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INTRIERI FAMILY
STUDENT MANAGED FUND
First Quarter Report
April 17, 2015
The students participating in the Intrieri Family Student Managed Fund would like to thank the
Fund's Advisory Board for their support and guidance.
Mr. Vince Intrieri, 2011 Alumni Fellow
senior managing director, Icahn Capital Management
Dr. Greg Filbeck, CFA, FRM, PRM, CAIA
department chair, Finance and Economics
Samuel P. Black III Professor of Insurance and Risk Management
Dr. Timothy Krause
assistant professor of Finance
Intrieri Family Student Managed Fund Advisor
Mr. Eric Robbins, MBA, CFA
lecturer in Finance
Mr. Rick Hedderick, MBA, CFP
lecturer in Business
First Quarter ReportIntrieri Family Student Managed Fund
President’s Message 2-4
Incoming President’s Message 5
Financial Reporting 6
Advisor’s Letter 7
Market/Economic Analysis 8
Risk Management 9
Sector Analysis 10-18
End Note 19
Portfolio Holdings 20
In this report:
Quarterly Fund Performance
This report examines the fund’s performance over the First Quarter of 2015, from January 1, 2015 through March 31, 2015.
During the first quarter of the year, the Intrieri Family Student Managed Fund returned 3.44%, significantly outperforming the
S&P 500 Index quarterly return of 0.44% that has been used as the fund’s benchmark in the past. The revised fund’s bench-
mark of 80% S&P 500, 10% EAFE, and 10% Russell 2000 returned 1.65% for the quarter due to the performance of interna-
tional stocks. As noted in the previous report, we were fully invested this quarter in an attempt to eliminate a cash-drag on
performance.
Our top performing sector was Healthcare, with a strong quarterly return of 18.17%. Our holdings in the Healthcare sector
significantly outperformed their benchmark SPDR ETF’s return of 6.32%, indicating solid stock-picking as well as validating
our decision to bring this previously underweighted sector up to overweight status. With the continued aging of the baby-
boomer generation and continued improvements in health-related technology, many of the companies in this sector stand to
benefit in the long-term. We currently have two analysts who manage the holdings in this sector, as it is the largest sector cur-
rently allocated within the S&P 500 Index. Both analysts (Tyler Brose and Kevin Pascale) worked throughout the quarter to
help increase the weight of our current holdings to better track and eventually outperform the sector ETF.
Our worst performing sector was Telecommunications with a return of -4.19%. Currently, we only hold one stock in this sec-
tor, so the lack of diversification that exists in this sector has been harmful to this sector’s performance. Our lead analyst
(Justin Staab) recently elected to replace this holding near the beginning of the quarter with Bell Canada (BCE), with a strong
valuation to support his proposal. However, this stock has yet to realize its valuation potential. Additionally, our decisions to
underweight Utilities and increase our holdings in Energy that was previously underweighted have benefitted Fund perfor-
mance, although stock selection has been the main driver of performance.
First Quarter Report
Intrieri Family Student Managed
Fund president, Aaron Filbeck
Intrieri Fund President’s Message
2
IFSMF 3.44%
Fund Benchmark 1.65%
S&P 500 Index (80%) 0.44%
Russell 2000 Index (10%) 4.32%
MSCI EAFE Index (10%) 4.19%
Benchmarking and Sector Allocation
As noted in the last report, our Investment Policy State-
ment mandates us to allocate portions of our portfolio
to small-capitalization and developed international secu-
rities. Up until this point, we had been benchmarking
our performance solely to the S&P 500, which meant
that almost 100% of our holdings were large-
capitalization companies. Over the course of the past
three months, one of my primary objectives has been
working with our analysts to sell our overvalued large-
cap stocks and replace them with those that better
match our IPS benchmark.
Further, I began meeting with both Ryan Mitcheltree and Amanda Myers to determine appropriate sector allocations for
our portfolio during the quarter. While we continue our focus primarily towards stock selection, I felt it was important to
remain aware of business cycles, economic projections, and the overall market performance in the process. Therefore, we
elected to benchmark our sector allocations towards the index weights as of the end of the last quarter.
Since 80% of our benchmark composition is the S&P 500, we found it appropriate to use 2014 Q4 sector weights as a
basis for “market-neutral.” We used the Fidelity Business Cycle Analysis to determine where our economy currently
stood. We identified both Basic Materials and Utilities as sectors we want to hold underweight, and Technology and In-
dustrials as sectors we want to hold overweight. We were fairly successful in our implementation of this strategy, with the
exception of Basic Materials, which still remains overweight relative to our target benchmark. This is mostly due to the
fact that we only hold three stocks, and the largest one (Monsanto) comprising 4% of our portfolio that remains slightly
undervalued by our investment criteria.
Portfolio Style Diversification
Our Investment Policy Statement currently gives us the option to invest in
both growth and value stocks in order to pursue a blended value-growth
strategy. Over the course of the first quarter, due to our new focus on in-
vestment valuation, we have significantly decreased our positions in growth
stocks and shifted to a more value-oriented strategy. This was done by re-
placing some of the over-valued growth stocks with small and mid-cap
value and blend-stocks. This shift in style is due to our continued emphasis
on stock valuation. It is much more difficult to place a favorable intrinsic value on growth stocks using our valuation met-
rics. As a result, many of the securities that are added to the portfolio are value stocks.
First Quarter ReportIntrieri Fund President’s Message
3
Sector Position
Basic Materials Underweight
Communication Services Neutral
Consumer Discretionary Neutral
Consumer Staples Neutral
Energy Neutral
Financial Services Neutral
Healthcare Neutral
Industrials Overweight
Technology Overweight
Utilities Underweight
Figure 2: Mar-31 2015Figure 1: Dec-31 2014
Moving Forward
This has been a great start to 2015, and the credit for our massive outperformance goes to this current team of analysts, all
of whom have been working diligently to make sure we are actively managing our holdings. My hope is that the next team
that succeeds this one is able to continue to bring forth new ideas and implement even better infrastructure to continue
this streak of outperformance.
Therefore, as the spring semester comes to an end, we must focus and prepare the fund for the summer months, when
Dr. Krause will be left to manage the portfolio. Throughout the semester, we have been attempting to generate as many
“buy” recommendations as possible. This way, once a stock reaches its intrinsic value, Dr. Krause is able to replace the
stock on our behalf.
I am very happy to announce that Kevin Pascale, our Lead Analyst of the Healthcare Sector has been selected as my re-
placement as President & Chief Investment Strategist for the upcoming fall semester. Kevin’s skills and abilities as an ana-
lyst can only be expanded upon in this new role. There is still so much that can be done, and I am very interested to see
where he takes the fund in the coming months. I would also like to welcome the new team of Lead Analysts: Andrew
Dylewski—Basic Materials, Andrew Williams—Consumer Discretionary, David Graham—Energy, Joshua McAleer—
Financials and Real Estate, Kevin Pascale—Healthcare, Zachary Stickle—Technology/Comms, and Chris Galvin—
Utilities.
On a personal note, this past year has been a great experience, and I am very excited to begin utilizing the skills I’ve ac-
quired from working on this team in the investment world. I am very thankful to Dr. Krause, who has taught me so much
in such a short amount of time, and I am excited to watch what the next group of analysts accomplishes in the next year
and beyond.
Regards,
Aaron Filbeck, President & Chief Investment Strategist
First Quarter ReportIntrieri Fund President’s Message
4
Strategic Planning
Since our last report, the Fund’s holdings have been aligned to meet the benchmark allocation of our Invesment Policy
Statement (80% S&P 500, 10% Russell 2000, and 10% MSCI EAFE). In the upcoming quarter, I would like to contin-
ue our initiative to will better diversify the Fund’s holdings within each sector, as well as among various asset classes,
also set forth by our IPS. In order to meet our internal benchmarks, I will begin to focus on allocating our holdings
towards 35% Large Value, 35% Large Growth, 10% Small Value, 10% Large Hybrid, and 10% International Equity
stocks.
Our analysts will continue to utilize and improve upon the quantitative evaluation methodology (QEM) for stock selec-
tion in the upcoming quarter. In the two quarters since our analysts have been following QEM the Fund’s perfor-
mance has increased in relation to its benchmark. Additionally, we look to improve other methods of analysis, includ-
ing that of management and industry cycles, to complement our QEM in an effort to increase the quality of our securi-
ty selection in the future.
Regards,
Kevin Pascale
Incoming President and Chief Investment Strategist
First Quarter ReportIncoming President’s Message
5
FINANCIAL REPORTING & LOOKING FORWARD
FINANCIAL REPORTING
During the first quarter of 2015, we have begun to see the benefits of having new reporting systems implemented. Us-
ing various macros in Excel, I have been able to pull the most current prices of our holdings, and send out weekly re-
ports detailing the fund’s performance. Having these methodologies in place has also allowed us to better actively
manage our portfolio.
In addition, I’ve been able expand on the functionality of the weekly reports, which are sent out to each Lead Analyst.
The weekly reports now show the weight of each stock within each sector, and I’ve also added a new “Sector Weight”
report. This report allows our team to see a weekly snapshot of each sector’s weight in the fund relative to S&P 500
Index and the target sector weight – which is determined by Aaron, Ryan, and Amanda.
In addition to being able to compare our price targets with current prices, I’ve been able to expand the functionality of
our worksheets by integrating the full use of the Yahoo! Finance API. Using Visual Basic, I was able to add functions
into our current workbooks that allow our team to pull current fundamental metrics such as P/E ratios, 52 Week Highs,
Market Capitalizations, PEG Ratios, along with approximately 80 other firm characteristics. I’ve demonstrated this to
the team and shown them how this can be applied to any spreadsheet, in the case of when further analysis is needed.
My hope is that the “real time” data provided by Yahoo! Finance API will used in creative ways that will lead directly
to increased reporting and performance.
I am currently looking for my replacement as Senior Vice President of Financial Reporting for the upcoming Fall 2015
semester. It’s my goal to find someone with a background in Management of Information Systems (MIS) to join the
fund and continue to make improvements to our reporting systems. This semester, I have worked hard to set the
groundwork on our reporting needs, and look forward to watching the systems evolve after I graduate in May.
I am most certainly open to feedback. If you have any suggestions, please feel free to contact me so I may pass recom-
mendations onto my successor!
Sincerely,
Justin R. Staab
Justin Staab,
senior vice president of
Financial Reporting
6
Continued Improvement
Dear Benefactors and Supporters of the Intrieri Family Student Managed Fund,
First of all I would like to thank Aaron, the IFSMF Officers, and the Lead Analysts
for putting this report together in a record time. This is an experienced, talented, and
extremely capable group that will be missed. As in past quarters, the students have
made significant progress in implementing a variety of initiatives that were introduced
to increase the learning aspects of the fund as well as to make it as successful as pos-
sible. As Aaron notes above, I am also happy to report that the fund was able to per-
form at a much better level than the S&P 500 this quarter. The Fund also soundly
beat the performance of the benchmark that the Fund will track moving forward.
The students have been very successful in implementing the initiatives that were set
out in previous quarterly reports, and that success has translated into successive
quarterly performance improvements.
I am especially proud of the fact that the students have now established price targets for every stock in the fund, and
that only three “overvalued” stocks remain in our holdings (by our metrics). Those will be re-evaluated by the end of
the semester, and we will have a small “buy” list that I will be able to use over the summer to replace stocks that hit
their price targets. This semester we had several stocks hit their price targets that were only purchased earlier in the
semester, which is more evidence of a job well done. This semester, three IFSMF Officers participated in the EN-
GAGE Student Investment Conference in March in Detroit, MI, where students from hundreds of schools gather
annually. The team submitted a ten-minute “stock pitch” video, from which twelve finalists were chosen to make their
pitch in person in Detroit, and eventually a winner was chosen. Although we have some work to do to catch the win-
ning team (Michigan State), our students’ presentation was very close in quality to some of the top twelve pitches.
As far as new initiatives, during the summer and fall semester we will be looking for ways to expand interest in the
Fund. We would like to get first– and second-year students involved in some capacity, and we would like to expand
participation of Behrend MBA students. Additionally, we are hoping to continue and expand our relationships with
other disciplines, including but not limited to MIS, Economics, and Accounting Clubs on campus. Finally, I am happy
to welcome incoming IFSMF President Kevin Pascale and the new Lead Analysts. It should be a great semester in the
fall! Please feel free to contact me at any time with questions, comments, and/or suggestions for improvement.
Best Regards,
Dr. Tim Krause,
Faculty Advisor to the Intrieri Student Managed Fund
First Quarter ReportIntrieri Fund Faculty Advisor’s Message
Intrieri Family Student
Managed Fund Advisor,
Dr. Tim Krause
7
MARKET ANALYSIS
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
Although some domestic economies are doing better than
others, the overall global economy is lacking growth. Ac-
cording to the IMF, the global economy could experience
a longer period of slow economic growth. The Eurozone’s
GDP grew by only 0.2%, which missed expectations of
0.4% growth. Germany continues to be the leading econ-
omy in the Eurozone, growing at a rate of 0.8%, beating
expectations of 0.7%. On the other hand, France did not
experience any significant growth, despite expectations of
0.1%. Italy and Portugal were among other countries that
also suffered in economic growth in this first quarter
(Business Insider). Furthermore, the euro (EUR) has sig-
nificantly declined against the dollar (USD). This is due to
the Eurozone’s quantitative easing (QE) program and
Greece’s extreme debt problem. Also, the USD has in-
creased in value due to strong 2014 Q4 economic growth,
and the ending of the Fed’s QE program.
The Chinese economy has also been suffering. First quar-
ter estimates place China’s GDP at 6.9% growth, a 0.4%
decrease from the previous quarter. Additionally, China’s
GDP growth in Q1 is the slowest growth in six years
(Reuters). The Central Bank is taking action in order to
stimulate the economy for the next quarter, and their gov-
ernment has loosened mortgage restrictions in order stim-
ulate China’s housing market. China has also stated they
will cut power prices and iron-ore taxes for businesses in
an attempt to increase liquidity and stimulate the economy
(WSJ).
THE UNITED STATES ECONOMY
In the first quarter of 2015, the U.S. unemployment rate
continued its downward trend, ending at 5.5%, down from
the 5.7% average from 2014’s Q4. Joblessness is now,
according to the Fed, in the safe range of 5.2% to 5.5%
that can realistically be sustained over time. The U6 un-
employment rate decreased with similar improvement end-
ing at 10.9% in March, despite an initial small bump to
11.3% in January 2015, and is its lowest measure since
2008. The healthy job market looks to be easily sustainable
for the next quarter and beyond.
In an exciting announcement following a March Federal
Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Janet Yellen
said that “with economic conditions improving, and with
further improvement expected in the months ahead, we
have again modified our forward guidance.” By dropping
the word “patient” from the guidance on interest rates, the
Fed opened the door to an interest rate increase, potential-
ly as soon as mid-June through late-August. But historical-
ly low inflation rates do not encourage the Fed’s involve-
ment any time soon. The low inflation can be attributed to
the after-effects of Q4’s low oil prices that contributed
lower input costs for businesses and consumers.
Domestic corporate profits generally appear to be increas-
ing at a 5% – 10% growth rate, which will likely be fol-
lowed by corresponding stock market returns. The S&P
500 generally stayed above 2000 points, with slight fluctua-
tions and no major corrections for this quarter in particu-
lar. The projections for Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
for Q1 2015 is a 1.4% decrease from the actual 2.2% end-
ing level from Q4 2014.
The U.S. trade deficit, the amount that U.S. imports ex-
ceeds U.S. exports, fell dramatically from $42.7 billion in
January to $35.4 billion in early April. The shrinking wage
gap resulted from falling exports, with imports falling even
more. The trade deficit fell to 3.2% compared to the same
period last year. Also, the growing U.S. economy is likely
to increase imports and the strong dollar will continue to
push down exports in the coming months. Forecasters
expect to see an increase in the trade deficit next quarter.
The United States economy remained mid-cycle in Q1
with peaking growth and continued neutral policy
measures. Thus the fund should continue under-weighting
Utilities and Materials, which tend to be more sensitive to
interest rates. As 2015 projections for economic growth
are uncertain, capital goods producers should keep an eye
on potentially decreasing GDP, particularly those in Infor-
mation Technology and Industrials sectors.
The harsh snowstorms and below-zero temperatures in
Q1 may have contributed to the dull winter performance.
The coming spring months will show whether the econo-
my will pick up enough speed for the Fed officials to raise
their short-term rate from its record low.
Ryan Mitcheltree,
senior vice president
of Market Analysis
Amanda Myers,
vice president
of Market Analysis
8
RISK MANAGEMENT & SECTOR ANALYSIS
Brooke Landram
senior vice president of Risk Management
Lead Analyst, Consumer Discretionary
RISK MANAGEMENT ANALYSIS
This quarter, the analysts of The Intrieri Family Student
Managed Fund continued an emphasis on diversification
and risk management within the portfolio. As noted in the
last report, Justin Staab, SVP of Financial Reporting, has
recently implemented a new reporting methodology that
allows our analysts to better track sector and fund perfor-
mance. Justin has also been working to implement better
reporting automation, as well as improve various monitor-
ing techniques.
As Aaron noted earlier in this report, we have centralized
our sector-weight benchmarking strategies. Rather than
our analysts recommend sector’s weights each quarter, we
began using the index weights as a basis for market neu-
tral. This allows our analysts to focus on stock valuation.
However, we took these weight objectives into considera-
tion when making buy and sell recommendations.
We also include Sharpe Ratios and Optimal Portfolio cal-
culations in our analysis. We calculated the Sharpe Ratios
of all of our stocks in the fund as well as the fund overall.
We used these metrics in our recommendations to deter-
mine if a stock’s projected performance was justified com-
pared to its implied future volatility. We also used the Op-
timal Portfolio calculations of all the stocks in the fund to
determine if any of the stocks were highly correlated with
other stocks in the fund. This metric has helped the ana-
lysts recommend stocks to sell.
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR
Our holdings in the Consumer Discretionary sector pro-
duced a return of 9.42% for the first quarter, outperform-
ing the Select Sector Consumer Discretionary SPDR
(XLY)’s return of 4.75%. The Fund currently has a weight
of 13.32% in the Consumer Discretionary Sector which is
comparable to the S&P 500’s 12.66% allocation. This
quarter we sold Home Depot Inc. (HD) and bought
Cooper Tire & Rubber Co. (CTB). We also purchased an
additional 77 shares of Honda Motor Co. Ltd ADR based
on a revised valuation.
The top performer in the fund’s sector holdings was
Cooper Tire & Rubber Co. (CTB) with a return of
16.21%. Cooper Tire & Rubber Co last posted its quarter-
ly earnings results on Monday, February 23. The company
reported $0.45 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter,
missing the consensus estimate of $0.64, but that seemed
to be priced into the stock. The company reported reve-
nues of $861.00 million for the quarter, outperforming the
consensus estimate of $806.66 million. The company also
declared their quarterly dividend, which was paid on Fri-
day, March 27. Investors of record on Wednesday, March
4th were given a dividend of $0.105 per share. This repre-
sents a $0.42 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield
of 1.09%. The stock has almost reached its price target,
therefore I will be looking to reevaluate the stock and find
a replacement if necessary.
The bottom performer in the fund’s holdings for this sec-
tor was Ford Motor Co. (F), with a return of -4.95%. Ford
shares were down 2.08% to $16.22 on March 25 after the
automaker announced a recall of 221,000 North American
trucks and SUV’s. The recall affects recent models of the
company’s ambulances, police and emergency vehicles.
Ford could also be in for a prolonged labor fight this sum-
mer because of a comment made by the president of the
United Autoworkers Union, who claimed that the current
two tier payment system was unfair .He is still under pres-
sure by union members to end the second tier wages, ac-
cording to Reuters.
The outlook for the consumer discretionary sector is posi-
tive. Consumer discretionary companies have a richer val-
uation reflecting an anticipation of stronger earnings
growth. Also, consumer spending is expected to rise fur-
ther in parallel with continuing growth momentum in the
U.S. economy. Overseas growth could also push discre-
tionary spending due to the large portion of U.S. sales
coming from international markets. Another factor leading
to strong consumer discretionary spending is low interest
rates. These low interest rates allow companies to offer
stronger dividends and improve cash flows. In the future,
if interest rates stay low, or rise moderately, this sector
should continue to do well.
9
SECTOR ANALYSIS
BASIC MATERIALS
Our holdings in Basic Materials produced a quarterly re-
turn of -1.70%, underperforming the Materials Select Sec-
tor SPDR ETF (XLB)’s return of 0.91%. The portfolio
holdings in Basic Materials comprises of 6.48%, which is a
slight increase from last quarter’s weight of 5%. Addition-
ally, it is still overweight relative to the S&P 500 Index’s
weight of 3.17%. This past quarter, we have attempted to
look for ways to reduce the sector weight to an under-
weight status.
Our best performing stock was Monsanto Co (MON)
with a quarterly return of -0.31%. Recently I conducted a
new valuation on Monsanto, and the stock is still under-
valued with room for a potential appreciation of 8.77%.
However, Monsanto had poor second quarter results with
missed expectations for revenues and earnings. Its corn
seed and trait sales are down $2.91 billion and business
sales declined 14%. As mentioned in the Q4 report, I was
concerned about the impact the strong dollar and fluctuat-
ing Euro could have on MON and my concerns were war-
ranted. These recent currency headwinds have had a sig-
nificant impact on its financial performance, and are esti-
mated to reduce EPS by $0.35 to $0.40. Despite this, they
are still predicted to make record annual earnings. I be-
lieve this will continue to be a significant risk in the near
future along with Monsanto’s move toward branded
seeds. However, the consensus price target, as reported by
Analyst Ratings Network, is $124.72, with a rating of
HOLD. This coming quarter, I believe that we should sell
half of our holdings in MON to decrease our sector
weighting. Monsanto currently has the least potential ap-
preciation of the Basic Materials sector holdings and com-
prises 3.58% of the overall fund.
The bottom performing stock in the sector was Freeport-
McMoRan Inc (FCX) with a -2.22% loss since our pur-
chase on February 12, 2015. We have a price target of
$35.80 listed for FCX, which means its current potential
appreciation is 88.92%. In line with this, the consensus
price target, as reported by Analyst Ratings Network, is
$31.06 an upside of 65.38% with a hold recommendation.
On March 31 J.P. Morgan Chase’s commodities teams
lowered 2015 and 2016 forecasts for most base metals
which had a significant negative impact of FCX. JPM’s
equity analyst Michael Gambardella is quoted saying “We
believe that a strong dollar and weak oil prices will contin-
ue to weigh on demand (and prices) for most metals at a
time when Chinese growth (and metals consumption) is
slowing and Russian exports are increasing.” We feel that
the biggest risks FCX faces moving forward are the slow-
ing short term demand for metals, and low oil prices. With
FCX being the world’s largest producer of copper, with
significant holdings in oil and gas resources, I believe that
its poor performance is more of a reflection of a tempo-
rary bad economic environment rather than a bad stock or
company.
According to Fidelity Research, the U.S. economy remains
in the mid-cycle expansion phase of the business cycle.
Historically, the Basic Materials sector typically underper-
forms in this phase of the business cycle, which is in line
with our initiative to decrease its weight in the fund. The
sector is estimated by FactSet to have a second-quarter
profit growth of 2%, down from initial expectations due
to a stronger dollar hurting U.S. multinationals within the
sector and low oil prices.
Andrew Dylewski
Lead Analyst, Basic Materials
10
SECTOR ANALYSIS
CONSUMER DEFENSIVE
In the first quarter of 2015, the fund’s Consumer Staples
holdings yielded a return of 15.12%, significantly outper-
forming the SPDR Consumer Staples (XLP) ETF return
of 1.14%.
The top performing stock in the sector was Kroger (KR)
with a return of 23.0%.The second leading stock was Con-
stellation Brands (STZ) with a return of 17.0%. The fund
sold both these stocks during the period based on our
price target valuations.
Kimberly-Clark Corp was the next best performing stock
with a return of 1.50%. Fourth quarter net sales were
down 1% YoY, and a restructuring program was started in
October 2014, and their fiscal year ends December 31st.
The program is intended to improve efficiency and offset
overhead cost, and the company announced the construc-
tion of a new distribution hub in South Dallas. The devel-
opment will cost $22 million and should be completed by
December 31, 2016, in order to receive tax abatement val-
ued at $1.6 million. My outlook is a continuation of de-
creasing net sales in 2015 stemming from spin off of
healthcare. However I am intrigued by the cost savings the
future will hold.
Our bottom performing stock was Procter & Gamble Co.
with a return of -0.36%. P&G’s net income dropped to
$2.37 billion from $3.43 billion last year. This is mostly
due to the continuation of a strong U.S dollar vs. other
currencies, the biggest being Russia. Russia is one of P&G
fastest developing subsidiaries. P&G holds ¾ of the mar-
ket share in detergents, shampoos and diapers.
P&G is moving towards aggressive cost cutting methods,
but in a balanced way. In order to do so P&G will elimi-
nate more than 4,000 jobs and cut $1 billion from their
marketing budget. If done correctly this cost cutting pro-
gram will improve P&G’s margins. In addition, P&G
plans to build a $500 million dollar manufacturing plant in
West Virginia, their second new site since 1971. The plant
is expected to be in operation by 2017 and will supply
80% of the east coast with their products within one day.
During the past quarter, we sold Constellation Brands and
Kroger Co, as they no longer fit our investment criteria for
the portfolio. Therefore, we ended with quarter with
3.49% of our portfolio allocated towards Consumer Sta-
ples, underweight of the S&P 500 Index’s weight of
12.66%. In regard to our current holdings, Kimberly-Clark
Corp and Proctor & Gamble are undervalued. Therefore,
my top priority will be to continue to find stocks that fit
our investment criteria.
Paul Toma
Lead Analyst, Consumer Staples
11
SECTOR ANALYSIS
ENERGY
During the first quarter of the year, the portfolio’s hold-
ings in the Energy sector yielded a return of -0.24%, out-
performing the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) of
-1.34%. As of quarter-end, 9.39% of our portfolio is com-
prised of Energy stocks, which is slightly overweight rela-
tive to the S&P 500 Index’s weighting of 8.07%. Oil prices
continued to experience volatility over the past quarter,
negatively affecting returns. We sold National Fuel Gas in
February due to the stock reaching our projected price
target, but continued to hold the rest and increase our
holdings to market weight as we believe they will eventual-
ly appreciate to their target prices when oil rebounds.
The top performer in the energy sector was Halliburton
Co (HAL), which yielded a 13.84% return. Halliburton is
continuing to cut costs in order to complete their merger
deal with Baker Hughes, which has been on track since
last year’s fourth quarter. They have recently opted to sell
the following businesses: Fixed Cutter/Roller Cone Drill
Bits, Directional Drilling, and Logging/Measurement-
While-Drilling. According to Yahoo! Finance, by selling
these businesses, they are freeing up $10B in assets and
will become the world’s second largest provider of oilfield
services. According to Seeking Alpha, this deal is expected
to close sometime during the second half of the year. This
sale of assets will help the company fuel future growth,
while both Baker and Halliburton continue to adjust to
lower oil prices. I believe this merger will benefit Hallibur-
ton in regards to growth and expansion, and its stock price
is still a good long term investment.
Our bottom performer was Exxon Mobil Corporation
(XOM), which yielded a -4.48% return. According to the
Street, Exxon currently has a very low debt-to-equity of
0.17, well under the industry average. This means that they
have been fairly successful and managing their debt levels.
Although they managed their debt very well, their reve-
nues declined 22.6% over the quarter, resulting in a gross
profit margin of 17.91%. While they do have some current
weaknesses in profit margins and revenues, I believe they
have a solid financial position, with great debt levels that
will allow them to rebound in the long term. They remain
the largest energy company in the sector, with a market
value of $360 billion. At the end of Q1, Shell and Chevron
are making huge acquisitions in the industry. Exxon is ex-
pected to make one of their own going forward, which
may grow their value in the coming months.
I believe stocks in this sector are still very appealing this
year, as energy companies still have a great chance to re-
bound in the long run if they continue to cut costs and
acquire other business. Our holdings in this sector have
decreased in value since late last year, but this has been
more in line with the rapid decline in oil prices rather than
individual company performance. In fact, as the market
continues to be weighed down from oil prices, many of
our energy companies are becoming more efficient and
cutting costs to offset losses.
As of quarter-end, all of the stocks within this sector re-
main undervalued by my valuation metrics, with all four of
them being above 30% potential appreciation. We are at a
great position within this sector and moving into Q2, it
will be a major priority to pay attention to how these com-
panies perform under this new environment.
Conor Chadwick
Lead Analyst, Energy
12
SECTOR ANALYSIS
FINANCIAL SERVICES
The Financial Services sector holdings in the portfolio
largely maintained their value over the first quarter with a
return of -1.09%, slightly outperforming the Financial Se-
lect Sector SPDR ETF’s return of -2.15%. We saw signifi-
cant asset turnover, as investments we’d made in previous
quarters appreciated to their intrinsic values. In fact, only
one stock that we held at the beginning of the quarter is
still in our portfolio at the end of the quarter. Our priority
at the end of last quarter was to realize our gains on stocks
that had reached their target prices and shift into equities
that still had room to grow, and I am happy to say that we
achieved that goal. Every stock in this sector we now hold
is now significantly undervalued according to our metrics.
The top performer in the Financial Services sector was
Willis Group Holdings (WSH) with a holding period re-
turn of 9.89% for the quarter. Willis’s stock value appreci-
ated quickly following reports that they were going to beat
fourth quarter earnings estimates leading up to their earn-
ings call. This appreciation slowed when their financial
reports came out, beating the previous estimates by one
cent, but still continued on strong organic growth and an
increase in dividends. This momentum carried their over-
all price far beyond our target price of $40.60, and after
performing an updated valuation we decided to realize our
gains and shift them into a more undervalued stock.
Our bottom performing stock in the first quarter was the
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) with a holding period return
of -5.98%. BNS’s price had been falling for several
months due to the uniquely negative financial situation
that the bank found itself in over the course of 2014.
Many of the bank’s international investments were dis-
rupted by various disturbances abroad, and the continuing
low interest rate environment severely constrained their
loan income. The bank has been restructuring, writing off
its troubled foreign assets and reconfiguring itself to better
utilize its strengths. We purchased the stock immediately
following a disappointing fourth quarter earnings call, ex-
pecting the market to react quickly to the news and pro-
vide us our best starting point. Unfortunately, its price
continued to fall for a full week, resulting in our first quar-
ter loss. That said, BNS is a very strong company with
solid fundamentals, and has already shown signs of growth
towards its target price. The stock has shown largely unin-
terrupted growth since the end of the quarter, and the ad-
dition of a dividend at the beginning of April further
boosted its overall value. Given a longer time horizon, I
am fully confident that the Bank of Nova Scotia will prove
to be a great investment.
Our portfolio weight in Financial Services has been steadi-
ly increasing, towards a market weight, moving from
8.88% of the fund at the end of last quarter to 12.00% at
the end of this quarter. This is still below the S&P 500
weighting of 16.28%, but we are gradually moving to in-
crease our weighting with solid investments towards our
benchmark. We are seeking to further diversify our hold-
ings throughout the Financial Services sector, with hold-
ings in large banks, loan service companies, and insurance
companies. We are also currently seeking to broaden into
the trading exchange sector, allowing us to capture the full
breadth of value that Financial Services has to offer.
I am bullish on this sector. The Financial Services Sector
typically performs well with rising interest rates, and many
central banks have signaled that they will allow rates to rise
in the near future. Global volatility has largely depressed
financial gains this quarter, but the world is moving to-
wards a more stable equilibrium, and that will provide a
fantastic environment for the sector to grow. We were
outperform the market in this sector by choosing to invest
in equities with strong fundamentals, and we are now
poised to capture significant gains as the sector recovers in
coming months.
Joshua McAleer
Lead Analyst, Financial Services
13
SECTOR ANALYSIS
HEALTH CARE
The portfolio’s holdings in the Health Care sector pro-
duced a quarterly return of 18.17% during the first quarter
of 2015, making it the top performing sector. The hold-
ings also outperformed the Health Care Select Sector
SPDR ETF (XLV)’s return of 6.32%.
The top performer in the Health Care sector was Cigna
Corp. (CI) with a 25% return. This stock represents 22%
of the sector and 3% of the fund. Cigna’s performance is
largely due to the large inflow of customers that are in-
sured under the Affordable Care Act. Also, insurance
companies are finding different ways to charge premiums,
which help improve profits. Cigna also acquired QualCare
Alliance Networks, Inc. on January 26, which will combine
Cigna’s offered health products with QualCare’s expertise
in hospital systems. They hope the acquisition will help
drive innovation, affordability and value. According to our
investment criteria, Cigna still remains undervalued despite
this good news.
The second best performing stock in Health Care was Bio-
gen Inc. (BIIB) with a 24% return during the quarter.
Their performance is largely due to an announcement in
March that they saw positive results for a new drug in their
pipeline that will help combat Alzheimer’s disease. The
drug is in testing for now, but remains a great opportunity
if it proves to be successful.
The bottom performer in the sector was Baxter Interna-
tional Inc. (BAX) with a -1.18% return during the quarter.
Baxter was a new addition to our portfolio on March 3, so
we hadn’t held it for more than a month before quarter-
end. However, it does represent 18% of the sector. Re-
cently, on March 27, Baxter announced their plans to split
into two companies, which will separatee their biopharma-
ceuticals business from its medical equipment business.
After the news, the stock soared and has been on the rise
since.
We believe that with the growing age of the population,
markets will increase their spending on health care, making
this an opportune sector. The direction of the aging popu-
lation is considered a long term trend that makes this sec-
tor unique because its positive performance could remain
constant into the future regardless of economic cycles.
One of our areas of focus in the coming quarter is Health
Care IT companies that offer the ability for consumers to
compare service providers to find the lowest cost and
highest quality service, right from their mobile device. This
is a relatively young industry, which means there are an
abundance of positive investment opportunities. The risks
this sector faces are primarily political risks, such as U.S
Health Care reform, and possible public scrutiny of in-
creasing prescription costs, which could result in short-
term price volatility.
Last quarter we sought to significantly increase the weight
of the Health Care sector since it had been significantly
underweighted in 2013. We found several buy recommen-
dations during the quarter including purchases such as,
Aetna (AET), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Baxter (BAX),
and the purchase of additional shares of Cigna (CI). We
are currently overweight in Health Care, representing
15.84% of the fund relative to the S&P 500 weighting of
14.79%. Our goal was to have this sector at market-
neutral, but the amount of growth in our holdings has
slightly increased our weight. The Health Care sector has
an opportunity to continue to perform well in the future.
Historically, it has outperformed the market in the late
stage of the business cycle. As of quarter-end, all of our
holdings in this sector remain undervalued according to
our investment criteria. Halyard Health Inc. (HYH) and
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) are nearing their price targets, however,
so their prices will be monitored closely during the up-
coming quarter.
Tyler Brose
Senior Lead Analyst,
Health Care
14
Kevin Pascale
Lead Analyst, Health
Care
SECTOR ANALYSIS
INDUSTRIALS
The portfolio’s holdings in the Industrials sector produced
a quarterly return of 1.92%, outperforming the Industrial
Select Sector SPDR (XLI)’s return of -0.98%. The fund
currently holds 14.14% of the portfolio in the Industrial
Sector, which is overweight relative to the S&P 500 In-
dex’s weighting of 10.28% and remains in line with our
allocation objective.
The top performer in this sector was FedEx Corporation
(FDX), with a return of 15.08%. Recently, FedEx beat
consensus earnings per share estimates of $1.88, reporting
earnings per share of $2.01. This was attributed to lower
fuel costs and an increase in prices, both of which drove
operating margins upward. FedEx third quarter revenues
were $11.7 billion, growing 4% year-over-year. In addition
to low fuel costs, FedEx’s revenues have seen strong
growth in all three of their primary segments: express,
ground, and freight. Finally, FedEx recently acquired TNT
Express after attempting an acquisition two years ago. Be-
cause TNT Express is located in Europe, FedEx was able
to take advantage of the lower euro, which contributed to
its performance this past quarter.
The bottom performer in the fund was General Electric
(GE), with a return of negative -8.95%. Recently General
Electric announced plans to sell their finance and real es-
tate business units. This is so they can begin refocusing the
company on its core manufacturing business, which serves
the aviation, energy, and healthcare markets. In this busi-
ness decision, they plan on selling $26.5 billion worth of
real estate assets. GE also plans on bringing back $36 bil-
lion in cash that currently resides overseas. After the an-
nouncement, GE’s stock price soared, which will more
than likely be reflected in the next quarterly returns. The
company’s revenue was $42 billion for the quarter which
was slightly less than the consensus estimate of $42.2 bil-
lion.
Recently, the Industrials sector’s performance has been
slightly negative due to a decline in durable goods purchas-
es. This has also negatively affected the manufacturing
sector throughout the United States. This past quarter, we
have aspired to slightly decrease our holdings, yet still
maintain an overweight position in the sector, as it typical-
ly outperforms during this phase of the business cycle.
Abby Luke
Lead Analyst, Industrials
15
SECTOR ANALYSIS
Justin Staab
Lead Analyst, Information Technology
Lead Analyst, Telecommunications
INFORMATION TECHOLOGY
The portfolio’s holdings in the Information Technology
produced a 1.90% quarterly return, outperforming the
Information Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK)’s return of
1.05%. By the end of the first quarter, our portfolio held a
22.5% sector weight, considerably overweight the S&P
500 Index weight of 19.59%.
The top performing stock in our holdings was Apple Inc.
(APPL), with a return of 13.15%. Apple is an American
multinational company, and is the largest publicly traded
corporation in the world by market capitalization. Apple
sells computer electronics, computer software, online ser-
vices, and personal computers. On January 27, Apple
posted its fiscal 2015 first quarter earnings, announcing a
record $18 billion profit. Greater sales in China, the intro-
duction of new Macintosh hardware, and higher than ex-
pected iPad sales contributed to Apple’s performance this
quarter. After the earnings announcement, I performed a
new valuation of the company, and still find it to be signif-
icantly undervalued with a price target of $143.00.
The bottom performing stock in this sector was Microsoft
Corp (MSFT), with a return of -11.70%. Microsoft is the
largest software company in the world, and offers an array
of products including software, consumer electronics, and
services. The poor performance of Microsoft can be at-
tributed to an estimated 5.2% drop in Windows PC sales.
According to IDC’s count, Windows PC makers shipped
the lowest quarterly number in six years. Microsoft is cur-
rently developing their new operating system, Windows
10, which is expected to better integrate with their tablets
and desktops than prior versions.
The Information Technology sector has historically out-
performed in a rising interest rate environment. Many be-
lieve that his can be contributed to that information tech-
nology companies don’t maintain a high level of debt on
their balance sheets, leaving them relatively unaffected.
When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, I believe
the outlook for the Information Technology sector re-
mains positive.
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
Our holding in the Telecommunications produced a quar-
terly return of -4.19 underperforming the Telecommunica-
tion Services Sector SPDR ETF (XLT)’s return of 1.62%.
By the end of the first quarter, the fund held a 2.11% sec-
tor weight in Telecommunications, which is market-
neutral relative to the S&P 500 Index’s weight of 2.32%.
With merger concerns between Time Warner and Com-
cast, supported by the fact that the stock no longer fit our
investment criteria, we elected to sell our holdings in
Comcast on February 19, and replace the funds with BCE
Inc. (BCE) - commonly referred to as Bell Canada. BCE is
a Canadian telecommunications and media company,
which offers services in voice, wireless, television, and in-
ternet access. Since our purchase, Bell has depreciated by
4.53%. Bell’s poor performance could be attributed to its
president attempting to manipulate news coverage in Can-
ada. However, BCE’s president recently stepped down at
the end of the first quarter.
The Telecommunications sector’s outlook is promising for
the remainder of the year. A Global Mobile Consumer
survey showed that consumers have shown a 19% increase
in internet streaming services in the past year. Additional-
ly, in the United States, 4G wireless networks could ac-
count for more than $150 billion in GDP growth over the
next few years. With the continued rise of the Internet,
new products are attempting to connect with broadband
connections, which will lead to increased demand for
companies within the telecommunications sector.
16
SECTOR ANALYSIS
UTILITIES
The Student Managed Fund’s Utilities Sector for the first
quarter yielded a 1.72% return, which is lower return rela-
tive to last quarter. However, the Fund’s Utilities sector
significantly outperformed the Utilities sector ETF (XLU),
which yielded a -5.16% return for Q1. Due to changes in
the market, specifically interest rates, the Fund has elected
to maintain an underweight position in Utilities, due to the
tendency for Utilities stocks to underperform in rising in-
terest rate environments. Although interest rates are un-
likely to have an intense lift-off, a gradual increase in inter-
est rates is reason enough to underweight the Utilities sec-
tor.
Duke Energy (DUK) was the Fund’s top performer last
quarter and was sold when it reached its price target dur-
ing the first quarter. The realized quarterly return for
DUK was 4.87%. DUK’s stock was on a steady decline
for several weeks, so I performed a revaluation of DUK,
and found that it no longer fit into our internal investment
criteria. We are still watching DUK for another potential
entry point to have it added back into the Fund.
Aside from selling DUK, the AES Corporation (AES) and
Exelon Corporation (EXC) saw poor performance during
the period as well, suffering a 7% loss during the quarter.
However, both valuations still show signs of potential ap-
preciation. The Fund will continue to hold these stocks
because of the potential appreciation, but we will remain
cognizant of both AES and EXC.
Both of our current positions have significant potential
appreciations. As students arrive for the fall semester, the
Utilities analyst should examine how the sector is perform-
ing and, at that point, re-evaluate and make changes to the
holdings accordingly.
Ryan Mitcheltree
Lead Analyst, Utilities
17
If you would like to contribute to the growth of
the Intrieri Family Student Managed Fund,
please contact the
Black School of Business at:
Phone: 814-898-6173
Intrieri Family
Student Managed Fund
END NOTE
18
PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS
19
Intrieri Family Student Managed Fund
Portfolio Holdings as of March 31, 2015

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IFSMF Q1 Report 2015

  • 1. Business Tagline or Motto INTRIERI FAMILY STUDENT MANAGED FUND First Quarter Report April 17, 2015
  • 2. The students participating in the Intrieri Family Student Managed Fund would like to thank the Fund's Advisory Board for their support and guidance. Mr. Vince Intrieri, 2011 Alumni Fellow senior managing director, Icahn Capital Management Dr. Greg Filbeck, CFA, FRM, PRM, CAIA department chair, Finance and Economics Samuel P. Black III Professor of Insurance and Risk Management Dr. Timothy Krause assistant professor of Finance Intrieri Family Student Managed Fund Advisor Mr. Eric Robbins, MBA, CFA lecturer in Finance Mr. Rick Hedderick, MBA, CFP lecturer in Business First Quarter ReportIntrieri Family Student Managed Fund President’s Message 2-4 Incoming President’s Message 5 Financial Reporting 6 Advisor’s Letter 7 Market/Economic Analysis 8 Risk Management 9 Sector Analysis 10-18 End Note 19 Portfolio Holdings 20 In this report:
  • 3. Quarterly Fund Performance This report examines the fund’s performance over the First Quarter of 2015, from January 1, 2015 through March 31, 2015. During the first quarter of the year, the Intrieri Family Student Managed Fund returned 3.44%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 Index quarterly return of 0.44% that has been used as the fund’s benchmark in the past. The revised fund’s bench- mark of 80% S&P 500, 10% EAFE, and 10% Russell 2000 returned 1.65% for the quarter due to the performance of interna- tional stocks. As noted in the previous report, we were fully invested this quarter in an attempt to eliminate a cash-drag on performance. Our top performing sector was Healthcare, with a strong quarterly return of 18.17%. Our holdings in the Healthcare sector significantly outperformed their benchmark SPDR ETF’s return of 6.32%, indicating solid stock-picking as well as validating our decision to bring this previously underweighted sector up to overweight status. With the continued aging of the baby- boomer generation and continued improvements in health-related technology, many of the companies in this sector stand to benefit in the long-term. We currently have two analysts who manage the holdings in this sector, as it is the largest sector cur- rently allocated within the S&P 500 Index. Both analysts (Tyler Brose and Kevin Pascale) worked throughout the quarter to help increase the weight of our current holdings to better track and eventually outperform the sector ETF. Our worst performing sector was Telecommunications with a return of -4.19%. Currently, we only hold one stock in this sec- tor, so the lack of diversification that exists in this sector has been harmful to this sector’s performance. Our lead analyst (Justin Staab) recently elected to replace this holding near the beginning of the quarter with Bell Canada (BCE), with a strong valuation to support his proposal. However, this stock has yet to realize its valuation potential. Additionally, our decisions to underweight Utilities and increase our holdings in Energy that was previously underweighted have benefitted Fund perfor- mance, although stock selection has been the main driver of performance. First Quarter Report Intrieri Family Student Managed Fund president, Aaron Filbeck Intrieri Fund President’s Message 2 IFSMF 3.44% Fund Benchmark 1.65% S&P 500 Index (80%) 0.44% Russell 2000 Index (10%) 4.32% MSCI EAFE Index (10%) 4.19%
  • 4. Benchmarking and Sector Allocation As noted in the last report, our Investment Policy State- ment mandates us to allocate portions of our portfolio to small-capitalization and developed international secu- rities. Up until this point, we had been benchmarking our performance solely to the S&P 500, which meant that almost 100% of our holdings were large- capitalization companies. Over the course of the past three months, one of my primary objectives has been working with our analysts to sell our overvalued large- cap stocks and replace them with those that better match our IPS benchmark. Further, I began meeting with both Ryan Mitcheltree and Amanda Myers to determine appropriate sector allocations for our portfolio during the quarter. While we continue our focus primarily towards stock selection, I felt it was important to remain aware of business cycles, economic projections, and the overall market performance in the process. Therefore, we elected to benchmark our sector allocations towards the index weights as of the end of the last quarter. Since 80% of our benchmark composition is the S&P 500, we found it appropriate to use 2014 Q4 sector weights as a basis for “market-neutral.” We used the Fidelity Business Cycle Analysis to determine where our economy currently stood. We identified both Basic Materials and Utilities as sectors we want to hold underweight, and Technology and In- dustrials as sectors we want to hold overweight. We were fairly successful in our implementation of this strategy, with the exception of Basic Materials, which still remains overweight relative to our target benchmark. This is mostly due to the fact that we only hold three stocks, and the largest one (Monsanto) comprising 4% of our portfolio that remains slightly undervalued by our investment criteria. Portfolio Style Diversification Our Investment Policy Statement currently gives us the option to invest in both growth and value stocks in order to pursue a blended value-growth strategy. Over the course of the first quarter, due to our new focus on in- vestment valuation, we have significantly decreased our positions in growth stocks and shifted to a more value-oriented strategy. This was done by re- placing some of the over-valued growth stocks with small and mid-cap value and blend-stocks. This shift in style is due to our continued emphasis on stock valuation. It is much more difficult to place a favorable intrinsic value on growth stocks using our valuation met- rics. As a result, many of the securities that are added to the portfolio are value stocks. First Quarter ReportIntrieri Fund President’s Message 3 Sector Position Basic Materials Underweight Communication Services Neutral Consumer Discretionary Neutral Consumer Staples Neutral Energy Neutral Financial Services Neutral Healthcare Neutral Industrials Overweight Technology Overweight Utilities Underweight Figure 2: Mar-31 2015Figure 1: Dec-31 2014
  • 5. Moving Forward This has been a great start to 2015, and the credit for our massive outperformance goes to this current team of analysts, all of whom have been working diligently to make sure we are actively managing our holdings. My hope is that the next team that succeeds this one is able to continue to bring forth new ideas and implement even better infrastructure to continue this streak of outperformance. Therefore, as the spring semester comes to an end, we must focus and prepare the fund for the summer months, when Dr. Krause will be left to manage the portfolio. Throughout the semester, we have been attempting to generate as many “buy” recommendations as possible. This way, once a stock reaches its intrinsic value, Dr. Krause is able to replace the stock on our behalf. I am very happy to announce that Kevin Pascale, our Lead Analyst of the Healthcare Sector has been selected as my re- placement as President & Chief Investment Strategist for the upcoming fall semester. Kevin’s skills and abilities as an ana- lyst can only be expanded upon in this new role. There is still so much that can be done, and I am very interested to see where he takes the fund in the coming months. I would also like to welcome the new team of Lead Analysts: Andrew Dylewski—Basic Materials, Andrew Williams—Consumer Discretionary, David Graham—Energy, Joshua McAleer— Financials and Real Estate, Kevin Pascale—Healthcare, Zachary Stickle—Technology/Comms, and Chris Galvin— Utilities. On a personal note, this past year has been a great experience, and I am very excited to begin utilizing the skills I’ve ac- quired from working on this team in the investment world. I am very thankful to Dr. Krause, who has taught me so much in such a short amount of time, and I am excited to watch what the next group of analysts accomplishes in the next year and beyond. Regards, Aaron Filbeck, President & Chief Investment Strategist First Quarter ReportIntrieri Fund President’s Message 4
  • 6. Strategic Planning Since our last report, the Fund’s holdings have been aligned to meet the benchmark allocation of our Invesment Policy Statement (80% S&P 500, 10% Russell 2000, and 10% MSCI EAFE). In the upcoming quarter, I would like to contin- ue our initiative to will better diversify the Fund’s holdings within each sector, as well as among various asset classes, also set forth by our IPS. In order to meet our internal benchmarks, I will begin to focus on allocating our holdings towards 35% Large Value, 35% Large Growth, 10% Small Value, 10% Large Hybrid, and 10% International Equity stocks. Our analysts will continue to utilize and improve upon the quantitative evaluation methodology (QEM) for stock selec- tion in the upcoming quarter. In the two quarters since our analysts have been following QEM the Fund’s perfor- mance has increased in relation to its benchmark. Additionally, we look to improve other methods of analysis, includ- ing that of management and industry cycles, to complement our QEM in an effort to increase the quality of our securi- ty selection in the future. Regards, Kevin Pascale Incoming President and Chief Investment Strategist First Quarter ReportIncoming President’s Message 5
  • 7. FINANCIAL REPORTING & LOOKING FORWARD FINANCIAL REPORTING During the first quarter of 2015, we have begun to see the benefits of having new reporting systems implemented. Us- ing various macros in Excel, I have been able to pull the most current prices of our holdings, and send out weekly re- ports detailing the fund’s performance. Having these methodologies in place has also allowed us to better actively manage our portfolio. In addition, I’ve been able expand on the functionality of the weekly reports, which are sent out to each Lead Analyst. The weekly reports now show the weight of each stock within each sector, and I’ve also added a new “Sector Weight” report. This report allows our team to see a weekly snapshot of each sector’s weight in the fund relative to S&P 500 Index and the target sector weight – which is determined by Aaron, Ryan, and Amanda. In addition to being able to compare our price targets with current prices, I’ve been able to expand the functionality of our worksheets by integrating the full use of the Yahoo! Finance API. Using Visual Basic, I was able to add functions into our current workbooks that allow our team to pull current fundamental metrics such as P/E ratios, 52 Week Highs, Market Capitalizations, PEG Ratios, along with approximately 80 other firm characteristics. I’ve demonstrated this to the team and shown them how this can be applied to any spreadsheet, in the case of when further analysis is needed. My hope is that the “real time” data provided by Yahoo! Finance API will used in creative ways that will lead directly to increased reporting and performance. I am currently looking for my replacement as Senior Vice President of Financial Reporting for the upcoming Fall 2015 semester. It’s my goal to find someone with a background in Management of Information Systems (MIS) to join the fund and continue to make improvements to our reporting systems. This semester, I have worked hard to set the groundwork on our reporting needs, and look forward to watching the systems evolve after I graduate in May. I am most certainly open to feedback. If you have any suggestions, please feel free to contact me so I may pass recom- mendations onto my successor! Sincerely, Justin R. Staab Justin Staab, senior vice president of Financial Reporting 6
  • 8. Continued Improvement Dear Benefactors and Supporters of the Intrieri Family Student Managed Fund, First of all I would like to thank Aaron, the IFSMF Officers, and the Lead Analysts for putting this report together in a record time. This is an experienced, talented, and extremely capable group that will be missed. As in past quarters, the students have made significant progress in implementing a variety of initiatives that were introduced to increase the learning aspects of the fund as well as to make it as successful as pos- sible. As Aaron notes above, I am also happy to report that the fund was able to per- form at a much better level than the S&P 500 this quarter. The Fund also soundly beat the performance of the benchmark that the Fund will track moving forward. The students have been very successful in implementing the initiatives that were set out in previous quarterly reports, and that success has translated into successive quarterly performance improvements. I am especially proud of the fact that the students have now established price targets for every stock in the fund, and that only three “overvalued” stocks remain in our holdings (by our metrics). Those will be re-evaluated by the end of the semester, and we will have a small “buy” list that I will be able to use over the summer to replace stocks that hit their price targets. This semester we had several stocks hit their price targets that were only purchased earlier in the semester, which is more evidence of a job well done. This semester, three IFSMF Officers participated in the EN- GAGE Student Investment Conference in March in Detroit, MI, where students from hundreds of schools gather annually. The team submitted a ten-minute “stock pitch” video, from which twelve finalists were chosen to make their pitch in person in Detroit, and eventually a winner was chosen. Although we have some work to do to catch the win- ning team (Michigan State), our students’ presentation was very close in quality to some of the top twelve pitches. As far as new initiatives, during the summer and fall semester we will be looking for ways to expand interest in the Fund. We would like to get first– and second-year students involved in some capacity, and we would like to expand participation of Behrend MBA students. Additionally, we are hoping to continue and expand our relationships with other disciplines, including but not limited to MIS, Economics, and Accounting Clubs on campus. Finally, I am happy to welcome incoming IFSMF President Kevin Pascale and the new Lead Analysts. It should be a great semester in the fall! Please feel free to contact me at any time with questions, comments, and/or suggestions for improvement. Best Regards, Dr. Tim Krause, Faculty Advisor to the Intrieri Student Managed Fund First Quarter ReportIntrieri Fund Faculty Advisor’s Message Intrieri Family Student Managed Fund Advisor, Dr. Tim Krause 7
  • 9. MARKET ANALYSIS THE GLOBAL ECONOMY Although some domestic economies are doing better than others, the overall global economy is lacking growth. Ac- cording to the IMF, the global economy could experience a longer period of slow economic growth. The Eurozone’s GDP grew by only 0.2%, which missed expectations of 0.4% growth. Germany continues to be the leading econ- omy in the Eurozone, growing at a rate of 0.8%, beating expectations of 0.7%. On the other hand, France did not experience any significant growth, despite expectations of 0.1%. Italy and Portugal were among other countries that also suffered in economic growth in this first quarter (Business Insider). Furthermore, the euro (EUR) has sig- nificantly declined against the dollar (USD). This is due to the Eurozone’s quantitative easing (QE) program and Greece’s extreme debt problem. Also, the USD has in- creased in value due to strong 2014 Q4 economic growth, and the ending of the Fed’s QE program. The Chinese economy has also been suffering. First quar- ter estimates place China’s GDP at 6.9% growth, a 0.4% decrease from the previous quarter. Additionally, China’s GDP growth in Q1 is the slowest growth in six years (Reuters). The Central Bank is taking action in order to stimulate the economy for the next quarter, and their gov- ernment has loosened mortgage restrictions in order stim- ulate China’s housing market. China has also stated they will cut power prices and iron-ore taxes for businesses in an attempt to increase liquidity and stimulate the economy (WSJ). THE UNITED STATES ECONOMY In the first quarter of 2015, the U.S. unemployment rate continued its downward trend, ending at 5.5%, down from the 5.7% average from 2014’s Q4. Joblessness is now, according to the Fed, in the safe range of 5.2% to 5.5% that can realistically be sustained over time. The U6 un- employment rate decreased with similar improvement end- ing at 10.9% in March, despite an initial small bump to 11.3% in January 2015, and is its lowest measure since 2008. The healthy job market looks to be easily sustainable for the next quarter and beyond. In an exciting announcement following a March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Janet Yellen said that “with economic conditions improving, and with further improvement expected in the months ahead, we have again modified our forward guidance.” By dropping the word “patient” from the guidance on interest rates, the Fed opened the door to an interest rate increase, potential- ly as soon as mid-June through late-August. But historical- ly low inflation rates do not encourage the Fed’s involve- ment any time soon. The low inflation can be attributed to the after-effects of Q4’s low oil prices that contributed lower input costs for businesses and consumers. Domestic corporate profits generally appear to be increas- ing at a 5% – 10% growth rate, which will likely be fol- lowed by corresponding stock market returns. The S&P 500 generally stayed above 2000 points, with slight fluctua- tions and no major corrections for this quarter in particu- lar. The projections for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q1 2015 is a 1.4% decrease from the actual 2.2% end- ing level from Q4 2014. The U.S. trade deficit, the amount that U.S. imports ex- ceeds U.S. exports, fell dramatically from $42.7 billion in January to $35.4 billion in early April. The shrinking wage gap resulted from falling exports, with imports falling even more. The trade deficit fell to 3.2% compared to the same period last year. Also, the growing U.S. economy is likely to increase imports and the strong dollar will continue to push down exports in the coming months. Forecasters expect to see an increase in the trade deficit next quarter. The United States economy remained mid-cycle in Q1 with peaking growth and continued neutral policy measures. Thus the fund should continue under-weighting Utilities and Materials, which tend to be more sensitive to interest rates. As 2015 projections for economic growth are uncertain, capital goods producers should keep an eye on potentially decreasing GDP, particularly those in Infor- mation Technology and Industrials sectors. The harsh snowstorms and below-zero temperatures in Q1 may have contributed to the dull winter performance. The coming spring months will show whether the econo- my will pick up enough speed for the Fed officials to raise their short-term rate from its record low. Ryan Mitcheltree, senior vice president of Market Analysis Amanda Myers, vice president of Market Analysis 8
  • 10. RISK MANAGEMENT & SECTOR ANALYSIS Brooke Landram senior vice president of Risk Management Lead Analyst, Consumer Discretionary RISK MANAGEMENT ANALYSIS This quarter, the analysts of The Intrieri Family Student Managed Fund continued an emphasis on diversification and risk management within the portfolio. As noted in the last report, Justin Staab, SVP of Financial Reporting, has recently implemented a new reporting methodology that allows our analysts to better track sector and fund perfor- mance. Justin has also been working to implement better reporting automation, as well as improve various monitor- ing techniques. As Aaron noted earlier in this report, we have centralized our sector-weight benchmarking strategies. Rather than our analysts recommend sector’s weights each quarter, we began using the index weights as a basis for market neu- tral. This allows our analysts to focus on stock valuation. However, we took these weight objectives into considera- tion when making buy and sell recommendations. We also include Sharpe Ratios and Optimal Portfolio cal- culations in our analysis. We calculated the Sharpe Ratios of all of our stocks in the fund as well as the fund overall. We used these metrics in our recommendations to deter- mine if a stock’s projected performance was justified com- pared to its implied future volatility. We also used the Op- timal Portfolio calculations of all the stocks in the fund to determine if any of the stocks were highly correlated with other stocks in the fund. This metric has helped the ana- lysts recommend stocks to sell. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR Our holdings in the Consumer Discretionary sector pro- duced a return of 9.42% for the first quarter, outperform- ing the Select Sector Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY)’s return of 4.75%. The Fund currently has a weight of 13.32% in the Consumer Discretionary Sector which is comparable to the S&P 500’s 12.66% allocation. This quarter we sold Home Depot Inc. (HD) and bought Cooper Tire & Rubber Co. (CTB). We also purchased an additional 77 shares of Honda Motor Co. Ltd ADR based on a revised valuation. The top performer in the fund’s sector holdings was Cooper Tire & Rubber Co. (CTB) with a return of 16.21%. Cooper Tire & Rubber Co last posted its quarter- ly earnings results on Monday, February 23. The company reported $0.45 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $0.64, but that seemed to be priced into the stock. The company reported reve- nues of $861.00 million for the quarter, outperforming the consensus estimate of $806.66 million. The company also declared their quarterly dividend, which was paid on Fri- day, March 27. Investors of record on Wednesday, March 4th were given a dividend of $0.105 per share. This repre- sents a $0.42 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 1.09%. The stock has almost reached its price target, therefore I will be looking to reevaluate the stock and find a replacement if necessary. The bottom performer in the fund’s holdings for this sec- tor was Ford Motor Co. (F), with a return of -4.95%. Ford shares were down 2.08% to $16.22 on March 25 after the automaker announced a recall of 221,000 North American trucks and SUV’s. The recall affects recent models of the company’s ambulances, police and emergency vehicles. Ford could also be in for a prolonged labor fight this sum- mer because of a comment made by the president of the United Autoworkers Union, who claimed that the current two tier payment system was unfair .He is still under pres- sure by union members to end the second tier wages, ac- cording to Reuters. The outlook for the consumer discretionary sector is posi- tive. Consumer discretionary companies have a richer val- uation reflecting an anticipation of stronger earnings growth. Also, consumer spending is expected to rise fur- ther in parallel with continuing growth momentum in the U.S. economy. Overseas growth could also push discre- tionary spending due to the large portion of U.S. sales coming from international markets. Another factor leading to strong consumer discretionary spending is low interest rates. These low interest rates allow companies to offer stronger dividends and improve cash flows. In the future, if interest rates stay low, or rise moderately, this sector should continue to do well. 9
  • 11. SECTOR ANALYSIS BASIC MATERIALS Our holdings in Basic Materials produced a quarterly re- turn of -1.70%, underperforming the Materials Select Sec- tor SPDR ETF (XLB)’s return of 0.91%. The portfolio holdings in Basic Materials comprises of 6.48%, which is a slight increase from last quarter’s weight of 5%. Addition- ally, it is still overweight relative to the S&P 500 Index’s weight of 3.17%. This past quarter, we have attempted to look for ways to reduce the sector weight to an under- weight status. Our best performing stock was Monsanto Co (MON) with a quarterly return of -0.31%. Recently I conducted a new valuation on Monsanto, and the stock is still under- valued with room for a potential appreciation of 8.77%. However, Monsanto had poor second quarter results with missed expectations for revenues and earnings. Its corn seed and trait sales are down $2.91 billion and business sales declined 14%. As mentioned in the Q4 report, I was concerned about the impact the strong dollar and fluctuat- ing Euro could have on MON and my concerns were war- ranted. These recent currency headwinds have had a sig- nificant impact on its financial performance, and are esti- mated to reduce EPS by $0.35 to $0.40. Despite this, they are still predicted to make record annual earnings. I be- lieve this will continue to be a significant risk in the near future along with Monsanto’s move toward branded seeds. However, the consensus price target, as reported by Analyst Ratings Network, is $124.72, with a rating of HOLD. This coming quarter, I believe that we should sell half of our holdings in MON to decrease our sector weighting. Monsanto currently has the least potential ap- preciation of the Basic Materials sector holdings and com- prises 3.58% of the overall fund. The bottom performing stock in the sector was Freeport- McMoRan Inc (FCX) with a -2.22% loss since our pur- chase on February 12, 2015. We have a price target of $35.80 listed for FCX, which means its current potential appreciation is 88.92%. In line with this, the consensus price target, as reported by Analyst Ratings Network, is $31.06 an upside of 65.38% with a hold recommendation. On March 31 J.P. Morgan Chase’s commodities teams lowered 2015 and 2016 forecasts for most base metals which had a significant negative impact of FCX. JPM’s equity analyst Michael Gambardella is quoted saying “We believe that a strong dollar and weak oil prices will contin- ue to weigh on demand (and prices) for most metals at a time when Chinese growth (and metals consumption) is slowing and Russian exports are increasing.” We feel that the biggest risks FCX faces moving forward are the slow- ing short term demand for metals, and low oil prices. With FCX being the world’s largest producer of copper, with significant holdings in oil and gas resources, I believe that its poor performance is more of a reflection of a tempo- rary bad economic environment rather than a bad stock or company. According to Fidelity Research, the U.S. economy remains in the mid-cycle expansion phase of the business cycle. Historically, the Basic Materials sector typically underper- forms in this phase of the business cycle, which is in line with our initiative to decrease its weight in the fund. The sector is estimated by FactSet to have a second-quarter profit growth of 2%, down from initial expectations due to a stronger dollar hurting U.S. multinationals within the sector and low oil prices. Andrew Dylewski Lead Analyst, Basic Materials 10
  • 12. SECTOR ANALYSIS CONSUMER DEFENSIVE In the first quarter of 2015, the fund’s Consumer Staples holdings yielded a return of 15.12%, significantly outper- forming the SPDR Consumer Staples (XLP) ETF return of 1.14%. The top performing stock in the sector was Kroger (KR) with a return of 23.0%.The second leading stock was Con- stellation Brands (STZ) with a return of 17.0%. The fund sold both these stocks during the period based on our price target valuations. Kimberly-Clark Corp was the next best performing stock with a return of 1.50%. Fourth quarter net sales were down 1% YoY, and a restructuring program was started in October 2014, and their fiscal year ends December 31st. The program is intended to improve efficiency and offset overhead cost, and the company announced the construc- tion of a new distribution hub in South Dallas. The devel- opment will cost $22 million and should be completed by December 31, 2016, in order to receive tax abatement val- ued at $1.6 million. My outlook is a continuation of de- creasing net sales in 2015 stemming from spin off of healthcare. However I am intrigued by the cost savings the future will hold. Our bottom performing stock was Procter & Gamble Co. with a return of -0.36%. P&G’s net income dropped to $2.37 billion from $3.43 billion last year. This is mostly due to the continuation of a strong U.S dollar vs. other currencies, the biggest being Russia. Russia is one of P&G fastest developing subsidiaries. P&G holds ¾ of the mar- ket share in detergents, shampoos and diapers. P&G is moving towards aggressive cost cutting methods, but in a balanced way. In order to do so P&G will elimi- nate more than 4,000 jobs and cut $1 billion from their marketing budget. If done correctly this cost cutting pro- gram will improve P&G’s margins. In addition, P&G plans to build a $500 million dollar manufacturing plant in West Virginia, their second new site since 1971. The plant is expected to be in operation by 2017 and will supply 80% of the east coast with their products within one day. During the past quarter, we sold Constellation Brands and Kroger Co, as they no longer fit our investment criteria for the portfolio. Therefore, we ended with quarter with 3.49% of our portfolio allocated towards Consumer Sta- ples, underweight of the S&P 500 Index’s weight of 12.66%. In regard to our current holdings, Kimberly-Clark Corp and Proctor & Gamble are undervalued. Therefore, my top priority will be to continue to find stocks that fit our investment criteria. Paul Toma Lead Analyst, Consumer Staples 11
  • 13. SECTOR ANALYSIS ENERGY During the first quarter of the year, the portfolio’s hold- ings in the Energy sector yielded a return of -0.24%, out- performing the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) of -1.34%. As of quarter-end, 9.39% of our portfolio is com- prised of Energy stocks, which is slightly overweight rela- tive to the S&P 500 Index’s weighting of 8.07%. Oil prices continued to experience volatility over the past quarter, negatively affecting returns. We sold National Fuel Gas in February due to the stock reaching our projected price target, but continued to hold the rest and increase our holdings to market weight as we believe they will eventual- ly appreciate to their target prices when oil rebounds. The top performer in the energy sector was Halliburton Co (HAL), which yielded a 13.84% return. Halliburton is continuing to cut costs in order to complete their merger deal with Baker Hughes, which has been on track since last year’s fourth quarter. They have recently opted to sell the following businesses: Fixed Cutter/Roller Cone Drill Bits, Directional Drilling, and Logging/Measurement- While-Drilling. According to Yahoo! Finance, by selling these businesses, they are freeing up $10B in assets and will become the world’s second largest provider of oilfield services. According to Seeking Alpha, this deal is expected to close sometime during the second half of the year. This sale of assets will help the company fuel future growth, while both Baker and Halliburton continue to adjust to lower oil prices. I believe this merger will benefit Hallibur- ton in regards to growth and expansion, and its stock price is still a good long term investment. Our bottom performer was Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), which yielded a -4.48% return. According to the Street, Exxon currently has a very low debt-to-equity of 0.17, well under the industry average. This means that they have been fairly successful and managing their debt levels. Although they managed their debt very well, their reve- nues declined 22.6% over the quarter, resulting in a gross profit margin of 17.91%. While they do have some current weaknesses in profit margins and revenues, I believe they have a solid financial position, with great debt levels that will allow them to rebound in the long term. They remain the largest energy company in the sector, with a market value of $360 billion. At the end of Q1, Shell and Chevron are making huge acquisitions in the industry. Exxon is ex- pected to make one of their own going forward, which may grow their value in the coming months. I believe stocks in this sector are still very appealing this year, as energy companies still have a great chance to re- bound in the long run if they continue to cut costs and acquire other business. Our holdings in this sector have decreased in value since late last year, but this has been more in line with the rapid decline in oil prices rather than individual company performance. In fact, as the market continues to be weighed down from oil prices, many of our energy companies are becoming more efficient and cutting costs to offset losses. As of quarter-end, all of the stocks within this sector re- main undervalued by my valuation metrics, with all four of them being above 30% potential appreciation. We are at a great position within this sector and moving into Q2, it will be a major priority to pay attention to how these com- panies perform under this new environment. Conor Chadwick Lead Analyst, Energy 12
  • 14. SECTOR ANALYSIS FINANCIAL SERVICES The Financial Services sector holdings in the portfolio largely maintained their value over the first quarter with a return of -1.09%, slightly outperforming the Financial Se- lect Sector SPDR ETF’s return of -2.15%. We saw signifi- cant asset turnover, as investments we’d made in previous quarters appreciated to their intrinsic values. In fact, only one stock that we held at the beginning of the quarter is still in our portfolio at the end of the quarter. Our priority at the end of last quarter was to realize our gains on stocks that had reached their target prices and shift into equities that still had room to grow, and I am happy to say that we achieved that goal. Every stock in this sector we now hold is now significantly undervalued according to our metrics. The top performer in the Financial Services sector was Willis Group Holdings (WSH) with a holding period re- turn of 9.89% for the quarter. Willis’s stock value appreci- ated quickly following reports that they were going to beat fourth quarter earnings estimates leading up to their earn- ings call. This appreciation slowed when their financial reports came out, beating the previous estimates by one cent, but still continued on strong organic growth and an increase in dividends. This momentum carried their over- all price far beyond our target price of $40.60, and after performing an updated valuation we decided to realize our gains and shift them into a more undervalued stock. Our bottom performing stock in the first quarter was the Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) with a holding period return of -5.98%. BNS’s price had been falling for several months due to the uniquely negative financial situation that the bank found itself in over the course of 2014. Many of the bank’s international investments were dis- rupted by various disturbances abroad, and the continuing low interest rate environment severely constrained their loan income. The bank has been restructuring, writing off its troubled foreign assets and reconfiguring itself to better utilize its strengths. We purchased the stock immediately following a disappointing fourth quarter earnings call, ex- pecting the market to react quickly to the news and pro- vide us our best starting point. Unfortunately, its price continued to fall for a full week, resulting in our first quar- ter loss. That said, BNS is a very strong company with solid fundamentals, and has already shown signs of growth towards its target price. The stock has shown largely unin- terrupted growth since the end of the quarter, and the ad- dition of a dividend at the beginning of April further boosted its overall value. Given a longer time horizon, I am fully confident that the Bank of Nova Scotia will prove to be a great investment. Our portfolio weight in Financial Services has been steadi- ly increasing, towards a market weight, moving from 8.88% of the fund at the end of last quarter to 12.00% at the end of this quarter. This is still below the S&P 500 weighting of 16.28%, but we are gradually moving to in- crease our weighting with solid investments towards our benchmark. We are seeking to further diversify our hold- ings throughout the Financial Services sector, with hold- ings in large banks, loan service companies, and insurance companies. We are also currently seeking to broaden into the trading exchange sector, allowing us to capture the full breadth of value that Financial Services has to offer. I am bullish on this sector. The Financial Services Sector typically performs well with rising interest rates, and many central banks have signaled that they will allow rates to rise in the near future. Global volatility has largely depressed financial gains this quarter, but the world is moving to- wards a more stable equilibrium, and that will provide a fantastic environment for the sector to grow. We were outperform the market in this sector by choosing to invest in equities with strong fundamentals, and we are now poised to capture significant gains as the sector recovers in coming months. Joshua McAleer Lead Analyst, Financial Services 13
  • 15. SECTOR ANALYSIS HEALTH CARE The portfolio’s holdings in the Health Care sector pro- duced a quarterly return of 18.17% during the first quarter of 2015, making it the top performing sector. The hold- ings also outperformed the Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV)’s return of 6.32%. The top performer in the Health Care sector was Cigna Corp. (CI) with a 25% return. This stock represents 22% of the sector and 3% of the fund. Cigna’s performance is largely due to the large inflow of customers that are in- sured under the Affordable Care Act. Also, insurance companies are finding different ways to charge premiums, which help improve profits. Cigna also acquired QualCare Alliance Networks, Inc. on January 26, which will combine Cigna’s offered health products with QualCare’s expertise in hospital systems. They hope the acquisition will help drive innovation, affordability and value. According to our investment criteria, Cigna still remains undervalued despite this good news. The second best performing stock in Health Care was Bio- gen Inc. (BIIB) with a 24% return during the quarter. Their performance is largely due to an announcement in March that they saw positive results for a new drug in their pipeline that will help combat Alzheimer’s disease. The drug is in testing for now, but remains a great opportunity if it proves to be successful. The bottom performer in the sector was Baxter Interna- tional Inc. (BAX) with a -1.18% return during the quarter. Baxter was a new addition to our portfolio on March 3, so we hadn’t held it for more than a month before quarter- end. However, it does represent 18% of the sector. Re- cently, on March 27, Baxter announced their plans to split into two companies, which will separatee their biopharma- ceuticals business from its medical equipment business. After the news, the stock soared and has been on the rise since. We believe that with the growing age of the population, markets will increase their spending on health care, making this an opportune sector. The direction of the aging popu- lation is considered a long term trend that makes this sec- tor unique because its positive performance could remain constant into the future regardless of economic cycles. One of our areas of focus in the coming quarter is Health Care IT companies that offer the ability for consumers to compare service providers to find the lowest cost and highest quality service, right from their mobile device. This is a relatively young industry, which means there are an abundance of positive investment opportunities. The risks this sector faces are primarily political risks, such as U.S Health Care reform, and possible public scrutiny of in- creasing prescription costs, which could result in short- term price volatility. Last quarter we sought to significantly increase the weight of the Health Care sector since it had been significantly underweighted in 2013. We found several buy recommen- dations during the quarter including purchases such as, Aetna (AET), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Baxter (BAX), and the purchase of additional shares of Cigna (CI). We are currently overweight in Health Care, representing 15.84% of the fund relative to the S&P 500 weighting of 14.79%. Our goal was to have this sector at market- neutral, but the amount of growth in our holdings has slightly increased our weight. The Health Care sector has an opportunity to continue to perform well in the future. Historically, it has outperformed the market in the late stage of the business cycle. As of quarter-end, all of our holdings in this sector remain undervalued according to our investment criteria. Halyard Health Inc. (HYH) and Pfizer Inc. (PFE) are nearing their price targets, however, so their prices will be monitored closely during the up- coming quarter. Tyler Brose Senior Lead Analyst, Health Care 14 Kevin Pascale Lead Analyst, Health Care
  • 16. SECTOR ANALYSIS INDUSTRIALS The portfolio’s holdings in the Industrials sector produced a quarterly return of 1.92%, outperforming the Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI)’s return of -0.98%. The fund currently holds 14.14% of the portfolio in the Industrial Sector, which is overweight relative to the S&P 500 In- dex’s weighting of 10.28% and remains in line with our allocation objective. The top performer in this sector was FedEx Corporation (FDX), with a return of 15.08%. Recently, FedEx beat consensus earnings per share estimates of $1.88, reporting earnings per share of $2.01. This was attributed to lower fuel costs and an increase in prices, both of which drove operating margins upward. FedEx third quarter revenues were $11.7 billion, growing 4% year-over-year. In addition to low fuel costs, FedEx’s revenues have seen strong growth in all three of their primary segments: express, ground, and freight. Finally, FedEx recently acquired TNT Express after attempting an acquisition two years ago. Be- cause TNT Express is located in Europe, FedEx was able to take advantage of the lower euro, which contributed to its performance this past quarter. The bottom performer in the fund was General Electric (GE), with a return of negative -8.95%. Recently General Electric announced plans to sell their finance and real es- tate business units. This is so they can begin refocusing the company on its core manufacturing business, which serves the aviation, energy, and healthcare markets. In this busi- ness decision, they plan on selling $26.5 billion worth of real estate assets. GE also plans on bringing back $36 bil- lion in cash that currently resides overseas. After the an- nouncement, GE’s stock price soared, which will more than likely be reflected in the next quarterly returns. The company’s revenue was $42 billion for the quarter which was slightly less than the consensus estimate of $42.2 bil- lion. Recently, the Industrials sector’s performance has been slightly negative due to a decline in durable goods purchas- es. This has also negatively affected the manufacturing sector throughout the United States. This past quarter, we have aspired to slightly decrease our holdings, yet still maintain an overweight position in the sector, as it typical- ly outperforms during this phase of the business cycle. Abby Luke Lead Analyst, Industrials 15
  • 17. SECTOR ANALYSIS Justin Staab Lead Analyst, Information Technology Lead Analyst, Telecommunications INFORMATION TECHOLOGY The portfolio’s holdings in the Information Technology produced a 1.90% quarterly return, outperforming the Information Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK)’s return of 1.05%. By the end of the first quarter, our portfolio held a 22.5% sector weight, considerably overweight the S&P 500 Index weight of 19.59%. The top performing stock in our holdings was Apple Inc. (APPL), with a return of 13.15%. Apple is an American multinational company, and is the largest publicly traded corporation in the world by market capitalization. Apple sells computer electronics, computer software, online ser- vices, and personal computers. On January 27, Apple posted its fiscal 2015 first quarter earnings, announcing a record $18 billion profit. Greater sales in China, the intro- duction of new Macintosh hardware, and higher than ex- pected iPad sales contributed to Apple’s performance this quarter. After the earnings announcement, I performed a new valuation of the company, and still find it to be signif- icantly undervalued with a price target of $143.00. The bottom performing stock in this sector was Microsoft Corp (MSFT), with a return of -11.70%. Microsoft is the largest software company in the world, and offers an array of products including software, consumer electronics, and services. The poor performance of Microsoft can be at- tributed to an estimated 5.2% drop in Windows PC sales. According to IDC’s count, Windows PC makers shipped the lowest quarterly number in six years. Microsoft is cur- rently developing their new operating system, Windows 10, which is expected to better integrate with their tablets and desktops than prior versions. The Information Technology sector has historically out- performed in a rising interest rate environment. Many be- lieve that his can be contributed to that information tech- nology companies don’t maintain a high level of debt on their balance sheets, leaving them relatively unaffected. When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, I believe the outlook for the Information Technology sector re- mains positive. TELECOMMUNICATIONS Our holding in the Telecommunications produced a quar- terly return of -4.19 underperforming the Telecommunica- tion Services Sector SPDR ETF (XLT)’s return of 1.62%. By the end of the first quarter, the fund held a 2.11% sec- tor weight in Telecommunications, which is market- neutral relative to the S&P 500 Index’s weight of 2.32%. With merger concerns between Time Warner and Com- cast, supported by the fact that the stock no longer fit our investment criteria, we elected to sell our holdings in Comcast on February 19, and replace the funds with BCE Inc. (BCE) - commonly referred to as Bell Canada. BCE is a Canadian telecommunications and media company, which offers services in voice, wireless, television, and in- ternet access. Since our purchase, Bell has depreciated by 4.53%. Bell’s poor performance could be attributed to its president attempting to manipulate news coverage in Can- ada. However, BCE’s president recently stepped down at the end of the first quarter. The Telecommunications sector’s outlook is promising for the remainder of the year. A Global Mobile Consumer survey showed that consumers have shown a 19% increase in internet streaming services in the past year. Additional- ly, in the United States, 4G wireless networks could ac- count for more than $150 billion in GDP growth over the next few years. With the continued rise of the Internet, new products are attempting to connect with broadband connections, which will lead to increased demand for companies within the telecommunications sector. 16
  • 18. SECTOR ANALYSIS UTILITIES The Student Managed Fund’s Utilities Sector for the first quarter yielded a 1.72% return, which is lower return rela- tive to last quarter. However, the Fund’s Utilities sector significantly outperformed the Utilities sector ETF (XLU), which yielded a -5.16% return for Q1. Due to changes in the market, specifically interest rates, the Fund has elected to maintain an underweight position in Utilities, due to the tendency for Utilities stocks to underperform in rising in- terest rate environments. Although interest rates are un- likely to have an intense lift-off, a gradual increase in inter- est rates is reason enough to underweight the Utilities sec- tor. Duke Energy (DUK) was the Fund’s top performer last quarter and was sold when it reached its price target dur- ing the first quarter. The realized quarterly return for DUK was 4.87%. DUK’s stock was on a steady decline for several weeks, so I performed a revaluation of DUK, and found that it no longer fit into our internal investment criteria. We are still watching DUK for another potential entry point to have it added back into the Fund. Aside from selling DUK, the AES Corporation (AES) and Exelon Corporation (EXC) saw poor performance during the period as well, suffering a 7% loss during the quarter. However, both valuations still show signs of potential ap- preciation. The Fund will continue to hold these stocks because of the potential appreciation, but we will remain cognizant of both AES and EXC. Both of our current positions have significant potential appreciations. As students arrive for the fall semester, the Utilities analyst should examine how the sector is perform- ing and, at that point, re-evaluate and make changes to the holdings accordingly. Ryan Mitcheltree Lead Analyst, Utilities 17
  • 19. If you would like to contribute to the growth of the Intrieri Family Student Managed Fund, please contact the Black School of Business at: Phone: 814-898-6173 Intrieri Family Student Managed Fund END NOTE 18
  • 20. PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS 19 Intrieri Family Student Managed Fund Portfolio Holdings as of March 31, 2015