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11% Federation
4%
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This document summarizes a spatial-temporal analysis of Rift Valley fever (RVF) risk in Kenya. RVF is a mosquito-borne viral disease that affects livestock and humans. The analysis identified factors associated with RVF incidence and persistence by analyzing outbreak data and environmental variables in a geographical information system. Intense precipitation was found to increase RVF incidence, while soil types like solonetz and luvisols supported the persistence of outbreaks. Areas below 2300 meters in elevation and with a history of previous infections were also at higher risk. The models can help map hotspots and refine risk analyses of this economically important disease in East Africa.
11% Federation
4%
The document summarizes global progress in reducing preventable child deaths. It notes that the global under-five mortality rate has fallen 41% from 1990 to 2011. However, sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia still account for the majority of under-five deaths. Half of global under-five deaths in 2010 occurred in just 5 countries: India, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo, Pakistan, and China. While progress has been made in reducing deaths from preventable causes like pneumonia, diarrhea and malaria, more work is still needed to address disparities and strengthen community-based healthcare.
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- Average gross occupancy rates by bedroom type and year completed for properties across Orange County submarkets, ranging from 94.2-97.1% occupancy.
- Average monthly rents by bedroom type for 1st quarter 2011, with total average rents ranging from $1
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Decision support framework for managing Rift Valley fever in the Horn of Africa
1. Decision support framework
for managing Rift Valley fever
in the Horn of Africa
Jeffrey C. Mariner, Bernard Bett and John Gachohi
Presentation at a workshop on Rift Valley fever: Challenge, prevention and control,
Mombasa, Kenya, 13-15 November 2012.
2. Overview
• ILRI RVF Research Program
– Decision Support Framework (DSF)
– RVF Modelling
– RVF Risk Factors
– Economic Scenario Analysis of DSF
• Risk-Based Decision Support Framework
– 2006-2007 Impact Study
– Process and Publication
– Future Directions
2
Overview
3. Risk-Based Decision Support Framework (DSF)
• Participatory Process:
– Risk map
– Matrix of actions matched to
events
• RVF epizootic events list
• Action categories
• Stakeholder built
– Selected information,
resources and references
3
4. RVF Modellng
• A spatial, agent based, stochastic model
• Mechanisms of RVF persistence
• Predict risk, impact of RVF and interventions
5. Risk Factor Analysis
• Descriptive analyses
• Regression models:
– Generalized Linear Mixed models
Poisson model for incidence
Logit models for prevalence
– MCMC/spatial multiple membership model
To account for spatial autocorrelation
6. Risk Factor Analysis - predictors
Variable Source Description
Livelihood zones FEWSNET Livelihood practices as at 2006
Land cover FAO on-line Global land cover data, 2000
database
Precipitation ECMWF Monthly minimum, maximum and
average for the period: 1979 - 2010
NDVI Spot Vegetation Monthly average, minimum,
maximum values from: 1999 - 2010
Human population Kenya National Human and household census for
Bureau of 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 1999
Statistics
Elevation CSI SRTM
Soil types FAO FAO’s Harmonized World Soil
Database (HWSD), 2009
Wetlands (area as % of ILRI GIS Unit
total)
Parks/reserves (area as ILRI GIS Unit
%)
7. Risk Factors Temporal distribution of RVF outbreaks:
Divisions that have had RVF 1979 - 2010
outbreaks 18%
8% 0.18
in Kenya between 1912 and 2010 16%
7% 0.16
Proportion of divisions affected
14% 0.14
6%
0.12
5%
0.1
4%
0.08
3%
0.06
2%
0.04
1% 0.02
0% 0
Month
505 divisions -1999 population census
20.2 % (n = 102) of the divisions have
had an outbreak at least once
Mean outbreak interval : 5.4 (4.4 – 6.4)
years
8. Models for the persistence of outbreaks
Multi-level Poisson model MCMC/Bayesian model
Variable Level β SE β SE
Fixed effects
Constant -3.74 0.69 -6.18 0.92
Precipitation 0.11 0.03 0.16 0.04
NDVI 2.68 0.80 3.29 0.83
Soil types Solonetz 1.34 0.49 1.64 0.62
Luvisols 1.24 0.45 1.80 0.59
Elevation < 2300 m 0.00 - 0.00 -
> 2300 m -2.99 0.64 -3.79 0.95
Random effects
Livelihood zones 3.16 0.61 9.37 3.02
Deviance 841.57
9. Sandik Case Definition:
RVF Compatible Event
• Abortion
• Heavy rains and mosquitoes
• Froth from the nose, often with epistaxis
• Salivation
• Fever
• Death, particularly in young animals
An outbreak in sheep and goats involving abortions during periods of
heavy rain and abundance of mosquitoes, with two or more other
listed clinical symptoms being observed in the herd, should be
reported as RVF compatible disease to public health authorities.
Cattle in the same area will be affected with similar but less severe
symptoms, and rarely camels.
10. Average Timeline
Average time from:
•Onset of rains to mosquito swarm: 33.1 days
•Mosquito swarm to first animal case: 19.2 days
•First animal case to first human case: 21 days
•First humane case to medical service intervention: 35.6 days
•First medical service intervention to first veterinary intervention: 12.3 days
•First animal case to veterinary service intervention: 68.9 days
Risk Factors Cases Response
Rains Vectors Livestock Human Human Vet
33.1 days 19.2 days 21 days 35.6 days 12.3 days
11. So why was the
response so late?
• All or nothing decision
• Waiting for perfect
information
• Risk avoidance
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12. Optimal Decision-Making
• Recognizes
– The need to balance the need information
against the need for a timely response
– That information will be imperfect
– That decision making involves taking risk
• How can we make decision-making less
risky
– Phased
– Shared
Lessons 12
Learnt
13. Decision Points
• Early warning or alerts
• Localized heavy rains
observed
• Localized flooding reported
• Mosquito swarms
• Livestock disease
• Laboratory confirmation
• Human disease
• Laboratory confirmation
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14. Progressive Risk Mitigation
• Consequence x
probability of outcome
• Probability increases at Phased Decision-Making
Probablity of Outcome
each decision point
1. 2
1
•
0. 8
Justification for 0. 6
0. 4
investment in risk 0. 2
0
mitigation increases 0 1 2 3
Decision Points
4 5
• Risk of making the
wrong decision
decreases
14
17. Tool vs Framework
• Original name caused confusion
– Informative dialogue
• Modellers assumed it was model
– Efforts to ‘fix’ the tool
– The tool itself should output the decision
• Strength of the ‘framework’
– Created and owned by decision-makers
– Models can inform the discussion, but
not drive the process
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18. The Future
DSF managing risk in trade
• Transparent framework for managing
RVF
• Market events and interventions
• Regional meeting in Dubai
– Horn of Africa, Middle East, OIE
– regional framework for trade
– extend to other disease.
– Current Application
• Kenya and Tanzania
• Development partnerships?
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