Jonathan R. White


     www.cengage.com/cj/white




       Chapter 17:
Security, Terrorism, and the
           Future

                  Rosemary Arway
                  Hodges University
Emerging Issues in
      Anti-Terrorist Security Policy
 Congress requires a Quadrennial
  Homeland Security Review (QHSR)
  similar to that required of the Department
  of Defense.
 The first QHSR was conducted in 2009.
Multi-level Communication and Sharing

 All federal agencies need to develop
  procedures to ensure that their activities
  complement one another.
 Agencies need to develop methods for
  encouraging communications.
 It is necessary to share information.
The Private Industry Problem
 Private industries are becoming involved
  in homeland security, replacing defense
  activities traditionally performed by the
  government.
 The boundaries between government
  and private functions are difficult to
  determine.
 Rothe and Ross believe that private
  companies are circumventing constraints
  on government power.
Homeland Security and Foreign Policy
  Homeland Security will be increasingly
   determined by foreign policy.
  Homeland Security will, according to
   Robert Gates, rely increasingly on
   partner capacity; that is the ability of
   nations to defend themselves. This
   requires a flexible foreign policy with
   sound congressional oversight and a
   clear national emphasis on consistent
   long-term behavior.
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
 Malley and Harling (2010) argue that the U.S.
  must take a more pragmatic approach in the
  Israeli-Palestinian Conflict. This should
  include recognizing differences between
  militant groups, engaging all countries in the
  region, and encouraging Israeli peace efforts
  with other state actors in the region.
 Daniel Byman argues that Mideast peace
  talks must include Hamas.
 Stephen Kinser argues that the U.S. must
  strengthen relations with Turkey and begin to
  include Iran in discussions.
Absorbing an Attack
 Given that the best anti-terrorism efforts
  will fail in the future, the U.S. must take
  measures to assure that the country can
  recover socially, psychologically and
  militarily.
 The U.S. needs to develop the ability to
  absorb a major attack on one of its cities
  or critical aspect of its infrastructure.
 The involvement of nonstate actors (e.g.
  al Qaeda) affect military response to
  attacks.
Other Critical Issues
 Other critical issues include: education
  and training; settling the debate about
  the nature of terrorism; and managing
  both prosecution of terrorists and
  intelligence gathering.
 Education and training must include not
  only broad preparation in critical
  thinking, but also training in the specific
  complexities of terrorism.
Other Critical Issues
 Terrorism is treated as both a criminal
  justice and a military issue, leading to
  confusion in policy and action.
 Bryan Jenkins believes that, going
  beyond a focus on criminal prosecution,
  Joint Terrorism Task Forces can play a
  greater role in intelligence gathering.
Future Tactics
 While the basic tactics of terrorism
  remain relatively constant, terrorist
  groups develop innovative
  implementations. Recent events suggest
  growing importance of the following
  tactics:
  o Swarming and Multiple Attacks were used
    effectively in Mumbai in 2008 and later in an
    attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team in
    Lahore, Pakistan.
Future Tactics
o Blending Criminal and Terrorist Networks,
  especially in financial operations, will continue,
  but the two types of organizations have
  different significant differences in motivation
  for action and concerns for publicity.
o Other tactical trends include use of
  cyberattacks, focus on smaller attacks, and
  (on the other hand) development of the
  capacity to use weapons of mass destruction.
Overcoming Barriers to Sharing
 Agencies, although encouraged to share
  information, may resist doing so for good
  reasons: leaked information may
  endanger operations and personnel.
  o The Nationwide Suspicious Activity
    Reporting System Initiative (NSI) is an
    attempt to deal with this problem.
  o Only agencies with an established National
    Criminal Intelligence Sharing Plan can
    participate in such a system.
Total Criminal Intelligence
 Intelligence Led Policing (ILP) involves
  collection of information on social
  problems, potential sources of crime,
  and offenders in order to deploy police
  forces effectively.
  o Expanding community involvement is also
    essential. Citizens who note unusual
    patterns of behavior (e.g. purchasing
    chemicals in large quantities) can provide
    important early warning to law enforcement.
Probable Strategic Directions

 Proteus USA is an international think
  tank designed to consider future
  strategic problems.
 Democratic accountability requires
  management of the security structure
  being developed and the need for new
  legal protections for privacy.
Domestic and International Terrorism
 Domestic and international terrorism
  each remain important issues.
   o While some analysts believe jihadist
     ideology is ultimately self-defeating,
     international groups still have the capacity
     to launch devastating strikes.
   o Right wing domestic terrorism may be
     fueled by the election of an African
     American president and a weak economy.

White7e ppt ch17

  • 1.
    Jonathan R. White www.cengage.com/cj/white Chapter 17: Security, Terrorism, and the Future Rosemary Arway Hodges University
  • 2.
    Emerging Issues in Anti-Terrorist Security Policy  Congress requires a Quadrennial Homeland Security Review (QHSR) similar to that required of the Department of Defense.  The first QHSR was conducted in 2009.
  • 3.
    Multi-level Communication andSharing  All federal agencies need to develop procedures to ensure that their activities complement one another.  Agencies need to develop methods for encouraging communications.  It is necessary to share information.
  • 4.
    The Private IndustryProblem  Private industries are becoming involved in homeland security, replacing defense activities traditionally performed by the government.  The boundaries between government and private functions are difficult to determine.  Rothe and Ross believe that private companies are circumventing constraints on government power.
  • 5.
    Homeland Security andForeign Policy  Homeland Security will be increasingly determined by foreign policy.  Homeland Security will, according to Robert Gates, rely increasingly on partner capacity; that is the ability of nations to defend themselves. This requires a flexible foreign policy with sound congressional oversight and a clear national emphasis on consistent long-term behavior.
  • 6.
    Israeli-Palestinian Conflict  Malleyand Harling (2010) argue that the U.S. must take a more pragmatic approach in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict. This should include recognizing differences between militant groups, engaging all countries in the region, and encouraging Israeli peace efforts with other state actors in the region.  Daniel Byman argues that Mideast peace talks must include Hamas.  Stephen Kinser argues that the U.S. must strengthen relations with Turkey and begin to include Iran in discussions.
  • 7.
    Absorbing an Attack Given that the best anti-terrorism efforts will fail in the future, the U.S. must take measures to assure that the country can recover socially, psychologically and militarily.  The U.S. needs to develop the ability to absorb a major attack on one of its cities or critical aspect of its infrastructure.  The involvement of nonstate actors (e.g. al Qaeda) affect military response to attacks.
  • 8.
    Other Critical Issues Other critical issues include: education and training; settling the debate about the nature of terrorism; and managing both prosecution of terrorists and intelligence gathering.  Education and training must include not only broad preparation in critical thinking, but also training in the specific complexities of terrorism.
  • 9.
    Other Critical Issues Terrorism is treated as both a criminal justice and a military issue, leading to confusion in policy and action.  Bryan Jenkins believes that, going beyond a focus on criminal prosecution, Joint Terrorism Task Forces can play a greater role in intelligence gathering.
  • 10.
    Future Tactics  Whilethe basic tactics of terrorism remain relatively constant, terrorist groups develop innovative implementations. Recent events suggest growing importance of the following tactics: o Swarming and Multiple Attacks were used effectively in Mumbai in 2008 and later in an attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore, Pakistan.
  • 11.
    Future Tactics o BlendingCriminal and Terrorist Networks, especially in financial operations, will continue, but the two types of organizations have different significant differences in motivation for action and concerns for publicity. o Other tactical trends include use of cyberattacks, focus on smaller attacks, and (on the other hand) development of the capacity to use weapons of mass destruction.
  • 12.
    Overcoming Barriers toSharing  Agencies, although encouraged to share information, may resist doing so for good reasons: leaked information may endanger operations and personnel. o The Nationwide Suspicious Activity Reporting System Initiative (NSI) is an attempt to deal with this problem. o Only agencies with an established National Criminal Intelligence Sharing Plan can participate in such a system.
  • 13.
    Total Criminal Intelligence Intelligence Led Policing (ILP) involves collection of information on social problems, potential sources of crime, and offenders in order to deploy police forces effectively. o Expanding community involvement is also essential. Citizens who note unusual patterns of behavior (e.g. purchasing chemicals in large quantities) can provide important early warning to law enforcement.
  • 14.
    Probable Strategic Directions Proteus USA is an international think tank designed to consider future strategic problems.  Democratic accountability requires management of the security structure being developed and the need for new legal protections for privacy.
  • 15.
    Domestic and InternationalTerrorism  Domestic and international terrorism each remain important issues. o While some analysts believe jihadist ideology is ultimately self-defeating, international groups still have the capacity to launch devastating strikes. o Right wing domestic terrorism may be fueled by the election of an African American president and a weak economy.