Danube-Black Sea Regional Projects – Catalysts for Nutrient Reduction (Zavadsky)
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Experiences with Setting Targets, Measuring Compliance and Results, and Scaling up Achievements in Nutrient Reduction Presented at the Black Sea – Danube Regional Conference on Nutrient Pollution Control in Chisinau, Moldova – October 2006
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Danube-Black Sea Regional Projects – Catalysts for Nutrient Reduction (Zavadsky)
- 1. Danube-Black Sea Regional Projects – Catalysts for Nutrient Reduction Experiences with Setting Targets, Measuring Compliance and Results, and Scaling up Achievements in Nutrient Reduction Regional Conference on Nutrient Pollution Control in the Danube-Black Sea Basin, Moldova, 4-6 October 2006 Ivan Zavadsky, UNDP/GEF Regional Programme Director Danube/ Black Sea
- 2. Regional Conference on Nutrient 2 COOPERATION FOR POLLUTION CONTROL IN THE DANUBE – BLACK SEA REGION » GEF Support: GEF Danube – Black Sea Strategic Partnership and TDA/SAP Process (1991 - 2007) » Danube Convention and the ICPDR (1994/1998) » Black Sea Convention – BSC (1992/1994) » EU Water Framework Directive and other EU Directives, EU Marine Strategy(2000) » DABLAS Task Force (2001) » ICPDR/BSC Memorandum of Understanding (2001)
- 3. Regional Conference on Nutrient 3 GEF Danube – Black Sea Strategic Partnership Objectives Indicator Success Adopting and implementing of new policies 100% Implementing investment projects 100% Capacity building of Secretariats 75% Adopting of legal mechanisms 50 – 75% Reinforcing international cooperation 75% Implementing pilot projects 50%
- 4. Regional Conference on Nutrient 4 INDICATORS » Process » Strengthening Institutions » Policy / Legal » Stress Reduction » Nutrient Reduction – investments / achievements » BAPs » Status » N/P loads » DO in Black Sea » Ecological status
- 5. Regional Conference on Nutrient 5 PROCESS INDICATORS » Institutional Strengthening » ICPDR / BSC » DEF / Black Sea NGO Forum » Policy / legal
- 6. Regional Conference on Nutrient 6 Explicitly formulated policy objectives for water management and pollution control 0 1 2 3 4 5 D AT CZ SK HU SI HR BiH SM BG RO MD UA Explicitly formulated policy objectives for water management and pollution control, 1 - insufficient, 2 - Limited, 3 - satisfactory, 4 - appropriate / complete Programmes especially dealing with water management and pollution control D AT CZ SK HU SI HR BiH SM BG RO MD UA Action Programmes / National Environmental Plans Specific Programmes for Sectors Other Programmes Programmes dealing with EU WFD Implementation D AT CZ SK HU SI HR BiH SM BG RO MD UA Strategy for WFD Implementation State Environmental Policy Harmonization with WFD Expected / New law Status of Water-Related Policy, Programmes and Action Plans in the Danube Countries
- 7. Regional Conference on Nutrient 7 STRESS REDUCTION Targets » Danube: » 22% reduction in P emissions and 33% reduction in N emissions by 2005 cf 1996 baseline level. » BS TDA: » To avoid exceeding nutrient loads of 1997; » To reduce nutrients loads allowing Black Sea ecosystems to recover to conditions similar to those observed in the 1960s.
- 8. Regional Conference on Nutrient 8 STRESS REDUCTION Considerations in target-setting » Point vs. diffuse sources of nutrients; » Groundwater contribution to nutrient budget (47% of Danube input is GW-derived); » Recent historical changes in nutrient inputs and outputs – law of diminishing returns! » Internal loading of nutrients; » Economic influences on nutrient management (e.g. agricultural practices).
- 9. Regional Conference on Nutrient 9 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 1960 1970 1988 1997 2003 TotalN(tonne). 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 1960 1970 1988 1997 2003 TotalP(tonne).0 40,000 80,000 1960 1970 1988 1997 2003 TotalN(tonne). 0 30,000 60,000 1960 1970 1988 1997 2003 TotalP(tonne). Romania Bulgaria N P STRESS REDUCTION Livestock manure
- 10. Regional Conference on Nutrient 10 SUMMARY OF REDUCTIONS Nutrient Removal, t/a Timeframe No. of Projects Total Investment MUSD N P Completed by Dec 2003 56 803 5,351 1,013 Completed in 2004 and 2005 35 475 4,552 836 Completed after 2005 (full financed) 106 1440 >10,013 >1,839 World Bank-GEF NRIF (implem., prep, pipeline) 14 576 5,936 443 TOTAL 211 3,294 >25,852 >4,131 Context: Emissions estimated 700kt/a (N); 70kt/a (P) Load estimate 410 kt/a (N); 12 kt/a (P)
- 11. Regional Conference on Nutrient 11 0 200 400 600 800 1948-1959 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 DIN(kt/y). DIN (Q corr.) kt/y DIN kt/y Almazow linear trend 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1948-1959 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 DIN(kt/y). 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 Flow(m 3 /s) DIN kt/y TNMN/Buch.Decl. DIN kt/y Almazow Danube discharge m3 linear trend 0 20 40 60 80 100 1948-1959 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 TotalP(kt/y). 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 Flow(m 3 /s). P kt/y TNMN/Buch.Decl. P kt/y Almazow Danube discharge m3 linear trend 0 20 40 60 80 1948-1959 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 TotalP(kt/y). Total P (Q corr.) kt/y Total P kt/y Almazow Actual loads Flow – corrected loads Inorganic N Total P STATUS INDICATORS Danube loads to Black Sea
- 12. Regional Conference on Nutrient 12 0 3 6 9 1960s 1983- 1990 1991- 2000 2001- 2005 Biomass(g/m 3 ) 0 20 40 60 1960s 1988 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 NumberofTaxasec 2 3 4 5 966 972 980 986 996 002 log10abundance(number/l). 1967-2005 data set 1997-2005 data set Linear (1967-2005 data set) Linear (1997-2005 data set) Phytoplankton Zoobenthos Zooplankton ? Phyllophora/Fisheries STATUS INDICATORS Ecological status of Black Sea
- 13. Regional Conference on Nutrient 13 LESSONS LEARNED (1) » Robust decisions are based on good information. » Public perception and/or alternative drivers are critical to ensuring success. » Present sensible targets: challenging, but not over-ambitious. Timing is crucial. » Not the only player in town; co-operation is the lifeblood of success.
- 14. Regional Conference on Nutrient 14 14% 19% 46% 6% 14% 1% 46% felt it was “only occasionally polluted in certain places” A third of people thought it was either completely dead (14%) or the most polluted Sea in Europe (19%). Only 6% of respondents felt it is healthier than it used to be. Do you think the Black Sea is healthy? PUBLIC PERCEPTION
- 15. Regional Conference on Nutrient 15 LESSONS LEARNED (2) » Source apportionment studies are invaluable, but the same methodology must be used by all participants. » Over a short-intermediate timescale, P export is easier to tackle than N export. » Point source nutrient emissions are “easier” to tackle than diffuse source emissions. » Regional improvements in P export are due primarily to the end of state-subsidies.
- 16. Regional Conference on Nutrient 16 GOOD MONITORING DATA (1) » Collation of existing data; » Supply of monitoring equipment; » Regional workshops on methods development and production of standardised methods manuals; » Pilot monitoring exercises to test manuals.
- 17. Regional Conference on Nutrient 17 GOOD MONITORING DATA (2) » Analytical proficiency testing exercises; » Research cruises to: » Improve understanding of the eutrophication process; » Fill-in gaps left by national / international monitoring programmes; » Support the scientific community.
- 18. Regional Conference on Nutrient 18 ACHIEVEMENTS » Institutional » Co-operation EC/GEF » SAP developed » ICPDR funded and functional » DEF strengthened » Danube Analysis » BSC/ICPDR JTWG
- 19. Regional Conference on Nutrient 19 ACHIEVEMENTS » Environment » Reduced nutrients – upper Danube » Reduced P discharges from Danube » Reduced anoxic conditions NW Black Sea » Increased zoobenthos diversity NW Black Sea
- 20. Regional Conference on Nutrient 20 FUTURE CHALLENGES » Achieving / maintaining mid-1990s nutrient levels – and more! » Agriculture and CAP reform » N reduction » Improving data
- 21. Regional Conference on Nutrient 21 TRANSFERABLE LESSONS » For IRBM to succeed: » Political will – countries collaborate » Legal framework - convention » Strong institution – e.g. ICPDR » Long-term support – e.g. UNDP/GEF projects
Editor's Notes
- <number> The UNDP Global Environment Facility and the EU through its Phare and Tacis programs, have provided since 1992 in the frame of the Danube Environmental Programme and Pollution Reduction Programme, international assistance to develop appropriate mechanisms and planning tools for the implementation of the Danube River Protection Convention and to prepare for funding pollution prevention & reduction activities required to both restore the Danube River Basin and to protect the Black Sea environment. In this frame, from 1992 to 2000, donor investments can be estimated at about 27million USD for the EU Phare and Tacis Programs and about 12.4 million USD for the UNDP/GEF assistance. This facilitated the building up of capacities and structures of the ICPDR for joint operation under the Convention. Building on achievements of previous projects, a new UNDP/GEF Danube Regional Project was prepared in the frame of the Danube – Black Sea Strategic Partnership, in order to further reinforce implementation of nutrient reduction measures and policy reforms in the Danube Basin Countries. The recent DRP, launched in December 2001 is planned for period of 5 years, with total budget of 17.240 mill. USD. GEF Support in the DRB 1991 - Environmental Programme for the Danuber River Basin (EPDRB) – GEF Institutional Development Project 1994/98 Danube River Protection Convention (1994) Danube Pollution Reduction Programme 1997-1999 (EPDRB phase 2) – TDA & SAP Black Sea Strategic Partnership 2001 – 2007
- <number> Danube countries face substantial challenges in establishing and strengthening the policy and institutional framework required for functioning market-based and democratic societies. Today, progress can be reported with all Danube countries in redesigning policies, programs and regulations, in establishing appropriate incentive structures, redefining partnerships with stakeholders, and strengthening financial sustainability of environmental services. Following a challenging and demanding period of transition, all DRB countries have in the last years developed a comprehensive hierarchic system of short, medium and long-term environmental policy objectives, strategies and principles which reflect the political context of each country, key country-specific environmental problems and the sector priorities on national and regional levels. Still the key challenge Danube countries face in the policy field is to identify the most effective ways of transposing EU environmental directives. Country’s choice on how to achieve compliance with EU directives will have a significant influence on compliance costs.
- BS TDA – more for entire GEF Strategic Partnership than for UNDP/GEF BSERP
- Recent historical changes in nutrient inputs and outputs – (i) economic collapse in early 90’s; (ii) see also slide on total P reduction law of diminishing returns! – increased investment after reaching certain point does not respond in reduced pollution Internal loading of nutrients – cumulative effect of past pollution and re-suspension from sediments
- Correlates with the slide on total P decrease
- Phytoplankton – improvement Zooplankton – (i) improvement, too; (ii) influence of invasive species Meniopsys, jelly comb Zoobenthos – improvement Phyllophora - ?size of fields; ?health status; Fisheries – availability and comparability of data
- Optional – depends on time!