The document outlines a case study on using the Delphi method for forecasting sales of a new smartphone, emphasizing a step-by-step consensus-building approach that gathers expert opinions through multiple rounds of questionnaires. Experts from various fields, such as market analysis and product management, are consulted to define the problem, pose questions, and analyze responses to arrive at a range of sales targets for the first year. Ultimately, the consensus suggests a sales target range of 550,000 to 650,000 units, helping the company make informed decisions based on expert insights.

1. Real case study step by step
DELPHI METHOD
ENGLISH
Sales Forecasting

2. DELPHI METHOD
The Delphi method is a consensus-building approach where experts provide anonymous feedback
and opinions through multiple rounds of questionnaires until a consensus is reached.

3. A company is launching a new smartphone model and wants to predict the sales targets for
the first year of its release.
STUDY PROBLEM
The Delphi method is a consensus-building approach where experts provide anonymous feedback
and opinions through multiple rounds of questionnaires until a consensus is reached.
DELPHI METHOD

4. Step 1: Choose a Facilitator
The facilitator collects expert opinions, guides communication, ensures anonymity,
summarizes responses, and aids consensus without bias.
It is helpful to have someone familiar with research and data collection.
Neutral facilitator
Feedback compilation
Facilitation techniques
Subject matter expertise
Effective communication

5. Step 1: Choose a Facilitator
He is expected to guide and gather opinions to reach consensus on sales targets
with subject expertise and impartiality.
John Smith, the Senior Market Analyst, is designated as the facilitator.

6. Experts are usually subject matter experts, industry specialists, academics, researchers,
consultants, and thought leaders.
Step 2: Identify Your Experts
The Delphi technique relies on a panel of experts who provide valuable opinions on a
problem under discussion, contributing their knowledge and expertise to help reach a
consensus.

7. Step 2: Identify Your Experts
A diverse group of 8 experts has been selected, comprising market research
analysts, sales managers, product managers, and marketing specialists..
2 Market Research Analysts
With experience in analyzing market trends, consumer behavior, and
competitive landscape in the mobile phone industry.
2 Sales Managers
With strong background in sales management, distribution channels, and
market penetration strategies specifically within the mobile phone sector.
2 Product Managers
Responsible for developing the mobile phone products, possess expertise in
features & specifications, and pricing strategies that impact market
performance.
2 Marketing Specialists
With expertise in marketing strategies, brand positioning, and customer
segmentation within the mobile phone industry.

8. Step 3: Define the Problem
The problem is what we are trying to understand. The experts need to know what situation
they are commenting on, so ensure you provide a precise and comprehensive definition of
the problem.
Clarity and specificity
Measurable outcomes
Contextual understanding
Clear scope boundaries
Iterative refinement

9. Step 3: Define the Problem
"To accurately estimate the sales targets for the newly introduced mobile
phones in the market for the first year of its release."

10. LAUNCHING OF QUESTIONNAIRES
Ask general questions through a questionnaire or survey to capture experts' views on future events.
Collate and summarize the responses, remove any irrelevant material and look for common viewpoints.
Responses from the experts are collected for estimating sales targets for the newly
introduced smartphone based on factors like market trends, competitive landscape,
pricing strategy, marketing efforts, customer preferences, and target demographics:
Step 4: Round One Questions

11. 1. "Considering the current market trends, We predict strong initial demand for the new
smartphone due to its innovative features and competitive pricing.“
2. "The competitive landscape is intense, but with effective marketing campaigns highlighting the
unique selling points, we can capture a significant market share.“
3. "Pricing strategy will be crucial. A competitive price point combined with attractive financing
options can drive higher sales volume.“
4. "Targeting the younger demographic with a strong emphasis on social media marketing and
influencer collaborations can generate buzz and drive sales.“
5. "Understanding customer preferences is key. Conducting market research to identify and cater
to specific needs and preferences will help in setting realistic sales targets."
Round 1 Responses:

12. Step 5: Round Two Questions
Based on the answers to the first questions, the following questions should delve deeper
into the topic to clarify specific issues in round 2. These questions may also go out in the
form of a questionnaire or survey. Again, collate and summarize the results, removing any
irrelevant material and look for the common ground. Remember, we are seeking to build
consensus.

13. The final questionnaire aims to focus on supporting decision making. Focus on the areas of
agreement. What is it upon which the experts are all agreed?
You may wish to have more than three rounds of questioning to reach a closer consensus.
Step 6: Round Three Questions

14. 1. "Based on the market response and initial pre-orders, we estimate we can achieve approximately
500,000 unit sales in the first year.“
2. "Considering the growth potential and positive market sentiment, aiming for 700,000 unit sales in
the first year seems reasonable.“
3. "Given the competitive landscape and potential challenges, a more conservative estimate of
400,000 unit sales in the first year would be prudent.“
4. "If we execute a robust marketing campaign and exceed customer expectations, reaching 1 million
unit sales in the first year is ambitious but achievable.“
5. "Considering the target demographics and market dynamics, setting a sales target of 600,000 units
in the first year strikes a balance between ambition and realism.“
Round 3 Responses:

15. Step 7: Act on Your Findings
Once the Delphi process concludes, the results are analyzed and used for decision-making,
forecasting, policy development, or any other purpose defined in the study’s objectives.

16. Step 7: Act on Your Findings
After analyzing the responses from Round 2 & 3 and considering the experts' revised
estimates, the consensus among the experts suggests a sales target range of 550,000 to
650,000 units for the first year of the newly introduced smartphone. This range
reflects the expectations, market dynamics, and various factors discussed during the
Delphi technique exercise. The company can use this information to make an informed
decision and set a realistic sales target, taking into account both the ambitious and
conservative estimates provided by the experts.

17. Thank You
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