Deaths/day are slowing down gradually. The trend is visible in most hotspots and at the All India level. On June 16th, there was a massive spike in deaths (2004) caused by backlog data that was added for Maharashtra and Delhi. This distorted the trend, but subsequent days have shown a decline

1. Covid 19 Stats in India –
Update 2
Review of key data and presentation of a projection model
Data updated till 22.06.20
Data Sources: https://www.covid19india.org/; https://www.worldometers.info/

2. Key Highlights
• Deaths/day are slowing down gradually. The trend is visible in most
hotspots and at the All India level.
• On June 16th, there was a massive spike in deaths (2004) caused by
backlog data that was added for Maharashtra and Delhi. This
distorted the trend, but subsequent days have shown a decline

3. Agenda
• Presentation of key data for All India 10 Mins
• Presentation of key data for Hot Spots 10 Mins
• Discussion 5 Mins
• Presentation of update on projection model 10 Mins
• Discussion 15 Mins

4. All India Data

5. • Testing has been ramped
up to over 180,000 tests
per day.
• The % positive rate is now
around 8%.
• The % positive rate is
showing signs of stabilizing,
but no decline is visible yet.
• This indicates that the
infection has spread wider
than the testing net.

6. • We are recording over
15,000 new infections/day.
• However, new infections
being discovered are a
function of how many tests
are being done. The real no
of infections is probably far
higher than what is being
discovered.
• IMPORTANT – Infections
are therefore not a reliable
indicator for forecasting
future trends.

7. • Cumulative deaths are
13,703 as of 21.06.20
• The polynomial line of best
fit is still showing an
upward trend. However, as
we will see later, daily
deaths are flattening out.
• On 16th June, there was a
huge spike in the reported
deaths and a backlog was
added from Maharashtra
and Delhi. This has
distorted the graph, but
subsequent days are
getting back to the trend.
• The doubling rate is 13 (fell
from 17 days due to the
spike, but this will rise
quickly as more data
becomes available in the
next few days.

8. • Cum Infections = Cum
Recoveries + Cum Deaths
• Recoveries have been showing
an encouraging trend.
• This figure is better seen as an
absolute number as the number
of infections is dependant on
the amount of testing. This is
not showing a decline yet.
• On an absolute basis, the more
recoveries there are the better
for the healthcare system as it
frees up capacity.

9. • The death rate trend has been
distorted by the addition of backlog
deaths on 16th June. However, the
trend is getting back to normal. At
present it is around 3.2% vs 2.8% prior
to June 16th.
• Deaths may occur afterwards from the
same group. This will push up the rate
a little.
• As discussed earlier the real level of
infections in the population may be
very much higher. In that case the real
death rate is probably much lower than
what is shown here.
• India’s death rate is lower than all
major countries.

10. • As discussed earlier, the
addition of backlog to the
death numbers have
distorted the trend.
• However, subsequently
the graph is showing a
stable/slightly declining
trend.
• The Polynomial line of
best fit is suggesting a
move downwards fairly
soon. However, due to
the distortion, the R
square value is low
making the projection
unreliable as of now.
• Hopefully, we will not be
hit with more concealed
data coming out.

11. Hot Spots Data

12. • Mumbai has been the
worst affected by Covid
followed by Ahmedabad
and Delhi.
• Chennai cases are very
high with a relatively low
death rate. This may be
due to aggressive testing.
• The disease has still not
significantly penetrated
outside the major hot
spots though UP and
Haryana are growing.
• Is it possible that social
distancing and other
control measures can be
more effectively
implemented in small
towns/rural areas? This
may lead to earlier peaking
out.

14. • Deaths/Day are showing a declining trend in all hot spot states
• In the Rest of India the trend is flattening. This is encouraging as with the return of migrant workers to their home states
we would have expected to see new flare ups. The only exceptions may be UP and Haryana (Gurgaon which is really an
extension of Delhi) where there is an increase but it’s not alarming as of now
• The flattening and beginning of a decline is visible in All India data also

15. Projection Model for India

16. Basis for Projection
• Most countries have seen a fall in new infections and deaths per day
after some time. Some countries like India have yet to experience
this.
• The response of various counties is different in terms of when this
decline started.
• Our model will use per capita deaths and infections on the day the
decline started in each country to model a possible scenario for India.
As stated earlier, deaths are a more reliable indicator than infections
for projection.

17. Herd Immunity and R0
• There is some speculation on why the virus has declined in so many countries.
• ‘Herd Immunity’ comes when approximately 60% of the population is immune
either by a vaccine or because they have had the disease already. This has not
happened anywhere in the world.
• Social distancing, hand washing, and masking can help to reduce the R0 value
even if Herd Immunity has not been achieved. Perhaps this is the reason why
infections and deaths have declined.
• This presentation and projection model does not seek to answer this question. It
is merely based on the empirical evidence of declines having taken place in most
countries.

18. Infections Deaths Infections Deaths
Malaysia 3.04.20 29.03.20 103 1
Thailand 29.04.20 NA 42 -
Indonesia 13.05.20 NA 57 -
Bangladesh NA NA - -
Pakistan NA NA - -
Turkey 11.04.20 19.04.20 619 24
Iran 30.03.20 4.04.20 495 41
Italy 26.03.20 27.03.20 1,333 151
Spain 1.04.20 2.04.20 2,227 221
France 3.04.20 15.04.20 1,171 263
Germany 2.04.20 15.04.20 1,012 45
Russia 11.05.20 NA 1,517 -
UK 6.05.20 21.04.20 2,962 298
USA 24.04.20 21.04.20 2,797 138
Brazil NA NA - -
Date of Decline Start Per Million on that date

19. Daily Deaths and Infections - Spain

20. Daily Deaths and Infections - Turkey

21. Country Wise Variations
• The disease has impacted various countries differently. Broadly, the following clusters
emerge:
• UK/USA are the worst hit. While deaths/day have started declining in both countries they will have a slow
recovery.
• Spain/France/Italy have had a very sharp increase followed by a steep fall.
• Germany is the outlier in Europe as they have managed to contain the infection better than other
neighbouring countries.
• Turkey and Iran in West Asia have fared better than their European counterparts. There is a ‘second wave’ of
infections happening in Iran but it may be due to enhanced testing as deaths/day continue to decline.
• South East Asia, Africa and ANZ have largely escaped the brunt of the disease.
• It is outside the scope of this discussion to assign reasons for this differential behaviour.
Speculation about natural immunity, BCG vaccination, endemic malaria, hot weather etc
are continuing.
• Based on the differential response, India looks set to behave more like its West Asian
counterparts. The rest of South Asia may also follow suit.

22. Projection Update
Population Per Mn Deaths on Day Decline Starts Projected Deaths on Day Decline Starts
Low Medium High Low Medium High
India 1,37,843,247 25 40 50 34,461 55,137 68,922
• As of now, the commencement of the decline in deaths/day is looking like it will start earlier than the trigger
points shown above.
• This has got distorted by the backlog death figures but we should have more clarity in the next week or so if
the trend in deaths/day continues to flatten and/or decline.

23. Directions
• The last 2 weeks have seen two significant trends and data anomalies:
• The 16th June backlog of deaths being added has distorted the graphs.
• Flattening/Decline in deaths/day at an All India level is becoming visible earlier than
predicted
• The return of migrant workers to states like UP/Bihar/West Bengal/Orissa has not
resulted in a spike in the deaths/day. The only ‘new’ states that are looking a bit
worrying right now are UP and Haryana (led by Gurgaon and NOIDA which may
be considered extensions of Delhi).
• Increased testing is leading to a larger discovery of cases. However as discussed
earlier this has little bearing on the progression of the pandemic.
• Overall, the situation is looking more encouraging than in May/Early June.

24. • Two representative country
curves have been shown here –
Italy and USA.
• After reaching its peak rapidly,
Italy has declined also rapidly.
• The build up in the USA has been
slower as the infection branched
out from the New York epicentre.
After reaching the peak,
infections have started declining
gradually. Parts of the USA are still
growing.
• It is likely that India will follow a
curve more like the USA.
Infections have been relatively
slow in building up and while
major cities in Western India may
be close to peaking the rest of the
country is still growing.

25. Thank You!
Please mail me at debubhatnagar@gmail.com
with any comments.
Disclaimer: These projections and analysis is not official and are the work of an
amateur. They should not be the basis of any decision making.