This document summarizes a presentation on attribution modeling in a multi-device environment. It discusses the importance of cross-device tracking, evaluating attribution vendors based on criteria like independence and capabilities. It also covers ROI components like variable contribution margin and spend, and challenges in algorithmic attribution including data collection and profile deduplication across devices. The goal is to attribute the correct value to each marketing channel to accurately calculate ROI and optimize spending.
The document is a summary of Wyndham's divisions and brands from a 2014 budget review. It states that Wyndham is the world's largest hotel company based on number of hotels, with approximately 7,500 hotels and 646,900 rooms. It is also the world's largest lodging loyalty program, vacation ownership developer and marketer, vacation exchange network, and professionally managed vacation rentals business. Wyndham has over 900,000 owners of vacation ownership interests, 3.7 million exchange members, and sends approximately 4 million consumers on vacation through vacation rentals annually.
Tds north america strategy summit (nyc) personalization 2014-09-11bJonathan Isernhagen
Digital marketing personalization: recommendations about how to do it on the cheap, discussion of challenges, and a few examples of how it's been done well.
Algorithmic marketing channel attribution: why it's important, who is doing it, how it will change your business and how to decide what method is right for you.
The document discusses the future of digital measurement in marketing. It notes that the majority of global media consumption will soon be digital, so measurement tools need to account for this. Key challenges include cross-device tracking, determining touch point quality, location tracking, dealing with "walled gardens" like Facebook and iOS, and identity management across platforms. Unified measurement of both online and offline data will be needed. Addressing these challenges can improve marketing efficiencies by 10-30% according to research.
This document discusses the challenges of measuring marketing performance using proxy metrics like clicks and leads, and proposes a people-based measurement approach. It notes that people use multiple devices and touchpoints along their purchase journey, making attribution complex. The key points are:
1) Traditional metrics don't account for people interacting across channels and devices, so performance is mismeasured.
2) A people-based approach uses identity management to stitch together touchpoints into complete cross-device purchase paths.
3) This allows for improved attribution modelling to accurately allocate credits for awareness, engagement and sales across different marketing activities.
With the large influx of data such as transaction, interaction, and discrete information it is becoming increasingly more difficult to harness the power of big data to make insightful strategic decisions. This deck presents "The Digital Opportunity" that lies within the issue.
The document is a presentation on online advertising that covers:
1. An overview of the advertising industry and reasons for online advertising.
2. The different types of online advertising including search, display, and social media advertising.
3. Statistics on digital ad spending and usage in Canada.
4. Details on search advertising, display advertising, and social media advertising formats and metrics.
5. Future trends in online advertising like mobile commerce and multi-device usage.
This document discusses integrating marketing analytics and data-driven intelligence. It covers operationalizing digital data capture and integration, data-driven multi-channel outbound marketing, real-time inbound marketing and dynamic analytics, and creating adaptive customer experiences. The key aspects are consolidating customer data from various sources, driving value from integrated analytics, orchestrating the next best action for customers, and measuring performance to improve outcomes. The overall goal is to develop a complete, unified view of the customer to deliver personalized, relevant experiences across channels.
The document is a summary of Wyndham's divisions and brands from a 2014 budget review. It states that Wyndham is the world's largest hotel company based on number of hotels, with approximately 7,500 hotels and 646,900 rooms. It is also the world's largest lodging loyalty program, vacation ownership developer and marketer, vacation exchange network, and professionally managed vacation rentals business. Wyndham has over 900,000 owners of vacation ownership interests, 3.7 million exchange members, and sends approximately 4 million consumers on vacation through vacation rentals annually.
Tds north america strategy summit (nyc) personalization 2014-09-11bJonathan Isernhagen
Digital marketing personalization: recommendations about how to do it on the cheap, discussion of challenges, and a few examples of how it's been done well.
Algorithmic marketing channel attribution: why it's important, who is doing it, how it will change your business and how to decide what method is right for you.
The document discusses the future of digital measurement in marketing. It notes that the majority of global media consumption will soon be digital, so measurement tools need to account for this. Key challenges include cross-device tracking, determining touch point quality, location tracking, dealing with "walled gardens" like Facebook and iOS, and identity management across platforms. Unified measurement of both online and offline data will be needed. Addressing these challenges can improve marketing efficiencies by 10-30% according to research.
This document discusses the challenges of measuring marketing performance using proxy metrics like clicks and leads, and proposes a people-based measurement approach. It notes that people use multiple devices and touchpoints along their purchase journey, making attribution complex. The key points are:
1) Traditional metrics don't account for people interacting across channels and devices, so performance is mismeasured.
2) A people-based approach uses identity management to stitch together touchpoints into complete cross-device purchase paths.
3) This allows for improved attribution modelling to accurately allocate credits for awareness, engagement and sales across different marketing activities.
With the large influx of data such as transaction, interaction, and discrete information it is becoming increasingly more difficult to harness the power of big data to make insightful strategic decisions. This deck presents "The Digital Opportunity" that lies within the issue.
The document is a presentation on online advertising that covers:
1. An overview of the advertising industry and reasons for online advertising.
2. The different types of online advertising including search, display, and social media advertising.
3. Statistics on digital ad spending and usage in Canada.
4. Details on search advertising, display advertising, and social media advertising formats and metrics.
5. Future trends in online advertising like mobile commerce and multi-device usage.
This document discusses integrating marketing analytics and data-driven intelligence. It covers operationalizing digital data capture and integration, data-driven multi-channel outbound marketing, real-time inbound marketing and dynamic analytics, and creating adaptive customer experiences. The key aspects are consolidating customer data from various sources, driving value from integrated analytics, orchestrating the next best action for customers, and measuring performance to improve outcomes. The overall goal is to develop a complete, unified view of the customer to deliver personalized, relevant experiences across channels.
Rocet toronto nov 18 - Convergence of Revenue Management and Digital MarketingLoren Gray, CHDM
This document provides an overview of how revenue management and digital marketing can converge to create a symbiotic relationship. It discusses how analyzing customer data can help optimize pricing, forecasting, and marketing strategies. Various digital marketing tactics are also examined, like custom audiences on Facebook and isolating underperforming opportunities. The document emphasizes collaborating across teams to establish common goals and KPIs, ensure data integrity, and make informed business decisions through analytics.
How Big Brands Can Make Localized Advertising Work for ThemMomentFeed
In the mobile era consumers are demanding authentic and locally relevant content from big brands. Sixty-seven percent of smartphone users want ads customized to their city/zip code and 61% want ads customized to their immediate surroundings.
The problem marketers of big brands have is how to do this type of localized marketing at scale. If you have hundreds or even thousands of locations it doesn’t seem accessible to customize each one of your ads to tailor to that audience. In this webinar we’ll discuss the value of localized marketing and how “not-so-local” brands can be doing this in a scalable way. Watch on demand: http://info.momentfeed.com/CampaignsWebinar.html
This document discusses how to calculate return on investment (ROI) for local search marketing by building an offline-to-online attribution model. It notes that less than 3% of the search market currently does direct attribution. To show local ROI when direct attribution is not possible, the document recommends building a model that links local search behaviors to in-store visits and conversions. It provides an example of a local ROI model that calculates revenue by multiplying local search behaviors by conversion rates at each stage of an offline-to-online funnel. A case study example demonstrates a family entertainment business achieving a 261% sales lift and 1,920% ROI through local search optimization.
This is the presentation deck used by Loren Gray for the HSMAI British Columbia Chapters Presentation on Digital Marketing and Revenue Management Convergence in Hospitality
This document provides a summary of key digital marketing trends for 2014 from Milestone, including:
- Search is becoming more conversational with updates like Hummingbird that understand natural language and context.
- Social media is having a greater impact on search engine optimization.
- Mobile experiences must be prioritized with responsive design.
- Schema and semantic markup help search engines understand content.
- Local search and consistent business listings across platforms remain important.
View Tony Stagg's presentation from Rio SEO's Local Search Summit about how to get started with attribution and ahve a tracking and measurement methodology in place.
How to Turn a Data Driven Strategy into Dynamic ExperiencesHero Digital
Learn how to develop and execute a data driven experience strategy with Acquia Cloud integrating cross channel data sources to create user-optimized experiences. We'll explore how to define the foundation and create an execution plan for measurement and real-time optimization.
MomentFeed - The Social Marketing Platform for MobileMomentFeed
This document discusses the shift from desktop to mobile social media use and check-ins. It notes that US smartphone sales now outpace PC sales, Americans spend more time on Facebook's mobile app than its website, and 1 in 5 US smartphone owners use geolocation check-in services. This has led to social media being mobile-centric. It promotes a platform called MomentFeed that helps businesses manage their social media presence across multiple networks from a single interface, integrate customer check-ins and other content to boost engagement and sales, and measure performance against local competitors.
The Tomorrow Lab Presents - Bing Ads For Your BusinessThe Tomorrow Lab
Our headline speaker at the latest TTLPresents was Ashleigh Cochrane, from Microsoft, Bing Ads, who shared some of the new features of the Bing Ads platform.
Google's View on How Digital Assistants Have Raised Consumer Expectations for...Surefire Local
What if getting a new customer was as easy as asking for it?
The Age of Assistance is changing the customer journey for the home improvement industry. Voice-enabled devices like Google Assistant, Amazon's Alexa and Microsoft's Cortana are giving homeowners more control than ever before.
During this on-demand webinar, Google's own Patrick Tam, Strategic Partner Manager, SEM & Platform Partnerships, talks through key challenges and ways businesses can overcome them to rank high in voice-search within their local areas.
Facetime with an SEO Expert - Webmarketing123 webinarDemandWave
Time to revamp your SEO program and advance your rankings in 2013.
SEO continues to be the #1 source of online lead generation, but you need to make sure you're employing the right strategy for your business.
Download our slides to learn:
- Where you rank in relation to your competitors
- Revenue missed due to poor rankings of keywords most important to your business
- Actionable takeaways to improve your SEO program performance
The document discusses the problem of inaccurate venue data on platforms like Foursquare and Facebook, which can negatively impact brands. Approximately half of all venue data on these platforms is incorrect. Inaccurate data causes issues like venues being difficult to find, diminished marketing reach from duplicate venues, and lost sales opportunities from incorrect information. The solution presented is PinSync, a process that comprehensively manages venues by correcting geocodes, merging duplicates, and synchronizing accurate info to increase customer engagement and benefits for brands.
2020 trending digital marketing seo interview questions & answersShailendraSharma159
This document provides a list of 20 common digital marketing and SEO interview questions along with brief answers. It covers topics like Google ranking factors, cross linking, search engine updates, Google Analytics goals and events, Facebook pixels, conversions, and the launch dates of Google and SEO. The questions range from explaining technical terms to listing different campaign, ad group, and funnel types in Google Ads and Analytics.
Big Data & Analytics 101: How Customer Lifetime Value Enhances Predictive Mar...Big Cloud Analytics, Inc.
The document discusses how organizations can fund their big data and analytics initiatives through incremental revenues, cost savings, and more effective marketing spending. It outlines typical stages in a company's analytics journey and provides case studies showing how analytics has been used to increase revenues by 2.5x, decrease costs by $2,190, and improve customer satisfaction by 63%. The key message is that most companies are not fully leveraging the data they already have and that properly implemented analytics can significantly improve customer engagement and drive strong returns.
Understanding What's Working (Closely, Where2GetIt)Localogy
This document discusses Brandify's platform for measuring local marketing performance. It provides an example case study of how Brandify helped Alfred Angelo, a bridal retailer, improve their local marketing. Brandify conducted an audit of Alfred Angelo's online presence, reviews, and store data. They then provided insights into improving listings, reviews, and other metrics. Brandify's platform allows companies to track key metrics like reviews, ratings, and foot traffic to evaluate local marketing campaigns.
In our latest digital marketing event, digital advertising was the topic of the day and our PPC expert Ruth Cowan shared some PPC insights including 5 myths and why you shouldn't believe them.
Multi touch attribution & attribution modeling - GAUC Sydney Melbourne - 2013...Vinoaj Vijeyakumaar
This presentation was given at the Google Analytics User Conferences held in Sydney & Melbourne in June 2013. This presentation walks through moving beyond last-click attribution and harnessing Google Analytics' Attribution Modeling Tool to establish your ideal digital media mix. In it we cover the basics of multi-touch attribution, getting started with the Google Analytics Attribution Modeling Tool, and Custom Models. We also walk through a case study where Amari Hotels were able to increase sales by 45% simply by reallocating their digital marketing budgets based on insights gained from the Attribution Modeling Tool.
Here are a few of the common marketing attribution models: first click attribution, last click attribution, linear attribution, last adwords click attribution, time decay attribution, position based attribution, last non-direct attribution and custom attribution.
In this era where a customer is connecting with your brand through multiple channels, find out how each channel is contributing towards your bottom line, and how to calculate its true ROI.
Operational SEO Big Think - The Importance of Good Technical SEOpeterecob
The document discusses the importance of technical SEO and the steps MoneySuperMarket is taking to improve it. It introduces the technical SEO engineer, Peter Ecob, and describes how MoneySuperMarket has evolved by dedicating more resources to technical SEO like a technical SEO team. It highlights how MoneySuperMarket is addressing legacy issues, conducting regular audits to fix technical problems, taking advantage of opportunities like structured data, and educating the business on technical SEO best practices.
Rocet toronto nov 18 - Convergence of Revenue Management and Digital MarketingLoren Gray, CHDM
This document provides an overview of how revenue management and digital marketing can converge to create a symbiotic relationship. It discusses how analyzing customer data can help optimize pricing, forecasting, and marketing strategies. Various digital marketing tactics are also examined, like custom audiences on Facebook and isolating underperforming opportunities. The document emphasizes collaborating across teams to establish common goals and KPIs, ensure data integrity, and make informed business decisions through analytics.
How Big Brands Can Make Localized Advertising Work for ThemMomentFeed
In the mobile era consumers are demanding authentic and locally relevant content from big brands. Sixty-seven percent of smartphone users want ads customized to their city/zip code and 61% want ads customized to their immediate surroundings.
The problem marketers of big brands have is how to do this type of localized marketing at scale. If you have hundreds or even thousands of locations it doesn’t seem accessible to customize each one of your ads to tailor to that audience. In this webinar we’ll discuss the value of localized marketing and how “not-so-local” brands can be doing this in a scalable way. Watch on demand: http://info.momentfeed.com/CampaignsWebinar.html
This document discusses how to calculate return on investment (ROI) for local search marketing by building an offline-to-online attribution model. It notes that less than 3% of the search market currently does direct attribution. To show local ROI when direct attribution is not possible, the document recommends building a model that links local search behaviors to in-store visits and conversions. It provides an example of a local ROI model that calculates revenue by multiplying local search behaviors by conversion rates at each stage of an offline-to-online funnel. A case study example demonstrates a family entertainment business achieving a 261% sales lift and 1,920% ROI through local search optimization.
This is the presentation deck used by Loren Gray for the HSMAI British Columbia Chapters Presentation on Digital Marketing and Revenue Management Convergence in Hospitality
This document provides a summary of key digital marketing trends for 2014 from Milestone, including:
- Search is becoming more conversational with updates like Hummingbird that understand natural language and context.
- Social media is having a greater impact on search engine optimization.
- Mobile experiences must be prioritized with responsive design.
- Schema and semantic markup help search engines understand content.
- Local search and consistent business listings across platforms remain important.
View Tony Stagg's presentation from Rio SEO's Local Search Summit about how to get started with attribution and ahve a tracking and measurement methodology in place.
How to Turn a Data Driven Strategy into Dynamic ExperiencesHero Digital
Learn how to develop and execute a data driven experience strategy with Acquia Cloud integrating cross channel data sources to create user-optimized experiences. We'll explore how to define the foundation and create an execution plan for measurement and real-time optimization.
MomentFeed - The Social Marketing Platform for MobileMomentFeed
This document discusses the shift from desktop to mobile social media use and check-ins. It notes that US smartphone sales now outpace PC sales, Americans spend more time on Facebook's mobile app than its website, and 1 in 5 US smartphone owners use geolocation check-in services. This has led to social media being mobile-centric. It promotes a platform called MomentFeed that helps businesses manage their social media presence across multiple networks from a single interface, integrate customer check-ins and other content to boost engagement and sales, and measure performance against local competitors.
The Tomorrow Lab Presents - Bing Ads For Your BusinessThe Tomorrow Lab
Our headline speaker at the latest TTLPresents was Ashleigh Cochrane, from Microsoft, Bing Ads, who shared some of the new features of the Bing Ads platform.
Google's View on How Digital Assistants Have Raised Consumer Expectations for...Surefire Local
What if getting a new customer was as easy as asking for it?
The Age of Assistance is changing the customer journey for the home improvement industry. Voice-enabled devices like Google Assistant, Amazon's Alexa and Microsoft's Cortana are giving homeowners more control than ever before.
During this on-demand webinar, Google's own Patrick Tam, Strategic Partner Manager, SEM & Platform Partnerships, talks through key challenges and ways businesses can overcome them to rank high in voice-search within their local areas.
Facetime with an SEO Expert - Webmarketing123 webinarDemandWave
Time to revamp your SEO program and advance your rankings in 2013.
SEO continues to be the #1 source of online lead generation, but you need to make sure you're employing the right strategy for your business.
Download our slides to learn:
- Where you rank in relation to your competitors
- Revenue missed due to poor rankings of keywords most important to your business
- Actionable takeaways to improve your SEO program performance
The document discusses the problem of inaccurate venue data on platforms like Foursquare and Facebook, which can negatively impact brands. Approximately half of all venue data on these platforms is incorrect. Inaccurate data causes issues like venues being difficult to find, diminished marketing reach from duplicate venues, and lost sales opportunities from incorrect information. The solution presented is PinSync, a process that comprehensively manages venues by correcting geocodes, merging duplicates, and synchronizing accurate info to increase customer engagement and benefits for brands.
2020 trending digital marketing seo interview questions & answersShailendraSharma159
This document provides a list of 20 common digital marketing and SEO interview questions along with brief answers. It covers topics like Google ranking factors, cross linking, search engine updates, Google Analytics goals and events, Facebook pixels, conversions, and the launch dates of Google and SEO. The questions range from explaining technical terms to listing different campaign, ad group, and funnel types in Google Ads and Analytics.
Big Data & Analytics 101: How Customer Lifetime Value Enhances Predictive Mar...Big Cloud Analytics, Inc.
The document discusses how organizations can fund their big data and analytics initiatives through incremental revenues, cost savings, and more effective marketing spending. It outlines typical stages in a company's analytics journey and provides case studies showing how analytics has been used to increase revenues by 2.5x, decrease costs by $2,190, and improve customer satisfaction by 63%. The key message is that most companies are not fully leveraging the data they already have and that properly implemented analytics can significantly improve customer engagement and drive strong returns.
Understanding What's Working (Closely, Where2GetIt)Localogy
This document discusses Brandify's platform for measuring local marketing performance. It provides an example case study of how Brandify helped Alfred Angelo, a bridal retailer, improve their local marketing. Brandify conducted an audit of Alfred Angelo's online presence, reviews, and store data. They then provided insights into improving listings, reviews, and other metrics. Brandify's platform allows companies to track key metrics like reviews, ratings, and foot traffic to evaluate local marketing campaigns.
In our latest digital marketing event, digital advertising was the topic of the day and our PPC expert Ruth Cowan shared some PPC insights including 5 myths and why you shouldn't believe them.
Multi touch attribution & attribution modeling - GAUC Sydney Melbourne - 2013...Vinoaj Vijeyakumaar
This presentation was given at the Google Analytics User Conferences held in Sydney & Melbourne in June 2013. This presentation walks through moving beyond last-click attribution and harnessing Google Analytics' Attribution Modeling Tool to establish your ideal digital media mix. In it we cover the basics of multi-touch attribution, getting started with the Google Analytics Attribution Modeling Tool, and Custom Models. We also walk through a case study where Amari Hotels were able to increase sales by 45% simply by reallocating their digital marketing budgets based on insights gained from the Attribution Modeling Tool.
Here are a few of the common marketing attribution models: first click attribution, last click attribution, linear attribution, last adwords click attribution, time decay attribution, position based attribution, last non-direct attribution and custom attribution.
In this era where a customer is connecting with your brand through multiple channels, find out how each channel is contributing towards your bottom line, and how to calculate its true ROI.
Operational SEO Big Think - The Importance of Good Technical SEOpeterecob
The document discusses the importance of technical SEO and the steps MoneySuperMarket is taking to improve it. It introduces the technical SEO engineer, Peter Ecob, and describes how MoneySuperMarket has evolved by dedicating more resources to technical SEO like a technical SEO team. It highlights how MoneySuperMarket is addressing legacy issues, conducting regular audits to fix technical problems, taking advantage of opportunities like structured data, and educating the business on technical SEO best practices.
Attribution 101 provides an overview of full-funnel attribution and measurement for online media. Presented by Steve Latham, founder and ceo of Encore Media Metrics.
For a copy please send a request to info(at)encoremetrics.com or visit http://Attribution101.com
Reduce, Reuse, Recycle: How Moneysupermarket.com Created APIs Without Startin...CA API Management
The evolutThe evolution of the API’s used byMoneysupermarket.com’s highly successful Car Insurance application. Faced with having to re-engineer the entire application to meet the increasingly demands of security, accuracy & scale – how we incrementally refactored our application to create an OAUTH 2.0 API using Layer 7ion of the API’s used byMoneysupermarket.com’s highly successful Car Insurance application. Faced with having to re-engineer the entire application to meet the increasingly demands of security, accuracy & scale – how we incrementally refactored our application to create an OAUTH 2.0 API using Layer 7
The document discusses attribution modeling and optimization. It notes that traditional attribution approaches have limitations and measure channels in silos. The presentation advocates for a data-driven attribution approach using a unified user-level view to map the customer journey across channels. This allows marketers to understand how channels work together and identify opportunities to optimize spending across channels to improve marketing ROI. Case studies on Lenovo's attribution initiatives and results are also discussed.
MoneySupermarket.com: Customer Case Study - Layer 7 API Management Workshop L...CA API Management
This presentation was a customer case study presentation in Layer 7's API Management Workshop - London to show how the Layer 7 API Proxy can help enterprises expose APIs to leverage innovative ways for reaching new customers, create new revenue opportunities and transform business' into platforms. The API Proxy makes it simple for enterprises to:
- Secure APIs against attack and misuse
- Define and enforce API rate limits and SLA metrics
- Implement OAuth and SAML access methods
- Translate between JSON and XML
- Track and report on API usage and performance
- Mediate between API versions
Simon Nixon founded price comparison website Moneysupermarket.com in the 1990s and floated it on the stock market for £850 million. He spotted opportunities in the emerging broadband market to allow consumers to compare financial products online. This changed the marketplace by forcing providers to cut rates to compete. While others have copied the model, Nixon's first-mover advantage means Moneysupermarket remains the largest price comparison site globally. Floating the business benefited staff who had shareholdings.
Digital Marketing Directions: Three Trends Shaping 2014 Hospitality Internet ...Tim Peter
2014 introduces the largest disruption of hotel internet marketing in years, with changes in mobile, content marketing, and search putting more pressure on hotels and resorts. This presentation delivered to HSMAI highlights those changes and how travel marketers can take advantage to help their brands and their businesses succeed in a complex marketplace.
A Kanban Case Study At MoneySuperMarketThoughtworks
The document discusses Kanban concepts for software development including making all work visible through a Kanban board, limiting work-in-progress to increase flow, and using queues, buffers, and limits to manage workflow from analysis through deployment and into a portfolio. It also touches on techniques like maximizing throughput, pulling work rather than pushing it, reducing multitasking, enhancing teamwork, and stopping starting and starting to finish.
Digital Marketing Success for Travel and Tourism Websitestrainingaid
The document provides an outline and content for a digital marketing master class for travel and tourism websites. It discusses key topics such as developing a digital marketing strategy, focusing on goals and metrics, search engine optimization, content marketing, and using examples from successful travel brands. The presentation aims to provide travel professionals with best practices and strategies for optimizing their online presence and digital marketing efforts.
Attribution modeling allows marketers to analyze how different ads or touchpoints contribute to sales over time, rather than only crediting the last interaction. This provides a more accurate understanding of each channel's influence on consumer decisions. Setting up an effective attribution model is challenging, as marketers must determine the appropriate credit to assign to each touchpoint while accounting for various other factors. Successful models require extensive testing and recalibration over long periods to ensure ads receive accurate credit.
1. The document discusses how to focus marketing efforts on the most important metrics and the parts of the story that drive sales.
2. It recommends measuring the right metrics for each marketing program and experimenting with new tactics while evaluating results to optimize programs over time.
3. Examples are provided of how one dealership improved their Google+ score through review management, increased website leads through testing different content, and optimized website conversion.
The document discusses different monetization models for mobile apps such as paid/premium, freemium/free-to-play, mcommerce, advertising, lead generation/affiliate, and data. It then discusses how brands and app marketers can measure ROI without direct monetization by looking at metrics like LTV, retention, and virality. Finally, it proposes four approaches - using CPx targets, virtual revenue modeling, focusing on brand KPIs, and assigning value to user data - for measuring user acquisition effectiveness for alternative app business models like branded apps, growth-funded apps, and apps of classifieds.
Key learnings:
-New trends and data points around customer behaviour from 2020
-Channels that will continue to deliver on ROI for marketers across the digital world
-Leveraging marketing automation and fraud protection solutions for your user acquisition
-Anticipated changes in customer behaviour and planning better for 2021
Driving Sales - Metrics That Matter - 2015-10Dave Spannhake
This document outlines a presentation given at a conference on digital automotive marketing. The presentation discussed how most car shoppers do not submit dealer leads online and instead prefer to research vehicles themselves on manufacturer and dealer sites. It also noted that vehicle identification number (VIN) views are strongly correlated with vehicle sales. The presentation provided tips on setting goals and metrics in Google Analytics to measure customer engagement, including a dedicated "VINvertising Dashboard" template and recommendations for assigning values to different goals like website leads or test drives. Attendees were encouraged to measure shopping behavior through goals to better understand customer online research and buying patterns.
Attribution or Misattribution? How to make digital measurement less awful - N...Mezzo Labs
Nic Pietersma presented Attribution or Misattribution? How to make digital measurement less awful. Nic put on his commercial hat to discuss common errors seen repeated time and time again. He discussed the idea that there may not be a single right way to do things, but recognising the wrong way is the first step on the path to improvement.
This document provides an overview of web analytics and Google Analytics. It defines web analytics, discusses ways to analyze data both traditionally and through the web analytics paradigm. It also covers setting up goals and funnels in Google Analytics, using segments, alerts and enhanced ecommerce tracking. A key section discusses attribution modeling and how to set up a custom attribution model based on an understanding of your business and customer journey.
Taming the Big Data Beast to Drive More Internet SalesVickie Gibbs
Big data is a term that is thrown around quite a bit. But what is it and how can it help you drive more Internet sales from your website? This presentation will break down what metrics to track and how to improve 3 specific areas: driving the right traffic to your website, converting more visitors to leads on your website, and closing more internet leads to sales.
In this FREE business-to-business event, hosted by the Oregonian Media Group, our experts explained how to develop a winning strategy with display advertising to attract customers to help businesses grow.
The document discusses why companies should choose native mobile apps over mobile web apps. It notes that native apps provide a better user experience through deeper interactions and automatic playing of audio/video. They are also found through app store searches, allowing companies to "own" space on the user's home screen. While native apps require developing for each platform, they are easier to monetize and where most mobile users spend their time. The document then provides tips for developing successful native apps, including building engaging apps, getting promoted in app stores, and using analytics to improve apps and marketing.
The new Google Analytics 4 will become the new standard in digital analytics with Universal Google Analytics sunsetting July 2023. GA4 can automatically alert you to significant trends in your data, provide insights from your data, and even help you anticipate future actions your customers may take with predictive analytics. By the end of this presentation, attendees will create better integrations with their current marketing platforms for a more complete cross-channel analytics view of a customer journey. The presentation will cover technical GA4 skills to utilize for data import audiences, funnel explorations, events and conversions, and consent mode.
7 Traits of Highly Effective Digital Commerce OrganizationsSameer Khan
Commerce technology spending is up across the board. Retailers are significantly bolstering their capital investment programs. 85% will increase their spend on commerce technology in 2015. Is your organization prepared for the next generation of digital business?
Data Integration and Marketing Attribution ROIVENUE™
Microsoft and ROIVENUE™ have teamed up to provide a glimpse into the benefits of integrating all your marketing data. All about the latest advancements in data management powered by Azure and how ROIVENUE™ helps marketers identify where to best allocate their digital spend with our Marketing Attribution models and Budget Optimizer™.
This document discusses optimizing marketing for mobile presence. It provides an overview of Stream:20, a digital marketing consultancy, and their approach to benchmarking and improving clients' mobile and digital strategies. They assess clients across 29 core digital marketing areas and provide strategic support. The document emphasizes that mobile now accounts for 20-50% of traffic but conversions are often lower. It suggests optimizing organizational structures and skills for digital and mobile success.
Marketing in the Moment: Trends and Innovations in Real-Time Omni-Channel Mar...Ensighten
Presented by Dave Chaffey, CEO and Co-Founder, Smart Insights
Better understanding and acting on the holistic customer journey is paramount to success for today’s marketers. Reaching that goal, however, has become increasingly complicated due to an explosion of disparate technologies and fragmented data sources. How can marketers collect and stitch together the customer data they need, and then act upon that information to drive results? Join digital marketing expert Dave Chaffey as he discusses the latest trends, innovations and best practices for driving more timely and relevant interactions across touch points. Dave will discuss the opportunities and challenges for real-time personalization; give examples of what leading brands are doing today; and talk about how more and more brands are turning to the customer data platform (CDP) and other core technologies to accelerate their initiatives.
Leveraging Customer Lifetime Value for user acquisition campaignsAppLift
Learn how to:
- track
- compute
- and leverage
Customer Lifetime Value for the user acquisition campaigns of your mobile games.
Featuring industry experts Eric Seufert from Wooga, James Peng from Storm8 and Simon Kendall from adjust by adeven. Get the right users!
This document summarizes a webinar on digital marketing best practices. The webinar covers mapping the digital sales funnel, benchmarking digital success through conversion analysis, building an action plan, and getting a live site analysis. Key topics discussed include analyzing conversion rates by channel, device and offer type; measuring SEO and SEM metrics like organic traffic, qualified leads, sales pipeline and revenue; and choosing the right bidding strategy for goals like lead generation or maximizing profit. The webinar encourages scheduling a free site consultation to analyze a company's digital strategy.
This document is a slide deck from a webinar presented by Webmarketing123 on paid search strategies. The webinar covered 3 steps to improve SEM management and ROI, 4 steps to create advertising that drives sales, and 4 steps to capture the "always-on" customer. Key recommendations included measuring financial metrics like revenue and profit, optimizing bidding strategies, auditing campaign performance, rethinking mobile and cross-device targeting, optimizing PLAs, and launching remarketing campaigns. Case studies showed improved results for various clients from these paid search tactics.
Best Practice Audience Segmentation for App Retargeting: Early and Late Stag...Adjust
Audience segmentation is perhaps the most important aspect of any marketing strategy. But too often app marketers overlook the importance of a well-thought-out approach to segmentation. We’ll show you what an advanced segmentation strategy can look like, as well as some best practices for getting started with audience segmentation.
What you will learn:
- Why is an audience segmentation strategy necessary?
- What events to track to segment your app’s audience
- How to optimize your retargeting campaigns with audience segmentation
- Some practical segmentation examples
You can find the full video here: https://youtu.be/XYKGL9Btfm0
Similar to Digital Travel Summit LAS 2015 - Confronting The Challenges Of Attribution Modeling In A Multi-Device Environment (20)
2. 2014 Budget Review
Presentation agenda
1) The importance of cross-device tracking
2) Our mission as marketers
3) ROI components
a) Spend
b) Variable contribution
4) Algorithmic attribution
a) DIY
b) Evaluating vendors
5) Take-aways
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
3. 2014 Budget Review
Device ubiquity
>60% of US adults
use 2 devices/day
>20% use 3 devices
>40% jump devices
during one activity.
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
https://www.facebook.com/business/news/Finding-simplicity-in-a-multi-device-world
>53% of those with 2 devices jump between them
>77% of those with 3 devices jump among them
22% land on a tablet, 58% land on a laptop
4. 2014 Budget Review
Cross-device tracking (the importance of)
Definition: “…the myriad ways platforms,
publishers and ad tech companies try to identify
Internet users across smartphones, tablets and
desktop computers.”
Important because:
1) Gives visibility to devices’ roles in purchase path
2) “retargeting on mobile is impossible without it.”
3) Algorithmic attribution is inaccurate “ “ “ “
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
John McDermott, http://digiday.com/platforms/wtf-cross-device-tracking/
5. 2014 Budget Review
Presentation agenda
1) The importance of cross-device tracking
2) Our mission as marketers
3) ROI components
a) Spend
b) Variable contribution
4) Algorithmic attribution
a) DIY
b) Evaluating vendors
5) Take-aways
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
6. 2014 Budget Review
CEO’s/our duty to the (publicly-traded) company
• Brand awareness /
sentiment?
• Client loyalty?
• Employee satisfaction?
• Traffic to the site?
• Shopper movement
down the funnel?
• Transaction volumes?
• Shareholder value?
• Customer focus /
personalization?
• Community
involvement through
charitable actions?
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
Maximize which one of the following metrics….
7. 2014 Budget Review
Example: Apple, Inc.
“Apple's Board of Directors oversees the Chief
Executive Officer and other senior management in the
competent and ethical operation of Apple on a day-to-
day basis and assures that the long-term interests of
shareholders are being served.
Source: http://investor.apple.com/governance.cfm
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
8. 2014 Budget Review
Increase spending until $1 out brings $1 back…
….spend-spend-spend-spend-spend-stop
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
9. 2014 Budget Review
…which is the point at which incremental ROI = 0%
- 9 -
ROI = (VCM – Spend)
Spend
Abbreviation Term Definition
ROI Return on Investment
Indicator of investment profitability.
Positive = good.
VCM Variable Contribution Margin
The amount of profit driven by a given
transaction.
Spend Channel Spend
The amount spent driving traffic to the
site during the period in question
Calculated over a specified time period of investment and return.
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
10. 2014 Budget Review
Our goal: an ROI Dashboard
Channel* Desktop Tablet Mobile
Brand 20%
Brand SEM 62% 51% 38%
Display -5% -12% -7%
Display - Retargeting 26% 25% 29%
Email 250%
Meta search 18% 22% 10%
Non-brand SEM -30% -18% -40%
SEO 500% 520% 390%
Social media -5% -15% 15%
- 10 -
*of impression/click, not necessarily of consumer conversion
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
11. 2014 Budget Review
Presentation agenda
1) The importance of cross-device tracking
2) Our mission as marketers
3) ROI components
a) Spend
b) Variable contribution
4) Algorithmic attribution
a) DIY
b) Evaluating vendors
5) Take-aways
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
12. 2014 Budget Review
ROI = (VCM – Spend)
Spend
Spend
- 12 -
Which spend do you include?
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
14. 2014 Budget Review
spend
spendspendspend
How changes in spend can mess up ROI
- 14 -
$
time
profit
impact impact
spend
impact
Jan Feb Mar
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
15. 2014 Budget Review
Variable Contribution Margin (“VCM”)
- 15 -
ROI = (VCM – Spend)
Spend
1) What is the profit from each transaction?
2) Which channels deserve part/all of the
credit for driving each transaction?
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
16. 2014 Budget Review
VCM: the profit on each transaction
= Transaction revenue - variable non-marketing expenses:
• Revenue:
– Supplier Commissions;
– GDS incentives;
– Overrides (lumpy: average/booking must be assumed)
– Media (not transaction-driven, but has to be modeled in
somewhere)
– Attached bookings / Lifetime value: try to gauge value without
double-counting
• Expenses:
– Website hosting/capacity costs
– Data processing expenses
– Other expenses which vary by transaction or site activity volume
- 16 - jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
17. 2014 Budget Review
Which treatment(s) triggered the purchase?
"Half the money I spend
on advertising is wasted;
the trouble is,
I don't know which half.“
-John Wanamaker
Father of Modern Advertising
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
18. 2014 Budget Review
Presentation agenda
1) The importance of cross-device tracking
2) Our mission as marketers
3) ROI components
a) Spend
b) Variable contribution
4) Algorithmic attribution
a) DIY
b) Evaluating vendors
5) Take-aways
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
19. 2014 Budget Review
How badly do you want to know?
Raylan: You'll pay to find that out.
Boyd: What are you packing?
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
20. 2014 Budget Review
Choosing your attribution strategy
Do you want/need
true attribution*?
Do you have
data guys?
Do they have
bandwidth for this?
Yes
No
No
Use your site
metric solution’s
attribution
Yes
Yes
Hire a vendor
Can you access
your data?
Yes
No
*Do you have:
1) Large enough budget?
2) Multiple channels?
3) Belief in ROI “knowability?”
DIY
No
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
21. 2014 Budget Review
• Sends
• Opens
Collecting the necessary data
Analysis
space
• Clicks
• Visitors
• Transactions
• VCM
• Media impressions
Site metrics tool
Back office system
• Channel-specific
phone #s
Email service provider
Call Center IVR
• Impressions
• Clicks
• Spend
Display ad server
e.g. SAS, Revolution Analytics,
SPSS, Teradata Warehouse Miner
SEM bid management tool
• Impressions
• Clicks
• Spend
• GRPs
• Spend
Television plan
• Impressions
• Clicks
• Spend
Meta search feeds
Spend
Manual spend entry table
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
22. 2014 Budget Review
Connecting the necessary data
Transactions Profiles Customers
Sessions
∞ 1∞ 1
Clicks:TransactionsClicks ∞ 11 ∞
∞ 1∞ 1
Calls
Sends
Opens
∞
1
∞
1
Email
IVR
GRPs
TV plan
Impressions
Ad server
Impressions
∞ 1
∞ 1
∞ 1
Back officeSite monitoring tool CRM system
1 ∞
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
23. 2014 Budget Review
Profile deduplication is crucial
Profiles Customers∞ 1
CRM system
1) App registration information tied to desktop profile
2) Logged-in customer information on multiple devices
3) E-mails sent to same address opened on multiple devices
4) Third-party services with network visibility
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
24. 2014 Budget Review
Impressions are also important
This example overcredits impressions (excludes other channels)
but it gives some idea of the sub-surface portion of the
impressions iceberg.
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
26. 2014 Budget Review
Criteria for attribution vendor evaluation
1) Independence / media neutrality
2) Independent data collection
3) Cross-device natively
4) Brand search & affiliate conversion controls
5) Programmatic capability
6) Ad viewability
7) Time to onboard
8) Cost
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
27. 2014 Budget Review
Independence – Media agnostic
Vendor Independent Score
Abakus Yes 1
AOL/Convertro No 0
C3 Metrics Yes 1
eBay/Clearsaleing No 0
Adometry/Google No 0
Marketing Evolution Yes 1
Marketshare Yes 1
Rakuten DC Storm No 0
Visual IQ Yes 1
- 27 - jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
Vendors owned by Media companies are not considered
neutral and scored with a value of 0. Independent
vendors are scored with the value of 1.
28. 2014 Budget Review
Independent data collection
Vendor Collect own data Score
Abakus No 0
AOL/Convertro Yes 1
C3 Metrics Yes 1
eBay/Clearsaleing Yes 1
Adometry/Google Yes 1
Marketing Evolution No 0
Marketshare No 0
Rakuten DC Storm Yes 1
Visual IQ No 0
- 28 - jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
Vendors which collect their own data via tags are scored
with the value of 1. Vendors which do not collect data
are scored with a 0.
29. 2014 Budget Review
Cross-device visibility native to the platform
Vendor Cross-device visibility Score
Abakus No 0
AOL/Convertro Yes 1
C3 Metrics Yes 1
eBay/Clearsaleing No 0
Adometry/Google No 1*
Marketing Evolution No 0
Marketshare No 0
Rakuten DC Storm No 0
Visual IQ No 0
- 29 - jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
Vendors which provide cross-device native to the platform for no
additional fee are scored with a value of 1, other vendors who
either do not provide the service or who require an additional
vendor are scored with a value of 0. (*coming in mid-2015)
30. 2014 Budget Review
Brand search & affiliate conversion controls
Vendor Conversion controls Score
Abakus No 0
AOL/Convertro Yes 1
C3 Metrics Yes 1
eBay/Clearsaleing No 0
Adometry/Google Yes 1
Marketing Evolution No 0
Marketshare No 0
Rakuten DC Storm No 0
Visual IQ No 0
- 30 - jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
Brand search, Affiliates and other vendors dominate activity at the
bottom of the funnel. Vendors which are able to control for this
activity within the model are scored with a value of 1, vendors
which have not addressed this issue are scored with a value of 0.
31. 2014 Budget Review
Programmatic capability
Vendor Programmatic Score
Abakus No 0
AOL/Convertro Yes 1
C3 Metrics Yes 1
eBay/Clearsaleing No 0
Adometry/Google Yes 1
Marketing Evolution No 0
Marketshare No 0
Rakuten DC Storm No 0
Visual IQ No 0
- 31 - jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
Programmatic capability requires independent view tags and
integration with trading desks and Ad Networks. Vendors which
have this capability are scored with the value of 1, vendors which
do not are scored with a value of 0.
32. 2014 Budget Review
Display ad viewability audit
Vendor Display audit Score
Abakus No 0
AOL/Convertro No 0
C3 Metrics Yes 1
eBay/Clearsaleing No 0
Adometry/Google Yes 1*
Marketing Evolution No 0
Marketshare No 0
Rakuten DC Storm No 0
Visual IQ No 0
- 32 - jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
Greater than 50% of all display ads are never seen. Vendors which
have integrated viewability which accounts for cross-domain iframe
ads are scored with a value of 1, other vendors which cannot
determine viewability are scored with a value of 0. (*4Q15)
33. 2014 Budget Review
Time to onboard
Vendor Time to onboard Score
Abakus 1 month 1
AOL/Convertro 2 months 0
C3 Metrics 7 days 1
eBay/Clearsaleing 1.5 months 1
Adometry/Google 3 months 0
Marketing Evolution 1.5 months 1
Marketshare 1 month 1
Rakuten DC Storm 3 months 0
Visual IQ 3 months 0
- 33 - jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
Time to onboard is crucial as recommendations from any platform
cannot be considered until the platform is fully live. Vendors which
are able to onboard in less than 2 months are scored with a value 1.
Vendors requiring 2 months or more are scored with a value of 0.
34. 2014 Budget Review
Cost
Vendor Cost/year Contract period Score
Abakus $50K - $150K Yearly 1
AOL/Convertro $60K - $1M Yearly 0
C3 Metrics $60K - $150K Monthly 1
eBay/Clearsaleing $60K - $850K Yearly 1
Adometry/Google $275K - $300K Yearly 0
Marketing Evolution $150K - $1M Yearly 1
Marketshare $200K - $1M Three-yearly 1
Rakuten DC Storm $170K Yearly 0
Visual IQ $325K - $1M Yearly 0
- 34 - jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
Vendors with a minimum yearly fee of less than $100,000 are
scored with a value of 1. Vendors with minimum yearly fees
exceeding $100,000 are scored with a value of 0.
36. 2014 Budget Review
Running the process
1) For each site visitor
a) Assemble visit history
b) Create variables to represent:
i. Channel impressions
ii. Channel clicks
iii.Past purchases
2) Regress or use machine learning algorithm
a) Ascertain which channel touches predict booking
b) Give VCM credit to causal channels
3) Calculate ROI
a) Use each channel’s VCM and spend
b) Where ROI is positive, spend up
c) Where ROI is negative, cut spend or change tactics
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
37. 2014 Budget Review
ROI Dashboard
Channel* Desktop Tablet Mobile
Brand 20%
Brand SEM 62% 51% 38%
Display -5% -12% -7%
Display - Retargeting 26% 25% 29%
Email 250%
Meta search 18% 22% 10%
Non-brand SEM -30% -18% -40%
SEO 500% 520% 390%
Social media -5% -15% 15%
- 37 -
*of impression/click, not necessarily of consumer conversion
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
38. 2014 Budget Review
Presentation agenda
1) The importance of….
a) Cross-device tracking
b) Channel ROI calculation
2) ROI components
a) Spend
b) Variable contribution
3) Algorithmic attribution
a) Marshalling the data
b) Evaluating vendors
4) Take-aways
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
39. 2014 Budget Review
Take-aways
1) Cross-device shopping is here to stay (until/unless
phablet experience massively improves).
2) ROI is the one true KPI
a) Algorithmic attribution is the only way to calculate it
b) “ “ is becoming more affordable
c) Each time you find yourself agonizing over a channel
marketing spend decision, revisit your choice not to do
algorithmic attribution.
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
40. 2014 Budget Review
Cross-device tracking: four methods
• Deterministic (e.g. Facebook, Twitter): publishers
and platforms ask their users to sign in to their
websites and apps on every device they use
• Probabilistic (Drawbridge, Tapad): ad tech
companies…aggregate information about ads
served on smartphones, tablets and desktops,
and then use statistical models to infer who is
using which device….with 60-90% accuracy.
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
John McDermott, http://digiday.com/platforms/wtf-cross-device-tracking/
41. 2014 Budget Review
Cross-device tracking: four methods (cont’d)
• Householding: Where different devices can be
seen on one IP range and are combined with
home data, behavior and more, they can be
inferred as the same user.
• Data links: Apps that can hear TV sounds, QR
codes, NFC and more data links can join up
devices to TV, print and outdoor for a cross-
channel approach (more than cross-device).
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
Robert Webster, http://crimtan.com/cross-device-tracking-dont-believe-the-hype/
42. 2014 Budget Review
Algorithmic attribution per Visual IQ:
Top Down (MMO) & Bottom Up (Fractional Attribution)
42
SUMMARY LEVEL DATA USER LEVEL DATA
CHANNELS Offline + digital cross channel Digital media channels
ROLE
Strategic: Optimize spend across
channels
Tactical: Generates granular
media recommendations
OUTPUT Cross channel insight Full fractional attribution
CAPTURES Seasonality and external factors
Interplay between digital touch
point and channels
PREDICTABLE
GRANULARITY
Conversions at aggregate level Propensity to convert at user level
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
43. 2014 Budget Review
“Given all the history we know, how likely is this shopper to convert soon?”
Datasong answers with a 2-stage model:
• -Are Brand shoppers (BSEM, BSEO, DTI) likely to book? Yes
• -Did your last TV spot cause their brand loyalty? Maybe
Algorithmic attribution per DataSong:
Survival Modeling
Model 2
Accuracy 81%
Model 1
Accuracy 68%
0
0.5
1
0 0.5 1
NonConverters Converters
0
0.5
1
0 0.5 1
NonConverters Converters
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
44. 2014 Budget Review
Algorithmic attribution per DataSong:
Survival Modeling
1) Axes show the time since last channel exposure
2) Dots represent Converters vs. nonConverters
3) Orange line represents the relationship between
2 variables, e.g.:
a) time since last email and
b) time since last affiliate visit
4) Responders: everyone above the line. We count the
folks above the line and see what our accuracy is
5) Attribution: once satisfied with a model(s), we’d:
a) take a given order,
b) see the time since last email and affiliate and based on
the timing, and;
c) where we are on the orange line, so;
d) we have a means to allocate which was more causal.
0
0.5
1
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
NonConverters Converters
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
45. 2014 Budget Review
Survival Modeling: DIY
Recommended by one
of our PhD statisticians.
“SAS usage is not
necessary.”
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
46. 2014 Budget Review
- 46 -
Algorithmic attribution per Google:
Interaction Method (“Shapley value”)
Brand
SEM Email
2%
Conversion
Brand
SEM Email
3%
Conversion
Every combination (“coalition”) of clicks is tested.
“How important is each player to the overall cooperation?”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shapley_value
Display
jonathan.isernhagen@wyn.com @jon_isernhagen
Editor's Notes
Hi, my name is Jonathan Isernhagen and by now you know me and the novelty has completely worn off.
I want to start out by discussing the importance of cross-device tracking and our mission as marketers.
Then dive into the components of channel ROI
Which leads directly into algorithmic attribution.
Facebook commissioned a study of more than 2,000 wired adults by market research agency GfK. They discovered the following:
According to John McDermott, cross-device tracking is defined as…
I want to start out by discussing our mission as marketers.
Then dive into the components of ROI
Which leads us into attribution
I keep using this slide because it always seems necessary.
These are all areas of focus which other speakers should be our companies’ top priorities.
By show of hands, what is the mission of the CEO of a publically-traded company….?
As an example, here’s the first paragraph of the governance section of the first page of Apple’s investor relation site.
The CEO who fails to do his or her best to maximize the value of the company’s shares of stock is literally breaking the law. And all of us work for the CEO.
The way Marketing supports the CEO in this effort is by spending in each marketing channel up to the point where one additional dollar out nets us exactly one dollar of incremental profit back.
This is the point for each channel where the incremental ROI flips negative.
We calculate ROI using:
Spend: how much we spend on a marketing channel over some period of time, and
Variable contribution: the amount of profit that spend has created.
When we do this calculation for each channel, our finished product is an ROI dashboard.
This is the foundation upon which every CMO’s channel allocation decisions should be made.
I want to start out by discussing our mission as marketers.
Then dive into the components of ROI
Which leads us into
The first component is spend, but what spend do we include?
Marketing is a lot like farming in that we are always scattering impressions and clicks into the warm, moist, fertile brains of our consumers and hoping to harvest transactions.
It is different in that we have no winter. We are always planting.
This is okay if our spend is constant.
If you’re calculating March’s ROI, you know March is taking credit for transactions which were inspired in February, January or before, but you also know you’re starting some goodness in March which won’t pay off until later.
However:
if you spent less in March than in previous months, your ROI will look artificially positive. This is what farmers call “eating your seed corn.”;
likewise, if you spent more in March than in previous months, your ROI will look artificially negative.
Variable contribution is a two-step process. You have to:
determine the profit of each transaction, which is an accounting exercise, and then;
which channels deserve the credit for that profit.
Variable contribution margin is Revenue minus non-marketing expenses:
On the Revenue side, you want to include all the goodness a booking drives.
On the Expense side, include all non-marketing variable costs associated with completing a transaction.
Part 2 of the VCM exercise requires someone to gauge which marketing treatments caused each purchase, which is an exercise in customer psychiatry.
This can be done, but….
I want to start out by discussing our mission as marketers.
Then dive into the components of ROI
Which leads us into
VCM is difficult and expensive to calcuate, and doing it correctly requires a mathematical credit-sharing method called “algorithmic attribution.”
Depending on several factors, it may not be worth your while to do this.
I’ve tried to map out your decision tree:
Question #1 is: do you really need to know your true attribution?
Are you spending at least $10M/year on marketing?
Are you distributing it across multiple channels?
Do you believe this stuff is knowable, and is your organization flexible enough to actually shift spend around?
The next question is: Can you access your data in a form that lends itself to modeling?
If you say “No” to any of these, then use the attribution available from your site metric product.
VS, SiteCat and GA all have them.
If it’s been “yesses” up til now, your next question is whether you have the data guy in-house to do the modeling, and whether he or she has bandwidth.
if either of these are “no”s, then you should think about hiring an attribution model vendor.
….whoever does the modeling will need to pull all available impression, click, booking and profit data into a heavy analytical workspace like R or SAS…
…he or she but usually he will then have to connect the data together to create a rectangular table of causes and effects suitable for regression modeling.
This all has to be brought together in a way that connects customer behavior to what they saw, so you can try to tie cause to effect.
The hardest part of this is deduplicating customer profiles. Several data-handling companies specialize in this activity. Blue Kai, AgileOne and Compete all claim to do this well.
SocialCode ran an ad campaign for a consumer packaged good company looking to get people to redeem an offer. Thanks to View Tags, it found that of the total 5,924 people who redeemed the offer, 5,127 had only viewed the advertisement, compared to 797 users who clicked through to the offer directly from the ad.
http://techcrunch.com/2012/11/20/facebook-view-tags-ads/
When I was at Travelocity we used Forrester’s 2012 Wave survey of attribution providers as our starting point to find a suitable attribution vendor.
The market has changed a lot since then:
Visual IQ is still the market leader, but by a narrower margin;
Google, which used to be dead last, acquired Adometry and the combination is has improved;
Convertro was purchased by AOL and is almost at parity with Visual IQ.
C3 Metrics gave me an attribution vendor evaluation matrix which one of their retailer clients put together, which they have authorized me to share. They ask: is the vendor:
A seller of media;
Able to pixel to collect data directly;
Able to cross and deduplicate visitors across devices;
Able to bias in favor of bottom-funnel, conversion-linked channels;
Able to control brand search and affiliate conversion management tools robotically;
Able to audit display ad viewability;
Able to onboard new clients quickly, and;
Affordable?
Karen Laine of Adometry assures me that Adometry is firewalled from the rest of Google and that their clients’ data will never get into Google’s hands, and I like and trst Karen, but there’s something about giving the fox access to the chicken coop which still seems risky. This concern applies also to eBay and AOL/Convertro.
There is something to be said for a vendor being able to pull in historical impression, click, transaction and profit data from your enterprise data warehouse, but there is also something to be said for a vendor having the ability to pixel your site and then gather all the data they need directly, even if you had no data warehouse and/or it’s a mess. AOL/Convertro, C3, eBay/Clearsaleing, Adometry/Google and Rakuten all have this ability.
If you can’t pull together the channel actions of one visitor across multiple devices, your picture will be incomplete. All vendors can have profile deduplication done by a third party like Blue Kai before feeding data into their models, but the ones who have the deduplication built in can be quicker and less costly.
C3 believes that search activity at the bottom of the funnel is disproportionately responsible for conversion, and should be credited accordingly. My own preference is to leave all of the data in and let the model discover which clicks and impressions are correlated with good booking behavior.
It can be advantageous if your attribution vendor can interact directly with tools like Marin and advise them in near-real time if they’ve been responsible for a sale. Your whole system can then opportunistically and precisely react to spikes or dips in customer demand.
Since >50% of displayed ads are never seen, it can be useful to audit which ones actually appeared before the eyes of humans and had a chance to impact conversion, though presumably the unseen ad “impressions” which aren’t filtered out just weight down their channel.
All things being equal, it’s better to get up and running faster vs. slower. If this speed comes at the cost of being able to use historical data, and if you sell a product which has a very long consideration/purchase cycle (e.g. cruises), then it may be worth a delay to be able to pull several years of data into the model.
I can’t vouch for any of these prices (not would I be able to if I could because I’m under NDA with many of these companies) and they may be biased to make C3 look cheaper, but I doubt it. Visual IQ is in the high right corner for a reason and describes themselves as the Cadillac of this industry, so they probably are a little the most expensive. The cater to people who need to make extremely accurate spend decisions with gargantuan marketing budgets.
C3 Metrics was always going to be the winner of the methodology they provided, but I think it’s a fair comparison so far as it goes. What it doesn’t include, and what I think trumps all other considerations, is: what type of lift does it cause? You’re renting the product to improve your marketing ROI, so all of these other criteria are just proxies for that positive impact. Visual IQ, Adometry and Convertro have all advised me that their new customers typically enjoy a 20%+ improvement in ROI upon initial release, followed by smaller improvements in subsequent months.
Regardless of whether you do your own model or hire it done, you take the total contribution each channel has driven, subtract spend and divide the total by spend, and then look at the ROI. If positive, spend up. If negative, spend down and/or change tactics.
Our finished product will look something like this.
Despite all of the complexity in the background, the finished output can be presented to the most distracted executive as a grid full of Harvey balls.
Ask and answer “why should we care,” then;
Cover the tactical steps of setting up your retargeting program and adding cross-device-ness to the mix, then;
Discuss how to measure the ROI of all of your marketing efforts, which may involve selecting an algorithmic attribution vendor.
Regardless of whether you do your own model or hire it done, you take the total contribution each channel has driven, subtract spend and divide the total by spend, and then look at the ROI. If positive, spend up. If negative, spend down and/or change tactics.
There are four major methods for cross-device tracking:
If you have a big enough web presence that people are willing to log into your site however they visit, you don’t actually have a cross-device tracking problem.
If not, there are companies that apply predictive models to served ad data to make predictions about who is using what device.
3) The same types of models can be applied to IP addresses and to infer the same user, and;
4) Apps that can hear TV sounds, QR codes and campaign-specific hyperlinks also enable cross-channel tracking.
Visual IQ is the self-described Cadillac of the attribution marketplace. Their method combines:
A top-down econometric model including all of the transaction influencers that are not directly trackable, including television, seasonality, PPI, and;
A bottom-up model which incorporates individually trackable impressions and clicks.
And they periodically synchronize the outputs of these models and adjust their recommendations.
Another method, used by the vendor we chose for a pilot test, uses a technique lifted from the medical world called survival modeling. How likely is a given customer to book given everything else that’s happened?
The time proximity of bookings to channel clicks is noted, as well as other things like seasonality and repeat purchase history.
DTI, SEM and SEO are treated as behaviors instead of channels.
Typing your brand name is highly correlated to booking.
Is TV advertisement highly correlated to typing your brand name? Maybe not.
Model is accountable to a recorded outcome: response
In this chart:
The axes are the time since the last exposure to each of the two channels under consideration.
The dots represent converters vs. NonConverters
The orange line represents the relationship between 2 variables (say time since last email and time since last affiliate visit)
Everyone above the line is considered a responder. We count the folks above the line and see what our accuracy it
This curved version of the graph shows a more complex model and relationship between the 2 variables. It has a higher accuracy
Once we’re satisfied with a model(s), we’d take a given order, see the time since last email and affiliate and based on the timing, and where we are on the orange line, we have a means to allocate which was more causal.
For those of you with stats people who would like to try survival modeling, our PhD stats guy recommended this book, which he says is written such that SAS usage/knowledge is not needed.
On of the data-driven attribution methods of which I’m aware is being beta tested by clients of Google.
Look at all the clickstreams, not just those ending up with a booking;
Compare conversion when a click is present in a certain sequence, then when it’s absent. A click could pull conversion backwards.
This method attributes channel credit and picks up on the importance of sequence and timing.