Deaths/day reached 1013 on 9th August and have declined thereafter with some fluctuations.
Infections/day reached 67,066 on 12th August and have declined thereafter with some fluctuations.
Active Infections reached 677,059 on 15th August and have declined thereafter.
On 9th August, cumulative deaths were 44,466 (32 deaths/Mn)
There are several caveats and possibilities still left as we will discuss further.
The 2nd wave is retreating. However, Kerala and to some Maharashtra are growing again as are the North East States. Meanwhile vaccination is averaging only 4 Mn doses/day. What are the possibilities for a 3rd wave? Read the presentation to see the latest position.
This presentation focuses on the 2nd wave in India. What may have caused it and by when will it abate. There are no definite answers at this stage but directions are laid out.
The co-relative model presented on 24.05.20 has been reasonably successful in predicting the date for first decline in deaths/day to start. Decline commenced on 15.09.20
The decline has been faster than anticipated. After a plateau in November and early December a declining trend is visible currently
North India’s spike after Diwali has come under control. As of now all states are stable/declining
In the next 30 days we may expect Deaths/Day to slowly decline further
71 cases of the new UK variant have been observed in India – no indications of local spread as of now. Genome has been mapped in UK and India. Implications for vaccine effectiveness awaited.
Vaccination logistics and process seem comprehensive and well thought through
Vaccination should start within a week or ten days
This document provides a summary and projection of Covid-19 data in India as of June 6, 2020. Key points include:
- Testing has increased to over 120,000 per day with a stabilizing positive rate of 7%
- New infections per day are over 10,000 but the doubling rate has slowed to 17 days
- Deaths are close to 300 per day with signs of slowing growth in major hotspots
- A projection model estimates cumulative deaths may reach 13,000-28,000 by mid-July if the current growth rate continues to decline.
The last week has seen a spurt in deaths/day. This has been led by Maharashtra (minus Mumbai), Karnataka and other Southern States. UP, Bihar and West Bengal are growing fairly fast on a small base.
Delhi/Haryana/Gujarat are coming under control.
Mathematical projections have been impacted by the spurt in deaths. At the moment, we appear to be still growing. No clear decline is visible as yet.
Deaths/day are slowing down gradually. The trend is visible in most hotspots and at the All India level.
On June 16th, there was a massive spike in deaths (2004) caused by backlog data that was added for Maharashtra and Delhi. This distorted the trend, but subsequent days have shown a decline
Deaths/day reached 1013 on 9th August and have declined thereafter with some fluctuations.
Infections/day reached 67,066 on 12th August and have declined thereafter with some fluctuations.
Active Infections reached 677,059 on 15th August and have declined thereafter.
On 9th August, cumulative deaths were 44,466 (32 deaths/Mn)
There are several caveats and possibilities still left as we will discuss further.
The 2nd wave is retreating. However, Kerala and to some Maharashtra are growing again as are the North East States. Meanwhile vaccination is averaging only 4 Mn doses/day. What are the possibilities for a 3rd wave? Read the presentation to see the latest position.
This presentation focuses on the 2nd wave in India. What may have caused it and by when will it abate. There are no definite answers at this stage but directions are laid out.
The co-relative model presented on 24.05.20 has been reasonably successful in predicting the date for first decline in deaths/day to start. Decline commenced on 15.09.20
The decline has been faster than anticipated. After a plateau in November and early December a declining trend is visible currently
North India’s spike after Diwali has come under control. As of now all states are stable/declining
In the next 30 days we may expect Deaths/Day to slowly decline further
71 cases of the new UK variant have been observed in India – no indications of local spread as of now. Genome has been mapped in UK and India. Implications for vaccine effectiveness awaited.
Vaccination logistics and process seem comprehensive and well thought through
Vaccination should start within a week or ten days
This document provides a summary and projection of Covid-19 data in India as of June 6, 2020. Key points include:
- Testing has increased to over 120,000 per day with a stabilizing positive rate of 7%
- New infections per day are over 10,000 but the doubling rate has slowed to 17 days
- Deaths are close to 300 per day with signs of slowing growth in major hotspots
- A projection model estimates cumulative deaths may reach 13,000-28,000 by mid-July if the current growth rate continues to decline.
The last week has seen a spurt in deaths/day. This has been led by Maharashtra (minus Mumbai), Karnataka and other Southern States. UP, Bihar and West Bengal are growing fairly fast on a small base.
Delhi/Haryana/Gujarat are coming under control.
Mathematical projections have been impacted by the spurt in deaths. At the moment, we appear to be still growing. No clear decline is visible as yet.
Deaths/day are slowing down gradually. The trend is visible in most hotspots and at the All India level.
On June 16th, there was a massive spike in deaths (2004) caused by backlog data that was added for Maharashtra and Delhi. This distorted the trend, but subsequent days have shown a decline
• The highest point for Deaths/Day was 1281 on 15th September. This peak has
held till now (67 days)
• Deaths/Day have crossed 1000 on only 1 day after 3rd October. Declining trend
had set in followed by a plateau and a slow decline post the Diwali spike
• New/Active cases have also peaked and were declining.
• The highest no of cases was on 16th September at 97,856. That peak has held till now.
• Active Cases peaked at 10,17,718 on 17th September
• Both New and Active cases are plateauing/declining now
• Likely trend in Deaths/Day for the next 30 days is a plateau/slow decline
Deaths/Day have been fluctuating between 1000 – 1200 since 13th August
The highest point for Deaths/Day was 1283 on 15th September. This peak has held till now (20 days)
Almost all states are showing stable/declining trends in Deaths/Day
New/Active cases have also peaked and are declining.
The highest no of cases was on 16th September at 97,856. That peak has held till now.
Active Cases peaked at 10,17,718 on 17th September
This presentation includes facts and figures assembled by Gen Re for the U.S. Life insurance industry. The information has been assembled in honor of the Life Foundation's Life Insurance Awareness Month campaign (September 2014).
September is a time for spreading awareness via the Life Insurance Awareness Month (LIAM) campaign. What's key for insurance professionals is to find the best way to connect with consumers on the need for this product. Take a look at our presentation for a few of these important facts and figures that can help convey the right message.
Read More: http://www.genre.com/knowledge/blog/life-insurance-stats-and-facts-en.html
Building Strong Advocacy Efforts to Address Southern HIV/AIDS DisparitiesPatrick Packer
The document summarizes the work of the Southern AIDS Coalition over several years to address the disproportionate impact of HIV/AIDS in southern states. It notes that the south accounts for 40% of people living with AIDS and 46% of new AIDS cases, though it only receives 33% of federal prevention funds. It advocates for increased funding for care, treatment, prevention and research to address the growing HIV epidemic in the south.
There are two kinds of fools: those who can't change their opinions and those who won't.
- Josh Billings
Never tell a fool that he is a fool. All you'll have is an angry fool.
- The Talmud
Presentation given at the International Crisis Mappers Conference 2014 was an Ignite Talk on Gender considerations in mapping the Ebola outbreak. The video for the talk can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXbGbWNIaI4
01 Malope Monitoring The Social And Other Impacts Of Hiv Malope, N.SNicholas Jacobs
The document summarizes indicators for monitoring the social and demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa. It discusses 3 key indicators: 1) death rate among ages 15-49, which has increased due to AIDS-related deaths; 2) under-5 and infant mortality rates, both of which declined from 1990 to 2009 due to improved health interventions but remain elevated due to HIV; and 3) cause-specific mortality rates, where HIV/AIDS is now the leading cause of death in South Africa. The document reviews trends in these indicators and concludes that HIV/AIDS has had a serious impact on mortality and demographic changes in South Africa.
The Effect Race and Income on HIV AIDS infection in African-Americans - Sunil...Sunil Nair
Race and Income has a significant influence on susceptibility to HIV/AIDS infections; Afro-Americans (Blacks) are 1.33 times more likely to be infected than whites. A significant finding is that the income level didn't change race's effect on HIV infections. Race has a significant effect on HIV infections or is an important predictor of incidence of HIV infections independent of the income. In other words, irrespective of the income level being black and poor increases the changes of being infected with HIV/AIDS.
A Post-Census Mortality Survey to Capture HIV/AIDS Deaths MEASURE Evaluation
A post-census mortality survey was conducted in Mozambique to accurately measure HIV/AIDS and other cause-specific mortality rates at the national and sub-national levels. The survey used a stratified random sample of households that reported a death in the previous year from the 2007 census. Trained doctors reviewed verbal autopsy questionnaires to assign causes of death. Results showed HIV/AIDS as a leading cause of death and varying HIV/AIDS mortality rates across provinces. The survey provides important data for health planning and measuring impact of interventions.
This document discusses harm reduction strategies for injection drug users, specifically syringe services programs (SSPs). It notes that SSPs can help reduce the spread of HIV, hepatitis C, and other infections among injection drug users and the community. However, there is currently a federal ban on the use of federal funds to support SSPs. The document advocates lifting this ban, as SSPs are supported by many medical and public health organizations and enjoy support at the local and state levels. Lifting the ban could allow federal funding of SSP services other than direct syringe provision and help address health disparities among injection drug users.
This document summarizes the results of a phone survey conducted in Kenya that assessed the impact of COVID-19 on rural households. Some key findings:
- Confirmed COVID-19 cases in Kenya had risen to over 88,000 by the survey date, with a 1.7% fatality rate.
- Most respondents continued to experience income losses due to the pandemic, with over 80% of women and 64% of men reporting losses. Common coping mechanisms like using savings and selling assets had declined significantly.
- Mobility remained restricted for most (89%), primarily to buy food or attend religious functions. Food insecurity was widespread, with 70% unable to afford nutritious foods.
This document summarizes key findings from presentations given at a conference on health reform and prevention. It shows that prevention can save significant costs, especially for conditions like diabetes, but is often undervalued. Where you live also impacts health outcomes. As the population ages, there will be fewer workers supporting more retirees, increasing financial pressures on health systems. Lifestyle factors like smoking, obesity, and inactivity greatly increase risks of disease. Those who are at higher risk see disability onset nearly 7 years earlier. Healthier elderly individuals live longer and incur lower lifetime medical costs than less healthy peers.
ThinkNow Research Hispanic Healthcare CoverageThinkNow
A recent survey conducted through the ThinkNow Research monthly Omnibus shows that a significantly higher number of respondents report having healthcare coverage in May 2014 as compared to November 2013. This increase was seen among both Hispanic and non-Hispanic respondents surveyed.
Americans and hiv aids - selected 2014 national survey findings from the kais...KFF
The document summarizes findings from two 2014 surveys by the Kaiser Family Foundation regarding Americans' awareness and knowledge of HIV/AIDS. Some key findings include: over half of respondents know someone living with or who died from HIV/AIDS; HIV/AIDS is rarely or never discussed with family or intimate partners for many; and less than 40% of respondents were aware of major scientific advances in HIV treatment and prevention. The surveys found that while most had been tested for HIV at some point, relatively few reported getting tested regularly as advised.
Human Early Learning Partnership And Health Promotionnadiafor
The document discusses how factors early in life can impact health outcomes later in life. It shows that socioeconomic status is correlated with health and that health inequalities, or gradients, exist within countries. Early childhood experiences like quality of nurturing and language exposure can influence brain development and have long-lasting effects on physical and mental health.
The document summarizes the findings of a phone survey conducted in January 2021 on the impact of COVID-19 on rural communities in Cross River and Kaduna states in Nigeria. Key findings include:
- Around 80% of households reported loss of income due to COVID-19 across both states. Coping strategies included using savings, selling assets, borrowing money, and receiving government/NGO transfers.
- Mobility was severely constrained, with around three-quarters of respondents reporting less mobility than before COVID-19. Around 70% of respondents experienced food insecurity.
- Care burdens increased for both men and women. Male respondents reported spending more time on care than women acknowledged. International migration decreased while internal migration increased
The 11th Update of Covid Stats in India was presented by Debu Bhatnagar on 3.11.20. Neeraj Chandra presented a model that seeks to understand the shapes of the Covid curves for different countries.
The highest point for Deaths/Day was 1283 on 15th September. This peak has held till now (35 days)
Deaths/Day have crossed 1000 on only 1 day after 3rd October. Distinct declining trend has set in.
Almost all states are showing stable/declining trends in Deaths/Day
New/Active cases have also peaked and are declining.
The highest no of cases was on 16th September at 97,856. That peak has held till now.
Active Cases peaked at 10,17,718 on 17th September
R0 value has dropped to 0.93 on 25th September
The highest point for Deaths/Day was 1281 on 15th September. This peak has held till now (67 days)
Deaths/Day have crossed 1000 on only 1 day after 3rd October. Declining trend had set in but is now plateauing/trending upwards due to a spike in Delhi and North India.
New/Active cases have also peaked and were declining.
The highest no of cases was on 16th September at 97,856. That peak has held till now.
Active Cases peaked at 10,17,718 on 17th September
Both New and Active cases are plateauing/trending upwards now
Vaccine developments hold promise for India via Astra Zeneca and Novavax tie up with Serum Institute of India, Sputnik with Dr Reddy’s, J&J with Biological E and Bharat Biotech. All these vaccines are in Phase 3. Cadila in Phase 2 is also promising.
• The highest point for Deaths/Day was 1281 on 15th September. This peak has
held till now (67 days)
• Deaths/Day have crossed 1000 on only 1 day after 3rd October. Declining trend
had set in followed by a plateau and a slow decline post the Diwali spike
• New/Active cases have also peaked and were declining.
• The highest no of cases was on 16th September at 97,856. That peak has held till now.
• Active Cases peaked at 10,17,718 on 17th September
• Both New and Active cases are plateauing/declining now
• Likely trend in Deaths/Day for the next 30 days is a plateau/slow decline
Deaths/Day have been fluctuating between 1000 – 1200 since 13th August
The highest point for Deaths/Day was 1283 on 15th September. This peak has held till now (20 days)
Almost all states are showing stable/declining trends in Deaths/Day
New/Active cases have also peaked and are declining.
The highest no of cases was on 16th September at 97,856. That peak has held till now.
Active Cases peaked at 10,17,718 on 17th September
This presentation includes facts and figures assembled by Gen Re for the U.S. Life insurance industry. The information has been assembled in honor of the Life Foundation's Life Insurance Awareness Month campaign (September 2014).
September is a time for spreading awareness via the Life Insurance Awareness Month (LIAM) campaign. What's key for insurance professionals is to find the best way to connect with consumers on the need for this product. Take a look at our presentation for a few of these important facts and figures that can help convey the right message.
Read More: http://www.genre.com/knowledge/blog/life-insurance-stats-and-facts-en.html
Building Strong Advocacy Efforts to Address Southern HIV/AIDS DisparitiesPatrick Packer
The document summarizes the work of the Southern AIDS Coalition over several years to address the disproportionate impact of HIV/AIDS in southern states. It notes that the south accounts for 40% of people living with AIDS and 46% of new AIDS cases, though it only receives 33% of federal prevention funds. It advocates for increased funding for care, treatment, prevention and research to address the growing HIV epidemic in the south.
There are two kinds of fools: those who can't change their opinions and those who won't.
- Josh Billings
Never tell a fool that he is a fool. All you'll have is an angry fool.
- The Talmud
Presentation given at the International Crisis Mappers Conference 2014 was an Ignite Talk on Gender considerations in mapping the Ebola outbreak. The video for the talk can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXbGbWNIaI4
01 Malope Monitoring The Social And Other Impacts Of Hiv Malope, N.SNicholas Jacobs
The document summarizes indicators for monitoring the social and demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa. It discusses 3 key indicators: 1) death rate among ages 15-49, which has increased due to AIDS-related deaths; 2) under-5 and infant mortality rates, both of which declined from 1990 to 2009 due to improved health interventions but remain elevated due to HIV; and 3) cause-specific mortality rates, where HIV/AIDS is now the leading cause of death in South Africa. The document reviews trends in these indicators and concludes that HIV/AIDS has had a serious impact on mortality and demographic changes in South Africa.
The Effect Race and Income on HIV AIDS infection in African-Americans - Sunil...Sunil Nair
Race and Income has a significant influence on susceptibility to HIV/AIDS infections; Afro-Americans (Blacks) are 1.33 times more likely to be infected than whites. A significant finding is that the income level didn't change race's effect on HIV infections. Race has a significant effect on HIV infections or is an important predictor of incidence of HIV infections independent of the income. In other words, irrespective of the income level being black and poor increases the changes of being infected with HIV/AIDS.
A Post-Census Mortality Survey to Capture HIV/AIDS Deaths MEASURE Evaluation
A post-census mortality survey was conducted in Mozambique to accurately measure HIV/AIDS and other cause-specific mortality rates at the national and sub-national levels. The survey used a stratified random sample of households that reported a death in the previous year from the 2007 census. Trained doctors reviewed verbal autopsy questionnaires to assign causes of death. Results showed HIV/AIDS as a leading cause of death and varying HIV/AIDS mortality rates across provinces. The survey provides important data for health planning and measuring impact of interventions.
This document discusses harm reduction strategies for injection drug users, specifically syringe services programs (SSPs). It notes that SSPs can help reduce the spread of HIV, hepatitis C, and other infections among injection drug users and the community. However, there is currently a federal ban on the use of federal funds to support SSPs. The document advocates lifting this ban, as SSPs are supported by many medical and public health organizations and enjoy support at the local and state levels. Lifting the ban could allow federal funding of SSP services other than direct syringe provision and help address health disparities among injection drug users.
This document summarizes the results of a phone survey conducted in Kenya that assessed the impact of COVID-19 on rural households. Some key findings:
- Confirmed COVID-19 cases in Kenya had risen to over 88,000 by the survey date, with a 1.7% fatality rate.
- Most respondents continued to experience income losses due to the pandemic, with over 80% of women and 64% of men reporting losses. Common coping mechanisms like using savings and selling assets had declined significantly.
- Mobility remained restricted for most (89%), primarily to buy food or attend religious functions. Food insecurity was widespread, with 70% unable to afford nutritious foods.
This document summarizes key findings from presentations given at a conference on health reform and prevention. It shows that prevention can save significant costs, especially for conditions like diabetes, but is often undervalued. Where you live also impacts health outcomes. As the population ages, there will be fewer workers supporting more retirees, increasing financial pressures on health systems. Lifestyle factors like smoking, obesity, and inactivity greatly increase risks of disease. Those who are at higher risk see disability onset nearly 7 years earlier. Healthier elderly individuals live longer and incur lower lifetime medical costs than less healthy peers.
ThinkNow Research Hispanic Healthcare CoverageThinkNow
A recent survey conducted through the ThinkNow Research monthly Omnibus shows that a significantly higher number of respondents report having healthcare coverage in May 2014 as compared to November 2013. This increase was seen among both Hispanic and non-Hispanic respondents surveyed.
Americans and hiv aids - selected 2014 national survey findings from the kais...KFF
The document summarizes findings from two 2014 surveys by the Kaiser Family Foundation regarding Americans' awareness and knowledge of HIV/AIDS. Some key findings include: over half of respondents know someone living with or who died from HIV/AIDS; HIV/AIDS is rarely or never discussed with family or intimate partners for many; and less than 40% of respondents were aware of major scientific advances in HIV treatment and prevention. The surveys found that while most had been tested for HIV at some point, relatively few reported getting tested regularly as advised.
Human Early Learning Partnership And Health Promotionnadiafor
The document discusses how factors early in life can impact health outcomes later in life. It shows that socioeconomic status is correlated with health and that health inequalities, or gradients, exist within countries. Early childhood experiences like quality of nurturing and language exposure can influence brain development and have long-lasting effects on physical and mental health.
The document summarizes the findings of a phone survey conducted in January 2021 on the impact of COVID-19 on rural communities in Cross River and Kaduna states in Nigeria. Key findings include:
- Around 80% of households reported loss of income due to COVID-19 across both states. Coping strategies included using savings, selling assets, borrowing money, and receiving government/NGO transfers.
- Mobility was severely constrained, with around three-quarters of respondents reporting less mobility than before COVID-19. Around 70% of respondents experienced food insecurity.
- Care burdens increased for both men and women. Male respondents reported spending more time on care than women acknowledged. International migration decreased while internal migration increased
The 11th Update of Covid Stats in India was presented by Debu Bhatnagar on 3.11.20. Neeraj Chandra presented a model that seeks to understand the shapes of the Covid curves for different countries.
The highest point for Deaths/Day was 1283 on 15th September. This peak has held till now (35 days)
Deaths/Day have crossed 1000 on only 1 day after 3rd October. Distinct declining trend has set in.
Almost all states are showing stable/declining trends in Deaths/Day
New/Active cases have also peaked and are declining.
The highest no of cases was on 16th September at 97,856. That peak has held till now.
Active Cases peaked at 10,17,718 on 17th September
R0 value has dropped to 0.93 on 25th September
The highest point for Deaths/Day was 1281 on 15th September. This peak has held till now (67 days)
Deaths/Day have crossed 1000 on only 1 day after 3rd October. Declining trend had set in but is now plateauing/trending upwards due to a spike in Delhi and North India.
New/Active cases have also peaked and were declining.
The highest no of cases was on 16th September at 97,856. That peak has held till now.
Active Cases peaked at 10,17,718 on 17th September
Both New and Active cases are plateauing/trending upwards now
Vaccine developments hold promise for India via Astra Zeneca and Novavax tie up with Serum Institute of India, Sputnik with Dr Reddy’s, J&J with Biological E and Bharat Biotech. All these vaccines are in Phase 3. Cadila in Phase 2 is also promising.
There has been a huge change between my last presentation on 14.02.21 and now. The second wave has India (and especially Maharashtra) suddenly and hard.
What are the contours of the second wave? How bad will it be and when will it start abating?
This presentation seeks to explore the above areas.
Highlights
Cases and deaths continue to slowly decline. However there are some signs that cases are picking up again in some geographies
In the next 30 days we may expect Deaths/Day to slowly decline further
Key risk is of a second wave (possible but unlikely) caused either by a the existing variant or possibly a new one. Vaccination is too slow to provide herd immunity in the near future. India will have to rely on social distancing, masking etc for the foreseeable future
The document summarizes research on COVID-19 cases, testing, and mortality. It notes that while the total number of cases is unknown, confirmed cases provide a minimum count. Testing is important to understand the outbreak but many countries lack testing capacity. The number of confirmed deaths is known but the final mortality rate requires knowing all case outcomes. South Korea has performed the most tests per capita while many countries, including the US, have low testing.
North India’s spike after Diwali has come under control. As of now all states are declining
In the next 30 days we may expect Deaths/Day to slowly decline further
150 cases of the new UK variant have been observed in India – no indications of local spread as of now. Genome has been mapped in UK and India. Implications for vaccine effectiveness awaited
Sero positive study in Delhi has come up with 50% positive in Delhi. Significant jump in a few months. This may hasten the progress to herd immunity. Results awaited
Vaccination has got off to a slow start with numbers picking up gradually. India cumulative upto 24.01.21 is 1,615,504 jabs in 9 days. Average of 179,500 per day. USA 20.54 Mn from 14th Dec (42 days) = 489,047 per day
Key risk is of a second wave (possible but unlikely) caused either by a the existing variant or possibly a new one. Vaccination is too slow to provide herd immunity in the near future. India will have to rely on social distancing, masking etc for the foreseeable future
This document provides a 3-paragraph summary of a McKinsey & Company report on COVID-19:
The report discusses COVID-19 as primarily a humanitarian crisis that has severely impacted communities in multiple continents. It notes that over 3,500 deaths have resulted from over 105,000 reported cases, with Wuhan and Hubei province being the most affected locations. Solving this humanitarian challenge is the top priority.
The document is intended to provide facts and insights on the current COVID-19 situation to help decision-makers understand best practices. It discusses the implications of COVID-19 for the wider economy, businesses, and employment. It outlines challenges these groups may face and how they can respond to protect people and navigate
- The COVID-19 epidemic in Luxembourg has slowed slightly over the past week, with the effective reproduction number decreasing to 0.8 from 0.9 and projections showing a reduced linear trend of 473 new cases per day compared to 548 previously.
- However, the number of new cases remains high at over 8,000 estimated active cases, and continued social efforts are needed to further reduce transmission and bring the epidemic under better control.
- While measures may be showing an effect in slowing the epidemic, the situation remains volatile. Increased social interactions over the holidays could lead to a rebound if people do not remain cautious.
Predicting coronavirus cases and questions need answeringJames Orr
Another weekend, and another attempt to make sense out of the Coronavirus Case data from states in the United States. Overall, cases per day remain flat (on plateau) with no decline in data. However, other indications suggest increasing irrelevant to use new cases per day for social policy decisions. Indication that new hospitalizations per day might be a better measure.
COVID-19 data configuration and statistical analysisAnshJAIN50
This document analyzes factors that influence the spread of COVID-19 in different countries. It compares the total cases and deaths in 3 more economically developed countries (MEDCs) - Italy, Japan, China - and 3 less economically developed countries (LEDCs) - Israel, India, Indonesia. By modeling the data with different functions, the author finds that a Verhulst function best represents the data, predicting a plateau. Analysis of total tests and positive cases shows Japan having the highest continued spread. Considering population density helps explain differences in case numbers between countries like Italy and China. The document evaluates how factors like population density, healthcare quality, and testing rates impact the spread of COVID-19 in different nations.
There are rare graphs and charts showing Covid-19 and Covid-19 Vaccination data together, which might be not political correct now for major medical or health organizations.
So I produced some such charts based on related worldwide open data.
The PPT just shows a set of charts about covid-19 and vaccination for different countries using world wide open data downloaded on 8-28, 2021.
A Fundação Fernando Henrique Cardoso (FFHC) e o Centro Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (CEBRI) convidam para o webinar:
China and the New Coronavirus: challenges of an interconnected world
Neste evento, o economista Arthur Kroeber, diretor da Gavegal Dragonomics, empresa de consultoria global com foco na economia chinesa, apresentará sua visão sobre o impacto da pandemia do Covid - 19 na China e na economia mundial. Apoiado em ampla base de dados e reconhecida capacidade analítica, traçará cenários para o futuro imediato e de médio prazo, considerando as dimensões do desafio e as respostas dadas até aqui pelo governo da China, dos Estados Unidos e da Europa.
PALESTRANTE
ARTHUR KROEBER
Sócio Fundador e Chefe de Pesquisa da Gavekal, foi co-fundador do serviço de pesquisa Dragonomics, com foco na China, em 2002, em Pequim, e é o editor-chefe do China Economic Quarterly. Desde a fusão da Dragonomics em 2011 com a Gavekal Research, ele foi chefe de pesquisa da operação combinada. Antes de fundar a Dragonomics, ele foi de 1987 a 2002 um jornalista especializado em assuntos econômicos asiáticos, e reportou da China, Índia, Paquistão e outros países asiáticos. Ele publicou amplamente em jornais, revistas e periódicos acadêmicos e é membro do Brookings-Tsinghua Center em Pequim.
This document analyzes South Korea's COVID-19 response and provides recommendations for future direction. It begins with an analysis of the current situation, including an examination of new virus variants and their impact on case and death rates globally and in South Korea. It then selects benchmark countries based on infection management, economic impact, and other criteria. Factors contributing to the success of top performing countries are analyzed, such as vaccination rates, policy stringency, and economic strategies. The document concludes with recommendations for South Korea's COVID-19 response going forward.
This document analyzes South Korea's COVID-19 response and provides recommendations for future direction. It begins with an analysis of the current situation, including an examination of new virus variants and their impact on case and death rates globally and in South Korea. It then selects benchmark countries based on infection management, economic impact, and other criteria. Factors contributing to the success of top performing countries are analyzed, such as vaccination rates, policy stringency, and economic strategies. The document concludes with recommendations for South Korea's COVID-19 response going forward.
Epidemiology and programs of leprosy [Autosaved].pptxNirajDhinoja1
It is a unique presentation about current epidemiology of leprosy and its burden in India. It also includes information about various health programs related to leprosy.
impact of corona on aging population around the worldlavina tewani
The document discusses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on aging populations globally. It provides statistics showing that risk of severe illness and death from COVID-19 increases dramatically with age. For those over 70, Spanish data shows hospitalization rates of around 20%, ICU rates of 10%, and death rates of around 10%. The pandemic therefore presents a serious threat to the health and lives of older individuals.
Laura Bamford, MD, MSCE
Associate Professor of Medicine
Medical Director, Owen Clinic
Division of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health
Department of Medicine
University of California, San Diego
The document discusses Alberta's shift from a pandemic to endemic approach to COVID-19. It provides context for the decision by examining broader impacts of measures like mental health effects, drops in cancer screening and immunizations, and increasing issues like opioid deaths and surgical backlogs. It also reviews factors considered like vaccine effectiveness, modeling of hospitalizations, and evidence that severity and impacts on children are not increased by the Delta variant. The approach aims to integrate COVID-19 management with other respiratory viruses while maintaining health system capacity.
Similar to Covid 19 Stats in India Update 3 6.07.20 (20)
This document summarizes Covid-19 data in India as of June 7, 2021 and projects potential scenarios for a third wave. Key points include:
- Testing rates have declined while positivity rates remain above 5%, and cumulative CFR has risen indicating the second wave was more lethal.
- Cases peaked in early May but are declining, though the rate of decline is slowing. Active cases and deaths are also declining.
- States peaked within 3-4 weeks of each other, suggesting the dominant Delta variant spreads rapidly. Declines are also consistent across states.
- The consistency of rises and falls implies human interventions have low impact once a wave starts, and virus/variant traits may drive peaks and trough
This document provides a summary and analysis of Covid-19 data in India as of May 24, 2021. It notes that testing has not kept pace with the second wave and positivity rates remain high. While cases nationally have peaked and are declining, deaths have yet to do so in many states. The consistency seen in how quickly cases increased across states and have since declined suggests the dominant B.1.617.2 variant spreads very rapidly. Vaccination rates need to increase substantially to 2.8 million doses per day as targeted for May. The document analyzes vaccination needs by population group and notes current rates are only around 1.5 million per day.
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Very recent trends are again showing stability/decline in deaths
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1. Covid 19 Stats in India –
Update 3
Review of key data and presentation of a projection model
Data updated till 5.07.20
Data Sources: https://www.covid19india.org/; https://www.worldometers.info/
2. Key Highlights
• Deaths/day are slowing down gradually. The trend is visible in most
hotspots.
• The infection is slowly spreading in other states.
3. Agenda
• Presentation of key data for All India 10 Mins
• Presentation of key data for Hot Spots 10 Mins
• Discussion 5 Mins
• Presentation of update on projection model 10 Mins
• Discussion 15 Mins
5. • Testing has been ramped
up to over 240,000 tests
per day.
• The % positive rate is now
close to 10%.
• The % positive rate is
showing signs of stabilizing,
but no decline is visible yet.
(Sunday testing is always
low and test results come
in with a lag)
• This indicates that the
infection has spread wider
than the testing net.
6. • We are recording over
23,000 new infections/day
with a doubling rate of 20
days. Cumulative infections
stand at 673,876 on
5.07.20
• However, new infections
being discovered are a
function of how many tests
are being done. The real no
of infections is probably far
higher than what is being
discovered.
• IMPORTANT – Infections
are therefore not a reliable
indicator for forecasting
future trends. We will
focus on deaths as the key
parameter for forecasting.
7. • Cumulative deaths are 19,700 as of 5.07.20
• The polynomial line of best fit is forming a crest as we
will see later.
• The doubling rate is slowing.
• Daily deaths are slowing down
• Maharashtra figures are soft as they keep adjusting
previous period deaths almost every day. This accounts
for some sudden peaks. However, the trend is flattening.
8. • Cum Infections = Cum
Recoveries + Cum Deaths
• Recoveries have been showing
an encouraging trend. However
the Recovery Rate is not a
useful parameter. Eventually,
the recovery rate should reach
97%.
• Active Infections are still
growing, leading to additional
burden on the healthcare
system.
9. • The death rate trend has been
distorted by the addition of backlog
deaths on 16th June. However, the
trend is getting back to normal. At
present it is around 2.82% vs 2.8%
prior to June 16th.
• Deaths may occur afterwards from the
same group. This will push up the rate
a little.
• As discussed earlier the real level of
infections in the population may be
very much higher. In that case the real
death rate is probably much lower than
what is shown here.
• India’s death rate is lower than all
major countries.
11. • Mumbai has been the worst
affected by Covid 19 followed
by Delhi and Ahmedabad.
• Chennai cases are very high
with a relatively better death
rate. This may be due to
aggressive testing.
• The disease has still not
significantly penetrated
outside the major hot spots
though it is slowly spreading.
• Is it possible that social
distancing and other control
measures can be more
effectively implemented in
small towns/rural areas? This
may lead to earlier peaking
out.
12.
13. • The charts show weekly growth rates in deaths/million for key cities that were impacted
• Apart from Kolkata where the death figures are already at a lower level, all cities are showing a decline in the weekly
growth rates of deaths/million
14. • Maharashtra figures for deaths are being revised frequently. Past period
adjustments are disturbing the trend.
• Bihar is growing on a small base. After being flat for some time, UP is also
trending upwards. If not controlled immediately, these states could make
matters far worse for the pandemic.
• Haryana is coming under control along with Delhi.
16. Basis for Projection
• Most countries have seen a fall in new infections and deaths per day
after some time. Some countries like India have yet to experience
this.
• The response of various counties is different in terms of when this
decline started.
• Our model will use per capita deaths and infections on the day the
decline started in each country to model a possible scenario for India.
As stated earlier, deaths are a more reliable indicator than infections
for projection.
17. Herd Immunity and R0
• There is some speculation on why the virus has declined in so many countries.
• ‘Herd Immunity’ comes when approximately 60% of the population is immune
either by a vaccine or because they have had the disease already. This has not
happened anywhere in the world.
• Social distancing, hand washing, and masking can help to reduce the R0 value
even if Herd Immunity has not been achieved. Perhaps this is the reason why
infections and deaths have declined.
• This presentation and projection model does not seek to answer this question. It
is merely based on the empirical evidence of declines having taken place in most
countries.
18. Infections Deaths Infections Deaths
Malaysia 3.04.20 29.03.20 103 1
Thailand 29.04.20 NA 42 -
Indonesia 13.05.20 NA 57 -
Bangladesh NA NA - -
Pakistan NA NA - -
Turkey 11.04.20 19.04.20 619 24
Iran 30.03.20 4.04.20 495 41
Italy 26.03.20 27.03.20 1,333 151
Spain 1.04.20 2.04.20 2,227 221
France 3.04.20 15.04.20 1,171 263
Germany 2.04.20 15.04.20 1,012 45
Russia 11.05.20 NA 1,517 -
UK 6.05.20 21.04.20 2,962 298
USA 24.04.20 21.04.20 2,797 138
Brazil NA NA - -
Date of Decline Start Per Million on that date
19. Country Wise Variations
• The disease has impacted various countries differently. Broadly, the following clusters
emerge:
• UK/USA are the worst hit. While deaths/day have started declining in both countries they will have a slow
recovery.
• Spain/France/Italy have had a very sharp increase followed by a steep fall.
• Germany is the outlier in Europe as they have managed to contain the infection better than other
neighbouring countries.
• Turkey and Iran in West Asia have fared better than their European counterparts. There is a ‘second wave’ of
infections happening in Iran but it may be due to enhanced testing as deaths/day continue to decline.
• South East Asia, Africa and ANZ have largely escaped the brunt of the disease.
• It is outside the scope of this discussion to assign reasons for this differential behaviour.
Speculation about natural immunity, BCG vaccination, endemic malaria, hot weather etc
are continuing.
• Based on the differential response, India looks set to behave more like its West Asian
counterparts. The rest of South Asia may also follow suit.
20. Projection Update
Population Per Mn Deaths on Day Decline Starts Projected Deaths on Day Decline Starts
Low Medium High Low Medium High
India 1,37,843,247 25 40 50 34,461 55,137 68,922
• May 24th Presentation – Projected date for decline in deaths/day was First Half of July 2020 based on a
doubling rate of deaths per day of 13 days.
• 1st Update on 7th June – Projected date was pushed back to Second Half of July 2020 as the doubling rate
had slowed to 17 days.
• 2nd Update on 21st June – Appeared that decline may start soon as the growth in death rates had slowed
further.
21. Mathematical Projections - Alternative
Parameters
• Cumulative Deaths
• Daily Deaths 7 DMA
• Day on Day Deaths Growth Rate
• Daily Deaths/Active Infections
• Cum Deaths vs Active Infections/Cum Infections
22. • The Cumulative Deaths
curve polynomial line
of best fit is showing a
crest forming. R Square
value is very high
indicating a good fit for
the projection.
• This is projected to
happen on 19th July
when the cumulative
deaths are at 22,500
23. • Daily deaths are
expected to peak on
12th July when the 7
DMA is at 450
• R Square Value is
also good indicating
a good fit for the
projection
24. • The Growth in day on day
deaths has been showing a
declining trend.
• Daily deaths are slated to
stop growing as per this
trend line by 8th July.
• However, the R square
value is low and hence this
forecast should be viewed
with caution.
25. • Daily deaths as a
percentage of active
infections is another
parameter we have been
tracking.
• This ratio is projected to
reach zero on 30th July
indicating that deaths will
stop.
• This is a drastic projection
and needs to be viewed
with caution especially as
the R Square value is low
26. • As cumulative deaths start becoming constant, with
active infections decreasing this curve should start
trending downwards.
• The last week has seen the first signs of this
happening.
• As cumulative deaths and infections start
becoming constant, this curve should start
becoming flat.
• This had started happening before the anomaly
on 16th June. After that it is again decreasing but
is not showing signs of flattening yet.
27. Day of Decline Start Cum Deaths on that Day Forecast Reliability (R Square)
Correlative Forecast
24th May First Half of July 35,000
7th June Second Half of July 35,000
21st June End June 18,000
Mathematical Projections 7th
July
Cumulative Deaths 19th July 22,500 Very High
Daily Deaths 7 DMA 12th July 22,000 Very High
Day on Day Deaths Growth
Rate
18th June 12,500 Very Low
Daily Deaths/Active Infections 21st June 12,500 Low
28. Directions
• The last two weeks have seen a general flattening of the death curve. The worst affected
state, Maharashtra, continues to adjust previous period deaths leading to some softness
in the figures. Hopefully, we will not see another anomaly.
• The return of migrant workers to their home states have still not led to a spurt in deaths
in UP and Bihar though the trends are going up.
• Increased testing is leading to a larger discovery of cases. However as discussed earlier
this has little bearing on the progression of the pandemic.
• Based on current trends, we can expect a decline in deaths per day to start around the
15 – 20th of July when the cumulative deaths stand at 22,000 – 23,000. The date is in line
with our initial estimates, but the death toll is significantly less. The major risk is that the
rural hinterland will see an explosion of cases after some time. This view has been
expressed by Dr Ashish Jha of Harvard.
29. Thank You!
Please mail me at debubhatnagar@gmail.com
with any comments.
Disclaimer: These projections and analysis are not official and are the work of an
amateur. They should not be the basis of any decision making.