This document discusses the distressed real estate opportunity market from 2007-2008 and the rise of "vulture funds" during that period. Key points:
- From 2007-2009, distressed asset fundraising increased dramatically, with 35% of all real estate fundraising by 2009 focusing on distressed assets. Vulture funds raised $75 billion in just 3 years.
- Most vulture funds targeted investments in North America, with 79% focusing on the US. As of 2010, $61 billion additional capital was still being raised for distressed deals in North America.
- Many vulture fund sponsors were inexperienced, with 70% being first-time managers of distressed/debt vehicles seeking high fees from hedge funds.
Financial Analysis - LinkedIn Corporation operates a social networking websit...BCV
Financial Analysis - LinkedIn Corporation operates a social networking website used for professional networking. The Company's website allows members to post a profile of their professional expertise and accomplishments
Financial Analysis - LinkedIn Corporation operates a social networking websit...BCV
Financial Analysis - LinkedIn Corporation operates a social networking website used for professional networking. The Company's website allows members to post a profile of their professional expertise and accomplishments
Month-to-date financings in May totalled $106.6 million; led by the $20
million One Net financing. So far, there have been 18 financings in May,
with 10 deals greater than $5 million and only five less than $5 million.
There have been two financings greater than $10 million (Cyberplex and One
Net), with the capital raises by Imeem and EveryZing close behind at $8.8
million and $8.3 million, respectively. The average value thus far in May is
$5.9 million, slightly below the average value for April of $6.5 million on
21 financings. The March average was $6.6 million on 24 financings. Except
for two deals (Kaixin001.com and Collective Media), all were below $20
million for the last three months and a total of four deals were greater
than or equal to $15 million.
*One Net’s $20 million financing is largest deal in May: *One Net announced
a $20 million financing last week, the largest deal so far in May. Ten of
the 18 deals in the month are equal to or greater than $5 million. For
additional details, see Figures 23 and 24 (at end of note). Also note that
the spin-off of StumbleUpon from E-bay on a $29 million valuation occurred
in May. E-bay had bought StumbleUpon for $75 million.
*A strong price performance week: *The companies in our universe had
relatively strong stock price performances over the past week (for stocks
with prices greater than $1) (Figure 6), with 31 companies showing positive
returns on the week. OpenWave Systems (NASDQ:OPWV) led the group with a
49.2% return, while DigitalTown (OTCBB:DGTW) had the worst return, dropping
35.0% in the week.
LATTER HALF OF 2009: FORGING FORWARD
DEAL VALUE ON PACE TO MEET NOVEMBER LEVEL
December starts at strong pace: Total transaction value in the Web 2.0 universe for the first week of December is $68.8 million. The number of financings stands at seven, averaging $9.8 million each. In comparison, total capital raised in November was $203.4 million, averaging $11.3 million (18 deals); October was $171.3 million, averaging $6.3 million (27 deals); and September was $232.8 million, averaging $9.0 million (26 deals).
Broad-based sector financing: Video, Gaming, Advertising, Collaboration, and Analytics experienced the most financing activity among our Web 2.0 sector categories in the past three months by number of transactions (six each). Social Networks remain strong with five deals in the past quarter. Infrastructure and Search round out the top three positions at four deals each over the past three months. The $400 million acquisition of Playfish skews the Virtual Worlds segment to the highest total.
Market pull-back abates – universe split between risers and decliners: Twenty-five companies in our universe had positive stock price performances over the past week (for stocks with prices greater than $1), while 22 companies showed negative 1-week returns.
Financial Analysis - EDF SA (Electricite de France) produces, transmits, dist...BCV
Financial Analysis - EDF SA (Electricite de France) produces, transmits, distributes, imports and exports electricity. The Company, using nuclear power, coal and gas, provides electricity for French energy consumer
April on track to be record month?: Total transaction value in the Web 2.0 universe April-to-date is $726.1 million. The number of financings stands at 40 averaging $18.2 million each. Note that this includes the $300 million investment in DST by Tencent. Even excluding this transaction, the average is $15.2 million. In comparison, total capital raised in March was $168.1 million, averaging $5.4 million over 31 deals. The highest monthly total in our Web 2.0 financing database was April 2008 with a total of $765.5 million raised in 47 transactions.
Deal round-up for April: The large deal highlights for the month include:
§
•Tencent invested $300mm in DST (investor in Facebook, Zynga, Groupon).
DST invested $135mm in social-shopping service Groupon.
Salesforce.com acquired crowd-sourced personal contact service, Jigsaw, for $142 mm.
•Warner Bros. acquired gaming company, Turbine, for $160 mm.
•Ankeena Networks, media infrastructure solution provider was acquired by Juniper for $100mm.
Bullish week for Web 2.0: Sixty-nine percent of the companies in our universe had increased or flat market caps over the past week, sixty-nine percent had increased EV/Revenue multiples, 75% had increased or flat EV/EBITDA multiples and 73% had increased or flat P/E mutliples .
Presentation made to HRP Executive Committee (ExCom) on 17-Oct 08 by ODU Economic Professor Dr. Larry Filer on the current economic crisis and the relationship to Hampton Roads.
Month-to-date financings in May totalled $106.6 million; led by the $20
million One Net financing. So far, there have been 18 financings in May,
with 10 deals greater than $5 million and only five less than $5 million.
There have been two financings greater than $10 million (Cyberplex and One
Net), with the capital raises by Imeem and EveryZing close behind at $8.8
million and $8.3 million, respectively. The average value thus far in May is
$5.9 million, slightly below the average value for April of $6.5 million on
21 financings. The March average was $6.6 million on 24 financings. Except
for two deals (Kaixin001.com and Collective Media), all were below $20
million for the last three months and a total of four deals were greater
than or equal to $15 million.
*One Net’s $20 million financing is largest deal in May: *One Net announced
a $20 million financing last week, the largest deal so far in May. Ten of
the 18 deals in the month are equal to or greater than $5 million. For
additional details, see Figures 23 and 24 (at end of note). Also note that
the spin-off of StumbleUpon from E-bay on a $29 million valuation occurred
in May. E-bay had bought StumbleUpon for $75 million.
*A strong price performance week: *The companies in our universe had
relatively strong stock price performances over the past week (for stocks
with prices greater than $1) (Figure 6), with 31 companies showing positive
returns on the week. OpenWave Systems (NASDQ:OPWV) led the group with a
49.2% return, while DigitalTown (OTCBB:DGTW) had the worst return, dropping
35.0% in the week.
LATTER HALF OF 2009: FORGING FORWARD
DEAL VALUE ON PACE TO MEET NOVEMBER LEVEL
December starts at strong pace: Total transaction value in the Web 2.0 universe for the first week of December is $68.8 million. The number of financings stands at seven, averaging $9.8 million each. In comparison, total capital raised in November was $203.4 million, averaging $11.3 million (18 deals); October was $171.3 million, averaging $6.3 million (27 deals); and September was $232.8 million, averaging $9.0 million (26 deals).
Broad-based sector financing: Video, Gaming, Advertising, Collaboration, and Analytics experienced the most financing activity among our Web 2.0 sector categories in the past three months by number of transactions (six each). Social Networks remain strong with five deals in the past quarter. Infrastructure and Search round out the top three positions at four deals each over the past three months. The $400 million acquisition of Playfish skews the Virtual Worlds segment to the highest total.
Market pull-back abates – universe split between risers and decliners: Twenty-five companies in our universe had positive stock price performances over the past week (for stocks with prices greater than $1), while 22 companies showed negative 1-week returns.
Financial Analysis - EDF SA (Electricite de France) produces, transmits, dist...BCV
Financial Analysis - EDF SA (Electricite de France) produces, transmits, distributes, imports and exports electricity. The Company, using nuclear power, coal and gas, provides electricity for French energy consumer
April on track to be record month?: Total transaction value in the Web 2.0 universe April-to-date is $726.1 million. The number of financings stands at 40 averaging $18.2 million each. Note that this includes the $300 million investment in DST by Tencent. Even excluding this transaction, the average is $15.2 million. In comparison, total capital raised in March was $168.1 million, averaging $5.4 million over 31 deals. The highest monthly total in our Web 2.0 financing database was April 2008 with a total of $765.5 million raised in 47 transactions.
Deal round-up for April: The large deal highlights for the month include:
§
•Tencent invested $300mm in DST (investor in Facebook, Zynga, Groupon).
DST invested $135mm in social-shopping service Groupon.
Salesforce.com acquired crowd-sourced personal contact service, Jigsaw, for $142 mm.
•Warner Bros. acquired gaming company, Turbine, for $160 mm.
•Ankeena Networks, media infrastructure solution provider was acquired by Juniper for $100mm.
Bullish week for Web 2.0: Sixty-nine percent of the companies in our universe had increased or flat market caps over the past week, sixty-nine percent had increased EV/Revenue multiples, 75% had increased or flat EV/EBITDA multiples and 73% had increased or flat P/E mutliples .
Presentation made to HRP Executive Committee (ExCom) on 17-Oct 08 by ODU Economic Professor Dr. Larry Filer on the current economic crisis and the relationship to Hampton Roads.
How do you get your brand in front of today's savvy customer? You cannot rely on the traditional consumer buying process in a time where the power of data is in the hands of the individual, so as a brand, how can you move your product ahead of the competition?
NOP Global - Compliance Auditing ExpertsJames Martin
Consumer brands spend their marketing budgets making their products attractive to consumers, however hand over the implementation of merchandising, replenishment and promotional campaigns to stores. By focusing on compliance programmes, brands can work with retailers and support them in executing corporate plans that benefit both businesses and deliver the customer impact originally desired.
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdfNeal Brewster
After this second you should be able to: Explain the main determinants of demand for any mineral product, and their relative importance; recognise and explain how demand for any product is likely to change with economic activity; recognise and explain the roles of technology and relative prices in influencing demand; be able to explain the differences between the rates of growth of demand for different products.
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
How to get verified on Coinbase Account?_.docxBuy bitget
t's important to note that buying verified Coinbase accounts is not recommended and may violate Coinbase's terms of service. Instead of searching to "buy verified Coinbase accounts," follow the proper steps to verify your own account to ensure compliance and security.
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
BYD SWOT Analysis and In-Depth Insights 2024.pptxmikemetalprod
Indepth analysis of the BYD 2024
BYD (Build Your Dreams) is a Chinese automaker and battery manufacturer that has snowballed over the past two decades to become a significant player in electric vehicles and global clean energy technology.
This SWOT analysis examines BYD's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats as it competes in the fast-changing automotive and energy storage industries.
Founded in 1995 and headquartered in Shenzhen, BYD started as a battery company before expanding into automobiles in the early 2000s.
Initially manufacturing gasoline-powered vehicles, BYD focused on plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles, leveraging its expertise in battery technology.
Today, BYD is the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer, delivering over 1.2 million electric cars globally. The company also produces electric buses, trucks, forklifts, and rail transit.
On the energy side, BYD is a major supplier of rechargeable batteries for cell phones, laptops, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems.
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership NetworksGRAPE
Seminar on gender diversity spillovers through ownership networks at FAME|GRAPE. Presenting novel research. Studies in economics and management using econometrics methods.
9. Vulture Culture
Anticipation Phase
By 2007 distressed
asset fundraising was
already up by 207%
By 2009, 35% of
ALL RE fundraising
focused on distressed
assets!
In 3 years, “Vulture
Funds” raised $75B
Source: Prequin – Private Equity Real Estate
Distressed and Debt Market Report: April 2010
10. Vulture Culture
“Concentration of Risk in a Small Space”
79% of these funds
targeted North America
As of April 2010, $61B
additional was still being
actively marketing for
deployment in …North
America
Currently, 74% of
currently marketing funds
target distressed
investment.
The Vulture perch is
crowded!
Source: Prequin – Private Equity Real Estate
Distressed and Debt Market Report: April 2010
11. Vulture Culture
“Inexperience compelled by Fees”
Source: Prequin 4/2010 Distressed RE Report
70% of Vulture Fund sponsors were First-Time Managers of
distressed and debt vehicles.
Hedge fund fees in distressed sector among highest in the
industry!
Source: Prequin – Private Equity Real Estate Distressed and Debt
Market Report: April 2010
12. Vulture Culture
Why Didn’t the REITS get Hit?
$25 1,800
1,600
Reason #1
$20
1,400
Proceeds (in billions)
Shares (in millions)
1,200
$15
$10
1,000
Wall Street’s 2009
“Recapitalization Rally!”
800
600
$5
400
REITs issued over 1.5B shares
[worth $18.7B] of new stock
$0 200
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
equity in 2009!
Equity REITs only. Consists of follow -on offerings and private placements only.
Proceeds Shares Issued
Sources: NAREIT, SNL Financial, Stifel Nicolaus
REIT issued more shares in
2009 than in any of the
previous 10 years!
What did REITs want to buy
with all this money?
DISTRESSED ASSETS!
13. Vulture Culture
Why didn’t the REITs get hit?
Reason #2
REITS were NET SELLERS into the Valuation Peak!
Effectively, they were “re-calibrating” their balance sheets.
15. The Government Boostrap
Why isn’t this woman smiling?
Possible Answers:
– “Sheila’s on First”
– She is looking at the
next charts
– Her Boss puts her on
“hold” every time she
calls
Sheila Bair: Head of the FDIC
16. The Government Bootstrap
“Exactly where does it hurt, Sheila?”
87% of CRE risk is
concentrated in local and
regional banks with <$1B
in assets.
Average commercial loan
held by those banks is only
$8M*
US Money-Money Center
banks are NOT at Tier-1 risk
(thanks to TARP)!
What size deals are Vulture
Funds targeting with $120B?
*Mortgage Bankers Association, Press Release 2/5/2010
18. The Government Bootstrap
Disturbing Facts vs. Disturbing Realities
As of May 2010, the Deposit In the next 12 months, the FDIC
Insurance Fund, or DIF, had is expecting to spend “$40
a negative balance of billion” closing troubled banks.
$20.7 billion.
Commercial banks hold $1.5T of
The FDIC has $46 billion in CRE mortgage debt outstanding
three years of prepaid
deposit insurance CRE Loan Losses at banks alone
premiums and $17 billion in could be $200-$300B*
cash for a grand total of $63
billion in “liquid resources”
to close insolvent banks. Potential CRE bank loss exposure
is 697% of current “net” FDIC
Deducting the $20B DIF resources available today.
deficit, there’s $43B in
“net” liquid assets.
* Source: Congressional Oversight Panel, February
Oversight Report: “Commercial Real Estate Losses and
the Risk to Financial Stability” Feb 10, 2010
19. Government Bootstrap
The Trend is NOT the FDIC’s Friend
2008:
– $14.9B
– 25 banks
– $596M/bank
2009:
– $36.4B loss
– 140 banks
– $260M/bank
June 2010:
– $17B loss (first 6 months!)
– 81 banks
– $321M/bank
Annualized 2010 Projection
– 162 failures
– $277M/bank (avg)
(avg)
– $45B estimate total liability for 2010
Current Trend: Chart on the lower
left – the ORANGE line
21. The Government Bootstrap
Politics trumps Economics
What’s Washington’s political motivation to
accelerate Tier-1 loss defaults into bank
failures prior to November?
ZERO!
22. The Government Bootstrap
Sticky issue: FDIC Funding in 2011??
November Elections
“Bail-Out” Political Backlash
State Budget Meltdowns (CA)
Record-setting Federal deficits
“Hello Sheila? No… it’s not a
good time to talk about this…
can I put you on hold?”
25. The Government Bootstrap
“If you only remember one thing…”
The US
Government
controls the
distressed
asset market
because they
regulate the
key player:
the banks.
27. Disappointment in
2010
“Today I’m sitting with $125M in cash that I can’t find investment
for”
Stephen Richter, CFO – Weingarten Realty Investors
“The volume of properties that are truly distressed and will be sold in
a distressed fashion will be significantly less than had initially
been thought”
Bob Steers, Co-Chief Executive Cohen & Steers, Inc.
“Funds are fighting over a slim group of available deals”
Mark Edelstein, Real Estate Group Head, Morrison & Foerster, LLP
28. What Happened and
Why
Only 17.5% actually transacted
59% of investors targeted un-levered
IRRs north of 16%
49% sought leverage of 50% or
greater. (ie, levered IRRs >30%)
Resulting Bid-Ask spreads too wide for
sellers (banks)
FDIC handed the banks an option:
refusal of low-ball offers.
Charts: Ernst & Young, US Distressed Real Estate Loans Invstor Survey, April 2010
29. Throwing in the Towel?
A total of 19 private-
equity real-estate
funds have either
returned or plan to
return more than $6
billion of capital to
investors. WSJ, “Dearth of
Properties Spurs Fund Givebacks” May 26th,
2010
30. Where Are We, Watson?
[2011-2017]
Sleuthing for Clues At the Scene of
the Crime
31. Mysterious Footprints
Bank Maturities
peak in 2010-
2013?
Not quite - 3
year workouts
suggest our
villain will return
in 2013-2016.
But Holmes –
look at CMBS!!
32. Another set of Footprints
leading to….
Right you are, Watson!
A second set of footprints – CMBS – leads to
the same exact destination: 2014-2017!
But that’s preposterous, Holmes! What then…?
Source: Goldman Sachs and Trepp
33. Death by Blunt Instrument
[the Re-fi Gap!]
100
90
80
70
60 Others lenders
($ Billions)
Banks (Construction Loans)
50
Banks (Income producing CRE)
40 CMBS
30
20
Source: Morgan Stanley, MBA,
FDIC, FFIEC, Intex, PPR, and
10
Jones Lang LaSalle
-
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Difference between debt outstanding upon maturity and debt that is
sustainable today based on normalized LTVs (~65%)
Bank extensions are shifting these maturities three years forward!
2010 shifts to 2013 ! CMBS maturities peak in 2015-2017
34. Critical Impact:
Re-fi Rates in 2013?
A 3.3% 10-year treasury rate is way below
our 30 year average! (why?)
35. An Extraordinary Puzzle!
INVERSE correlation
between debt and
interest rates. More
debt = lower rates!
Counter-intuitive?
Convenient?
Conspiracy?
We borrow more
when rates are low,
why shouldn’t Uncle
Sam?
Excludes Public debt
(Soc Security, et. al.)
36. But …what about Public
debt?
Public debt is off-
balance sheet liability.
Guarantied (but not
serviced) by US Govt.
Bad trend in net
foreign purchases of
US Treasuries!
38. But EVENTS (not rates) are
defining demand
[The most interesting chart of the morning!
39. Clues to watch in the next
12 months!
Higher rate indicators
– Net drop in Treasury purchases by central banks
– More bail-outs/guarantees by US Government
– Stock market drop below 9600 on DOW (Fibonnaci 38.2% retracement
support.
– Increase in residential foreclosures after November (perceived loss of
economic virility devalues fiat-based $ resultingMBA, increasing interest
Source: Morgan Stanley, in
rates to lure investment back into T-bills.Intex, PPR, and
FDIC, FFIEC,
Jones Lang LaSalle
Lower rate indicators
– Environment of political or economic crisis (Euro PIIGS, Iran, N. Korea,
Mexico)
– Dow regains 11,136 (unlikely – 61.8% Fibonnaci)
THANK YOU!