This document provides an analysis of potential relief pitchers to improve the San Francisco Giants bullpen for the upcoming season. It begins with an introduction of the analytics team conducting the analysis. Various relief pitchers are then analyzed and grouped based on their stats into tiers. The top tier, Group A, features the elite relievers in baseball. Group B features very strong secondary options. Group C narrows the field further. Based on the analysis, the proposed bullpen features Dellin Betances, Zach Britton, Brett Cecil, Carson Smith, Darren O'Day, and Jeurys Familia. Projections show this bullpen could improve the Giants WAR by over 8 wins, vastly improving their relief corps from 10

1. Call to the Pen
Waking a Sleeping Giant
Northern Sports Analytics Group

2. Our Roster
Aaron Caputo
Scouting &
Player Analytics
2
From Starting pitcher to closer
Alex D’Alfonso
Player
Evaluations &
Deep Analytics
Zintis Vandelis
Econometrician &
Presentation
Developer
Ryan Minicola
Scouting & Team
Analytics
Matthew Cohen
General
Strategist & Park
Evaluator

3. Agenda
1. RP Overview
2. Team Decision Criteria
3. Mission Statement
4. Quantitative Analysis
5. Qualitative Analysis
6. Our Bullpen
7. Performance Forecast
8. Risks & Contingencies
9. Summary
3
Innings one through nine

4. Defining A reliever’s Role
How the understanding of Relief Pitching is changing
4
1980, 2.7 innings 2015
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
2.7 bullpen-innings per game 1980 | 3.1 bullpen-innings per game 2015
1.7 innings per outing, 1980 | 1.0 innings per outing 2015
Relief pitchers in closing roles have undervalued WAR

5. Maximizing Value - The teams
5
Evaluating Options in the National League
 Projected under .500
 HighRP WAR/WAR
 Defensive Inefficiency
 Diminishingreturns
East
Central
West

6. SF Giants
 Toughest park to hit HRs
6
Ballpark Factors
-45%
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
RUNS RHB BA LHB HR RHB HR
AT&T Park Effect

7. SF Giants
 6th Ranked projected NL rotation
 10th Ranked projected NL bullpen
 1st Ranked defense in baseball
 The Buster Posey Effect
7
Who are the Giants?
Bruce Bochy
3X World Series winning manager

8. The current Bullpen
8
The San Francisco Giants’ Weak link
 10th ranked projected NL Bullpen
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
Dodgers
Average
Giants
Projected RP WAR

9. The Mission
 Drawing from the 2015 KC Royals blueprint
Run limitation & loss Prevention
9
Our mission is to build a bullpen that limits runs and prevents losses by
inducing strike-outs & soft contact, stranding runners,
and minimizing baserunners & extra-base hits.

10. Quantitative analysis
10
Our main criteria
K% LOB% Soft
Contact % Opp. OPS TB/IP
RE24, SIERA, SIERA* Battery
Score
Our mission is to build a bullpen that limits runs and prevents losses by
inducing strike-outs & soft contact, stranding runners,
and minimizing baserunners & extra-base hits.
Our mission is to build a bullpen that limits runs and prevents losses by
inducing strike-outs & soft contact, stranding runners,
and minimizing baserunners & extra-base hits.
Our mission is to build a bullpen that limits runs and prevents losses by
inducing strike-outs & soft contact, stranding runners,
and minimizing baserunners & extra-base hits.
Our mission is to build a bullpen that limits runs and prevents losses by
inducing strike-outs & soft contact, stranding runners,
and minimizing baserunners & extra-base hits.
Our mission is to build a bullpen that limits runs and prevents losses by
inducing strike-outs & soft contact, stranding runners,
and minimizing baserunners & extra-base hits.

11. Qualitative Factors
11
Considering the non-statistical and the intangibles
QUALITATIVE FactorS
 Variance in pitch type
 Variance in pitch velocity
 Dominance of lefty/righty
 Migration of AL relievers to NL
Extreme
Velocity
Fastball
Curveball
Slider
Righty
Specialist
Lefty Specialist
Closer
Intimidation
Extra Innings

12. The new bullpen
Overhauling the SF Giants
12
DarrenO’DayCarson SmithDellin Betances Zach Britton BrettCecil

13. GROUP A
13
The Best of the Best
DellinBetances Craig Kimbrel Kenley Jansen Andrew Miller
GROUP 1 Opponents' OPS
LOB Rate (303 RP w/ 50 IP 2013-
2015) TB/IP K% Soft Contact % RE-24
AVG of SIERA, ERA, FIP,
xFIP
Average of 131 RP w/ 50 IP 75.3% 1.459 23.87% 20.07% 5.466 3.36
Dellin Betances 0.510 85.7% 0.833 39.5% 29.10% 26.35 2.18
Betances League Rank 8th (+12.4%) -0.626 4th (+15.63%) 3rd (+9.03%) 2nd (+20.884) 5th (-1.18)
Craig Kimbrel 0.569 84.8% 1.112 36.40% 17.80% 8.52 2.48
Kimbrel League Rank 12th (+9.5%) -0.347 5th (+12.53%) 101st (-2.27%) 46th (+3.054) 13th (-0.88)
Kenley Jansen 0.513 83.9% 1.070 40.00% 25.50% 7.26 2.07
Jansen League Rank 16th (+8.6%) -0.389 3th (+16.13%) 11th (+5.43%) 55th (+1.794) 4th (-1.29)
Andrew Miller 0.475 80.5% 0.843 40.70% 22.30% 17.14 1.96
Miller League Rank 45th (+5.2%) -0.616 2nd (+16.8%) 30th (+2.23%) 9th (+11.67%) 2nd (-1.4)
Battery Score*
1.917
Battery Score*
1.8864

14. Opponent OPS
LOB Rate (2013-
2015)
TB/IP
K%
Soft Contact%
RE-24
Opponent OPS
LOB Rate (2013-
2015)
TB/IP
K%
Soft Contact%
RE-24
Opponent OPS
LOB Rate (2013-
2015)
TB/IP
K%
Soft Contact%
RE-24
Opponent OPS
LOB Rate (2013-
2015)
TB/IP
K%
Soft Contact%
RE-24
GroupA
14
Dellin Betances Craig Kimbrel
Kenley Jansen Andrew Miller

15. GROUP B
15
Second-rounders
Zach Britton Ken Giles Mark Melancon Tony Watson
GROUP 2 Opponents' OPS
LOB Rate (303 RP w/ 50 IP 2013-
2015) TB/IP K% Soft Contact % RE-24
AVG of SIERA, ERA, FIP,
xFIP
Average of 131 RP w/50 IP 75.3% 1.459 23.87% 20.07% 5.466 3.36
Zach Britton 0.547 82.30% 1.036 31.20% 34.0% 19.5 1.72
Britton League Rank 29th (+7.0%) -0.423 14th (+7.33%) 1st (+13.93%) 5th (+14.034) 1st (-1.64)
Ken Giles 0.569 77.90% 1.086 29.20% 20.0% 11.48 2.45
Giles League Rank 88th (+2.6%) -0.373 22nd (+5.3%) 66th (-0.07%) 30th (+6.014) 12th (-0.91)
Mark Melancon 0.541 78.60% 1.043 21.20% 27.0% 14.59 2.73
Melancon League Rank 77th (+3.3%) -0.416 84th (-2.67%) 7th (+6.93%) 14th (+9.124) 26th (-0.63)
Tony Watson 0.525 84.0% 0.942 21.20% 24.80% 17.94 2.91
Watson League Rank 14th (+8.7%) -0.517 84th (-2.67%) 13th (+4.73%) 7th (+12.474) 35th (-0.45)
SIERA*
50.88
SIERA*
155.76

16. OOPS
LOB Rate
TB/IP
K%
Soft Contact %
RE-24
GroupB
16
Zach Britton
OOPS
LOB Rate
TB/IP
K%
Soft Contact %
RE-24
KenGiles
OOPS
LOB Rate
TB/IP
K%
Soft Contact %
RE-24
Mark Melancon
OOPS
LOB Rate
TB/IP
K%
Soft Contact %
RE-24
Tony Watson

17. GroupC
17
Narrowing the pool
CodyAllen JeurysFamilia Luke Gregerson Kelvin Herrera DarrenO’Day David RoBertson
SergioRomo Trevor Rosenthal DrewStoren Carson Smith JoshFields Liam Hendricks

18. GroupC Finalists
18
Third Rounders / SPecialists
Group 3 Opponents' OPS LOB Rate (303RP w/50IP 2013-2015) TB/IP K% Soft Contact % RE-24 AVG of SIERA, ERA, FIP, xFIP
Average of 131 RP w/50 IP 75.30% 1.459 23.87% 20.07% 5.466 3.36
Jeurys Familia 0.569 82.30% 1.128205128 27.90% 23.90% 17.89 2.37
Jeurys Familia League Rank 30th (+7.0%) 1.128 32nd (+4.03%) 19th (+3.2%) 8th (+12.424) 10th (-0.99)
Darren O'Day 0.54 89.90% 1.029185868 31.90% 22.60% 17.99 2.34
Darren O'Day League Rank 2nd (+14.6%) 1.029 12th (+8.03%) 28th (+1.9%) 6th (+12.524) 9th (-1.02)
Carson Smith 0.539 79.80% 0.942857143 32.40% 24.50% 11.7 2.21
Carson Smith League Rank 55th (+4.5%) 0.943 10th (+8.53%) 14th (+3.8%) 29th (+6.234) 6th (-1.15)
Cody Allen 0.596 79.30% 1.128798842 34.60% 20.00% 9.76 2.5
Cody Allen League Rank 65th (+4.0%) 1.129 6th (+10.73%) 67th (-0.70%) 36th (+4.294) 15th (-0.86)
Cody Allen Jeurys Familia Carson Smith Darren O’Day

19. Opponent OPS
LOB Rate
TB/IP
K%
Soft Contact %
RE-24
GroupC Finalists
19
Darren O’Day
Opponent OPS
LOB Rate
TB/IP
K%
Soft Contact %
RE-24
Carson Smith
Opponent OPS
LOB Rate
TB/IP
K%
Soft Contact %
RE-24
Jeurys Familia
Opponent OPS
LOB Rate
TB/IP
K%
Soft Contact %
RE-24
Cody Allen

20. The 5th man…
 Complementary skill-set
 Dominant lefty
 2nd best curveball out of RPs
 All other pitches above average
 Level-headed, malleable
Send in the South-Paw
20
K% 32.7
wCB 9.1
WHIP 0.96
FIP- 57

21. Summingit up – The Bullpen
21
Evaluating absolute And Relative Strength
1
1.17
1.13
1.85
2.63
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Giants NET RP WAR
DarrenO’Day
RightySpecialist
& BridgeMan
Carson Smith
Long-Man & Middle
Reliever
Dellin Betances
High-Leverage
Zach Britton
Closer
BrettCecil
Lefty-Specialist
4.1
2.89
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
WAR
SFG BP WAR
Behind Dodgers
VSDodgers

22. RiskFactors
Risks
• Overuse
• Role Acceptance
• Transition to NL
Contingencies
• Reliable Pitchers
• Diversity of Experience
• Advantage to Pitchers
No Stone left unturned…
22

23. SUmmary
23
Linking The mission to the Results
Identified Characteristics of a Strong
Bullpen
Selected Contending Team with a
Bullpen Deficiency
Selected Players who Fit Blueprint &
Fulfill Mission
Built a World Series Contender

24. Appendix
24
SIERA* Calculations
Player Input
Name PA SO BB GB FB %IP Start Year SIERA* SIERA*-
Britton 253 79 14 125 15 0% 2015 1.040086763 50.8769368
Jansen 200 80 8 38 56 0% 2015 1.155717056 56.5331141
Miller 246 100 20 58 44 0% 2015 1.460734904 71.4533826
Smith 284 92 22 103 31 0% 2015
1.86139938
1 91.0523064
Kimbrel 239 87 22 59 49 0% 2015 1.979255419 96.8173584
Betances 332 131 40 74 55 0% 2015 2.041777 99.8756672
O'Day 257 82 14 54 77 0% 2015 2.111593351 103.290807
Allen 286 99 25 52 75 0% 2015 2.148191213 105.08103
Familia 308 86 19 116 48 0% 2015 2.19581003 107.410355
Giles 298 87 25 82 65 0% 2015 2.611795203 127.758706
Melancon 293 62 14 122 55 0% 2015 2.741208548 134.089096
Watson 293 62 17 98 70 0% 2015 3.184256241 155.76124

25. APpendix
25
WAR Projections
Fangraphs Projections
IP FIP ERA WAR WAR/IP IP proportion IP if in SFG Total WAR if Transplanted into SFG Bullpen
Betances 65 2.49 2.32 2 0.030769231 0.194850383 85.53931803 2.631979016
Britton 65 2.8 2.65 1.8 0.027692308 0.152323514 66.87002243 1.851785237
O'Day 65 3.4 3.06 1.1 0.016923077 0.151550298 66.53058066 1.125902134
Smith 55 3.05 3.07 0.9 0.016363636 0.162375319 71.28276502 1.166445246
Cecil 55 2.98 2.93 1 0.018181818 0.125492925 55.09139411 1.001661711
League
Average/Replacement 46 3.8 3.7 0.35 0.007608696 0.106703781 46.84295987 0.356413825
League
Average/Replacement 46 3.8 3.7 0.35 0.007608696 0.106703781 46.84295987 0.356413825
8.490600994
2015 Results Projected IP
Betances 84 2.48 1.5 2.4 0.028571429 0.194850383 85.53931803 2.443980515
Britton 65.66666667 2.01 1.92 2.1 0.031979695 0.152323514 66.87002243 2.138482951
O'Day 65.3333333 2.49 1.52 1.8 0.02755102 0.151550298 66.53058066 1.832985386
Smith 70 2.12 2.31 2.1 0.03 0.162375319 71.28276502 2.138482951
Cecil 54.1 2.34 2.48 1.4 0.025878004 0.125492925 55.09139411 1.4256553
League
Average/Replacement 46 3.44 3.18 0.35 0.007608696 0.106703781 46.84295987 0.356413825
League
Average/Replacement 46 3.44 3.18 0.35 0.007608696 0.106703781 46.84295987 0.356413825
Total 431.1 10.69241475
SF Bullpen IP FIP ERA WAR
2016 Projections 439 3.39 3.13 2.8

26. Appendix
26
Spray Charts 1

27. Appendix
27
Spray Charts 2

28. Appendix
28
Table of player abilities
Elite Velocity Fastball Slider Curveball Lefty Specialist Righty Specialist Intimidating Multiple Innings Closing experience
Betances X X X X X X
Britton X X X X
O'Day X X X
Smith X X X
Cecil X X
Allen X X X X
Miller X X X
Fields X X X
Jansen X X X
Kimbrel X X X X
Giles X X
Melancon
Watson X
Romo X X X
Hendriks X X X
Robertson X
Rosenthal X X X X
Familia X
Herrera X X X
Storen X X
Gregerson X X

29. Appendix
29
0.64
0.65
0.66
0.67
0.68
0.69
0.7
0.71
SFG NYM CHC MIA ARI LAD CIN STL LgAvg WSN SDP ATL MIL PIT COL PHI
2015 Defensive Efficiency

30. Appendix
30
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
RP WAR / WAR

31. Appendix
31
0
5
10
15
20
25
Projected NL Rotations WAR

32. Appendix
32
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Projected NL Bullpen WAR

33. Appendix
33
Park CHaracteristics
NATIONAL LEAGUE RUNS LHB BA RHB BA LHB HR RHB HR BB K
ARI Chase Field Ret Gr 6% 9% -6%
ATL Turner Field Out Gr -6% -14% -5% 10%
CHC
Wrigley
Field
Out Gr 5% 24%
CIN
Great
American
BPark
Out Gr 31% 17% 5% 11%
COL Coors Field Out Gr 40% 16% 20% 15% 21% -18%
LA
Dodger
Stadium
Out Gr -10% -6% 15% -17%
MIA Marlins Park Ret Gr -36% -22% -5%
MIL Miller Park Ret Gr 7% 7% 33% 23%
NYM Citi Field1
Out Gr -13% -10% 24% -18
PHI
Citizens
Bank Park
Out Gr -5% 10% 40% 7%
PIT PNC Park Out Gr -6% -8% -27% -5% -8%
SD
PETCO
Park1 Out Gr -7% 10% 10% 8%
SF AT&T Park Out Gr -12% -7% -41% -24%
STL
Busch
Stadium
Out Gr -13% -10% 10%
WAS
Nationals
Park
Out Gr 7% -20% -12%