GSFS_XTM_May2015

1. Foresight scenarios to inform
CGIAR planning
Keith Wiebe
GFSF Extended Team Meeting
Rome, 25 – 28 May 2015

2. Scenarios
• Baseline
• Changes in population, income, policy
• Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
• Changes in climate
• Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
• Draw on work with AgMIP

3. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Source: O’Neill et al., 2014

4. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Population, GDP and agricultural productivity assumptions by SSP (annual
percentage change, 2010 – 2050)
Source: IIASA, OECD, work in progress by IFPRI, PIK, USDA-ERS, LEI-WUR, GTAP/Purdue, FAO, IDS

5. Source: IPCC AR5 WG2 SPM, Figure 4(B), 31Mar2014
Global annual average surface temperature
Representative Concentration
Pathways

6. Baseline results for SSP1, 2 and 3
Baseline increases in global yields, area, production, consumption, exports, imports and prices
of coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar in 2050 (% change relative to 2005 values)
Source: Work in progress by IFPRI, PIK, USDA-ERS, LEI-WUR, GTAP/Purdue, FAO, IDS

7. Climate change impacts in 2050
Climate change impacts on global yields, area, production, consumption, exports, imports and prices
of coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar in 2050 (% change relative to 2050 baseline values)
Source: Work in progress by IFPRI, PIK, USDA-ERS, LEI-WUR, GTAP/Purdue, FAO, IDS

8. Climate change impacts and trade
Source: Work in progress by IFPRI, PIK, USDA-ERS, LEI-WUR, GTAP/Purdue, FAO, IDS
Impacts of climate change and trade policy on yields, area, production, exports and prices of five commodities, (%
deviation from baseline values in 2050 without climate change)
SSP1, RCP4.5 SSP3, RCP8.5

9. Scenarios
• Baseline
• Changes in population, income, policy
• Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
• Changes in climate
• Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
• Draw on work with AgMIP
• Alternative
• Broadly reflective of alternative CRP portfolios
• Different geographic emphases?
• Different commodity group emphases?
• Other criteria?
• How many?

10. All scenarios are wrong,
but some of them are useful