1. Finding A Home For
The Panda
Diamond Dollars Case Competition
NYU 2014
Syracuse University
Matt Filippi, Brandon Lane, Jeremy Losak, Zack Potter, Matt Russo

2. Player Profile: Pablo Sandoval
• Position: 3B
• Age: 28 (Born August 11, 1986)
• Bats/Throws: S/R
• Height/Weight: 5’11’’/245 lbs
• Signed: International Free
Agent by Giants in 2002

3. Suitors
• Tend to bring back
players from World
Series teams
• No obvious in-house
candidate to replace him
• Homegrown and fan-favorite
player
• 2015 contender
• Reported mutual interest
in a re-signing
• Obvious hole at 3B
• Traditionally big
spenders in free agency
• Power & counting stats
could improve in Fenway
Park
• 2015 contender
• Reported strong interest
in Sandoval

4. Offense
Season G HR BB% K% wOBA wRC+ f.WAR
2009 153 25 8.2% 13.1% .399 146 5.1
2010 152 13 7.6% 13.1% .316 96 1.4
2011 117 23 6.9% 13.5% .383 149 5.5
2012 108 12 8.6% 13.3% .338 118 2.6
2013 141 14 8% 13.5% .331 116 2.3
2014 157 16 6.1% 13.3% .323 111 3
Steamer 2015 146 21 7.4% 13.6% .344 120 3.8
Trends:
*stats via Fangraphs
• Remarkably consistent  high floor, low ceiling offensive player
• Relatively average walk rate, low strikeout rate
• Low power numbers for a top third baseman

5. Defense
Year Rdrs/yr UZR/150 1-10% 10-40% 40-60% 60-90% 90-100%
2009 -13 -5.7 -- -- -- -- --
2010 1 -0.5 -- -- -- -- --
2011 20 19.3 -- -- -- -- --
2012 -7 1.4 25% 7.7% 52.4% 88% 96.3%
2013 -5 -6.3 0% 42.9% 60.9% 83.3% 94.3%
2014 4 3.5 3.3% 15% 71.4% 89.4% 96.5%
Trends:
• Numbers indicate that Sandoval is a slightly below-average to
average defender
• 2011 ratings most likely an outlier due to noise, small sample size
“…defense is good enough for the near future but a combination of his age,
weight, and lack of range may turn him into a ‘step and a dive’ third baseman”
– BP Hot Stove Scouting Report
*stats via Fangraphs

6. Makeup/Miscellaneous
• Sandoval’s popularity, fan-friendliness,
and “Kung Fu Panda”
persona may seem silly, but
baseball is a business and this could
positively effect the bottom line
• .344/.389/.545 slash line in 39
career postseason games
• No on-field or off-field altercations
or incidents that we know of
• Might have to switch to 1B or DH as
he ages into his 30’s

7. Weight/Durability
• Listed at 5’11”, 245 lbs.
• Has been asked to slim down
multiple times in the past
• Mixed results, at best
• Four DL stints in the past four
seasons
• Two broken hamate bones (wrist)
• Left hamstring strain
• Left foot strain
• 190 professional games at catcher
which could play a factor in future
durability
• Are his knees “older” than 28?

8. Comparable: Juan Uribe
• Signed 3 year/$21 million contract with Los Angeles Dodgers
after 2010 season
• Entering his age 32 season
• Big bodied 3B  similar to Sandoval?
OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCE LEADING INTO
67
FREE AGENCY
Uribe Sandoval
71 75
115
102
96
149
118 116 111
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
5 4 3 2 1
WRC+
YEARS BEFORE FREE AGENCY

9. Comparable: Aramis Ramirez
• Signed 5 year/$73 million contract with Chicago Cubs before
2007 season
• Entering his age 29 season
• Last “big-name” free agent 3B to hit the open market while
still in his 20’s
Stat Ramirez - 2006 Sandoval - 2014
WAR 3.9 3.0
ISO .269 .136
wOBA .381 .323
wRC+ 125 111

10. Comparable: Adrian Beltre
• Signed 5 years/$80 million with the Texas Rangers before the
2011 season
• Option for 6th year at $16 million
• Entering his age 32 season
Stat Beltre – 2010 Sandoval - 2014
WAR 6.6 3.0
ISO .233 .136
wOBA .391 .323
wRC+ 140 111

11. Comparable Extensions
• Evan Longoria – Signed
6 year/$100 million extension
with Tampa Bay Rays before
2013 season
• Signed extension at age 27
• Extension kicks in for the 2017
season, extends through 2022
• Club option for 2023 worth $13
million
• Ryan Zimmerman – Signed
6 year/$100 million extension
with Washington Nationals
before 2012 season
• Signed extension at age 27
• Extension kicked in for the 2014
season, extends through 2019
• Club option for 2020 worth $18
million

12. Current 3B Market
• Hanley Ramirez, 31
• 13th highest projected WAR among 3B
• Chase Headley, 30
• 9th highest projected WAR among 3B
• Mark Reynolds, 31
• 49th highest projected WAR among 3B
• Alberto Callaspo, 30
• 50th highest projected WAR among 3B
*All projections via Steamer

13. Payroll Inflation Since 2006
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
-4
Inflation
percent
*Data via ESPN
• Market inflation rate has increased greatly since 2009, especially
following MLB’s new broadcast contracts with FOX, Turner, and ESPN
• Major TV deals were signed in 2012
• New money has entered the market, and teams have adjusted for it
• 2014 inflation rate will be between 5-10 percent

14. Market Value Of A Win
Methodology
• Dependent Variable: Market value of a win
• Compensation Variable Included To Adjust – more
guys who get compensation picks indicates more
top heavy free agents (would increase market
value of a win)
• Dummy Variables For Years (since we do not know
2014 coefficient, take average of years in model)
• WAR_1_ indicates previous season’s WAR and
WAR_2_ indicates WAR from two seasons ago
(proxy for projected WAR)
• Provides us a model to determine market value of
a win.
• Plug in our 2014 values: compensation (.125 of
available FA), the aggregate dummy for year,
average age of players on the market (32.7 years),
average of WAR_1_ entering the market (0.85) and
WAR_2_ entering the market (1.12). WE
CALCULATE THE VALUE OF A WIN TO BE $7.8
MILLION.
Variable Coefficient
C 37134586***
Compensation 11506674***
Seven 4178805
Eight 2483586
Nine -3495581
Ten -3584401
Eleven 3040002
Twelve -455993.7
Thirteen 6501531
Age -1316098***
WAR_1_ 8309560***
WAR_2_ 3721281***
t-stat values adjusted for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation

15. Market Value Of A Win
Methodology (Cont.)
• Dave Cameron projected
the market value of a win:
$6 million
• Seems slightly
conservative given recent
spending in the market
(see cost per win via Lewie
Pollis)
• $7.8 million seems too
steep
• We decide to average the
two values to put us at A
FINAL MARKET VALUE OF
$6.9 MILLION PER WIN

16. Dave Cameron’s Win Curve
• Up to age 30: 90% of previous year’s WAR
• Ages 31-35: 85% of previous year’s WAR
• Age 36 and up: 80% of previous year’s WAR
“...I’ve tweaked the aging curve assumption so as to hopefully represent player
contribution a little more fairly, rather than just knocking half a win per season
off everyone’s forecast in perpetuity…These results line up quite well with our
general understanding of how players age, and produce results that are similar
to what systems like ZIPS produce when creating long term forecasts”
– Dave Cameron
The Cost of a Win in the 2014 Off-Season

17. Depreciating Value Of Future
Win
• Do we pay the same market value for a win year after year?
• Risk plays a huge role in depreciating market value of win
• What if a player gets hurt? Big risk he does not produce even
in accordance to the aging curve.
• Dave Cameron suggests 5% to be the deflation value
• Money is worth more today than it will be worth in the future

18. Projecting the Contract
• Using Dave Cameron’s aging curve and market value deflation:
Year Proj. WAR Value of 1 win Total player value
2015 3.8 * $6.9 million = $26.22 million
2016 3.42 * $6.56 million = $22.44 million
2017 3.08 * $6.23 million = $19.19 million
2018 2.62 * $5.92 million = $15.51 million
2019 2.22 * $5.62 million = $12.48 million
2020 1.89 * $5.34 million = $10.09 million
2021 1.61 * $5.07 million = $8.16 million
4 year contract: $83.36M  $20.84M AAV
5 year contract: $95.84M  $19.17M AAV
6 year contract:$105.93M $17.66M AAV
7 year contract:$114.09M $16.30M AAV

19. Adjusting the Aging Curve
In order to get a better estimate of how Sandoval might age, we
looked at specific clusters of players that he fits into, including:
• Third basemen
• Players with bad bodies
• “True Total Contact Rate”
“We’re in an interesting era for age curves because of the skew of
performance-enhancing drugs. We are trying to re-evaluate aging curves
because they were taken way out of whack because of the influence of
performance-enhancing drugs”
– Pittsburgh Pirates GM Neal Huntington

20. “True Contact Rate”
True
Contact
Rate
= Swing% X Contact% =
# Of Pitches
Made Contact
# Of Pitches
Seen
• Combines the aggressiveness/patience of swing% with the
ability to make contact of contact%
• Which players have the best natural hitting abilities to make
contact with any pitch regardless of type or location?
• You would want these guys up in hit-and-run situations for
sure

21. True Contact Rate – 2014
Name Top Five TCR
Pablo Sandoval 0.503
Salvador Perez 0.477
Justin Morneau 0.472
Jose Altuve 0.470
Adeiny Hechavarria 0.463
.
.
.
.
.
.
Name Bottom Five TCR
Lucas Duda 0.307
Giancarlo Stanton 0.307
Carlos Santana 0.305
Matt Carpenter 0.298
Adam Dunn 0.277

22. Aging Curve Methodology
• Dependent Variable: Delta
WAR – change in WAR from
previous season to current
season (regression in aging
curve)
• Body_Ratio: Weight/Height
(data from Lahman database
and fangraphs)
• _3B: Adjustment for how 3B
regress compared to other
positions
Variable Coefficient
C 0.728843
Age -0.046198***
Body_Ratio 0.067925
_3B -0.190476
True_Contact_Rate 0.550094
Pablo Sandoval: ages (between 28-34), Body_Ratio = 3.45, TrueContactRate =
.503

23. Sandoval’s Adjusted Aging Curve
Year Change in WAR
2016 -0.24
2017 -0.29
2018 -0.34
2019 -0.38
2020 -0.43
2021 -0.47

24. Projecting the Contract
• Using our final aging curve:
Year Proj. WAR Value of 1 win Total player value
2015 3.8 * $6.9 million = $26.22 million
2016 3.56 * $6.56 million = $23.55 million
2017 3.27 * $6.23 million = $20.37 million
2018 2.93 * $5.92 million = $17.35 million
2019 2.55 * $5.62 million = $14.33 million
2020 2.12 * $5.34 million = $11.32 million
2021 1.65 * $5.07 million = $8.37 million
4 year contract: $87.49M  $21.87M AAV
5 year contract: $101.82M  $20.36M AAV
6 year contract: $113.14M  $18.86M AAV
7 year contract: $121.51M  $17.36M AAV

25. This Projection Still Does Not
Take Into Account…
• Positive Makeup (+)
• Popularity and Marketability (++)
• Postseason Performance (+)
• Wear and tear on knees from catching experience (-)
• Possibility (probability?) of position switch (--)
• Value of Draft Pick (-)

26. Final Projections
• 4 years: $89 million
• 5 years: $102.5 million
• 6 years: $113 million
• 5 years: $101 million
• 6 years: $112 million
• 7 years: $120 million
AAV: $20.5 million AAV: $18.67 million

27. Draft Pick Value
“Now, because the flow of cash into the draft is restricted, draft dollars
are worth more than their face value. Any team wanting to acquire
draft pool allocation has to pay more than $1 for $1 in order to do so,
since draft dollars are a limited resource relative to a team’s access to
capital.”
“In conversations with people in MLB front offices, the general
consensus has ranged around a 3X valuation for draft pick dollars, so a
pick with a slot value of $2 million would be worth $6 million in open
market dollars.”
- Dave Cameron
The Pointlessness of Signing After the Draft

28. Not Receiving Qualifying Offer
• Cost of a qualifying offer varies significantly from team to team
• Pick #10 is different from Pick #12 which is different from Pick #30
• Giants and Red Sox happen to be two teams that are relatively
unaffected by Sandoval’s qualifying offer
• Not receiving qualifying offer would increase his offers by a
small, but nonzero amount…Our guess: $2 million
• Giants: 5 years/$104.5 million
• Red Sox: 6 years/$114 million
• Both teams are trying to win now
• Slot values of both picks are between $1-2 million
• Pablo Sandoval is a good enough player where losing the pick
barely matters to organizations high on the “win curve”