The document provides a quarterly report from Conquest Strategies, LLC on their MidCap portfolio for Q4 2015. It summarizes the strategy, investment objective, and performance for the quarter and year. While the portfolio underperformed the benchmarks for the quarter, it outperformed for the year. The report discusses sector allocations and top holdings, noting increases to utilities and healthcare. It provides analysis of selected positions and the outlook.
Q3FY15 Recommendation: Maintain hold on Alembic PharmaIndiaNotes.com
For the quarter, Alembic Pharma reported muted sales growth of 4.6% yoy to Rs 497 cr, below than the street expectations of Rs 561cr on account of (1) discontinuation of low margin products in international markets (2) Failure to gain expected market share in newly launched products (3) Price erosion due to higher competition in existing products (4) Lower growth in domestic portfolio because of high base effect in Q3FY14. However, it still could manage to sustain its healthy EBITDA margins at 21.2% as compared to 19.8% in Q2FY15/21.7% in Q3FY14. The management has reiterated its earlier guidance of 100-125 bps improvement in margins for next 3-4 years to take the margins to 23-24% levels. Alembic Pharma is awaiting its USFDA inspection this year for both its formulations as well as API facilities.
This Project deals with the comparative study of 2 companies listed in S&P 500 for their performance evaluation & ratio analysis for the 3 financial years.
Ranbaxy's 5QFY14 results were below estimates. Revenue was flat YoY at INR24.7b, while EBITDA declined 7% YoY to INR1.5b, with EBITDA margin at 6.1%. Reported loss stood at INR738m
See Private Sector Banks Result Review 3QFY14. Powergrid strong growth visibility and minimal operational risks. We valued stock for a 12 month period at a target price of Rs.118 also We rate a BUY rating on the stock with an 12 months price target price of Rs 80.0 at 4.1x FY15E earnings of IFGL Refractories Ltd stock.
Q3FY15 Recommendation: Maintain hold on Alembic PharmaIndiaNotes.com
For the quarter, Alembic Pharma reported muted sales growth of 4.6% yoy to Rs 497 cr, below than the street expectations of Rs 561cr on account of (1) discontinuation of low margin products in international markets (2) Failure to gain expected market share in newly launched products (3) Price erosion due to higher competition in existing products (4) Lower growth in domestic portfolio because of high base effect in Q3FY14. However, it still could manage to sustain its healthy EBITDA margins at 21.2% as compared to 19.8% in Q2FY15/21.7% in Q3FY14. The management has reiterated its earlier guidance of 100-125 bps improvement in margins for next 3-4 years to take the margins to 23-24% levels. Alembic Pharma is awaiting its USFDA inspection this year for both its formulations as well as API facilities.
This Project deals with the comparative study of 2 companies listed in S&P 500 for their performance evaluation & ratio analysis for the 3 financial years.
Ranbaxy's 5QFY14 results were below estimates. Revenue was flat YoY at INR24.7b, while EBITDA declined 7% YoY to INR1.5b, with EBITDA margin at 6.1%. Reported loss stood at INR738m
See Private Sector Banks Result Review 3QFY14. Powergrid strong growth visibility and minimal operational risks. We valued stock for a 12 month period at a target price of Rs.118 also We rate a BUY rating on the stock with an 12 months price target price of Rs 80.0 at 4.1x FY15E earnings of IFGL Refractories Ltd stock.
1. 4th Quarter 2015 Conquest Strategies, LLC
Pursuing Superior Risk-Adjusted Returns
Contact: Raymond C. Stewart
rcs@conqueststrategies.com
646-450-8712
Conquest Business Cycle Investing (“BCI”) – MidCap Portfolio
Q4 2015 Report
Strategy
Mid-cap equity investing employing fundamental based, bottom-up stock selection of companies in
industries or sectors most likely to benefit from the current stage of the business cycle
Investment Objective
To deliver above average market returns over a business cycle with a level of volatility only slightly
greater than that of the S&P 500 Index
The Conquest Business Cycle Investing (“BCI”) registered a 4.92% advance during the 4th Quarter 2015 vs.
a 7.05% gain for the S&P 500 Composite and a 3.61% rise for the Russell Mid-Cap Index. While we
underperformed our benchmark for the quarter, we delivered 8.73% for the year, outperforming the 2.29%
return for the S&P 500 Composite and the -2.45% return for the Russell Mid-Cap index during the same
period.
Performance Snapshot – Fourth Quarter 2015
PERFORMANCE Q4 2015 2015 3 Year Average Since Inception*
Conquest BCI 4.92% 8.73% 21.80% 231.69%
S&P 500 Composite Index (TR)2 7.05% 2.29% 16.13% 119.21%
Russell Mid-Cap Index 3.61% -2.45% 15.18% 120.16%
Sources: Conquest Strategies, LLC, Standard & Poor’s, Russell Indexes
* July 1, 2010
1
The Conquest BCI Portfolio is a model portfolio only. Performance is in conformity with industry presentation standards. The data reflects
past performance.The principal value of an investment will fluctuate. Past performance may not be indicative of future investment results.
Performance changes over time and currently may be significantly different than stated
2
S&P 500 Composite with dividends reinvested.
3
All return statistics are gross of any fees.
In July 2010, we began trading our theoretical paper portfolio of the BCI MidCap strategy with an assumed
starting investment of $25 million. At the end of December 2015, the original $25 million investment had
appreciated to $91 million, net of any dividends accrued; there were 43 positions in the portfolio, including
cash.
Since inception in July 2010 through the end of December 2015, the BCI MidCap Portfolio has
advanced 232%, compared to a 119% gain for the S&P 500 Composite and 120% for the Russell Mid-
Cap Index during the same interval.
2. 4th Quarter 2015 Conquest Strategies, LLC
Performance during the 4th Quarter 2015
Our Portfolio continues to meet its primary objective to outperform the broader market over the long-term
with a concentrated sector focus.
We invest in under-valued companies in industry groups that have historically outperformed during the current
phase of the business cycle.
Our portfolio is diversified across multiple industry sectors and aims to provide strong risk-adjusted
performance in up and down markets. Value-investing techniques, combined with technical analysis to fine-
tune our entry and exit points are employed to generate alpha.
During the 4th Quarter 2015, we scaled-back our Cash, Technology and Energy positions, and increased our
Utilities weighting, from 3.12% at the end of November 2015 to 6.18% by the end of December 2015.
Our Healthcare allocation rose to 4.04% in December 2015 when we increased our position in Cigna (CI).
We have maintained a fairly low weighting for the Healthcare sector due to its lofty valuations. Shareholders
approved the merger of Anthem (ANTM) and Cigna in December 2015 by an overwhelming margin to
create the nation’s largest health insurance company. At current pricing, the Anthem-Cigna transaction offers
compelling merger arbitrage opportunities if we allow for a successful closing of the deal with the next six
months.
We increased our position in the utility company Public Service Enterprises (PEG) in early December 2015,
just prior to an upward move indicated by technical parameters.
More importantly, as we indicated in our intentions in our Third Quarter 2015 Report, we increased our
hedging position to 4.92% during December 2015 in anticipation of a market pullback.
The Cameron International Corp (CAM) position we put on earlier in the year still looks promising.
Shareholders approved the transaction on December 17, 2015 by a wide margin. CAM shareholders are
slated to get $14.43 cash plus 0.716 shares of Schulmberger (SLB) for each share of CAM owned. The
combination is expected to close sometime during this first quarter 2016.
As of the close of 2015, our position in Verifone System (PAY) has not yet stabilized. We anticipatate
adding to this position, barring a negative turn in fundamentals in the upcoming quarter.
We have witnessed heightened volatility in U.S. markets during the 4th Quarter 2015, based on Federal
Reserve actions to begin raising interests from near zero levels for the past several years, since the Great
Top 10 Holdings (12/31/15) Sector Weightings (12/31/15)
BCI S&P 500
Cash 7.31% Cash 7.31%
Raymond James Financial Inc RJF 4.16% Technology 21.95% 22.95%
Cigna Corp CI 4.04% Industrials 14.35% 10.90%
MSCI Inc MSCI 3.98% Financial Services 13.66% 17.48%
Arrow Electronics Inc ARW 3.89% Consumer Defensive 8.66% 9.51%
ProShares Short Russell2000 RWM 3.77% Consumer Cyclicals 8.07% 11.43%
Affiliated Managers Group Inc AMG 3.53% Energy 6.68% 7.06%
Jack Henry & Associates, Inc JKHY 3.45% Utilities 6.18% 2.86%
Hanesbrands Inc HBI 3.25% Basic Materials 4.17% 2.73%
ARRIS Group Inc ARRS 3.04% Healthcare 4.04% 15.08%
Hedging Activity 4.92%
Sources: Conquest Strategies, LLC; Morningstar
3. 4th Quarter 2015 Conquest Strategies, LLC
Recession, as well as a precipitous fall in oil prices and recent turmoil in Asian markets. While we remain
cautious over the near term, we do see better opportunity over a longer time horizon.
Selected Monthly Statistics
Top 5 Gainers (12/31/15)
Name Ticker Price $ Market Value $ 1 Mo. Return %
The Kroger Co KR 41.83 2,718,950 11.07
Symantec Corp SYMC 21.00 525,000 8.09
ProShares Short Russell 2000 RWM 62.11 3,416,050 7.54
Cigna Corp CI 146.33 3,658,250 7.09
ProShares Short S&P 500 SH 20.87 1,043,500 3.26
Top 5 Losers (12/31/15)
Name Ticker Price $ Market Value $ 1 Mo. Return %
HollyFrontier Corp HFC 39.89 2,393,400 -16.49
Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF XLE 60.32 603,200 -13.18
Oshkosh Corp OSH 39.04 1,952,000 -10.99
Affiliated Managers Group Inc AMG 159.76 3,195,200 -9.86
PACCAR Inc PCAR 47.40 2,370,000 -8.78
BCI Stock Statistics (12/31/15)
Portfolio Relative to S&P 500 Portfolio Relative to S&P 500
Forward P/E Ratio 12.90 0.70 5-Yr Proj EPS Growth% 11.39 1.16
P/B Ratio 2.70 1.08 Dividend Yield % 1.38 0.69
ROA 7.14 0.97 Average Market Cap $mil 10655.07 0.14
ROE 19.10 0.93
Source: Morningstar
4. 4th
Quarter 2015 Conquest Strategies, LLC
Quarterly Returns – (3Q 2010 inception —4Q 2015)
3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
BCI 20.33% 15.49% 13.81% -2.35% -18.54% 14.05% 17.90% -3.33% 6.83% 7.18% 14.77% 0.61% 9.98% 11.58% 2.91% 6.01% -1.87% 7.38% 5.96% 0.63% -2.81% 4.92%
S&P 500 10.72% 10.22% 5.40% 0.39% -14.33% 11.81% 12.58% -2.75% 6.35% -0.38% 10.61% 2.92% 5.25% 10.52% 1.80% 5.24% 1.13% 4.93% 1.84% 0.28% -6.43% 7.05%
Russell Mid-Cap 13.32% 13.08% 7.43% 0.41% -18.90% 12.31% 12.94% -4.41% 5.58% 2.88% 12.95% 2.21% 7.70% 8.39% 3.53% 4.98% -1.66% 5.95% 3.95% -1.54% -8.01% 3.61%
Source: Conquest Strategies, LLC; Standard & Poor’s, Russell Indexes
* July 1, 2010
1
The Conquest BCI Portfolio is a model portfolio only. Performance is in conformity with industry presentation standards. The data reflects past performance. The principal value of an investment will
fluctuate. Past performance may not be indicative of future investment results. Performance changes over time and currently may be significantly different than stated
2
S&P 500 Composite with dividends reinvested.
3
All return statistics are gross of any fees.
5. 4th Quarter 2015 Conquest Strategies, LLC
How We Invest
Investment Philosophy
We believe that there is the potential to generate superior risk-adjusted returns by investing in
undervalued companies in industries or sectors most likely to benefit from the current stage of the
business cycle.
We believe that there is greater opportunity to uncover and profit from pricing inefficiencies among
lesser followed midcap stocks than large cap stocks.
Our Role Within An Investor’s Total Portfolio
To add total return to market-like returns of core equity allocation
To buffer downside risk in broader core equity market allocations
Where We See Opportunity
While traditional buy and hold strategies may be ineffective in the current market, there are ways to take
advantage of where we are in the business cycle.
Phases of the business cycle are believed to be a primary factor affecting stock prices. Being at the “right
place at the right time,” industry and sector-wise — coupled with proper stock selection, based on strong or
improving fundamentals — are critical ingredients for successful investing over a business cycle.
Investment Process
Portfolio Construction
We aim to build a portfolio of at least 20 names (based on the aggregate size of the portfolio), acquiring
positions of up to 5% per holding.
Portfolio construction starts with our determination of where we believe the US economy is currently
situated in terms of the business cycle. Our analysis takes into consideration data-based factors that include
unemployment trends, personal income, industrial production utilization, sales in housing, durable goods and
retail, consumer expectations, interest rates, the yield curve and commodity prices.
We also recognize that the stock market cycle tends to precede the business cycle by an average of six
months, as investors try to anticipate when the market will respond to changes in the economy. We believe
that by monitoring such a leading indicator trends we can better anticipate changes in the business cycle. As
stock market cycle trending tends to change over a period of months we believe there is the potential to use
that in helping separate market noise from what may be an actual change in trend.
Securities Selection
Once the phase of the business cycle has been determined, we focus on the industries likely to benefit during
that phase and apply our bottom up stock picking approach to generate a list of companies that meet our
criteria. Our factor analysis includes return on assets, price earnings multiples, price to book ratios, and price
to cash flow. We tend to prefer companies with low relative price earnings ratios, and low price to revenues
also on a relative basis. With that information in hand and analyzed we then calculate a company’s intrinsic
value. We believe this helps lead us to find good companies at discounted prices.
Trade Execution
For trade execution in putting on a position we use technical analysis to determine entry and exit points we
want to take in a stock. We employ tools such as Bollinger bands, stochastics and relative strength indicators
for each company on our buy list. When our indicators line up properly, we will initiate a position.
Conversely, we will generally scale out of a stock as it appreciates. We will scale back in if it offers
additional opportunities.
6. 4th Quarter 2015 Conquest Strategies, LLC
Occasional Hedging
Technical analysis may also be used to determine when to hedge the portfolio through the use of inverse
ETFs. We will consider putting on a hedge when we anticipate that the market may have exhausted its near-
term upside potential. When we believe market conditions indicate this may no longer be the case, we
remove any hedge positions we may have previously put on.
A process like this is applied to every company that goes into the portfolio. Additionally, companies are
diversified across industry sectors to mitigate risk.
Sell Discipline
Three conditions tend to necessitate the sale of a position:
If the company reaches our price objective.
If there is a change in the fundamentals of the company.
If the technicals indicate a change may be forthcoming.
# # #