Daily market commentary 10122014

DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
10 December 2014 | 7:29 AM
Daily Market Commentary | 10 December 2014 Page 1 of 12
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SNIPPETS
(Charts of the day)
SA mining and manufacturing production growth disappoints forecasts; mining production contracts as PGM and gold slumps
(Currencies)
Rand finds some reprieve after intraday touch of R11.57, majors post similar trend as dollar rally slows on day
(Equities)
Top 40 closes 2.41% lower with selling across the board on general risk aversion, Wall Street closes off the day’s lows, Asia negative on Chinese data
(Economics)
US trade sales and inventories; UK industrial production growth rises as mining activity buoyed; Japanese PPI eases; Chinese inflation remains benign
Key overnight factors and upcoming events
Economic calendar
Date
Region
Event  
Actual/expected/prior
Implications 09/12 SA Mining & manuf. production -- Mining production slumps, while manufacturing remains positive as the worst of the effects of the strikes have passed
09/12
UK
Industrial production y/y
1.10%/1.80%/0.80%
Production ticks higher as recovery persists, spurring demand 10/12 SA CPI y/y --/5.8%/5.9% Lower fuel and food prices likely to reflect in a lower headline CPI print
10/12
US
Monthly budget statement
--/-$67.5B/-$135.2B
Budget deficit likely to narrow as tax revenue continue to rise while spending is curbed
Source: Nedbank
Other reports produced back to top
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Charts of the day back to top
 SA’s mining production contracted by 1.1% in October, from the 5% surge in September, significantly below expectations for growth of
2.1%. PGM production contracted by 20.5% y/y from -17.6% in September, while production of gold, copper, other metals, and building
materials also contracted. In contrast, iron ore, manganese ore and coal were the only material positive contributors towards the index.
 Despite widespread anticipation for positive growth in mining production, the data surprised to the downside as a result of PGMs and gold
production. Low international prices of these precious metals have also hampered miner’s revenues and related productivity. We do
anticipate an uptick in overall mining production in the coming months, as demand from the US, UK and the Eurozone (to some extent) ticks
higher. China and the broader Asia remains a concern, as the region consumes a major proportion of SA commodity exports. In the local
context, 2015 could likely show a relatively more stable labour environment as miners have locked in a 2 year wage settlement. Hence, this
further supports our view for relatively healthier productivity, off a low base.
 Manufacturing production rose by 2.2% y/y in October, from the upwardly revised 8.6% surge in September (revised from 8%), marginally
below expectations of 2.4%. The more mellow tone in manufacturing output was mainly the result of the motor vehicles, parts and
accessories, which surged in September off a low base from a year earlier and contributed 5.8% towards overall manufacturing production
growth in September. In October, this subcomponent contributed 0.9% towards headline production, resulting in the overall slowdown in
manufacturing growth. Production of food and beverages also slowed, while most of the sub-components saw a deceleration in the growth
rates, indicating that that there was a broad slowdown across the manufacturing space.
 Manufacturing output is expected to tick higher as local demand slowly rises, albeit marginally in 2015. Similarly with mining, demand from
the US, Europe and UK will likely tick higher, spurring demand for SA exports. This will likely be hampered to some extent by the slowdown
in Asia, although the overall contribution of manufacturing towards local growth is expected to rise off a low base in 2014 (due to industrial
action). Europe remains a swing factor, as SA’s largest trading partner – any decline in demand from this region threatens to adversely
affect overall manufacturing activity and exports. Currently, we remain mildly optimistic that stimulus measures advanced by the ECB will
likely filter through to the real economy, boosting demand as a result.
The SARB is unlikely to hike at the January policy meeting because growth, as evidenced by the weak mining production data, still remains
subdued, while inflation ticks lower due to exogenous factors. The rand does remain a wild-card however, and this poses an upside risk to
the probability of a hike in January.
Mining sector contribution to GDP shrinks
Source: Stats SA, Nedbank
Mining sector trend ticks higher after 2014/H1 slump
Source: Nedbank Group Economic Unit
Manufacturing output ticks higher, as indicated by the Kagiso PMI, after difficult industrial action
Source: I-net, Nedbank

Currencies back to top
Business Banking FX | +27 11 535 4003 | Corporate FX | +2711 535 4002 | Institutional FX | +2711 535 4005
 The session opened with the rand appearing vulnerable and with few prospects of positive news. The local data releases were once again
unsurprisingly disappointing but measures from the PBOC to tighten lending criteria, although most likely temporary, brought the dollar
move to a halt. The rand recovered a significant portion of the previous day’s losses, managing to trade below 11.4000 after having touched
11.5735 on the day. This morning the rand is currently trading at 11.4250.
 On the international front, after an initial foray below the 1.2300 level the euro traded with a firmer bias and by the time of the close it had
managed a move to 1.2444. However, price action at those levels was unconvincing and this morning it has reverted to trade currently at
1.2392.The dollar continued its decline against the yen and this morning it is currently at 118.90.
 After having recovered to above the 1200.00 level yesterday, gold was resurgent and it is currently trading at 1232.15.Local data scheduled
for today CPI and retail sales, from France payrolls and industrial production, from the U.S. mortgage applications and monthly budget data.
 Yesterday the markets made use of the events on the day to take some profits on their long dollar positions, but the local focus will be
firmly on the rating review on Friday. Price action has been somewhat tricky as markets realise that the prevailing levels of liquidity are
incommensurate with the volumes currently and this will most likely remain the case going into year end.
 Possible trading range on the day in the rand 11.3500 to 11.5500
*Please note that the sign on the % change reflects the change on the headline number. The narrative indicates the trend direction over the month.
For trade in any of these currencies, contact our FX dealing desks
Majors Last price
%Δ
-1d
%Δ
MTD
%Δ
YTD
USD trend
GBPUSD 1.57 -0.03 0.22 -5.35 USD weakness
EURUSD 1.24 0.00 -0.47 -10.12 USD strength
USDJPY 118.88 -0.35 0.21 12.94 USD strength
USDAUD 1.20 -0.05 2.24 7.28 USD strength
Rand crosses Last price
%Δ
-1d
%Δ
MTD
%Δ
YTD
ZAR trend
USDZAR 11.42 -0.23 3.27 8.58 ZAR weakness
GBPZAR 17.91 -0.25 3.48 2.77 ZAR weakness
EURZAR 14.16 -0.22 2.78 -2.41 ZAR weakness
AUDZAR 9.50 -0.20 0.94 1.19 ZAR weakness
ZARJPY 10.40 -0.13 -2.96 4.06 ZAR weakness
African FX Last price
%Δ
-1d
%Δ
MTD
%Δ
YTD
ZAR trend
ZARMWK (Malaw ian kw acha) 42.67 0.22 -3.96 4.39 ZAR weakness
ZARBWP (Botsw ana pula) 0.83 0.49 -1.02 -0.70 ZAR weakness
ZARKES (Kenyan shilling) 7.92 0.20 -2.77 -3.46 ZAR weakness
ZARMUR (Mauritian rupee) 2.77 0.24 -2.58 -2.95 ZAR weakness
ZARNGN (Nigerian naira) 16.08 0.31 -0.31 5.71 ZAR weakness
ZARGHS (Ghanian cedi) 0.28 0.11 -2.90 24.65 ZAR weakness
ZARZMW (Zambian kw acha) 0.56 0.22 -2.26 5.56 ZAR weakness
Source: Bloomberg & Nedbank Capital T ime
Month
trend
Month
trend
Month
trend
2014/12/10 07:03
USDZAR
Source: Bloomberg, Nedbank
EUR/USD
Source: Bloomberg, Nedbank
$/R (close, high and low)
R 10.90
R 11.00
R 11.10
R 11.20
R 11.30
R 11.40
R 11.50
R 11.60
R 11.70
12/04 12/05 12/08 12/09 12/10
USDZAR $/R HIGH $/R LOW
€/$ (close, high, low)
$1.21
$1.22
$1.22
$1.23
$1.23
$1.24
$1.24
$1.25
$1.25
12/04 12/05 12/08 12/09 12/10
EURUSD EURUSD High EURUSD Low

Precious metals and oils back to top
 Bullion surged yesterday, just leading up to the New York session when the price rallied by $20/oz. Overnight, the price managed to sustain
the strength in the Asian session on the back of a generally weak dollar in yesterday’s session. In the medium term, we are likely to see the
price remain downbeat as safe haven and investment demand remain anaemic.
 Brent initially rose towards the $67/bbl. but this move was not sustained, and the price declined into the New York session. The supply glut
remains, and is unlikely to change given the increase in US shale oil production. Our target for Brent remains $60/bbl. upon which near term
support is likely to be held.
Commodities Last price
%Δ
-1d
%Δ
MTD
%Δ
YTD
Brent near future ($) 65.99 -1.27 -5.93 -40.44
Gold spot ($) 1 232.13 0.26 5.55 2.25
Platinum spot ($) 1 249.70 0.20 4.07 -9.00
Month
trend
2014/12/10 07:03
Platinum vs Gold
Source: Bloomberg
Brent Crude vs West Texas Intermediate
Source: Bloomberg
Platinum vs. Gold
$1 160.00
$1 170.00
$1 180.00
$1 190.00
$1 200.00
$1 210.00
$1 220.00
$1 230.00
$1 240.00
$1 250.00
$1 260.00
12/04 12/05 12/08 12/09 12/10
PLATINUM GOLD
Brent Crude vs West Texas Intermediate
$58.00
$60.00
$62.00
$64.00
$66.00
$68.00
$70.00
$72.00
12/04 12/05 12/08 12/09 12/10
BRENT WTI

Fixed income and interest rates back to top
Bond flow sales |+2711 535 4021 | Corporate Money Markets | +2711 535 4007 | Business Bank Money Markets | +2711 535 4006
 SAGBs opened auction day with R186 at 7.82% and quickly trading slightly stronger to print 7.79% before settling there at the time of
auction expiry. National Treasury cleared R750m R2032 at 8.33% , R800m R209 at 8.34% and R800m R2044 at 8.58%.
 The R2032 and the R209 cleared at market but the R2044 cleared 4 bps cheaper than market which in turn pushed back-end yields higher
and as a result the back-end of the curve closed the day 3 bps steeper. R186 sold-off to print as weak as 7.86% before attracting demand
and officially closed the day at 7.82%.
 ZAR had an extremely volatile day where the weak print was 11.5735 before recovering aggressively on the back of possible FDI flows
regarding SAA, and concluded the day around 11.4000. Weak local mining data also contributed negatively coupled with manufacturing
data which released in line with market expectations.
 Today all focus will be on local CPI data due out in mid-morning where we expect 5.8% to print , in line with market consensus and retail
sales data in early afternoon.
Bonds Last price
Δ
1d
Δ
MTD
Δ
YTD
% bps bps bps
R158-0.8 yrs 6.44 11.92 43.92
R203-2.8 yrs 6.75 2.37 34.67 -16.83
R208-6.3 yrs 7.37 1.80 27.20 -27.90
R186-12 yrs 7.80 0.37 20.07 -43.33
R2048-33.2 yrs 8.54 2.64 6.64 -64.96
US 10 yr 2.21 -0.46 4.44 -81.96
UK 10 yr 1.89 -3.72 -1.97 -37.52
German 10 yr 0.69 -3.93 -2.14 -64.49
Japan 10 yr 0.40 -3.58 -4.04 -45.48
Money Market Last price
Δ
1d
Δ
MTD
Δ
YTD
% bps bps bps
SA repo rate 5.75 0.00 0.00 75.00
SA prime rate 9.25 0.00 0.00 75.00
SA CPI (MTD = previous month) 5.90 0.00
SA 3m JIBAR 6.08 0.00 0.00 86.60
SA 3m NCD 6.08 -2.50 5.00 85.00
SA 6m NCD 6.75 0.00 7.50 110.00
SA 12m NCD 7.28 2.50 22.50 126.25
US 3m LIBOR 0.24 0.20 0.40 -0.85
UK 3m LIBOR 0.56 0.09 0.40 3.14
Japan 3m LIBOR 0.09 -0.05 -0.17 -3.81
Month
trend
Month
trend
2014/12/10 07:03
FRAs and Swaps Last price
Δ
1d
Δ
MTD
Δ
YTD
% bps bps bps
3X6 FRA 6.21 -1.00 10.00 85.00
6X9 FRA 6.43 -2.00 23.00 81.00
9X12 FRA 6.57 -3.00 30.00 57.00
18X21 FRA 7.02 0.00 42.00 8.00
SA 2yr Sw ap 6.63 0.30 28.20 51.00
SA 3yr Sw ap 6.85 0.40 34.70 21.50
SA 5yr Sw ap 7.18 -0.50 37.50 -18.00
SA 10yr Sw ap 7.78 -1.00 32.50 -46.00
SA 15yr Sw ap 8.17 0.50 33.00 -56.25
Spreads Last price
Δ
1d
Δ
MTD
Δ
YTD
% bps bps bps
2v10y - 1.15 1.30 -4.30 97.00
3v10y - 0.94 1.40 2.20 67.50
R186-R203 1.07 -1.99 -14.59 -26.49
R2048-R186 0.71 2.26 -13.44 -21.64
5y-R186 - 0.62 -0.87 17.43 25.33
10y-R186 - 0.01 -1.37 12.43 -2.67
15y-R186 0.36 0.13 12.93 -12.92
Month
trend
2014/12/10 07:03
Month
trend

Equities back to top
Cash equities | +2711 294 3221
South Africa
 The local market saw a selloff in line with other emerging markets as investors turned risk averse. The Top40 lost 1061 points to close down
-2.4%. All 3 major indices saw losses in excess of 2% with declines in NPN (-4.3%) weighing on the indi25. OML & INP underperforming in
the financial sector.
 Gains in gold counters did little to support a weak resource sector. IMP (-0.65%) released a trading update with the miner expecting profits
to be down at least 20%. Also making the news, ATT’s accelerated book build was well received with R640m being placed at R21.60. Value
traded at 5pm was around R19.2bn with the currency at R 11.40 vs. the USD
UK/Europe
 European markets took pain in Tuesday’s trade as fears around tighter lending rules in China spooked investors. The Yen strengthened while
gold climbed.
 Greek counters lagged in the region as fears of an early election sparked political concerns. Financial counters saw a selloff with Attica Bank
down -26%. Miners weren’t spared with BHP & Petrofac weighing on the FTSE100. Tesco also received no love with the supermarket
company cutting its full year profit forecast.
 Weaker export data out of Germany added further pressure with Adidas, Allianz, and Bayer all receiving broker downgrades.
USA
 Wall Street opened sharply lower but recovered most of its losses to close slightly in the red, the Nasdaq managed to advance.
 After being down as much as 218 points, the Dow closed just 51 points lower (-0.3%) with telecommunication services the hardest hit after
Verizon issued a profit warning. Gains in Apple & Amazon supported the Nasdaq with a stronger gold price lifting Newmont Mining and its
peers. Yum Brands came under pressure after the company said earnings will grow by 10% in 2015 while Krispy Kreme doughnuts dropped
after 3rd qtr results missed estimates.
Asia
 Losses extended in the region after China’s consumer inflation number eased to a 5 year low with a stronger Yen weighing on the Nikkei .
 Australian consumer sentiment weakened sending the ASX -0.23% lower with healthcare counters the laggard on the day after the
government will extend its cap on rebates to June 2018.
 Tencent lost ground on news its chairman reduced his stake in the company while a rebound in energy prices did little to lift energy
counters. Markets in Thailand are closed today for a holiday.
Developed Markets Last price
%Δ
-1d
%Δ
MTD
%Δ
YTD
Dow Jones 17 801.20 -0.29 -0.15 7.39
Nasdaq 4 766.47 0.54 -0.53 14.12
S&P 500 2 059.82 -0.02 -0.37 11.44
DJ Eurostoxx 50 3 162.77 -2.62 -2.71 1.73
DAX 9 793.71 -2.21 -1.87 2.53
CAC 4 263.94 -2.55 -2.88 -0.75
FTSE 6 529.47 -2.14 -2.87 -3.25
ASX200 5 268.90 -0.26 -0.83 -1.56
Nikkei 225 17 389.06 -2.38 -0.41 6.74
MSCI World 1 721.97 -0.26 -1.01 3.67
Emerging Markets Last price
%Δ
-1d
%Δ
MTD
%Δ
YTD
Hang Seng 23 446.43 -0.17 -2.26 0.60
Shanghai 2 867.55 0.39 6.89 35.52
Brazil Bovespa 50 193.47 -0.16 -8.28 -2.55
India - NSE 27 785.05 -0.04 -3.17 31.24
Russia Micex 1 475.22 -0.41 -3.81 -1.92
MSCI Emerging 965.41 -1.17 -3.91 -3.72
SA Indices Last price
%Δ
-1d
%Δ
MTD
%Δ
YTD
JSE All Share 48 556.55 -2.08 -2.71 4.97
Top 40 42 911.27 -2.41 -2.93 3.44
Resi 10 41 864.73 -2.15 -5.30 -17.92
Indi 25 60 354.28 -2.39 -2.19 10.78
Fini 15 15 263.29 -2.20 -2.35 19.75
Month
trend
Month
trend
Month
trend
2014/12/10 07:03

Equity derivatives back to top
Equity derivatives | +2711 535 4030
 The index market was dominated by small discounts throughout the session as futures selling led the market lower on the day. EFP markets
were quiet as attention turned to the roll markets trading between 355 and 366 in the Dec14/Mar15 ALSI market in the biggest roll market
size we’ve seen this contract so far. Volume on the day of 62 000 Dec14 ALSI futures contracts is decent, even when you strip out the 23 000
rolls traded on the day and leaves open interest in the same contract, lower at 156 000 contracts.
 The options session was fairly inactive with market makers focused on managing book risks following the sharp gapping down at the open.
The few prints we saw were all end user. The standouts were index protection plays. Clients rolled outright and put spreads to Mar15. We
also saw ALSI short fences across Mar15, Jun15 and Sep15 expiries.
Notable Option trade s
Sa fe x
Vola tility Contra c ts
Va lue of
Premium
R 0 0 0 's Open inte re st
DEC15 ALSI 43500P 19.30 5 565 166 944 5 565
DEC14 ALSI 47000P 17.24 2 946 104 005 4 634
DEC14 ALSI 45900P 18.37 2 956 71 987 3 371
DEC15 ALSI 52500C 16.78 6 682 40 145 3 341
MAR15 DTOP 9600P 21.78 6 000 15 636 6 000
SEP15 ALSI 43150P 20.04 500 12 723 500
Source : SAFEX
Inde x trade s Contra c ts
Va lue
R 0 0 0 's Open Inte re st
DEC14 ALSI 78 190 33 836 723 153 939
MAR15 ALSI 17 800 7 784 791 17 230
DEC14 DTOP 18 479 1 801 864 167 080
DEC15 ALSI 2 852 1 272 847 6 897
MAR15 DTOP 4 816 475 953 29 807
Source: SAFEX
Single stoc k Future s
Trade s Spot Contra c ts
Va lue
R 0 0 0 's Open Inte re st
DEC14 SOLQ 403.00 2 323 96 315 4 246
MAR15 SOLQ 403.00 1 750 74 134 2 841
DEC14 NPNQ 1 389.00 516 72 287 11 870
DEC14 MTNQ 218.14 3 183 69 858 26 649
DEC14 APNQ 381.50 1 650 64 472 7 070
DEC14 AGLQ 219.00 2 690 59 395 22 228
DEC14 FSRQ 48.75 10 855 53 687 81 168
DEC14 CFRQ 104.55 4 763 51 114 17 379
DEC14 SHPQ 152.00 2 966 45 987 40 493
MAR15 MTNQ 218.14 2 019 45 455 16 236
DEC14 OMLQ 34.20 10 892 37 344 22 195
MAR15 AGLQ 219.00 1 537 34 067 3 520
Source : SAFEX
Notable Open Inte re st - Inde x
Expiry Strike Open Inte re st
DEC14 DTOP 8030P 39 196
DEC14 DTOP 9260P 38 672
DEC14 DTOP 10850C 35 860
DEC14 DTOP 9040P 35 860
DEC14 DTOP 8300P 24 555
DEC14 DTOP 9000P 18 000
Source : SAFEX
Expiry Inde x Spot Ba sis BID Ba sis Offe r
DEC 14 ALSI 43 327 68 136
DEC 14 FINI 15 386 24 49
DEC 14 INDI 61 349 97 192
DEC 14 RESI 41 432 65 132
DEC 14 FINDI 65 578 103 205
DEC 14 DTOP 9 751 16 30
DEC 14 CTOP 23 117 37 73
Source : Nedbank Prime Services
Source : Nedbank Capital Equity Derivat ives
Contra c t Strike
P% of
Spot
Ca ll/Put Bid % prem Bid Vola tility
Offe r
Vola tility
Offe r % prem
DEC14 ALSI 38 600 90% P 0.00% 16.06% 20.56% 0.00%
DEC14 ALSI 40 750 95% P 0.01% 13.87% 18.37% 0.04%
DEC14 ALSI 42 900 100% P 0.65% 11.85% 16.35% 0.93%
DEC14 ALSI 42 900 100% C 0.84% 11.85% 16.35% 1.12%
DEC14 ALSI 45 050 105% C 0.00% 9.90% 14.40% 0.02%
DEC14 ALSI 47 200 110% C 0.00% 9.72% 14.22% 0.00%
Source : Nedbank Capital Equity Derivat ives
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
2014/12/01 2014/12/02 2014/12/03 2014/12/04 2014/12/05 2014/12/08 2014/12/09
DEC14 ALSI
Volume P% Change
153000
154000
155000
156000
157000
158000
159000
160000
161000
162000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2014/12/01 2014/12/02 2014/12/03 2014/12/04 2014/12/05 2014/12/08 2014/12/09
Open Interest
MAR 15 Open interest DEC 14 Open interest
Source: Bloomberg (All graphs)
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
22.00
24.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
22.00
24.00
2014/11/04 2014/11/11 2014/11/18 2014/11/25 2014/12/03
Sav i v s. Vix
VIX (Left Hand Side of the Graph) SAVI (Right Hand Side of the Graph)

Economics back to top
US
 Wholesale trade sales and inventories beat expectations, with inventories unchanged at September’s 0.4% m/m, ahead of forecasts of 0.2%.
Sales rose by 0.2% m/m in October, ahead of forecasts of 0.1%. Inventories rose by the most in 7 months as retailers stock up ahead of the
festive season.
 Inventories on hand are set to last 1.17 months – the lowest since September 2011, and indicates that retailers need to increase imports
and manufactures in order to keep up with demand.
 Inventories of durable goods, cars, furniture and electrical equipment all increased in line with sales. Petroleum inventories also rose as
producers anticipate an uptick in overall consumer demand in the coming months.
Synopsis: Continued economic growth is expected out of the US, with the Fed likely to hike by 2015/Q3. An uptick in consumer spending is
expected to offset the disinflationary pressures emanating from the lower global oil price. This will likely continue to drive growth higher in
2015, supporting expectations for a rate hike by the Fed.
UK
 Industrial production in the UK rose by 1.1% y/y in October, from 0.8% in September, below expectations of 1.8%. Manufacturing
production growth eased to 1.7% y/y from 2.2% in September, also significantly below forecasts of 3.2%.
 The sub-components that kept production upbeat were oil and gas, and mining and quarrying, while production of textiles, clothing and
footwear, pharmaceuticals, and electrical equipment contracted significantly.
 Consumer spending has been supported by consumer savings rather than income/wealth generation in the UK and this has been supporting
growth in the UK. We are likely to see consumer spending remain upbeat, especially since the labour market recovery persists, and an
uptick in incomes are imminent. This could be a supporting factor for future manufacturing growth.
Synopsis: The BOE is expected to continue debating a rate hike as the economy recovers and the labour trajectory improves. We anticipate a
rate hike by 2015/Q3 as the BOE would be mindful of the adverse effects of an overheating market. The key risk to this outlook remains
inflation which is benign in the developed world, and well below the BOE’s target of 2%.
China
 Chinese CPI disappointed, falling to 1.4% in November, from 1.6% previously, below forecasts of 1.6%. Prices of food, tobacco, alcohol,
transport, communication and housing all eased in November, reflective of the subdued demand environment. Only prices of clothing
ticked higher.
 PPI remained in contraction, falling by 2.7% in November, from -2.2% in October, worse than expectations of -2.4%. Prices of raw materials,
manufactured products, minerals and consumer goods all contracted further in November, weighed by subdued global and local demand as
well as falling oil and other commodity prices.
Synopsis: Downbeat inflation in China indicates consumer demand still remains subdued, in line with lower growth expectations. The PBOC
needs to provide more easing measures in order to spur inflation in the economy.
Japan
 Japanese PPI slowed to 2.7% y/y in November from 2.9% previously, beating forecasts of 2.6%.
 Prices of manufactured goods eased, while agricultural prices and prices of scrap continued to decline. In contrast, prices of utilities rose in
November, reflected by the slightly higher demand coming through since the start of the third quarter.
 Lower energy prices have been the main reason for the decline in PPI, as Japan imports close to 90% of its energy requirements.
Synopsis: The worst of the effects of the sales tax hike seem to have passed, however inflation is far below the BOJ's inflation target of 2%.
The BOJ is expected to keep monetary policy accommodative, with further stimulus measures likely, as the economy struggles to grow.

JSE performance back to top
Susan Correia | Scorreia@Nedbankcapital.co.za | +27 11 295 8227
Top40 constituents Last price
%Δ
-1d
%Δ
MTD
%Δ
YTD
AGL : Anglo American Plc 219.00 -2.15 -4.30 -4.37
AMS : Anglo American Platinum Ltd 339.50 -1.11 -8.86 -13.81
ANG : Anglogold Ashanti Ltd 101.24 3.00 2.48 -17.64
APN : Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Lt 381.50 -2.83 -4.63 41.97
ASR : Assore Ltd 149.61 -3.77 -17.08 -56.08
BGA : Barclays Af rica Group Ltd 178.50 -1.65 0.06 34.97
BIL : Bhp Billiton Plc 253.58 -2.50 -3.25 -21.71
BTI : British American Tobacco Plc 646.36 -2.86 -0.62 15.39
BVT : Bidvest Group Ltd 288.55 -1.01 -1.53 7.53
CCO : Capital & Counties Propertie 64.37 -2.10 -1.12 13.93
CFR : Financiere Richemont-Dep Rec 104.55 -2.66 1.33 -0.03
DSY : Discovery Ltd 108.00 -2.22 -3.14 27.81
EXX : Exxaro Resources Ltd 105.00 -1.81 -5.71 -28.31
FSR : Firstrand Ltd 48.75 -1.87 -1.91 35.83
GRT : Grow thpoint Properties Ltd 26.00 -1.63 -6.10 7.08
IMP : Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd 77.00 -0.65 -4.55 -37.40
INL : Investec Ltd 96.60 -3.40 -6.20 29.66
INP : Investec Plc 96.25 -3.75 -5.92 27.37
IPL : Imperial Holdings Ltd 180.45 -4.62 -9.78 -10.94
ITU : Intu Properties Plc 60.11 -3.36 -2.16 21.58
KIO : Kumba Iron Ore Ltd 242.74 -3.11 -5.81 -45.26
LHC : Life Healthcare Group Holdin 40.50 -2.17 -3.11 -3.25
MDC : Mediclinic International Ltd 93.30 -0.53 -0.84 22.76
MND : Mondi Ltd 187.79 -2.55 -0.11 4.50
MNP : Mondi Plc 188.22 -3.26 -0.53 3.88
MPC : Mr Price Group Ltd 216.88 0.05 -8.17 32.45
MTN : Mtn Group Ltd 218.14 -1.41 -0.01 0.52
NED : Nedbank Group Ltd 235.77 -1.83 -2.96 12.27
NPN : Naspers Ltd-N Shs 1 389.00 -4.29 -3.14 26.73
OML : Old Mutual Plc 34.20 -2.79 -1.24 4.30
REI : Reinet Investments Sa-Dr 25.16 -2.63 -2.29 24.62
REM : Remgro Ltd 235.00 -2.74 -7.06 13.08
RMH : Rmb Holdings Ltd 60.28 -3.18 -3.75 24.67
SAB : Sabmiller Plc 593.00 -2.12 -2.90 11.31
SBK : Standard Bank Group Ltd 139.50 -2.11 2.42 7.79
SHF : Steinhof f Intl Holdings Ltd 58.80 -2.24 1.03 31.55
SHP : Shoprite Holdings Ltd 152.00 -1.94 -10.33 -7.32
SLM : Sanlam Ltd 68.76 -1.41 -6.07 29.15
SOL : Sasol Ltd 403.00 -3.45 -12.76 -21.67
TBS : Tiger Brands Ltd 361.61 -0.93 -6.44 35.47
VOD : Vodacom Group Ltd 127.11 -1.82 -4.41 -4.43
WHL : Woolw orths Holdings Ltd 76.50 -0.34 -4.08 7.63
Month
trend
2014/12/10 07:03

Last day to trade back to top
Susan Correia | Scorreia@Nedbankcapital.co.za | +27 11 295 8227
Share code Share name Dividend / interest rate
11 December 2014
CND Conduit Capital Ltd dividend @ 5cps
TCP Transaction Capital Ltd dividend @ 10cps
VKE Vukile Prop Fund Ltd dividend @ 59.086cps
Source: JSE
Economic calendar back to top
Time Country Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
09-Dec
01:50 JN Money Stock M3 YoY Nov 2.60% 2.90% 2.60% --
11:30 SA Mining Production YoY Oct 2.10% -1.10% 5.30% 5.00%
11:30 UK Industrial Production YoY Oct 1.80% 1.10% 1.50% 0.80%
11:30 UK Manufacturing Production YoY Oct 3.20% 1.70% 2.90% 2.20%
13:00 SA Manufacturing Prod NSA YoY Oct 1.00% 2.20% 8.00% 8.60%
17:00 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Oct 0.10% 0.40% 0.30% 0.40%
17:00 US Wholesale Trade Sales MoM Oct -- 0.20% 0.20% 0.00%
10-Dec
01:50 JN PPI YoY Nov 2.70% 2.70% 2.90% --
03:30 CH PPI YoY Nov -2.40% -2.70% -2.20% --
03:30 CH CPI YoY Nov 1.60% 1.40% 1.60% --
07:00 JN Consumer Confidence Index Nov 39.5 -- 38.9 --
10:00 SA CPI YoY Nov 5.80% -- 5.90% --
10:00 SA CPI MoM Nov 0.00% -- 0.20% --
10:00 SA CPI Core YoY Nov 5.70% -- 5.70% --
10:00 SA CPI Core MoM Nov 0.20% -- 0.30% --
11:30 UK Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn Oct -£9580 -- -£9821 --
11:30 UK Trade Balance Oct -£2350 -- -£2838 --
13:00 SA Retail Sales Constant YoY Oct 2.10% -- 2.30% --
14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications 05-Dec -- -- -7.30% --
21:00 US Monthly Budget Statement Nov -$79.5B -- -- --
15-Dec CH New Yuan Loans Nov 660.0B -- 548.3B --
15-Dec CH Aggregate Financing RMB Nov 895.0B -- 662.7B --
15-Dec CH Money Supply M0 YoY Nov 4.00% -- 3.80% --
Source: Bloomberg

Contacts
Strategic Research
Mohammed Yaseen Nalla , CFA
Head: Strategic Research
Tel +27 11 294 5430
Mohammedn@Nedbankcapital.co.za
Reezwana Sumad
Treasury: Economic Analyst
Tel +27 11 294 1753
ReezwanaS@Nedbankcapital.co.za
Equities – Institutional Cash Equities and Prime Broking
Susan Correia
Cash Equities: Sales and Execution
Tel +27 11 294 8227
Scorreia@Nedbankcapital.co.za
Marc Baulackey
Cash Equities: Sales and Execution
Tel +27 11 535 4030
MarcB@Nedbankcapital.co.za
Gciza Nkosi
Equity Derivatives: Sales and Execution
Tel +27 11 535 4030
Gcizan@Nedbankcapital.co.za
FX Sales – Corporate and Business Banking
FX Corporate Desk
Tel +27 11 535 4002 (JHB)
Tel +27 31 327 3000 (DBN)
Tel +27 21 413 9300 (CPT)
FX Business Banking Desk
Tel +27 11 535 4003
Ross Meredith
Head: FX Sales
Tel +27 11 294 4511
Rossm@Nedbankcapital.co.za
Fixed Income – Sales and Structuring
Gareth Robertson
Institutional Flow Sales
Tel +27 11 535 4021
GarethRo@Nedbankcapital.co.za
Vanessa Pillay
Institutional Sales and Structuring
Tel +27 11 294 4421
Vanessapil@Nedbankcapital.co.za
Money Markets
MM: Corporate Desk
Tel +27 11 535 4007 (JHB)
Tel +27 31 327 3000 (DBN)
Tel +27 21 413 9300 (CPT)
MM: Business Banking
Tel +27 11 535 4006
MM: Trading and institutional
Tel +27 11 535 4008 (JHB)

Note on market data
 Market prices as per either last market close, or if open, at the time of capturing this data. % change is calculated using this price on the prior day's close.
 The time of capturing the data is around 07:00 SA time on the day on which the note is released.
 Blank spaces are as a result of unavailable data from Bloomberg, and most typically due to a market being closed for a particular day.
 % changes greater than or equal to 1% are coloured green while % changes less than or equal to 1% are coloured red.
Source: Bloomberg, Safex, as well as other sources stated, while calculations of periodic % changes are by Nedbank Capital.
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Daily market commentary 10122014

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Daily market commentary 10122014