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Commercial Aviation: outlook and scenarios
J U N E 3 r d , 2 0 2 0
COVID-19
Copyright @ 2020 Bain & Company. All rights reserved.
Any use of this material without specific permission of Bain & Company is strictly prohibited
2200327 COVID-19 Fact Pack_v1 ( ...NYC
Context for these materials
• COVID-19 is a humanitarian crisis and a global challenge. In this interconnected world, we have seen the virus spread
rapidly, and we are still gathering information to understand both its cause and its impact
• We are grateful for the businesses, governments, non-profits, and individuals around the world that are working to
protect those that are sick or in danger of becoming so and “flatten the curve”
• There is a lot that is still unknown about COVID-19; these materials are an attempt to shed light on what we know so
far to help businesses make informed decisions
– The top priority for all businesses is to protect the safety and health of employees and customers, for which there are WHO, CDC, and
other national guidelines
– Bain is not an expert on epidemiology and containment policies, however given our 45+ years of experience advising companies during both
economic booms and busts, we are committed to spreading accurate and timely information to reduce the unknowns for businesses
and business leaders
• Our focus is to enable companies to make rapid and practical decisions; with a global pandemic that is rapidly
spreading and changing, now is not the time for detailed decision making; the need for speed and the right directional
strategy outweighs the need to get intricate details right, and we are committed to helping business leaders navigate the
path forward
Partner, Member of AM&S,
M&I, South America
Kai Grass
Our
team
INTRODUCING
Partner, Head of Airlines and
Private Equity, South America
Andre Castellini
Manager, Member of M&I,
South America
Felipe Cammarata
Consultant, Member of
Aerospace & Defense, EMEA
Matteo Marazzi
What are
your top of mind
questions?
A C C E S S Q & A F R O M T O O L B A R
T Y P E T H E Q U E S T I O N A N D P R E S S E N T E R
Presentation Q & A
20 min40 min
To submit a question
during the presentation,
click the “Q&A” button
In the interest of time,
I will be collecting your
questions and saving
them until the
presentation is finished
for today
KEY TOPIC S
Developing
Airline
demand
scenarios
02
COVID-19
outlook and
the Aviation
industry
01
Looking
forward
(and Q&A)
0403
Impact on
commercial
Aircraft
industry
for today
KEY TOPIC S
01
COVID-19 outlook and the
Aviation industry
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Restore “new normal”
Heavy
mitigation
Containment/
light mitigation
Deflection
from
pre-crisis
baseline
Blackout
“crisis”
phase
Post-crisis
recovery
This point
varies by
country
Preliminary estimate
is 40-50% deflection
This point will
vary by
epidemiological
course and
socio-political
judgments
Preliminary
estimate is
5-20%
deflection
Likely dependent
on a permanent
medical intervention
or the attainment of
herd immunity
Dependent on
timing of (3) and (5):
roughly 5-10%
deflection
1
2
4
5 6
Brownout
“sustain”
phase
3
The recovery shape will depend on the overall epidemiology and economic recovery;
we can think of three phases…
Source: Bain Macro Trends Group analysis, April 2020
I L L U S T R A T I V E
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Different priorities arise from each phase of the COVID-19 crisis
How do I lead and manage an unprecedented amount of change?
How do I leverage the learning from planned and unplanned “experiments”
Accelerate
through recovery
Retool
for new worldProtect and ensure continuity
How does the industry evolve
and how do I adapt value
propositions, capabilities and
ways of working?
How do I quickly mobilize
people, re-establish
customer relevance, and
reactivate supply chains?
How do I ensure the safety
of my people and protect
the business?
How do I manage a cascade
of operating challenges for
an uncertain duration?
How are we relevant to our customers, employees, shareholders, and community?
How should our purpose, values, and brand guide the decisions we make?
Business
cycle
W H A T
H O W
W H Y
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While COVID-19 emergency worldwide is tapering off, it is leaving a heavy mark on
global economies whose consequences still need to be figured out completely
Source: Johns Hopkins University, CDC, WHO, Bain Macro Trends Group analysis
Most developed countries are beginning to see a decline in fatalities …
A S O F M A Y 2 6 T H
~5.6M
Confirmed
cases
~351K
Confirmed
fatalities
March May
…although some
have reported
recent upticks
April
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The SARS hospitalizations metric suggests Brazil may have reached new cases
peak, but additional waves are possible
Note: Source: Brazilian Ministry of Health – Public Health Emergency Operations Center
Epidemiological
Week
Hospitalizations due to SARS per epidemiological week
(k# cases; week of the beginning of symptoms)
Weeks that
are likely still
incomplete on
the reports
First wave of
exponential growth
Contamination curve
slowdown after
governmental
measures are applied
Increase of contamination
due to virus spread to the
countryside and smaller
cities
B R A Z I L I A N P E R S P E C T I V E A S O F M A Y 2 5 T H
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In Brazil impact will be different by Region, with North and East being the most
impacted from an economic and epidemiologic point of view
• > 28% economy based on industries with high
share of extractive mining, projected to grow in 2020
• > 10% of region economy is based on agriculture
High epidemiological impact
Low economic impact
North
• ~10% of total GDP based on Tourism, sector
that will suffer a major blow
• ~11% of GDP based on commerce
• ~42% of total revenue based on fiscal
transfers that will be reinforced by federal
government measures
• >27% of GDP based on agribusiness; strong soy harvest and high USD
will keep good performance in 2020
• Other sectors in the region are highly connected to agribusiness
High epidemiological impact
High economic impact
Midwest
Northeast
Southeast
Low epidemiological impact
Low economic impact
High epidemiological impact
Average to High economic impact
• Highly diversified economy means Southeast
region should have a significant impact
Epidemiological impact
High Medium Low
South
Low epidemiological impact
Average economic impact
• 20% based on industrials, largest dependence on manufacture
industries (such as furniture, textiles, clothing and footwear), severely
due to pandemic
• Agriculture also plays an important role, but weather lead to crop
losses in 2020 (47% loss of soybean harvest in RS)
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Airlines are likely to be one of the last industries to emerge from COVID-19 induced
crisis, when they will, the circumstances will be far from feeling “familiar”
Source: Lit research, Bain analysis
First to reach new normal Last to reach new normal
Consumer
Electronics
Real
Estate
Advanced
Manufacturing
Oil and
Gas Automotive
Luxury,
apparel
and beauty
products Hotels Airlines
Sports
events and
concerts Cruises
No or limited crowding
More essential spending
Less regulation due to COVID-19
Substantial crowding
More discretionary spending
More regulation due to COVID-19
Cross-border transmission risk
I L L U S T R A T I V EN O N - E X H A U S T I V E
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Australia: $430M package
Airlines expect to fall ~$310 B short of revenues in 2020: governments have started
pouring financial support into an industry that is fundamentally insolvent
UK: £300M BA from UK Gov’t, £600M Easyjet
and £600M Ryanair under the CCFF1
Italy: €500M to support
and nationalize Alitalia
New Zealand: $890M loan facility to the
national carrier
Norwegian Airlines: $290M in state loan-guarantees,
$1.6B conversion debt into stock restructuring
Singapore: $13B financing support package
to Singapore Airlines, plus comprehensive
aviation sector support package of $80M
Finnair: €600M state guarantee
Scandinavian Airlines: $446M in state
loan guarantees (SWE/DAN/NOR)
Brazil: Postponement of air navigation fees and
extension of tickets refund for up to 1 year
Note: 1) Covid Corporate Financing Facility
Source: Open sources, IATA
China: reduction of airport parking and air
control fees, incentivizing reward scheme to
encourage restoration of flights
Russia: $300M support package (a/c
leasing, payroll, working capital finance, etc.)
US: $61B support package
• $29B in grants for passenger and cargo
airlines for payroll
• $29B airlines in loans/loan guarantees for
passenger and cargo airlines
• $3B support to airline contractors (e.g.
caterers, ground crew etc.)
Indonesia: $6M worth of incentives
to airlines and travel agencies
Taiwan: $1.6B loans provision to airlines
Canada: postponement of corporate tax
payments for airlines till end of Aug 2020
Air France / KLM: €11B state aid from both
French and Dutch governments
UAE: confirmed support to Emirates
Spain: €1B to support
Iberia and Vueling
~$110-120 B of Gov’t aid unlocked worldwide
N O N - E X H A U S T I V EA S O F M A Y 2 8 T H
Lufthansa: €9B bailout package, of which
~5,7 in non-voting capital and ~3 in loans
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Region
Revenues
in 2019, B$
Gov’t aid,
B$
Gov’t aid/
revenues
North
America ~ 260 ~ 60-65
Europe ~ 210 ~ 15-20
Asia
Pacific ~ 260 ~ 25
South
America ~ 40 ~ 0.5
Africa and
Middle
East
~ 70 ~ 1
Nevertheless, financial aid has been distributed unevenly from Governments,
according to political/social criteria rather than airlines’ business viability
25%
10%
1%
10%
1%
Weak airlines might suffer from increased debt obligations and spark a “second wave” of defaults in the near future
Government support to airlines is higher in stronger
economies, leaving SA and Africa largely uncovered …
…and does not show a strong correlation to beneficiary
airline profitability / business viability
Source: IATA Economics, SRS Analyser, DDS, FlightRadar 24, TTBS, ACIC, Platts, Airline Analyst, annual reports
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Key Strategic questions
P A R T I A L
• How long is the mitigation phase going to last?
– What will the impact on GDP, unemployment, corporate profitability?
• What can the industry do to minimize health concerns and “inconvenience” increase?
• How is the “consumer” and the market going to change?
– Concerns
– Disposable income and priorities/share of wallet
– Way of conducting business
• What can the air transportation industry do to compensate the demand headwinds with
additional sources of value (tangible and intangible, short and long term)?
– How will the industry structure and competitive dynamics going to be impacted?
– What is the level of downsizing requiring and “where to play/how to win”?
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What we know and what are the main uncertainties for the industry looking forward
(1/2)
What we know Uncertainties
N O N - E X H A U S T I V EF O R D I S C U S S I O N
International air transportation was the
main factor contributing to disease
spread to ~170 countries in less than 2
months
Which restrictive measures and new requirements will remain pre/post
vaccine. How governments will react to new virus suspicious
For how long and to what extent will different flyer segments be concerned
with flying
Routes and flight frequencies will be
reduced in the short term
Cost of some factor will remain low
(e.g. oil, leasing …)
What will the impact in the cost / tariffs and consequently the
market size
Aviation will continue to exist as a large
industry and to play a key role in
economies worldwide
When travel restrictions will be relaxed, recovery speed; time
needed to return to pre-crisis levels
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What we know and what are the main uncertainties for the industry looking forward
(2/2)
What we know Uncertainties
N O N - E X H A U S T I V EF O R D I S C U S S I O N
Remote work will grow (ex. WFH) What will be the magnitude of the impact on the industry
The degree of internationalization of
certain supply chains is being
questioned (“globalization”)
What will actually change
What will be the impact in the medium term (demand may
increase in the next 5 years)
Aviation is one of the sectors is
suffering the greatest impact from the
crisis
There will be a lot of discussion /
negotiations / turmoil around the
losses/dilution
How the losses will be divided and which model will be adopted
(in the short and medium term)
What is the degree of this turmoil and what is the impact on
industry structure and competitive dynamics (e.g.
consolidations, changes in ownership control, nationalizations …)
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Different degrees of of Government intervention will generate different impacts on
key industries’ stakeholders
“Who pays the
bill” of the loss
(prox. 12 months)
Market
Market with
Government
coordination
Government and
market contributes
almost “arms’ length”
State with “symbolic”
contribution
Government’s full
support
Nationalization
Investors
Creditors
Suppliers
Employees
Clients
Taxpayers
Major disruption and
litigation
Moral hazard
“Socialization of losses”
Government interventionLower High
Impact
High Low
I L L U S T R A T I V EN O N - E X H A U S T I V E
for today
KEY TOPIC S
02
Developing Airline demand
scenarios
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Why bothering developing scenarios at this stage
• Uncertainty is too high to predict what is going to happen...
• But many need to make decisions in the short term...and “not doing anything” is a decision:
– OEMs need to decide whether to restart production
– Airlines need to make decisions regarding their capital structure
– Unions need to decide their negotiation stance and employees need to decide which alternative they take
– Lessors need to decide their negotiations strategy upstream and downstream
– Investors and creditors need to decide if they are going to underwrite airline risk
• Therefore scenario development can help:
– There are some “givens” and contingency planning can be build
– Building a v.0 of the model/algorithm will accelerate building v.1 (including for contingency planning)
– In discussions with stakeholders (creditors, authorities, suppliers, employees)
TAILWINDSHEADWINDS
Forces at stake in Brazil’s passenger Commercial Aviation
Short-term relief
VFR
“Revenge buying”
Pent up demand
Oil
Restrictions and new
protocols
Economic recession and
political uncertainty
New behaviors
Fears
Remote work
Propensity to save
Experiences vs
Possessions
USD/R$ level
“Dyseconomies” of scale
Globalization reduction
Flight shaming /
environmental pressures
Vaccine release ?
Gov’t support to Airlines ?
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The future development of 7 main factors will impact and define travel demand and
industry recovery going forward, which has been segmented in 4 scenarios
I L L U S T R A T I V E
Scenario 1:
Aggressive V-shaped recovery
Scenario 2:
Moderate V-shaped recovery
Scenario 3:
U-shaped recovery
Scenario 4:
L-shaped recovery
Description Temporary decrease in
passenger demand, recovering to
pre-crisis forecast in 2022
Decreases in passenger demand
recovering to pre-crisis demand
magnitude and growth in 2023
Decreases in passenger demand
recovering to pre-crisis demand
magnitude and growth in 2024
Structural decrease in demand;
domestic recover late 2024 with
int’l recovering to 85% of pre-
crisis by 2025
RPM impact
% of 2019
2020 -60% to -65% -65% to -70% -70% to -75% -75% to -80%
2021 -5% to -10% -20% to -25% -35% to -40% -60 to -65%
Disease spread Highest risk spread contained by
Q2 2020
Highest risk spread contained by
Q2 2020
Highest risk spread lasts
multiple quarters
Highest risk spread lasts
multiple quarters
Gov’t support to
Airlines
Relevant and diffused among
countries and airlines
Relevant, focused on flag/key
airlines
Moderate, almost exclusively to
flag/key airlines
Low, almost exclusively to flag
airlines in US and Europe
Domestic travel
restrictions
Few restrictions Few restrictions Few restrictions Government restrictions put in
place for 1 quarter
International
travel
restrictions
Government restrictions in place
for 1 quarter (primarily Q2
2020)
Broad Gov’t restrictions until
~2Q20, then relaxed quickly at
a regional level, followed by
bilateral agreements
Broad Govt restrictions until
~2Q20, then relaxed slowly on
bilateral basis
Broad Govt restrictions in until
~3Q20, then relaxed slowly on
bilateral basis
Behavior
changes
Social gatherings resume once
allowed, ‘pent up’ demand
accelerates return to pre-COVID
rates; modest structural changes
Low-risk segments act on ‘pent
up’ demand in domestic and
international (with fewer
restrictions)
Low-risk segments act on ‘pent
up’ demand in domestic and
“safe” international, higher-risk
segments slower to re-engage
Distancing holdover into Q3/Q4
2021, especially for higher-risk
segments; ‘permanent’
reduction in structural demand
GDP & global
economy
Global GDP growth flat in 2020 Global GDP contracts by 1-2%
in 2020 and returns to weak
growth in 2021
Global GDP contracts by 1-2%
in 2020 and returns to weak
growth in 2021
Global GDP contracts by 3-4%
in 2020 and remains negative in
2021
Vaccine release Vaccine released early Q1 2021 Vaccine released late Q1 2021 Vaccine released Q2 2021 Vaccine released Q4 2021
2
3
4
5
6
7
Domestic travel restrictions
International travel restrictions
Behavior changes
GDP & global economy
Vaccine release
Gov’t support to Airlines
Disease spread
What you need
to believe
1
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The various scenarios has been translated in travel demand recovery curves, but we
expect in general long recovery periods, beyond most historical comparisons
Vaccine anticipated
in 12-18 months
Note: YoY indexed to remove seasonality; Curves include weighted RPM projections for Middle East and Africa. Source: Bain analysis
At-risk populations
continue to avoid air
travel until a vaccine is
widely available
In severe case, significant structural headwinds
against air travel (remote work, flight shaming, fear)
especially international; also risk for an extended
recession with low GDP growth worldwide
Domestic travel returns to normal
in 2H 2022/1H 2023, but softness
remains in international travel
Second wave of COVID-19 could extend
length of demand reduction and delay
recovery - not considered at any scenario
I L L U S T R A T I V E
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The President, Congressmen and Senators will determine how long the recovery will
take
• Ultimately GDP is the main driver of travel demand
– GDP will grow if there is investor and consumer confidence and employment growth
– Political environment is the main driver of investor and consumer confidence
– Investor confidence depends on tax changes outlook, structural reforms and trust that the 2022
elections will not lead to leftist populist policies
• Without a recovery of investor confidence, the Real will continue to be under
pressure
– Costs of air operations will remain high
– Travel will be not affordable for a large part of the population (especially international flights)
The degree of recovery in Brazil from “70% and above”
will depend above anything else on the political dynamics in Brazil
for today
KEY TOPIC S
03
Impact on the Commercial
Aircraft industry
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The distress caused by the decline in travel demand has propagated through airlines
to OEMs and lessors, which are getting prepared for years of reduced earnings
Passenger A/C demand LessorsCargo A/C demand OEMs
Assets Demand “Assets Distributors”
• General: Proportional to
air travel demand: ~0
during crisis trough,
ramping-up
• New A/C: new aircraft
demand expected to lag
vs travel recovery as
airlines/ leasing companies
will be in CapEx control
mode due to financial
distress and the debt
accumulated in crisis period
• Orders cancellations/
deferrals bring OEMs to
take aggressive cash-
saving measures on their
cost structure (e.g. variable
and semi-fixed) and
ultimately to resort to
additional debt
• Additional hit from Airline
defaults and liquidations
over flooding the market
with cheap, used A/C
• Lessor are forced to come
to agreement with airlines
unable to stand to their
commitments and are
seeing their cash inflows
reduced and/or deferred
• Further risk by asset
impairment and by
burdening/complication of
their debt structure
• General: Increased during
crisis as “belly-hold”
became suddenly not
available
• New A/C: Increased cargo
demand/prices will re-
align to normal following
travel demand pattern, once
belly-hold capacity will
come back, no upside
expected for cargo
aircraft OEMs
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WB demand is linked to long-haul traffic, which will be the last to recover, while NB
and RJs are expected to return into service earlier on domestic routes
Widebodies Narrowbodies Regional Jets1
18%7%
75%
Inter-Regional
Domestic Regional
31%7%
56%
Domestic
Inter-Regional Regional
22%5%
73%
Domestic (mainly US)
Domestic Regional
Airframe
ASM by
traffic
type2
Head/Tail
winds to
recovery
Note: 1) includes Small Narrowbodies (>100 seats) such as the Airbus A220 and the Embraer E190/5; 2) 2019 data, Domestic: within the same country; Regional: within the same continent; Inter-Regional: across continents
Source: Diio, Bain analysis
Impact on
demand
• Only solution for certain long-haul trips,
e.g. most trips among Europe/Americas
and Americas/Asia
• Serve mainly intercontinental routes,
expected to be the last restored
• Risky to operate in the recovery phase:
exposed to down-gauging whenever
frequency can’t be dropped further
• Serve mainly domestic routes, expected
to be the first restored
• First candidate for WB down-gauging,
especially in their long-range versions
• Extensively used by LCC, supposed to
do better in crisis times
• Likely down-gauged to RJs in companies
that own both A/C types
• Almost exclusively domestic routes, the
majority in US (scope clause)
• Lowest cost-per-trip and best choice in
uncertain load-factor scenario
• Usually point-to-point service, avoiding
large/crowded hubs
• Lowest cabin space potentially stressing
passengers
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
-
+
-
P A S S E N G E R A / C
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On the other hand, as passenger flights are being slashed, cargo prices are peaking
to record values: passenger flights “belly hold” accounted for ~50% of total capacity
Pre-COVID, belly hold accounted for 52% of total air
freight…
As total air cargo supply is negatively impacted more than trade volume demand,
demand is high and a few passenger aircraft are being temporarily soft-converted to freighters
Severely impacted
by reduction in air-
travel demand
Source: IATA monthly Air Cargo Market Analysis (Aug ’19 through March ’20)
China to Europe China to USA Europe to US US to Europe
…leading to surges in global air cargo prices,
especially for exports from China
C A R G O A / C F O R D I S C U S S I O N
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Cumulated airline debt and replacement economics shifting towards used platforms
will lead to a drop in new A/C demand, impacting OEMs and related contractors
New aircraft demand post-Covid | % of pre-Covid forecast Insights
Aircraft orders and production not expected to fully recover in the short term, expected to rebound from 2025+
Pre-Covid level • New aircraft demand is expected to
decrease sharply in 2020, as a result of
reduced air travel demand and both
airlines and leasing companies in
financial constraints
• From 2021, orders will gradually ramp
up, slower than travel demand: airlines
and leasing companies will be high in
debt and extra-careful with CapEx while
replacement economics push
preferences towards secondary market
• Nevertheless, early retirements
happening and lower orders in 2020-24
generates a relatively positive order
outlook in 2025+
O E M S
Source: Source: Airline Monitor, Cirium orderbook as of 1/1/2020, Diio
F O R D I S C U S S I O N
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• Airline bankruptcies and liquidation
– Airlines might return current leased fleet to lessors
• Falling rates and aircraft values
– Solvent airlines will seek rent deferrals and renegotiated rates
and / or will opt-out of near-term lease renewals
– Lessors likely to take significant impairment charges
• Large aircraft orders
– Airlines are looking to defer leases and lessors are making
notable modifications to near-term orders
• Increase in borrowing costs and declines in leverage ratios
– Changes will be powered by increases in credit risk assessment
and interest rates
With a decline in revenue and an increase in costs, lessors can expect notable
earnings disruption, which will cause additional impact to OEMs
Source: Market participant interviews
Lessor model will remain intact; but failures are highly
likely to emerge
Key pressures on aircraft lessors Impact on overall industry
A “less strong” leasing sector is likely to act as a drag
on overall industry recovery
Production
Fleet mix
• Capital constrained airlines more likely to rely
on leased aircraft on the future
• Leased fleet likely to be older as lessors re-
market aircraft
• Overcapacity of leased aircraft acts as a
further headwind for production, depressing
demand for new aircraft
L E S S O R S F O R D I S C U S S I O N
for today
KEY TOPIC S
Looking forward
(and Q&A)
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CEOs need to balance multiple priorities
Respond to the crisis and
protect the business
• Put the safety of employees
and customers first
• Set up a task force / war room
of senior leaders to tackle
immediate challenges
• Model scenarios which are
more aggressive than
common/public expectation
• Focus on key areas of your
business: revenues, costs, cash,
operations, and organization
Accelerate through the
recovery
• Drastic restructuring of fixed
costs, maximal caution to
CapEx commitments
• Promote business
simplification
• Forecast demand by geography,
channel and segment
• Develop flexible operational,
organizational, and financial
post-crisis plans to return to
work and capture demand
• Build resilience into operations
and other functions for the future
Retool for the new world
• Rediscover raw customer
needs while avoiding “average
customer” discussions
• Rethink strategic priorities and
invest in key capabilities to
leapfrog the next few chapters of
your industry’s evolution
• Enable your operations and
organization with digitalization
and partnerships to deliver
resilience, scale and speed
• Start a learning to accelerate on
your most critical initiatives and
build future businesses
Ensure business continuity
and stability
• Reduce or eliminate
nonessential activity
• Refocus the war room from
reactive to proactive crisis
management
• Focus on employee
sustainability, particularly for
the crisis-response team
• Plan a cascade of severe
actions to preserve business
viability and identify their triggers
Act now to protect and run the business today Plan now to retool the business for the future
TRANSFORMATION OFFICEWAR ROOM
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A esperança: elementos que não estamos vendo também podem ajudar a
acelerar a retomada
…“wish for best, but plan for the worse”
What are
your top of mind
questions?
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Kai Grass
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#BainWebinar Commercial Aviation Outlook and Scenarios

  • 1. Commercial Aviation: outlook and scenarios J U N E 3 r d , 2 0 2 0 COVID-19 Copyright @ 2020 Bain & Company. All rights reserved. Any use of this material without specific permission of Bain & Company is strictly prohibited
  • 2. 2200327 COVID-19 Fact Pack_v1 ( ...NYC Context for these materials • COVID-19 is a humanitarian crisis and a global challenge. In this interconnected world, we have seen the virus spread rapidly, and we are still gathering information to understand both its cause and its impact • We are grateful for the businesses, governments, non-profits, and individuals around the world that are working to protect those that are sick or in danger of becoming so and “flatten the curve” • There is a lot that is still unknown about COVID-19; these materials are an attempt to shed light on what we know so far to help businesses make informed decisions – The top priority for all businesses is to protect the safety and health of employees and customers, for which there are WHO, CDC, and other national guidelines – Bain is not an expert on epidemiology and containment policies, however given our 45+ years of experience advising companies during both economic booms and busts, we are committed to spreading accurate and timely information to reduce the unknowns for businesses and business leaders • Our focus is to enable companies to make rapid and practical decisions; with a global pandemic that is rapidly spreading and changing, now is not the time for detailed decision making; the need for speed and the right directional strategy outweighs the need to get intricate details right, and we are committed to helping business leaders navigate the path forward
  • 3. Partner, Member of AM&S, M&I, South America Kai Grass Our team INTRODUCING Partner, Head of Airlines and Private Equity, South America Andre Castellini Manager, Member of M&I, South America Felipe Cammarata Consultant, Member of Aerospace & Defense, EMEA Matteo Marazzi
  • 4. What are your top of mind questions? A C C E S S Q & A F R O M T O O L B A R T Y P E T H E Q U E S T I O N A N D P R E S S E N T E R Presentation Q & A 20 min40 min To submit a question during the presentation, click the “Q&A” button In the interest of time, I will be collecting your questions and saving them until the presentation is finished
  • 5. for today KEY TOPIC S Developing Airline demand scenarios 02 COVID-19 outlook and the Aviation industry 01 Looking forward (and Q&A) 0403 Impact on commercial Aircraft industry
  • 6. for today KEY TOPIC S 01 COVID-19 outlook and the Aviation industry
  • 7. 7200603_Webinar aviacao_ENG_v16 ... SAO Restore “new normal” Heavy mitigation Containment/ light mitigation Deflection from pre-crisis baseline Blackout “crisis” phase Post-crisis recovery This point varies by country Preliminary estimate is 40-50% deflection This point will vary by epidemiological course and socio-political judgments Preliminary estimate is 5-20% deflection Likely dependent on a permanent medical intervention or the attainment of herd immunity Dependent on timing of (3) and (5): roughly 5-10% deflection 1 2 4 5 6 Brownout “sustain” phase 3 The recovery shape will depend on the overall epidemiology and economic recovery; we can think of three phases… Source: Bain Macro Trends Group analysis, April 2020 I L L U S T R A T I V E
  • 8. 8200603_Webinar aviacao_ENG_v16 ... SAO Different priorities arise from each phase of the COVID-19 crisis How do I lead and manage an unprecedented amount of change? How do I leverage the learning from planned and unplanned “experiments” Accelerate through recovery Retool for new worldProtect and ensure continuity How does the industry evolve and how do I adapt value propositions, capabilities and ways of working? How do I quickly mobilize people, re-establish customer relevance, and reactivate supply chains? How do I ensure the safety of my people and protect the business? How do I manage a cascade of operating challenges for an uncertain duration? How are we relevant to our customers, employees, shareholders, and community? How should our purpose, values, and brand guide the decisions we make? Business cycle W H A T H O W W H Y
  • 9. 9200603_Webinar aviacao_ENG_v16 ... SAO While COVID-19 emergency worldwide is tapering off, it is leaving a heavy mark on global economies whose consequences still need to be figured out completely Source: Johns Hopkins University, CDC, WHO, Bain Macro Trends Group analysis Most developed countries are beginning to see a decline in fatalities … A S O F M A Y 2 6 T H ~5.6M Confirmed cases ~351K Confirmed fatalities March May …although some have reported recent upticks April
  • 10. 10200603_Webinar aviacao_ENG_v16 ... SAO The SARS hospitalizations metric suggests Brazil may have reached new cases peak, but additional waves are possible Note: Source: Brazilian Ministry of Health – Public Health Emergency Operations Center Epidemiological Week Hospitalizations due to SARS per epidemiological week (k# cases; week of the beginning of symptoms) Weeks that are likely still incomplete on the reports First wave of exponential growth Contamination curve slowdown after governmental measures are applied Increase of contamination due to virus spread to the countryside and smaller cities B R A Z I L I A N P E R S P E C T I V E A S O F M A Y 2 5 T H
  • 11. 11200603_Webinar aviacao_ENG_v16 ... SAO In Brazil impact will be different by Region, with North and East being the most impacted from an economic and epidemiologic point of view • > 28% economy based on industries with high share of extractive mining, projected to grow in 2020 • > 10% of region economy is based on agriculture High epidemiological impact Low economic impact North • ~10% of total GDP based on Tourism, sector that will suffer a major blow • ~11% of GDP based on commerce • ~42% of total revenue based on fiscal transfers that will be reinforced by federal government measures • >27% of GDP based on agribusiness; strong soy harvest and high USD will keep good performance in 2020 • Other sectors in the region are highly connected to agribusiness High epidemiological impact High economic impact Midwest Northeast Southeast Low epidemiological impact Low economic impact High epidemiological impact Average to High economic impact • Highly diversified economy means Southeast region should have a significant impact Epidemiological impact High Medium Low South Low epidemiological impact Average economic impact • 20% based on industrials, largest dependence on manufacture industries (such as furniture, textiles, clothing and footwear), severely due to pandemic • Agriculture also plays an important role, but weather lead to crop losses in 2020 (47% loss of soybean harvest in RS)
  • 12. 12200603_Webinar aviacao_ENG_v16 ... SAO Airlines are likely to be one of the last industries to emerge from COVID-19 induced crisis, when they will, the circumstances will be far from feeling “familiar” Source: Lit research, Bain analysis First to reach new normal Last to reach new normal Consumer Electronics Real Estate Advanced Manufacturing Oil and Gas Automotive Luxury, apparel and beauty products Hotels Airlines Sports events and concerts Cruises No or limited crowding More essential spending Less regulation due to COVID-19 Substantial crowding More discretionary spending More regulation due to COVID-19 Cross-border transmission risk I L L U S T R A T I V EN O N - E X H A U S T I V E
  • 13. 13200603_Webinar aviacao_ENG_v16 ... SAO Australia: $430M package Airlines expect to fall ~$310 B short of revenues in 2020: governments have started pouring financial support into an industry that is fundamentally insolvent UK: £300M BA from UK Gov’t, £600M Easyjet and £600M Ryanair under the CCFF1 Italy: €500M to support and nationalize Alitalia New Zealand: $890M loan facility to the national carrier Norwegian Airlines: $290M in state loan-guarantees, $1.6B conversion debt into stock restructuring Singapore: $13B financing support package to Singapore Airlines, plus comprehensive aviation sector support package of $80M Finnair: €600M state guarantee Scandinavian Airlines: $446M in state loan guarantees (SWE/DAN/NOR) Brazil: Postponement of air navigation fees and extension of tickets refund for up to 1 year Note: 1) Covid Corporate Financing Facility Source: Open sources, IATA China: reduction of airport parking and air control fees, incentivizing reward scheme to encourage restoration of flights Russia: $300M support package (a/c leasing, payroll, working capital finance, etc.) US: $61B support package • $29B in grants for passenger and cargo airlines for payroll • $29B airlines in loans/loan guarantees for passenger and cargo airlines • $3B support to airline contractors (e.g. caterers, ground crew etc.) Indonesia: $6M worth of incentives to airlines and travel agencies Taiwan: $1.6B loans provision to airlines Canada: postponement of corporate tax payments for airlines till end of Aug 2020 Air France / KLM: €11B state aid from both French and Dutch governments UAE: confirmed support to Emirates Spain: €1B to support Iberia and Vueling ~$110-120 B of Gov’t aid unlocked worldwide N O N - E X H A U S T I V EA S O F M A Y 2 8 T H Lufthansa: €9B bailout package, of which ~5,7 in non-voting capital and ~3 in loans
  • 14. 14200603_Webinar aviacao_ENG_v16 ... SAO Region Revenues in 2019, B$ Gov’t aid, B$ Gov’t aid/ revenues North America ~ 260 ~ 60-65 Europe ~ 210 ~ 15-20 Asia Pacific ~ 260 ~ 25 South America ~ 40 ~ 0.5 Africa and Middle East ~ 70 ~ 1 Nevertheless, financial aid has been distributed unevenly from Governments, according to political/social criteria rather than airlines’ business viability 25% 10% 1% 10% 1% Weak airlines might suffer from increased debt obligations and spark a “second wave” of defaults in the near future Government support to airlines is higher in stronger economies, leaving SA and Africa largely uncovered … …and does not show a strong correlation to beneficiary airline profitability / business viability Source: IATA Economics, SRS Analyser, DDS, FlightRadar 24, TTBS, ACIC, Platts, Airline Analyst, annual reports
  • 15. 15200603_Webinar aviacao_ENG_v16 ... SAO Key Strategic questions P A R T I A L • How long is the mitigation phase going to last? – What will the impact on GDP, unemployment, corporate profitability? • What can the industry do to minimize health concerns and “inconvenience” increase? • How is the “consumer” and the market going to change? – Concerns – Disposable income and priorities/share of wallet – Way of conducting business • What can the air transportation industry do to compensate the demand headwinds with additional sources of value (tangible and intangible, short and long term)? – How will the industry structure and competitive dynamics going to be impacted? – What is the level of downsizing requiring and “where to play/how to win”?
  • 16. 16200603_Webinar aviacao_ENG_v16 ... SAO What we know and what are the main uncertainties for the industry looking forward (1/2) What we know Uncertainties N O N - E X H A U S T I V EF O R D I S C U S S I O N International air transportation was the main factor contributing to disease spread to ~170 countries in less than 2 months Which restrictive measures and new requirements will remain pre/post vaccine. How governments will react to new virus suspicious For how long and to what extent will different flyer segments be concerned with flying Routes and flight frequencies will be reduced in the short term Cost of some factor will remain low (e.g. oil, leasing …) What will the impact in the cost / tariffs and consequently the market size Aviation will continue to exist as a large industry and to play a key role in economies worldwide When travel restrictions will be relaxed, recovery speed; time needed to return to pre-crisis levels
  • 17. 17200603_Webinar aviacao_ENG_v16 ... SAO What we know and what are the main uncertainties for the industry looking forward (2/2) What we know Uncertainties N O N - E X H A U S T I V EF O R D I S C U S S I O N Remote work will grow (ex. WFH) What will be the magnitude of the impact on the industry The degree of internationalization of certain supply chains is being questioned (“globalization”) What will actually change What will be the impact in the medium term (demand may increase in the next 5 years) Aviation is one of the sectors is suffering the greatest impact from the crisis There will be a lot of discussion / negotiations / turmoil around the losses/dilution How the losses will be divided and which model will be adopted (in the short and medium term) What is the degree of this turmoil and what is the impact on industry structure and competitive dynamics (e.g. consolidations, changes in ownership control, nationalizations …)
  • 18. 18200603_Webinar aviacao_ENG_v16 ... SAO Different degrees of of Government intervention will generate different impacts on key industries’ stakeholders “Who pays the bill” of the loss (prox. 12 months) Market Market with Government coordination Government and market contributes almost “arms’ length” State with “symbolic” contribution Government’s full support Nationalization Investors Creditors Suppliers Employees Clients Taxpayers Major disruption and litigation Moral hazard “Socialization of losses” Government interventionLower High Impact High Low I L L U S T R A T I V EN O N - E X H A U S T I V E
  • 19. for today KEY TOPIC S 02 Developing Airline demand scenarios
  • 20. 20200603_Webinar aviacao_ENG_v16 ... SAO Why bothering developing scenarios at this stage • Uncertainty is too high to predict what is going to happen... • But many need to make decisions in the short term...and “not doing anything” is a decision: – OEMs need to decide whether to restart production – Airlines need to make decisions regarding their capital structure – Unions need to decide their negotiation stance and employees need to decide which alternative they take – Lessors need to decide their negotiations strategy upstream and downstream – Investors and creditors need to decide if they are going to underwrite airline risk • Therefore scenario development can help: – There are some “givens” and contingency planning can be build – Building a v.0 of the model/algorithm will accelerate building v.1 (including for contingency planning) – In discussions with stakeholders (creditors, authorities, suppliers, employees)
  • 21. TAILWINDSHEADWINDS Forces at stake in Brazil’s passenger Commercial Aviation Short-term relief VFR “Revenge buying” Pent up demand Oil Restrictions and new protocols Economic recession and political uncertainty New behaviors Fears Remote work Propensity to save Experiences vs Possessions USD/R$ level “Dyseconomies” of scale Globalization reduction Flight shaming / environmental pressures Vaccine release ? Gov’t support to Airlines ?
  • 22. 22200603_Webinar aviacao_ENG_v16 ... SAO The future development of 7 main factors will impact and define travel demand and industry recovery going forward, which has been segmented in 4 scenarios I L L U S T R A T I V E Scenario 1: Aggressive V-shaped recovery Scenario 2: Moderate V-shaped recovery Scenario 3: U-shaped recovery Scenario 4: L-shaped recovery Description Temporary decrease in passenger demand, recovering to pre-crisis forecast in 2022 Decreases in passenger demand recovering to pre-crisis demand magnitude and growth in 2023 Decreases in passenger demand recovering to pre-crisis demand magnitude and growth in 2024 Structural decrease in demand; domestic recover late 2024 with int’l recovering to 85% of pre- crisis by 2025 RPM impact % of 2019 2020 -60% to -65% -65% to -70% -70% to -75% -75% to -80% 2021 -5% to -10% -20% to -25% -35% to -40% -60 to -65% Disease spread Highest risk spread contained by Q2 2020 Highest risk spread contained by Q2 2020 Highest risk spread lasts multiple quarters Highest risk spread lasts multiple quarters Gov’t support to Airlines Relevant and diffused among countries and airlines Relevant, focused on flag/key airlines Moderate, almost exclusively to flag/key airlines Low, almost exclusively to flag airlines in US and Europe Domestic travel restrictions Few restrictions Few restrictions Few restrictions Government restrictions put in place for 1 quarter International travel restrictions Government restrictions in place for 1 quarter (primarily Q2 2020) Broad Gov’t restrictions until ~2Q20, then relaxed quickly at a regional level, followed by bilateral agreements Broad Govt restrictions until ~2Q20, then relaxed slowly on bilateral basis Broad Govt restrictions in until ~3Q20, then relaxed slowly on bilateral basis Behavior changes Social gatherings resume once allowed, ‘pent up’ demand accelerates return to pre-COVID rates; modest structural changes Low-risk segments act on ‘pent up’ demand in domestic and international (with fewer restrictions) Low-risk segments act on ‘pent up’ demand in domestic and “safe” international, higher-risk segments slower to re-engage Distancing holdover into Q3/Q4 2021, especially for higher-risk segments; ‘permanent’ reduction in structural demand GDP & global economy Global GDP growth flat in 2020 Global GDP contracts by 1-2% in 2020 and returns to weak growth in 2021 Global GDP contracts by 1-2% in 2020 and returns to weak growth in 2021 Global GDP contracts by 3-4% in 2020 and remains negative in 2021 Vaccine release Vaccine released early Q1 2021 Vaccine released late Q1 2021 Vaccine released Q2 2021 Vaccine released Q4 2021 2 3 4 5 6 7 Domestic travel restrictions International travel restrictions Behavior changes GDP & global economy Vaccine release Gov’t support to Airlines Disease spread What you need to believe 1
  • 23. 23200603_Webinar aviacao_ENG_v16 ... SAO The various scenarios has been translated in travel demand recovery curves, but we expect in general long recovery periods, beyond most historical comparisons Vaccine anticipated in 12-18 months Note: YoY indexed to remove seasonality; Curves include weighted RPM projections for Middle East and Africa. Source: Bain analysis At-risk populations continue to avoid air travel until a vaccine is widely available In severe case, significant structural headwinds against air travel (remote work, flight shaming, fear) especially international; also risk for an extended recession with low GDP growth worldwide Domestic travel returns to normal in 2H 2022/1H 2023, but softness remains in international travel Second wave of COVID-19 could extend length of demand reduction and delay recovery - not considered at any scenario I L L U S T R A T I V E
  • 24. 26200603_Webinar aviacao_ENG_v16 ... SAO The President, Congressmen and Senators will determine how long the recovery will take • Ultimately GDP is the main driver of travel demand – GDP will grow if there is investor and consumer confidence and employment growth – Political environment is the main driver of investor and consumer confidence – Investor confidence depends on tax changes outlook, structural reforms and trust that the 2022 elections will not lead to leftist populist policies • Without a recovery of investor confidence, the Real will continue to be under pressure – Costs of air operations will remain high – Travel will be not affordable for a large part of the population (especially international flights) The degree of recovery in Brazil from “70% and above” will depend above anything else on the political dynamics in Brazil
  • 25. for today KEY TOPIC S 03 Impact on the Commercial Aircraft industry
  • 26. 28200603_Webinar aviacao_ENG_v16 ... SAO The distress caused by the decline in travel demand has propagated through airlines to OEMs and lessors, which are getting prepared for years of reduced earnings Passenger A/C demand LessorsCargo A/C demand OEMs Assets Demand “Assets Distributors” • General: Proportional to air travel demand: ~0 during crisis trough, ramping-up • New A/C: new aircraft demand expected to lag vs travel recovery as airlines/ leasing companies will be in CapEx control mode due to financial distress and the debt accumulated in crisis period • Orders cancellations/ deferrals bring OEMs to take aggressive cash- saving measures on their cost structure (e.g. variable and semi-fixed) and ultimately to resort to additional debt • Additional hit from Airline defaults and liquidations over flooding the market with cheap, used A/C • Lessor are forced to come to agreement with airlines unable to stand to their commitments and are seeing their cash inflows reduced and/or deferred • Further risk by asset impairment and by burdening/complication of their debt structure • General: Increased during crisis as “belly-hold” became suddenly not available • New A/C: Increased cargo demand/prices will re- align to normal following travel demand pattern, once belly-hold capacity will come back, no upside expected for cargo aircraft OEMs
  • 27. 29200603_Webinar aviacao_ENG_v16 ... SAO WB demand is linked to long-haul traffic, which will be the last to recover, while NB and RJs are expected to return into service earlier on domestic routes Widebodies Narrowbodies Regional Jets1 18%7% 75% Inter-Regional Domestic Regional 31%7% 56% Domestic Inter-Regional Regional 22%5% 73% Domestic (mainly US) Domestic Regional Airframe ASM by traffic type2 Head/Tail winds to recovery Note: 1) includes Small Narrowbodies (>100 seats) such as the Airbus A220 and the Embraer E190/5; 2) 2019 data, Domestic: within the same country; Regional: within the same continent; Inter-Regional: across continents Source: Diio, Bain analysis Impact on demand • Only solution for certain long-haul trips, e.g. most trips among Europe/Americas and Americas/Asia • Serve mainly intercontinental routes, expected to be the last restored • Risky to operate in the recovery phase: exposed to down-gauging whenever frequency can’t be dropped further • Serve mainly domestic routes, expected to be the first restored • First candidate for WB down-gauging, especially in their long-range versions • Extensively used by LCC, supposed to do better in crisis times • Likely down-gauged to RJs in companies that own both A/C types • Almost exclusively domestic routes, the majority in US (scope clause) • Lowest cost-per-trip and best choice in uncertain load-factor scenario • Usually point-to-point service, avoiding large/crowded hubs • Lowest cabin space potentially stressing passengers + + + - + + + - - + - P A S S E N G E R A / C
  • 28. 31200603_Webinar aviacao_ENG_v16 ... SAO On the other hand, as passenger flights are being slashed, cargo prices are peaking to record values: passenger flights “belly hold” accounted for ~50% of total capacity Pre-COVID, belly hold accounted for 52% of total air freight… As total air cargo supply is negatively impacted more than trade volume demand, demand is high and a few passenger aircraft are being temporarily soft-converted to freighters Severely impacted by reduction in air- travel demand Source: IATA monthly Air Cargo Market Analysis (Aug ’19 through March ’20) China to Europe China to USA Europe to US US to Europe …leading to surges in global air cargo prices, especially for exports from China C A R G O A / C F O R D I S C U S S I O N
  • 29. 32200603_Webinar aviacao_ENG_v16 ... SAO Cumulated airline debt and replacement economics shifting towards used platforms will lead to a drop in new A/C demand, impacting OEMs and related contractors New aircraft demand post-Covid | % of pre-Covid forecast Insights Aircraft orders and production not expected to fully recover in the short term, expected to rebound from 2025+ Pre-Covid level • New aircraft demand is expected to decrease sharply in 2020, as a result of reduced air travel demand and both airlines and leasing companies in financial constraints • From 2021, orders will gradually ramp up, slower than travel demand: airlines and leasing companies will be high in debt and extra-careful with CapEx while replacement economics push preferences towards secondary market • Nevertheless, early retirements happening and lower orders in 2020-24 generates a relatively positive order outlook in 2025+ O E M S Source: Source: Airline Monitor, Cirium orderbook as of 1/1/2020, Diio F O R D I S C U S S I O N
  • 30. 33200603_Webinar aviacao_ENG_v16 ... SAO • Airline bankruptcies and liquidation – Airlines might return current leased fleet to lessors • Falling rates and aircraft values – Solvent airlines will seek rent deferrals and renegotiated rates and / or will opt-out of near-term lease renewals – Lessors likely to take significant impairment charges • Large aircraft orders – Airlines are looking to defer leases and lessors are making notable modifications to near-term orders • Increase in borrowing costs and declines in leverage ratios – Changes will be powered by increases in credit risk assessment and interest rates With a decline in revenue and an increase in costs, lessors can expect notable earnings disruption, which will cause additional impact to OEMs Source: Market participant interviews Lessor model will remain intact; but failures are highly likely to emerge Key pressures on aircraft lessors Impact on overall industry A “less strong” leasing sector is likely to act as a drag on overall industry recovery Production Fleet mix • Capital constrained airlines more likely to rely on leased aircraft on the future • Leased fleet likely to be older as lessors re- market aircraft • Overcapacity of leased aircraft acts as a further headwind for production, depressing demand for new aircraft L E S S O R S F O R D I S C U S S I O N
  • 31. for today KEY TOPIC S Looking forward (and Q&A)
  • 32. 35200603_Webinar aviacao_ENG_v16 ... SAO CEOs need to balance multiple priorities Respond to the crisis and protect the business • Put the safety of employees and customers first • Set up a task force / war room of senior leaders to tackle immediate challenges • Model scenarios which are more aggressive than common/public expectation • Focus on key areas of your business: revenues, costs, cash, operations, and organization Accelerate through the recovery • Drastic restructuring of fixed costs, maximal caution to CapEx commitments • Promote business simplification • Forecast demand by geography, channel and segment • Develop flexible operational, organizational, and financial post-crisis plans to return to work and capture demand • Build resilience into operations and other functions for the future Retool for the new world • Rediscover raw customer needs while avoiding “average customer” discussions • Rethink strategic priorities and invest in key capabilities to leapfrog the next few chapters of your industry’s evolution • Enable your operations and organization with digitalization and partnerships to deliver resilience, scale and speed • Start a learning to accelerate on your most critical initiatives and build future businesses Ensure business continuity and stability • Reduce or eliminate nonessential activity • Refocus the war room from reactive to proactive crisis management • Focus on employee sustainability, particularly for the crisis-response team • Plan a cascade of severe actions to preserve business viability and identify their triggers Act now to protect and run the business today Plan now to retool the business for the future TRANSFORMATION OFFICEWAR ROOM
  • 33. 36200603_Webinar aviacao_ENG_v16 ... SAO A esperança: elementos que não estamos vendo também podem ajudar a acelerar a retomada …“wish for best, but plan for the worse”
  • 34. What are your top of mind questions? A C C E S S Q & A F R O M T O O L B A R T Y P E T H E Q U E S T I O N A N D P R E S S E N T E R
  • 35. Andre Castellini Andre.Castellini@Bain.com Kai.Grass@Bain.com Kai Grass if you would like to discuss furtherContact us Felipe.Cammarata@Bain.com Felipe Cammarata Matteo.Marazzi@Bain.com Matteo Marazzi