strategy for pandemics in future , learning from covid 19 pandemic

1. STRATEGIC PREPAREDNESS
AND RESPONSE PLAN
2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCOV)

2. WHO issue of plan - Dated 4th
Feb 2020

3. Epidemiological overview as of 1 February
2020
● A total of 11953 confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV have been reported worldwide
(figure 2);
● Of the total cases reported, 11821 cases have been reported from China;
● In China, 60.5% of all cases since the start of the outbreak have been reported from
Hubei Province. The remaining 39.5% of cases have been reported from 33
provinces, regions, and cities. After Hubei Province, the second largest number of
cases has been reported from Zhejiang Province (599 cases);
● 132 confirmed cases have been reported outside of China in 23 countries (figure 2);
● Of the cases reported outside China, 14 are due to secondary transmission;
● 259 deaths have been reported to date.

5. Risk assessment
● Likelihood of further spread: Human-to-human transmission,
including transmission within families and healthcare settings, has
been confirmed within Wuhan
● Potential impact on human health: The virus can cause severe illness
and death, although most cases appear to be mild. However, many
uncertainties remain
● Effectiveness of current preparedness and response measures

6. RESPONSE
STRATEGY
The overall goal of the
strategic preparedness and
response plan is to stop
further transmission of
2019-nCoV within China and to
other countries, and to
mitigate the impact of the
outbreak in all countries
● Limit human-to-human transmission, including reducing
secondary infections among close contacts and
healthcare workers, preventing transmission
amplification events, and preventing further international
spread from China;
● Identify, isolate, and care for patients early, including
providing optimized care for infected patients;
● Identify and reduce transmission from the animal
source;
● Address crucial unknowns regarding clinical severity,
extent of transmission and infection, treatment options,
and accelerate the development of diagnostics,
therapeutics, and vaccines;
● Communicate critical risk and event information to all
communities, and counter misinformation;
● Minimize social and economic impact through
multisectoral partnerships.

7. These objectives can be achieved by:
● A) Rapidly establishing international coordination and
operational support
● B) Scaling up country readiness and response operations
● C) Accelerating priority research and innovation

8. Rapidly establishing
international
coordination and
operational support
* Rapidly establishing
international coordination
to deliver strategic,
technical, and operational
support through existing
mechanisms and
partnerships;
● Epidemiological analysis and forecasting :To get ahead of the outbreak we
need to answer two urgent questions: 1) what is the extent of the outbreak
in China, and what is its most likely trajectory within China, and 2) what is
the risk and trajectory outside of China. Epidemiological analysis and
forecasting are the primary tools we have for answering these two
questions
● Risk communication and managing the infodemic
● Laboratory and diagnostics
● Technical expertise and guidance
○ Surveillance case definitions for human infection with 2019-nCovid
○ Interim guidance on laboratory testing of human cases suspected of
2019-nCoV infection, and protocols for molecular testing for
2019-nCoVid
○ Clinical management of severe acute respiratory infection when
2019-nCoV infection is suspected
○ Infection prevention and control during healthcare when 2019-nCoV
infection is suspected;
○ Home care for patients with suspected 2019-nCoV infection
presenting with mild symptoms and management of contacts;
○ Guidance on risk communication and community engagement and
initial response;
○ Recommendations on the prevention of transmission from animals
to humans;
○ Early investigations of suspected cases.
● Pandemic supply chain coordination

9. Scaling up country
readiness and
response operations
Scaling up country preparedness and
response operations, including
strengthening readiness to rapidly
identify, diagnose and treat cases;
identification and follow-up of
contacts when feasible (with priority
given to high-risk settings such as
healthcare facilities); infection
prevention and control in healthcare
settings; implementation of health
measures for travelers; and awareness
raising in the population though risk
communication and community
engagement.
● Country-level coordination
● Risk communication and community engagement
● Country-level coordination
● Surveillance
● Points of entry
● Rapid response teams
● Infection prevention and control
● National laboratory system
● Case management and continuity of essential
services

10. Accelerating
priority research
and innovation
Accelerating priority research and
innovation to support a clear and
transparent global process to set
research and innovation priorities
to fast track and scale-up research,
development, and the equitable
availability of candidate
therapeutics, vaccines, and
diagnostics. This will build a
common platform for standardized
processes, protocols and tools, to
facilitate multidisciplinary and
collaborative research integrated
with the response.
* Enhancing global coordination of all relevant
stakeholders
* Support a clear and transparent global research and
innovation priority setting process
* Build common platforms for standardized
processes, protocols and tools, as well as for sharing
specimens, data, and informat

13. WHO - Issue of plan on 1st Feb
2021
01/02/2021 - 31/01/2022

14. SITUATION OVERVIEW
Epidemiological situation :As of 7 February 2021, more than 105 million cases had been
reported worldwide, and more than 2.2 million people were reported to have died (figure 2). In
addition, increasing indirect mortality has been documented worldwide as health systems
disruptions associated with the pandemic and response

15. ● Most COVID-19 cases are in younger adults, but the risk of death from COVID-19
increases steeply with age.
● Over 80% of deaths occur in individuals over the age of 65 years old, with a case
fatality ratio of more than 10% in that age group.
● However, 16% of all deaths occur in individuals aged between 15 and 64 years old.
Comorbidities including non-communicable diseases (NCDs) also significantly
increase the risk of death, and there may be other factors that influence the
outcomes of COVID-19 that are yet to be understood, especially in low-resource and
humanitarian settings for which there is a lack of comparative data.measures have
impacted care for other health conditions.

16. Sporadic cases and clusters rapidly controlled

17. A lack of critical resources for
infection prevention, such as masks
and water; and the absence of robust
public health infrastructure to detect
cases and quarantine and support
contacts in order to break chains of
transmission
The increase in
transmission
intensity observed
during the final
quarter of 2020
was driven
primarily by
increased social
mixing
precipitated by the
premature, rapid
and simultaneous
(rather than step-
wise) lifting of
public health and
social measures

18. Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants
Viruses constantly change through mutation, and so the continual
emergence of new variants of SARS-CoV-2 has been expected
● some mutations can arise that confer an adaptive advantage to the
virus, giving rise to variants of concern. Such changes may enable the
virus to spread more easily in certain conditions, may alter some of the
clinical characteristics of the disease, and/or reduce the effectiveness
of medical countermeasures including vaccines, therapeutics and
diagnostics.

19. STRATEGIC PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE PLAN

21. National-level preparedness and response
● Pillar 1: Coordination, planning, financing, and monitoring d response
● Pillar 2: Risk communication, community engagement (RCCE) and infodemic
management
● Pillar 3: Surveillance, epidemiological investigation, contact tracing, and
adjustment of public health and social measures
● Pillar 4: Points of entry, international travel and transport, and mass gatherings
● Pillar 5: Laboratories and diagnostics
● Pillar 6: Infection prevention and control, and protection of the health
workforce
● Pillar 7: Case management, clinical operations, and therapeutics
● Pillar 8: Operational support and logistics, and supply chains
● Pillar 9: Maintaining essential health services and systems
● Pillar 10: Vaccination

23. COVID-19 is a crisis that touches every
aspect of every society,
and our collective response has had to
encompass that broad range of needs
and requirements on a global scale.

24. Many countries continue to
face steep increases in cases
and deaths, despite the fact
that more than 5 billion
vaccines have now been
administered worldwide.

25. Thanks!
Dr Goutham B M
ajjargoutham@gmail.com