Food Processing Industry - Scaling New Heights
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YFactor Marketing Private Limited was the knowledge partner with CII for the conference on 22.05.14
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Highlights
Cases and deaths continue to slowly decline. However there are some signs that cases are picking up again in some geographies
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Covid 19 stats in india update 16 25.01.21
North India’s spike after Diwali has come under control. As of now all states are declining
In the next 30 days we may expect Deaths/Day to slowly decline further
150 cases of the new UK variant have been observed in India – no indications of local spread as of now. Genome has been mapped in UK and India. Implications for vaccine effectiveness awaited
Sero positive study in Delhi has come up with 50% positive in Delhi. Significant jump in a few months. This may hasten the progress to herd immunity. Results awaited
Vaccination has got off to a slow start with numbers picking up gradually. India cumulative upto 24.01.21 is 1,615,504 jabs in 9 days. Average of 179,500 per day. USA 20.54 Mn from 14th Dec (42 days) = 489,047 per day
Key risk is of a second wave (possible but unlikely) caused either by a the existing variant or possibly a new one. Vaccination is too slow to provide herd immunity in the near future. India will have to rely on social distancing, masking etc for the foreseeable future
Covid 19 stats in india update 15 6.01.21
The co-relative model presented on 24.05.20 has been reasonably successful in predicting the date for first decline in deaths/day to start. Decline commenced on 15.09.20
The decline has been faster than anticipated. After a plateau in November and early December a declining trend is visible currently
North India’s spike after Diwali has come under control. As of now all states are stable/declining
In the next 30 days we may expect Deaths/Day to slowly decline further
71 cases of the new UK variant have been observed in India – no indications of local spread as of now. Genome has been mapped in UK and India. Implications for vaccine effectiveness awaited.
Vaccination logistics and process seem comprehensive and well thought through
Vaccination should start within a week or ten days
Covid 19 stats in india update 14 22.12.20
This document provides an analysis of Covid-19 data in India through December 21, 2020 and projects future trends. Key highlights include:
- Daily deaths peaked at 1281 on September 15 and have been declining since, plateauing around 500 in November and trending downward recently.
- New and active cases have also peaked and are declining, with the highest new cases on September 16 of 97,856.
- A projection model based on data from other countries estimates India's daily deaths may slowly decline over the next 30 days.
- While a second wave is possible, it is considered unlikely for India as a whole based on trends in most other countries of declines after initial peaks.
Covid 19 stats in india update 13 7.12.20
• The highest point for Deaths/Day was 1281 on 15th September. This peak has
held till now (67 days)
• Deaths/Day have crossed 1000 on only 1 day after 3rd October. Declining trend
had set in followed by a plateau and a slow decline post the Diwali spike
• New/Active cases have also peaked and were declining.
• The highest no of cases was on 16th September at 97,856. That peak has held till now.
• Active Cases peaked at 10,17,718 on 17th September
• Both New and Active cases are plateauing/declining now
• Likely trend in Deaths/Day for the next 30 days is a plateau/slow decline
Covid 19 stats in India update 12 23.11.20
The highest point for Deaths/Day was 1281 on 15th September. This peak has held till now (67 days)
Deaths/Day have crossed 1000 on only 1 day after 3rd October. Declining trend had set in but is now plateauing/trending upwards due to a spike in Delhi and North India.
New/Active cases have also peaked and were declining.
The highest no of cases was on 16th September at 97,856. That peak has held till now.
Active Cases peaked at 10,17,718 on 17th September
Both New and Active cases are plateauing/trending upwards now
Vaccine developments hold promise for India via Astra Zeneca and Novavax tie up with Serum Institute of India, Sputnik with Dr Reddy’s, J&J with Biological E and Bharat Biotech. All these vaccines are in Phase 3. Cadila in Phase 2 is also promising.
Covid 19 stats in india update 11 3.11.20
The 11th Update of Covid Stats in India was presented by Debu Bhatnagar on 3.11.20. Neeraj Chandra presented a model that seeks to understand the shapes of the Covid curves for different countries.
Covid 19 stats in india update 10 20.10.20
The highest point for Deaths/Day was 1283 on 15th September. This peak has held till now (35 days)
Deaths/Day have crossed 1000 on only 1 day after 3rd October. Distinct declining trend has set in.
Almost all states are showing stable/declining trends in Deaths/Day
New/Active cases have also peaked and are declining.
The highest no of cases was on 16th September at 97,856. That peak has held till now.
Active Cases peaked at 10,17,718 on 17th September
R0 value has dropped to 0.93 on 25th September
Covid 19 Stats in India Update 9 6.10.20
Deaths/Day have been fluctuating between 1000 – 1200 since 13th August
The highest point for Deaths/Day was 1283 on 15th September. This peak has held till now (20 days)
Almost all states are showing stable/declining trends in Deaths/Day
New/Active cases have also peaked and are declining.
The highest no of cases was on 16th September at 97,856. That peak has held till now.
Active Cases peaked at 10,17,718 on 17th September
Covid 19 stats in india update 8 22.09.20
Predictions of decline made on 1.09.20 have not held.
There has been a spurt in deaths in the key states of Maharashtra, Karnataka and Delhi that is still continuing.
Punjab and UP are especially worrying
Very recent trends are again showing stability/decline in deaths
Covid 19 stats in india update 7 1.09.20
Deaths/day reached 1013 on 9th August and started declining. There was another peak on 18th August of 1099 which has held till now.
Plateauing is established. Sharp declines are yet to be seen.
Assuming the 18th August peak holds, the following predictions may follow:
A decline in the 7 DMA in the next 2 weeks by 10 – 30 deaths/day
Decline in daily deaths to 50% of peak level in November
Covid 19 Stats in India Update 6 18.08.20
Deaths/day reached 1013 on 9th August and have declined thereafter with some fluctuations.
Infections/day reached 67,066 on 12th August and have declined thereafter with some fluctuations.
Active Infections reached 677,059 on 15th August and have declined thereafter.
On 9th August, cumulative deaths were 44,466 (32 deaths/Mn)
There are several caveats and possibilities still left as we will discuss further.
Covid 19 Stats in India Update 5 4.08.20
Deaths/day stabilizing
Active Infections trend beginning to show a crest formation.
RO below 1 in Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai
Covid 19 Stats in India Update 4 20.07.20
The last week has seen a spurt in deaths/day. This has been led by Maharashtra (minus Mumbai), Karnataka and other Southern States. UP, Bihar and West Bengal are growing fairly fast on a small base.
Delhi/Haryana/Gujarat are coming under control.
Mathematical projections have been impacted by the spurt in deaths. At the moment, we appear to be still growing. No clear decline is visible as yet.
Covid 19 Stats in India Update 3 6.07.20
Deaths/day are slowing down gradually. The trend is visible in most hotspots.
The infection is slowly spreading in other states.
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