This document summarizes a presentation given to the Institute of Asset Management Global Conference on building critical infrastructure resilience. It discusses that infrastructure needs to provide critical services under both ordinary and extraordinary circumstances. It outlines the Resilience Shift initiative which aims to adopt a socio-technical systems approach to infrastructure and make resilience concepts practical. There are three workstreams focusing on how to implement, value, and scale up resilience practices. The presentation argues that asset management should take a systems view, consider lifecycles and value chains, and explicitly include contingency planning and resilience analysis in decisions. However, decisions are not routinely made based on enhancing infrastructure system resilience.

1. Critical infrastructure resilience:
what’s it worth, how do we make it
happen?
www.resilienceshift.org
info@resilienceshift.org
@resilienceshift
The Resilience Shift

2. Presentation to the Institute of
Asset Management Global
Conference, Day 3
27th June 2018
Dr Juliet Mian, Technical Director, the Resilience Shift
(Associate Director, Arup Infrastructure Advisory)
www.resilienceshift.org
info@resilienceshift.org
@resilienceshift
The Resilience Shift

3. Overview
1. The Resilience Shift – why, what, how?
• Lloyd’s Register Foundation & Arup
2. Our areas of focus
3. What does this mean for Asset Management?
4. Investing in resilience – where are we, and where should we
be?
5. How to scale it up
6. As asset managers, what is your biggest ‘ask’?

4. Lloyd’s Register Foundation’s charitable mission:
for public benefit
1. Enhance the safety of life and property:
To secure for the benefit of the community high technical standards of design, manufacture,
construction, maintenance, operation and performance for the purpose of enhancing the
safety of life and property at sea, on land and in the air
2. Advancement of Public Education:
The advancement of public education including within the transportation industries and any
other engineering and technological disciplines
4

5. The Foundation’s high-level strategy
Four Strategic Themes
• Promoting safety and public
understanding of risk
• Advancement of skills and education
• Supporting excellent scientific
research
• Accelerating the application of
research
Four Research Funding Priorities
• Structural integrity and systems
performance
• Resilience engineering
• Human and social factors
• Emergent technologies
5

6. Arup as host institution
Dr Nancy Kete, Executive Director

7. The safety and well-being of
billions of people depends on
infrastructure systems that can
deliver critical services … that
can provide, protect or connect
us - whatever the future has in
store.
Why?

8. What?
A global initiative to build resilience within and
between key critical infrastructure sectors.
We want to re-focus professional decision-
making practice from treating infrastructure
as an unconnected asset to a socio-technical
system.
A socio-technical infrastructure system must
provide services under both ordinary and
extraordinary circumstances.

9. Our vision
Bridges in Workington, Cumbria, destroyed during the 2009 floods, resulting in one fatality and significant disruption
Engineered
structures
and
infrastructure
will be not
only safer but
better.

10. Decisions made along the
value chain will account
for how critical
infrastructure contributes
to the resilience of the
larger socio-technical-
ecological system.

11. Energy Systems 2035
www.arup.com
Critical infrastructure
will be planned,
designed, delivered and
operated to serve
communities (protect,
connect, provide) under
ordinary and
extraordinary
circumstances.
Energy Systems 2035 www.arup.com

12. Expected Outcomes

13. Expected Outcomes
Common
understanding
across sectors
Use of
integrated
systems
approaches
Adoption of
tools to
value
resilience
Resilience
concepts in
education
Adoption of
transformativ
e technologies
Adoption of
resilience-
based design

14. Three workstreams
1. How to “do” resilience
• To accelerate the adoption of resilience theories in practice.
• To make it tangible, practical and relevant
• To provide direction for dealing with the volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity of the world.
2. How to value resilience
• How much does resilience matter?
• To whom?
• How do we know?
3. How to scale-up resilience practices so they become business as usual
• Working in different sectors to accelerate theory to practice
• Applying resilience practice within and between critical infrastructure sectors
• Incentivising change in practice

15. How?

16. How?
• Projects
• Investments
• Round tables
• Events
• Ideas pipeline
• Outputs

17. A value-driven approach

18. So what? In the context of Asset Management
• Ageing and deteriorating assets
• Interconnected systems
• Extreme weather events and climate change
• Long life (and short life) assets and uncertain future
• Existing and new technologies (opportunities and challenges)
• Humans in the system
• Changing customer expectations
• Tension between resilience and efficiency/productivity

19. So what? In the context of Asset Management
• Ageing and deteriorating assets
• Interconnected systems
• Extreme weather events and climate change
• Long life assets and uncertain future
• Humans in the system
• New technologies (opportunities and challenges)
• Changing customer expectations
• Tension between resilience and efficiency/productivity
“Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
But certainty is an absurd one.” (Voltaire)

20. So what?
A systems view
Humans in the system
A lifecycle approach
Value chain concepts
Focus on the service that assets and systems deliver
Contingency planning and resilience analysis are considered
X Decisions are not routinely made based on the need to
enhance resilience of our infrastructure systems

21. Challenges
• Resilience of what, to what?
• How ‘resilient’ is good enough? How can we measure it?
• Competing demands on limited funds
• Legacy design

22. Infrastructure system-of-systems
The Future of National
Infrastructure: A system-of-
systems approach,
Cambridge University Press

23. A tiered approach for tools and models
Thanks to Igor Linkov
Tier I
Screening models or indexes to identify
easy improvements and guide focus of
further analysis
Tier II
Detailed models using decision analysis
to prioritize system performance and
investments
Tier III
Complex modelling of interactions
between sub-systems and using robust
scenario analysis
Decrease
resources,
capital
expenditures
Increase
model
complexity,
data needs
Resilience Tiered Approach

24. Transformative technology

25. Smart infrastructure informing and creating
resilience….
BBC

26. Smart infrastructure causing fragility….

27. Valuing resilience
efficiency resilience
Image Source: Dino Hristopoulos/Creative Commons

28. Valuing resilience
efficiency resilience
reduce waste
lean
just-in time
productivity
slack
diversity
back-up
flexibility
adaptability
alternatives
optimisation
centralised
decision-making
self-
organisation
profit
growth
critical
functionality

29. How do we justify the value of resilience?
ordinary extraordinary
short term long term
known unknown
system boundariesindividual assets
direct costs indirect costs
tangible costs avoided costs
design assumptions uncertain and
dynamic future

30. From…

31. From…

32. Bostick et al., 2018
Thanks to Dr Paul Smith, Arup
To…

33. Thanks to Igor Linkov
Bostick et al., 2018
To…

34. ‘Understanding the Landscape’
www.resilienceshift.org
info@resilienceshift.org
@resilienceshift
The Resilience Shift

35. My questions to you….

36. The asset management community
A systems view
A lifecycle approach
Value chain concepts
Focus on the service that assets and systems deliver
Contingency planning and resilience analysis explicitly
covered
Humans in the system
X Decisions are not routinely made based on the need to
enhance resilience of our infrastructure systems

37. because…
? Decisions driven by cost-efficiency
? Lowest lifecycle cost (not compatible with VUCA world)
? Balancing shareholder value and end-users
? Insufficient evidence of the value of resilience
? Top down mandate not there
? Who pays vs who benefits
? CBA incompatible with resilience
? Haven’t got the tools or processes

38. To our final challenge – how to scale it up…
• Do you have the tools you need to include resilience in
your decision making?
• Do you know how to value resilience (and who
benefits)?
• What do you need to embrace ‘a resilience shift’?
• What are the levers?
• What needs to change?
• Who has the greatest influence?

39. Thank you
www.resilienceshift.org
info@resilienceshift.org
juliet.mian@arup.com
@resilienceshift
The Resilience Shift