The document is an interview with Juan Zarate on counterterrorism and emerging security threats, highlighting the evolving nature of terrorism and its implications for U.S. foreign policy. Zarate discusses the impact of geopolitical dynamics, especially in the Middle East and the rise of al-Qaeda and its franchises, as well as the necessity of integrating counterterrorism within a broader foreign policy strategy. He emphasizes the importance of economic and social power alongside military capabilities in shaping global security and American influence.

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‘ Global Themes
an issues brief series of the Dallas Committee on Foreign Relations
DCFR
Dallas Committee on Foreign Relations
Issue No. 7 December 20, 2012
Counterterrorism and Emerging Security Threats
An Interview with Juan Zarate, senior security analyst CBS News and former deputy assistant to the
President and deputy national security adviser
The following interview offers a
“In the long term, the perception of the U.S. and how we use military power is
wealth of knowledge about security
a critical dimension as to how our enemies, competitors, and friends view the
and counterterrorism through
comments on diverse topics such as nature of American power and its resilience.”
al-­Qaeda’s metastasized activities,
to how the U.S. needs to articulate a
because it has so many broad ending anytime soon. What the U.S.
strategic view to counter terrorism of
implications. does about it will be critical. Many of
the future and offer leadership.
these security issues are interrelated,
2) The direction of the Middle East. of course.
Jennifer Warren:
In the context of the “Arab Spring,”
emergent security threats?
“Arab Revolutions” or “Arab 3) Iran. This country is part of the
Juan Zarate: Winter,” the question is: “Where is geopolitical milieu in the Middle
this heading?” Does it mean positive East, and their march to nuclear
1) The changing face of terrorism. developments, the end of autocracy, power is hugely important. Tension
We’ve talked about terrorism in the and the movement toward freedom
context of al-­Qaeda since 9/11. The with citizens demanding more of or an arms race in the Middle East.
really interesting and dangerous their government for minorities’ or The Middle East is more volatile and
question is: How has al-­Qaeda women’s rights? Or does it become
morphed and metastasized? How an opportunity, as in other revolutions
has its ideology become embedded historically, for extremist forces, like
around the world in various groups the Bolsheviks, for example? Will in existence. You not only have the
and in different ways? How will that hard-­line Islamists take full advantage obvious problems – the problems
be taken advantage of in politically-­ and gain power and ascendency, and festering in Syria or Iran marching
vulnerable places like Egypt and then actually restrict freedom at the toward nuclear power – but you
Syria? The terrorism that in some end of the day, both on personal and
ways originated with al-­Qaeda and on political levels?
its ideology and methodology has Juan Zarate, former deputy assistant to
evolved over time. The discussion The direction of the region has a the President and senior national security
and confusion around Benghazi and major impact on the security of the
analyst, CBS News, presented his work
world. We witnessed that recently
on countererrorism and emerging security
of a lack of clarity as to how we’re threats at DCFR on November 29, 2012.
thinking about current terrorist threats and Israel. This tension is festering in
His new book, “Treasury’s War: How
in 2012 versus how we thought about Bankers and Operatives Unleashed a New
it in 2001. That is very important Egypt, not to mention Benghazi and
Libya. These developments are not Era of Financial Warfare” is forthcoming.
4925 Greenville Ave, Suite 1025 | Dallas, Texas 75206 | 214.750.1271 | dallascfr.org

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“How has al-­Qaeda morphed and metastasized? The terrorism that in some
between Sunni and Shia that persists ways originated with al-­Qaeda and its ideology and methodology has evolved
over time...”
play.
in a sense? What does that mean for Counterterrorism efforts
There is the challenge of the Kurds
in the region and how that’s playing there? In that context, the South JW: How would you characterize past
out. For example, the Syrians have China Sea, Taiwan, and even North counterterrorism efforts of the last 10
made a deal and a pact with certain Korea are very important. How does
Kurdish terrorist groups to align Asia unfold in the context of the rise to what you think the future looks
against Turkey which is part of the of a very important China and other like in this area?
reason you’re seeing an uptick in Asian powers like India?
violence in Turkey — a real problem. JZ: This is a fundamental question. It
At the same time, violence in Iraq The second wildcard is the South is one that hasn’t been fully addressed
is growing;; the Kurds to the north Asian powder keg. People tend to or articulated, certainly not for the
are concerned. The Kurds in Syria forget how potentially volatile the American people but also internally
are concerned about what sectarian region is, particularly Pakistan. within the U.S. government in terms
war will mean at the end of the day Pakistan in the near future will of strategy. I think there have been
for them. So there are these grand become an even
undercurrent problems. greater nuclear power,
4) How the U.S. handles warzones. Britain, in terms of
The fallout in Iraq revolves partly its nuclear stockpiles.
around the lack of American We’ve seen a rise of
presence. The U.S. pullout in extremism manifest in
Afghanistan and the picture that a variety of ways, not
emerges post-­2014 is important. In just militant groups
places like Yemen, North Africa (with that exist with relative
al-­Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb), impunity. But we also
or Somalia —how we approach see the incidences
these warzones has both short-­ and where it is clear that
long-­term implications. In the short Pakistani society is
term, we have U.S. men and women undergoing severe
in harm’s way in Afghanistan, strains: the shooting
for example. In the long term, the of Malala Yousafzai is
perception of the U.S. and how sort of an emblematic
we use military power is a critical case recently. Let us not fail to chapters in our counterterrorism
dimension as to how our enemies, mention all of the other assassinations strategy and policy that have evolved
competitors, and friends view the and violent things that happened
nature of American power and its in the last couple of years. There is There was a focus on nationalist-­
resilience. driven terrorist groups, such as the
Pakistan and India, though relations Palestinians, the Irish Republican
5) Two interesting regional wildcards. Army in Northern Ireland, and the
have been much better of late, with
One is the power shifts and potential ETA (Basque nationalist movement)
more business ties and the political
rivalry that happens in Asia as in Northern Spain and Southern
leaders beginning to work more
China becomes a more important France. We then had the post-­Arab
together. There is always a subtext of
economic, regional, military, and mujahideen. We observed the
political power? Does that power rise of the global, violent Islamist
Afghanistan, a post-­2014 Afghanistan
evolve in a way that is inherently in movement spearheaded by al-­Qaeda
actually becomes the playground
for proxy wars between India and on the Sunni side;; and on the Shia
it simply be in competition or with side, their Islamist movement was
Pakistan and others in the region.
some coordination, a happy coalition,

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driven by the Iranians and the trying to control territory and ports, metastasized ideology has embedded
attack systems, etc. Al-­Qaeda in the itself and manifested in a very
proxies of Hezbollah and others in Islamic Maghreb looks like a group different way. Our counterterrorism
of smugglers mixed with rebels and
beginnings of a transnational terrorist hunting down al-­Qaeda leaders or
threat that came to our shores on 9/11 stopping plots. It should be about
emerged—and awoke us to the real The environment is much more
threat. complicated. It’s very hard to draw environment, so these groups don’t
the line between al-­Qaeda/non al-­ gain in strength and have either the
The challenge now is the threat as Qaeda and terrorist/non-­terrorist. This notion or the ability to strike the
we know it. The threat that hit us on is all happening while you have the United States. If they’re going to be
9/11 was an al-­Qaeda-­driven threat. political winds and tectonics shifting a problem, they need to be a local
Al-­Qaeda has always viewed itself very dramatically in the Middle East. problem— and stay that way.
as the vanguard of a Sunni extremist This opens opportunities for those
movement and revolution in many who are ideologically aligned with al-­ JW: That means monitoring a lot…
ways. But over time the al-­Qaeda Qaeda, even if al-­Qaeda isn’t driving
core has largely lost control and
movements that exist. Now in 2012,
there is a landscape that is much
more fractured and metastasized,
with some elements of al-­Qaeda
diffusing to various locations. Al-­
Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in
Yemen still exists like an al-­Qaeda
franchise, driven by those who
once fought in Afghanistan with
bin Laden. But there are other
al-­Qaeda elements emerging, for
are ideologically aligned with the
extreme al-­Qaeda viewpoint and
agenda, but aren’t being directed
by Ayman al-­Zawahiri or anybody
else in Pakistan. The nature of
terrorism and its manifestations
are happening in very different
ways. It’s not just terrorist cells or the agenda and developments in the JZ: That means a lot of monitoring
operatives being trained and sent out Arab world. At the end of the day, work, diplomatic work, and capacity
to hit American cities or European al-­Qaeda becomes a player. We’re building. In a strategy going forward,
cities. Instead, the fractured nature of seeing this in Syria with people who we must understand that the U.S.
this movement is actually embedding are tied to al-­Qaeda or may have can’t be in all places at all times,
or the world’s policeman. In terms
insurgencies. In Yemen, for example, they are actually driving a lot of the of resources, we have limited
al-­Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula violence and a lot of the opposition bandwidth, which means sharing
looks much more like an insurgency – to President Assad in Damascus. To the labor. One of the very important
holding ground, controlling villages. me, this is a much more complicated legacies of the last eleven or so years
The Al-­Shabaab movement, which environment than we’ve ever seen is that we actually built partnerships;;
is aligned with al-­Qaeda in Somalia, before. The shifting landscape we have helped build capacity for
looks very much like a quasi-­ others around the world to deal with
nationalist insurgency movement threat itself, and the fractured and those problems on their own. In
Southeast Asia, we have witnessed

4. 4
countries in the region, enabled by
“The strategic shift of the last decade was really the ability to recognize these
Australia, dramatically taking the
the area. In the Middle East, Saudi systems.”
Arabia and the UAE are very capable
and have resources;; they are helping
an intense focus on collecting that system which is essential for global
Yemen, for example, deal with their
type of information. Its collection reach. Any organization, company,
terrorist problems. In East Africa,
became a priority along with all of network, or country that wants to
the Kenyans, the Ethiopians, and the
the structures within the intelligence have global reach has to access
African Union led by the Ugandans,
community, law enforcement, and the
have all joined forces along with local
regulatory world. systems. If you block their ability
or make it much harder, costlier or
Shabaab terrorist group to diminish Financial intelligence was recognized riskier to enter into these systems,
their capacity. This takes focus and as being extremely valuable, and you’ve severely damaged their ability
attention. In many ways, the U.S. exponentially so after 9/11. Money to have global reach and impact.
becomes an enabler as opposed to a trails don’t lie. They can provide The strategic shift of the last decade
chief protagonist. very clear links between individuals, was really the ability to recognize
groups, and operations. If you’re able these deterrents and then devise
“Following the money”
JW: When did “following the money”
become a cornerstone activity? And
what effect has it had for enabling
the U.S. to mitigate or thwart terrorist
plots and security threats?
JZ:
to answer. “Following the money”
in many ways has always been
a fundamental part of U.S. law
enforcement and the way that
governments have dealt with serious
threats. Eliot Ness took down Al
Capone by going after him on tax
charges. Following the money and
leveraging money as a vulnerability
for enemies or criminals has always
been a part of the landscape. to not only decipher the intelligence
but also follow it, you can be
After 9/11, three things in terms of
destructive. bad actors and rogue actors from the
“following the money” changed
dramatically. One is a recognition that Another idea is that you can actually
end at the day, money and the money
trail becomes a huge vulnerability for
rogue actors and terrorist criminals
have at their command, the ledgers our enemies in a way that we had not
the bad guys keep, the receipts found really tapped pre-­9/11.
This was the grand innovation in the
in the bad guys pockets – all of that
was critical in putting together the intelligence important, but it can be
mosaic of intelligence about al-­Qaeda used tactically and strategically to bar
and related groups that were trying groups and individuals from using the
to do harm to the U.S. There was

5. 5
Security concerns “In many ways, the world has viewed American power through kinetic and military means
JW: What concerns you more from we have engaged. But the nature of power itself is shifting to economic power, social
a security point of view, the Middle network power, power of media and the general dynamics of globalization.”
East or China?
with territorial disputes, the South
JZ: I think they’re different worries. China Sea disputes, and the rare-­
There are broader geopolitical Hamas and Israel was such a priority
challenges at play. You have Iran’s for the U.S. These are all symptoms of a China
quest for nuclear power – not just that is growing bigger, stronger and
to be a nuclear power but to have China is a different issue because I
see it as a longer-­term fundamental
East. That scenario is a real threat question. How we view China is
to countries like Saudi Arabia and important. How China views itself
vis-­à-­vis the United States and vis-­ Counterterrorism and foreign policy
Egypt, the Sunni states, as well
as Turkey, which sees itself as a à-­vis the rest of the world is also JW: In your mind, how should an
historical rival to the Persians. The relevant. Will China be a responsible effective counterterrorism policy
tension between the Ottomans versus power that at the end of the day is coordinate with respect to U.S.
the Persians is emerging again. This just a competitor to the U.S.? Or is foreign policy?
happens on a daily basis not just it inevitable, as some have argued
JZ: Counterterrorism should neither
be viewed as independent nor as the
driver for our foreign policy. It needs
to be embedded in a broader sense
– how does the U.S. engagement
with and in its shaping of the world
environment happen in a way that’s
commensurate with U.S. interests
broadly? It can’t simply be that our
foreign policy is dictated by our
counterterrorism needs, though it’s
a priority. We have other priorities,
such as economic strength that
concerns in terms of both obvious
counterterrorism security issues and
regional security interests. This all
has to interrelate in the context of
a broader foreign policy. A bigger
in terms of diplomacy, but on the historically, that when you have the issue is that in a changing security
ground in places like Iraq where the rise of a new grand power trying and geopolitical landscape, how
Turks and the Iranians are vying for to displace another power, there is will American power be used and
leveraged? Importantly, how will it be
unique in the world because every in Asia is a longer-­term question understood?
about the shifts in global power—
festering, with geopolitical wounds how China decides to play its role In many ways, the world has viewed
that can erupt. In my view, the Middle and how the U.S. decides to play its American power through kinetic
East is fraught with peril, and fraught part. This is fraught with peril too, and military means and ways over
because of the many regional issues the last 10-­11 years just because of
Always of concern is the Israel-­Arab with China expressing its power and
expanding its reach. Its neighbors feel we have engaged. But the nature of
the Middle East that at any moment threatened. This is already apparent power itself is shifting to economic

6. 6
power, social network power, power
of media and the general dynamics of
globalization. These are the elements
that form power in addition to the
classic elements of power. So how
will power be viewed in a global
lens, including American power and
how it is leveraged? Are we willing
to actually use it around the world?
We’re in a period of reassessment
of U.S. power and how much we’re
willing to commit abroad. In the
minds of many, American power
comes with a commitment of military
resources, which we’re not willing to
commit anymore after two long wars.
Juan Zarate was interviewed by Jennifer Warren,
The Dallas Committee on Foreign Relations takes no institutional positions on policy issues. The views ex-­
pressed and facts presented in DCFR publications are the responsibility of the author.
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