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Diamond Dollars Case Competition Presentation 11-10-15
The document outlines a methodology for evaluating and ranking upcoming free agent pitchers in Major League Baseball. It describes factors used in a value model such as projected WAR, age, injury history, and consistency. Player profiles are provided for the top 14 free agents that include these statistics and a bulleted analysis of strengths and weaknesses. Initial contract projections are given followed by adjustments made after accounting for qualifying offers and market depth.
Diamond Dollars Case Competition Presentation 11-10-15
- 1. The 2015 FreeAgent Pitching Market Diamond Dollars Case Competition Columbia 2015 Syracuse University Willie Kniesner | Brandon Lane | Olivia Lavelle Jeremy Losak | Evan Weiss
- 2. Table of Contents 1.Methodology 2. Player Pages 3. Final Rankings 4. Contracts andYears Pre Qualifying Offer 5. AfterThe Qualifying Offer 6. After Accounting For Market Depth
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- 4. Definitions • fWAR usedin all references ofWAR. Steamer used for allWAR projections of 2015 FA. • Aging Curve: -0.4WAR per year • FA Score: ARaWeightedW wWAR Age aAge )(
- 5. Value Model y =ValueVariable x1= Projected WAR Per Season x2 = Age x3 = QualifyingOffer x4 = Past Injuries x5 = PitchesThrown InThe Majors x6 = PitchesThrown/Season x7 = ConsistencyVariable (season to season) ValueVariable: • 1-10 rating where the higher the rating, the better you are compared to the other individuals on this list. • Model uses free agents who made over $10M AAV dating back to 2010. • $10M cutoff to analyze a subset of top quality free agents.
- 6. Value Model y =ValueVariable x1= ProjectedWAR Per Season x2 = Age x3 = QualifyingOffer x4 = Past Injuries x5 = PitchesThrown InThe Majors x6 = PitchesThrown/Season x7 = ConsistencyVariable (season to season) ProjectedWAR Per Season • WAR per season throughout the contract. • For 2015 FA, Steamer WAR used. 0.4WAR is subtracted per projected year of the contract. • For previous year FA where projected Steamer WAR is not available, projectedWAR is calculated as part of a projection model using the two previous seasonWARs.
- 7. Value Model y =ValueVariable x1= Projected WAR Per Season x2 = Age x3 = QualifyingOffer x4 = Past Injuries x5 = PitchesThrown InThe Majors x6 = PitchesThrown/Season x7 = ConsistencyVariable (season to season) Age: • Age entering the season you signed the contract.
- 8. Value Model y =ValueVariable x1= Projected WAR Per Season x2 = Age x3 = Qualifying Offer x4 = Past Injuries x5 = PitchesThrown InThe Majors x6 = PitchesThrown/Season x7 = ConsistencyVariable (season to season) QualifyingOffer: • Yes/No variable. • For players under theType A/B FA, Yes/No dummy variable if the player was designated aType A FA. • For 2015 FA: • Average free agent score calculated for all free agents 2010- 2014 receiving a qualifying offer. • A free agent that has a FA Score greater than one standard deviation below the mean is projected to receive a qualifying offer for this analysis.
- 9. Value Model y =ValueVariable x1= Projected WAR Per Season x2 = Age x3 = QualifyingOffer x4 = Past Injuries x5 = PitchesThrown InThe Majors x6 = PitchesThrown/Season x7 = ConsistencyVariable (season to season) Past Injuries: • Yes/No variable used to determine if a player has a history of chronic injuries. • Player has the same injury two times in a three year span prior to free agency.
- 10. Value Model y =ValueVariable x1= Projected WAR Per Season x2 = Age x3 = QualifyingOffer x4 = Past Injuries x5 = PitchesThrown InThe Majors x6 = PitchesThrown/Season x7 = ConsistencyVariable (season to season) PitchesThrown: • Used to measure mileage on arm leading up to free agency. • Pitches thrown measures total mileage while pitches thrown per season measures how much of a workhorse that player is. • Total pitches only available since 2002. • Pitches thrown per season only includes player seasons with at least 15 starts.
- 11. Value Model y =ValueVariable x1= Projected WAR Per Season x2 = Age x3 = QualifyingOffer x4 = Past Injuries x5 = PitchesThrown InThe Majors x6 = PitchesThrown/Season x7 = ConsistencyVariable (season to season) Consistency: • WARVariance between seasons. • How consistent is a player? Do you know what you’re going to get?
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- 13. Value Score 8.82 ProjectedWAR3.7 (1) Age 30 QualifyingOffer No Injury Risk No PitchesThrown In Majors 22,725 (10) PitchesThrown/Season 2,840 (2) Consistency 2.79 (13) The Good: • Consistent workhorse • MultipleTop Pitches • High K’s low BB’s The Bad?: • Mileage? • The PriceTag
- 14. Value Score 8.44 ProjectedWAR1.9 (7) Age 30 QualifyingOffer No Injury Risk Yes PitchesThrown In Majors 22,785 (11) PitchesThrown/Season 2,848 (1) Consistency 1.82 (8) The Good: • Consistently top pitcher • Top production for relatively lower contract The Bad?: • Delivery raises health questions • Kansas City Struggles?
- 15. Value Score 8.31 ProjectedWAR3.0 (2) Age 32 QualifyingOffer Yes Injury Risk No PitchesThrown In Majors 33,193 (14) PitchesThrown/Season 2,766 (5) Consistency 2.66 (12) The Good: • Command makes up for average velocity • Has elite movement on his pitches • Limits baserunners and contact • He can hit The Bad?: • Wrong side of 30 long-term contract • Will continuing decrease in velocity be an issue down the line?
- 16. Value Score 7.13 ProjectedWAR1.8 (8) Age 29 QualifyingOffer Yes Injury Risk No PitchesThrown In Majors 16,794 (7) PitchesThrown/Season 2,399 (8) Consistency 1.22 (7) The Good: • No lingering effects from 2009Tommy John surgery • Low BB% • Fastball sets up breaking pitches The Bad: • Fastball was not particularly effective last season
- 17. Value Score 6.95 ProjectedWAR2.1 (4) Age 29 QualifyingOffer Yes Injury Risk Yes PitchesThrown In Majors 10,930 (2) PitchesThrown/Season 1,561 (13) Consistency 7.52 (14) Name Team ERA FIP GB% K% BB% HR/FB Jaime Garcia Cardinals 2.43 3.00 61.20% 19.00% 5.90% 7.10% Dallas Keuchel Astros 2.48 2.91 61.70% 23.70% 5.60% 13.60% The Good: • Low risk/high reward • Lives and dies (but mostly lives) on the ground ball • Slider as a potential out pitch The Bad: • Injury history • Waiting for a complete season
- 18. Value Score 6.86 ProjectedWAR1.7 (9) Age 30 QualifyingOffer Yes Injury Risk No PitchesThrown In Majors 11,316 (3) PitchesThrown/Season 2829 (3) Consistency 0.11 (1) The Good: • CONSISTENT The Bad: • CONSISTENT
- 19. Value Score 6.86 ProjectedWAR2.9 (3) Age 34 QualifyingOffer Yes Injury Risk No PitchesThrown In Majors 9428 (1) PitchesThrown/Season 2357 (9) Consistency 1.85 (9) The Good: • Consistently above average pitcher • Finesse stuff • Lowest BB% on this list The Bad: • Age (but with low MLB mileage) • High contact percentage against
- 20. Value Score 5.98 ProjectedWAR1.6 (11) Age 31 QualifyingOffer Yes Injury Risk No PitchesThrown In Majors 15,907 (5) PitchesThrown/Season 1,988 (11) Consistency 0.49 (4) The Good: • Workhorse • Four pitches, each with above average movement and velocity • Clear value The Bad: • Significant decrease in K% • Allows plenty of HRs
- 21. Value Score 5.87 ProjectedWAR1.4 (12) Age 28 QualifyingOffer No Injury Risk No PitchesThrown In Majors 16,277 (6) PitchesThrown/Season 2,713 (6) Consistency 0.27 (3) The Good: • Age • Low mileage on arm • Consistent The Bad: • Too much contact • Low strikeouts • LowVelocity
- 22. Value Score 5.71 ProjectedWAR0.9 (13) Age 30 QualifyingOffer Yes Injury Risk No PitchesThrown In Majors 24,992 (12) PitchesThrown/Season 2,777 (4) Consistency 0.72 (5) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Yovani Gallardo Decreasing K% The Good: • All of his pitches have above average movement The Bad: • K% decreasing • Allowing plenty of baserunners
- 23. The Good: • Allof his pitches have above average movement The Bad: • K% decreasing • Allowing plenty of baserunners Value Score 5.71 ProjectedWAR 0.9 (13) Age 30 QualifyingOffer Yes Injury Risk No PitchesThrown In Majors 24,992 (12) PitchesThrown/Season 2,777 (4) Consistency 0.72 (5)
- 24. Bottom Four: ScottKazmir, Ian Kennedy, J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada Scott Kazmir Ian Kennedy J.A. Happ Marco Estrada Value Score 5.46 5.38 4.16 3.48 ProjectedWAR 2.1 (6) 2.1 (5) 1.6 (10) 0.2 (14) Age 32 31 33 32 QualifyingOffer No Yes No No Injury Risk No No No No PitchesThrown In Majors 26,835 (13) 20,469 (9) 17,643 (8) 11,866 (4) PitchesThrown/Season 2,440 (7) 2,274 (10) 1,960 (12) 1,483 (14) Consistency 0.16 (2) 2.60 (11) 0.83 (6) 1.94 (10)
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- 26. Final Player Rankings 1.David Price (8.82) 2. Johnny Cueto (8.44) 3. Zack Greinke (8.31) 4. Jordan Zimmermann (7.13) 5. Jaime Garcia (6.95) 6. Wei-Yin Chen (6.861) 7. Hisashi Iwakuma (6.857) 8. Jeff Samardzija (5.98) 9. Mike Leake (5.87) 10.Yovani Gallardo (5.72) 11.Scott Kazmir (5.46) 12.Ian Kennedy (5.38) 13.J.A. Happ (4.16) 14.Marco Estrada (3.48)
- 27. Initial Contract Projections RankName Years Total Dollars AAV 8 Jeff Samardzija 4 $78.0 M $19.5 M 9 Mike Leake 3 $42.0 M $14.0 M 10 Yovani Gallardo 3 $45.0 M $15.0 M 11 Scott Kazmir 3 $49.5 M $16.5 M 12 Ian Kennedy 2 $22.0 M $11.0 M 13 J.A. Happ 3 $39.0 M $13.0 M 14 Marco Estrada 2 $15.0 M $7.5 M Rank Name Years Total Dollars AAV 1 David Price 7 $227.5 M $32.5 M 2 Johnny Cueto 5 $115.0 M $23.0 M 3 Zack Greinke 6 $165.0 M $27.5 M 4 Jordan Zimmermann 5 $122.5 M $24.5 M 5 Jaime Garcia 2 $23.0 M $11.5 M 6 Wei-Yin Chen 4 $66.0 M $16.5 M 7 Hisashi Iwakuma 3 $43.5 M $14.5 M
- 28. Contract Projections AfterQualifying Offer Rank Name Years Total Dollars AAV 8 Jeff Samardzija 4 $76.0 M $19.0 M 9 Mike Leake 3 $42.0 M $14.0 M 10 Yovani Gallardo 3 $42.0 M $14.0 M 11 Scott Kazmir 3 $49.5 M $16.5 M 12 Ian Kennedy 2 $20.0 M $10.0 M 13 J.A. Happ 3 $39.0 M $13.0 M 14 Marco Estrada 2 $15.0 M $7.5 M Rank Name Years Total Dollars AAV 1 David Price 7 $227.5 M $32.5 M 2 Johnny Cueto 5 $115.0 M $23.0 M 3 Zack Greinke 6 $162.0 M $27.0 M 4 Jordan Zimmermann 5 $120.0 M $24.0 M 5 Jaime Garcia 2 $20.0 M $10.0 M 6 Wei-Yin Chen 4 $63.5 M $16.0 M 7 Hisashi Iwakuma 3 $42.0 M $14.0 M
- 29. Contract Projections AfterMarket Depth Rank Name Years Total Dollars AAV 8 Jeff Samardzija 4 $68.0 M $17.0 M 9 Mike Leake 3 $39.75 M $13.25 M 10 Yovani Gallardo 3 $39.75 M $13.25 M 11 Scott Kazmir 3 $45.75 M $15.25 M 12 Ian Kennedy 2 $19.0 M $9.5 M 13 J.A. Happ 3 $38.25 M $12.75 M 14 Marco Estrada 2 $15.0 M $7.5 M Rank Name Years Total Dollars AAV 1 David Price 7 $196.0 M $28.0 M 2 Johnny Cueto 5 $105.0 M $21.0 M 3 Zack Greinke 6 $141.0 M $23.5 M 4 Jordan Zimmermann 5 $106.25 M $21.25 M 5 Jaime Garcia 2 $20.0 M $10.0 M 6 Wei-Yin Chen 4 $61.0 M $15.25 M 7 Hisashi Iwakuma 3 $39.75 M $13.25 M 8586.0)( WARpaWeighted awWAR aAge paAge
- 30. Change In ContractAAV After Adjustments • David Price $32.5 M $28.0 M • Johnny Cueto $23.0 M $21.0 M • Zack Greinke $27.5 M $23.5 M • Jordan Zimmermann $24.5 M $21.25 M • Jaime Garcia $11.5 M $10.0 M • Wei-Yin Chen $16.5 M $15.25 M • Hisashi Iwakuma $14.5 M $13.25 M • Jeff Samardzija $19.5 M $17.0 M • Mike Leake $14.0 M $13.25 M • Yovani Gallardo $15.0 M $13.25 M • Scott Kazmir $16.5 M $15.25 M • Ian Kennedy $11.0 M $9.5 M • J.A. Happ $13.0 M $12.75 M • Marco Estrada $7.5 M $7.5 M
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Editor's Notes
- #14 Top 10 FIP each of the last four years Top 4 in WAR 3 of the last 4 amongst pitchers Vertical movement on his sinker has increased each of the past three years, and the batting average against that pitch has gone down. Changeup has a 50.9% O-Swing% Consistently good FB. Low walks Top 15 in K% 3 of the last 4 years
- #15 Thrown over 200 innings in 4 of the past 5 seasons Injury plagued season in 2013, but otherwise he’s been phenomenal Sinker has a lot of movement and he throws it a lot with two strikes What is he better than Greinke at? 2 years younger than Greinke with one less year projected on his contract.
- #16 Greinke succeeds thanks to his command of the strikezone and movement of his breaking pitches despite average velocity. He keeps BB’s and contact down. Greinke top 10 CY Young last 3 years 32 and likely to get a deal that keeps him into his late 30s for top dollar. Greinke allows batters to make below average contact (-5.2contact% points) Greinke has been worth 2.8 fWAR as a batter over the last three seasons.
- #17 No lingering effects of Tommy John Top 15 in BB% the past 5 years Batters hit .198 against his curveball Throws his fastball A LOT (.301 BAA). Allows him to set up breaking pitches. Threw slider 22% of the time in 2015. BAA against slider is low (.227 last year) According to Fangraphs, his wSL has been above 10 three of the past five years. Not a strikeout guy. Relies on slider movement.
- #18 Underperforms his ERA consistently. When healthy, he has produced healthy FIP. Very high ground ball percentage (in 2015 if he had qualified he would have been 4th). Ground balls on all of his pitches Increasing GB% on his Fastball each of the last 5 seasons. Best pitches slider and fastball BAA against slider this year was .198 (never over .220 in his career)
- #19 Most consistent player imaginable Fastball velocity 92 (average). Below average velocity on all of his pitches. Using slider more accompanied by increase in velocity. More whiffs Pitch to contact (fly ball pitcher) High floor, low ceiling, no injuries, consistent
- #20 Splitter (25% usage) for groundballs High Z Contact Lowest BB% Oldest player in our sample but he only has 4 years of MLB experience. Pitcher relies on his breaking Prorating his stats to 200 innings this year, he has produced at least a 3 WAR in each of the last three seasons. Finesse pitcher with great control of the strike zone which will only bode well aging.
- #21 Over 200 innings last three years Above average movement and velocity on all of his pitches Traded for Addison Russell and again for Marcus Semien Middle in K%, BB% compared to list of 14 players over the past three seasons Uses 4 pitches at least 19% of the time (four seamer, sinker, cutter, slider) Has dropped usage of his four seamer (each year since 2011) in exchange for mixing up his other pitches which has helped him be more effective. Significant decrease in K% (2014: 23%; 2015: 17.9%) Increase in FB% led to him having the 11th worst HR/9.
- #22 Cutter and change produce ground balls (51% GB% in 2015) Pitches to contact (91% Z-Contact%) over 90% for this career which is way above average. Lowest K% of this sample Using sinker (91 mph) and cutter (90 mph) the most Youth = 28 mph Came right from College to the Majors FF velocity increasing but decreasing in usage. (Lowest in majors in fastball usage) Consistent (you know what you’ll get). Youth. Low Milage
- #23 29.6% usage for his slider (31.98% for fastball) All of his pitches have above average movement. BAA against slider = .291 AVG Fastball .290 BAA AVG Sinker third pitch (.231 BAA Against) (increasing usage) Bad with walks K% continues to decrease and it’s below average
- #24 29.6% usage for his slider (31.98% for fastball) All of his pitches have above average movement. BAA against slider = .291 AVG Fastball .290 BAA AVG Sinker third pitch (.231 BAA Against) (increasing usage) Bad with walks K% continues to decrease and it’s below average
- #25 Kazmir: Decrease in K% (below average) Kazmir: 5.19 FIP in Houston Kennedy: 8th worst FIP in baseball (4.51) in 2015 Kennedy: Worst HR/9 this season despite pitching in Petco Happ: FIP over 4.00 in 6 out of 7 season (min. 15 GS) Happ: Career BB% of 9.2% (19.5% higher than league average) Estrada: Career FIP 4.19 Estrada: Gives up a lot of HR EVERYONE INCONSISTENT