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The Effects of Early Medicaid
Expansions in California on
Inpatient Utilization of Safety Net
Hospitals
Peter Cunningham, Ph.D.
Department of Health Behavior and Policy
Virginia Commonwealth University
Acknowledgements
Co-authors:
Lindsay M. Sabik, Ph.D.,
Ali Bonakdar, PharmD, M.P.H.,
Virginia Commonwealth University
Funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation,
State Health Access Reform Evaluation initiative
What is the Effect of Expanding Medicaid on
Inpatient Utilization at Safety Net Hospitals?
Improves payer mix -- Medicaid admissions
increase, while uninsured admissions decrease
Reduces the proportion of inpatient admissions that
are “preventable”
Possible “cherry-picking” of healthier Medicaid
patients by non-safety net hospitals
California’s “Bridge to Reform”
Expanded coverage through the Low Income
Health Program (LIHP) beginning in July, 2011
Eligibility for adults up to 200% of poverty, but
eligibility varied across counties
700,000 persons enrolled in LIHP by end of 2013
Importance for Safety Net Hospitals
Pending reductions in Medicaid DSH assume
increase in insured patients, fewer uninsured
patients that require subsidized care
Newly insured patients will have more options to
get care at non-safety net hospitals
Payment and delivery system reforms changing
patterns of care utilization at hospitals
Research strategy
Examine changes in inpatient utilization in
California between 2010 and 2013
Compare changes to three neighboring states
that did not expand coverage (AZ, NV, WA)
Compare changes at safety net hospitals to
changes at non-safety net hospitals
Data
Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project
(HCUP) State Inpatient Databases
Inpatient Data from California Office of
Statewide Health Planning and Development
American Hospital Association Annual Survey
Key Methods
Safety net hospitals defined as those with either “high
market share” of uninsured patients or “high burden” of
uninsured.
Include only hospitals in metropolitan areas
Employed difference-in-differences analysis
Compare the “pre-LIHP” period (before July 1, 2011) to:
• First post-implementation period (7/1/11 to 9/30/12)
• Second post-implementation period (10/1/12 to 12/31/13)
Medicaid Inpatient Admissions at Safety Net Hospitals
607
527
612
454
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
California Comparison states
Quarterlyadmissions
Pre-LIHP Post-LIHP
Uninsured Inpatient Admissions at Safety Net Hospitals
187
170176
218
0
50
100
150
200
250
California Comparison states
Quarterlyadmissions
Pre-LIHP Post-LIHP
Quarterly inpatient admissions
52 53
[VALUE]*
83*
75*
[VALUE]*
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
SAFETY NET HOSPITALS NON-SAFETY NET HOSPITALS
Quarterlyadmissions
Change in second post-implementation period relative to comparison states
All Medicaid Uninsured
*Change from pre-LIHP period is statistically significant at .05 level
Percent of admissions that are uninsured
10.2
3.7
9.1*
[VALUE]*
[VALUE]*
[VALUE]*
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
SAFETY NET HOSPITALS NON-SAFETY NET HOSPITALS
Percentofadmissionsuninsured
Change in second post-implementation period relative to comparison states
Pre-LIHP Post-LIHP 1 Post-LIHP 2
*Change from Pre-LIHP period is statistically significant at .05 level
Quarterly preventable admissions
-6
-3
13
[VALUE]*
[VALUE]*
-18*
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
SAFETY NET HOSPITALS NON-SAFETY NET HOSPITALS
Quarterlypreventableadmissions
Change in second post-implementation period relative to comparison states
All Medicaid Uninsured
*Change from pre-LIHP period is statistically significant at .05 level
Other Key Findings
Acuity level of Medicaid admissions increased, while acuity
of uninsured decreased.
Acuity level of Medicaid admissions increased more at safety
net hospitals
Preventable admissions for uninsured patients decreased to
a greater extent at safety net hospitals
So far, no evidence that residual uninsured becoming
increasingly concentrated at safety net hospitals
Policy implications
Will change in payer mix be enough to offset
potential loss of Medicaid DSH funds?
How will payment and delivery reforms affect key
assumptions about reducing public subsidies to
safety net hospitals?
Will Medicaid payment levels be sufficient for
Medicaid patients that have higher acuity?

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Cunningham APPAM slides 11 09 15

  • 1. The Effects of Early Medicaid Expansions in California on Inpatient Utilization of Safety Net Hospitals Peter Cunningham, Ph.D. Department of Health Behavior and Policy Virginia Commonwealth University
  • 2. Acknowledgements Co-authors: Lindsay M. Sabik, Ph.D., Ali Bonakdar, PharmD, M.P.H., Virginia Commonwealth University Funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, State Health Access Reform Evaluation initiative
  • 3. What is the Effect of Expanding Medicaid on Inpatient Utilization at Safety Net Hospitals? Improves payer mix -- Medicaid admissions increase, while uninsured admissions decrease Reduces the proportion of inpatient admissions that are “preventable” Possible “cherry-picking” of healthier Medicaid patients by non-safety net hospitals
  • 4. California’s “Bridge to Reform” Expanded coverage through the Low Income Health Program (LIHP) beginning in July, 2011 Eligibility for adults up to 200% of poverty, but eligibility varied across counties 700,000 persons enrolled in LIHP by end of 2013
  • 5. Importance for Safety Net Hospitals Pending reductions in Medicaid DSH assume increase in insured patients, fewer uninsured patients that require subsidized care Newly insured patients will have more options to get care at non-safety net hospitals Payment and delivery system reforms changing patterns of care utilization at hospitals
  • 6. Research strategy Examine changes in inpatient utilization in California between 2010 and 2013 Compare changes to three neighboring states that did not expand coverage (AZ, NV, WA) Compare changes at safety net hospitals to changes at non-safety net hospitals
  • 7. Data Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) State Inpatient Databases Inpatient Data from California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development American Hospital Association Annual Survey
  • 8. Key Methods Safety net hospitals defined as those with either “high market share” of uninsured patients or “high burden” of uninsured. Include only hospitals in metropolitan areas Employed difference-in-differences analysis Compare the “pre-LIHP” period (before July 1, 2011) to: • First post-implementation period (7/1/11 to 9/30/12) • Second post-implementation period (10/1/12 to 12/31/13)
  • 9. Medicaid Inpatient Admissions at Safety Net Hospitals 607 527 612 454 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 California Comparison states Quarterlyadmissions Pre-LIHP Post-LIHP
  • 10. Uninsured Inpatient Admissions at Safety Net Hospitals 187 170176 218 0 50 100 150 200 250 California Comparison states Quarterlyadmissions Pre-LIHP Post-LIHP
  • 11. Quarterly inpatient admissions 52 53 [VALUE]* 83* 75* [VALUE]* -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 SAFETY NET HOSPITALS NON-SAFETY NET HOSPITALS Quarterlyadmissions Change in second post-implementation period relative to comparison states All Medicaid Uninsured *Change from pre-LIHP period is statistically significant at .05 level
  • 12. Percent of admissions that are uninsured 10.2 3.7 9.1* [VALUE]* [VALUE]* [VALUE]* 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 SAFETY NET HOSPITALS NON-SAFETY NET HOSPITALS Percentofadmissionsuninsured Change in second post-implementation period relative to comparison states Pre-LIHP Post-LIHP 1 Post-LIHP 2 *Change from Pre-LIHP period is statistically significant at .05 level
  • 13. Quarterly preventable admissions -6 -3 13 [VALUE]* [VALUE]* -18* -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 SAFETY NET HOSPITALS NON-SAFETY NET HOSPITALS Quarterlypreventableadmissions Change in second post-implementation period relative to comparison states All Medicaid Uninsured *Change from pre-LIHP period is statistically significant at .05 level
  • 14. Other Key Findings Acuity level of Medicaid admissions increased, while acuity of uninsured decreased. Acuity level of Medicaid admissions increased more at safety net hospitals Preventable admissions for uninsured patients decreased to a greater extent at safety net hospitals So far, no evidence that residual uninsured becoming increasingly concentrated at safety net hospitals
  • 15. Policy implications Will change in payer mix be enough to offset potential loss of Medicaid DSH funds? How will payment and delivery reforms affect key assumptions about reducing public subsidies to safety net hospitals? Will Medicaid payment levels be sufficient for Medicaid patients that have higher acuity?