The Washington-based lender expects the developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region,
which includes China, to grow 6.7 percent in each of 2015 and 2016, down from 6.9 percent
growth in 2014. That's down from its previous forecast in October of 6.9 percent growth this
year and 6.8 percent in 2016. China's growth is likely to slow due to policies aimed at putting
its economy on a more sustainable footing and tackling financial vulnerabilities, the World
Bank said in its latest East Asia and Pacific Economic Update report on Monday.
4. ✍ MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ World Bank cuts growth forecast, warns of risks to outlook
The Washington-based lender expects the developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region,
which includes China, to grow 6.7 percent in each of 2015 and 2016, down from 6.9 percent
growth in 2014. That's down from its previous forecast in October of 6.9 percent growth this
year and 6.8 percent in 2016. China's growth is likely to slow due to policies aimed at putting
its economy on a more sustainable footing and tackling financial vulnerabilities, the World
Bank said in its latest East Asia and Pacific Economic Update report on Monday.
✍ China's March exports shrink 15% y/y in surprise fall
China's export growth contracted 15 percent in March from a year earlier in a surprise drop that
will exacerbate concerns about the slackening Chinese economy. Analysts had expected exports
to rise 12 percent in March on a yearly basis. In a sign of soft domestic demand, imports into
the world's second-biggest economy also shrunk 12.7 percent last month compared with a year
ago, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.
✍ BASE METAL
✍ COPPER
Copper for May delivery was up 0.25% at $2.742 a pound.In addition to trade, copper traders
are looking ahead to a raft of chinese economic data in the week ahead, including reports on
first quarter gross domestic product, as well as data on industrial production.
The Asian nation is the world's largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world
consumption last year. A few Bank of Japan board members expressed the view that the BoJ
must pay closer attention to developments in the Japanese government bond market and the
impact of an aggressive easing policy, according to minutes from the March policy meeting
released Monday showed. "A few members pressed the view that, in pursing QQE, it was
important to carefully assess the mechanism of price formation in the JGB (Japanese
government bond) market as well as examine and compare the positive effects and side effects
of JGB purchases," the minutes showed.
5. ✍ BULLION
✍ Gold holds above $1,200, but US rate hike worries weigh
Gold steadied above USD 1,200 an ounce on Monday after rising more than 1 percent in a
chart-based rebound the session before, but persistent concern that the US central bank is on
course to lift rates this year should cap any gains.
Federal Reserve official Jeffrey Lacker repeated on Friday his call for the US central bank to
consider hiking interest rates in June, and said there was no shame in adjusting them lower
again if economic data demanded it.
Demand in No. 2 gold consumer China remained tepid with the premium on physical gold on
the Shanghai Gold Exchange at just above a dollar over the global spot benchmark on Monday
from a small discount late on Friday. The state-run Shanghai Gold Exchange said it was
working on launching new price benchmark fixing products. Sources said in February that the
bourse would launch a yuan-denominated gold fix this year as China, the world's top gold
producer, seeks to gain more of a say over pricing.
ENERGY
✍ Crude oil futures rally $1 as China stimulus bets fuel risk appetite -
Crude oil futures rallied sharply on Monday, as disappointing Chinese trade data added to
speculation that policymakers in Beijing may implement further stimulus measures. On the ICE
Futures Exchange in London, brent oil for June delivery jumped $1.19, or 2.02%, to trade at
$60.14 a barrel during European morning hours. On Friday, London-traded Brent prices rose
$1.26, or 2.18%, to settle at $58.95.
China reported a trade surplus of $3.08 billion in March, compared to expectations for a surplus
of $45.4 billion and down from a surplus of $60.6 in February. Exports tumbled 15.0% from a
year earlier last month, disappointing expectations for a 12.0% increase, while imports sank
12.7%, worse than forecasts for a decline of 11.7%. The slide in imports pointed to persistent
weakness in the economy, fuelling speculation policymakers will do more to boost growth.
China is the world's second largest oil consumer after the U.S. and has been the engine of
strengthening demand.Meanwhile, the spread between the Brent and the WTI crude contracts
stood at $7.35 a barrel, compared to $7.31 by close of trade on Friday.
Oil prices have been well-supported in recent sessions amid speculation an ongoing collapse in
6. rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. will result in lower production.Market players have been paying
close attention to the shrinking rig count in recent months for signs it will eventually reduce the
glut of crude flowing into the market.
✍ NATURAL GAS
Natural gas futures fell to the lowest level in almost three years on Friday, amid speculation the
end of the winter heating season will bring warmer temperatures throughout the U.S. and cut
into demand for the fuel.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas for delivery in May hit an intraday low of
$2.504 per million British thermal units on Friday, the weakest level since June 2012, before
closing at $2.511, down 1.7 cents, or 0.67%.
Futures were likely to find support at $2.459 per million British thermal units, the low from
June 18, 2012, and resistance at $2.646, the high from April 9. On Thursday, prices plunged 9.1
cents, or 3.47%, after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said that natural gas storage
in the U.S. rose by 15 billion cubic feet last week, compared to expectations for a gain of 11
billion and following a withdrawal of 18 billion cubic feet in the preceding week.
Supplies fell by 8 billion cubic feet in the same week last year, while the five-year average
change is a decline of 2 billion cubic feet. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 1.476 trillion
cubic feet as of last week, 79% above year-ago levels and 10.5% below the five-year average
for this time of year.
✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ NCDEX may provide technical assistance to Myanmar Commodity Exchange
National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), India’s largest agricentric
commodity futures trading platform, might ink a pact with Myanmar International Commodity
Exchange (MICEX). Under the tie up, NCDEX will provide technical assistance MICEX
“India has successfully developed a transparent commodity market over the last 10 years with
state of the art trading mechanism. Approached NCDEX seeking technical assistance from
them so that our exchange can also be established and trading activities commenced effectively.
The recently launched MICEX is pioneered by one of India’s largest commodities trading firm
Pearl Group. MICEX has been looking for extensive participation from Indian firms to exploit
hidden opportunities in Myanmar. Meanwhile, MICEX signed a memorandum of
understanding (MoU) with LTC Commercial company Pvt Ltd, a Jaipur-based warehousing and
7. collateral management service provider which has 10 million tonnes of warehousing space
under it.
LTC is one of the pioneer warehousing company in india and accrediated Warehouse Service
Provider of NCDEX with around Rs 2,000 crore worth of agri commodities stored under it.
✍ Chana gains by 0.7% on surging demand
Rising demand and expectations of a lower output pushed upchana prices further 0.70% to Rs
3,892 per quintal in futures market on friday as speculators widened their positions. At National
Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), chana for delivery in April advanced Rs 27,
or 0.70%, to Rs 3,892 per quintal with an open interest of 67,470 lots.
Similarly, the commodity for delivery in May traded higher by Rs 9, or 0.23%, at Rs 3,872 per
quintal in 1,47,270 lots. We can say that besides rising demand in the spot market, hopes of a
lower output due to unseasonal rains in growing regions put upward pressure on chana prices at
the futures trade.
✍ Refined soya oil slips 0.61% on profit-booking
Refined soya oil prices fell 0.61 per cent at Rs 598.80 per 10 kg in futures trade on friday as
speculators booked profits at prevailing levels amid fall in demand in the spot market.
Adequate stock position in the physical market on higher supplies from producing belts also put
pressure on prices. At National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for
delivery in April eased Rs 3.70, or 0.61 per cent, to Rs 598.80 per 10 kg with an open interest
of 30,950 lots. The June contract shed Rs 3.10, or 0.54 per cent, to Rs 567.90 per 10 kg in
1,21,700 lots. The fall in refined soya oil futures to profit-booking by speculators at existing
levels and low demand in the spot market.
✍ Jeera gains 0.58% on spot demand
Jeera prices moved up by 0.58 per cent to Rs 16,460 per quintal in futures trade on thursday,
tracking a firm trend at spot market on pick-up in demand. Besides, restricted supplies from
producing belts in the physical market supported the upside. At the National Commodity and
Derivatives Exchange, jeera for delivery in April rose by Rs 95, or 0.58 per cent to Rs 16,460
per quintal with an open interest of 5,436 lots. The May contract gained Rs 75, or 0.45 per cent
to Rs 16,785 per quintal in 13,338 lots. The rise in jeera futures to pick-up in demand in the
spot market amid restricted supplies from producing belts.
8. ✍ India seeks to export Soybean, Pulses to Australia
India on Thursday expressed the desire to export pulses, oil seeds and nuts to Australia. The
government told a visiting delegation that India is in a position to export cake of soybeans,
soybeans, cashewnuts, chickpeas, coconut, coconut oil, ginger, grapes, groundnuts, lentils,
oranges and vegetables. Mohanbhai Kundariya, Minister of State for Agriculture, urged the
Australian delegation led by Colin Barnett, Premier of Western Australia, to consider importing
these commodities from India. During the discussion with the delegation from Australia,
Kundariya mentioned about Australia’s high efficient agriculture sector with expertise and
technology to support agricultural productivity across a range of areas. The Indian Minister said
India would like to collaborate with Australia in the areas of logistics, in particular cold chains
and warehousing, agriculture processing in particular horticulture and fisheries and productivity
enhancement. The Australia team invited the officials from Minister of Agriculture to visit
Australia and study the model of working for storage of food grains, logistic.
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