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1. John Thornhill
Devolution – The Manchester College Group Perspective
CEO Manchester College Group

2. • Market regulator & market maker
• A constrained public purse
• By 2016/2017 BIS budget reduced by 60%
• December 2014 – BIS Lender of last resort
• Jan 2015 – Project team to look at viability of skills sector
Government
• Mergers, acquisitions, more risk for private providers
• 377 colleges accounts published April 2014, 145 are loss making
• Cuts now coming to Sixth form and high schools
• Skills gap in sector to manage issues and challenges
• In 2015 first time ever sector nationally will be in deficit
• All parties saying no new money post election
The Sector
• Localism
• Fee paying
• Skills capital insufficient to allow re shape and refocus
• Over capacity, stranded assets, national policy disconnect with regional need
Regions
Provider context

3. Improved
Quality
Greater
focus
English,
Maths,
Technical
19%
demographic
growth
Invest
in skills
priorities
Invest
in
Facilities,
Sites &
New
quals
The expectation
Much more for less = Much more than efficiency

4. G.M. Devolution and Skills
A once in a generation opportunity

5. But….an interconnected £1Bn+ system (Inefficient)
14 16 18 21 24+
Around 1000 Private Training Providers
Public/Private
Public
Private Funded
Private Higher Education
BPP, Kaplan etc
Large Employers - Trailblazers
Schools
Academic & Vocational
4 Universities
6 He in FE
Six Form
Colleges
FE Colleges x 10
New National Colleges
4 UTC’s
Voluntary Organisations
GMCVO
Councils
Chamber of
Commerce
EOS

6. Population Growth @ 5%
School leavers down 2%
University
FE College
200+ Private Providers
Sixth Form College
New Build UTC
Voluntary Delivery
Alignment to Skills
Priorities?
Impact
• Over supply of capacity +20%
Significant wasted capital spend
• Stranded assets
Bolton
Alignment to Skills Priorities
Impact
• Low traction on strategy
• Huge variance on match to skills need
• Huge inefficiency/Stranded assets
• Major disconnect on policy
Highest growth-Adults 24-40 (Non UK)
950 Private Providers
Two Universities
One FE College
Sixth form colleges
Large employers
High self funded element
These will need difficult decisions
Example…..Local Strategies – Different in GM
Manchester
Population Growth @19%
School leavers down 4%

7. What does this mean for you?
• More partnerships and collaborations or more scale and competence
• Your value is delivery and INNOVATION
• Bidding alone or with others a core competence
• Different competition
• Reframe your contribution
• The hourglass labour market
– 45% of jobs by 2024 L4 or above
• A growing learner led system
• Big challenges in progression and pathways
• Help and support, Politicians, officers and projects

8. Oversight
co-ordination
and
operational
framework
Policy and
Governance
alignment
Regional
strategy
consistency
Business
support
Export/
international
Finance and
skills gaps
Structured
capable supply
chain
Productivity,
business
solutions
Capable feed to
supply chain
Aligned and
incentivised
skills offer
Economic
development
and insight
Build and develop the integrated model

9. Airport City £600m investment
High Speed 2 and Northern Rail Hub
East Manchester Regeneration – 6000
new homes
Population Growth – circa 20% to
continue
Working tax credit as big a burden as
unemployed
Pay of Manchester residents lags pay
of those who work in Manchester
Significant skills gap at Level 4
Some sectors very poorly supported
e.g. Digital and Media
BUT
Political context
Managing the extremes – Growing Manchester Dichotomy

10. In a devolved world
Electorate, business and stakeholders will demand this.
All will want their share of a growing and increasingly prosperous
region