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ATABAD LANDSLIDE
In the name of Allah the Most Gracious the Most Merciful
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
DAM BREAK STUDY
OF
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
MARCH 2010
National Engineering Services Pakistan (Pvt.) Ltd.
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
THE DAM BREAK ANALYSIS HAS BEEN
CARRIED OUT BY NESPAK TO ANSWER THE
FOLLOWING QUESTIONS;
1. WHAT IS THE LOCATION & COMPOSITION OF LANDSLIDE?
2. WHAT IS THE CAPACITY OF LAKE THAT HAS BEEN FORMED?
3. WHEN THE LAKE WOULD OVERTOP THE LANDSLIDE MASS?
4. WHAT WOULD BE THE PEAK FLOOD DISCHARGE AT
VARIOUS LOCATIONS ALONG HUNZA RIVER DOWNSTREAM
OF LANDSLIDE?
5. WHAT WOULD BE THE DEPTH AND VELOCITY OF WATER AT
VARIOUS LOCATIONS?
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
THE DAM BREAK ANALYSIS HAS BEEN CARRIED
OUT BY NESPAK TO ANSWER THE FOLLOWING
QUESTIONS (CONTD….);
6. HOW MUCH IS THE WARNING TIME FOR VARIOUS
VILLAGES/GILGIT CITY ?
7. WHAT ARE THE AREAS THAT WOULD BE AFFECTED IN CASE
OF DAM FAILURE ?
8. UPTO WHICH LOCATION ON THE RIVER THE DAMBREAK
FLOOD WAVE WOULD BE HIGHLY DESTRUCTIVE?
9. WHAT ARE THE MAJOR AND IMMEDIATE STEPS/ DECISIONS
REQUIRED AT THIS STAGE?
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
THE KEY PROFESSIONALS INVOLVED IN THIS
ANALYSIS ARE;
Dr. TAHIR HAYAT VICE PRESIDENT (GT&GE)
MIRZA ASIF BAIG GENERAL MANAGER
(WRD)
Dr. MANSOOR HASHMI GENERAL MANAGER
(WRD)
Engr. SHAHRUKH LATIF CHIEF ENGINEER (WRD)
Engr. YASIR ABBAS SENIOR ENGINEER (WRD)
Mr. ADIL LATIF GIS/RS-ANALYST
Mr. MUHAMMAD AKRAM SURVEYOR
Mr. RAZZAQ AHMAD DRAFTSMAN
AND SUPPORTING STAFF
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
LOCATION MAP
Gilgit
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
SATELLITE MAP OF
LANDSLIDE AREA
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
GEOLOGICAL MAP OF
LANDSLIDE AREA
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
 FIVE SOIL AND ONE ROCK (GRAVEL) SAMPLE WAS
COLLECTED FROM THE LANDSLIDE DAM SITE.
 THREE SAMPLES OF THE DUST WERE COLLECTED AS
SAMPLE 1, 2 AND 3, WHILE TWO SAMPLES OF THE BLACK
CLAY WERE COLLECTED AND LABELED AS SAMPLE 4 AND 5.
 THESE SAMPLES WERE SUBJECTED TO LABORATORY
TESTS.
 THE RESULTS OF LABORATORY TESTS SHOW THAT THE
DUST SAMPLES ARE VERY FINE ROCK FLOUR AS THEY
SHOW 30% TO 80% MATERIAL PASSING NO. 200 SIEVE YET
THESE HAVE NO PLASTICITY.
SOIL AND ROCK SAMPLES
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
THUS THE VISUAL OBSERVATIONS AT THE SITE ARE
CONFIRMED THAT THE BLACK SOIL HAS ORGANIC CONTENT AND
IT IS VERY FINE AND PLASTIC. ON THE OTHER HAND THE DUST
AT SITE IS ALSO VERY FINE BUT NON-PLASTIC.
SOIL AND ROCK SAMPLES
 THE BLACK SOIL SAMPLES (SAMPLE 4 AND 5) INDICATE A
VERY FINE SOIL WITH ALMOST 100% PASSING NO. 200 SIEVE
IN BOTH CASES AND HAVING LL OF 28% AND PL RANGING
FROM 21% TO 22%.
 THE ORGANIC MATTER CONTENT IS 0.95% AND 1.10% FOR
THE TWO BLACK CLAY SAMPLES, PEGMATITE AND APALITE.
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
SOIL AND ROCK SAMPLES
 THE GRAVEL SAMPLES COLLECTED FORM THE SITE
INDICATE THAT THESE ARE GANODIORATIC ROCKS WITH
INTRUSION OF GRANITE, PEGMATITE AND APALITE.
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
A VIEW OF SLUSH MATERIAL PRESENT IN THE UPSTREAM AREA.
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
A VIEW OF NARROW UPSTREAM VALLEY.
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
A DISTANT VIEW OF WIDE VALLEY NEAR GULMIT.
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
A VIEW OF SHISHKAT BRIDGE. NOTE THE EXPANDING LAKE WATER LEVEL TOUCHING
THE FOUNDATIONS.
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
SOURCE INFORMATION
 CONTOUR SURVEY OF LANDSLIDE MASS
 SPOT-5 SATELLITE IMAGERY DATA (LANDSLIDE AREA ONLY)
 ASTER DATA (30 M RESOLUTION)
 SURVEY OF PAKISTAN (SOP), G.T SHEETS
 DAILY FLOW AND INSTANTANEOUS PEAK FLOW DATA AT
 HUNZA RIVER AT DANIYOR BRIDGE (1962-ONWARDS)
 GILGIT RIVER AT GILGIT (1962-ONWARDS)
 INDUS RIVER AT PARTAB BRIDGE (1960-ONWARDS)
 INDUS RIVER AT SHATIAL BRIDGE (1984-ONWARDS)
 INDUS RIVER AT BESHAM (1960-ONWARDS)
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
SOURCE INFORMATION
CROSS SECTIONAL SURVEY
 TOTAL = 140 CROSS SECTIONS
 HUNZA RIVER = 128 CROSS-SECTIONS
 GILGIT RIVER = 12 CROSS-SECTIONS
 CROSS SECTIONS EXTRACTED FROM ASTER DATA
 FROM GILGIT TO BESHAM
 TOTAL = 90 CROSS SECTIONS AT EVERY 3 KM
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
TOPOGRAPHIC SURVEY OF LANDSLIDE
FLOW PATH
Section
Across Dam
Legend
L-Section
X-Section
Elevation
High : 2500
Low : 2312
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
LONGITUDINAL SECTION OF LANDSLIDE ALONG POSSIBLE
FLOW PATH
Flow
Direction
ATABAD LANDSLIDE ANALYSIS OF G.T SHEET, ASTER DEM & RIVER SURVEY
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
ELEVATION CAPACITY CURVE OF LAKE
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
ELEVATION CAPACITY CURVE OF LAKE
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
ELEVATION CAPACITY CURVE OF LAKE
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
SCENARIO ANALYSED
DAM BREAK STUDY HAS BEEN CARRIED OUT FOR TWO CONDITIONS
1. FOR 18m CUT ( ALREADY ACHIEVED)
2. FOR 30m CUT (MAY BE ACHIEVED BEFORE OVERTOPPING)
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE FLOWS AT
LANDSLIDE LOCATION
254
232
218
502
1509
5061
9841
4267
1326
658
486
10091
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Flow(ft3
/s)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Flow(m3
/s)
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
OBSERVED MONTHLY AVERAGE FLOWS AT
DANIYOR, GILGIT AND PARTAB BRIDGE
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Flow(m3
/s)
0
50
100
150
200
Flowx1000(ft3
/s)
Hunza River at Daniyor Gilgit river at Alam Bridge Indus River at Partab/Bunji
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
ESTIMATED TIME TO OVERTOP
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
ESTIMATED TIME TO OVERTOP
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
ESTIMATED TIME TO OVERTOP
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
 HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING CENTRE’S RIVER ANALYSIS SYSTEM (HEC-
RAS) VER-4.0 HAS BEEN USED IN THIS DAM BREAK STUDIES
 HEC-RAS IS A ONE-DIMENSIONAL HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL DEVELOPED
BY U.S ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS
 HEC-RAS CAN MODEL BOTH OVERTOPPING AND PIPING FAILURE OF
EARTHEN DAMS
 THE RESULTING FLOOD WAVE IS ROUTED DOWNSTREAM USING
UNSTEADY FLOW EQUATIONS
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
ESTIMATION OF BREACH PARAMETERS
 THE BREACH PARAMETERS INCLUDE
 TIME TO BREACH
 BOTTOM WIDTH OF BREACHED SECTION
 BOTTOM ELEVATION OF BREACHED SECTION
 SIDE SLOPES AT BREACHED SECTION
 BREACH WEIR COEFFICIENT
200 400 600
Latest Cross sections70_1_n = 0.1 Plan: 70 3/16/2010
RS = 100100 IS
.1
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
ESTIMATION OF BREACH PARAMETERS
 BOTTOM WIDTH OF BREACHED SECTION HAS BEEN ESTIMATED AS 190 M
 BOTTOM ELEVATION OF BREACHED SECTION HAS BEEN ESTIMATED AS
2300 M
 LEFT AND RIGHT SIDE SLOPES HAS BEEN ESTIMATED AS 1 VER. : 1 HOR.
 BREACH WEIR COEFFICIENT HAS BEEN ESTIMATED AS 2.6
 VARIOUS TIME TO BREACH HAS BEEN ANALYZED RANGING FROM 1
HOUR TO 24 HOUR
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
ESTIMATION OF BREACH PARAMETERS
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
OUTFLOW FLOOD HYDROGRAPH
 THE FLOOD HYDROGRAPH AS A RESULT OF RELEASE OF ALL LAKE
CONTENTS
2300 2400 0100 0200 0300 0400
30Dec2009 31Dec2009
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
Plan: 70 River: Hunza Reach: 1 RS: 101935.7
Time
Flow(m3/s)
Legend
Flow
3,319,578 ft3/s
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
SUMMARY OF SCENARIO ANALYSED
SCENARIO ID TIME TO BREACH DESCRIPTION
18-1 1 hour
Cut Depth = 18 m
Overtopping Level =2398 m
Dam Height = 108 m
Lake Volume = 195 MCM
18-3 3 hour
18-6 6 hour
18-24 24 hour
30-1 1 hour
Cut Depth = 30 m
Overtopping Level =2386 m
Dam Height = 96 m
Lake Volume = 133 MCM
30-3 3 hour
30-6 6 hour
30-24 24 hour
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
Lake
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
RIVER SCHEMATISATION
LAKE
LANDSLIDE
HUNZA RIVER
River Reach Length = 100 km
from landslide location to
confluence with Gilgit River
Confluence with Gilgit
River
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
Latest Cross sections70_1_n = 0.1 Plan: 70 3/16/2010
Main Channel Distance (m)
Elevation(m)
Legend
EG 29DEC2009 2400
WS 29DEC2009 2400
Crit 29DEC2009 2400
Ground
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
RIVER BED PROFILE
LAKE
LANDSLIDE
HUNZA RIVER
Reach Length = 100 km
Slope of River = 0.009
(900 meters drop in 100 km)
Confluence with Gilgit
River
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION
LAKE
LANDSLIDE
Confluence with Gilgit
River
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
Latest Cross sections70_1_n = 0.1 Plan: 70 3/17/2010
Main Channel Distance (m)
Elevation(m)
Legend
EG MaxWS
WS MaxWS
Crit MaxWS
Ground
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
MAXIMUM WATER SURFACE ALONG THE RIVER
LAKE
LANDSLIDE
Confluence with Gilgit
River
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
MAX WATER COMPUTATIONS
COMPUTATIONSSCHEMATISATION
SUMAIR
KARIMABAD
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
0 100 200 300 400 500
2060
2080
2100
2120
2140
2160
2180
1 hour breach@2398 Plan: 70 3/23/2010
RS = 84943.89
Station (m)
Elevation(m)
Legend
EG 30DEC2009 0006
WS 30DEC2009 0006
Ground
Bank Sta
MAX WATER COMPUTATIONS
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
0 100 200 300 400 500
2060
2080
2100
2120
2140
2160
2180
1 hour breach@2398 Plan: 70 3/23/2010
RS = 84943.89
Station (m)
Elevation(m)
Legend
EG Max WS
WS MaxWS
Ground
Bank Sta
Max
Depth
=35m
Depth
above
Left
Bank
=22m
Depth
above
Right
Bank
=28m
MAX WATER COMPUTATIONS
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
MAX WATER COMPUTATIONS
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
1540
1560
1580
1600
1620
1640
1660
1 hour breach@2398 Plan: 70 3/23/2010
RS = 25125.99
Station (m)
Elevation(m)
Legend
EG 30DEC2009 0006
WS 30DEC2009 0006
Ground
Bank Sta
MAX WATER COMPUTATIONS
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
1540
1560
1580
1600
1620
1640
1660
1 hour breach@2398 Plan: 70 3/23/2010
RS = 25125.99
Station (m)
Elevation(m)
Legend
EG Max WS
WS MaxWS
Ground
Bank Sta
MAX WATER COMPUTATIONS
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
Overtoping at El. 2398m, Dam height 108m
1 hour Breach
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
21:36
22:48
00:00
01:12
02:24
03:36
04:48
06:00
07:12
08:24
09:36
10:48
12:00
Flow(m
3
/s)
Just Downstream Landslide At Confluence with Gilgit
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION
SCENARIO-18-1
Time From Start of Breach to Arrival
of Peak at Gilgit Confluence
= 4.5 hrs
3,248,950 ft3/s
706,000ft3/s
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
Overtoping at El. 2398m, Dam height 108m
3 hour Breach
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
21:36
22:48
00:00
01:12
02:24
03:36
04:48
06:00
07:12
08:24
09:36
10:48
12:00
Flow(m
3
/s)
Just Downstream Landslide At Confluence with Gilgit
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION
SCENARIO-18-3
Time From Start of Breach to Arrival
of Peak at Gilgit Confluence
=5.25hrs
1,447,900 ft3/s
671,000 ft3/s
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
Overtoping at El. 2398m, Dam height 108m
6 hour Breach
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
21:36
22:48
00:00
01:12
02:24
03:36
04:48
06:00
07:12
08:24
09:36
10:48
12:00
Flow(m
3
/s)
Just Downstream Landslide At Confluence with Gilgit
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION
SCENARIO-18-6
Time From Start of Breach to Arrival
of Peak at Gilgit Confluence
= 6.5 hrs
812,000 ft3/s
600,000 ft3/s
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
Overtoping at El. 2398m, Dam height 108m
24 hour Breach
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
21:36
22:48
00:00
01:12
02:24
03:36
04:48
06:00
07:12
08:24
09:36
10:48
12:00
13:12
14:24
15:36
16:48
18:00
19:12
20:24
21:36
Flow(m
3
/s)
Just Downstream Landslide At Confluence with Gilgit
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION
SCENARIO-18-24
Time From Start of Breach to Arrival
of Peak at Gilgit Confluence
= 11 hrs247,000 ft3/s 212,000 ft3/s
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
FLOOD WAVE JUST DOWNSTREAM OF LANDSLIDE
SUMMARY OF SCENARIO 18-1, 18-3, 18-6 & 18-24
Overtoping at El. 2398m, Dam height 108m
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
21:36
22:48
00:00
01:12
02:24
03:36
04:48
06:00
07:12
08:24
09:36
10:48
12:00
Flow(m3
/s)
1 hour Breach 3 hour Breach 6 hour Breach 24 hour Breach
3,248,950 ft3/s
1,447,900 ft3/s
812,000 ft3/s
247,000 ft3/s
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
Overtoping at El. 2386m, Dam height 96m
1 hour Breach
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
21:36
22:48
00:00
01:12
02:24
03:36
04:48
06:00
07:12
08:24
09:36
10:48
12:00
Flow(m
3
/s)
Just Downstream Landslide At Confluence with Gilgit
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION
SCENARIO-30-1
Time From Start of Breach to Arrival
of Peak at Gilgit Confluence
= 5.25 hrs2,684,000 ft3/s
635,600 ft3/s
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
Overtoping at El. 2386m, Dam height 96m
3 hour Breach
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
21:36
22:48
00:00
01:12
02:24
03:36
04:48
06:00
07:12
08:24
09:36
10:48
12:00
Flow(m
3
/s)
Just Downstream Landslide At Confluence with Gilgit
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION
SCENARIO-30-3
Time From Start of Breach to Arrival
of Peak at Gilgit Confluence
= 6 hrs
1,025,000 ft3/s
530,000 ft3/s
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
Overtoping at El. 2386m, Dam height 96m
6 hour Breach
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
21:36
22:48
00:00
01:12
02:24
03:36
04:48
06:00
07:12
08:24
09:36
10:48
12:00
Flow(m
3
/s)
Just Downstream Landslide At Confluence with Gilgit
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION
SCENARIO-30-6
Time From Start of Breach to Arrival
of Peak at Gilgit Confluence
= 7.5 hrs565,000 ft3/s
388,000 ft3/s
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
Overtoping at El. 2386m, Dam height 96m
24 hour Breach
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
21:36
22:48
00:00
01:12
02:24
03:36
04:48
06:00
07:12
08:24
09:36
10:48
12:00
13:12
14:24
15:36
16:48
18:00
19:12
20:24
21:36
Flow(m
3
/s)
Just Downstream Landslide At Confluence with Gilgit
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION
SCENARIO-30-24
Time From Start of Breach to Arrival
of Peak at Gilgit Confluence
= 12.5 hrs
177,000 ft3/s
172,000 ft3/s
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
FLOOD WAVE JUST DOWNSTREAM OF LANDSLIDE
SUMMARY OF SCENARIO 30-1, 30-3, 30-6 & 30-24
Overtoping at El. 2386m, Dam height 96m
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
21:36
22:48
00:00
01:12
02:24
03:36
04:48
06:00
07:12
08:24
09:36
10:48
12:00
Flow(m3
/s)
1 hour Breach 3 hour Breach 6 hour Breach 24 hour Breach
2,684,000 ft3/s
1,025,000t3/s
565,000 t3/s
177,000 t3/s
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
FLOOD PEAK ARRIVAL TIME
FOR VARIOUS SCENARIOS
Scenario
Time from Start of Breach
to
Peak Reaching Gilgit Confluence
(hours)
18-1 4.50
18-3 5.25
18-6 6.50
18-24 11.0
30-1 5.25
30-3 6.00
30-6 7.50
30-24 12.50
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
FLOOD PEAK COMAPARISON FOR VARIOUS
SCENARIOS
Scenario
Peak Flow at
Landslide
Peak flow
reaching Gilgit
Confluence
Max. Water
Depth at
Landslide
Max. water
depth reaching
Gilgit
Confluence
(m3/s) (m3/s) (m) (m)
18-1 92,000 20,000 52 15
18-3 41,000 19,000 24 15
18-6 23,000 17,000 19 14
18-24 7,000 6,000 11 9
30-1 76,000 18,000 33 14
30-3 29,000 15,000 21 13
30-6 16,000 11,000 16 12
30-24 5,000 5,000 9 8
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
MAX DEPTH, VELOCITY AND TIME TO MAX DISCHARGE
ALONG HUNZA RIVER (18-1 SCENARIO)
Village
Max Depth
above river Bed
(m)
Max velocity
(m/s)
Time of
maximum
Discharge
Ahmedabad 47.2 10.6 30 min
Faisabad 49.4 11.2 40 min
Atit 52.0 12.7 55 min
Karimabad 40.4 8.6 1 hour
Aliabad, Sumair 46.4 7.5 1 hour 15 min
Murtazabad 50.6 10.3 1 hour 30 min
Toshot 46.0 9.4 1 hour 40 min
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
MAX DEPTH, VELOCITY AND TIME TO MAX DISCHARGE
ALONG HUNZA RIVER (18-1 SCENARIO) (Cont..)
Village
Max Depth
above river Bed
(m)
Max velocity
(m/s)
Time of
maximum
Discharge
Miacher 40.0 13.5 1 hour 50 min
Minapin Nagar ,
Pisan
37.3 11.0 1 hour 55 min
Kahnabad, Thole
nagar
48.8 5.8 2 hours 5 min
Nilt Nagar 48.8 5.8 2 hours 5 min
Jafarabad 48.8 5.8 2 hours 5 min
Sikandarabad 48.8 5.8 2 hours 5 min
Chalt 30.5 6.3 2 hours 25 min
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
MAX DEPTH, VELOCITY AND TIME TO MAX DISCHARGE
ALONG HUNZA RIVER (18-1 SCENARIO) (Cont..)
Village
Max Depth
above river Bed
(m)
Max velocity
(m/s)
Time of
maximum
Discharge
Jaglot 22.6 8.4 3 hours 30 min
Nomal 15.8 5.1 3 hours 50 min
Danyor 15.0 11.1 4 hours 15 min
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
HISTORIC OBSERVED INSTANTANEOUS FLOOD PEAKS
HUNZA RIVER AT DANIYOR
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Flow(m3
/s)
Flood Peak in 18-1 Scenario
Flood Peak in 30-1 Scenario
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
HISTORIC OBSERVED INSTANTANEOUS FLOOD PEAKS
HUNZA RIVER AT DANIYOR
Scenario
Peak flow reaching
Gilgit Confluence
(m3/s)
Compared with
Historic Peak at
Daniyor Bridge
Danger level
18-1 20,000 3.8 times Exceptionally High
18-3 19,000 3.7 times Exceptionally High
18-6 17,000 3.3 times Exceptionally High
18-24 6,000 1.2 times High
30-1 18,000 3.5 times Exceptionally High
30-3 15,000 2.9 times Exceptionally High
30-6 11,000 2.1 times Exceptionally High
30-24 5,000 Same High
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
IMPACT ON TARBELA RESERVOIR
 IN ORDER TO CHECK THE IMPACT OF THIS FLOOD WAVE ON INDUS
RIVER UP TO TARBELA RESERVOIR, THE MODEL HAS BEEN EXTENDED
UPTO THAKOT ON INDUS RIVER.
 A RIVER REACH OF 350 KM FROM GILGIT CONFLUENCE TO BESHAM
HAS BEEN ANALYZED USING HECRAS.
 TARBELA RESERVOIR IS ABOUT 100 KM DOWNSTREAM OF BESHAM.
 CROSS-SECTIONS HAVE BEEN EXTRACTED FROM ASTER DATA.
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
WAVE PROPOGATION
FROM GILGIT TO BESHAM,
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION
FROM GILGIT TO BESHAM, SCENARIO-18-1
Safe Safe
danger
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION
FROM GILGIT TO BESHAM, SCENARIO-18-3
Safe
Safe
danger
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION
FROM GILGIT TO BESHAM, SCENARIO-30-1
Safe Safe
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
Partab
Historic Instantaneous Peaks
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Flow(m3
/s)
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION
Historic Peaks at Partab/Bunji
Flood Peak in 18-1 Scenario
Flood Peak in 30-1 Scenario
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
Shatial
Historic Instantaneous Peaks
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Flow(m3
/s) DAM-BREAK STUDIES
FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION
Historic Peaks at Shatial
Flood Peak in 18-1 Scenario
Flood Peak in 30-1 Scenario
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
Besham
Historic Instantaneous Peaks
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Flow(m3
/s) DAM-BREAK STUDIES
FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION
Historic Peaks at Besham
Flood Peak in 18-1 Scenario
Flood Peak in 30-1 Scenario
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
FLOOD INNUNDATION
MAP
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
FLOOD INNUNDATION
MAP
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
DAM-BREAK STUDIES
FLOOD INNUNDATION MAP
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
 THE LANDSLIDE AT ATABAD TOOK PLACE ON 4TH JANUARY 2010 THAT
CREATED A LANDSLDIE DAM ACROSS THE HUNZA RIVER.
 THE LOCATION IS ABOUT 30 KM UPSTREAM OF ALIABAD AND ABOUT
10 KM DOWNSTREAM OF GULMIT.
 THE LANDSLIDE TOOK PLACE AT THE AREA LOCATED ON A FAULT
LINE, WHICH HAS CREATED A HIGHLY CRUSHED ROCK MASS.
 THE LANDSLIDE MATERIAL CONSISTS OF A MIXTURE OF LARGE
BOULDERS, COBBLES, SILT AND PLASTIC CLAY. THE PERCENTAGE
OF EACH VARIES ON THE LANDSLIDE MASS.
CONCLUSIONS
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
 THE LANDSLIDE DAM HEIGHT (lowest point) IS 126 (413 ft) METERS
ABOVE THE RIVER BED LEVEL, WIDTH 250 TO 350 METERS AND
LENGTH ALONG THE RIVER IS 2000 METERS.
 THE LANDSLIDE DAM CREATED A POTENTIAL STORAGE OF 305 MCM
IF IT FILLED TO THE TOP.
 WITH A SPILLWAY CUT DEPTH OF 18 METERS THE STORAGE
POTENTIAL REDUCES TO 195 MCM (36% reduction).
 A SPILLWAY CUT DEPTH OF 30 METERS REDUCES THE STORAGE
POTENTIAL TO 133 MCM (56% reduction).
CONCLUSIONS (Cont)
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
 USING RIVER FLOW DATA, WITH THE PRESENT 18 METER (about 60 ft)
DEEP SPILLWAY CUT, IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE LANDSLIDE DAM
WOULD START OVERTOPPING BETWEEN 12TH MAY TO 21ST JUNE,
2010.
 WITH A 30 METER (about 100 ft) DEEP SPILLWAY CUT IT IS ESTIMATED
THAT THE LANDSLIDE DAM WOULD START OVERTOPPING BETWEEN
30TH APRIL TO 10TH JUNE, 2010.
CONCLUSIONS (Cont)
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
 HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING CENTRE’S RIVER ANALYSIS SYSTEM
(HEC-RAS) Ver-4.0 HAS BEEN USED BY NESPAK IN THE DAM BREAK
STUDIES.
 TWO DIFFERENT SPILWAY CUT DEPTHS HAVE BEEN ASSUMED i.e. 18
METERS AND 30 METERS.
 FOR EACH SPILLWAY CUT DEPTH, FOUR DIFFERENT TIMES TO
BREACH HAVE BEEN MODELLED i.e. 1 HR, 3 HR, 6 HR AND 24 HR.
THUS IN TOTAL EIGHT DIFFERENT DAM BREAK SCENARIOS HAVE
BEEN MODELLED.
 THE MODEL HAS BEEN BASICALLY RUN TO SHOW THE EFFECT TILL
GILGIT BUT THE MODEL HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO SHOW RESULTS
UP TO BESHAM
CONCLUSIONS (Cont)
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
 FOR A 18 METER DEEP SPILLWAY CUT, THE RESULTS OF DAM BREAK
STUDY ARE SUMMARISED AS:
CONCLUSIONS (Cont)
Scenario
Peak Flow at
Landslide
(m3/s)
Peak flow reaching
Gilgit Confluence
(m3/s)
Max Depth* at
Gilgit
Confluence
(m)
Time to
maximum
discharge
at Gilgit
Confluence
(hours)
1-hour Breach 92,000 20,000 15 4.5
3-hour Breach 41,000 19,000 15 5.25
6-hour Breach 23,000 17,000 14 6.5
24-hour Breach 7,000 6,000 9 11
 * From River Bed
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
 FOR A 30 METER DEEP SPILLWAY CUT, THE RESULTS OF DAM BREAK
STUDY ARE SUMMARISED AS:
CONCLUSIONS (Cont)
Scenario
Peak Flow at
Landslide
(m3/s)
Peak flow reaching
Gilgit Confluence
(m3/s)
Max Depth* at
Gilgit
Confluence
(m)
Time to
maximum
discharge
at Gilgit
Confluence
(hours)
1-hour Breach 76,000 18,000 14 5.25
3-hour Breach 29,000 15,000 13 6
6-hour Breach 16,000 11,000 12 7.5
24-hour Breach 5,000 5,000 8 12.5
 * From River Bed
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
WHEN COMPARED TO HISTORICAL FLOOD DATA:
CONCLUSIONS (Cont)
Scenario
Peak flow reaching
Gilgit Confluence
(m3/s)
Compared with
Historic Peak at
Daniyor Bridge
Danger level
18-1 20,000 3.8 times Exceptionally High
18-3 19,000 3.7 times Exceptionally High
18-6 17,000 3.3 times Exceptionally High
18-24 6,000 1.2 times High
30-1 18,000 3.5 times Exceptionally High
30-3 15,000 2.9 times Exceptionally High
30-6 11,000 2.1 times Exceptionally High
30-24 5,000 Same High
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
 THE MODEL HAS BEEN EXTENDED UP TO BESHAM.
CONCLUSIONS (Cont)
Scenario
Peak flow reaching
Partab Bridge
(m3/s)
Compared with
Historic Peak at
Partab Bridge
Danger level
18-1 15,600 1.25 times Exceptionally High
30-1 11,000 0.9 times High
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
 THEREFORE, IT CAN BE SAID THAT EXCEPT FOR THE SCENARIOS 18-
1 AND 18-3, THE FLOOD PEAK AT PARTAB BRIDGE WOULD BE LESS
THAN THE HISTORICAL PEAK OF 1963.
 THE EFFECT DOWNSTREAM OF PARTAB BRIDGE WILL NOT BE
HIGHER THAN ANY HISTORICAL FLOOD OF RECENT PAST (1960
ONWARDS) FOR ALL SCENARIOS
 THE EFFECT AT TARBELA WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.
CONCLUSIONS (Cont)
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
 AN EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS AND ACTION PLAN (EPAP) SHOULD
BE PREPARED ON THE BASIS OF THE DAM BREAK STUDY RESULTS.
 THE GUIDING PRINCIPLE SHOULD BE TO “PREPARE FOR THE WORST
WHILE HOPING FOR THE BEST”.
 THE 18-1 SCENARIO (18 meters deep cut; 1 hr time to breach) IS THE
WORST CASE SCENARIO. THIS SHOULD BE USED TO PREPARE THE
EMERGENCY PLANS.
 THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE DAM BREAK WILL BE FROM FLOOD
INUNDATION AND HIGH VELOCITY OF FLOOD WAVE
 THE SECONDARY EFFECT WILL BE FROM LANDSLIDES IN THE LAKE
AREA DUE TO RAPID DRAWDOWN AND IN THE DOWNSTREAM AREA
DUE TO RIVER BANK EROSION.
RECOMMENDATIONS
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
 THE RESULTS INDICATE DANGER TO:
 PEOPLE LIVING ON LOWER ELEVATIONS CLOSE TO THE RIVER
BANKS
 PEOPLE LIVING CLOSE TO TERRACE EDGES OR ON UNSTABLE
SLOPES
 ROADS AND BRIDGES ON LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE FLOOD
WATER IS EXPECTED TO RISE.
 ALL THE PEOPLE AT RISK WILL HAVE TO BE EVACUATED AND MOVED
TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS / STABLE AREAS.
 EMERGENCY PLANS SHOULD BE PREPARED KEEPING IN MIND THAT
THE ROADS AND BRIDGES COULD BE WIDELY DAMAGED UP TO
CONFLUENCE WITH INDUS / RAIKOT BRIDGE
RECOMMENDATIONS (Cont)
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
 A 24 HR MONITORING OF THE LANDSLIDE DAM SHOULD BE STARTED.
 LINES OF COMMUNICATION AND WARNINGS SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED
FOR UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM COMMUNITIES.
 ALL THE COMMUNITIES LIVING IN THE DANGER AREA SHOULD BE
ALERTED NOW AND GIVEN THE KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THE DAM BREAK
SCENARIOS AND WHAT TO DO IN CASE OF EMERGENCY (EVACUATION
PLAN).
RECOMMENDATIONS (Cont)
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
 THREE ALERT STATES SHOULD BE MADE:
 LEVEL ONE: WATER LEVEL JUST TWO METERS BELOW CUT LEVEL
 LEVEL TWO: WATER STARTS TO FLOW OVER THE CUT
 LEVEL THREE: DAM EROSION IN PROGRESS; DAM BREACH IS
IMMINENT.
 NESPAK SURVEYORS SHOULD MOVE WITH THE NDMA / ARMY TEAMS
TO MARK HIGHEST FLOOD LEVELS FOR THE 18-1 SCENARIO
IMMEDIATELY.
 ALL STAKE HOLDERS (ARMY, FWO, NDMA, LOCAL ADMINISTRATION)
SHOULD BE TAKEN ON BOARD FOR THE EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS
AND ACTION PLAN (EPAP).
RECOMMENDATIONS (Cont)
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
THANK YOU
National Engineering Services Pakistan (Pvt.) Ltd.
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
FLOOD MARK AT SARAT BRIDGE
35 m above Bridge Deck
(18-1 Scenario)
Flow
Direction
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
FLOOD MARK AT GANESH BRIDGE
25 m above Bridge Deck
(18-1 Scenario)
Flow
Direction
Ganesh
Bridge
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
FLOOD MARK AT BAST FAIZA ABD BRIDGE
25 m above Bridge Deck
(18-1 Scenario)
Flow
Direction
Bridge
ATABAD LANDSLIDE
FLOOD MARK AT SIKANDRABAD BRIDGE
15 m above Bridge Deck
(18-1 Scenario)
Bridge
Flow
Direction

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Dam Break Study-Hunza River by NESPAK

  • 1. ATABAD LANDSLIDE In the name of Allah the Most Gracious the Most Merciful
  • 2. ATABAD LANDSLIDE DAM BREAK STUDY OF ATABAD LANDSLIDE MARCH 2010 National Engineering Services Pakistan (Pvt.) Ltd.
  • 3. ATABAD LANDSLIDE THE DAM BREAK ANALYSIS HAS BEEN CARRIED OUT BY NESPAK TO ANSWER THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS; 1. WHAT IS THE LOCATION & COMPOSITION OF LANDSLIDE? 2. WHAT IS THE CAPACITY OF LAKE THAT HAS BEEN FORMED? 3. WHEN THE LAKE WOULD OVERTOP THE LANDSLIDE MASS? 4. WHAT WOULD BE THE PEAK FLOOD DISCHARGE AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS ALONG HUNZA RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF LANDSLIDE? 5. WHAT WOULD BE THE DEPTH AND VELOCITY OF WATER AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS?
  • 4. ATABAD LANDSLIDE THE DAM BREAK ANALYSIS HAS BEEN CARRIED OUT BY NESPAK TO ANSWER THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS (CONTD….); 6. HOW MUCH IS THE WARNING TIME FOR VARIOUS VILLAGES/GILGIT CITY ? 7. WHAT ARE THE AREAS THAT WOULD BE AFFECTED IN CASE OF DAM FAILURE ? 8. UPTO WHICH LOCATION ON THE RIVER THE DAMBREAK FLOOD WAVE WOULD BE HIGHLY DESTRUCTIVE? 9. WHAT ARE THE MAJOR AND IMMEDIATE STEPS/ DECISIONS REQUIRED AT THIS STAGE?
  • 5. ATABAD LANDSLIDE THE KEY PROFESSIONALS INVOLVED IN THIS ANALYSIS ARE; Dr. TAHIR HAYAT VICE PRESIDENT (GT&GE) MIRZA ASIF BAIG GENERAL MANAGER (WRD) Dr. MANSOOR HASHMI GENERAL MANAGER (WRD) Engr. SHAHRUKH LATIF CHIEF ENGINEER (WRD) Engr. YASIR ABBAS SENIOR ENGINEER (WRD) Mr. ADIL LATIF GIS/RS-ANALYST Mr. MUHAMMAD AKRAM SURVEYOR Mr. RAZZAQ AHMAD DRAFTSMAN AND SUPPORTING STAFF
  • 7. ATABAD LANDSLIDE SATELLITE MAP OF LANDSLIDE AREA
  • 10. ATABAD LANDSLIDE  FIVE SOIL AND ONE ROCK (GRAVEL) SAMPLE WAS COLLECTED FROM THE LANDSLIDE DAM SITE.  THREE SAMPLES OF THE DUST WERE COLLECTED AS SAMPLE 1, 2 AND 3, WHILE TWO SAMPLES OF THE BLACK CLAY WERE COLLECTED AND LABELED AS SAMPLE 4 AND 5.  THESE SAMPLES WERE SUBJECTED TO LABORATORY TESTS.  THE RESULTS OF LABORATORY TESTS SHOW THAT THE DUST SAMPLES ARE VERY FINE ROCK FLOUR AS THEY SHOW 30% TO 80% MATERIAL PASSING NO. 200 SIEVE YET THESE HAVE NO PLASTICITY. SOIL AND ROCK SAMPLES
  • 11. ATABAD LANDSLIDE THUS THE VISUAL OBSERVATIONS AT THE SITE ARE CONFIRMED THAT THE BLACK SOIL HAS ORGANIC CONTENT AND IT IS VERY FINE AND PLASTIC. ON THE OTHER HAND THE DUST AT SITE IS ALSO VERY FINE BUT NON-PLASTIC. SOIL AND ROCK SAMPLES  THE BLACK SOIL SAMPLES (SAMPLE 4 AND 5) INDICATE A VERY FINE SOIL WITH ALMOST 100% PASSING NO. 200 SIEVE IN BOTH CASES AND HAVING LL OF 28% AND PL RANGING FROM 21% TO 22%.  THE ORGANIC MATTER CONTENT IS 0.95% AND 1.10% FOR THE TWO BLACK CLAY SAMPLES, PEGMATITE AND APALITE.
  • 12. ATABAD LANDSLIDE SOIL AND ROCK SAMPLES  THE GRAVEL SAMPLES COLLECTED FORM THE SITE INDICATE THAT THESE ARE GANODIORATIC ROCKS WITH INTRUSION OF GRANITE, PEGMATITE AND APALITE.
  • 13. ATABAD LANDSLIDE A VIEW OF SLUSH MATERIAL PRESENT IN THE UPSTREAM AREA.
  • 14. ATABAD LANDSLIDE A VIEW OF NARROW UPSTREAM VALLEY.
  • 15. ATABAD LANDSLIDE A DISTANT VIEW OF WIDE VALLEY NEAR GULMIT.
  • 16. ATABAD LANDSLIDE A VIEW OF SHISHKAT BRIDGE. NOTE THE EXPANDING LAKE WATER LEVEL TOUCHING THE FOUNDATIONS.
  • 17. ATABAD LANDSLIDE SOURCE INFORMATION  CONTOUR SURVEY OF LANDSLIDE MASS  SPOT-5 SATELLITE IMAGERY DATA (LANDSLIDE AREA ONLY)  ASTER DATA (30 M RESOLUTION)  SURVEY OF PAKISTAN (SOP), G.T SHEETS  DAILY FLOW AND INSTANTANEOUS PEAK FLOW DATA AT  HUNZA RIVER AT DANIYOR BRIDGE (1962-ONWARDS)  GILGIT RIVER AT GILGIT (1962-ONWARDS)  INDUS RIVER AT PARTAB BRIDGE (1960-ONWARDS)  INDUS RIVER AT SHATIAL BRIDGE (1984-ONWARDS)  INDUS RIVER AT BESHAM (1960-ONWARDS)
  • 18. ATABAD LANDSLIDE SOURCE INFORMATION CROSS SECTIONAL SURVEY  TOTAL = 140 CROSS SECTIONS  HUNZA RIVER = 128 CROSS-SECTIONS  GILGIT RIVER = 12 CROSS-SECTIONS  CROSS SECTIONS EXTRACTED FROM ASTER DATA  FROM GILGIT TO BESHAM  TOTAL = 90 CROSS SECTIONS AT EVERY 3 KM
  • 19. ATABAD LANDSLIDE TOPOGRAPHIC SURVEY OF LANDSLIDE FLOW PATH Section Across Dam Legend L-Section X-Section Elevation High : 2500 Low : 2312
  • 20. ATABAD LANDSLIDE LONGITUDINAL SECTION OF LANDSLIDE ALONG POSSIBLE FLOW PATH Flow Direction
  • 21. ATABAD LANDSLIDE ANALYSIS OF G.T SHEET, ASTER DEM & RIVER SURVEY
  • 25. ATABAD LANDSLIDE DAM-BREAK STUDIES SCENARIO ANALYSED DAM BREAK STUDY HAS BEEN CARRIED OUT FOR TWO CONDITIONS 1. FOR 18m CUT ( ALREADY ACHIEVED) 2. FOR 30m CUT (MAY BE ACHIEVED BEFORE OVERTOPPING)
  • 26. ATABAD LANDSLIDE ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE FLOWS AT LANDSLIDE LOCATION 254 232 218 502 1509 5061 9841 4267 1326 658 486 10091 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Flow(ft3 /s) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Flow(m3 /s)
  • 27. ATABAD LANDSLIDE OBSERVED MONTHLY AVERAGE FLOWS AT DANIYOR, GILGIT AND PARTAB BRIDGE 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Flow(m3 /s) 0 50 100 150 200 Flowx1000(ft3 /s) Hunza River at Daniyor Gilgit river at Alam Bridge Indus River at Partab/Bunji
  • 31. ATABAD LANDSLIDE DAM-BREAK STUDIES  HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING CENTRE’S RIVER ANALYSIS SYSTEM (HEC- RAS) VER-4.0 HAS BEEN USED IN THIS DAM BREAK STUDIES  HEC-RAS IS A ONE-DIMENSIONAL HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL DEVELOPED BY U.S ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS  HEC-RAS CAN MODEL BOTH OVERTOPPING AND PIPING FAILURE OF EARTHEN DAMS  THE RESULTING FLOOD WAVE IS ROUTED DOWNSTREAM USING UNSTEADY FLOW EQUATIONS
  • 32. ATABAD LANDSLIDE DAM-BREAK STUDIES ESTIMATION OF BREACH PARAMETERS  THE BREACH PARAMETERS INCLUDE  TIME TO BREACH  BOTTOM WIDTH OF BREACHED SECTION  BOTTOM ELEVATION OF BREACHED SECTION  SIDE SLOPES AT BREACHED SECTION  BREACH WEIR COEFFICIENT 200 400 600 Latest Cross sections70_1_n = 0.1 Plan: 70 3/16/2010 RS = 100100 IS .1
  • 33. ATABAD LANDSLIDE DAM-BREAK STUDIES ESTIMATION OF BREACH PARAMETERS  BOTTOM WIDTH OF BREACHED SECTION HAS BEEN ESTIMATED AS 190 M  BOTTOM ELEVATION OF BREACHED SECTION HAS BEEN ESTIMATED AS 2300 M  LEFT AND RIGHT SIDE SLOPES HAS BEEN ESTIMATED AS 1 VER. : 1 HOR.  BREACH WEIR COEFFICIENT HAS BEEN ESTIMATED AS 2.6  VARIOUS TIME TO BREACH HAS BEEN ANALYZED RANGING FROM 1 HOUR TO 24 HOUR
  • 35. ATABAD LANDSLIDE DAM-BREAK STUDIES OUTFLOW FLOOD HYDROGRAPH  THE FLOOD HYDROGRAPH AS A RESULT OF RELEASE OF ALL LAKE CONTENTS 2300 2400 0100 0200 0300 0400 30Dec2009 31Dec2009 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 Plan: 70 River: Hunza Reach: 1 RS: 101935.7 Time Flow(m3/s) Legend Flow 3,319,578 ft3/s
  • 36. ATABAD LANDSLIDE DAM-BREAK STUDIES SUMMARY OF SCENARIO ANALYSED SCENARIO ID TIME TO BREACH DESCRIPTION 18-1 1 hour Cut Depth = 18 m Overtopping Level =2398 m Dam Height = 108 m Lake Volume = 195 MCM 18-3 3 hour 18-6 6 hour 18-24 24 hour 30-1 1 hour Cut Depth = 30 m Overtopping Level =2386 m Dam Height = 96 m Lake Volume = 133 MCM 30-3 3 hour 30-6 6 hour 30-24 24 hour
  • 37. ATABAD LANDSLIDE Lake DAM-BREAK STUDIES RIVER SCHEMATISATION LAKE LANDSLIDE HUNZA RIVER River Reach Length = 100 km from landslide location to confluence with Gilgit River Confluence with Gilgit River
  • 38. ATABAD LANDSLIDE 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 Latest Cross sections70_1_n = 0.1 Plan: 70 3/16/2010 Main Channel Distance (m) Elevation(m) Legend EG 29DEC2009 2400 WS 29DEC2009 2400 Crit 29DEC2009 2400 Ground DAM-BREAK STUDIES RIVER BED PROFILE LAKE LANDSLIDE HUNZA RIVER Reach Length = 100 km Slope of River = 0.009 (900 meters drop in 100 km) Confluence with Gilgit River
  • 39. ATABAD LANDSLIDE DAM-BREAK STUDIES FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION LAKE LANDSLIDE Confluence with Gilgit River
  • 40. ATABAD LANDSLIDE 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 Latest Cross sections70_1_n = 0.1 Plan: 70 3/17/2010 Main Channel Distance (m) Elevation(m) Legend EG MaxWS WS MaxWS Crit MaxWS Ground DAM-BREAK STUDIES MAXIMUM WATER SURFACE ALONG THE RIVER LAKE LANDSLIDE Confluence with Gilgit River
  • 41. ATABAD LANDSLIDE MAX WATER COMPUTATIONS COMPUTATIONSSCHEMATISATION SUMAIR KARIMABAD
  • 42. ATABAD LANDSLIDE 0 100 200 300 400 500 2060 2080 2100 2120 2140 2160 2180 1 hour breach@2398 Plan: 70 3/23/2010 RS = 84943.89 Station (m) Elevation(m) Legend EG 30DEC2009 0006 WS 30DEC2009 0006 Ground Bank Sta MAX WATER COMPUTATIONS
  • 43. ATABAD LANDSLIDE 0 100 200 300 400 500 2060 2080 2100 2120 2140 2160 2180 1 hour breach@2398 Plan: 70 3/23/2010 RS = 84943.89 Station (m) Elevation(m) Legend EG Max WS WS MaxWS Ground Bank Sta Max Depth =35m Depth above Left Bank =22m Depth above Right Bank =28m MAX WATER COMPUTATIONS
  • 45. ATABAD LANDSLIDE 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1540 1560 1580 1600 1620 1640 1660 1 hour breach@2398 Plan: 70 3/23/2010 RS = 25125.99 Station (m) Elevation(m) Legend EG 30DEC2009 0006 WS 30DEC2009 0006 Ground Bank Sta MAX WATER COMPUTATIONS
  • 46. ATABAD LANDSLIDE 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1540 1560 1580 1600 1620 1640 1660 1 hour breach@2398 Plan: 70 3/23/2010 RS = 25125.99 Station (m) Elevation(m) Legend EG Max WS WS MaxWS Ground Bank Sta MAX WATER COMPUTATIONS
  • 47. ATABAD LANDSLIDE Overtoping at El. 2398m, Dam height 108m 1 hour Breach 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 21:36 22:48 00:00 01:12 02:24 03:36 04:48 06:00 07:12 08:24 09:36 10:48 12:00 Flow(m 3 /s) Just Downstream Landslide At Confluence with Gilgit DAM-BREAK STUDIES FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION SCENARIO-18-1 Time From Start of Breach to Arrival of Peak at Gilgit Confluence = 4.5 hrs 3,248,950 ft3/s 706,000ft3/s
  • 48. ATABAD LANDSLIDE Overtoping at El. 2398m, Dam height 108m 3 hour Breach 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 21:36 22:48 00:00 01:12 02:24 03:36 04:48 06:00 07:12 08:24 09:36 10:48 12:00 Flow(m 3 /s) Just Downstream Landslide At Confluence with Gilgit DAM-BREAK STUDIES FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION SCENARIO-18-3 Time From Start of Breach to Arrival of Peak at Gilgit Confluence =5.25hrs 1,447,900 ft3/s 671,000 ft3/s
  • 49. ATABAD LANDSLIDE Overtoping at El. 2398m, Dam height 108m 6 hour Breach 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 21:36 22:48 00:00 01:12 02:24 03:36 04:48 06:00 07:12 08:24 09:36 10:48 12:00 Flow(m 3 /s) Just Downstream Landslide At Confluence with Gilgit DAM-BREAK STUDIES FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION SCENARIO-18-6 Time From Start of Breach to Arrival of Peak at Gilgit Confluence = 6.5 hrs 812,000 ft3/s 600,000 ft3/s
  • 50. ATABAD LANDSLIDE Overtoping at El. 2398m, Dam height 108m 24 hour Breach 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 21:36 22:48 00:00 01:12 02:24 03:36 04:48 06:00 07:12 08:24 09:36 10:48 12:00 13:12 14:24 15:36 16:48 18:00 19:12 20:24 21:36 Flow(m 3 /s) Just Downstream Landslide At Confluence with Gilgit DAM-BREAK STUDIES FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION SCENARIO-18-24 Time From Start of Breach to Arrival of Peak at Gilgit Confluence = 11 hrs247,000 ft3/s 212,000 ft3/s
  • 51. ATABAD LANDSLIDE DAM-BREAK STUDIES FLOOD WAVE JUST DOWNSTREAM OF LANDSLIDE SUMMARY OF SCENARIO 18-1, 18-3, 18-6 & 18-24 Overtoping at El. 2398m, Dam height 108m 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 21:36 22:48 00:00 01:12 02:24 03:36 04:48 06:00 07:12 08:24 09:36 10:48 12:00 Flow(m3 /s) 1 hour Breach 3 hour Breach 6 hour Breach 24 hour Breach 3,248,950 ft3/s 1,447,900 ft3/s 812,000 ft3/s 247,000 ft3/s
  • 52. ATABAD LANDSLIDE Overtoping at El. 2386m, Dam height 96m 1 hour Breach 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 21:36 22:48 00:00 01:12 02:24 03:36 04:48 06:00 07:12 08:24 09:36 10:48 12:00 Flow(m 3 /s) Just Downstream Landslide At Confluence with Gilgit DAM-BREAK STUDIES FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION SCENARIO-30-1 Time From Start of Breach to Arrival of Peak at Gilgit Confluence = 5.25 hrs2,684,000 ft3/s 635,600 ft3/s
  • 53. ATABAD LANDSLIDE Overtoping at El. 2386m, Dam height 96m 3 hour Breach 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 21:36 22:48 00:00 01:12 02:24 03:36 04:48 06:00 07:12 08:24 09:36 10:48 12:00 Flow(m 3 /s) Just Downstream Landslide At Confluence with Gilgit DAM-BREAK STUDIES FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION SCENARIO-30-3 Time From Start of Breach to Arrival of Peak at Gilgit Confluence = 6 hrs 1,025,000 ft3/s 530,000 ft3/s
  • 54. ATABAD LANDSLIDE Overtoping at El. 2386m, Dam height 96m 6 hour Breach 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 21:36 22:48 00:00 01:12 02:24 03:36 04:48 06:00 07:12 08:24 09:36 10:48 12:00 Flow(m 3 /s) Just Downstream Landslide At Confluence with Gilgit DAM-BREAK STUDIES FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION SCENARIO-30-6 Time From Start of Breach to Arrival of Peak at Gilgit Confluence = 7.5 hrs565,000 ft3/s 388,000 ft3/s
  • 55. ATABAD LANDSLIDE Overtoping at El. 2386m, Dam height 96m 24 hour Breach 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 21:36 22:48 00:00 01:12 02:24 03:36 04:48 06:00 07:12 08:24 09:36 10:48 12:00 13:12 14:24 15:36 16:48 18:00 19:12 20:24 21:36 Flow(m 3 /s) Just Downstream Landslide At Confluence with Gilgit DAM-BREAK STUDIES FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION SCENARIO-30-24 Time From Start of Breach to Arrival of Peak at Gilgit Confluence = 12.5 hrs 177,000 ft3/s 172,000 ft3/s
  • 56. ATABAD LANDSLIDE DAM-BREAK STUDIES FLOOD WAVE JUST DOWNSTREAM OF LANDSLIDE SUMMARY OF SCENARIO 30-1, 30-3, 30-6 & 30-24 Overtoping at El. 2386m, Dam height 96m 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 21:36 22:48 00:00 01:12 02:24 03:36 04:48 06:00 07:12 08:24 09:36 10:48 12:00 Flow(m3 /s) 1 hour Breach 3 hour Breach 6 hour Breach 24 hour Breach 2,684,000 ft3/s 1,025,000t3/s 565,000 t3/s 177,000 t3/s
  • 57. ATABAD LANDSLIDE DAM-BREAK STUDIES FLOOD PEAK ARRIVAL TIME FOR VARIOUS SCENARIOS Scenario Time from Start of Breach to Peak Reaching Gilgit Confluence (hours) 18-1 4.50 18-3 5.25 18-6 6.50 18-24 11.0 30-1 5.25 30-3 6.00 30-6 7.50 30-24 12.50
  • 58. ATABAD LANDSLIDE DAM-BREAK STUDIES FLOOD PEAK COMAPARISON FOR VARIOUS SCENARIOS Scenario Peak Flow at Landslide Peak flow reaching Gilgit Confluence Max. Water Depth at Landslide Max. water depth reaching Gilgit Confluence (m3/s) (m3/s) (m) (m) 18-1 92,000 20,000 52 15 18-3 41,000 19,000 24 15 18-6 23,000 17,000 19 14 18-24 7,000 6,000 11 9 30-1 76,000 18,000 33 14 30-3 29,000 15,000 21 13 30-6 16,000 11,000 16 12 30-24 5,000 5,000 9 8
  • 59. ATABAD LANDSLIDE DAM-BREAK STUDIES MAX DEPTH, VELOCITY AND TIME TO MAX DISCHARGE ALONG HUNZA RIVER (18-1 SCENARIO) Village Max Depth above river Bed (m) Max velocity (m/s) Time of maximum Discharge Ahmedabad 47.2 10.6 30 min Faisabad 49.4 11.2 40 min Atit 52.0 12.7 55 min Karimabad 40.4 8.6 1 hour Aliabad, Sumair 46.4 7.5 1 hour 15 min Murtazabad 50.6 10.3 1 hour 30 min Toshot 46.0 9.4 1 hour 40 min
  • 60. ATABAD LANDSLIDE DAM-BREAK STUDIES MAX DEPTH, VELOCITY AND TIME TO MAX DISCHARGE ALONG HUNZA RIVER (18-1 SCENARIO) (Cont..) Village Max Depth above river Bed (m) Max velocity (m/s) Time of maximum Discharge Miacher 40.0 13.5 1 hour 50 min Minapin Nagar , Pisan 37.3 11.0 1 hour 55 min Kahnabad, Thole nagar 48.8 5.8 2 hours 5 min Nilt Nagar 48.8 5.8 2 hours 5 min Jafarabad 48.8 5.8 2 hours 5 min Sikandarabad 48.8 5.8 2 hours 5 min Chalt 30.5 6.3 2 hours 25 min
  • 61. ATABAD LANDSLIDE DAM-BREAK STUDIES MAX DEPTH, VELOCITY AND TIME TO MAX DISCHARGE ALONG HUNZA RIVER (18-1 SCENARIO) (Cont..) Village Max Depth above river Bed (m) Max velocity (m/s) Time of maximum Discharge Jaglot 22.6 8.4 3 hours 30 min Nomal 15.8 5.1 3 hours 50 min Danyor 15.0 11.1 4 hours 15 min
  • 62. ATABAD LANDSLIDE DAM-BREAK STUDIES HISTORIC OBSERVED INSTANTANEOUS FLOOD PEAKS HUNZA RIVER AT DANIYOR 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Flow(m3 /s) Flood Peak in 18-1 Scenario Flood Peak in 30-1 Scenario
  • 63. ATABAD LANDSLIDE DAM-BREAK STUDIES HISTORIC OBSERVED INSTANTANEOUS FLOOD PEAKS HUNZA RIVER AT DANIYOR Scenario Peak flow reaching Gilgit Confluence (m3/s) Compared with Historic Peak at Daniyor Bridge Danger level 18-1 20,000 3.8 times Exceptionally High 18-3 19,000 3.7 times Exceptionally High 18-6 17,000 3.3 times Exceptionally High 18-24 6,000 1.2 times High 30-1 18,000 3.5 times Exceptionally High 30-3 15,000 2.9 times Exceptionally High 30-6 11,000 2.1 times Exceptionally High 30-24 5,000 Same High
  • 64. ATABAD LANDSLIDE DAM-BREAK STUDIES IMPACT ON TARBELA RESERVOIR  IN ORDER TO CHECK THE IMPACT OF THIS FLOOD WAVE ON INDUS RIVER UP TO TARBELA RESERVOIR, THE MODEL HAS BEEN EXTENDED UPTO THAKOT ON INDUS RIVER.  A RIVER REACH OF 350 KM FROM GILGIT CONFLUENCE TO BESHAM HAS BEEN ANALYZED USING HECRAS.  TARBELA RESERVOIR IS ABOUT 100 KM DOWNSTREAM OF BESHAM.  CROSS-SECTIONS HAVE BEEN EXTRACTED FROM ASTER DATA.
  • 66. ATABAD LANDSLIDE DAM-BREAK STUDIES FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION FROM GILGIT TO BESHAM, SCENARIO-18-1 Safe Safe danger
  • 67. ATABAD LANDSLIDE DAM-BREAK STUDIES FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION FROM GILGIT TO BESHAM, SCENARIO-18-3 Safe Safe danger
  • 68. ATABAD LANDSLIDE DAM-BREAK STUDIES FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION FROM GILGIT TO BESHAM, SCENARIO-30-1 Safe Safe
  • 69. ATABAD LANDSLIDE Partab Historic Instantaneous Peaks 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Flow(m3 /s) DAM-BREAK STUDIES FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION Historic Peaks at Partab/Bunji Flood Peak in 18-1 Scenario Flood Peak in 30-1 Scenario
  • 70. ATABAD LANDSLIDE Shatial Historic Instantaneous Peaks 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Flow(m3 /s) DAM-BREAK STUDIES FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION Historic Peaks at Shatial Flood Peak in 18-1 Scenario Flood Peak in 30-1 Scenario
  • 71. ATABAD LANDSLIDE Besham Historic Instantaneous Peaks 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Flow(m3 /s) DAM-BREAK STUDIES FLOOD WAVE PROPOGATION Historic Peaks at Besham Flood Peak in 18-1 Scenario Flood Peak in 30-1 Scenario
  • 75. ATABAD LANDSLIDE  THE LANDSLIDE AT ATABAD TOOK PLACE ON 4TH JANUARY 2010 THAT CREATED A LANDSLDIE DAM ACROSS THE HUNZA RIVER.  THE LOCATION IS ABOUT 30 KM UPSTREAM OF ALIABAD AND ABOUT 10 KM DOWNSTREAM OF GULMIT.  THE LANDSLIDE TOOK PLACE AT THE AREA LOCATED ON A FAULT LINE, WHICH HAS CREATED A HIGHLY CRUSHED ROCK MASS.  THE LANDSLIDE MATERIAL CONSISTS OF A MIXTURE OF LARGE BOULDERS, COBBLES, SILT AND PLASTIC CLAY. THE PERCENTAGE OF EACH VARIES ON THE LANDSLIDE MASS. CONCLUSIONS
  • 76. ATABAD LANDSLIDE  THE LANDSLIDE DAM HEIGHT (lowest point) IS 126 (413 ft) METERS ABOVE THE RIVER BED LEVEL, WIDTH 250 TO 350 METERS AND LENGTH ALONG THE RIVER IS 2000 METERS.  THE LANDSLIDE DAM CREATED A POTENTIAL STORAGE OF 305 MCM IF IT FILLED TO THE TOP.  WITH A SPILLWAY CUT DEPTH OF 18 METERS THE STORAGE POTENTIAL REDUCES TO 195 MCM (36% reduction).  A SPILLWAY CUT DEPTH OF 30 METERS REDUCES THE STORAGE POTENTIAL TO 133 MCM (56% reduction). CONCLUSIONS (Cont)
  • 77. ATABAD LANDSLIDE  USING RIVER FLOW DATA, WITH THE PRESENT 18 METER (about 60 ft) DEEP SPILLWAY CUT, IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE LANDSLIDE DAM WOULD START OVERTOPPING BETWEEN 12TH MAY TO 21ST JUNE, 2010.  WITH A 30 METER (about 100 ft) DEEP SPILLWAY CUT IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE LANDSLIDE DAM WOULD START OVERTOPPING BETWEEN 30TH APRIL TO 10TH JUNE, 2010. CONCLUSIONS (Cont)
  • 78. ATABAD LANDSLIDE  HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING CENTRE’S RIVER ANALYSIS SYSTEM (HEC-RAS) Ver-4.0 HAS BEEN USED BY NESPAK IN THE DAM BREAK STUDIES.  TWO DIFFERENT SPILWAY CUT DEPTHS HAVE BEEN ASSUMED i.e. 18 METERS AND 30 METERS.  FOR EACH SPILLWAY CUT DEPTH, FOUR DIFFERENT TIMES TO BREACH HAVE BEEN MODELLED i.e. 1 HR, 3 HR, 6 HR AND 24 HR. THUS IN TOTAL EIGHT DIFFERENT DAM BREAK SCENARIOS HAVE BEEN MODELLED.  THE MODEL HAS BEEN BASICALLY RUN TO SHOW THE EFFECT TILL GILGIT BUT THE MODEL HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO SHOW RESULTS UP TO BESHAM CONCLUSIONS (Cont)
  • 79. ATABAD LANDSLIDE  FOR A 18 METER DEEP SPILLWAY CUT, THE RESULTS OF DAM BREAK STUDY ARE SUMMARISED AS: CONCLUSIONS (Cont) Scenario Peak Flow at Landslide (m3/s) Peak flow reaching Gilgit Confluence (m3/s) Max Depth* at Gilgit Confluence (m) Time to maximum discharge at Gilgit Confluence (hours) 1-hour Breach 92,000 20,000 15 4.5 3-hour Breach 41,000 19,000 15 5.25 6-hour Breach 23,000 17,000 14 6.5 24-hour Breach 7,000 6,000 9 11  * From River Bed
  • 80. ATABAD LANDSLIDE  FOR A 30 METER DEEP SPILLWAY CUT, THE RESULTS OF DAM BREAK STUDY ARE SUMMARISED AS: CONCLUSIONS (Cont) Scenario Peak Flow at Landslide (m3/s) Peak flow reaching Gilgit Confluence (m3/s) Max Depth* at Gilgit Confluence (m) Time to maximum discharge at Gilgit Confluence (hours) 1-hour Breach 76,000 18,000 14 5.25 3-hour Breach 29,000 15,000 13 6 6-hour Breach 16,000 11,000 12 7.5 24-hour Breach 5,000 5,000 8 12.5  * From River Bed
  • 81. ATABAD LANDSLIDE WHEN COMPARED TO HISTORICAL FLOOD DATA: CONCLUSIONS (Cont) Scenario Peak flow reaching Gilgit Confluence (m3/s) Compared with Historic Peak at Daniyor Bridge Danger level 18-1 20,000 3.8 times Exceptionally High 18-3 19,000 3.7 times Exceptionally High 18-6 17,000 3.3 times Exceptionally High 18-24 6,000 1.2 times High 30-1 18,000 3.5 times Exceptionally High 30-3 15,000 2.9 times Exceptionally High 30-6 11,000 2.1 times Exceptionally High 30-24 5,000 Same High
  • 82. ATABAD LANDSLIDE  THE MODEL HAS BEEN EXTENDED UP TO BESHAM. CONCLUSIONS (Cont) Scenario Peak flow reaching Partab Bridge (m3/s) Compared with Historic Peak at Partab Bridge Danger level 18-1 15,600 1.25 times Exceptionally High 30-1 11,000 0.9 times High
  • 83. ATABAD LANDSLIDE  THEREFORE, IT CAN BE SAID THAT EXCEPT FOR THE SCENARIOS 18- 1 AND 18-3, THE FLOOD PEAK AT PARTAB BRIDGE WOULD BE LESS THAN THE HISTORICAL PEAK OF 1963.  THE EFFECT DOWNSTREAM OF PARTAB BRIDGE WILL NOT BE HIGHER THAN ANY HISTORICAL FLOOD OF RECENT PAST (1960 ONWARDS) FOR ALL SCENARIOS  THE EFFECT AT TARBELA WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. CONCLUSIONS (Cont)
  • 84. ATABAD LANDSLIDE  AN EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS AND ACTION PLAN (EPAP) SHOULD BE PREPARED ON THE BASIS OF THE DAM BREAK STUDY RESULTS.  THE GUIDING PRINCIPLE SHOULD BE TO “PREPARE FOR THE WORST WHILE HOPING FOR THE BEST”.  THE 18-1 SCENARIO (18 meters deep cut; 1 hr time to breach) IS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO. THIS SHOULD BE USED TO PREPARE THE EMERGENCY PLANS.  THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE DAM BREAK WILL BE FROM FLOOD INUNDATION AND HIGH VELOCITY OF FLOOD WAVE  THE SECONDARY EFFECT WILL BE FROM LANDSLIDES IN THE LAKE AREA DUE TO RAPID DRAWDOWN AND IN THE DOWNSTREAM AREA DUE TO RIVER BANK EROSION. RECOMMENDATIONS
  • 85. ATABAD LANDSLIDE  THE RESULTS INDICATE DANGER TO:  PEOPLE LIVING ON LOWER ELEVATIONS CLOSE TO THE RIVER BANKS  PEOPLE LIVING CLOSE TO TERRACE EDGES OR ON UNSTABLE SLOPES  ROADS AND BRIDGES ON LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE FLOOD WATER IS EXPECTED TO RISE.  ALL THE PEOPLE AT RISK WILL HAVE TO BE EVACUATED AND MOVED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS / STABLE AREAS.  EMERGENCY PLANS SHOULD BE PREPARED KEEPING IN MIND THAT THE ROADS AND BRIDGES COULD BE WIDELY DAMAGED UP TO CONFLUENCE WITH INDUS / RAIKOT BRIDGE RECOMMENDATIONS (Cont)
  • 86. ATABAD LANDSLIDE  A 24 HR MONITORING OF THE LANDSLIDE DAM SHOULD BE STARTED.  LINES OF COMMUNICATION AND WARNINGS SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED FOR UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM COMMUNITIES.  ALL THE COMMUNITIES LIVING IN THE DANGER AREA SHOULD BE ALERTED NOW AND GIVEN THE KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THE DAM BREAK SCENARIOS AND WHAT TO DO IN CASE OF EMERGENCY (EVACUATION PLAN). RECOMMENDATIONS (Cont)
  • 87. ATABAD LANDSLIDE  THREE ALERT STATES SHOULD BE MADE:  LEVEL ONE: WATER LEVEL JUST TWO METERS BELOW CUT LEVEL  LEVEL TWO: WATER STARTS TO FLOW OVER THE CUT  LEVEL THREE: DAM EROSION IN PROGRESS; DAM BREACH IS IMMINENT.  NESPAK SURVEYORS SHOULD MOVE WITH THE NDMA / ARMY TEAMS TO MARK HIGHEST FLOOD LEVELS FOR THE 18-1 SCENARIO IMMEDIATELY.  ALL STAKE HOLDERS (ARMY, FWO, NDMA, LOCAL ADMINISTRATION) SHOULD BE TAKEN ON BOARD FOR THE EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS AND ACTION PLAN (EPAP). RECOMMENDATIONS (Cont)
  • 88. ATABAD LANDSLIDE THANK YOU National Engineering Services Pakistan (Pvt.) Ltd.
  • 89. ATABAD LANDSLIDE FLOOD MARK AT SARAT BRIDGE 35 m above Bridge Deck (18-1 Scenario) Flow Direction
  • 90. ATABAD LANDSLIDE FLOOD MARK AT GANESH BRIDGE 25 m above Bridge Deck (18-1 Scenario) Flow Direction Ganesh Bridge
  • 91. ATABAD LANDSLIDE FLOOD MARK AT BAST FAIZA ABD BRIDGE 25 m above Bridge Deck (18-1 Scenario) Flow Direction Bridge
  • 92. ATABAD LANDSLIDE FLOOD MARK AT SIKANDRABAD BRIDGE 15 m above Bridge Deck (18-1 Scenario) Bridge Flow Direction