1. Diamond Dollars
NYU Case 2013
Syracuse University
Greg Ackerman, James DiDonato, Matt Filippi, Jeremy Losak, Zack Potter

2. Player Profile: Brian McCann
Age: 29
Bats/Throws: L/R
Height/Weight: 6-3/230
Position: C
Previous Contract:
$26.8M / 6 Years (2007-2012)
+ 1 Option Years

3. McCann’s Contract Projection
5 years/$85 million

4. Offensive Stats
Season
G
HR
ISO
OBP
wOBA
WAR
2010
143
21
.184
.375
.362
5.1
2011
128
24
.195
.351
.350
3.9
2012
121
20
.169
.300
.300
1.7
2013
102
20
.205
.336
.347
2.7
Steamer
113
21
.193
.334
.339
3.6
*Stats according to Fangraphs
TRENDS:
• Durable, since 2006 averaged 131 games per year
• Playing through torn labrum in 2012 resulted in big dip in stats
• Missed first 30 games in 2013 and rebounded nicely with comparable
power numbers and WAR to previous years

5. Defensive History
*Graphic via Fangraphs - 2012
*Graphic via Getting Blanked
- Through August of 2013 Season -

6. Intangible Qualities
• On September 11th, 2013 game against Miami Marlins, Jose
Fernandez appeared to show up Paul Maholm after hitting a
homerun. McCann was confronted Fernandez to defend his
teammates
• 2 weeks later against the
Milwaukee Brewers,
McCann physically
prevented Carlos Gomez
from touching home plate
after he presumably
disrespected Paul Maholm
during his homerun trot
Other Consideration:
• Strong possibility McCann will move to first base during latter
part of contract. AL team may give him time at DH to hinder
transition

7. WAR Projection
Data projected using McCann’s 2014 Steamer projected 3.6 WAR and
subtracting half a win (accounting for being a catcher)
Average Annual Value (AAV): $17M
•
•
•
•
•
2014: 3.6 WAR * $6 million= $21.6 million
2015: 3.1 WAR * $6 million= $18.6 million
2016: 2.6 WAR * $6 million= $15.6 million
2017: 2.1 WAR * $6 million= $12.6 million
2018: 1.6 WAR * $6 million= $9.6 million
*Projection holds 1 win be valued at $6 million on open market
- Similar value to what the Phillies paid Carlos Ruiz

8. Catcher Aging Curve
According to Dave Cameron of Fangraphs:
“A +3 WAR player heading into his age-35 season shouldn’t be
expected to be demonstrably worse in the next season than a +3
WAR player headed into his age-31 season. A more important
variable in a player’s expected future production is the player’s
estimated production for the upcoming season, not his age in
that season.”

9. Comparable Contracts
1.
2.
3.
4.
Miguel Montero - 5 years/$60 million (After age 28)*
Yadier Molina - 5 years/$75 million (After age 29)*
Victor Martinez - 4 years/$50 million (After age 31)^
Carlos Ruiz - 3 years/$26 million (After age 34)
* - Signed an extension while under contract
^ - Received qualifying offer tied to draft pick
compensation

10. Victor Martinez
• Signed 4 yr/$50 million contract with Detroit Tigers
following age 31 season in 2010
• Signed as catcher, played mostly as a DH due to poor
defensive performance
Stat
Martinez – 2010
McCann - 2013
OBP
.351
.336
ISO
.191
.205
wOBA
.364
.347
WAR
3.5
2.7
*Stats according to Fangraphs

11. Miguel Montero
• Signed extension during 2012 regular season for 5 yr/$60M
**Signed off the open market**
• Age 29 when he signed extension
• Montero has not demonstrated consistency
Stat
Montero – 2012
McCann - 2013
OBP
.391
.336
ISO
.152
.205
wOBA
.364
.347
WAR
4.6
2.7
*Stats according to Fangraphs

12. Yadier Molina
• Signed extension during 2012 season for 5 yr/$75M taking
effect for his age 30 season. **Signed off the open market**
Stat
Molina - 2012
McCann - 2013
OBP
.373
.336
ISO
.186
.205
wOBA
.375
.347
WAR
6.2
2.7
*Stats according to Fangraphs

13. Market Conditions
• Competition: Jarrod Saltalamacchia, A.J. Pierzynski, Kurt Suzuki
• Possible Suitors: Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, Blue Jays, Dodgers
What it means:
Several large market, high budget teams willing to spend money on
free agents to fill catching vacancy
Draft picks are mostly mid to late 1st round
Playoff contenders in “win now mode”
Conclusion: With limited options available at catcher and high
competition to sign McCann, his value will be inflated as
teams will be more willing to spend the money on McCann

14. Carlos Ruiz
•
•
•
•
Age: 35 – entering 2014 season
Signed 3 yr/$26M contract with Phillies last week
Suspended 25 games during 2013 season for using amphetamine
McCann ranked 6th in Catcher Defense Rating, Ruiz was ranked
14th -- *According to Matt Klaaseen (the defense chart)*
*Graph via Fangraphs

15. Contract Value at Six Years
Projected Contract: 6 yr/$92.6M
 Presumably worth less value and money for that projected year.
•
•
•
•
•
•
2014: 3.6 WAR * $6 million= $21.6 million
2015: 3.1 WAR * $6 million= $18.6 million
2016: 2.6 WAR * $6 million= $15.6 million
2017: 2.1 WAR * $6 million= $12.6 million
2018: 1.6 WAR * $6 million= $9.6 million
2019: 1.1 WAR * $6 million= $6.6 million
Smaller value would decrease total AAV for the contract.

16. Contract Value at Four Years
Projected Contract: 4 yr/ $70M
•
•
•
•
2014: 3.6 WAR * $6 million= $21.6 million
2015: 3.1 WAR * $6 million= $18.6 million
2016: 2.6 WAR * $6 million= $15.6 million
2017: 2.1 WAR * $6 million= $12.6 million
Lowest value is removed from the average, causing the
AAV to rise.

17. 2005-2008 MLB Drafts
Probability of Majors by 23
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
Probability of Majors by 23
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

18. WAR By Draft Pick

19. Average WAR by Selection
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
1990-2010: Selections 11-30
Average War of All Picks 11-30: 4.115
Picks 11-15: 6.125
Picks 16-20: 5.7
Picks 21-25: 3.4
Picks 26-30: 1.32
My guess of what MLB Front Offices value these picks at: 4-6
Wins Above Replacement.
• Flawed? Players who do not make the majors are valued at a WAR
of 0, when they should be valued below replacement level.

20. Draft Pick = Stock
• Pick given a monetary value to allocate throughout draft
rounds.
• Ability to Draft a player with potential
• Trade Asset after at least one calendar year
• Drew Pomeranz (1-5-2010) traded from Indians in a package for
Ubaldo Jimenez in 2011.

21. Competitive Balance
• Favors teams with Protected 1-10 selections and later first
round selections
• Teams with Protected 1-10 Selections can still choose in the
first round and sign a free agent with Qualifying Offer
• Prime Example: Michael Bourn – Indians had a protected
pick, Mets had 11th 1st Round selection. According to my
model, this seemed to be the right decision by the Mets, as
the odds of adding a solid player is high. The Indians were
able to add a short-term asset in Michael Bourn and still select
a player at a draft position with a high probability of success

22. McCann Contract Value Having Not
Received Qualifying Offer
Average Annual Value: $18M for 5 yr/$90M
McCann will benefit slightly, gaining an
additional $5M in guaranteed money
• His market value will not be drastically affected
due to his demand from large market and
competitive teams

23. Player Profile: Ubaldo Jimenez
Age: 29 (Entering season at 30)
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight: 6-5/210
Position: P
Contract:
$10M / 4 Years (2009 – 2012)
+ 2 Option Years

24. Salary Projection
3 years/$45 Million

25. Previous Stats
Season
G
IP
K/9
BB/9
ERA
FIP
WAR
2010
33
221.2
8.69
3.74
2.88
3.10
6.5
2011
32
188.1
8.60
3.73
4.68
3.67
3.3
2012
31
176.2
7.28
4.84
5.40
5.06
0.1
2013
32
182.2
9.56
3.94
3.30
3.43
3.2
Steamer
32
182.0
8.71
3.88
3.64
2.7
TRENDS:
3.74
*Stats according to Fangraphs
• Very durable. Since 2008, started 30+ games and pitched 170+ innings
• Enigmatic career, big stat fluctuation after trade in 2011 leading to
poor 2012
• Rebounded with much Improved 2013 season

26. Pitching Velocity
Season Team
vFA
vFT
vFC
vFS
vSI
vSL
vCU
vCH
91.7
86.0
75.8
86.0
86.1
78.0
86.3
2008
Rockies
95.4
90.0
2009
Rockies
96.0
91.2
2010
Rockies
95.8
96.3
89.1
86.3
78.7
87.0
2011
Rockies/
93.9
Indians
93.7
89.3
83.4
78.6
86.6
2012
Rockies
92.5
92.7
90.6
83.7
83.0
77.7
84.5
2013
Rockies
92.1
91.6
90.1
84.1
83.6
77.6
84.2
94.7
94.3
90.1
88.0
84.8
77.6
85.5
Total
---
90.0
*Stats according to Fangraphs
Fastball velocity significantly down from 95.4 MPH in 2008
to 92.1MPH in 2013

27. 2010 Pitch Selection
*Graphic via Brooks Baseball

28. 2013 Pitch Selection
*Graphic via Brooks Baseball

29. Comparable Free Agents
1.
2.
3.
4.
Edwin Jackson – 4 years/$52 million
Anibal Sanchez – 5 years/$80 million
Jorge De La Rosa – 4 years/$43 million
Kyle Lohse – 3 years/$33 million^
^- Received qualifying offer tied to draft pick
compensation

30. Edwin Jackson
Signed 4 yr/$52M contract following his age 28, 2012 season
Edwin Jackson
Ubaldo Jimenez
Season
FIP
Season
ERA
FIP
2009
3.62
4.28
2010
2.88
3.10
2010
4.47
3.86
2011
4.68
3.67
2011
3.79
3.55
2012
5.40
5.06
2012
Contract Year
ERA
4.03
3.85
2013
3.30
3.43
Contract Year
*Stats according to Fangraphs
• Jimenez’s Projected 2014 WAR: 2.7
• Jackson’s Projected 2013 WAR: 2.8
*Stats according to Fangraphs

31. Jorge De La Rosa
• Received contract guaranteeing 2 yr/$21.5M following 2010
season
• Included two additional player/team options that could potentially
raise total contract value to 4 yr/$43M
Statistic
De La Rosa – Age 29
Jimenez – Age 29
WHIP
1.32
1.33
BB/9
4.07
3.94
K/9
8.36
9.56
WAR
1.8
3.2
*Stats according to Fangraphs

32. Anibal Sanchez
• Received 5 yr/$80 million after age 28 season.
Stats
Sanchez – Age 28
Jimenez – Age 29
FIP
3.53
3.43
ERA
3.86
3.30
K/9
7.68
9.56
BB/9
2.21
3.94
WAR
3.7
3.2
*Stats according to Fangraphs
• Each pitcher is very durable, having thrown more than 150
innings each of the previous 3 seasons.

33. Market Conditions
• Competition: Ervin Santana, Matt Garza, Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes
• Possible Suitors: Blue Jays, Angels, Yankees, Indians, Phillies,
Cubs, Giants and others
What It Means:
 Several teams looking to bolster starting rotation
 Multiple comparable pitchers to Jimenez in this years class
 Several do not have qualifying offers (Garza, Nolasco, +
Hughes), potentially making them more valuable to teams
Conclusion: Similar to Kyle Lohse last offseason, the market for Jimenez may
take time to develop. As starters are signed, Jimenez’s asking price
will respond appropriately to the market

34. Kyle Lohse
• After age 33 season, received 3 yr/$33M deal following 2012
season **Received qualifying offer prior to contract**
• Lohse had incredible 2012 season leading into free agency.
• Contract likely diminished due to loss of daft pick tied to signing.
- Many teams weary to sign him, didn’t sign until March 25th
Lohse 2012 Season
ERA
2.86
FIP
3.51
K/9
6.10
BB/9
1.62
WAR
3.4
*Stats according to Fangraphs

35. Ubaldo’s Odd Year
• Latest year is most important when a player hits free agency
• Many assert Jimenez’s 2013 season started poorly and
significantly improved as season prolonged
• We believe bad fortune played role in his early poor starts.
Month (s)
HR/FB%
March/April
20%
May
16%
June
10.8%
July
8.3%
August
3.8%
September/October
0%
*Stats according to Fangraphs
Ubaldo’s career average HR/FB%:
8.7%

36. WAR Projection
• Same process used with Ubaldo as performed with McCann
- Ubaldo’s Steamer projects a 2.7 WAR.
Average Annual Value (AAV): $15M
• 2014: 2.7 WAR * $6 million= $16.2 million
• 2015: 2.2 WAR * $6 million= $13.2 million
• 2016: 1.7 WAR * $6 million= $10.2 million

37. Contract Value at Four Years
Projected Contract: 4 yr/$48.6M
•
•
•
•
2014: 2.7 WAR * $6 million= $16.2 million
2015: 2.2 WAR * $6 million= $13.2 million
2016: 1.7 WAR * $6 million= $10.2 million
2017: 1.2 WAR * $6 million= $7.2 million
With the smaller projected $7.2M in final year, the
AAV would decrease.

38. Contract Value for Two Years
Projected Contract: 2 yr/$29.4M
• 2014: 2.7 WAR * $6 million= $16.2 million
• 2015: 2.2 WAR * $6 million= $13.2 million
Ubaldo’s AAV would increase because the year in
which he is valued the least (final year of
contract) would presumably be removed

39. Jimenez Contract Value Having Not
Received Qualifying Offer
• Average Annual Value: $14M for total of 4 yr/$56M
• AAV decreases by $1M, however, Jimenez receives an
additional year and more guaranteed money
• Without having to give up a draft pick and draft pool
money, teams will be more willing to pay Jimenez
• Similar to Edwin Jackson 4 yr/$52M deal with Cubs