The document analyzes Cole Hamels' career statistics, performance, and potential trade value for the Philadelphia Phillies in relation to other Major League Baseball teams, particularly focusing on the Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Chicago Cubs. It highlights his strong track record, including consistent strikeout rates and salary comparisons, while assessing risk factors similar to players in his position. Additionally, the document elaborates on the strategic benefits of trading Hamels before the season starts to maximize value for both the Phillies and the acquiring team.

1. Diamond Dollars Case Competition
SABR Analytics Conference
Greg Ackerman, Colby Conetta, Ray Garzia, Justin Mattingly,
Joey Weinberg
Syracuse University

2.  Position: SP
 Age: 31 (Born December 27, 1983)
 Bats/Throws: L/L
 Height/Weight: 6’3”/200 lbs
 Drafted: 1st Round (17th Pick), 2002
 Service Time: 8.143 years

3.  At least 28 starts in every season since 2007
 K/9 Since 2006
 2006: 9.86
 2007: 8.69
 2008: 7.76
 2009: 7.81
 2010: 9.10
 2011: 8.08
 2012: 9.03
 2013: 8.26
 2014: 8.71
 Has been consistently well-above average throughout his career
Rating K/9 K%
Excellent 10.0 25.0%
Great 8.5 22.5%
Above Average 7.5 20.0%
Average 7.1 18.5%
Below Average 6.0 15.0%
Poor 5.0 12.5%
Awful 4.5 10.0%

4.  HR/9 Amongst Starting Pitchers (NL)
 2006: 1.29 63rd of 82 (35th of 41)
 2007: 1.23 65th of 79 (32nd of 42)
 2008: 1.11 59th of 86 (28th of 44)
 2009: 1.12 54th of 75 (35th of 43)
 2010: 1.12 72nd of 91(36th of 44)
 2011: 0.79 30th of 90 (19th of 48) Really turning it on since 2011.
 2012: 1.00 43rd of 85 (25th of 44)
 2013: 0.86 38th of 79 (24th of 43)
 2014: 0.62 15th of 87 (6th of 42)

5. Pitch Count By Season (% increase or decrease)
 2006: 2,178
 2007: 2,791 +28.2%
 2008: 3,427 +22.8 %
 2009: 3,116 -9.1%
 2010: 3,368 +8.1%
 2011: 3,132 -7.0%
 2012: 3,316 +5.9%
 2013: 3,423 +3.2%
 2014: 3,136 -8.4%

6.  AVG Pitches per start in each season*
 06: 94.7
 07: 99.6 (+5.2%)
 08: 103.9 (+4.3%)
 09: 99.0 (-4.7%)
 10: 104.4 (+5.5%) (combined rate of change over 07-10: +10.3%)
 11: 99.7 (-4.5%)
 12: 107.0 (+7.3%)
 13: 103.7 (-3.1%)
 14: 104.5 (+0.7%)
 (combined rate of change over 11-14: +10.7% since ‘06, +0.4% since ’10)

7. Year Base Salary Signing Bonus Total Salary
2015 $22,500,000 $1,000,000 $23,500,000
2016 $22,500,000 $1,000,000 $23,500,000
2017 $22,500,000 $1,000,000 $23,500,000
2018 $22,500,000 $1,000,000 $23,500,000
2019 *$20M Club Option ($6M
buyout)
-- $20,000,000 (Option)
$6,000,000 (Buyout)
TOTAL $110,000,000 (Option)
$96,000,000 (Buyout)
$4,000,000 $114,000,000 (Option)
$100,000,000 (Buyout)
*2019 option guaranteed if Hamels 1) has 400 IP in 2017-18, including 200 IP in 2018, and 2) is
not on the disabled list with a shoulder or elbow injury at the end of the 2018 season
*Cots Baseball Contracts

8. FA,
1036,
33%
SI
19%
CH
23%
CU
9%
FC
16%
2014 PITCH
FREQUENCY
Pitch Type Count
Velo
(mph)
pfx
HMov
(in.)
pfx
VMov
(in.)
H. Rel
(ft.)
V. Rel
(ft.)
Fourseam 1036 93.09 5.94 10.81 2.46 6.53
Sinker 585 93.05 9.79 8.14 2.48 6.41
Change 703 84.95 9.16 6.18 2.60 6.38
Curve 295 79.01 -3.24 -6.19 2.72 6.22
Cutter 505 89.52 1.51 6.29 2.61 6.39
*BrooksBaseball.net

9.  Used PECOTA projections to calculate future SIERA
 Used FanGraph’s formula for calculating WAR with SIERA in place of FIP (sWAR)
 Adjusted run environment for league and ballpark; then used teammate Kyle
Kendrick’s 2007-2011 seasons and 2014 season as method of comparison and got
results of 4.73 and 4.74 respectively.

10.  Kendrick works well as replacement level (for Hamels):
 Average fWAR of 0.2 per year spanning parts of 6 seasons in sample used.
 Large sample: 797.1 IP over sample used.
 Batted ball profile of typical replacement level.
 GB% within 0.2% of league average in 2014.
 Career 4.92 K/9 and 11.2 % HR/FB in line with expectations for replacement level.
 Same defense and home ballpark as Hamels for entire career.

11. Year Age K/PA SIERA sWAR Value* Salary
2015 31 22.7% 3.29 3.3 $21,395,979 $23,500,00
0
2016 32 20.9% 3.58 2.4 $15,560,712 $23,500,00
0
2017 33 20.6% 3.63 1.7 $11,022,171 $23,500,00
0
2018 34 20.3% 3.67 1.5 $9,725,445 $23,500,00
0
2019 35 20.8% 3.59 1.4 $8,428,719 $20,000,00
0
• 2015-2019 Value: $66,133,626; Salary: $114,000,000
• 2015-19 sWAR: 10.3
• *Value = sWAR * Market Value of a Win (calculated at $6,483,630)

12. Stat bWAR ERA ERA- FIP FIP- SIERA K-BB% K/9 IP
Hamels
in 2014
6.6 2.46 67 3.07 83 3.29 16.8% 8.71 204.2
Rank in
2014
4th 9th 9th 16th 14th 22nd 18th 20th 21st
He was one of the top 15 pitchers in the league in 2014.
*Baseball-Reference.com

13. Rank Name bWAR in Age 31 Season
1 Josh Beckett 5.8
2 James Shields 4.1
3 John Lackey 1.8
4 Adam Wainwright 6.2
5 Dan Haren -0.4
6 Gavin Floyd 0.7
7 Johan Santana 4.6
8 Scott Baker 0.2
9 Ricky Nolasco 0.0
10 Ervin Santana 1.2

14.  To assess risk, we used PECOTA from Baseball Prospectus to find the 33 highest
similarity scores to Hamels; among pitchers that have played through their age 35
season. We then recorded their bWAR for their age 31 through age 35 seasons.
 Injury risk: No long-term injuries. Missed two starts in April 2014 due to Bicep
Tendinitis, and returned and saw no lingering effects from the injury.
Age 31 32 33 34 35
Below 1 bWAR 36.36% 48.48% 72.73% 60.61% 75.76%
Below 2 bWAR 57.58% 66.67% 75.76% 63.64% 84.85%

15. Red Sox Dodgers Cubs
Win Projection: 86 (1st) Win Projection: 91 (1st) Win Projection: 84 (3rd)
Need ace starting pitcher Upgrade over Brett Anderson Uncertainty behind Jon Lester
Offered Jon Lester $135M
contract during offseason
Hanley Ramirez and Matt
Kemp Contracts Off the Books
Cheap Talent to offset Hamels’
contract
Great Depth, Surplus OF High end prospects to trade Wealth of young talent to trade
#6 Rated Farm (BP) #3 Rated Farm (BP) #1 Rated Farm (BP)
*Win projections from Steamer

16. Red Sox (BP 101 Rank) ETA Dodgers (Rank) ETA Cubs (Rank) ETA
M. Betts, OF MLB Y. Puig, OF MLB A. Rizzo, 1B MLB
X. Bogaerts, SS MLB C. Seager, SS (7) 2015 S. Castro, SS MLB
B. Swihart, C (17) 2015 J. Urias, LHP (10) 2016 A. Russell, SS (2) 2015
H. Owens, LHP (46) 2015 J. Pederson, OF
(18)
MLB K. Bryant, 3B (5) 2015
M. Margot, CF (61) 2016 G. Holmes, RHP
(79)
2018 J. Baez, 2B MLB
E. Rodriguez, LHP (65) 2015 E. Arruebarrena, SS MLB J. Soler, OF (19) MLB
R. Devers, 3B (90) 2019 J. Wieland, RHP MLB A. Alcantara, 2B/OF MLB
C. Vazquez, C MLB Z. Lee, RHP 2015 A. Almora, OF (38) 2016
M. Chavis, INF 2018 C. Anderson, RHP 2016 K. Hendricks, RHP MLB
M. Barnes, RHP MLB J. De Leon, RHP 2018 N. Ramirez, RHP MLB

17. Pitcher Team Age 2014 bWAR
J. Cueto CIN 29 6.4
J. Zimmermann WSH 28 4.9
D. Price DET 29 4.6
D. Fister WSH 31 4.5
R. Porcello BOS 26 4.0
J. Samardzija CHW 30 3.7
Y. Gallardo TEX 29 2.4
S. Kazmir OAK 31 1.7
T. Lincecum SFG 30 -0.7
 *Hamels 2014 bWAR: 6.6
 Cueto is a trade alternative to Hamels
 Others will cost one draft pick and free
agent market value at season’s end
 It is not in a team’s best interest to go
all-in on Hamels
 The team that values Hamels the
most will be willing to give up the
greatest package of players for him

18.  To measure the mutual benefit of both teams involved, we developed Trade Benefit
Factor (TBF) and Mutual Trade Benefit Factor (MTBF):
 Non Phillies TBF = Hamels’ Value – Hamels’ Contract + Playoff Bump + WS Bump – Prospects’ Value
 Phillies TBF = Hamels’ Contract Relief – Hamels’ Value + Prospects’ Value
 Mutual TBF = 𝑁𝑜𝑛 𝑃ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑇𝐵𝐹 ∗ 𝑃ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑇𝐵𝐹

19.  Used data from 1996-2014 and logistic regression to develop win curves for average
MLB team accounting for second wild card in each league.
 Used Steamer team win total projections from FanGraphs and “stickiness” from
Hardball Times to project win totals for MLB teams over next 5 seasons.
 Used Forbes’ 2013 revenue data from each team and linear regression model for the
2014-2015 offseason to develop market value of win for each team before accounting
for playoffs.
 Used info from “Diamonds Dollars: The Economics of Winning in Baseball” by Vince
Gennaro to estimate revenue bumps of reaching playoffs, reaching World Series, and
winning World Series.

22. Non-Phillies Side
Team HV Con PP PB WSB Pros Total
Red Sox 101.0 -114 0 33.3 31.4 -8.0 49.5
Dodgers 82.9 -114 10.0 38.2 27.6 -8.0 36.8
Cubs 75.3 -114 12.5 30.5 34.2 -8.0 30.5
Phillies Side and Mutual
Team HV Con PP Pros Total MTBF
Red Sox -75 114 0 6.0 45.0 47.2
Dodgers -75 114 -10.0 6.0 35.0 35.9
Cubs -75 114 -12.5 6.0 32.5 31.5

23.  A “perfect” Cole Hamels trade would be completed prior to the start of the regular
season
 Team receiving Hamels obtains his services for a full season
 Phillies can develop incoming players
 Value of a win doubles in July (Dave Cameron, 8/14); good for Phillies, not ideal for trade
partner

24. To Phillies To Red Sox
Mookie Betts, 2B/OF
Henry Owens, LHP
Blake Swihart, C
Matt Barnes, RHP
Cole Hamels, LHP
Ben Lively, RHP

25. Current fWAR With Hamels fWAR
Rick Porcello 3.2 Cole Hamels 3.4**
Wade Miley 2.1 Rick Porcello 3.2
Clay Buchholz 2.2 Wade Miley 2.1
Joe Kelly 1.1 Clay Buchholz 2.2
Justin Masterson 1.8 Joe Kelly 1.8
Total 10.4 Total 12.7
• 2.3 WAR improvement = $14,912,349 value
*Hamels projection is sWAR
*All other projections via Steamer

26. RoyalsReview.com

27. Player Cost-Controlled
Years
WAR (per year) Value)
M. Betts** 5 3.9 $126,430,785
H. Owens 6 0.9 $35,011,602
B. Swihart 6 1.4 $54,462,492
M. Barnes 6 0.5 $19,450,890
Total 23 -- $235,355,769
**Betts 5-year projection from PECOTA, seemingly very high

28.  Benefits from Designated Hitter
 Less injury risk as Hamels ages
 According to park factors, Fenway Park allows less home runs to both righties
and lefties than does Citizens Bank Park
 Christian Vazquez graded as the ninth best framer in baseball in 2014,
according to Baseball Prospectus’s Framing Runs Added By Count. Ruiz
ranked 98th.

29.  Hamels is an elite contact manager. Left side of Boston infield is defensively sound.
Outfield defense is adequate.
 Allows ground balls 46% of the time
 Has equal career numbers against righties and lefties
 Won’t allow many home runs over the Green Monster

30.  Mookie Betts was unranked by Baseball Prospectus in 2014. Could be a sign of a hot
season.
 Blake Swihart, ranked 17th by Baseball Prospectus, has a 38.9% chance of being a
bust, 61.1% chance of being a success (at least an average player by WAR)
 Henry Owens, ranked 46th by Baseball Prospectus, has a 79.1% chance of being a
bust, 20.9% chance of being a success
 Matt Barnes is ranked in the top ten among prospects in the Red Sox system by
Baseball Prospectus
*Success: >1.5 WAR per season during 6 cost-controlled seasons
*Bust: <1.5 WAR
*Percentages courtesy of research done by Royals Review

31. To Phillies To Dodgers
Corey Seager, SS
Julio Urias, LHP
Chris Anderson, RHP
Austin Barnes, C
Cole Hamels, LHP
$10M ($2M/season until 2019)

32. Current fWAR With Hamels fWAR
Clayton Kershaw 5.2 Clayton Kershaw 5.2
Zack Greinke 3.2 Cole Hamels 3.4**
Hyun-Jin Ryu 2.4 Zack Greinke 3.2
Brandon McCarthy 2.0 Hyun-Jin Ryu 2.4
Brett Anderson 0.8 Brandon McCarthy 2.0
Total 13.6 Total 16.2
• 2.6 WAR improvement = $16,857,438 value
**Hamels projection is sWAR
*All other projections via Steamer

33. Player Cost-Controlled Years WAR (per year) Value
C. Seager 6 1.7 $66,133,026
J. Urias 6 1.5 $58,352,670
C. Anderson 6 0.8 $31,121,424
A. Barnes 6 0.4 $15,560,712
Total 24 -- $171,167,832

34.  Benefits from above-average framing of Yasmani Grandal, who was the sixth best
framer in the majors in 2014 by Framing Runs Added By Count, according to Baseball
Prospectus
 By park factors, Dodger Stadium is less prone to home runs by both righties and
lefties than is Citizens Bank Park
 1.64 ERA in three starts in Dodger Stadium in his career
 Dodgers infield defense is strong. Familiarity with Rollins

36.  Corey Seager, ranked 7th by Baseball Prospectus, has a 38.9% chance of being a
bust, 61.1% chance of being a success (at least an average player by WAR)
 Julio Urias, ranked 10th by Baseball Prospectus, has a 61.2% of being a bust, 38.9%
chance of being a success
 Chris Anderson is ranked in the top ten amongst prospects in the Dodgers system by
Baseball Prospectus
 Austin Barnes is unranked
*Success: >1.5 WAR per season during 6 cost-controlled seasons
*Bust: <1.5 WAR
*Percentages courtesy of research done by Royals Review