Actions You Can Take After Great Recession

775 views

Published on

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
775
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
17
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
17
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Actions You Can Take After Great Recession

  1. 1. Lessons Learned: Actions you can take after the Great Recession<br />[Presenter name] [Presenter title]<br />Brokerage, investment and financial advisory services are made available through Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC. Some products and services may not be available in all jurisdictions or to all clients. <br />© 2010 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. (4/10)<br />
  2. 2. Why I do what I do<br />
  3. 3. The Four Cornerstones<br />Cash & Liabilities<br />Smart cash and debt<br />management strategies<br />that can help you find<br />additional assets <br />and save more<br />effectively.<br />Protection<br />Find ways to protect your life, family, auto and<br /> the things you <br />care about. <br />Taxes<br />Leverage tax <br />strategies to help you<br />more effectively reach<br />your goals and plan your estate.<br />Investments<br />Build investment <br />strategies to help you <br />reach your longer-term goals.<br />
  4. 4. <ul><li>How we arrived where we are today.
  5. 5. Putting today’s markets in historical perspective.
  6. 6. Fundamental investment strategies to help you deal with and even find opportunity in volatile markets.
  7. 7. Managing emotions as part of the investment process.
  8. 8. Steps to consider taking now.</li></ul>Evaluating market volatility<br />Ameriprise Financial cannot guarantee future financial results.Ameriprise Financial and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice. Consult your tax advisor or attorney regarding specific tax issues.<br />
  9. 9. <ul><li>An oversupply of lending which drove up home values and resulted in the eventual collapse of the U.S. housing market.
  10. 10. Repercussions from the subprime mortgage crisis which spread to global capital markets.
  11. 11. The residual impact of the current credit crisis and the follow-on effect it has had on the global economy.</li></ul>What’s been driving market volatility?<br />
  12. 12. 1987-1991<br /><ul><li>Real estate prices collapse.
  13. 13. Largest one-day loss in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
  14. 14. Sub-prime bond market collapses, real estate continues to decline, credit dries up, savings institutions weaken.
  15. 15. Government bailout is enacted. Billions of taxpayer dollars spent to deal with failing lending institutions.
  16. 16. Recession sets in leading to another stock market decline.</li></ul>I read the news today<br />The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that follows the returns of 30 well-established American companies, and is frequently used as a general measure of market performance. The index reflects reinvestment of all distributions and changes in the market prices, but excludes brokerage commissions and other fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.<br />
  17. 17. The “flaw” of averages<br />S&P 500 Annual Returns 1926-2009<br />The Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Market Index (S&P 500) is an unmanaged index and is not intended to represent specific mutual funds. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Individual results may vary due to management fees, transaction costs and taxes. Performance figures do not take into account the fees and expenses of investing. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. <br />Source: Morningstar for 1926 to 1969; Standard & Poor’s,1970 to present. <br />
  18. 18. 49.6%<br />29.6%<br />9.6%<br />-10.4%<br />-30.4%<br />Measuring volatility<br />S&P 500 stock index 1926-2009<br />Average return has been 9.6%<br />Standard deviation (volatility) has been about 20%<br />Range of returns is about 50% to -30%<br />Probability range is 95% — returns can be worse (or better) than those shown here<br />Source: 2009 Standard and Poor’s 500 Stock Market Index. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Market Index (S&P 500) is an unmanaged index and is not intended to represent specific mutual funds. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Individual results may vary due to management fees, transaction costs and taxes. Performance figures do not take into account the fees and expenses of investing. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.<br />
  19. 19. Stock market returns over time<br />S&P 500 group of stocks <br />Annual returns from 1926 to 2009<br />Return<br />Year<br />Source: Chart created by Ameriprise Seminar Development based on 2009 data from the Standard & Poor’s 500 Market Index.<br />
  20. 20. 61%<br />30%<br />19%<br />18%<br />7%<br />-2%<br />-7%<br />- 43%<br />1 year<br />20 years<br />5 years<br />10 years<br />S&P 500 historical range of returns<br />1970-2009<br />Positive change<br />No change<br />Negative change<br />Rolling averages<br />Source: Chart created by Ameriprise Seminar Development based on 2009 data from Standard & Poor’s 500 Market Index.<br />The highest return is represented by the top of each bar and the lowest annual return is shown at the bottom. The rolling 5-,10- and 20-year ranges are also shown. Over time, lower performing years will be offset by higher performing years and vice versa. Therefore the range of the historical returns over the entire period is narrower than the range of returns in any single year. Returns over 1 year in length are annualized. <br />
  21. 21. Looking back over the current decade<br />30<br />25<br />20<br />15<br />10<br />5<br />0<br />-5<br />-10<br />-15<br />-20<br />-25<br />-30<br />-35<br />-40<br />26%<br />28%<br />16%<br />11%<br />5%<br />5%<br />-9%<br />-12%<br />- 23%<br />-37%<br /> 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009<br />Source: Chart created by Ameriprise Seminar Development based on 2009 data from Standard & Poor’s 500 Market Index.<br />
  22. 22. Comparing this decade to others<br />Annualized performance of the S&P 500<br />20<br />15<br />10<br />5<br />0<br />-5<br />19%<br />18%<br />18%<br />9%<br />9%<br />8%<br />6%<br />-0.05%<br />-1%<br /> 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 70s 80s 90s 0 (1925 – 1929) (2000 – 2009)<br />Source: Chart created by Ameriprise Seminar Development based on 2009 data from Standard & Poor’s 500 Market Index.<br />
  23. 23. <ul><li>Diversify to manage business, market, and interest rate risk.
  24. 24. Rebalance your portfolio if it is appropriate.
  25. 25. Consider current and future tax ramifications of your actions.
  26. 26. Dollar-cost average to help keep your investment strategy on track.
  27. 27. Manage your emotions by following a disciplined plan based on solid fundamentals, not emotion.</li></ul>Long-term investing strategies<br />Dollar-cost averaging involves continuous investment in securities, regardless of fluctuating price levels. Investors should consider their ability to continue purchases through periods of low price levels. Diversification and asset allocation help spread risk throughout your portfolio, so that investments that do poorly may be balanced by others that do relatively better. Dollar-cost averaging, diversification and asset allocation do not guarantee overall portfolio profit or protect against loss in declining markets.<br />Ameriprise Financial and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice. Consult your tax advisor or attorney regarding specific tax issues.<br />
  28. 28. Historic volatility by standard deviation<br />Stocks<br />41%<br />Bonds<br />26%<br />20%<br />14%<br />S&P 500 <br />Stock Index<br />1976-2009<br />Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index (formerly Lehman Aggregate Bond Index) <br />1976-2009<br />11%<br />8%<br />3%<br />-3%<br />-4%<br />-19%<br />Sources: 2009 Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Market Index and Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index . Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index (formerly Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index), an unmanaged index, is made up of a representative list of government, corporate, asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities. The index is frequently used as a general measure of bond market performance. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.<br />
  29. 29. <ul><li>Asset classes </li></ul>(stocks, bonds, cash, real estate, etc.)<br /><ul><li>Investment products</li></ul>(mutual funds, annuities, ETFs)<br /><ul><li>Tax characteristics </li></ul>(taxable, tax-deferred, tax-free)<br />Diversification considerations<br />Diversification helps you spread risk throughout your portfolio, so that investments that do poorly may be balanced by others that do relatively better. Diversification and asset allocation do not guarantee overall portfolio profit or protection against loss.<br />
  30. 30. S&P 500 Index<br />Diversification helps temper volatility<br />Performance of Stocks, Bonds and 50/50 Mix 1990 to 2009<br />2009<br />1999<br />1990<br />Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index <br />(formerly Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index)<br />50/50 Mix<br />Source: Chart created by Ameriprise Seminar Development based on data from 2009 Standard and Poor’s, Barclay’s Capital. Combined returns based on calculation of 50% of S&P 500 return, 50% of Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index return. Past performance does not guarantee future results. These examples do not reflect sales charges, taxes or other costs associated with investing. <br />
  31. 31. S&P 500 Index<br />Diversification helps temper volatility<br />Performance of Stocks, Bonds and 50/50 Mix 1990 to 2009<br />2009<br />1999<br />1990<br />Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index <br />(formerly Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index)<br />50/50 Mix<br />Source: Chart created by Ameriprise Seminar Development based on data from 2009 Standard and Poor’s, Barclay’s Capital. Combined returns based on calculation of 50% of S&P 500 return, 50% of Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index return. Past performance does not guarantee future results. These examples do not reflect sales charges, taxes or other costs associated with investing. <br />
  32. 32. 50% <br />Bonds<br />50% <br />Stocks<br />50% <br />Stocks<br />50% <br />Bonds<br />40% <br />Bonds<br />60% <br />Stocks<br />Rebalancing helps keep you on track<br />Initial allocation<br />Rebalance back<br />One year later<br />
  33. 33. Dollar-cost averaging <br />Price rises<br />$25<br />$20<br />$15<br />$10<br />$5<br />$0<br />1 2 3 4 5 6<br />Average price: $15.00 per share Average cost: $14.19 per share<br />Invested amount: $6,000.00 Ending value: $8,456.40<br />Dollar-cost averaging does not guarantee a profit or protect against losses in a declining market. Investors should consider their ability to continue investing during periods of low markets. This illustration is hypothetical and is not a forecast or guarantee of specific investment results.<br />
  34. 34. Dollar-cost averaging <br />Downturn followed by full recovery<br />$25<br />$20<br />$15<br />$10<br />$5<br />$0<br />1 2 3 4 5 6<br />Average price: $15.00 per share Average cost: $13.85 per share<br />Invested amount: $6,000.00 Ending value: $8,666.80<br />This illustration is hypothetical and is not a forecast or guarantee of specific investment results.<br />
  35. 35. Dollar-cost averaging <br />Downturn followed by partial recovery<br />$25<br />$20<br />$15<br />$10<br />$5<br />$0<br />1 2 3 4 5 6<br />Average price: $10.83 per share Average cost: $9.73 per share<br />Invested amount: $6,000.00 Ending value: $7,166.70<br /> This illustration is hypothetical and is not a forecast or guarantee of specific investment results.<br />
  36. 36. Three markets — three positive results<br />Invested $6,000 in monthly $1,000 increments<br />$10,000<br />$7,500<br />$5,000<br />$8,667<br />$8,456<br />$7,167<br />Market down:<br />partial recovery<br />Market down:<br />full recovery<br />Market goes up<br />This illustration is hypothetical and is not a forecast or guarantee of specific investment results.<br />
  37. 37. Euphoria<br />A high point of financial risk<br />Anxiety<br />Thrill<br />Denial<br />“Wow, I am<br />making money.<br />I feel good about this investment.”<br />“This is just a temporary setback.”<br />Excitement<br />Fear<br />Optimism<br />Optimism<br />Desperation<br />Panic<br />Relief<br />Capitulation<br />“I think I need to sell.”<br />Despondency<br />Hope<br />“Things may be turning around.”<br />Depression<br />A low point of financial opportunity<br />Understanding emotional investing<br />Source: Radarwire.com. A product of Simon Economic Systems, Ltd. <br />
  38. 38. Average equity investor lags the market<br />Equity market returns v. equity mutual fund <br />investors’ returns<br />16%<br />12%<br />8.4%<br />8%<br />4%<br />2.9%<br />1.9%<br />0%<br />S&P 500 Index<br />Average equity<br />Fund investor<br />Inflation<br />Source: : Chart created by Ameriprise Seminar Development based on data from Dalbar, Inc., 2009 Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior for the period (1988 - 2008). Benchmark returns represented by total returns of the S&P 500. Performance figures do not take into account the fees and expenses of investing. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.<br />
  39. 39. <ul><li>Focuses on your goals, not short-term market conditions.
  40. 40. Assesses your risk tolerance.
  41. 41. Employs time-tested disciplines to dampen market volatility, such as rebalancing, dollar-cost averaging and opportunity purchases.
  42. 42. Takes taxes into consideration.
  43. 43. Helps you neutralize the inclination to make emotional investment decisions.
  44. 44. Provides for review and rebalancing on a regular basis.
  45. 45. A financial plan may help you feel more on track during market turmoil.</li></ul>Benefits of a personalized financial plan<br />
  46. 46. <ul><li>Diversify, diversify, diversify.
  47. 47. Rebalance or review your asset allocation.
  48. 48. Use Dollar-cost averaging.
  49. 49. Avoid market timing, but prepare for opportunities.
  50. 50. Don’t let your emotions affect your financial future.
  51. 51. Obtain or review your financial plan.</li></ul>Considerations<br />
  52. 52. Next steps<br />
  53. 53. Thank you.<br />[Presenter name] <br />[Presenter title]<br />[Contact information]<br />Brokerage, investment and financial advisory services are made available through Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC. Some products and services may not be available in all jurisdictions or to all clients. <br />© 2010 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. <br />

×