Az eddig beérkezett adatok alapján akár 5%-kal is nőhetett a hazai GDP az első negyedévben. Az év első felében nagyon erős dinamikára számítunk, a második félévben azonban az egyre intenzívebb import-kereslet és bázishatás miatt már lassulni fog a gazdaság bővülése, 2019-ben pedig 3%-ig mérséklődhet a növekedési ütem.
A piaci konszenzusnál erősebben, az OTP Bank Elemzési Központjának előrejelzésénél gyengébben alakult az első negyedéves GDP. Az adat megerősítette az OTP elemzőinek az idei év egészére vonatkozó 4%-os növekedési várakozását, a kockázatok felfelé mutatnak.
Modelling Investment - Forecasts for the UK Economy 2016John Ashcroft
Modelling Investment - Forecasts for the UK Economy 2016. Published in association with the December Economic Outlook, we outline our sectoral forecasts of investment in the UK
The saturday economist uk economic outlook march 2016John Ashcroft
The Saturday Economist : UK Economic Outlook March 2016, Drink with me to days gone by : Service Sector (Leisure Sector) continues to drive output in the UK economy, We expect GDP growth of 2.6% this year slowing to 2.5% in 2017.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, June 2017 DIXI Group
Highlights
The government drafted a pension reform and introduced the bills to the Parliament. In its updated memorandum, the IMF is also demanding a land reform and additional measures against corruption. We think the next IMF tranche may be released after the summer break, likely in autumn 2017.
Recent economic indicators point to better economic conditions: Q1 GDP has been slightly revised upwards to 2.5% yoy, and the May figures for industrial production (1.2% yoy) and retail sales (10.7% yoy) have been better than expected. Nevertheless, with cumulative industrial output down in the first five months of 2017, we lowered our GDP growth estimate for 2017 from 2% to 1.5% yoy.
The inflation rate accelerated to 13.5 % yoy in May, due to higher food prices. Nevertheless, the National Bank may cut the key interest rate further by 50bp to 12% in order to support economic growth at its next meeting on Thursday, 6 July.
FX reserves reached USD 17.6 bn in end-May, given a favourable situation on the FX market allowing for FX purchases. The exchange rate traded rather stable around USD/UAH 26.
The NBU tweaked FX market regulation, simplifying investment abroad and FX forward transactions as well as introducing electronic FX transfer licenses for individuals.
A piaci konszenzusnál erősebben, az OTP Bank Elemzési Központjának előrejelzésénél gyengébben alakult az első negyedéves GDP. Az adat megerősítette az OTP elemzőinek az idei év egészére vonatkozó 4%-os növekedési várakozását, a kockázatok felfelé mutatnak.
Modelling Investment - Forecasts for the UK Economy 2016John Ashcroft
Modelling Investment - Forecasts for the UK Economy 2016. Published in association with the December Economic Outlook, we outline our sectoral forecasts of investment in the UK
The saturday economist uk economic outlook march 2016John Ashcroft
The Saturday Economist : UK Economic Outlook March 2016, Drink with me to days gone by : Service Sector (Leisure Sector) continues to drive output in the UK economy, We expect GDP growth of 2.6% this year slowing to 2.5% in 2017.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, June 2017 DIXI Group
Highlights
The government drafted a pension reform and introduced the bills to the Parliament. In its updated memorandum, the IMF is also demanding a land reform and additional measures against corruption. We think the next IMF tranche may be released after the summer break, likely in autumn 2017.
Recent economic indicators point to better economic conditions: Q1 GDP has been slightly revised upwards to 2.5% yoy, and the May figures for industrial production (1.2% yoy) and retail sales (10.7% yoy) have been better than expected. Nevertheless, with cumulative industrial output down in the first five months of 2017, we lowered our GDP growth estimate for 2017 from 2% to 1.5% yoy.
The inflation rate accelerated to 13.5 % yoy in May, due to higher food prices. Nevertheless, the National Bank may cut the key interest rate further by 50bp to 12% in order to support economic growth at its next meeting on Thursday, 6 July.
FX reserves reached USD 17.6 bn in end-May, given a favourable situation on the FX market allowing for FX purchases. The exchange rate traded rather stable around USD/UAH 26.
The NBU tweaked FX market regulation, simplifying investment abroad and FX forward transactions as well as introducing electronic FX transfer licenses for individuals.
E-UPDates—A Monthly Statistical Bulletin of Economic IndicatorsEcofin Surge
Monthly statistical e-bulletin comprising a quick review of the economy and about 30 tables and some charts with the latest available economic/financial market indicators, both Indian and Global.
Stock markets registered broadly negative
trends in December, with falls of 0.4% for the
US S&P500, 2.3% for European DJ Stoxx50,
5.0% for the Italian FTSE MIB and 2.5% for
the DJ EuroStoxx Utilities sector index.
Stock markets, particularly those in Europe,
have been adversely affected by concerns
about political instability in Greece, as well
as by the weak economic situation in Eurozone
countries.
Federgon members (private employment agencies) can expect a slight improvement in market conditions in the coming months due to the somewhat more favorable economic outlook. Even with a growth forecast of 1% to 1.2% in 2014 recovery will only be partial.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, September 2017 DIXI Group
Highlights
In September, Ukraine returned to the Eurobond market, issuing USD 3 bn with a maturity of 15 years at a yield of 7.375%. The return to the market happened amidst a highly supportive global market environment, but also due to regained financial stability and reform progress at home. As Ukraine repurchased outstanding bond issues due in 2019 and 2020, repayment risks have fallen.
Ukraine adopted a juridical and a pension reform in Parliament, which should accelerate the approval of another IMF loan tranche. Now much depends on the implementation of these reforms. However, a land reform has been postponed, which might reduce the amount of a prospective IMF payout.
Healthy economic growth continued: GDP increased by 2.3% yoy and 0.6% qoq in the second quarter on a cyclical rebound in private household demand and a surge in investment from low levels. The economic blockade in Donbas hit less than expected, opening an upside to our cautious GDP estimate of 1.5% growth for this year.
Inflation remained at an elevated level of 16.2% yoy in August, but with a negligible mom decline from July. Nevertheless, the higher than anticipated inflation kept the NBU from lowering further the key rate. With some fiscal loosening ahead, the NBU might even switch into reverse gear and tighten policy, i.e. hike the rate in coming months (in case of growing inflationary risks).
The UAH lost some of its strength on seasonal factors moving higher to USD/UAH 26.60. Further depreciation risks are partly mitigated by the improved external financing situation given the recent bond issue.
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI - March 2018 SlidepackRichard Ramsey
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
March 2017 Survey Update
Issued 16th April 2018
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The global economy effects on commodity dependent countries like zambiaKampamba Shula
On the 17th of November 18, 2016 I made a presentation at the FNB Financial Journalism academy on “The Global Economy Effects on Commodity dependent countries like Zambia”. It was well received. Below are some of the highlights
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, July 2017 DIXI Group
Highlights
On 13 July, the Ukrainian Parliament approved a draft of the pension reform in the first reading. Thus, Ukraine moved one step closer to the next IMF tranche, and in our base case scenario the fourth review may be accomplished and the fifth tranche be released this fall.
After the decline in industrial output earlier this year, recent development shows a return to growth. Retail sales dynamics remain strong. Nevertheless, the National Bank slightly cut its growth estimate for this year on the weak H1 and a weaker harvest estimate. We keep our conservative growth estimate of 1.5% yoy for the time being.
Inflation surprised to the upside to 15.6% on higher food prices in June. We now see growing risk that inflation may leave targeted for this year range (8% yoy +/-2 pp) from the upper bound, i.e. resulting in low double-digit inflation at year-end. So far, we keep our 2017 forecast at 9.5% yoy (eop).
UAH strengthened vis-a-vis the dollar in July, falling below the level of USD/UAH 26 and allowing the NBU to increase FX reserves to almost USD 18 bn. With inflation risks elevated, the NBU stopped cutting its key rate and kept it stable at 12.5% in July and August. However, some additional restrictions on the FX market were removed or may be removed soon.
According to our opinion 2018 is going to be a crucial pivot year that will define Greek economic standards for the years to come.
In some respects 2018 can be characterized as a “low risk” year with no new fiscal measures to be enacted and very low debt redemptions which minimizes the refinancing risk of the Greek Sovereign.
At the same time though 2018 is also a “decisions time” as a number of very significant issues - that up to now have been postponed - have to be decided. The agenda includes the debt sustainability / restructuring issue, the conclusion of 4th review, the precautionary line / cash buffer decision as well as the post-program monitoring process.
E-UPDates—A Monthly Statistical Bulletin of Economic IndicatorsEcofin Surge
Monthly statistical e-bulletin comprising a quick review of the economy and about 30 tables and some charts with the latest available economic/financial market indicators, both Indian and Global.
Stock markets registered broadly negative
trends in December, with falls of 0.4% for the
US S&P500, 2.3% for European DJ Stoxx50,
5.0% for the Italian FTSE MIB and 2.5% for
the DJ EuroStoxx Utilities sector index.
Stock markets, particularly those in Europe,
have been adversely affected by concerns
about political instability in Greece, as well
as by the weak economic situation in Eurozone
countries.
Federgon members (private employment agencies) can expect a slight improvement in market conditions in the coming months due to the somewhat more favorable economic outlook. Even with a growth forecast of 1% to 1.2% in 2014 recovery will only be partial.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, September 2017 DIXI Group
Highlights
In September, Ukraine returned to the Eurobond market, issuing USD 3 bn with a maturity of 15 years at a yield of 7.375%. The return to the market happened amidst a highly supportive global market environment, but also due to regained financial stability and reform progress at home. As Ukraine repurchased outstanding bond issues due in 2019 and 2020, repayment risks have fallen.
Ukraine adopted a juridical and a pension reform in Parliament, which should accelerate the approval of another IMF loan tranche. Now much depends on the implementation of these reforms. However, a land reform has been postponed, which might reduce the amount of a prospective IMF payout.
Healthy economic growth continued: GDP increased by 2.3% yoy and 0.6% qoq in the second quarter on a cyclical rebound in private household demand and a surge in investment from low levels. The economic blockade in Donbas hit less than expected, opening an upside to our cautious GDP estimate of 1.5% growth for this year.
Inflation remained at an elevated level of 16.2% yoy in August, but with a negligible mom decline from July. Nevertheless, the higher than anticipated inflation kept the NBU from lowering further the key rate. With some fiscal loosening ahead, the NBU might even switch into reverse gear and tighten policy, i.e. hike the rate in coming months (in case of growing inflationary risks).
The UAH lost some of its strength on seasonal factors moving higher to USD/UAH 26.60. Further depreciation risks are partly mitigated by the improved external financing situation given the recent bond issue.
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI - March 2018 SlidepackRichard Ramsey
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
March 2017 Survey Update
Issued 16th April 2018
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The global economy effects on commodity dependent countries like zambiaKampamba Shula
On the 17th of November 18, 2016 I made a presentation at the FNB Financial Journalism academy on “The Global Economy Effects on Commodity dependent countries like Zambia”. It was well received. Below are some of the highlights
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, July 2017 DIXI Group
Highlights
On 13 July, the Ukrainian Parliament approved a draft of the pension reform in the first reading. Thus, Ukraine moved one step closer to the next IMF tranche, and in our base case scenario the fourth review may be accomplished and the fifth tranche be released this fall.
After the decline in industrial output earlier this year, recent development shows a return to growth. Retail sales dynamics remain strong. Nevertheless, the National Bank slightly cut its growth estimate for this year on the weak H1 and a weaker harvest estimate. We keep our conservative growth estimate of 1.5% yoy for the time being.
Inflation surprised to the upside to 15.6% on higher food prices in June. We now see growing risk that inflation may leave targeted for this year range (8% yoy +/-2 pp) from the upper bound, i.e. resulting in low double-digit inflation at year-end. So far, we keep our 2017 forecast at 9.5% yoy (eop).
UAH strengthened vis-a-vis the dollar in July, falling below the level of USD/UAH 26 and allowing the NBU to increase FX reserves to almost USD 18 bn. With inflation risks elevated, the NBU stopped cutting its key rate and kept it stable at 12.5% in July and August. However, some additional restrictions on the FX market were removed or may be removed soon.
According to our opinion 2018 is going to be a crucial pivot year that will define Greek economic standards for the years to come.
In some respects 2018 can be characterized as a “low risk” year with no new fiscal measures to be enacted and very low debt redemptions which minimizes the refinancing risk of the Greek Sovereign.
At the same time though 2018 is also a “decisions time” as a number of very significant issues - that up to now have been postponed - have to be decided. The agenda includes the debt sustainability / restructuring issue, the conclusion of 4th review, the precautionary line / cash buffer decision as well as the post-program monitoring process.
According to the latest information, the Finnish economy achieved moderate GDP growth in 2016. Consumer and business surveys have improved and point to healthy growth ahead.
OP’s economists expect Finnish GDP to rise 1.8% this year and 2.0% next year. This is the first time the 2018 growth forecast is issued. The 2017 growth forecast is 0.4 percentage points higher than in the adjusted prediction issued in November 2016.
Economic growth in 2016 relied on consumer spending and construction. This year GDP growth will rest on a broader foundation. Exports and corporate investments will also recover. Prerequisites for stronger export growth in 2018 are in place. Construction growth, on the other hand, will slow down from the recent high level.
Highlights:
* Fastest GDP growth in 6 years
* Inflation slightly down
* Dynamic year for retail trade
In Focus.
Four years in the euro area – have the promises come true? author: Egils Kaužēns
Swiss Re sigma 3/2019: World insurance: the great pivot east continuesΔρ. Γιώργος K. Κασάπης
Global insurance premium volumes passed a new benchmark high of USD 5 trillion in 2018. Global life premium growth was weak, but there was solid performance in non-life in 2018.
The central narrative of this year's annual world insurance sigma is the continued rise of the emerging markets, mostly emerging Asia and China in particular, as the main drivers of industry growth. From 11% in 2018, China's share of global premiums will rise to 20% by 2029. China remains on course to become the world's biggest insurance market by mid-2030s. The whole of Asia-Pacific will account for 42% of the global premiums by 2029.
Swiss Re Institute forecasts close to 3% global premium growth in real terms per annum in 2019/20, against a slowing but still positive economic backdrop. Advanced market premiums will grow by 1.5%, and emerging markets by 7.9%. China will be the largest contributor, in both life and non-life. Overall, however, the advanced markets will still provide almost half of additional premiums in absolute terms in the next two years.
Argentina. the 2017 economy starting to growAdm Red
In 2017 Argentina’s economy started to grow again at a time when primary fiscal deficit and inflation rate fell simultaneously. Another key point, the tax burden as a percentage of GDP fell also. Do you want to know more? Check out the following figures to see how Argentina did it last year and find some forecasts for 2018.
The boom becomes less pronounced but continues. This year, the growth of exports will not reach the peak figures of last year but the growth will to some extent pick up speed again in next year. The quickly decreased unemployment rate will continue to drop. An analysis of long-term employment growth by age group shows that positive employment growth is concentrated on the one hand on younger employees and, on the other hand, older employees, whereas the employment rate of men aged 25–34 is growing smaller. The government budget policy is too expansive, given the economic situation.
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxWrito-Finance
financial assets represent claim for future benefit or cash. Financial assets are formed by establishing contracts between participants. These financial assets are used for collection of huge amounts of money for business purposes.
Two major Types: Debt Securities and Equity Securities.
Debt Securities are Also known as fixed-income securities or instruments. The type of assets is formed by establishing contracts between investor and issuer of the asset.
• The first type of Debit securities is BONDS. Bonds are issued by corporations and government (both local and national government).
• The second important type of Debit security is NOTES. Apart from similarities associated with notes and bonds, notes have shorter term maturity.
• The 3rd important type of Debit security is TRESURY BILLS. These securities have short-term ranging from three months, six months, and one year. Issuer of such securities are governments.
• Above discussed debit securities are mostly issued by governments and corporations. CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSITS CDs are issued by Banks and Financial Institutions. Risk factor associated with CDs gets reduced when issued by reputable institutions or Banks.
Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk
There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.
Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.
Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument
<a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth.
Concluding remarks
Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
How to get verified on Coinbase Account?_.docxBuy bitget
t's important to note that buying verified Coinbase accounts is not recommended and may violate Coinbase's terms of service. Instead of searching to "buy verified Coinbase accounts," follow the proper steps to verify your own account to ensure compliance and security.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
1. www.otpresearch.com
BUSINESS CYCLE TRENDS, HUNGARY
BUSINESS CYCLE REPORT
19 April 2018
Hungary's economy started 2018 on a high note;
risks to our 4% annual growth forecast are tilted to the upside
After hitting a higher-than-expected 4.4% YoY growth in 2017Q4 and bringing the whole-
year expansion figure to 4.0%, the economy started off 2018 strongly. All short-term
business indicators (e.g. industrial and construction production, retail sales, real estate
market, borrowing, tourism, and passenger vehicles sales figures) paint similarly good
picture as in 2017Q4. Our month-on-month, normalized GDP tracker shows very slight
deceleration in 2018 January/February for non-farm private GDP growth, but this indicator
underscored the hard data for 2017Q4. As agriculture's growth contribution may be similar to
that in 2017Q4, GDP growth in 2018Q1 may approach 5% YoY. The important message is
that ever since the economy revived at the beginning of 2017 from the shock of sudden stop
of EU fund inflow in 2016, it has maintained stable and strong growth momentum. We
foresee above-4% growth in 2018H1 and deceleration in the second half of the year as
capacity bottlenecks will increasingly direct strong demand toward external sources,
contributing to the deteriorating external balance. Besides, the non-profit sector’s GDP was
boosted in 2017Q3, which is unlikely to be repeated this year. Our actual forecast for 2018 is
4.0% YoY; upon the strong year-start, we see the risk to be tilted to the upside. In 2019,
expansion may decelerate to 3.0% YoY, driven by fading investment activity, accelerating
inflation and, as a result, the beginning of monetary policy normalization, as well as the effect
of deteriorating external surplus.
Household consumption has very robust momentum. In 2017 the growth contribution of
investment and consumption was quite similar, this year households' consumption may be
the most remarkable driver. At the beginning of 2018 confidence indicators rose further and
are approaching all-time high levels. Retail sales grew by 7.2% YoY in January-February
2018 after expanding by 5.0% YoY in 2017 and by 6.1% YoY in 2017Q4. Domestic tourism
nights spent by Hungarian residents are sky-rocketing, after some decline over 2017H1,
when preparations for the World Aquatics Championship brought fast price hikes. Since the
sports event, prices have moderated and this is fuelling domestic demand. Sales of
passenger vehicles follow an exponential path, exceeding 120,000 (annualized monthly),
which is near our estimated long-term equilibrium level of 150,000-170,000 (a panel
estimation, based on the relative income and development level of each country).
Households’ credit accumulation follows a stable uptrend, in terms of both consumer and
housing loans, and as Hungarian penetration lags behind the regional average, we foresee
this to continue over the medium term. Unemployment rate is at historical low. Real wages'
growth, although slowing, is still elevated.
Capacity constraints and tight labour market conditions have boosted fixed investment for a
while and this will go on in 2018 as well. The construction sector is set to record another
impressive year as private demand is still strong and the government submitted enormous
amount of new orders at the end of 2017, in connection with the year-end spending spree.
(However, government investment expansion is likely to deteriorate from the excellent 2017
level of 73% YoY to around 25% YoY.) The construction production is boosted by the 5%
VAT on this sector, which is to remain in effect until January 2020 according to the recent
legislation, and is likely to encourage developers to bring projects forward – if they are able
to find enough workforce to do so. From 2020 onward the VAT reduction is expected to
lessen, and the 18% VAT rate could return, because such a policy requires the consent of
the EU whose bodies are unlikely to support the extension of this very low rate. According to
media reports, the old-new government plans to add new measures under the Home
Subsidy Scheme for Families, while infrastructural spending is likely to increase. Office
market developments are likely to continue, vacancy rates decreased further, to new
historical lows. However, there are signs that the housing market boom may be approaching
a peak: the transaction number of existing homes has not increased since the middle of
2016, and according to the statistical office's latest publication the price rally of existing
homes also seems to have subsided.
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+36 1 288 7561
SoványA@otpbank.hu
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András Marton
+36 1 288 7523
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+36 1 288 7514
Horvath.Jozsef@otpbank.hu
Money Market Desk
Gábor Fazekas
+36 1 288 7536
FazekasGa@otpbank.hu
Gábor Heidrich
+36 1 288 7534
HeidrichG@otpbank.hu
Judit Szombath
+36 1 288 7533
SzombathJ@otpbank.hu
FX Option Desk
Gábor Réthy
+36 1 288 7524
RethyG@otpbank.hu
Máté Kelemen
+36 1 288 7525
KelemenMat@otpbank.hu
Analyst
Gábor Dunai
+36 1 374 7272
DunaiG@otpbank.hu
2. www.otpresearch.com
BUSINESS CYCLE TRENDS, HUNGARY
The industrial sector's production slightly accelerated in 2018Q1. It is worth noting that this is
driven almost entirely by domestic demand. The previous engine of the economy, vehicle
production, and the related exports have not been able to meet the strengthening external
demand perhaps due to capacity constraints (see charts in the indicators of external demand
section). These eventual constraints are expected to ease over 2018 as the extension of
Mercedes-Benz plant in Kecskemét proceeds. However, the lack of proper labour force
remains an issue. Germany's as well as the eurozone's confidence indices lost some
momentum recently but they are still close to historical highs. The trade balance of goods
has been deteriorating since 2016Q1, and although 2018 brought some relief, we expect
imports to gain impetus later, hence net exports’ growth contribution may decline further.
Nom-farm private GDP dynamics and our GDP tracker
(monthly data, normalized, YoY)
Sources: HCSO, OTP Research
3. www.otpresearch.com
BUSINESS CYCLE TRENDS, HUNGARY
Summary table of main macroeconomic indicators
Key economic indicators
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2018F 2019F 2018F 2019F
Nominal GDP (at current prices, bn HUF) 27 086 28 166 28 661 30 127 32 400 33 999 35 005 37 520 39 988 42 579 39 992 42 358
Real GDP change 0,7% 1,7% -1,6% 2,1% 4,2% 3,4% 2,2% 4,0% 4,0% 3,0% 3,6% 3,0% 3,7% 3,1%
Household final consumption -2,8% 0,7% -2,2% 0,5% 2,1% 3,1% 4,2% 4,1% 4,0% 3,9% 4,0% 3,2%
Household consumption expenditure -2,8% 0,7% -2,2% 0,2% 2,5% 3,4% 4,9% 4,7% 4,6% 4,6%
Collective consumption 2,2% 0,0% -0,3% 6,5% 9,2% 0,6% 0,1% -0,4% 1,1% 1,1% 102,2% 202,2%
Gross fixed capital formation -9,5% -1,3% -3,0% 9,8% 9,9% 1,9% -15,5% 16,8% 7,4% 0,3% 1,5% 1,5%
Exports 11,3% 6,5% -1,8% 4,2% 9,8% 7,7% 5,8% 7,1% 6,4% 6,0%
Imports 10,2% 4,4% -3,5% 4,5% 10,9% 6,1% 5,7% 9,7% 6,3% 6,3%
General goverment balance (ESA'10 based, HUF bn) -1218 -1532 -691 -793 -895 -684 -667 -718 -855 -747
in percent of GDP -4,5% -5,4% -2,4% -2,6% -2,7% -2,0% -1,9% -1,9% -2,1% -1,8% -2,4% -2,3%
General goverment debt (in percent of GDP) 80,1% 80,3% 77,9% 76,3% 75,6% 75,5% 74,7% 72,1% 71,3% 68,3% 71,0% 69,7%
Current account (EUR bn)* 0,3 0,8 1,7 3,9 1,6 3,9 6,8 3,6 2,1 1,4 4,0 3,7
in percent of GDP 0,3% 0,7% 1,8% 3,8% 1,5% 3,5% 6,1% 2,9% 1,6% 1,0% 3,1% 2,7%
Gross nominal wages** 2,0% 3,8% 5,9% 3,8% 3,6% 4,3% 6,5% 11,9% 8,1% 6,8%
Gross real wages -2,7% -0,2% 0,2% 2,0% 3,8% 4,4% 6,1% 9,3% 6,0% 4,1%
Gross disposable income*** 2,0% 6,7% 1,6% 2,7% 4,2% 4,4% 2,7% 7,3% 5,9% 4,9%
Gross real disposable income -2,7% 2,6% -3,8% 1,0% 4,4% 4,4% 2,3% 4,8% 3,8% 2,2%
Employment (annual change) -0,4% 0,7% 1,8% 1,7% 5,3% 2,7% 3,4% 1,7% 0,6% 0,3%
Employment domestic concept w/o public workers -1,5% 0,3% -0,2% 0,5% 3,3% 1,5% 3,3% 3,0% 1,3% 0,9%
Unemployment rate (annual average) 11,2% 11,0% 11,0% 10,2% 7,7% 6,8% 5,1% 4,2% 4,2% 4,2% 4,1% 4,0%
Inflation (annual average) 4,9% 3,9% 5,7% 1,7% -0,2% -0,1% 0,4% 2,4% 2,0% 2,6% 2,6% 3,0% 2,8% 2,9%
Base rate (end of year) 5,75% 7,00% 5,75% 3,00% 2,10% 1,35% 0,90% 0,90% 0,90% 1,05% 0,93% 1,24%
1Y Treasury Bill (average) 5,6% 6,2% 7,0% 4,11% 2,28% 1,17% 0,77% 0,09% 0,01% 0,52%
Real interest rate (average, ex post) 0,7% 2,1% 1,3% 2,3% 2,5% 1,2% 0,4% -2,3% -1,9% -2,0%
EUR/HUF exchange rate (average) 275,3 279,3 289,3 297,0 308,6 309,9 311,5 309,3 308,7 308,8 309,0 306,0
EUR/HUF exchange rate (end of year) 278,8 311,1 291,3 296,9 314,9 313,1 311,0 310,1 308,0 309,5 307,0 305,0
Sources: CSO, MNB, OTP Bank
*: Official data of balance of payments (excluding net errors and ommissions)
***: Calculation based on financial accounts data
Focus Economics EC Winter 2018
2018.03.
**: Total wages including accrual based salaries in governmental sector. In the case of private sector
wages we calculated with whitening effect filtered wages and we adjusted the changeable seasonality of
the bonus payments.
OTP
4. www.otpresearch.com
BUSINESS CYCLE TRENDS, HUNGARY
Indicators of domestic demand – Consumption
Chart 1: Consumer confidence
(monthly data, balance index)
1. Chart 2: Consumer confidence and retail trade
(monthly data, SA, 3M MA of annual changes, % and
balance indicator)
Sources: Eurostat, OTP Research Sources: Eurostat, HCSO, OTP Research
Chart 3: New passenger vehicle registrations
(annualized monthly, YoY, SA)
2. Chart 4: Tourism nights, spent by domestic visitors
(monthly, SA, mn)
Sources: ACEA, OTP Research Source: CSO, OTP Research
Chart 5: New business of household loans
(monthly, HUF bn, SA)
3. Chart 6: Transaction number of existing homes
(monthly sum, SA)
Sources: MNB, OTP Research Source: CSO, OTP Research
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BUSINESS CYCLE TRENDS, HUNGARY
Indicators of domestic demand – Investments
Chart 1: Construction production
(SA, 2015 = 100)
4. Chart 2: Orders stock of construction
(SA, 2000 = 100)
Sources: HCSO, OTP Research Sources: HCSO, OTP Research
Chart 3: Building permits and completed dwellings
(ann quarterly data, SA)
5. Chart 4: Home prices
(2015 quarterly average = 100, SA)
Sources: HCSO, OTP Research Source: HCSO, OTP Research
Chart 5: Investment rate in the private sector
(SWDA, in % of private GDP)
6. Chart 6: Investment rate in the public sector
(SWDA, in % of GDP)
Sources: HCSO, OTP Research Sources: HCSO, OTP Research
6. www.otpresearch.com
BUSINESS CYCLE TRENDS, HUNGARY
Indicators of external demand
Chart 1: IFO* and EC sentiment indicators
(monthly data, balance indicator)
1.Chart 2: External demand
(SA, YoY, %)
Sources: Reuters, Eurostat, OTP Research
*: current situation sub-index
Sources: HCSO, OTP Research
Chart 3: Trade balance
(monthly data, SWDA, EUR mn)
7. Chart 4: Export sales of manufacturing
(SA, 2015 = 100)
Sources: HCSO, OTP Research Sources: HCSO, OTP Research
Chart 5: Business confidence in industry, Germany
(monthly data, SWDA, balance)
8. Chart 6: Business confidence in industry, Hungary
(monthly data, SWDA, balance)
Sources: Eurostat, OTP Research Sources: Eurostat, OTP Research
7. www.otpresearch.com
BUSINESS CYCLE TRENDS, HUNGARY
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