This report provides recommendations for scheduling security officers at properties owned by a client based on an analysis of crime data from 2001-2017 in Chicago. It finds that Wards 27, 3, and 4 experience the highest crime, with Ward 27 the primary focus. Crime peaks from May-September and Friday-Sunday. Theft and battery are most common. It recommends a seasonal staff that fluctuates based on time of day and week, with extra security in Wards 27 and 3 focusing on streets, apartments, and sidewalks from 1-2pm and 10pm-8am. Social media could also help prevent crime.

1. Crimes Project
ACC637 Winter 2018
Teri Grossheim, Lisa Kimbrough-Carr, Brinda Patel, Keman Wang, Michael Cody
Introduction
This report contains recommendations for scheduling security officers in properties owned by the
client. The goal is to provide appropriate protection against violent and property crimes for the properties
owned in the most cost effective manner. The scope of the analysis covers all major crimes occurring in
several wards during 2001 through 2017 reported to the Chicago Police Department. Crime data was
matched with the Chicago Ward where the client has property in order to understand how crime incidents
correlate with redacted addresses provided. This report contains four sections including an executive
summary, outlined results, and finally recommendations for scheduling security. An appendix at the end
of this report contains raw data used in this analysis.
Executive Summary
These properties present an excellent investment opportunity. After analyzing the past ten years
of data, it has been uncovered cost saving opportunities and strategies for value creation. It appears many
of the properties are located in Wards 27, 3, and 4. Of these three wards, Ward 27 is the highest crime
area . This makes investing in security slightly less complicated, since Ward 27 is of primary focus. It will
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be important to allocate security there while less frequent security would be needed for wards with fewer
amounts of properties such as Ward 21.
Results
The approach was to examine crime in Chicago for all wards during 2001-2017 to learn the
overall factors associated with Crime in Chicago and then reexamine those factors by ward to understand
the unique conditions affecting areas surrounding the client’s properties. IDEA and Stata software as well
as The City of Chicago Crime Portal were used to analyze data. The factors examined could impact
security scheduling. The first condition examined was crime by month. Crime in Chicago follows a
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Appendix: Ward / No. of Records

2. cyclical pattern with the greatest amount occurring between May and September per the graphs from data
provided as well as from the City of Chicago Crime Portal.
​Crimes - 2001 to present – Dashboard
Crime incidences sharply decreased after 10:00 pm and increased after 8:00 am. However,
homicides peaked from 11:00 pm until 3:00 am. Crime is committed fairly evenly throughout the week
for crime in general. However, Friday through Sunday was the most prevalent time for the violent crimes
of homicide, criminal sexual assault and battery.
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3. Crime is committed fairly evenly throughout the week for crime in general. However, Friday through
Sunday was the most prevalent time for the violent crimes of homicide, criminal sexual assault and
battery.
Crime location was identified based on building type, street parking lot as well as locations within
buildings such as porch, stairwell and lobby. The most prevalent location of all crime in Chicago is street
at 26.64%. Other areas of concern to the client are elevator - .39%, parking lot – 2.87%, sidewalk –
9.97%, apartment – 10% and alley. These locations will be further examined by crime type and ward.
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4. High crime wards such as 27. 4, and 3 were given extra focus while reviewing trends over ten- and
five-year periods.
In the overall analysis, a dataset was used containing almost three million observations. The
graphs below provide an overview of this dataset, showing the high crime wards of 27, 4, and 3 over time
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.
In latter year trends, Wards 2, 3, 28, and 24 revealed high crime incident numbers. While Ward 27
showed consistent data over time Wards 28, 2, and 3 also demonstrated considerable activity. Since Ward
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​tabulate Ward Year if Ward <=49 (Stata)
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5. 27 is a focused area for security recommendations, nearby Ward 28 should be included with guard
coverage.
For Wards 1 through 4, the team focused on the five most recent years of data from 2013 through
2017 . The data revealed that out of
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these four wards, Ward 2 had the highest
crime incidents across this five year
period, peaking in 2017 at 11,420
incidents. Ward 3 had the next highest
rate across the five year period, peaking
at 8,317 in 2013. Wards 1 and 4 had less
incidents across the same five-year
period and 2016 seemed to have the least amount of incidents overall as compared to the other four years.
Next, the team explored the type of crime and amount between the same five-year period.
Crime trends of the same four wards also offered interesting results. Theft and battery were the
two most common crime types between 2013-2017 . Narcotics and assault crimes seem to be the two
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additional crime types that are common in Wards 1 through 4. While theft is a serious offense, battery
involves physical safety of a person and as a result, it will be included in recommendations for security
personnel coverage, especially in Ward 3. Other crimes of substantial consideration include burglary,
criminal damage, robbery, and motor vehicle theft. Deceptive practice and motor vehicle theft also have
noticeable numbers in the analysis. In addition to battery, assault includes physical safety of a person and
will also be included in the recommendation section for security personnel coverage. Consequently, the
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​tabulate Ward Year if Ward <= 4 (Stata)
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​tabulate Primary_Type if Ward==[1,2,3,4] | Year >=2013 (Stata)
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6. average time these crimes took place across all four wards were between 1 p.m. - 2 p.m., which will also
be included in security coverage in the final recommendations .
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When graphing ten-year historical crime data in the city, there is a clear weather pattern
associated with crime. In January and February, crime tends to be relatively low, accelerating in April and
May to a July peak. From July through the end of the year, the graph slopes downward indicating less
crime as the temperature decreases. This proves to be a benefit to your firm as fewer security guards will
be needed in the colder months. Perhaps seasonal staff can help in the summer for a discounted “seasonal
employee” type rate. The weather relationship holds true for our biggest concern, Ward 27.
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​summarize admithour if Ward==[1,2,3,4] | Year >=2013 (Stata)
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7. Ward 27, where most of the properties are located, is important since property crimes are on the
low end of total crimes in the neighborhood according to our graph below of historical crime. Arson
comprises an extremely low percentage of total neighborhood crime, meaning the crime occurring in this
neighborhood is less likely to cause damage,
costing money for repair. However, violent
crime such as battery is quite high in Ward
27 and must be addressed but perhaps is
also presents an opportunity to invest in low
value properties.
Recommendations
There are several recommendations to improve security for these areas and properties. The most
common day for a crime to occur, according to the city’s data, was during the weekend. The investment
firm should consider having a smaller staff during the week and slightly increasing the staff on the
weekends. The staff can be reduced during the weekday during the hours of 4:00 am until 8:00 am.
Devices should be installed to restrict access to stairways. Much of the crime in Chicago as well as in the
area surrounding the client’s property occurs on the street which is outside of the client’s jurisdiction.
The client can install cameras to monitor the perimeter of property and have security perform periodic
perimeter and parking lot patrols from 10:00 pm until 8:00 a.m.
A seasonal, hourly staff which fluctuates in staff by time and day of the week, strategically spread
over the properties’ words in relation to level of crime could drastically reduce costs and make this a
profitable endeavor. Expense analysis is important but also consider future value. Another factor of
interest when determining the expected cost of security is time of day. Certainly security will be needed
24 hours per day, however, we believe you can save money by reducing the number of security guards on
duty in the early morning hours. As shown below, a lower staff may be maintained each day between 5
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8. a.m. and 7 a.m. With the data presented in results section, the peak time between 1 p.m. - 2 p.m. should be
considered for security coverage in Wards 2 and 3.
Even more specifically in Wards 27 and 3, there were significant findings regarding the location
of crime incidents. This data provided accurate location information for security personnel utilization. It’s
recommended placing security personnel to patrol the streets, apartment complexes, residential areas, and
sidewalks of Wards 27 and 3 . Perhaps this can be allocated to two different security personnel teams,
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street (vehicle, foot, bicycle) and then residential areas containing families and apartments, patrolling with
vehicles. Social media has also become popular tools for crime prevention, especially the use of Twitter
and Facebook . It’s recommended either creating new accounts for both of these wards and using
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hashtags, or another alternative is to leverage the security personnel’s company account and also using
hashtags, such as #ward27 and #ward3. Ward 28 also reflected similar location trends .
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Given this data, it’s recommended funding security that is at a reasonable price point. It’s
recommended that a seasonal, hourly staff which fluctuates in quantity by time and day of the week,
strategically spread over the properties’ location in relation to level of crime could drastically reduce costs
and make this a profitable endeavor. Expense analysis is also important as well as considering future
value.
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​tabulate Location_Description if Ward == 27 | Year >=2013
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​www.nnw.org/publication/social-media-and-crime-prevention
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​tabulate Location_Description if Ward == 28 | Year >=2013
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9. Appendix
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10. 9

11. 10

12. Ward 27
Ward 3
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13. Ward 28
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