Highlights Cases and deaths continue to slowly decline. However there are some signs that cases are picking up again in some geographies In the next 30 days we may expect Deaths/Day to slowly decline further Key risk is of a second wave (possible but unlikely) caused either by a the existing variant or possibly a new one. Vaccination is too slow to provide herd immunity in the near future. India will have to rely on social distancing, masking etc for the foreseeable future

1. Covid 19 Stats in India –
Update 17
Review of key data and presentation of a projection model
Data updated till 14.02.21
Data Sources: https://www.covid19india.org/; https://www.worldometers.info/;
https://censusindia.gov.in/2011-prov-results/paper2/data_files/india/paper2_1.pdf
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-
chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&area
sRegional=ustx&byDate=0&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
https://www.mygov.in/aarogya-Setu-app/

2. A Declining Pandemic?

3. • At the Global level, cases and deaths
have started declining from early
January 2021
• Global vaccine doses have crossed 160
Mn with the USA alone having
administered close to 60 Mn doses
• Worries about new variants (UK and
modified UK and South Africa etc)
remain. Astra Zeneca vaccine ineffective
against the South African strain

4. Agenda
• Presentation of key data for All India
• State wise data
• Covid vaccine update for India
• Discussion

5. All India Data

6. • Testing has been slowly
declining. Current levels
are around 600,000 per day
• The % positive rate is
around 2%. Very recent
figures are trending
upwards as testing is
declining
We will continue to use Deaths, not Cases as the main parameter for analysis and
forecasting. However, we will look at recent trends in cases as an early warning

7. • Death rate is stable at 1.43%

8. • New Infections/Day after a plateau in November are
trending downwards. Highest point was on 16th
September at 97,856
• Active Infections are showing a similar trend. Highest point
was on 17th September at 10,17,718 active infections
• The load on the healthcare system has significantly
reduced from the peak in September
• New Infections are coming down more slowly now and
some geographies are beginning to show an upwards
trend

9. • A crest has formed in Deaths/Day. As mentioned
earlier, the peak of 1281 Deaths on 15.09.20 is
still holding (132 days)
• A plateau had formed at around 500 deaths/day
in November. However recent trends are a slow
decline. Sub 100 for 8 days now
• 7 DMA of daily deaths dipped below 100 on 7th
Feb and is currently at 92 – the same level as
Early May 2020. However it is showing signs of
plateauing

10. State Level Analysis

11. • Kerala is showing a slight
decline

12. • Maharashtra continues to be
a problem

13. India – Is a second wave
possible?

14. Cases per Day
and 7 DMA
• Several geographies are showing signs of bottoming out and a rise in cases again
• Covid fatigue and relaxation of restrictions may be the cause
• No information on variants as yet

15. Covid Vaccine Update for India

16. Vaccination Progress
• Vaccination has got off to a slow start from 16.01.21
• Vaccine hesitancy is there even amongst health care workers:
• Early adoption
• Some doubts on Covaxin
• Distance to vaccination sites
• 2nd jab has got off to a very slow start
• As the pandemic wanes, people feel that vaccination is not required
• Vital to open it to the private sector ASAP

17. Directions
• Cases and deaths continue to slowly decline. However there are some
signs that cases are picking up again in some geographies
• In the next 30 days we may expect Deaths/Day to slowly decline
further
• Key risk is of a second wave (possible but unlikely) caused either by a
the existing variant or possibly a new one. Vaccination is too slow to
provide herd immunity in the near future. India will have to rely on
social distancing, masking etc for the foreseeable future

18. Discussion

19. Thank You!
Please mail me at debubhatnagar@gmail.com
with any comments.
Disclaimer: These projections and analysis are not official and are the work of an
amateur. They should not be the basis of any decision making.